استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ باعداد التلاميذ المقبولين في الصف الاول الابتدائي في العراق للفترة (1969 - 2012) == Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict The Numbers of Pupils Admitted To The First - Grader In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2012)
Author name:
شيماء ابراهيم خليل
Supervisor name:
هاني عبد الله حسن
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Statistics
Degree:
Higher Diploma
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3775 - p.pdf
Abstract:
يعد التنبؤ بالسلوك المستقبلي للسلاسل الزمنية من الموضوعات الهامة في العلوم الاحصائية ولذلك فان التنبؤ بعدد التلاميذ المقبولين في الصف الاول الابتدائي في العراق يحتل مكانة هامة باعتبار الاتاحة الشاملة للتعليم الابتدائي لاطفال العالم تعد واحدة من الاهداف ال | The prediction of future behavior of the time series of important topics in science statistical therefore predict the number of students admitted to the first grade in Iraq occupies an important position as universal access to primary education for the children of the world is one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG'S) and goals of " A World Fit Children's " (WFFC).Data were collected for research, which represents the number of students admitted to the first - grader in Iraq for the period (1969 - 2012) of the Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation - Central Bureau of Statistics has been introduced into the statistical program spss version 18.In this research was the comparison between the two methods to predict which way each of the Box and Jenkins methods Exponential Smoothing to know the best way to predict based on the criteria (MAPE and BIC) where the method has proved its superiority to Exponential Smoothing way box - Jenkins
