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التنبؤ بحركة الطرود البريدية الصادرة والواردة باستعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز == Forecasting The Movement of Incoming And Outcoming Postal Parcels Using Box - Jenkins Models
Author name:
عباس دوين عنكوش
Supervisor name:
اسماء غالب جابر الراوي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Applied Statistics
Degree:
Higher Diploma
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3824 - p.pdf
Abstract:
مما لاشك فيه ان للتنبؤ دورا مهما وبارزا في عملية اتخاذ القرارات التي ترسم مسار الادارات والهيئات لما له من نتائج ذات فاعلية لاحتوائه على مجموعة من الطرائق والاساليب الاحصائية ومنها طرائق تحليل السلاسل الزمنية واسلوب بوكس وجينكز احدها والذي يعتمد على ت | There is no doubt that prediction has an important and prominent role in the decision - making process, which charts the course departments and agencies, because of its effective results, which has it contains a set of methods and techniques (statistical and Mathematical), and one of this techniques is (Box - Jenkins) modes Postal parcels are stacked goods, its weight might be bigger than small packages. Postal parcels are specified in kilograms, and it doesn’t weight more than twenty - kilogram, and wrapped securely, its also doesn’t contain personal documents. This research aims to predict the movement of incoming and outcoming postal parcels through the modeling of the data used by using (Box - Jenkins) models, and for the time period from January (2009) to December (2014). This research, made a time - series analysis to the Weights and the numbers of sent and received postal parcels, therefore, the best model have been chosen depending on the appropriate trade - offs used standards, and the test results showed that the best model of the four series is ARIMA (0,1,1), depending on the trade - offs standards (MDL), (SBC), (HQ), and upon these results, the conclusions and recommendations were made
