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استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بمحصول الرز في بعض مناطق الوسط والجنوب في العراق == Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict Rice Production In Some Middle And South Areas In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2014

Author name: عدويه حسن يوسف الطائي
Supervisor name: غفران اسماعيل كمال
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذا البحث تم ايجاد الانموذج الافضل لانتاجية محصول الرز للمحافظات ( ذي قار - النجف - القادسية - المثنى - ميسان ) خلال المدة ( 1969 - 2014 ) باستعمال نماذج بوكس جنكنز(Box - Jenkins) ومن ثم التنبؤ بانتاجية الرز, حيث تم فحص وتشخيص بيانات السلسلة الزمنية من | The research aims to find the best model the agricultural production of crop for some Iraqi governorates ( Najaf - Qadisiya - Maysan - DhiQar - Muthanna ) during the period ( 1969 - 2014 ) applying Statistical methods used in forecasting time series models as Box - Jenkins method, of tests to identify the existence of stationary,estimation has been studied and included the using of maximum likelihood estimation method, as well as studying the Diagnostic checking using a number of tests to define the scope of models relevancy that has been estimated for the data examined by depend on confidence interval test and Ljung and Box ,then forecasting for the production of rice crop for the years ( 2015 - 2025 ) , chosen for the province of Najaf and Qadisiya is ARIMA ( 1 , 1 , 1 ) , while the model chosen for the provinces ( DhiQar, Muthanna , Maysan ) is the AR ( 1 ) , by depend on Akaike information criterion (AIC), Hannan Quinn information criterion (H - Q),The significance of the estimated parameters of the model.

استعمال بعض الاساليب الاحصائية للتنبؤ بانتاج محصول الشلب في العراق للمدة (2025 - 2016) == Some Use Statistical Methods To Predict The Yield of Rice Production In Iraq (2016 - 2025)

Author name: عبير محمود جاسم
Supervisor name: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد القطاع الزراعي من القطاعات المهمة في عملية البناء الاقتصادي والاجتماعي في بلدان العالم المختلفة وان على الزراعة ان تسد حاجة السكان من الغذاء حتى يتحقق الامن الغذائي.ويعد محصول الشلب من المحاصيل الصيفية المهمة التي تزرع في المناطق المروية من وسط وجنوب | The agricultural sector of the important sectors in the process of economic and social reconstruction in the different countries of the world and on agriculture to meet the needs of the population of food so food security is achieved. The rice crop of the important summer crops grown in irrigated areas of central and southern Iraq, one of the important crops in food intake in Iraq depends upon the Iraqi individual in the food and meals. This research aims to predict the production of rice crop in Iraq for the period (from 2016 to 2025) through the time - series models using the Box and Jenkins models, which requires diagnosing the appropriate model and appropriate grade for this model to represent the phenomenon studied and based on annual data for the period analyzed (from 1975 to 2015), which was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. After analyzing the data using statistical software gretl and address some of the problems that could have exposed the data and obtain the appropriate models to represent the production of rice, and in the model of the time series were tested stability of the chain in terms of both the contrast and the Mediterranean have shown results of the analysis after the trade - offs between Box and Jenkins models for series production of rice the adoption of standard Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the standard Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) and standard Hannan - Quinn (H - Q) to be after that model representative for the production of rice crop in Iraq is ARIMA (2,1,2) and test the independence of the wrong paradigm and then predict for the years (2016 - 2025).

استعمال التحليل العنقودي لبيان تغير نمط الانفاق في العراق للسنوات (1971 - 2010)

Author name: عبير عباس ناصر
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الانفاق احد اهم المتغيرات الاقتصادية الاساسية وذلك لارتباطه بمتغيرات اقتصادية اخرى كالانتاج والادخار والدخل والاستثمار حسب مفهوم النظرية الاقتصادية اذ ان ارتفاع مستوى الانفاق يؤدي الى انخفاض مستوى الادخار ومعدلات الاستثمار والانتاجية والدخل، وبحثنا | The spending one of the most important variables and that is related to other economic variables such as production, income, saving and investment rates, productivity and incomes , we discussed this chang shows the spending pattern of families on key goods and services during the period (1971 - 2010) in the years where date are available ,so touched on the reality of living standards for families in Iraq by offering stylish rates on good and services(nine variable according to the system of national accounts) and on the levels(both urban and rural, urban only, rural only)during the period for the purpose of knowing how spending patterns change up or down, have been analyzed on the basis of thes ratios homogeneity or convergence in spending between years using cluster analysis hierarchy in three different wayse (the way the middle, the way the closest ,how far)and clarification of thes percentages in the graph at the level of years each service key once (to see the change in the pattern of spending on the services each during the time period) and at the level of basic services per year again(to see the change in the spending on different services per year)which may help to develop future plans for the advancement of thes families to decent life for these families.

تشخيص وفحص مدى الملاءمة لنماذج السلاسل الزمنية المختلطة ذات الرتب الدنيا == Identification And Diagnostic Checking For Low Order Mixed Models

Author name: عبيد محمود محسن الزوبعي
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تمثل الهدف ببحث مرحلتي التشخيص Identification وفحص مدى الملاءمة Diagnostic checking للنماذج المختلطة ARMA ذات الرتب الدنيا في مجال الزمن Time Domain وفي مجال التكرار Frequency Domain والمقارنة بين ادوات التشخيص ومعايير اختيار الرتبة واختبارات فحص مدى المل | The aim of this work is to study the two stages of identification and diagnostic checking of mixed models (ARMA) with low orders of time domain and frequency domain.The methodology of research had tackled in balanced way both the theoretical part (by using statistical theory) and experimental part (by using simulation). The thesis consisted of five chapters in addition to introduction. The first chapter contained the basic concepts of time series, stationary, mixed models with low orders and analysis tools for time domain and frequency domain.The second chapter included the identification stage as it contained the identification tools and selection criteria for models order.Also it included asggestion for two new methods of identification and anew criterion for order determination. The third chapter tackled the diagnostic checking by using a group of tests depending on time domain and frequency domain.Also it included viewing of some other aspects in time series analysis in order to open new avenues which could be traded by other researchers.The fourth chapter contained the experimental part by applying what had been depicted in previous chapters on mixed models (ARMA(1,1)), (ARMA(1,0)) and (ARMA(0,1)) and then to find out comparisions between identification tools, order selection criteria and diagnostic checking tests through giving different values of the parameters [?1,?1] and for different sizes of series and by iterating the experiments (1000) times.It had been arrived at some conclusions and recommendations which were consisting the fifth chapter

التنبؤ بحركة الطرود البريدية الصادرة والواردة باستعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز == Forecasting The Movement of Incoming And Outcoming Postal Parcels Using Box - Jenkins Models

Author name: عباس دوين عنكوش
Supervisor name: اسماء غالب جابر الراوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان للتنبؤ دورا مهما وبارزا في عملية اتخاذ القرارات التي ترسم مسار الادارات والهيئات لما له من نتائج ذات فاعلية لاحتوائه على مجموعة من الطرائق والاساليب الاحصائية ومنها طرائق تحليل السلاسل الزمنية واسلوب بوكس وجينكز احدها والذي يعتمد على ت | There is no doubt that prediction has an important and prominent role in the decision - making process, which charts the course departments and agencies, because of its effective results, which has it contains a set of methods and techniques (statistical and Mathematical), and one of this techniques is (Box - Jenkins) modes Postal parcels are stacked goods, its weight might be bigger than small packages. Postal parcels are specified in kilograms, and it doesn’t weight more than twenty - kilogram, and wrapped securely, its also doesn’t contain personal documents. This research aims to predict the movement of incoming and outcoming postal parcels through the modeling of the data used by using (Box - Jenkins) models, and for the time period from January (2009) to December (2014). This research, made a time - series analysis to the Weights and the numbers of sent and received postal parcels, therefore, the best model have been chosen depending on the appropriate trade - offs used standards, and the test results showed that the best model of the four series is ARIMA (0,1,1), depending on the trade - offs standards (MDL), (SBC), (HQ), and upon these results, the conclusions and recommendations were made

حساسية نموذج مباراة تفاضلية == The Sensitivity of Diffential Game Model

Author name: عايدة زاوين ارشاكيان
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

المويجات الهندسية المكيفة وتطبيقاتها في ازالة التشويش للصور الرقمية == Adaptive Geometrical Wavelets And Their Applications In Digital Image De - Noising

Author name: عامر محمد نوري المهداوي
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تختلف الاهمية النسبية للمعلومات المرئية المحتواة في الصور. اذ ان البحوث الحديثة في فسلجة الرؤية اثبتت بان الدماغ البشري يتحسس لحواف مكونات الصورة بالدرجة الاولى، اما الانسجة فتاتي بالدرجة الثانية من الاهمية. دفع هذا الامر العديد من الباحثين في حقل المعالج | The importance of visual information contains in images are relatively deferent. Recent researches in psychology of vision have proven that human brain senses the edges of image objects in the first order, where image textures comes in the second order of importance. This problem had motivated researchers in the field of image processing towards finding new efficient methods that work on eliminating less important visual information which gives as a result a brief description containing the most important information. This description serves two domains : the first one is image compression, where it is possible to reduce the amount of data used in representation, which helps in reducing the required transmission time and also needs less storage size. The second one is image denoising, by reducing the importance of noisy data which helps in eliminating the noise, or at least compress its effect.Recently, it has become evident that separable transforms, such as wavelets, are not necessarily best suited for image representation due to their disability of catching line discontinuities that represent the objects edges, which make them unsuitable in giving adequate description for deferent geometrical shapes of these edges. This led to the appearance of the geometrical wavelets which has been proven its superior to nearly all of the classical wavelets in giving higher specific approximations and much more economical in data size of the image. These functions are non - separable and they are divided into two parts : adaptive functions and non - adaptive functions.This dissertation focuses on studying the first and most important function of the family of adaptive geometrical wavelets functions, the one called wedgelets, in addition to propose generalizations to it in order to make it more flexible in catching deferent curved shapes of image edges, which improves its performance in providing much more specific approximations depending on less number of coefficients. This work emphasizes basically in image denoising. And in order to increase the applicable importance of these functions, it has been suggested two methods to estimate the noise level that effects the image, and eventually choosing the best approximation according to this estimation.Finally, a comparison is made between the proposed approximation methods and the classical ones by applying on several tested images that have deferent properties, through the simulation of exposing them with deferent levels of noise. The results of this comparison shows good size of improvement in the performance achieved by the addition of these proposed functions.

استخدام مرشح الموجة الصغيرة المتقطعة في تحليل السلسلة الزمنية AR (1) ومقارنته مع مرشحات اخرى == Using Discrete Wavelets Filter In Analysis of Time Series AR(1) And Comparison With Other Filters

Author name: طه حسين علي الزبيدي
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذه الاطروحة معالجة مشكلة الضوضاء (او التلوث) الذي يمكن ان تتعرض له مشاهدات السلسلة الزمنية باستخدام مرشحات الموجة الصغيرة والاعتماد على تحليل المعلومات من خلال التردد فضلا عن الزمن مقارنة مع تحليل فورير الذي يحلل المعلومات عن طريق التردد فقط مهم | This Thesis deals with the problem of Noise (or Contamination) which may encounter the time series data using Wavelet Filters and depending on the information analysis through the frequency in addition to the time compared to Fourier Analysis which analyze the information through the frequency only omitting the time factor, this was performed through the use of Discrete Wavelet Transformation as a filter to clean the data from the contamination or the noise factors by direct or with some kinds Thresholding , and then Estimate the First - order Autoregressive Model for the filtered time series observations and compare the results with what results from the use of time series observations that are contaminated and filtered by using Wiener and Kalman filters depending on some statistical Criterias, which are The Mean Square Prediction Error, Final Prediction Error, and The Mean Absolute Prediction Error.This study presents the suggested method as well, that depends on the Wavelet as Input for The Artificial Neural Network, and then use the outputs of this Network to Estimate The First - order Autoregressive Model to the time series observations that are filtered, and compare the results with the Classical Method - Neural Network, Haar Wavelet, and Daubechies Filters of the directs from second order and which used with Soft, Mid, and Hard Thresholding by depending on the statistical Criterias given before through using the simulation experiments in addition to use real data represents time series observations of sunspots, and in order to perform this analysis the researcher designed the required computer codes by using MATLAB Language.

مقارنة بعض الطرائق الحصينة في تحليل الارتباط القويم الخطي باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Robust Methods In Linear Canonical Correlation Analysis of Simulation Used With Practical Application

Author name: طارق عزيز صالح
Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تبرز اهمية الحاجة الى طرائق تقدير كفء والتي تسمى بالطرائق الحصينة (Robust Methods) عندما تكون بيانات الظاهرة المدروسة ملوثة، او وجود شواذ في المشاهدات، والتي ينتج بسببها مقدرات تؤدي الى زيادة او نقصان في متوسط مربعات الخطا (MSE) مما يؤدي الى استدلال احص | The important of the necessity to my efficient estimation methods, which are called the robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated, it means the observations contains outliers,which may produce estimators which result in increasing (decreasing) in the (MSE), That would leads to an inaccurate statistical inference. From this point was the good behind this research in reaching robust estimators of canonical correlation analysis that can be achieved through the study of some robust methods such as (estimators - M, estimators - MVE, estimators - MCD and estimators - S).for the failure of the classical methods of estimation of canonical correlation analysis at containing data on the ratio contamination (outliers), that leads to the derivation of incorrect covariance matrix consequently to correlation matrix and a series of relations between the incorrect variables. Therefore the robust methods were used in the calculate of covariance matrix which would lead to robust matrices to robust canonical correlation analysis.In order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was divided into four chapters.The first chapter included the introduction, purpose of search and review of literature, the second chapter tackled the theoretical aspect of the robust methods in canonical correlation analysis as well as some of the important concepts, the third chapters deals with the application aspect in which tow types of applied studies were made, The first one uses the simulation method to compare among the studied methods of estimation in canonical correlation analysis and detect the best of the estimator depending on the two statistical measurements bias mean and mean square error which renders the minimum MSE of canonical correlation analysis, the second study uses the truthful data to verity the performance in a practical actuality.Finally, the fourth chapter included the conclusion, recommendations to which the researcher has arrived. In general it is regarded that MCD estimator is the best in the estimation of canonical correlation analysis in comparison with the other studied methods of estimation.

التنبؤ باعداد طلبة المدارس في محافظة بغداد لغاية 2024 == Forecasting Numbers of School Students In Baghdad Province Up To 2024

Author name: صهيب اسماعيل عبد اللطيف
Supervisor name: اسماء نجم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: جميعنا يعلم ان التعليم يبدا من خلال مراحل متعددة والتي تشكل سلسلة زمنية يمكن الاستفادة منها والتنبؤ بها من اجل تحسين وتطوير هذا القطاع المهم, مما لاشك فيه ان للتنبؤ دورا مهما وبارزا في عملية اتخاذ القرارات التي ترسم مسار الادارات والهيئات لما له من نتا | We all know that education starts through multiple stages, which constitute a time series that can be tapped and predictable in order to improve and develop this important sector.There is no doubt that to predict an important and prominent role in the decision - making process that paint departments and agencies track because of its ineffective results, because it contains a range of methods and statistical methods, including the methods, time series analysis and style Box and Jenkins, one of them, which depends on the time series of the phenomenon being studied analysis to provide the so - called autoregressive moving averages models characterized that methodology that can predict the data that appear in the future, based on time series data of interest in the past.The research aims to predict the numbers of school students, and educational supplies to the province of Baghdad, using the best model among the Box _ Jenkins models.The most research data numbers, primary and secondary school students in the province of Baghdad and for the period from 1969 until 2014, equivalent to (45) Show, which build a better model was to predict the numbers of students for both phases (primary, secondary), where the researcher found a better specimen prediction for primary school students was the specimen is ARIMA (1,1,3) the best specimen for secondary students is ARIMA (1,1,0) and through a table predictive values for each of the primary and secondary enables the researcher to assess the educational supplies by developments in the preparation of students increase according to the regulations and instructions of the Ministry of Education.Search was divided into four chapters shows the first chapter introduction research and objective of the research and review Reference The second chapter took the theoretical aspect of identifying the theoretical bases of Box_cengnz models in time - series analysis of either the third quarter included the practical side.Was estimated (the number of people to primary and secondary education, the number of primary and secondary schools, the number of teachers, number of teachers, the number of supervisors, the number of supervisors specialists, the number of school trips, the number of books for primary and secondary).The fourth chapter and the latter is for the conclusions and recommendations reached by the researcher that benefit the sound development of plans for the advancement of the educational sector

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة والمعولية لانموذج ريلي للفشل لبيانات تامة وبيانات تحت المراقبة من النوع الاول باستخدام المحاكاة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods of Parameter And Reliability of Rayleigh Failure Model For A Complete Data And Type One Censored Data By Using Simulation

Author name: صبا صباح احمد الجميلي
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعرض الكثير من الباحثين الى انموذج ويبل للفشل (Weibull Failure Model) وتطبيقاته المختلفة كونه احد نماذج الفشل الشائعة الى جانب اهميته في حقل المعولية واختبارات الحياة. فـي هـذا البحث تـم تقديـر معلمــة القياس ودالـة المعوليـة لانموذج ريلـي للفشـل (Rayle | Weibull Failure Model and its different applications have been studied by many researchers, since it is one of the well known failure models in addition to its importance in the reliability field and life tests.This research estimated the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh Failure Model, which is one of the well known failure model in the reliability field and life tests and the signal analysis.The research focused on the comparison between some of the well known estimation methods (classical and Bayesian) for the scale parameter and reliability function of this model by using the Maximum likelihood, Moments, White and Standard Bayes estimation methods.The methodology of the research depends on theoretical study, the methods of classical and Bayesian estimation has been determined elaborately to arrive to the estimations forms of reliability.Also this research depends on an experimental study by designing number of simulation experiments using various values of parameters and sample sizes, this experiment replicated to get high homogeny for the comparison among the estimation methods.Two kinds of data are used in the research : 1 - Complete Data.2 - Time - Censored Data. The researcher suggested two Bayesian methods for estimation in case of complete data; the first is a loss function obtained by compressing the well known square loss function which called it (The Compressed Bayes Method), and the second is a prior function which is called (The Developed Bayes Method). The comparison between the two proposed methods is done to show the effect of Bayesian estimator, then a comparison done between the best proposed methods with the best well known methods to show which estimator is the more accurate to be used for estimation the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh failure model.The results of these experiments show that White method is the best from the other methods which are used in this research in estimating the scale parameter and reliability function, and the results show that the proposed Compressed Bayes method is better than the Standard Bayes and the Maximum Likelihood methods, while the proposed Developed Bayes method verified that it is better than the Moment method in estimating the scale parameter and the reliability function; and better than the Maximum Likelihood estimation method in estimating the reliability function, and using any of the proposed methods (Compressed Bayes, Developed Bayes) is better than the Standard Bayes method. In case of censored data the simulation experiments proved that the Maximum Likelihood estimation method is better than the Standard Bayes estimation method. A comparison of preference estimation methods is done by using the two standards; Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

تاثير تغير اسعار النفط على موازنة العراق العامة للفترة (2003 - 2014) == The Effect of Changes of Oil Prices By The General Budget For Iraq On Duration (2003 - 2014)

Author name: شيماء محمد احمد
Supervisor name: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر الايرادات النفطية والمتمثلة (بايرادات النفط الخام، ايرادات النفط المحلي ) والايرادات غير النفطية والمتمثلة (ايرادات الصناعة والزراعة والتجارة والضرائب وغيرها من الايرادات عدا الايرادات النفطية ) مصادر ممولة لايرادات الموازنة العامة في العراق, حيث ان | It considers oil revenues and of (crude oil revenues, domestic oil revenues) and non - oil revenues and of (industry, agriculture, trade, taxes and other revenue excluding oil revenues, revenues) funded sources of revenue for the general budget in Iraq, where the drop in oil prices has a major impact on oil revenues and therefore It affected the general budget revenues because it is almost entirely dependent on oil revenues. Using multiple linear regression was estimated statistical model for the general budget revenues practically using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (Spss( to see the spirits of each variable and finding the predicted values for the model of the general budget revenue estimates for the period) from 2003 to 2014 (where it was found by the estimates of the budget deficit revenue values public due to lower oil prices.

استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ باعداد التلاميذ المقبولين في الصف الاول الابتدائي في العراق للفترة (1969 - 2012) == Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict The Numbers of Pupils Admitted To The First - Grader In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2012)

Author name: شيماء ابراهيم خليل
Supervisor name: هاني عبد الله حسن
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد التنبؤ بالسلوك المستقبلي للسلاسل الزمنية من الموضوعات الهامة في العلوم الاحصائية ولذلك فان التنبؤ بعدد التلاميذ المقبولين في الصف الاول الابتدائي في العراق يحتل مكانة هامة باعتبار الاتاحة الشاملة للتعليم الابتدائي لاطفال العالم تعد واحدة من الاهداف ال | The prediction of future behavior of the time series of important topics in science statistical therefore predict the number of students admitted to the first grade in Iraq occupies an important position as universal access to primary education for the children of the world is one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG'S) and goals of " A World Fit Children's " (WFFC).Data were collected for research, which represents the number of students admitted to the first - grader in Iraq for the period (1969 - 2012) of the Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation - Central Bureau of Statistics has been introduced into the statistical program spss version 18.In this research was the comparison between the two methods to predict which way each of the Box and Jenkins methods Exponential Smoothing to know the best way to predict based on the criteria (MAPE and BIC) where the method has proved its superiority to Exponential Smoothing way box - Jenkins

مقدرات الامكان الاعظم الموزونة الحصينة ومقارنتها مع طرائق اخرى لانموذج اللوجستك مع تطبيق عملي == Robust Weighted Maximum Likelihood Estimates And Their Comparsion With Other Methods of Logistic Model With Practical Application

Author name: شرين علي حسين
Supervisor name: نزار مصطفى جواد الصراف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان معظم الدراسات في موضوع انموذج انحدار اللوجستك تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. وتاتي اهمية الحاجة الى تطبيق الطرائق الحصينة عندما تكون بيانات الظاهرة المدروسة ملوثة , | In most of studies about the logistic regression model take in it's nature more progness in the procedure of acurate statistical analysis which aim getting estimators of a high level of efficiency , and importance of it's necessity to applicate of the robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated , it means some of the observations vareit clearly from other observations called outliers which may produce estimators untrustworthy and so the decision will be false about the problem that we are trying to study it.From this point was the goal of this research in reaching robust estimators to estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model through study some of theis estimators (method (WMLE) , method( M ) and method (Lp) ) and that by supposing three levels of contamination (0%,10%,30%). Also we use simulation in this study to compete between methods of studied estimator for all levels of the contaminated studies.In this thesis the researcher concluded the success of the method (WMLE (w1)) in estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model, in comparsion with studied estimate methods by depending on statistical measures : Bias, Mean Square Error for parameters and model.Also the researcher specified a chapter for applying and using method WMLE (w1) on real data of angina pectoris patients which taking from Ibn - al - Nafees hospital for the purpose of estimate parameters of binary logistic regression model.

استعمال المجموعات الضبابية ونماذج بوكس جينكنز في السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ ببعض نسب التلوث في مياه الشرب لمدينة بغداد == Using The Fuzzy Sets And Box - Jenkins Models In Time Series To Prediction Some Rates of Pollution In Baghdad City

Author name: سيف عدنان سلمان
Supervisor name: احلام احمد جمعة
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: There are many statistical methods used in time series analysis and that of the most famous of these methods Box - Jenkins models, which include a number of stages needed to reach the best model is used to predict the process, and that this method requires the availability of a number of conditions required in the process of building the model and assumptions about the nature of the time series being linear, a natural or stationary , and with the growing interest in the topic of time - series modern methods used in time series analysis and foremost of which is the use of Fuzzy logic and Fuzzy sets in the time series as one of the most modern methods to predict is the most important alternatives to traditional statistical methods have emerged they possess the ability to in finding solutions to various areas and it does not require the availability of the conditions due to the use of traditional models which are difficult achieved in most cases. Then in this paper the use of the two methods in the time series, , (Box Jenkins models, and Fuzzy time series) in the forecasting process as each method include special stages are different from the other, through the study of the monthly chemical tests for solids dissolved rate data behavior and examine the turbidity of the water drinking in the city of Baghdad for the period (January 2004) and up (December, 2013) and a better model to predict through the application and the comparison of the results in these ways by using a number of statistical standards and ones (MSE) and (MAPE)

توظيف الخوارزمية الوراثية في انشاء تصاميم القطاعات غير الكاملة المتزنة == Construction of Balanced Incomplete Blocks Design (B.I.B.D.) By Using Genetic Algorithms (G.A.)

Author name: سهام دنخا خوشابا
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Some times we faced problem that either the number of treatments used in an experiment more than the number of experimental units inside the particular block or the blocks size large than the number of replicated of treatments, then we have to use incomplete blocks design (I.B.D.); in this design either the treatment appear in block or not; that means the treatment may appear or not in a block, also when the treatments appear in a pair of treatments, this design called balanced incomplete block design (B.I.B.D.). This case makes the B.I.B.D. important by using the randomization to distribute the treatments inside the blocks and create Incidence Matrix, where its elements either zero when the treatment not appears or one when the treatment appears. This kind of design is important in many fields of study especially in the agriculture and in the veterinary medicine …etc. The aims of the previous studies was to find the way for construction of B.I.B.D..Till now the studies keep going to find out the new ways or methods for construction.The aim of this study is to find out a new way for construction. A new way for construction the incident matrix by using steps for building “Genetic Algorithms”, is discussed Genetic Algorithms are theoretically and empirically proven to provide a robust search in a complex spaces.

مقارنة بعض اختبارات ملاءمة نماذج السلاسل الزمنية ذات الرتب الدنيا باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison of Some Diagnostic Checking Tests For Time Series Models With Low Order By Using Simulation

Author name: سهاد احمد احمد
Supervisor name: احلام احمد جمعة
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان دراسة السلسلة الزمنية تتطلب دقة في وصف ملامح الظاهرة (العملية) التي تتولد منها، سواء من حيث تفسير طبيعة تلك الظاهرة وسلوكها واستخدام النتائج للتنبوء بسلوكها في المستقبل اخذين بنظرالعناية التحقق عما يمكن حدوثه عند تغيير بعض معلمات الانموذج. ويمكن استخ | Studying time series requires an accurate description for the features of phenomena (procedure) that generates time series according to its nature and behavior interpretation. After that, we can use these results for forecasting to the future taking under consideration : examine to what would happen after changing some of the model parameters, use the standard (depended) methods for testing the accuracy of the identified model which has ability for taking errors in the procedure, and provide balancing condition between model diagnosing and simplicity as well as. This research aims to use some of tests concern with diagnosing of the identified model, and make comparisons among these tests meanwhile. The researcher took some of tests, especially, the modern ones, represented by Dm test which depends on partial autocorrelation function, and which depends on autocorrelation function. We use ARMA models with lower order : [AR (1), MA (1), ARMA (1,1)] that Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we use the tests concern with linear hypothesis diagnosing for the previous three models, represented by squaring the model errors. We use also, the modified tests in this field. In addition, we use some of nonlinear models, as "Threshold" model, and taking self - exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) as a special case. The analysis of time series considered time range under model stationary. Methodology of the research depends on both the theoretical part (Statistical theory usage), and the empirical part (Simulation). The structure of the research has mainly based on four chapters as follow : chapter ONE, consists an introduction, the goal of the research and the historical literature. While chapter TWO, covers the statistical methods that take part describing and modeling the time series, as well as explain the main concepts of time series such as "Stationary". We show also, the "mixed" model with lower order, crossing to examining the diagnosing through some of the standard and modern tests which depends on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the standardized residual series that obtained from the original series of the model, by testing the randomization of the model errors and make checking for its convenience and accuracy. Furthermore, we use the modified tests : ( , , )and (Kwan & Sim) test represented by ( , , ) to determine the linear hypothesis diagnosing by compute the standardized residual series squares of the error in the previous three models that mentioned above. We use nonlinear model (SETAR) as well as. Chapter THREE, devoted for the empirical part which contains illustrations to all of what mentioned in chapter two. The researcher has designed some of experiments for purpose of comparing the (standard, modern and modified) tests through computing (P - value) for each model at (0.01) significant level at many simulated parameters, with different sample sizes, and for a number of periods of lags at each sample size, by replicating the experiment (1000) times. Finally, chapter FOUR comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the researcher had recommended

استعمال اشجار الانحدار التصنيفية والانحدار اللوجستي في تقدير انموذج تجميعي والمقارنة بينهما مع تطبيق عملي == Using Classification Regression Trees And Logistic Regression To Estimate Additive Model Comparison With Application

Author name: سهاد احمد احمد
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعاني بعض الظواهر من وجود حالة اضطراب في بياناتها بالاضافة الى صعوبة صياغتها وخصوصا مع وجود عدم وضوح في استجابتها، او لكثرة الاختلافات الجوهرية التي تعتري الوحدات التجريبية التي تم اخذ هذه البيانات منها. فعندما تزداد المجاميع لمجتمع ما, لا يمكن اعتبار ذل | Often suffer phenomena and there is disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. When growing groups of a population, it can't be regarded as a homogeneous population is increasing because the dispersion between the experimental units in response to that population as well as the error will also be increasingly difficult to build a model of that population.So there was a need to include an estimation method on the classification or underlying discrimination for these pilot units using discrimination or create segments for each item of these pilot units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more in line style.Has been resorting to the use of the method of a modern and flexible classification is based on the neighborhoods between the views represented by the response variable by classification regression trees : CART. It was the use bayesian approach and the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and collect trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage fork on the other hand, represented the bayesian classification regression trees : BART.In view of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of science it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science swarm of birds and other originally illustrated algorithm for the purposes of technology pertaining to distinguish between images or vibrational radio, etc., can be harnessed to serve the knowledge of statistics, which is based Turn on the information production and to achieve success in it. So is the use of genetic algorithm and submit a proposal by modified genetic algorithm, in addition to C4.5 and ID3 algorithms. And without losing the generality has been used as a tool of logistic analysis as important tool.It was a whole performance along with an estimate of the general additive model method of classification of all the methods mentioned in the above. Fitted model as modern and flexible overcomes curse of dimensionality that may occur most modern phenomena of the times when their data analysis.It was the use of simulated samples of different sizes (200, 400, 600) with (1000) replicates. The application was performed on patients with diabetes data for those aged (15) years and below are taken from the sample size (200) was withdrawn from the children hospital/ Al - Eskan/ Baghdad.As proof of the goodness of classification has been using the misclassification error, and as proof of the goodness of estimation has been using the root mean squares error.Was reached important conclusions through a process of differentiation among the six methods above, the superiority of the Classification and Regression Trees Algorithm (CART) is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in empirical side, when proposed Genetic Algorithm is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in applied side.

دراسة احصائية لوفيات الاطفال الرضع لمحافظة نينوى للفترة 1987 - 2004

Author name: سما سعدي علي الهاشمي
Supervisor name: عبد الحسين زيني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الاحصاء السكاني ( الديموغرافي ) من العلوم المهمة في الوقت الحاضر، فهو الدراسة الاحصائية للسكان وخصائصهم وفعالياتهم وتغييراتهم من حيث التكاثر والوفاة والانتقال والعوامل التي تؤثر فيها والنتائج التي تنشا عنها. من اهم التغيرات التي تحدث على السكان ه

الارتباط القويم والشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية : دراسة تطبيقية == Canonical Correlation And Artificial Neural Network (Application Study)

Author name: سليمة حمادي جاسم
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي | عدنان شهاب حمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعتبر الراتبا ط القويم طريقة عامة في دراسة العلاقات بين مجموعتين كم المتغيرات ويتميز عن الارتباط البسيط في كونة يقيس العديد من العلاقات البسيط في الوقت نفسة وعن الارتباط المتعدد في كونة يقيس قوة العلاقات بين مجموعة من المتغيرات التوضيحية ومجموعة من المتغي | I used the model of canonical correlation analysis, and artificial neural network model.In the practical part, it has been chose the student performance in the four years, and because of modernity of the experiment of evening schools, and comparing it with morning schools for the works administration and accounting departments in Administration and Economics College / University of Baghdad in order to know the performance of the student through the four years and the possibility to reduce waist in educational system, whether in training powers and other requirements to reach a top valuable scientific level with a less possible expenditures, and assuming their performance using the model of canonical correlation analysis and artificial neural network model to reach and compare the results in the two models to get a best model.

اشتراك توزيعي ويبل وتكوين توزيع الباي ويبل == The Participation of Two Weibull Distributions And The Formation of Bi - Weibull Distribution

Author name: سلام جاسم محمد الساعدي
Supervisor name: علي عبد الحسين صالح الوكيل
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية باعتباره علما يتعامل مع اعمار المعدات ولاسيما احتمالات البقاء ومتوسط الحياة وهذا يعود بالاساس الى التطور التكنولوجي السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات. وعلى هذا الاساس فان در | The wide increasing concern of studying the topic of reliability as a science dealing with equipment ages, especially the survival and life average probabilities rendered to the fast technological development and the utility of complicated electronic systems in various fields. On that basis, the studying the topic of reliability and the connection between the theoretical and applied sides together have a great importance because they are considered the indicator towards stating the extent of efficiency and capacity of the machine and the work system without damages for a long period of time, accordingly, the study of (Weibull Distribution) is a sample of failure functions because this distribution is suitable when failure rates are high relatively at the operating start, then these rates decrease gradually with time increase. Accordingly, the thesis includes mainly a display of a new sample of joint distributions which is known as (Bi - Weibull). This kind of distribution gives more elasticity and more accurate results.Hence, the basic statistical measures and the parameter estimation of (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) were found through (MLE) by using the simulation method (Inverse Formula). In order to reach the research aim, the research is divided into five chapters. Chapter one deals with the topic general backgrounds and function definition including the reliability function. Whereas chapter two is dedicated to expose the methods of estimating the parameters of the (2 - Parameter Weibull Distribution) with displaying the basic statistical measures of (2 and 3 - Parameter Weibull Distributions). As to chapter three, it includes the theoretical side of (Bi - Weibull Distribution) with the exposure of the following three states of this distribution : - (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (5 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (6 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) with their basic statistical measures.Chapter four manifests the research programs and simulation results as well as result analysis. Chapter five includes the conclusions and recommendations the researcher has arrived at

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة التمهيدية لدوال اللب متعدد المتغيرات وتوظيفها في الدوال التمييزية مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Smoothing of Estimate Methods For Multivariate Kernel Functions And Employs Them In Discriminants Functions With Practical Application

Author name: سكينة شامل جاسم
Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان التحليل التمييزي (Discriminant Analysis ) غالبا ما يعاني من مشكلة صغر حجم العينة ( SSS ) Small Simple Size خاصة عندما يتم تطبيقها لتصنيف انماط عالية الابعاد مثل (التعرف على الوجه، حركة اليد وحركة الجينات الوراثية و...)، او عندما تكون البيانات لديها | The linear discriminant analysis often suffer from small sample size (sss) problem.especially when they are applied for the classification of high_dimenssional patterns. Such as (face recognition) or when data is distributed normal distribution but when they are non _ linear and has spread widely. We are dealing with this problem by using a technique of kernel discriminant analysis. because this technique depends on the kernel density estimation which belong to the class of estimates. it is commonly perform Avery important technique for visualizing data distribution and smoothing. It is unimportant to procedure in the explanatory data analysis, as that used in kernel discriminate analysis well known by researchers. To identify statistical. patterns. it is also known that these estimates are. Based mainly on the choice of bandwidth parameter end controlled on smoothing of estimation and to choice kernel function. has been the use of carton methods to estimate band width parameter it is : plugin methad Least square Cross validation method Smoothed Cross validation method Are selected as a parameter of bandwidth and use in kernel density estimation (KDE( and then employ them in kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) approach. Through the joint base for groups is a kernel discriminant rule (KDR) which rely heavily on density classified (f ?_j) and probability of prior (? ?_j).therefore the problem of multiple class(The use of several variables) will be more important and visible to be parameter of bandwidth is different when compared with various densities classified. Finally, it was real data from the general blood cancer disease and style simulation application, as it was reached that way (KDA - SCV) is best when using the above standard compared with other methods because it gave the misclassification rate least.in the practical side results showed in such a way that nine people were the first (n1... n9) of the first group are infected with disease among 50 people is infected and 12 people from the second group infected with the Lisu people living with and they (n45... n50 and n1... n6 ).

مقارنة بعض الطرائق اللبية في تقدير نماذج الانحدار اللامعلمي بوجود بيانات تامة وغير تامة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods For Kernel Models In Complete And Incomplete Data

Author name: سعد كاظم حمزة
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | مناف يوسف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان استخدام النماذج المعلمية يتطلب العديد من الشروط الاولية التي يجب توافرها لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثون الى البحث عن نماذج اقل صرامة من النماذج المعلمية وتمثلت هذه النماذج بالنماذج ال | Using of parametric models require a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models. One of nonparametric methods important for estimating nonparametric regression function known as (kernel estimation) to be used for estimating any statistical function which is (smooth estimator) free of disorders modifying the observations and approximating estimated regression function to real nonparametric regression function. Hence, the researcher showed some kernel methods to estimate the nonparametric regression function in both cases complete data (FNW, FLLS, VNW, VLLS) and incomplete data (FSNW, VSNW, FINW, VINW, FSLLS, VSLLS, FILLS, VILLS) and compared them through the simulation method as well as using different models and different sizes of samples and variants. From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best smoother was (FLLS) by using the first model, while by using the second model, it was shown that the best smoother was (VLLS) and in the third model was (VNW). In case of incomplete data, the best smoother was (VSLLS) by using the first and second models while by using the third model, the best smoother was (VSNW)

بعض المقدرات الحصينة لقدرة الطيف وفق الانموذج المختلط ARMA مع تطبيق عملي == Some Robust Estimators For Power Spectrum According To The Arma Models With Application

Author name: سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهدف الاطروحة ايجاد افضل مقدر(التقدير الامثل) لدرجة ارتداد الانموذج المختلط ARMA ذي الدرجات المتدنية لقدرة الطيف Power Spectrum والحصول على امثلية التنبؤ، اذ ان مشكلة الاطروحة تكمن في خطا اعتماد اساليب تقدير درجة الارتداد قبل اطفاء اثر الشواذ التجميعية ( | The Aim of The thesis is finding the best estimator (optimal estimate) the degree of rebound mixed model ARMA with low scores to Power Spectrum and get optimizing forecasting, As the problem of the thesis lies the mistake of adopting methods of estimating rebound degree before extinguishing (AO) Outliers (additives Values) in an estimate operation based on data series without getting rid of the effect of the presence of Outliers. According to This thesis addressing the Existence of the Outliers, in particular, (AO) Outliers after addressing the existence of Outliers, then starting estimate the optimization for a rebound.When interest in Robust estimates we must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models is defined due to lack of stability in addition to the difficulty of knowing specimen probabilistic it appears at first paragraph leap suddenly are called stereotypes Bahawaz Innovation Outlier, late to be the behavior of independent gay behavior values the other called Bahawaz aggregate Additive Outliers.When interest in estimates fortified must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models Unlimited Parameters is defined due to lack of Stationarity in addition to the difficulty of knowing probabilistic model ,it appears at first paragraph sudden leap are called Innovation Outlier, or be an independent behavior of other values called Additive Outliers.Shows the experimental side of the Thiess through a standard MSE, MAPE preference of Robust method on the Unrobes for all sample sizes and for all primary parameters assumed values, as well as for all default frequencies values (Wi), have an adverse impact in terms of efficiency when models ARMA (0,1), ARMA ( 0.2), and very slight variation when the model ARMA (1,1) the impact of outliers and the supposed frequencies (w) = [1/4, 1 / 3.3, 1 / 2.5, ½] small.The nature of the electrical signal surveyed of heart (ECG - Electrocardiogram) a vital signal , unstable and the form of Signal spectrum reflects the Performance of the human heart muscle and its health.is random changes sharp and irregular in time series represents the work of the heart of a natural person (without straining) include what is known Outliers caused by its actual nature not the result of errors in the measurement or the register, which makes them do not follow a particular distribution, led to the difficulty of conducting Assessments for Power spectrum according to the traditional methods of estimation that assumes distributed statistically,In addition to that the data generation processes require the availability of basic assumptions is inconsistent with the nature of the Heart signal ECG, and to minimize or reduce these assumptions adopted by the simulation approach often leads to unrealistic and far from the real system results and establishes a breakthrough for good properties of these estimates that we have made it necessary to adopt the idea of Robust estimates (M - estimate) in accordance with the Robust functions (Huber, Hample, Tukey, Andrew) in addition to the method of maximum likelihood Mle according to restricted simulations in the practical side, which serves as a purification process or soften the Estimators resulting from follow of statistical estimation methods on real data to determine the best estimators of Power spectrum and the search for the best Model and section distribution , and then apply the result of a trade - offs in according to indicator the indirect transition of the speed of the signal (?/S2) between the Estimation functions and Distributions on eight of combinations of Mixed model ARMA (p, q) and estimating MSE, RMSE and selecting the optimum combination which is ARMA (2,2) with Extreem value distribution and with Hampel function at section 200, which amounted to (MSE = 0.000109).

الاتساق الذاتي وتحليل المكونات الرئيسة == The Self - Consistency And Principal Component'S Analysis

Author name: سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعني عبارة " الاتساق - الذاتي " اختبارا لمحور المكونات الرئيسة عندما يرتكز التوزيع على المحور الذي يعطي تقريبا بسيطا للتوزيع الاصلي متعدد المتغيرات.جرت عملية الاختبار بفحص نقص المطابقة Lack of Fit Test في ضوء طريقة البوتستراب (Bootstrap ) اي ( تكرار ا | The term " Self - Consistency " means ; examine the Self - consistency of a principal components axis : when a distribution is centered on a principal component axis, which provides a simple straight line approximation to a multivariate distribution.A principal component axis of a random vector X; is self - consistent if each point on the axis corresponds to the mean of X given that X projects orthogonally on to that point.this examination is done by " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test applied on to two kinds of data set (real and simulation) with different samples (small, medium, large),depending on the probability values for getting levels of significance (to assess the self - consistency of principal component axis) which is based on the frame work of the data set, whether it will be true (towards to the elliptical form for the multivariate normal distribution) or generated data set using the restrictive simulation ( towards to the asymptotic spherical form for multivariate normal distribution ) that's for estimating the self - consistency by the hypothesis ;Hk : Yk is self - consistent for Xprincipal component analysis for factor analysis is use with the aim of analyzing the large number of variables and their effective factors by the factor rotation procedure which is assumes also the multivariate normal distribution, with proposed technique, based on the smallest column on X for different sizes of samples ( small " 5 - 20 " , medium " 25 - 50 ", and large " 60 - 100 ").High level of fit, is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit" test in all sample size for all research variable's; with little difference and the best for male group of the results for female group on the size ( 5 - 35 ) , conversely for another size's.and also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the small sample size ( 5 - 20 ) for true data set using direct oblimin rotation method for male group, in the medium sample size ( 25 - 50) using the same method with direct method( None) for female group.In generated data set by normal restricted simulation technique, also high level of fit is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test in all sample size's and for all sample Size's (small, medium, large) and for tow group's (male, female), which indicate to the usefulness of using the restricted simulation technique to take pure data set, and the model with high level of stationary.also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the different sample size's, using the varimax rotation method for tow Group's (male, female), the two method's ( none, direct oblimin rotation) in some of sample size's which refers to corresponding the normal stat with varimax rotation method ,that is well known of its object for simplified explaining the factor matrix by maximization the loading variance

مقارنة بعض الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية لبعض تصاميم القياسات المكررة == A Comparisoin of Some Parametric And Nonparametric Methods For Some Repeated Measures Designs

Author name: سجى محمد حسين علي الهاشمي
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في الكثيرمن الدراسات الطبية والتربوية والسيكولوجية (علم النفس)وعلم الاجتماع نشاهد بان المفردات (subjects) تتكرر تحت مختلف الشروط التجريبية((conditions والتي تسمى بالمعالجات (treatments) وان البيانات المتجمعة من مختلف الوحدات التجريبية تفترض لان تكون مستقل | In many medical , educational , psychology and sociology studies we find that the same subjects repeated under different experimental conditions which called treatments. The collected data from different experimental units suppose to be independent while the observation for the same experimental units will be dependent. The term repeated measures designs is called for this type of data in which the response for every experimental units or subjects is tested or measured under a number of different experimental conditions. Our attention will be on the case of a univariate response variable. There are many procedures for testing the null hypothesis that there is no treatments effects, depends on the number of treatments. either the same subjects are tested under two treatments or tested under three treatments or more. The aim of this study is comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods of repeated measures designs for two treatments through applying the tests on true experiments data. and comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods for three treatments or more, which included two designs which are the complete randomize block design when the ANOVA conditions are satisfied. And the One - way generalized repeated measures model when does not assume specified form of the variance - covariance matrix.Simulation procedures are used in order to compare probability of type one error and power of the test for all methods. In addition , the researcher presented the suggested methods and analyzing the results by comparing them with the other methods for the mentioned designs.

مقارنة اسلوب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول == A Comparison of Bayesian Approach With Another Methods To Estimate Reliability Function For Pareto Distribution of The First Kind

Author name: ستار محمد صالح
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول (Pareto Distribution of the First Kind) في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات وفي حالة عدم توافرها وتم توظيف اسلوب المحاكاة (Simulation) بطريقة مونت كارلو (Mont - Carlo) للمقارنة بين طرا | In this dissertation, an estimation of reliability function for the Pareto Distribution of the First Kind has been done in the case of exists a prior information and not exists. A simulation approach by Mont - Carlo method is used to comparisons between the methods of estimation to find the best method of estimation this function. To realizes the object of search, the search is divided into four chapters. The first chapter contain an introduction, object of search and the review of literature. The second chapter contain the theoretical part. The third chapter include the experimental part, and finally the fourth chapter include the conclusions that researcher find they and recommendations suggested from him about the search. The researcher find that the Bayes approach is the best in estimation of reliability function comparing with the other method of estimation through depending on the two statistical measurements integral Mean Squared error (IMSE), and integral Mean Absolute percentage error (IMAPE).

طرائـــق بيــز فــي تحليــل نمــوذج القياس الاقتصادي المكاني مع تطبيق عملي == Bayes Methods In Analyzing Spatial Econometrics Model With Practical Application

Author name: سامي غني خضير عطره
Supervisor name: خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الخاصية الاساسية لتمييز البيانات المكانية عن بيانات السلاسل الزمنية هي الترتيب المكاني للمشاهدات , وعينات البيانات المكانية تمثل مشاهدات ترتبط بنقاط او مواقع وتتميز هذه البيانات بان ارتباطها يضعف كلما بعدت المسافة وكذلك تتميز بتدرج المكان (( المناطقية | The main property to differentiate the spatial data from time series data is the spatial arrangement of observations and the samples of spatial data represent observations related to points or locations these data are distinguished with the weakness of their connection each time the distance getting far away and the place graduation (location)on the spatial relations of observations are represented in matrix named spatial weights matrix. The spatial econometrics is used in following up the spatial effects like the spatial dependence of observations in different points of place, and spatial heterogeneity arising from relations or parameters model that change with sample data in each time we move within the place , those two points have been neglected in traditional econometrics because of their sinconsistency of statistical assumptions and when taking those spatial effects into consideration ,the statistical influence will be of high efficiency. On the contrary, ignoring these effects will lead to loss the information and will not be as efficient as the dependant sample.Because of the difficulty of deriving the posterior function (on which the Bayesian inference depends) up on applying the Bayesian methods especially in cases that the number of probable models is very large as computing the posterior functions for all these samples requires integration for large dimensions functions which is very difficult Mathematically or inapplicable that requires proper methods can deal with such cases like Gibbs and Metropolis - Hastings sampling by analyzing the posterior distribution to number of conditional distributions for each parameter in the model and then the simplicity of inference for each parameter in the model.The matrix of spatial weights is built by registering the contiguity relations for each location with others in a matrix row (w?) and given (1) if there is a relation between two locations (wij=1) and zero, if it doesn’t (wij=0)as i and j refer to the rows and columns in sequence. For making the summation of each row in the matrix w? equal to 1 , the elements of matrix will be calculated according to the proportion : wij/ ?wij and i=1,2…,n j=1 Consequently, we will get the adjusted matrix W.The practical side was focused on the counting of spatial autoregressive model parameters, and these parameters is the vector ? and it is an ordinary regression parameters vector, and error variance parameter (?2) , and the most important of them is a countig of the parameter (?) which is represent spatial dependance parameter.In order to show the role of the spatial, the practical side included taking the real population for childrens between(1 - 19) year, that had iron deficiency anemia (due to from iron deficiency) that admitted to children’s hospitals in Kurkh district of Baghdad (which had been divided into five geographic regions) for 2010. We have suggested that computing the elements in the adjusted matrix to be on basis of the actual length proportion of the joint borders among different locations that lead to get the accurate estimated value of spatial dependence parameter، where value result of spatial dependence parameter (?) was (0.43) when use Metropolis - Hastings sampling method while value of this parameter when use spatial outoregressive function and by using the adjusted matrix was( 0.57) and value of this parameter when use the same regression function but by using the suggested matrix was (0.85).

دراسة تحليلية للعوامل البيئية المؤثرة على انتاج التمور في محافظة البصرة == An Analytical Study On The Effect of Environmental Elements On Dates Production In Basrah

Author name: سامر عادل عبد الله
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اصبح المناخ اليوم من الموضوعات الرئيسية المهمة التي تحتل مرتبة الصدارة لدى جميع دول العالم المتقدمة والنامية، لاسيما بعد ان تبين بوضوح مدى التغيرات التي شهدها في العقود الاخيرة. والتي تحدث اما لاسباب طبيعية نتيجة اختلال في توازن النظام البيئي او لاسباب بش | Climate has become a key topic that occupies the forefront of all developed and developing countries around the world, especially after the climate change witnessed in recent decades, These changes occur due to either natural causes as a result of an imbalance in the ecosystem, or human causes such as human economic activities, these changes affected many aspects of life, one of which is the agriculture, including palm cultivation and dates productionThe aim of this research was to study the effect or the relationship between climate and dates production, which is considered one of the most important crops that can be relied upon economically. This research uses the method of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis to find out the climatic elements effecting the productivity of two types of dates (Helawi and Zehdi). The independent variables (climatic side) were the average of the yearly rates for (Maximum temperatures, Sunshine duration, Relative humidity, Wind speed and Suspended dust) in Basra city for the period (2005 - 2014), and the dependent variable was the average of the palm tree productivity measured in (kg), which represents the (agricultural side). The results showed that there are three factors (variables) affecting dates production of (Helawi), which are (sunshine duration, suspended dust and wind speed) because they were statistically significant. As for the (Zehdi), there were two statistically significant variables, which are (Sunshine and Maximum temperatures). The conclusions and recommendations were founded by using the Stepwise regression in statistical package (SPSS v19)

مقدرات بيز لدالة المعولية الضبابية للتوزيع الاسي باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيقها على الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية == The Fuzzy Reliability Function Bayes Estimators For Exponential Distribution Using The Simulation With It Is Application On The State Company For Elictrical Industeries

Author name: زينة ياوز عبد القادر اوجي
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يدرس البحث الضبابية والتي مفهومها ان كل قيمة تقع ضمن فترة معينة،ونعتمد في تحديد حدود هذه الفترة على الخبرات السابقة حول موضوع الظاهرة المدروسة.وفي بعض الاحيان يصعب تحديد هذه الفترة ونتعامل مع القيمة الضبابية وما حولها من القيم القريبة دون الاعتماد على ا | This paper concerned with studying the fuzzy which means that each value is within specific period and to determinate the limits of this period depends on previous expertises about the studies phenomena subject.Some times it is difficult to determine this stage or period ,in this case we deal with the fuzzy values and other proximate ones without depending on previous expertises ,because they are not available or because of te differences in points of researches,view about the determination of minimum and maxmum restriction for there values.Through this research we will treat fuzzy lifetime data that each value does not have minimum and maximum limitation which enable us to appoint the sutable belonging degrees but all lifetime data have minimum restriction which represent the begininning life time , and maximum one that represents the end of lifetime And by using membership function of Ching to determing a membership function for those data , This paper discussed two procedures to estimate the fuzzy reliability ,Bayes procedure that includes the following : 1 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter.2 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter. 3 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes a fuzzy parameter. 4 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter And FRDP (Fuzzy Reliability Definition Procedure) that uses component trapezium method,to find numerical integration ,by using the Exponential distribution form for sample data,and Gama distribution for the prier distribution for the parameter of Exponential distribution ,and four value for sample size.And depending on the results that have been conducted in the experimental side ,it is shown that bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability when the fuzzy sample data have membership degree equal to 0.1for samples of small sizes. When the failure times average value is bigger than one ,so Bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for small samples sizes,and FRDP is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for sizes of big samples The data which have been taken from the state company for electrical industries of foundation machine Toshiba are used as well after bayes method and FRDP method are applied to estimate the fuzzy reliability,it is noticed that results of both the applied and experimental side are th

مقارنة الاساليب المستخدمة في تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة مع جانب تطبيقي == The Comparison of Methods Used In Determining The Principal Components Number With An Applied Aspect

Author name: زينة ياوز عبد القادر
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: استخدم تحليل المركبات الرئيسة في تحليل الكثير من الظواهر الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، ومن هذه الظواهر اخترنا ظاهرة تخص شريحة واسعة من مجتمعنا الا وهي ظاهرة تاخر حصول التدريسي الجامعي على اللقب العلمي التالي، ولان تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة الداخلة في تحليل ا | The principal components analysis is used in analyzing many economic and social phenomena; and one of them is related to a large group in our society who are the university instructors. This phenomenon is the delay occurred in getting university instructor to his next scientific title. And as the determination of the principal components number inside the principal components depends on using many methods, we have compared between three of these methods that are : (BARTLETT, SCREE DIAGRAM, JOLLIFFE). We concluded that JOLLIFFE method was the best one in analyzing the studying phenomenon data among these three methods, we found the most distinguishing factors effecting on the phenomenon was (the number of the lectures the university instructor has, the administrative routine, the entertainment activities, family situation, shortage in academic staff, pages number, the use of the internet and the political attitude). So , we should begin with treating these factors as a first step for motivating university instructor to develop his thinking capabilities.

تحليل التجارب ثنائية العوامل المتزنة وغير المتزنة لبيان اثر عاملين على بعض صفات محصول الشلب في العراق

Author name: زينة ابراهيم حسن رشيد
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | احمد شهاب احمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان التجربة العاملية (التي تهتم في وقت واحد وتجربة واحدة بدراسة عاملين فاكثر ),اذ ان لكل عامل مستويات ,وبتوافيق مستويات العوامل تتشكل المعالجات العاملية , هذه التجربة لها اهمية كبيرة في الجوانب التطبيقية وتتسم بالمزايا : - 1انها تسهم في تقلي | 1. It contributes to reduce the cost, time, efforts, and experimental units as a result of the implementation of a single experiment, rather than two or more experiments.2. Provide us by information of the main effects of factors and the effects of interactions of these factors.3. The possibility to compare all different combinations of two or factors to be studied.4. These experiments provide an opportunity to compare the levels of each factor separately, as if the experiment was devoted to him alone.Therefore, the information that we get from factorial experiments always be more perfect and realistic than those we get from single - factor experiments.The factorial experiments held by adopting equilibrium that is oriented common and natural , it might generated cases of unbalance ( what is allocated of the number of plots for each uneven factorial treatment), which may be done on purpose by the researcher (performing the experiment) or it may be due to lack of materials or resources, which leads to identify groups of processing that will be dealt with, or for other reasons like damage or loss pieces or results of experimental subject to certain processing. Such situations cause them a problem of how to analysis it, so the goal of this message is to research deeper theoretically to contribute in find solutions for the research problem and the vast knowing of the analysis methods of the balanced and unbalanced factorial experiments, with discussing the possibility of propose a method or technique to analysis this case. since been in separate theoretical aspect of this message addressed to several ways in addition to provide a proposed way for analysis. The theoretical beside the practical aspects has been improved (Chapter three) to take an advantage of a realistic data experiments (not analyzed) carried out with the Public Board for Agricultural Research (the party was made contract with) where the experiment has been analyzed (balanced and unbalanced factorials) to study the impact of the rice verities factor and also the distances of planting the rice for many characters of the rice crops, as well as study the impact factor rice varieties and planting dates factor on some of the qualities of the rice crop has implemented in Mashkhab station in the province of Najaf, and we used the methods of the analysis presented in addition to the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the moral of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are available to use each method of analysis and the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the significant of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are made available to use all method of methods of analysis and the suggested method was as as follows : 1 - perferred to use method frequencies the expected cell in the case of that the data is unbalanced and semi - proportional.2 - perferred to use method un weighted means in the case of that the data is unbalanced and disproportional.3 - perferred to use method of harmonic mean in the case of that the data is unbalanced and two case proportional and disproportional.4 - prefer to using the suggested method (median method ) in the event that the data is is unbalanced and disproportional.5 - prefer to data analysis unbalanced without trying to estimate missing values.

استخدام سلاسل ماركوف في التعرف على تعاقبات الحامض النووي DNA

Author name: زينب هاتف عباس الركابي
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي | علي عبد الرحمن الزعاك
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان للحمض النووي الدنا DNA اهمية كبيرة وبالغة لكونه حاملا للمعلومات الوراثية وبالتالي فان دراسة تعاقبات الحمض النووي DNA سوف تعطينا انطباعا عن الصفات الوراثية للكائن الحي.وبالنظر لاهمية سلاسل ماركوف في تفسير وتحليل الكثير من الظواهر من حيث حيز التكرار، ول | The DNA has great importance because it is a hereditary information carrier. In view of the importance of markove's chains in explaining, and analyzing many of the phenomenae through succession, our research incentive has therefore came to represent markov chains applications on the DNA and considering the conditional transitional probabilities of these chains elements for its great importance in finding the hereditary genetics from DNA compositions. Markov chains has been implemented for the probable alignment of the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth orders. Three means depending on these alignments have been used. Experimentation on four of DNA chains was carried out for human growth hormone and relied on DNA succession for comparison between the three ways that nominate the chain of the greater probability to represent the gene.In addition, a program was created to code and translate the three models of the ORF for the DNA succession and the chains for the three models which start with the start code and end with the stop code. The program was written by Visual basic language to carry out these operations and to yeild sequence alignment between the human growth hormone gene and other chains.The program implemented DNA chains in which the nucleotide number is less than 3000 bases examplified by the human growth's hormone, mouse and chicken growth hormone.As well, entrotoxins produced by E.coli, salmonella , shigella representing prokaryotes were also included one of the most significant conclusion reached is that markov assessment method of calculated weights by means of Chi Square is the best mean for identifying genes from DNA sequences.

استعمال سلاسل ماركوف وشبكات بيز الديناميكية لاحتساب معولية شبكة ماء الاعظمية == Use of Markov Chains And Dynamic Bayesian Network To Calculate The Reliability of Water Network Adhamiya

Author name: زينب مجبل ابراهيم
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اهتم الباحثين في دراسة المعولية والاتاحية لاستخدامها في مجالات عدة ومنها الطبية والهندسية والميكانيكية وفي علوم الحياة الخ. وهنالك اساليب وطرق مختلفة لدراستنا منها الطرائق المعلمية واخرى لامعلمية في معرفة التوزيع لاوقات الفشل وفي حالة فشل الباحث في التو | Researchers interested in the reliability and availability, to be used as a study in several areas, including medical, engineering, mechanical, and in the life sciences etc. There are different methods and ways to study such methods parametric and another for non - parametric to know the distribution of the times of failure in the case of a researcher failed to reach an appropriate distribution of one of these methods non - parametric is the style of Markov chains and dynamic Bayesian networks where the use of Markov chains to calculate the reliability and availability, and then draw a transitional scheme of the system consisting of these five units and the formation of differential equations governing the system and then solving these equations to find the probability that the network status assigned to be in time t was also a possibility account of the situation balanced when t is very large, and through it is calculated reliability and availability. But the style dynamic Bayesian networks as it has been translated dynamic fault tree to Bayesian networks, dynamic and has been the possibilities for calculating each phase of the network and calculating reliability through MATLAB software (2015a) and writing for each gate equations as the value of each of the gate static AND gate dynamic calculation WSP, a gate warm and the integration of the two preceding gates gate static OR after calculating the value of this gate is calculated reliability can be observed reliability decreasing values with increasing time as the reliability value when t = 0 is 0.999 that is, they are not equal to 1 because there are repairs to the network and value when t = 8640 is 0.023, and decreasing the reliability of the system with time and close to zero after 20 years from now

دراسة تحليلية لتصاميم تجارب القطع المنشقة SPED والقطاعات المنشقة SBED مع تطبيق عملي == Analytic Study For Split Plot Experimental Design (SPED) And Split Block Experimental Design (SBED) With Practical Application

Author name: زينب فالح حمزة
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان فكرة القطع المنشقة كانت قد وجدت لتضيف الى مزايا ومواصفات التجارب العاملية فوائد تطبيقية تصب في تركيز وتحسين دقة واهمية دراسة تاثيرات العوامل والتفاعلات بينها كونها تحوي اكثر من مصدر للخطا العشوائي ونظرا لما نالته هذه الفكرة من توسع واضافات كثيرة في الج | The idea of split - plot had been found to add to the advantages of factorial experiments and specification of practical interest is in the focus and improving the accuracy and the importance of studying the effects of factors and interactions between them. they contain more than one source of random error because of the indiscriminate earned by the idea of expansion and additions in many theoretical and practical contribution to the diversity and evolution with approved design and since we have observed that the practical uses in our country , though many of it's but limited to the adoption of the idea of split - plot design or split - split only, and purpose of contributing to clarify and depend the understanding and importance in the practical aspects of these additions which has focused the aim of this research (thesis) to provide in depth analytical study of some of the designs , practiculary designs of split - plot and desins of split - Block and what could be concluded from the ideas of the designs that has practical benefits , especially in the agricultural field was taken as the theoretical aspects (models , plans , analysis ) to design of ,split - plots , split - plots systematic arrangement whole plots, split - plot in time & and analysis of Covariance and the design of split - Blokes and the designs of split - split plots & the design of combination between split - plots & split Block then the practical application had been don using The experiments in agricultural (including rice crop ,and crop of peas) Resulted modern & variety data for the year 2008 in the rice research station in Mashkhab in ALnajaf governorate in addition to data for chick pea crop obtained from the station of Rabiaa where the data were analyzed using (SAS - stetictical analysis system). the results of analysis showed that the variety Anbar 33 is the best compared to other varieties for rice crop , and the age 27 day is the best compared to other ages. The designs that have not been able to conducted, which is also not present previously in our country has been adopting the idea of simulation usin visual basic Program, as shown in the appendices ( program 1,2) done by the researcher deals the design of combination between the split _ plots and split Blocks compare it with _the design split _split plot - and the program no(2) that concerned designing split Blocks. The analysis Results for both designs performed to be used in agricultural experiment as it provides high accuracy.

استعمال البرمجة اللاخطية في بناء نموذج رياضي لتخطيط الانتاج وفق قيود الخصم على الكمية المشتراة == Usage of Non - Linear Programming In Building A Mathematical Model For Production Planning According To Discount Constraints Put On Bought Amount

Author name: زينب علاء حميد
Supervisor name: عبد الرحيم خلف راهي الحارثي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هــذه الرسالة تـم بناء انمـوذج تخطـيط الانتاج (على المـدى المتوسـط) في الشـركة العامـة لصناعة الزيـوت النباتيـة باستعمال اسـلوب البرمجـة اللاخطـية بسـبب قـيود الخصـم على المواد الاولية الداخـلة في المنتجات الرئيسـية للشـركة ودراسـة حالة الخصـم على ثلا | In this thesis was to build a model of production in the medium term planning in the general company for the manufacture of vegetable oils using nonlinear programming method due to the discount restrictions on raw materials involved in the company’s main products and study the opponent case of the only three products among the six products because they require intense mathematical calculations lead to a significant expansion of the research was to focus on that piecewise makes the target function is not linear because they contain a series of line segments included breakpoints that earn the target function form sporadic presence intermittent developments[2][43] , application of the style of programming integers on a linear model using the program Win Qsb plan earnings productivity (3,640,000,000) billion dinars the method algorithm simulated annealing on the nonlinear model using Matlab software profits of productivity amounted (7,556,100,000) billion dinars a difference (3,916,100,000) billion dinars note that the algorithm method of simulated annealing give the best of programming integers method results as the company achieved the fullest extent of the profits according to the opponent while programming the numbers in a manner correct, which in turn destroys the rebate check cases a small percentage of the profits. This means that the results that have been reached in a manner simulated annealing algorithm is better than the programming method of integers.

استعمال مباريات التطور التعاونية المقابلة في تحديد نقاط الجذب للمجتمعات مع تطبيق عملي == The Use of Cooperative Games Development In Determining The Corresponding Points of Attraction For Communities With A Practical Application

Author name: زينب عبد الحسين عبد الرزاق
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة ومن خلال الفهم العام لنظرية الالعاب التطورية ( التي تعد من النظريات الحديثة ) القائمة على محاكاة المجتمعات في تطورها الديناميكي وصولا الى الامثلية في الاستراتيجيات بمرور فترة زمنية طويلة , ومهما طرات على المجتمعات من تذبذبات صائبة وخاطئة ف | In this letter and through the general understanding of Evolutionary game theory (which is one of the modern theories) based on the simulation of communities in the development of dynamic and down to the fitness of strategies over the long period of time, and whatever occurred in the communities swings right and wrong in the selection of strategies utensils should be points of the stability of these communities in the long run, and points of stability, this sometimes exhaust the points of great cross - matrix of payment, which is a magnet for society has been achieved and there is more than a magnet for the combined multiple identical (MPS) (multi - population symmetric games) through the employment of simulation method where generation vehicles heading y ?, x ? who represent the community first, second, as well as selecting values Al afteradp for the parameters (k_1, k_2, S_1, S_2), and assuming two functions Trabieitin f_2, f_1 To achieve this has been divided into the interval [ - 30.30] to eight spaces double points sample was assumed to points for summits local are ( - 15.15) and (15, - 15) and demonstrated that the stability, not necessarily to be points of great single, comprehensive, and it is this stability, the values of a great local to the matrix of pay rows and columns. This proved that the change in the field of the horizontal domain and vertical impact on the points of stability which could lead to changing the course of society, instead of heading towards the summit of Great overall edged heading toward points of great local flatter and Tvltaha, and demonstrated that the presence of the top super - local approach in the elevation of the summit of Great overall change the course of society. As in the application has reached the researcher to identify points of attraction between teaching in Iraq and the staff at the University of Baghdad and also for added degrees of years of service and responsibility to employees of the equipment of heavy engineering to find attractions to carry the burden of service for many years and done responsibly. And previous studies available to the researcher urged that the evolutionary model of the corresponding games has been limited to only together, so the focus was on mainstreaming the specimen to include the three communities have been reached to be through the theory of a simplified version of the graph (Graph Theory).

بناء انموذج رياضي لمشكلة النقل في ظل قيود ديناميكية الطلب مع تطبيق عملي == Building A Mathematical Model For The Transportation Problem Under The Dynamics of Demand Restrictions With Practical Application

Author name: زهراء قاسم هاشم
Supervisor name: عبد الجبار خضر بخيت
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذا البحث بناء انموذج رياضي لمشكلة النقل لبيانات الشركة العامة لتجارة الحبوب في بيئة من الطلب المتغير وحدود على الكميات المعروضة والكميات المطلوبة , كما عالج الانموذج حالات الطوارئ التي تواجه الشركة من نقصان او عدم وصول كميات الحبوب للسايلوات وذلك | In this research we built a mathematical model of the transportation problem for data of General Company for Grain Under the environment of variable demand ,and situations of incapableness to determining the supply required quantities as a result of economic and commercial reasons, also restrict flow of grain amounts was specified to a known level by the decision makers to ensure that the stock of reserves for emergency situations that face the company from decrease, or non - arrival of the amount of grain to silos , also it took the capabilities of the tanker into consideration and the grain have been restricted to avoid shortages and lack of processing capability, Function has been adopted in the mathematical model is a total of two functions : the first linear to reduce the overall costs of the transportation problem And the second linear fractional represent the proportion of public expenditure for the silos to college profits.a balanced model and equivalent to model the original problem has been formulated. The results proved the efficiency of the model in the distribution of the amount of grain where the total cost was reduced to (24%) with ensuring the existence of reserve stocks and meet the demand of mills.where the reserve stocks sufficed nearly to a month and half , The total expense was reduced by (32%) and the profits ratio was maximize at (7%) , the mathematical model was solved by using,hadvancedrsoftware(LINGO14.0)

استخدام التحليل الاحصائي في دراسة واقع البنى التحتية للاسرة العراقية لعام 2013 == The Use of Statistical Analysis In The Study of The Reality of The Infrastructure of The Iraqi Was Captured In 2013

Author name: زهراء علي هاشم
Supervisor name: ابتسام كريم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد دراسة واقع البنى التحتية وتحليل مؤشراته ومحدداته من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية. لذلك اختير هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات مسح خارطة الفقر ووفيات الامهات في العراق الذي نفذ خلال ال | The study of the reality of infrastructure and the analysis of indicators and determinants are important issues for Iraq, which aims to achieve economic and social development more realistically. Therefore, this research was selected using the data of the survey of the poverty map and maternal mortality in Iraq carried out during the year 2013 by the Central Statistical Organization and using the SPSS to reach the variables that have a direct impact on the level of the infrastructure of the Iraqi family. The analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the twelve variables to reach the factors that actually affect the level of infrastructure, which included housing, electricity, water, sewage system, basic services. The cluster analysis method was adopted and the data of the twelve variables were converted to the standard formula. To eliminate the difference of units of measurement of these variables and thus ensure the validity of the implementation of the stage related to the process of data classification and determine the extent of the relationship between the Iraqi provinces in terms of similarity or difference and in the last stage to enter the methods of analysis and analysis. Two main methods of analysis were used : the main vehicle method and the main axis method. It was obtained through the results of the main vehicles method that there were two factors (the value of the underlying root is greater or equal to the correct one) namely housing, electricity, water and basic services factor with an explanatory capacity of 85.469 (847.82%) of the total variance, and the remaining 17.153% of the total variance, and the remaining 14.531% Due to other factors. Thus, the cluster analysis used two methods of hierarchical analysis, ie, the single link and the total linkage. The results were close to some minor differences among them. Most of the aggregates' tables were close to a small difference in transactions. This difference depends on the methodology of each method.

استعمال اسلوب بيز لتقدير منظومة المعادلات الانية في حالة المتغير الداخلي مصنف ثنائيا مع تطبيق عملي == Using Bayesian Approach To Estimate The Simultaneous Equations System In Case The Endogenous Variable Is Classified Binary With Application

Author name: ريسان عبد الامام زعلان
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج المعادلات الانية بالطريقة التقليدية من المواضيع المهمة والتي كتب عنها الكثير من البحوث والدراسات وهذه البحوث تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير الا ان التقدير بالطرق البيزية لهذه المعادلات وخصوصا عندما يكون ال | The process of estimation of parameters of the following equations has been done by the traditional method and being considered as an important subject. Many researches and books have been written about the subject and these researchers are different from one to another depended on the methods followed up. But the estimation with Bayesian methods for these equations , especially when the internal variables (classified binary ) being considered one of the subjects that have not been researched greatly. Thus , the researcher has tried to shed light on some methods of Simultaneous equations in case of binary variable by using the classic method and Bayesian method , along with a suggested way that being applied on the samples of the relationship between blood pressure and psychological pressure. The researcher has used the classic method and considered it as raw information for using the method of Bayesian in estimating the Simultaneous equations system. It has been compared between the classic method and Bayesian method and also methods of Bayesian with the suggested method according to the measurement of ( Mse) for specifying the better method for estimation. Problems have been specified lying in non - functionalizing the former information about the parameters in the process of estimation by using the known traditional methods and that lead to the less efficiency if not using it. Thus , it should resort to other methods as method of tradition , The goal of the study is to know the mutual interaction between the blood pressure and psychological pressure and comparing the traditional and Bayesian method in the estimation of Simultaneous equations of internal variable , classified binary by using many methods for Bayesian estimation with the suggested method for getting to estimations that are more close to values of the real parameters. it has been reached to many results ,most of which is the Bayesian method and suggested method that have been better in estimation than the classic method, besides there are mutual effects between blood pressure and psychological pressure and the most losing functions in estimation which is the " Q losing function"

استعمال الانتروبي مع طرائق اخرى في تقدير دالة بقاء توزيع كاما العام للسكان في العراق == Use The Entropy With Other Methods In Estimating The Survival Function of Generalized Gamma Distribution To The Population

Author name: رغدة زياد طارق العبيدي
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تستخدم جداول الحياة في مجالات عديدة في البحوث الديموغرافية والصحية وتمثل مؤشرا هاما للوفاة في المجتمع. ويتم احتساب جداول الحياة من بيانات الوفيات لسنة معينة للمجتمع السكاني، لذا فهو يعبر عن حالة الوفاة للمجتمع.وهناك نوعين من جداول الحياة وهي : (جداول الح | Life tables used in many fields in the demographic and health research is an important predictor of death in population. Then, calculated life tables of mortality data for a particular year the population of the community, so it reflects the rate of death of the community in somehow. There are two types of life tables, called : (Complete Life tables) and were based on the age at death on the basis of single - year age groups (0,1, 2,3,..., 81+) and were usually obtained in a manner comprehensive survey or census in order to provide detailed information on the population. The second type called (Abridged life tables) were assumed from equal death rate for ages converged with each other and are therefore based on the age at death on the five - year age groups (0 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 15,..., 80+) which is different from its predecessor and less accuracy than is obtained in a manner sample survey. In the absence of census of our beloved Iraq, where the last census was in (1997), so be getting the calculated probability of survival through accurate (survival function) within the life tables for single - year age groups was extremely difficult and mired with disorder problems you need to mathematical treatment in accordance with the distribution of probabilistic statistical but it's distributed data showed the distribution of the Generalized Gamma : (GG) with three parameters as the best fit of the data, with this distribution in turn includes the integration of (incomplete gamma function) is implicitly making it more difficult traditional appreciation. So two major goals were arise in this thesis.The first goal of a practical application goal, using (Sprague multipliers) to convert a five - year age groups into single age. The second goal of theory using the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : (POME) in assessing the function of survival and to deal and overcome the turmoil and volatility demographic data collected from (Iraq Household Socio - Economic Survey : IHSES II 2012). This thesis had studied the function estimating survival data mentioned above on two parts : the first part, parametric estimation methods which is the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : POME, the Classical method is the Maximum Likelihood : ML. The second part, has included nonparametric method to estimate survival function by nonparametric method (Kernel Smoothing) been used as (Gaussian function). The estimation methods were compared using statistical criteria are the root mean squares error (RMSE), and the average absolute percentage error (MAPE). Among the most important conclusions, was the preference for a ML method and kernel method when a simulation to get the proportions views of the probability distribution (GG) and in a manner Inverse Transformation Method : ITM only single - year age groups sized by (n = 81) and repeat the experiment (300) replicates. As well as to reach that way entropy is the best method dealt with five - year age groups, where in the case of single - year age groups, the nonparametric kernel was best in when the practical application part. Life tables using MORTPAK program as it has been considered survival function results (UN) calculated values real and comparing the methods of the three appreciation. One of the main recommendations, the use of the (POME) to overcome the turmoil of demographic data, especially a five - year age groups and the use of Sprague data conversion from five - year age groups to transactions single - year age groups and the use of nonparametric method of kernel to assess the function of survival of the single - year age groups and entropy for five - year age groups data.

تحليل احصائي مقارن لواقع الصناعات الغذائية في العراق لسنة 2007 == Comparative Statistical Analysis of The Reality of The Food Industry In Iraq For The Year 2007

Author name: رعد عبد الرزاق علي
Supervisor name: سعد احمد عبد الرحمن النعیمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ‘تعد الصناعات الغذائية ركنا اساسيا من اركان الاقتصاد لما لها من قدرة وفاعلية على انعاش وتحريك مجمل العمليات الاقتصادية في البلاد. ولانجاز هذا البحث اعتمد الباحث على بيانات المسح الصناعي الزراعي الذي نفذ سنة 2007. استعمل الباحث اسلوب تحليل التباين ذي | Food industry is a cornerstone of the economy because of their ability and effectiveness in the rehabilitation and move the overall economic processes in the country. To accomplish this research the researcher depended on the agro - industrial survey data which was implemented in 2007. Researcher used the method of analysis of variance one - way, to make comparisons between the activities of different food. Was chosen for this purpose are five important variables : production, productivity, value added, fixed assets, number of employees. The results indicated the existence of significant differences between activities, in some provinces and the lack of significant differences in other provinces for these variables. As well as the researcher used the method of factor analysis, to study the problems faced by food establishments, to find out the problems that actually affect the performance level of the plant food. Has had problems related to exports the greatest weight in the composition of the Working President(I),namely : 1.Sellingpriceslow. 2.Externaldemand is not enough.3. Competitive exporters of the Middle East.4. Compete with Chinese products. 5. Compete with other exporters.6. The lack of information on foreign markets. 7. The existence of competition between the exporters and the Iraqis

تقويم بيانات الوفيات في العراق وتقدير بعض مؤشراتها == Evaluating Mortality Data In Iraq And Estimating Some Related Indices

Author name: رشا عادل سعيد
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد اتسع نطاق الدراسات الاحصائية ليشمل العديد من الميادين والقطاعات ومن ضمنها قطاع السكان، حيث اهتم الباحثون بدراسة مشاكل التعداد والقياسات المتعلقة بقطاع السكان كالولادات والوفيات والهجرة، وذلك لما لها من اهمية كبرى في مجال الادارة والتخطيط.فجاء هذا ا | The scope of statistical studies has been extended to consist many sectors. One of these sectors is population studies.The researchers studied the problems of census , and data collection related to population (i.e. Births , deaths and migration) , which is considered of great importance in the field of planning , management and development studies. This study comes as a part of the studies focused on demographic characteristics and concentrated on mortality , which is often faced by the problems of incomplete and incorrect data , mainly the lack of mortality records specially in developing countries. The study focused on mortality data in Iraq during the period 1987 - 1997 , aiming at evaluating and estimating some of the related indices such as (life expectancy at birth , age - specific mortality rates , etc.).The study excluded the region of Kurdstan (Arbil , Dohok and Sulaymania) because this region was not included in 1997 census moreover the difficulties in obtaining registered deaths in this region since 1991. The study compares three methods for estimating infant and child mortality rates (i.e. Brass method , Feeney method for estimating infant mortality and Preston - Palloni method) the study concluded that Brass method is the most relevant for estimating infant and child mortality in the light of the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. By using 1997 census data in Iraq and depending on UN. Model for developing countries (general model) , the study achieved to the adjustment of mortality probability (Logit method). In dealing with mortality for (over 5 years old persons) , three methods were compared for estimating completeness of recorded deaths (i.e. Brass growth balance method , Preston - Coale method and Bennett - Horiuchi method) based on the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. It was found that there was no reason for preferring one method on another , therefore , the three mentioned methods were used depending on registered deaths (collected from Ministry of Health data) for the period 1987 - 1997. The study results showed that Brass growth balance method was not relevant for the studied mortality data in the Iraqi society. therefore , its results were neglected , and the results of mathematical mean of Preston - Coale method and Bennet - Horiuchi method were considered as representative of completeness of recorded deaths. It was found (0.725) for males and (0.845) for females.In order to estimate some mortality indices , bridged life tables were built for the years 1997 and 2002 for males and females in Iraq. The analysis showed the rise of life expectancy at birth about (1.2) years for males and (1.3) years for females during the above mentioned period.Finally , the study discuses its conclusions and recommendations.

تحليل الاهداف الانمائية للالفية في العراق == Study The Statistical Analysis of The Millennium Development Goals In Iraq

Author name: رسول هادي عبد المنعم
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The goal of the Millennium Development Goals is to promote development by improving social and economic conditions in the poorest countries in Amah at The United Nations Declaration on the Millennium adopted by all Member States in September - September - 2000 of the most important decisions of the General Assembly taken at the end of the last century, as is in a number of commitments aimed at improving the lot of man at the beginning of the third millennium, to conclude that these goals a commitment to development and security, peace and gender equality and the elimination of the multiple dimensions of poverty and achieve sustainable development. It should be noted that most of the goals set by the announcement of the Millennium is not new but derived from the recommendations of global conferences held in the nineties and which was adopted rules and international laws over the past Considered as indicators of the Millennium Development multifaceted, as it contributes in the monitoring of economic and social changes, in addition to the preparation of development plans to improve the status of activities that suffer from a lack of performance at the state level, either at the level of the world are through the provision of indicators for international comparisons, which helps in making decisions on economic, trade and deal with external debt... Etc., and come to the donor countries to take decisions on aspects of assistance, especially emergency assistance and direct form of assistance with time and according to the monitoring of changes in society. And that the goals are the results rather than inputs, where that eating the Millennium Development Goals focuses mostly on the eight goals and objectives of digital and the time frame for achieving them to be a reference to evaluate and monitor the development goals in countries Almokhtlfahomen this sense Akhtaralbages this research and using the system of statistical programs ready SPSS to get to the adoption of analytical methodology using my style factor analysis and cluster analysis in the analysis of these indicators at the level of the provinces where the state acquires Find in the Millennium Development Goals in Iraq is particularly important because of the national decline in the indicators of social and economic development and seek to adopt policies that are in achieving those goals.The research includes five chapters include the first chapter Mekdmaaama and the idea of the Millennium Development Goals, data sources and target research and methodology, and backgrounds of study submitted for analysis of global and cluster analysis and research topic also included Chapter II Showing the Millennium Development Goals, targets and indicators with a brief description on the indicators that have been taken under consideration and an outline of the efforts made in the Arab region in achieving the Millennium Development Goals and the statement of its progress and achievements and its attention to these goals, the third chapter has included explaining factor analysis and cluster analysis used in the statistical analysis included the fourth quarter the interpretation of the results obtained through the study (Urban and Rural Areas), and attended, and Rural Areas [The fifth chapter has included the conclusions and recommendations

دراسة نظرية وتطبيقية لشبكات بيرت الاحتمالية

Author name: ربى رشيد عبد الرحمن الجلبي
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر شبكات الاعمال من الادوات المهمة في التخطيط والسيطرة على مراقبة تنفيذ المشاريع باقل كلفة ووقت ممكن اذا ما توفرت الموارد التي تغطي حاجة تلك المشاريع.ونظرا لاهمية موضوع شبكات الاعمال ارتاينا البحث فيه بهدف التوصل الى طريقة لحساب وقت انجاز المشروع الك | Networks are considers as the most important instruments in the planning are controlling probation of projects implementation with minimal cost and time if there are sufficient resources cover the need of these projects.And respect to the importance of the topic regarding networks, we saw the search in it so as to reach method for calculating time of implementation of the total project in Probabilistic PERT networks, which are different from PERT networks because each stage in Probabilistic PERT networks represent random variable which has certain probabilistic distribution. So, time of implementation of the project will be another random variable, while in PERT method the times being already specified for each stage. We shall calculating this time after finding the total probability function for networks of the project.Moreover, we shall perform striking the necessary time to doing PERT network by application Fulkerson method which depends on every possible investigations to perform the project’s stages, which concentrate on that which have the maximum possibility of an event, and so the Fulkerson method being approximation to that which depends upon the probability function, but we shall concentrate in our research on the probability function because it gives additional indicators to the performing time. This will appears as clear through comparing the results that we shall reach after application the two methods. Where this was applied practical in one of our productive enterprises and it is the public enterprise of leather industries.According to above cited, we divided a thesis into four chapters; the first, takes the introduction and the objective of the probabilistic PERT networks topic as well as topic’s background, while the second chapter takes the theoretical aspect of the topic that encompass displaying method of PERT and an analysis that depend upon beta distribution besides displaying the symbols used in Fulkerson’s method to finding the expected time for implementation of the total project and finding variance of time regarding the total implementation and then estimating the probability function to the project time. The third chapter takes an applied aspect of the topic, so after gathering data, we tested it for conformity goodness of fit and then, we calculated mean and variance of the time regarding project total performing according to PERT and Fulkerson methods, and then we have finding the mean using probability function after estimate it.The most important what we have reached from the conclusions and the recommendations we shall display it in the fourth chapter of the thesis

استعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز للتنبؤ بكمية الانتاج لبعض المنتجات النباتية والحيوانية في محافظة بغداد == Using Box And Jenkins Models To Forecasting The Amount of Production of Some Plant And Animal Products In Baghdad Province

Author name: رباب علي عبد الرحمن السهيل
Supervisor name: ايمان محمد عبد الله المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد القطاع الزراعي المتمثل بالانتاج النباتي والحيواني في العراق من القطاعات الرئيسة في الاقتصاد العراقي اذ يساهم في تكوين الناتج القومي الاجمالي، ويعد اهمال القطاع الزراعي من المراحل الاولى لظهور بوادر الازمة الغذائية احد اهم العوامل الكامنة وراء تعميق ال | The agricultural sector of plant and animal production in Iraq is one of the key sectors of the Iraqi economy wich contributes to the formation GNP, the neglect of the agricultural sector from the early stages of the emergence of signs of food crisis. One of the main factors behind the deepening food shortages in addition to the lack of succes of agricultural policies in placet o reduce the dependency of food outside and achieve self - suffciency in the country and that any development strategy to achieve food security in the country must take a development in the agricultural sector. To be able to study the changes that happen in the economic phenomena in the future and determining the values of these changes has tob e set up to rely on time - series analysis and that the time series have some numerical values for a statistical index that reflects the change phenomenon for time, and there are some analysis for the series in time zone from the most important statistical methods that are used to predict the values of random phenomena in the future based on what happend in the past, wich helps in future plan for a peaceful economic development and the most important methods are the time series model developed by the Box - Jenkins methodology for a seasonal subseries plot or a spectral plot. The research aims to predict the amount of domestic production and import of all of the Tomato and Chicken, so using the best model of the Box - Jenkins models.And in the search data to quantity of domestic production and import of each tomato and chicken in Baghdad province - Iraq BI - monthly inputs for time zone between January 2012 until december 2014, at rate of 72, the data was obtained from the directorate of Agriculutral - Baghdad Al Reafa - Statistics department. It’s also has been updated into the gretl program. The study consisted of both the theoretical side of the identification of the theoretical foundations of the Box - Jenkins methodology of the time series and after that the applied to the side of the the best model to predict domestic production to quantity and import of each tomato and chicken, after all that the researcher have a some conclusions and recommendations that benefit the peaceful development and plans for the advancement of the agricultural sector and the most important thing is, that the imported Tomatoes and Chickens is more than the locally produced ones, which indicates that the country depends on the imported Tomatoes and Chickens more than the produced.

اثر عوامل الجذب والطرد لسكان المحافظات في العراق للفترة (1997م - 2011م) (عدا اقليم كوردستان) : دراسة احصائية == The Effect of Attraction And Expulsion Factors of Population In The Provinces of Iraq For Period (م 1997 - م2011) (Except Kurdistan) - Statistical Study

Author name: دري حميد جاسم السلامي
Supervisor name: سعد احمد عبد الرحمن النعیمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد نظرية عوامل الجذب والطرد من اكثر النظريات شيوعا في تحليل الاسباب التي تدفع بالافراد الى الهجرة، وتقوم النظرية ببساطة على ان الناس تهاجر لان هناك عوامل طاردة لهم من موطنهم الاصلي، او ان هناك عوامل جاذبة لهم في المنطقة المضيفة.لهذا السبب اهتم هذا الب | The theory of attractions and expulsion are the most common theories in the analysis of the causes that drive individuals to immigration, the theory is simply that people migrate because there are factors expelling them from their place of origin, or there are factors attractive to them in the host region.For this reason interested in this research study this phenomenon aided statistical analysis (using multiple linear regression method), to determine the factors of attraction and expulsion and to identify the size of the migration of the population in the provinces of Iraq (Excluding the Kurdistan region), the currents and trends and any areas more attractive to residents, which is more parcels of the population, as well as knowledge of migrations and coming out of each of the five governorates century on the level of Iraq, according to the results of the general census of the population in 1997, And projections up to 2008, data and the results of the inventory and punctuation for the year 2009 and projections up to the year 2011, and the data that has been obtained from the concerned ministries official (Health, education, agriculture, electricity), study of the impact of health factors, And education, agriculture and services (electricity and water) on this migration.The researcher found that there are some factors have an impact in some provinces attractant as the number of schools in the province of Nineveh, unlike others with influence reverse as the number of faculty members in Basra province, and

تاثير الغام الحروب على الرقع النفطية باستخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية : دراسة حالة - محافظة البصرة == The War Mines Effectet In The Oil Spots By Using Geographic Information Systems /Wasit Governorate - Case Study

Author name: دعاء يوسف عبد الرحمن
Supervisor name: محمد جاسم محمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نتيجة للحروب التي مر بها العراق على حدوده الشرقية ,والقصف الذي تعرض له خلال حرب الخليج (1980 - 2003) اصبحت العديد من الاراضي تحتوي على الالغام والمخلفات الحربية ,مما ادى الى ظهور مشكلة عدم استثمار الرقع النفطية التي تقع تحت المساحات الملغومة ,حيث تم استعم | The wars rate that Iraq pass it at the eastern borders, And the bombing he faced during the gulf war (2003 - 1980 ) many areas became contain Mines and remnants of the war. Causing a problem of not investing the oil spot which fall under mined areas , Geographic information systems was used in spatial analysis of the mines problem in Basra through natural distribution standard.After identifying the areas of mines presence calculated the cost by the government due to the presence of mines and remnants of war inside the oil field ( Sindbad ) and the ninth spot which are located nearby the Iraqi - Iranian border the reason for planting of many minefields by the Iraqi government and the Iranian government was that the wars which took a place in this area , And the study showed that the presence of mines and remnants wars within the oil spots the government must have a financial obligations to clear these areas from mines and make it safe for the extraction of crude oil.Although the study showed that the geographical distribution pattern of mines at the study area ( Basra ) it is close to the pattern of massed because the gathering of dangerous areas at the middle of Basra due to the proliferation of remnants of wars as a result from the air and ground bombardment to vital facilities inside the governorate. From this above we conclude not to leave and neglect any oil spot containing mines and wars remnants and conducting surveys and removals for the purpose of clearing them from the wars remnants and make it safe for the purpose of investment to benefit from oil imports , especially that the world oil price will decline over time , And to provide full protection of oil fields and wells from terrorist and military operations In spite of they are frequently locked to sabotage as arson operations by ISIS

تشخيص وتقدير دالة الانحدار اللامعلمي للبيانات المزدوجة في حالة عدم تحقق بعض فرضياته == The Diagnosis And The Estimation of The Nonparametric Regression Function of The Panal Data In Case Some of Its Hypotheses Are Not Verified

Author name: دريد حسين بدر
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اكتسبت نماذج البيانات المزدوجة اهتماما بالغا وخاصة في الدراسات الاقتصادية والطبية والمالية لانها تاخذ في الاعتبار اثر التغير في الزمن وكذلك اثر التغير في المشاهدات المقطعية على حد سواء في بيانات عينة الدراسة، فضلا عن وصف البيانات من خلال تقدير الانموذج ا | Panel data models have gained a great importance especially in economic, medical, epidemic and financial studies. Because these models take into consideration the impact of the change in time, the impact of the change in sectional views alike inherent in data of a study sample, in addition to describing data through Estimation of the appropriate model. In this thesis, we address the use of method of nonparametric regression in diagnosing and Estimation a model of panel data , as there are specific assumptions related to vector of random errors are not verified. This is because we are going to talk about a nonparametric problem and existence of Heteroscedasiticity and Auto correlated errors which make the process of Estimation wrong, or sometimes not possible. A model has been diagnosed through disclosing all of the problem of Heteroscedasiticity through the use of test (1996) (Zheng) and the problem of Auto correlation by suing test (2013) (Su and Lu). It has been indicated through handling a Nonparametric Hausman Test that the final model adequate for research data is Nonparametric Panel Data Model with Random Effects. Thus, finding Nonparametric Estimator has been tackled through dealing with each problem individually alongside with addressing methods of choosing the smoothing Bandwidth of the model of Random Effects. In case of correlated errors for all techniques of Nonparametric Regression, there are methods to deal with this problem, however all of the said depends critically on addressing estimation methods reliant on finding the choice of an optimal smoothing Bandwidth using more accurate standard until the removal of error process to attain an edited smoothing Bandwidth , of any correlation, is achieved. Then, we could Estimation a model by using Estimation methods. In case of Heteroscedastisity, treatment could be achieved through determining weight by Kernel Estimator, then to be used for the exclusion of the effects of Heteroscedasticity in the study variables through using estimation methods and provision of proposals for classic Nonparametric methods. The formulation of simulated experiments of used models and verification of performance of traditional and proposed methods, for all sample sizes and three levels of standard deviation trough the use of (RAMSE) standard, have been carried out in this thesis. One of the most significant objectives of this study is the selection of the best Estimation method produced by simulation through applying it on a group of balanced Panel Data (longitudinal). This could be conducted through carrying out a practical application to state the effect of the role of gross domestic product on fixed market prices measured in a US Dollar (x) in the state budget measured in millions US Dollars (y) for the period (2003 - 2015). This could be approached through depending on genuine data related to general budget for the Arab States measured by millions US Dollars. The gross domestic product has been focused on since it is the most important economic variable that impacts the budget, as an explanatory variable according to the viewpoint of the competent people for the period (2003 - 2015). The main conclusion in the experimental side is a clear preference in absolute terms to the fortified proposal of Least Square Support Vector Machine for Regression by using an (MGCV) standard on other used Estimation methods. This is in case existence of Auto Correlation as well as provision of a verified proposal for Propose (LCNE), relying on a Span, a selection standard, on other used Estimation methods in case existence of Hetroscedasticity, of all sample sizes, all cases and three levels of three standard deviation. As to practical side, an appropriate model has been diagnosed. Also, compatibility of the best method has been proven in the experimental side alongside with practical one, and the most appropriate for a model by using (RAMSE) standard

حول تصاميم القطع المخططة

Author name: داليا هشام عبد الرحمن الشيخلي
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لا شك فيه ان للتجارب العاملية اهمية كبيرة في دراسة تاثيرات العوامل الرئيسية وتفاعلاتها، وتعد تجارب القطع الشريطية او المخططة Strip - plot Experiments او ما يسمى بتجارب القطاعات المنشقة split - Block Experiments احدى فروع او حالات التجارب العاملية حيث | There is no suspicion that the practical experiment have a great importance in studying the major factors and their activities ,and the Strip - Plot experiment or what it called Split - Block experiment considered as one of the practical experiments brunches where the steps are divided in the Analyzing Differentiation Diagram to three combinations , the first one is for the queues, the second one is for the colons, and the third one is for the experimental units which produced from crossing the queue with the colon with noticed that the horizontal and vertical strips should be in a vertical line with each other so there is no relation between their sizes. The levels of one factor normally distribute randomly over the strips of the queues and the levels of the other factor, and also randomly over the strips of the colons. By changing the randomization category (put the restrictions on the way of randomization) many kinds of designing the Strip - Plot appears. Hence, the aim of this research came to put the spot on these categories and put their mathematics sample, the statistical analyzing of each category, their usage’s, their characteristics, their features and their standard mistakes and to test the differences between the treatments average by using the method of Least Significant Differences. We cleared how to treat the problem of the one replication (because of loosing the mistakes) to test hypotheses by two methods. Finally we applying the kinds of the strip - plot designs practically standing on an experiment diagrams done in Abo Guraib Station yield that belong to Eebaa Center For Agricultural Researches. The program was written in ( Visual Basic ) language to make the statistic analysis for these experiments and applying practically the treatment of the repetition one.

استعمال اساليب السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بالتضخم الشهري في العراق للسنوات 2017 - 2021 == Using Time Series Models To Forecasting The Monthly Inflation In Iraq For (2017 - 2021)

Author name: خوله جعفر احمد
Supervisor name: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يشكل التضخم عائقا امام تنمية الدولة لما يقع عليه من اضرار اقتصادية واجتماعية لذا تحرص الدول على متابعة سلوكه احصائيا من اجل اخذ الحيطة والحذر والحيلولة دون ارتفاعه عن طريق اتخاذ القرارات السليمة ورسم السياسات الكفوءة.لذا يهدف البحث الى ايجاد افضل انموذ | Inflation forms an obstacle to the country's development because due to its influence on the economic and social damage, so the state is keen to follow up on its conduct statistically in order to take caution and prevent rising through sound decision - making and efficient fee policies.So research aims to forecast the inflation rates Through a series of inflation on the one hand and a series of indices on the other hand, for the period (Jan 2017 - Dec 2021) and reaching any strings best in the prediction by models (Box - Jenkins) and based on the indices data for the period (Jan 2009 - Dec 2015), through the modeling of the data in accordance with the methodology (Box - Jenkins) to build models starting from the diagnosis stage and the ending in the stage to predicting forecasting ,so several types of (ARIMA) models have been proposed, including choosing the most appropriate model specimen , according to the trade - off criteria (RMSE, MAPE , BIC, AIC, Schwarz, Hannan - Quinn), then used the possible greatest function in the estimation of the model specimen parameters, it has conducted tests (Ljung - Box, test my own confidence and Normal distribution of errors test) to determine the appropriateness of the model diagnosed, and then made a future forecasts according to the model, specimen It is better to get of the results based on the ready softwares (SPSS - 22) and the program (Gretl - 1.1) and the results that have been reached were, series of inflation rates stable in mean ,seires indices of consumer prices is'nt stable, where it has a general trend stabilized after taking the first difference and depending on the test (Augmented Dickey Fuller), and was reached that the best model for forecasting inflation of inflation series is a specimen ARIMA (0,0,2) (1,0,1)12 and using the indices series is a model ARIMA (0,1, 2) (1,0,0) 12 and if we make a comparison between the two models forecasting predictions concluded that the forecasting prediction by using a series of inflation gives better results than using the indices to predict a series where the average to smooth the predicted average inflation closer to the original series and therefore, the predictive values of rates inflation closer to the values of the original series viewing And that curve prediction of a series of inflation rates better than the curve predictions using the indces as he gave finer predictions and longer periods of time.

تقلبات سعر صرف الدينار العراقي للمدة من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005 والتنبؤ بسعره في المستقبل باستخدام سلاسل ماركوف == Fluctuating of The Iraqi Dinerexchange Rate Since 1996 Until Mid 2005 And Forecasting It In The Future By Using Markov Chains

Author name: خليل برهان الدين فرمان السعدي
Supervisor name: صباح منفي رضا الشمري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان هذا البحث هو دراسة احصائية اقتصادية في مجال سعرالصرف بدراسته من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005، ويتلخص بهذه العبارة (( الحاضر جني الماضي والمستقبل غرس الحاضر)) وهو محاولة متواضعة لبلورة هذا السعرفي اسلوب علمي احصائي، وكانت سلاسل ماركوف خير معبرعن ذلك | This research is considered as a first statistical and economic study in the field of Exchange rate during the period from 1996 till midd 2005. It could be summarized with this sentence (present is the fruit of the past and the future is the plantation of present). Markov chains was used as a scientific statistical method in forecasting process being one of the easiest models. When the data at present is represented in three conditions (i.e high, low, and stable) and between the past, present and future, it was possible to achieve the ideal method in the analysis by using Maximum Likelihood method and Ordinary Least Square method in estimating transitional probabilities matrix. The probability values have been put for all stages and for both methods in one table. The period was divided to three phases according to the political circumstances in Iraq in addition to general phase. The results of the matrices were clean and independent when multiplied by (n) times as shown in attached annexes and in stationary distribution vector, when the probability values were stable for the three cases in definite number and for each phase. The conclusions achieved in the third phase and the possible study to rise Iraqi Diner value to a certain level has been coincided. Finally , the study submitted some useful recommenda - tions.

مقارنة اساليب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير منحنى الانحدار اللامعلمي == A Comparison of Bayesian Approaches With Other Methods For Estimating Nonparametric Regression Curve

Author name: خلود يوسف خمو يوسف
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد شهدت طرائق الانحدار اللامعلمي اهتماما ملحوظا في السنوات الاخيرة كان السبب في ذلك هو ان التفكير المعلمي الصرف المستخدم في تقدير منحنى الانحدار لا يتوافق مع المرونة في تحليل البيانات.ومع التطور المنجز في اجهزة الحواسيب من الناحية المادية وكذلك انجاز | In recent years, too many considerations have been given for the Nonparametric Regression methods. This is for the reason that the concept of pure parametric; used for the estimation of Regression curve, does not cope well with the flexibility needed for data analysis.With the progress made in computer machines, in terms of economy and running performance, it has become possible to develop many of Nonparametric Regression methods theoretically. Though many of these are still under perfection, and facing a number of problems.Hence we see the importance of focusing on methods related to smoothing of Nonparametric Regression functions. This is for the purpose of producing the best methods convenient for various models. And for the Distribution Random error, in its two cases; Normal and Contaminated. Thus, the most important purpose of the research, is to find what the studies so far, have offered in the field of Nonparametric Regression. Also to find alternative or modified methods; which are reliable for the treatment of conditions of failure regarding the methods in use, as well as to alleviate the complexity of some methods, especially those related to Bayesian procedures.One of the most outstanding aims of the research focuses on the study of Nonparametric Regression using Bayesian variable selection. This suggests a modified technique to be reliable and of less complexity than the original one.Amongst the other research intentions, when data are contaminated with outliers, is to explore the Robust Nonparametric Regression, using Bayesian variable selection method. Also to suggest a modified Bayesian method; resistant to outliers, and of less complexity than before transformation. As well as offering suggested methods for Robust Nonparametric Regression. This is of the feature of having less sensitivity towards outliers and reliable in comparison to very few techniques supplied with robustness, as the Bayesian approach.A simulation model has been performed with different distributions, for the random error and for a number of models.To verify the performance of such methods, many criteria have been carried out.To satisfy the purpose of this research, the study has been divided into five chapters. Chapter I consists of an introduction, the problem under research, its importance and purposes. It also covers a literature survey. Chapter II covers methods for smoothing Nonparametric Regression. While chapter III is devoted for Nonparametric Regression and Robust Nonparametric Regression using Bayesian variable selection method. Also in this chapter are details of the suggested methods. Then chapter IV implements the experimental part of the study. Finally chapter V comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the research has recommended. As well as the future studies, which have been proposed regarding this research.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة المعولية للتوزيع الاسي الخليط مع تطبيق عملي == Comprastion Between Methots Estimator Reliability Function of Of A Mixture Exponential Distribution With A Practical Application

Author name: خضر نصيف جاسم البياتي
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاهتمام المتزايد في دراسة نماذج الفشل جاء نتيجة للدور الذي تضطلع به نظريه المعوليه ودالة الاخفاق بالتعامل مع الاعمار لدراسة ومعرفه سلوك اوقات الفشل في الزمن اللاحق, وتعتبر المعولية احد المقاييس للتعبيرعن اداء اي مفرد او نظام لفترة قادمة لذلك تعد المعو | Reliability theory and Hazard function have played a great role in the rapid interest in the study of failure models. These theories deal with the study of ages to investigate and study the behavior failure time at posterior time. Reliability theory is one of those standards that show the performances of any unite for an expected period of time. It is also considered an indicator for future planning.Accordingly, reliability theory is adopted to study and analyze behavior of failures and the factors behind such failures. To achieve this, the parameter estimators of failure models, with good prosperities and efficiency, are required to count the reliability estimation. Therefore, it is of keen significance to study the methods and techniques for getting the parameter estimators of failure including the parameter estimations of a mixture failure model. These estimations have a great role in reproducing complex cases of non - homogeneous populations. Like the importance of the normal distribution for biological studies, the exponential model is considered of a great significance for the study of failure models.The study aims to estimate the reliability function by employing various methods to estimate the model parameter exponential mixture. To achieve this objective, this study is divided into four chapters. Chapter I shows the introduction and the literature review. Chapter II defines some key concepts of the topic; it also presents the theoretical framework for the employed methods of estimation for a number of parameter estimator method’s complete sample of a mixture of two exponential distributions with different two parameter and percentage p. them of normal school such as Maximum likelihood method estimator and symbolizes her short (ML) and the method of moments and symbolized short (MO) and the least squares method and symbolizes her short(LS) and the least squares weighted and symbolized short (WL) and propose application Bayesian Method using (Lindley' s approximation) of this mixture distribution as not used in Iraq (by informed researcher) and study the behavior of a function failure rate for this distribution using expression w(t) which is also taught for the first time in Iraq, according to the informed researcher. Chapter III is divided into two sections. The first section includes the application of imitation style for generating data and performing a sample application based on the theoretical background. The second section reports about a field work on one of the public institutions for electrical industry. Chapter IV shows the results and conclusion of this study. It also suggests some recommendations for future research.

استخدام البرمجة الديناميكية لحل مشكلة جدولة انتاج متعدد لماكنة منفردة لكلفة خزين متغيرة == Using Dynamic Programming To Solve The Multi - Item Single Machine Scheduling Production Problem For Variable Inventory Cost

Author name: حيدر عدنان امير
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: الغرض من هذا البحث هو تطبيق اسلوب البرمجة الديناميكية Dynamic Programming لتخطيط الانتاج لمنتج واحد او اكثر بواسطة ماكنة واحدة ولعدة انواع من دوال الكلفة الخطية والمقعرة والمحدبة. سوف نهتم بتخطيط الانتاج لفترة زمنية مستقبلية تسمى ( فترة التخطيط ) Planning | The purpose from this research is to apply one of operations researches manners and its Dynamic Programming manner, to planning for one manufacturer or more and for many types from linear cost functions, convex and concave which are manufacture by lonely machine.We will pay attention in manufacturing planning for future chronological period named Planning Horizon for a machine is manufacturing many manufacturers with a machine changeover cost, where in this period the ordering average is change on the manufacturer, we’ll suppose too that the chronological space is divided to periods , the planning problem is happening by determining manufacturing average for every period in Planning Horizon , for knowing the ordering on every period is known but it’s not constant from each period to other which give it the Dynamic Form.In the research aim about how we planning for manufacturing period, so it will be study different models for cost function in one manufacturer case or more and apply an algorithm for each case and after that programming some of these algorithms to determining the best Planning Horizons where at them wholly cost function is might less.This subject consider as one of the important subjects in manufacturing operation fields, industrial operations, geometric operations and etc …For the important of leather industries, this subject apply on the factories of the Common Company of Leather Industries and that is happen by planning for outputting and stock to find less possible cost and the choice happen for four factories from the company and it’s : 1. Baghdad shoes factory ( Bata previously )2. kufa factory ( sporty shoes )3. Bags factory 4. Leather clothes factory And this by forming models to Dynamic Programming and it’s : 1. forward algorithm without disability 2. forward algorithm with disability 3. backward algorithm allow disabilityIt’s developing by the researcher to apply it in the multiple outputting and solve them and taking the results through a computer program written by the researcher for every model in Visual Basic Language.

استعمال بعض تصاميم التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة بالقياسات المكررة على مرض الثلاسيميا في محافظة واسط == Use Some Factorial Design of Experiments And Nested - Factorial By Repeated Measurements On Thalassemia In Wasit Governorate

Author name: حيدر رائد طالب
Supervisor name: قيـس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: انصب هدف الرسالة في امرين على درجة من الاهمية وهما اولا دراسة تحليلية لطبيعة التجارب بالقياسات المكررة لعدة تصاميم والتركيز على التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة وبناء النماذج الرياضية الخطية لهذه التجارب الذي يعتمد علية التحليل. لقد تم استعمال الط | Focused message in a two objective on the degree of importance and them first analytical Study to the nature of repeated measurements experiments for several designs and focus on the Nested - Factor Experiments and build linear mathematical models for these experiments upon which the analysis. It has been used several methods parametric to analysis these types of designs. which are difficult to analyze in sometimes because of the not provide conditions analysis of variance for repeated measurements experiments. The second objective of the message is application this kind of experience in the medical sector by studying a particular phenomenon characterized by a repeated measurements represented Thalassemia in Wasit province. Where he was studying three types of experiments the existence of a repeated measurements It is experiments with a one factor and have a repeated measurements on the same element, Factorial Experiment qxp repeated measurements on one factor, and Nested - Factorial experiment repeated measurements on one factor. As well as the use of methods of transfer to ranks (Rank Transformation) as one of the solutions that have made conditions analysis of variance to experiments measurements repeated of (distribution Normal random and independent for experimental error, homogeneity of variances, the lack of correlation between the averages and variances, spherical). Satisfactory because the transfer to ranks makes the data on the most homogeneous and normal, although we have identified a condition analysis of variance exclusively for the purpose of comparison by the value of the P - Value. The data can be described about Thalassemia in Wasit as follows : were assessed Standards quantities of iron (Fe) in the letter, groups this data classified into two groups, the first group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) and who have been subjected to the first chemotherapy (axja) by mouth for four treatment cycles (treatments) of each period lasts 30 days , and the second group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) who were exposed to second chemotherapy (Desferal) by injection into the skin or muscle of four treatment cycles (treatments), where each treatment cycle lasts 30 days. the most important conclusions that have been reached is that the Data Transformation by ranks led to the provision of analysis of variance conditions for experiments repeated measurements distribution the normal errors and homogeneity of variances and correlation between mean and variance, as well as a spherical condition. Through the four applications we believe that giving the first dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time and this type of treatment is used when high amounts of iron ratio. As well as when you give the second dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time, but at rates lower than the first treatment and this type of treatment is used when a weak proportion of iron in the blood of the patient.

مقارنة بين طرائق تقدير انحدار الحرف العامة في معالجة مشكلة التعدد الخطي شبه التام مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparisons Among The Generalized Ridge Regression Methods of Estimators Under Multicollinearity Problem With A Praxis

Author name: حنين مراد يوسف الصالحي
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يلقى موضوع خرق احد فروض الانحدار اهتماما واسعا وواضحا في معظم الدراسات لذلك تنبع اهمية هذا البحث من خلال الكشف عن احد هذه الفروض ومعالجتها والمتمثلة بـ وجود علاقة خطية بين اثنين او اكثر من المتغيرات التوضيحية والتي تدعى بمشكلة التعدد الخطي (Multicollinea | The violation of regression assumptions is one of the interesting topics in many fields. This thesis deals with multicollinearity problem by using some of generalized ridge regression methods (GRR, MJR, GJR, GL, AUGRR, and AUGL) as well as our proposed method (Almost unbiased Generalized Jackknife Ridge) (AUGJR). In addition, these methods are compared with parameter (k) in ridge and parameter (Liu D). These methods are evaluated based on the mean squared error (MSE) to obtain the best method of these methods with the suitable parameter.To evaluate these methods, we use simulation studies by using the R statistical program. Five variables are simulated with different sample sizes (n=15,20,60,300), different variances (0.16,0.13,0.18) and different correlation coefficients (r=0.16,0.13 and 0.18) with (s=10 and 2). The results show that AUGL, AUGJR and AUGRR are the best methods in terms of the MSE. The differences are very small among them. The methods are also evaluated based on real data example (Rail transport for the passengers and cargo), which is obtained from Iraqi Ministry of Planning.We first detected the problem of multicollinearity by using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Condition Index (CI). Then, we build a model of revenue for transportation after they have been estimating its features at the best methods.

افضل طرائق المعاينة في تقدير اعداد النخيل في محافظة البصرة == Optimum Sampling To Estimate Date Palm In Basrah Governorate

Author name: حنان سعيد مالك الراوي
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي | عدنان شهاب حمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان لكل اسلوب من اساليب المعاينة مزايا ومبررات في استخدامه، وغالبا ماترتبط عملية اختيار اسلوب المعاينة بجانبين اساسيين، اولهما معيار التجانس بين المفردات سواء على المستوى الكلي ام على مستوى اجزاء(او مجاميع) من المجتمع، وثانيهما الامكانات المتا | There is no doubt that each technique of sampling techniques has advantages and reason for using it, and mostly the correlation of choosing sampling technique with a essential two sides, first of them is the standard of homogenous between units as for all population, and the second one is the abilities that are available to fulfills survey. And in using Stratified Random Sampling Technique in evaluating the suitable population to apply an important role to get a high efficiency estimator to compare with other Sampling design. As the target of this searching is to get the best ways that increase the accurate estimation of the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate and in using different kind of sampling estimator, the comparison has been done between the mean variance of Simple Random Sampling and the mean variance of the Stratified Random Sampling, and it is clear in the comparative results hat using Stratified Random Sampling give the best estimation. The determination of strata boundaries (strata formation) have interested role in obtaining efficient estimators, several strategies of strata formation were constructed, it is proved that the approximated frequency strategy at ?= ½ is the most efficient, researchers discussed developing this strategy through using different values of (?), or different sample allocations. In this searching three approximately frequency had been applied , and to divide the population into strata and point out the optimum limit strata, and the sample allocation has been determined by using Neyman distribution. And it is clear in the result that using the approximated frequency is the nearest and efficient to estimate the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate, by counting the Stratification mean variance and the stratification mean for the three approximated frequency. And the reason to know wither the Stratified Random Sampling is efficient and better than the Simple Random Sampling in evaluating the Date Palms number the experiment of the hypothesis between two population has been used, the results of that experiment show the difference between the two means that lead to reject the Null hypothesis and to accept the Alternative hypothesis, according to this the search recommended to use the Stratified Random Sampling according to the new divided stratification by using frequency, taking into consideration using Neyman distribution o determine sample size and sample allocation

قياس الفقر متعدد الابعاد في العراق باستعمال مؤشرات اكسفورد OPHI == Measuring Multidimensional Poverty Using Oxford Indicators (OPHI)

Author name: حمدي محسن عليوي
Supervisor name: نبيلة عبد الهادي الشريف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الدراسات والبحوث التي تخص الفقر متعدد الابعاد لم تجد اهتماما الا في السنوات القليلة الماضية ولاسيما بعد ان اطلقت مبادرة اكسفورد التابعة لبرنامج الامم المتحده الانمائي تقرير التنمية البشرية لعام 2010، حينها اصبح الاتجاة بالتحول من نمط القياس الفردي الى | Studies and researches that concerned in multidimensional poverty did not find any attention, except for the last few years especially after the initiative of oxford - the report of human development of 2010, since then, the pattern changed from the single measurement to multi measurement, by describing poverty in many variables instead of one variable (income). According to the initiative of oxford - the report of human development, Multidimensional poverty on a national scale in Iraq contain five main dimensions dimension consists several indicators (education, basic services, level of living, feeding and health and employment), each dimension consists several indicators. This study came to measure multidimensional poverty and knowing the poor rate and the poverty severity, on a national scale in Iraq and its(18) governorates, and also on an Environmental Scale (rural, urban), and then using the analysis of multidimensional poverty (Principal component Method), to determine the variables causing in forming these elements which affect multidimensional poverty, on the other side, and the central statistical organization also can benefit from this study, because this method has been used in Iraq recently. The main conclusions of the research was that the multidimensional poverty has recorded differences in Poverty rates between the governorates, since that (Erbil) has recorded the lowest Poverty rate than other governorates, and when compared with (Wasit) which has recorded the highest Poverty rate, it will show that on each poor individual in (Erbil), on the other hand there is Five poor individuals in (Wasit), also the severity of poverty was high in all of the Governorates, even in governorates that has low poverty rates. On the Environmental scale (rural, urban), the multidimensional poverty in rural was four times bigger than urban. The results also shown that There are five main elements that affects multidimensional poverty on an Iraq scale, in another side, there were six elements effecting in (rural, urban) scale.

تقدير الدالة اللامعلمية للبيانات العنقودية == Nonparametric Regression Function Estimation of Clustered Data

Author name: حلا كاظم عبيد
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: البيانات العنقودية تظهر في الكثير من العلوم الاجتماعية والصحية والسلوكية. وتتميز هذا النوع من البيانات بوجود الارتباط بين مشاهداتها. وممكن التعبير عن العنقدة من حيث العلاقة بين القياسات على الوحدات ضمن نفس المجموعة فان النماذج الاحصائية تحتم على حساب الار | Cluster data appears in a lot of social, health and behavioral sciences. And featuring this type of data link between the presences of her observations. And possible expression of clustering in terms of the relationship between measurements on units within the same group, the statistical models makes it imperative for the link account at every level, because failure to do so leads to misleading results. Hence the importance inside the Observations link to the estimating of the function non parametric for cluster data where the use of parametric method for ICON is always desirable to estimate some functions Because of the shape of the data is unknown in advance the appropriate function or as a result of the existence of some obstacles so it is the use non parametric method to estimate (smoothing) Nonparametric function.. Research has shown developed in recent times on the use of non parametric regression when parametric the assumptions are unfulfilled. And non parametric regression allows greater flexibility of functions dependent variables resulting from the data. Previous research has touched on the case of cluster data estimating the ways non parametric and semi parametric methods and was adopted state of neglect of the link within the same cluster property data that distinguish cluster data is particularly. And local kernel estimator achieved more efficient negligently correlation within clusters (even if the correlation is in the interest the study). While some touched on the case taking correlation between Observations per cluster using the estimated equations. Others had created the kernel methods in the case of cluster data behave completely different from the behavior of the capabilities of the spline estimator as has achieved kernel methods results more efficient when the neglect of the link within the clusters, while spline methods results achieved less variance of smoothing fixed parameters at taking the link inside clusters into account in the estimation process.So in this thesis will be nonparametric function estimating for clustered data using the Seemingly Unrelated Kernel Estimators, and The Generalized Least Squares Smoothing Spline Estimators and propose Robust methods and comparison of the methods listed above to indicate the best estimate of the nonparametric function estimating for clustered data, taking into account the structure of the link within the clusters were cluster data, The adoption of cluster data, which has the same number of explanatory variables within each cluster. To achieve this, thesis was divided into five chapters, the first chapter included introduction and aim of the research and reference review, either Chapter II now include the theoretical side which discussed the methods used to calculate the non parametric function of cluster data in the presence of the link. While included Chapter III experimental side (simulation) and the application addressed method in the second chapter and the statement of the best way has less (MAE) or (MSE). and either the fourth chapter includes the applied side to the real data for the proportion of white blood cells and its impact on the proportion of blood per patient (cluster) and Chapter V which includes the most important conclusions and the recommendations.it is through simulation experiments have been finding the best way to estimate the non parametric function for cluster data and a way The robust Generalized Least Squares Smoothing Spline Estimators in the case of a correlation. It was the application of all methods of the practical side using real data about the proportion of white blood cells and their impact on the proportion of blood hemoglobin for patients with blood cancer (leukemia).

التحليل الاحصائي لتجارب القياسات المكررة للبيانات المصنفة == The Statistical Analysis For Experimental The Categorical Data of Repeated Measurement

Author name: حلا كاظم عبيد الصبيحاوي
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: حيث تم استعمال اختبار (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) على بيانات ذات معالجتين وكل معالجة بمستويين المتمثلة ببيانات مرض ضغط الدم ولدوائين وكل دواء بمستويين (ملائم وغير ملائم) ومن خلال الجانب التطبيقي تم الو | In this dissertation the study have concentrated on the use of repeated measurements tests of catcorigal data, where we used (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) tests on two treatments data, and every treatments with two levels which represent raised blood pressure data, and for two medications, each medication with two levels (appropriate and inappropriate), through the practical aspect, we concluded that the ratio of response for the two medication are the same. Also we used (Ireland & Ku & Kullback, Bhapkar, Stuart) tests on data with two treatments, each treatment has more than two levels that represent data of fifth grade (High school) for Arabic text book through years (2001 - 2004) in sumer high school, in which the first treatment represents the students grades in mid term exam, and the second treatment represented the student grades in final exam, through the practical aspect we gained an equivalent results in the previously mentioned methods (in which the students levels in mid term exam equivalent to that in final exam). We also used (Ireland & Kullback, Cochran) tests and weighted least squares (WLS) tests on three treatments data in which every treatment has two levels that represents data of student in the same grade, and in the same years for English text book in which the first treatment represents the first term average, and the second treatment represents the student's grade in mid year, and the third treatment represents the average of second term. And for two levels (Pass and failed), through the applicative of these test on these data we concluded that the level of any given student in first term is equal to the level in mid year and it's also equal to that in second term.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس باستخدام عينات مراقبة من النوع الثاني

Author name: حلا سلمان فرحان
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس اخذين بنظر الاعتبار وجود عينات مراقبة((Censored Data من النوع الثاني في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات بشكل دالة احتمالية اولية مشتركة لكل من معلمتي الشكل والقياس,حيث تم افتراضها حسب اسلوب الباحث(Jef | In this study have been estimated the survival function to Lomax distribution considering there was censored data (second Type) just in case if a primitive information were available about the indications as mutual primitive probability function for both : indications form & measure which assumed in order to method of the searcher (Jeffry) and also squared error loss function). So measured estimated pez S*(t) for survival function S (t) is the conditional expectation function S*(t) =E[S (t)/X].It has been used approximated methods to measure them because It is hard : to measure the complementary of numerator and denominator in a mathematics form by using Bayes method. One of these methods is the method of the searcher ( Lindley) while the other method was return to ( Tierrney and Kadon).In addition to methods formerly to estimate the survival function; the searcher has used the Shrinkage method. While she used the maximum likelihood method as a usual method for those which did not depend on the primitive information because the estimated thing had fixed quality.So, all this to make the comparison between these methods and the oldest one through simulation style by Mont - Carlo to get new estimation which carried the wanted qualities in the perfect estimated to get specific results : to choose the suitable estimation method.The searcher hade made the bayes (lomax distribution survival function) as the lindley manner was the best among the other manners to estimate lomax distribution survival function ,on general ;while the manner of the maximum likelihood method was the best manner among to other estimated manners for tiny simple size on private.

مقارنة احصائية للحالة الصحية لاطفال المحافظات الجنوبية دون الخمس سنوات بين عام 2006 و2011 == Statistical Comparison of The Health Status of Children Under Five Southern Provinces Between The Years 2006 And 2011

Author name: حسين عيسى مسلم القريشي
Supervisor name: اسماء نجم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: العراق هو احد الدول التي عانى اطفاله من ظروف صعبة جدا , فواقع العراق السياسي جعل اجيال عدة تعيش في ظروف انسانية غير طبيعية لعقود من الزمن ان هذا البحث يهدف الى اجراء مقارنة للحالة الصحية للاطفال دون سن الخمس سنوات في المحافظات الجنوبية بين2006 و2011 اعتم | Iraq is one of the states that children suffering from very difficult circumstances, the reality of Iraq's political make several generations living in abnormal humane conditions for decades that this research is aimed at a comparison of the health status of children under five years of age in the southern provinces between 2006 and 2011, a researcher in the study approved the cluster survey data multi - third variables in the 2006 survey cluster multi - fourth variables in 2011, which Ajerthm the Ministry of planning / Central Bureau of Statistics, was taking the most important influences on children's health, including malnutrition, disease, diarrhea, respiratory infections, vaccines, drinking water, sanitation health, quality of feeding, social, educational and axis through the use of style analysis world by using Principal Component analysis to derive the most explanation of the health status of the children of Iraq in two years, factors and through the use of some software statistical shelf SPSS to show results concluded the researcher as shown by the results of the analysis the World in 2006 for the provinces as a whole that there are five significant factors that control the thirteen variables involved in the search on the southern provincial level either in the year 2011 for the provinces, the results showed the presence of four significant factors that control the three variables ten We note that the number of factors decrease between two and it conclude that health status in advance, either for the environment. in the year 2006 showed the results of factor analysis of the present, there were five significant factors that control the variables as a whole Lama in 2011 Veugd also five influential moral factors in health status and conclude that there is no difference in health status between the two for the present, As for the countryside were the results of the analysis the global him that he showed in 2006, there are five significant factors that control the thirteen variables involved in the search and in the year 2011, the results showed the presence of five moral factors controlling the variables and here we conclude that the lack of difference in the number of factors for the countryside between the two but there is an increase in the strong variables within the factors in the year 2006, which infer the existence of a very simple interest in rural health. the results also showed that the strongest variables influence the health aspect which vaccines variables making it one of the most important variables for the years 2006 and 2011 and we can call this component component health and that the strongest variables and rank second is the second component as included variables (diarrhea, coughing disease, the quality of the land housing, child's height, weight of the child, breastfeeding, the child's age, number of children under five years in the family) and we can call this vehicle as the (environment Child). It is the most important recommendations were are 1 - Give the subject of child health under five years of great interest by the state and the provision of supplies for all of it 2 - the need for attention and attendance routine vaccines to take the vaccines in a timely manner with the need to keep Bacart vaccines to know when the vaccine 3 - Increase health campaigns carried out by the Ministry of Health and for more than a vaccine as well as increased dropouts campaigns for all routine vaccines

بناء نموذج صفوف الانتظار باستخدام المقدرات الحصينة لقسم الباطنية / مستشفى بغداد التعليمي == Building Queuing Models Using Robust Estimators For The Department of Internal / Baghdad Teaching Hospital

Author name: حسنين حامد احمد الطائي
Supervisor name: مروان عبد الحميد عاشور
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان للشواذ الاثر الاكبر في عملية تقدير معلمات توزيعي الوصول والخدمة لنماذج صفوف الانتظار، عليه كان لابد من استعمال طريقة لاختبار هل ان هذه البيانات تحتوي على قيم شاذة ام لا، فجرى استعمال طريقة ( Tukey ) لهذا الغرض، وقد تبين ان هناك مشاهدات شاذة في مقدرات | As the Outliers greatest impact in the process of estimating the distribution of arrival and service parameters, it was necessary to use the method to test Are these data contain abnormal values or not, ran the use method ( Tukey ) for this purpose and is of the most popular ways to discover the outliers, and have found that there are views abnormal ( outliers ) in the estimators of a distributed both arrival and service, which have a significant impact on the calculation of these estimators have been addressed through the use of robust estimation methods ( Robust estimation methods ) be of the effectiveness and feasibility of giving robust estimator better than the estimated normal extracted function in a manner as possible the greatest normal ( Ordinary Maximum Likelihood estimation ) ( MLE ) , as was the use of the estimators of the greatest possible function weighted ( weighted Maximum Likelihood estimation ) ( WMLE ) in the estimation process, was the best estimate is the estimated robust existence of outliers that have had the greatest impact on the process of improving the efficiency of the performance of a queueing theory, which led to relieve pressure on the service system, which in turn reduces delays for patients.Robust queues models applied and their role in improving the performance of the Department of Health in Baghdad / city of Medicine / Baghdad Teaching Hospital / Advisory clinic esoteric. It was found that the views of extremist dramatically affect the outcome queue estimates of the distributional arrival and service which will reflect negatively on the measurements of the efficiency of performance indicators queuing system and therefore it leads to non - solid results because that way possible ( Robust Maximum Likelihood Estimation ) ( RMLE ) used in the process of estimating the parameters were the best way possible regular ( MLE ) , as the method used was able to find robust estimator good efficient and of great effectiveness and that processed data containing outliers in the sample.Through Applied study of data researcher found that the queue model was (M / M / C) : ( GD / ? / ?) at a rate of three doctors who represent a number of service channels and the size of the community, as well as the size of both unlimited system.The key findings of the research is to adopt robust estimators for distributional arrival and service models queues in general because they are working to address the impact of outliers winning in the data.

استعمال خوارزمية البحث المتناغم المركبة لحل مسالة التخصيص التربيعية مع تطبيق عملي == Using Combinatorial Harmony Search Algorithm For Solving Quadratic Assignment Problems With Practical Application

Author name: حسن عبد الستار ابراهيم
Supervisor name: عبد المنعم كاظم حمادي الشكري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتضمن هذا البحث ثلاث مراحل اساسية المرحلة الاولى تضمنت دراسة موسعة لمسالة التخصيص التربيعية (Quadratic Assignment Problem) من حيث الصيغ وطرق الحل والحدود الدنيا لدالة الهدف وبعض التطبيقات المهمة للمسالة والمرحلة الثانية تتضمن بناء خوارزمية لحل المسالة , ا | This research includes three Basic phases the first phase included an extensive study of the Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) in the formulas and methods of solution and Lower Bound of objective function and some important applications of the Problem and the second phase includes construction of algorithm for solving the Problem, used Harmony Search algorithm in this research but added the improvement Procedures to increase the Performance of algorithm and speed up access to the optimal solution of the problem, The algorithm consists of two phases, the first phase will improve all the existing solutions in the Harmony Memory use some improvement measures is the property of Crossover used in genetic algorithm and also guided search to reduce the objective function, the second phase will depend on the Procedures of the Harmony search algorithm (HS) but using a new Improvise, The algorithm has proven its efficiency in solving the problem is resolved (15) standard problem from the special library of Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAPLIB), and compare the results with the local search algorithm (LS), Tabu search (TS), Simulated annealing (SA) after solving each problem (25) times and record the results of the algorithm shown open her with total access to the optimal solution (282) of the total (375) repetition of the test as the total reached the local search algorithm (2) Simulated annealing algorithm (117) and Tabu search algorithm is (174). The third phase of the research included the use of the (QAP) in the process of designing websites towers networks of the Ministry of Oil to connect the gas stations in Baghdad province to determine the main towers of the project where the use of the Combinational Harmony search algorithm in resolving the Problem after resolving the problem was determine the location of towers , sites first tower area (Yarmouk) as the second tower (Sadr City) and the third tower in the area (Karada) and fourth in the Tower (Adhamiya) and then use the Generalized Assignment model in distribution subsidiary turrets to The main tower and the new design of the towers the effectiveness of Quadratic Assignment problem in organizing sites.

مقارنة فترة الثقة مع الفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل مع تـطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Confidence Interval With Bayesian Interval For The Linear Compination of Nest Factor Means (With Application)

Author name: حسام موفق صبري الدليمي
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد دراسات المقارنة بين طرق تقدير المعلمات من الدراسات المهمة التي تاخذ حيزا واسعا في البحوث الاحصائية، لذلك تهدف هذه الدراسة الى اجراء مقارنة من خلال الفترات بين فترة الثقة والفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل في تصميم متداخل متزن لمرح | A Comparison studies among parameters estimation approaches are important studies that take a large space in statistical searches. So that the purpose of this study is to make a comparison through the intervals between the confidence interval and the Bayesian interval for linear combination of nest factor means in a two stage balanced nested design.The confidence interval was found by using an advance approach in inference called (Mixed Inference), and the Bayesian interval was found by using another approach in inference called (Bayesian Inference), then a comparison was happened between the two intervals (obviously the two kinds of inference).We apply this comparison on a real data experiment represent weights of vetch planet in (1998), and by using simulation. The results of the real data experiment and simulation shows an important conclusion which said that the confidence interval for linear combination of nest factor means is better than the Bayesian interval of the same linear combination for any suggestion confidence coefficient.Finally, An assumption study established to know the causes that leads to that important conclusion

تحليل التباين متعدد المتغيرات لتصميم القطع المنشقة - المنشقة == Multivariate Analysis of Varaince For Split - Split Plot Design

Author name: حسام عبد الرزاق رشيد البكري
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: This research work is a study of multivariate analysis of variance model (MANOVA) for the design of split - split plot to a complete randomized block. As it is an important method for determining whether the response variables are influenced with each other or in other words whether the correlation between the variables of a force such that it influence the decision taken concerning the applied hypothesis. When we don’t ignore the relationships which are created between the responses variables lead us to generalize the tests in the univariate analyses about the means of normal population to be changed to tests involving mean vectors responses taken from multivariate normal population. Ignoring the existing relationships between variables lead us to untrue conclusions, so in doing the (MANOVA) gives us a full picture of the experimental factors and their interaction in the experiment as a whole. The concentration on doing the (MANOVA) should not be at the expense of the study of the univariate analysis. So the research work involves the problem of heterogeneous in sub - sub plot variances, which is considered one of the important problems put forward by other researchers which may limit his work in special procedure. We are interested in solving this problem by using a univariate analysis procedure after splitting the error of sub - sub plot and then finding the standard deviation used in comparison testing between about the third factor (c). Then comparing them with the standard deviation used, if we assume the existence of homogeneity in variances of sub - sub plot.

استخدام اسلوب بيز التجريبي في تقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي == Using Empirical Bayes Approach For Estimating Parameters In A Linear Regression Model

Author name: حازم منصور كوركيس عربو
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The primary purpose of our thesis is to assess the importance of using empirical Bayes approach in regression analysis. At the first some empirical Bayes techniques in point estimation are considered. It is well known that in point estimation with a squared error loss function the Bayes estimator is the posterior mean. In the empirical Bayes approach we must construct a consistent sequence of estimators for this posterior mean using past experience. This construction is done for three general families of distributions. New estimators for the parameters in the simple orthogonal linear regression model are presented using not only the usual random sample of observations but also past experience in the form of previous estimators of parameters in similar but independent situations. The regression parameters are considered to be random variables. Bayes estimators are given for a squared error loss function. Even though the prior density of the parameter is unknown the Bayes estimator can be written in terms of the marginal density of sufficient statistic. This marginal density can be estimated empirically , thus forming the empirical Bayes estimator. Empirical Bayes estimators for the parameters in the general linear regression model are presented. These estimators by pass exact knowledge of the prior distribution of parameters by means of supplementary informations from similar independent experiments. The case in which the error variance is unknown and may vary from one experiment to the next is included. Some basic concepts in shrinkage estimators are introduced. The definition of multicolinearity as the existence of near linear relationships among the independent variables is given. Effects of multicolinearity on estimated regression coefficients are explained. Sources of multicolinearity and methods of detecting multicolinerity are presented. The method of ridge regression is given as one of several methods that have been proposed to remedy multicolinearity problems by modifying the method of least squares to allow biased estimators of the regression coefficients. The technique of ridge regression first proposed by Hoerl and Kennard has become a popular tool for data analysts faced with a high degree of multicolinearity in their data. Ridge solution properties and methods for choosing the ridge parameter are presented. The first method is graphical applied by using graphical display called 'ridge trace' the second method is the iterative method proposed by Hoerl and Kennard. The equivalence of ridge regression estimator with Bayers estimator is proved. Bayesian methods are employed for choosing the ridge parameter. An empirical Bayes estimator of the ridge parameter is presented. An empirical Bayes estimator of the ridge parameter which result in minimax ridge regression estimator under strawderman's loss function (formula 2.81) is also presented. By minimax estimator we mean an estimator which is uniformly better than the least square estimator in terms of risk. In the practical part of the thesis we apply ridge regression analysis to the set of actual data suffer from multicolinearity. Three methods are employed to determine the value of the ridge parameter. Comparisons between the three methods are made on the basis of various statistics that might go into the choice of the ridge parameter. According to these comparisons we conclude that the value of the ridge parameter obtained by using empirical Bayes approach (formula 2.78) is better than the other two methods. Ridge analysis is repeated for another set of experimental data obtained by constraint simulation. The same conclusion is obtained when the dependent variable is any one of the variables Y2 ,..... Y6.

مقارنة بعض طرائق التقدير اللا معلمية لنموذج الانحدار التجميعي المجزا باستعمال المحاكاة مع التطبيق == A Comparison of Some Nonparametric Estimation Methods of An Additive Quantile Regression Model Using Simulation With Application

Author name: جنان عبد الله عنبر
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان استعمال النماذج المعلمية يتطلب توافر معلومات كافية عن الظاهرة المدروسة مع معرفة المجتمع الذي سحبت منه العينة وان تكون معلماته معرفة لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثين الى البحث عن نماذج ا | Using of the parametric models requires a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models, so too many considerations have been made for the Nonparametric Regression, in the last years. The main reason of that was the researchers’ belief that pure parametric methods for estimating the regression curve have shortage with the flexibility needed for data analysis - especially the quantitative data - . With the progress made in computers, in both hardware and software, it has become possible to develop many of Nonparametric Regression Methods including the "Quantile Methods". In spite of that, the researcher see the most of papers and articles concern univariate case, where the researchers about bivariate case still with limited. In the other hand, the researches extension to multivariate case nonexistent in Iraq - in the scope of researcher’s knowledge - , which gives an extremely importance for the aim of this study, to bring attention for alternative methods or modified methods that can be efficient ones to improve the currently methods. Thus, the most important purpose of the research, is the use of Tow - Stages method, which helps the researchers to compute Nonparametric estimators for the components of Nonparametric models to avoid the curse of dimensionality.It divideds the components to set of points called "Quantiles" , then estimates the quantile function by one of the quantile methods we explained in this research, ( Marginal Integration, Backfitting, and Tow - Stages ). The simulation has been designed for the illustrated models and it has been checked about the estimation methods performance by using the Absolute Deviation Error (ADE) criterion, then compute the Average Absolute Deviation Error (AADE). From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best estimator was Tow - stages estimator in case of high correlation and / or high dimensions. To achieve the purpose of this research, the study has been divided into five chapters. Chapter one, consists of an introduction, the aim of the thesis under research, and a literature survey. Chapter two covers the parametric regression quantile estimation. While Chapter three devoted for Nonparametric estimations methods. Chapter four devoted for Simulation experiments and practical experiment with real data. Finally, Chapter five comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the research has recommended.

مقارنة بعض المقدرات البيزية الحصينة مع مقدرات اخرى لانموذج GARCH(1.1) مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparing of Some Robust Bayesian Estimators With Another Estimators For Garch (1.1) With Practical Application

Author name: جنان عبد الله عنبر
Supervisor name: نزار مصطفى جواد الصراف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعاني بعض السلاسل الزمنية من التقلبات او عدم الثبات في التباين مثل السلاسل المالية والاقتصادية والبيئية وغيرها, وقد يرافق ذلك وجود التلويث او القيم الشاذة في تلك السلاسل والذي يرافق عملية جمع البيانات في اغلب الاحيان ولاسباب عديدة قد يؤثر ذلك بشكل كبير عل | Some of time series suffer from volatility or instability in variation, such as financial , economic , environmental and other time seriesIt was accompanied by the presence of contamination or stray values in those chains that accompanies the data collection process often for many reasons, which greatly affect the estimation models parameters and thus makes the estimated models parameters and thus makes the estimated models are inaccurate and affect the future in the forecasting process this makes the process of estimation the traditional methods is not accurate and not feasible in practice and that is what led many researchers to find alternative methods of estimating for those methods reduce the impact of contamination and the volatility in the process of estimating the time series models,, including autoregressive conditional heteroscadestic models family (ARCH and GARCH). So the goal came thesis complement the work of researchers as thesis aims to find robust Bayesian estimators to the estimate first order generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscadestic model GARCH (1.1) when errors followed normal distribution, and that by proposing three robust Bayesian methods to estimate a method (y ?BM.Bayes) and method (BM.Bayes) and the reduced method (BM.Bayes Shrinkag). As was the use of certain methods of estimation models (GARCH), such as (MLE) traditional method of estimation and the method of (Bayes) and three robust bounded methods a (BM.Huber) and two methods by the proposed (BM.Hample) and (BM.Tukey). The use of simulation in the style of the experimental side for a comparison between the methods adopted in research using polluting ratios (0% 0.1% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20%) and volumes of samples (500, 1000.1500), In addition to the use of different values of the parameters it is found favorable proposed method (BM.Bayes) be when the values of the two parameters (?1, ?) close to each other when any correlation strength is high , Simulations were also on the values of the parameters of the real series that have been estimated in a manner program application (MLE) and some of them were far from any values that weak correlation strength , It turns out that the best method was the proposed (BM.Bayes.Shrinkag). In the practical side it has been stated in the application of the theoretical side of the building stages of the model and testing of those stages on a series of (1254) Show prices daily sales of Basrah, for the period (2 \ 1 \ 2008 - 31 \ 12 \ 2012) through the application of the proposed third method (the reduced method) (BM.Bayes Shrink) which was best when applied to the estimated values of the parameters in a manner (MLE) in the experimental side as it made less (MSE) and estimate the appropriate model GARCH (1,1) proposed the adoption of the reduced way (BM.Bayes.Shrinkag).

استعمال بعض النماذج الاحتمالية المنفردة والمركبة المبتورة لتحديد خصائص التعويضات الصحية في شركة التامين العراقية == Use Some Probability Single & Compound Truncated Models To Determining The Characteristics of Health Payments In The Iraqi Insurance Company

Author name: ثائرة نجم عبد الله الامير
Supervisor name: قيس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نظرا لعدم وجود بحث احصائي سابق لسلوك تعويضات التامين الصحي الذي يمثل النسبة الاكبر من التعويضات في عموم شركات التامين في العراق، تم اختيار هذا البحث وتطبيقه في شركة التامين العراقية.ولغرض تحديد افضل انموذج احتمالي يمثل تعويضات التامين الصحي، تم استعمال | Due to the lack of previous statistical research of the behavior of payments, specifically health insurance, which represents the largest proportion of payments in the general insurance companies in Iraq, this study were selected and applied in the Iraqi insurance company.To determine the best model represent the health insurance payments, we used two probability models determined through the initial detection for the distribution of the research sample by use (Easy Fit) program.One : single, a (Lognormal) for all sample views, and the other compound (Compound Weibull) at dividing research sample into small losses and large losses, and focused on the compound model in some detail in terms of drafting and its importance. With the application of the state of amputation in both the fact that the specific health payments from the top by two million diners in this company.Both models Parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the use of style (Newton - Raphson) to find these estimates. And then compare between models using standard (MSE). Was reached in general that the compound model is better than a single model in the representation of payments.

طرائق تقدير عدد مرات الفشل في الانظمة القابلة للاصلاح

Author name: ثائر فيصل شاهر
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الهدف من هذا البحث تسليط الضوء على احد اهم وابرز المواضيع المعاصرة في دراسات المعولية وهو الانظمة القابلة للاصلاح والذي يعني ان النظام الذي عندما يحدث فيه فشل فيمكن اعادته للعمل باصلاح بعض مركباته دون الحاجة الى ابدالها. والذي يحظى بتطبيقات واسعة وخاص | The main purpose of this research was to study one of the main modern subject which is very important in the reliability studies, it is the repairable system, which means that if the component fails it immediately repaired.These studies have widely applications in many systems like watching machine of cars, airplanes and communication systems, that is failure make huge materiel and humane losses.It is found that these systems submit to Poisson process in particular the nonhomogenous Poisson process, the main contribution in this research is the modification in estimating the number of failures in repairable systems, and the derivation the distribution of n - failures where the distribution is General Gamma.Finally, some new results obtain and a simulation experiments were done to compare the proposed and classical methods.

مقارنة مقدرات بيز الحصين مع مقدرات اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية التقريبية لتوزيع ويبل == A Comparison of Robust Bayesian Estimators With Another Estimators To Estimate The Approximation of Reliability Function For Weibull Distribution

Author name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
Supervisor name: مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: من الملاحظ ان معظم البحوث والدراسات في مجال الاحصاء ولاسيما في حقل المعولية تهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. لاسيما عندما تكون بيانات العينة قيد الدراسة ملوثة. او في حالة عدم التحديد الدقيق للمعلومات المسبقة او في حالة ظهور الحالتين م | It is noticed that most of the researches and studies in the field of statistics particularly in the field of reliability aiming to obtain estimators of very high standard of competency specially when the sample data under study is contaminated, or in the case of not determining accurately the previous information or in case both cases appear together. From here came the objective of the thesis to come to competent estimators of the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution which is considered one of the common failure models. Through studying the ordinary procedures represented in the maximum likelihood method and method of moments and white’s method as well as the ordinary robust methods represented by the method of M - estimate and bayes procedure as well. Therefore bayes procedure was suggested depending on natural conjugate prior function in addition to suggesting three methods according to robust bayes procedure where the first suggested procedure of robust bayes assumed that there is an extent of belief and to a certain percentage with the researcher (the percentage of the researcher falling into mistake in determining the primary information) where the accurate determination of the primary information has already been made which will be integrated with the sample prospects to obtain bayes estimater As to the second suggested procedure of the robust bayes it treated the problem of the sample prospects contamination or the primary information. Whereas the third robust bayes procedure suggestion had treated the problem of appearance of both problems together - that is inaccuracy in determining the primary information and the possibility of contamination to the sample views or the primary views as well, found a comparison between the studied evaluation methods by using the simulation procedure. It has been arrived to the success of the suggested methods in evaluating the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution depending on the two statistical scales (Integral Mean Square Error) (IMSE) and the (Integral Mean Absolute Percentage Error) (IMAPE).

تقدير دالة المعوليـة لتوزيع لوغارتيم الطبيعي مع تطبيق عملي == Estimate of Reliability Function For Lognormal Distribution With Practical Application

Author name: بلسم مصطفى شفيق النائب
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم | فرحان اسماعيل العاني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد كان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد في دراسة موضوع المعولية في السنوات الاخيرة يعود الى التطور التكنولوجـي والتقني السريـع واستخدام الانظمـة الالكترونية المعقـدة في مختلف المجالات. وعليه فان دراسة موضوع المعولية والربط بين الجانبين النظري والتطبيقي امر له | The studies of the subject - matter of Reliability with connecting between theoretical and application sides , it is an important matter now a days because the technology development with using electronic systems.In this study it is used the Lognormal Distribution as a failure models when the failure rate to these models initially increases over time and then decreases approaching Zero with increasing time , and find out the estimators of reliability function by different methods.The estimates are : 1. Maximum Likelihood Estimation.2. Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator.3. Bayes Estimation.And then comparing between the priorities of the estimates through using the Monte - Carlo method and conducting several experiments using Mean Square Error.Generally result show that Maximum Likelihood Estimation to estimate Reliability is better than the other methods , Regarding the practical aspect the data of life time for four machines from EIGC and found after using chi - Square test that the life time for test machines distribute Lognormal and the estimation of Reliability function for machines done using Maximum Likelihood Method

واقع الخصوبة في العراق بالاعتماد على خارطة الفقر ووفيات الامهات لسنة 2013 : دراسة احصائية == The Reality of Fertility In Iraq Based On Poverty And Maternal Mortality Map For 2013 Statistical Study

Author name: بشرى نصيف جاسم
Supervisor name: ابتسام كريم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد الخصوبة احدى المكونات الرئيسة الثلاثة التي تقرر معدل النمو السكاني الى جانب الوفيات والهجرة. ومن ثم فهي تؤثر في مجمل البنية الديمغرافية والاقتصادية والاجتماعية للسكان وفي هجرتهم وتوزيعهم الجغرافي. وتعد الولادة عاملا بايولوجيا اكثر تعقيدا واصعب دراسة | Fertility is one of the three main components that determine the rate of population growth as well as mortality and migration. And thus it affects the overall demographic, economic and social structure of the population and in their migration and geographical distribution. Birth of biological factor is more complex and more difficult study of global deaths and migration due to the complexity and diversity of influences and volatility. fertility is calculated by the number of children born in a given year to the number of women in the age group (15 - 49) for the same year. And that the birth rate is controlled by several decisions about child - bearing or not.It has been estimated that fertility rates of direct and indirect ways by using the method (Brass and the way Cole - Trassel) In addition to identifying the most important factors that affect the total fertility rate by relying on survey data map of poverty and maternal mortality for the year 2013 for the purpose of calculating the total fertility rate for IraqI province (18 Province) direct method as well as the calculation of the independent variables, which is believed to have an impact on total fertility rates that have used one of the statistical packages which is Spss21 using multiple regression Stepwise factors method is a (family size, average per capita income, per capita spending on health, infant mortality rate, the proportion of poverty, the percentage of married - old (15 - 49), the percentage of illiterate women (15 - 49), the percentage of economically active women, the percentage of women in rural areas, the percentage of women with chronic diseases (15 - 49), change the place of residence (internal migration), the average age at marriage, percentage of the population under 15 years, the percentage of homes equipped with national electrolyte, the percentage of women (15 - 49) in addition to the use of the program (Spectrum) to estimate the total fertility and the preparation of the population and the rate of annual population growth and life expectancy of death as well as the median age for the period (2013 - 2050), according to fertility assumptions (high, medium and low level) for the purpose of population policy in the long run as well as the review of the most important demographic theories that are related to fertility and estimate a record number of fertility in Iraqi , and calculating the national fertility index for the year 2013 in Iraq, which amounted (14%) also were awarded a singles record (INP) of fertility on the basis of considering the 1997 base year
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