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استعمال المجموعات الضبابية ونماذج بوكس جينكنز في السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ ببعض نسب التلوث في مياه الشرب لمدينة بغداد == Using The Fuzzy Sets And Box - Jenkins Models In Time Series To Prediction Some Rates of Pollution In Baghdad City
Author name:
سيف عدنان سلمان
Supervisor name:
احلام احمد جمعة
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Statistics
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3768 - p.pdf
Abstract:
There are many statistical methods used in time series analysis and that of the most famous of these methods Box - Jenkins models, which include a number of stages needed to reach the best model is used to predict the process, and that this method requires the availability of a number of conditions required in the process of building the model and assumptions about the nature of the time series being linear, a natural or stationary , and with the growing interest in the topic of time - series modern methods used in time series analysis and foremost of which is the use of Fuzzy logic and Fuzzy sets in the time series as one of the most modern methods to predict is the most important alternatives to traditional statistical methods have emerged they possess the ability to in finding solutions to various areas and it does not require the availability of the conditions due to the use of traditional models which are difficult achieved in most cases. Then in this paper the use of the two methods in the time series, , (Box Jenkins models, and Fuzzy time series) in the forecasting process as each method include special stages are different from the other, through the study of the monthly chemical tests for solids dissolved rate data behavior and examine the turbidity of the water drinking in the city of Baghdad for the period (January 2004) and up (December, 2013) and a better model to predict through the application and the comparison of the results in these ways by using a number of statistical standards and ones (MSE) and (MAPE)
