استعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز للتنبؤ بكمية الانتاج لبعض المنتجات النباتية والحيوانية في محافظة بغداد == Using Box And Jenkins Models To Forecasting The Amount of Production of Some Plant And Animal Products In Baghdad Province
Author name:
رباب علي عبد الرحمن السهيل
Supervisor name:
ايمان محمد عبد الله المشهداني
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Applied Statistics
Degree:
Higher Diploma
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3638 - p.pdf
Abstract:
يعد القطاع الزراعي المتمثل بالانتاج النباتي والحيواني في العراق من القطاعات الرئيسة في الاقتصاد العراقي اذ يساهم في تكوين الناتج القومي الاجمالي، ويعد اهمال القطاع الزراعي من المراحل الاولى لظهور بوادر الازمة الغذائية احد اهم العوامل الكامنة وراء تعميق ال | The agricultural sector of plant and animal production in Iraq is one of the key sectors of the Iraqi economy wich contributes to the formation GNP, the neglect of the agricultural sector from the early stages of the emergence of signs of food crisis. One of the main factors behind the deepening food shortages in addition to the lack of succes of agricultural policies in placet o reduce the dependency of food outside and achieve self - suffciency in the country and that any development strategy to achieve food security in the country must take a development in the agricultural sector. To be able to study the changes that happen in the economic phenomena in the future and determining the values of these changes has tob e set up to rely on time - series analysis and that the time series have some numerical values for a statistical index that reflects the change phenomenon for time, and there are some analysis for the series in time zone from the most important statistical methods that are used to predict the values of random phenomena in the future based on what happend in the past, wich helps in future plan for a peaceful economic development and the most important methods are the time series model developed by the Box - Jenkins methodology for a seasonal subseries plot or a spectral plot. The research aims to predict the amount of domestic production and import of all of the Tomato and Chicken, so using the best model of the Box - Jenkins models.And in the search data to quantity of domestic production and import of each tomato and chicken in Baghdad province - Iraq BI - monthly inputs for time zone between January 2012 until december 2014, at rate of 72, the data was obtained from the directorate of Agriculutral - Baghdad Al Reafa - Statistics department. It’s also has been updated into the gretl program. The study consisted of both the theoretical side of the identification of the theoretical foundations of the Box - Jenkins methodology of the time series and after that the applied to the side of the the best model to predict domestic production to quantity and import of each tomato and chicken, after all that the researcher have a some conclusions and recommendations that benefit the peaceful development and plans for the advancement of the agricultural sector and the most important thing is, that the imported Tomatoes and Chickens is more than the locally produced ones, which indicates that the country depends on the imported Tomatoes and Chickens more than the produced.
