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الخصوبة السكانية في العراق تطورها والعوامل المؤثرة عليها واثرها في تحديد حجم السكان مستقبلا == Population Fertility In Iraq, Its Improvement And Effect Factors Upon And Its Influence In Specified Size of Population In Future

Author name: مصطفى حبيب مهدي

Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: The fertility represents most important variables in the population growth and determine the level of this growth and trends in Iraq is the countries with high rates of fertility compared to many countries of the world and the importance of this variable in the population growth and the fact that this variable influenced by demographic, social, economic and growth trends of these families and their development in society. The different methods to fertility measurements (direct and indirect ) in order to arrive actual fertility which matches with fact of Iraq based on data Censuses 1987 and 1997 and then an analysis or factors affecting them, which include as following : average of ages , and mortality and infant children , and the differences urban and rural education contribution of women in the workforce and uses contraceptives , religion wars that affect fertility behavior and reflected on the planning and development using style multiple regression adoption ready program ( SPSS ) , and was also study the effect of fertility in determining the size of population in the future adoption of the 1997 as base which exposes hypotheses which concerning with projections of (fertility, mortality and migration) and the results of these abortions during the period of 2022/1997 using ready program (spectrum) to build a database large dependent population for many purposes, such as planning, development and future population policy.The research divided into five chapters include first submitted and the aim of the research and previous studies and the second the theoretical side and the third (practical aspect) and fourth (population projections) and included Chapter fifth presents conclusions and recommendations that have been reached and the most important recommendations seen by the researcher ,are necessary

استعمال اساليب التنبؤ الاحصائية في تحليل قيم الصادرات النفطية == Using Statistical Forecasting Methods In Analyzing Oil Exports Values

Author name: لينا نضال شوكت

Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: درست الباحثة موضوع اقيام الصادرات النفطية العراقية السنوية وللمدة من 1978م ولغاية 2014م بالاعتماد على ثلاث طرائق تحليل احصائية. الاولى، تحليل انموذج الانحدار الخطي المتعدد والتي تتطلب تحديد متغيرات توضيحية مؤثرة في قيم الصادرات النفطية وكانت هذه المتغيرا | The researcher studied the Iraqi Oil Exports Value form 1978 until 2014 using three statistical analysis methods. The first, Analysis of Multiple Linear Regression which requires determining independent variables that affect the Oil Exports Value and these variables were (barrel price and the average daily number of exported barrels). The second, Analysis of Polynomial Models (Growth Curve Model) and this model requires determining the suitable polynomial degree to represent the model as a curve which shows the increase or decrease that occurs in the data under study. And the third method is, Analysis of Time Series using Box - Jenkins models which requires identification of the suitable model and the degree of the model to represent the data. The three models, their equations and the mathematical relationships have been all defined, especially the ones that have been applied on the data.After analyzing the data using gretl and Matlab softwares and treating some problems that may occur to the data and getting the suitable models to represent the Oil Exports Value, in the Multiple Regression Model the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters have been calculated and testing the efficiency of the model and the estimated parameters using F and t tests. And in the Polynomial model, the curve has been estimated and drawn and calculating the confidence intervals of the parameters and the fitted curve and forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting. In the Time Series model, the stationarity in the mean and variance of the series has been tested then identifying the suitable order for the model which was (2,1,3) and testing the independence of the error then forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting

استعمال السلاسل الزمنية والشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية للتنبؤات المستقبلية لمستوى التضخم في العراق == The Use of Time Series And Neural Network Prediction Futurism Level Swelling In Iraq

Author name: قصي عصام حميد الزبيدي

Supervisor name: قاسم محمد علي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

الاثار الاجتماعية والاقتصادية للفقر في العراق : دراسة مقارنة == The Social And Economic Impacts of Poverty In Iraq A Contrastive Study

Author name: قصي عبد الفتاح رؤوف

Supervisor name: مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعتبر دراسة الفقر وتحليل مؤشراته ومحدداته، من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية.لذلك اختار الباحث هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة في العراق الذي نفذ خلال الس | The present study deals with the most important issue which is of critical significance in Iraq - poverty - and its analysis, indications and determines since it tries to achieve the social and economic growth and development in a realistic way. The researcher selects this subject by depending on the social and economic data survey of the household in Iraq which is carried out in 2007 by the central organization of statistics and its subsequent building poverty line based on these data by using (spss) to arrive at the social and economic variables of direct impact on the poverty level. The indications of poverty in Iraq show that the poverty rate comes to 23% and this rate is centered in the rural increasingly than the urban since the poverty rate comes 39% and 16% respectively these indications also show that the size of poor household comes to 9.5 person and for other households 6.3 persons. The illiteracy ratio comes to (25 - 15) years among the poor - 27.1 %. The ratio of those primary school leavers or school - Not Joiners comes to 25 - 2% while other than poor households comes to 11 - 6% As for intermediate school poor - Joiners, the ratio comes to 79.5 % - the results show that 24% of those poor drink undrinkable water. The unemployment ratio for those adults whose age ranging from 15 and more 15% The Results also show that the Average of individuals, monthly Salary for those poor comes to 87 thousand Iraqi dinar while other's Salaries come to 149 thousand Iraqi dinars. The major differences between the a group of poor people and a group of Non - Poor people on the one hand, and on the other hand the main differences between poor people and non - poor people in cities and country sides for more than 20 variables by (T Test). The researcher comes to the fact that there are nine variable of different meaning - which are as follows : the Average of Household size, the ratio illiteracy, the ratio of non - advantage of health care during the period of pregnancy, the ratio of bachelorhood, the ratio of non - having drinkable water, the Average of individual's monthly salary, the Average of individual's monthly expenditure, the ratio of unemployment, Loans ratio to meet the needs of consuming families. The researcher uses the factor analysis to analyze the relationship among the nine Variables to come to the main factors that affect the level of poverty. The researcher also uses the cluster analysis and transferring the nine Variable data into the standard formula to eliminate the difference of measuring units of these Variables and consequently ensuring the Validity of carrying out the process of classifying the data and determining the relationship among factors in terms of similarity and differences and then going in to the clustering method and analyzation together with the way of comparison by means of Box plot which shows the symmetry of data inside the Variable

التحليل الاحصائي لفقر الاطفال وفقا لبيانات المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة لسنة 2012م == The Statistical Analysis of Child Poverty According To The Socio - Economic Survey of The Family For The Year 2012

Author name: قاسم محمد صاحب

Supervisor name: ضياء عواد كاظم

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعتبر دراسة واقع الطفولة في العراق من القضايا المهمة نظرا لاهمية هذه الفئة في المجتمع , كونهم يعدون البذار الاول للمجتمع ومن خلالهم يحدد المسار الذي يتوجه اليه. تهتم الدراسة في اعطاء صورة واضحة عن واقع فقر الاطفال في العراق , من خلال ما يعانية الاطفال | Study reality of childhood in Iraq , one of the important issues of the importance of this category in the community , as they are consider the first seed to the community and through them determines the path that goes him. The study is interested in giving a clear picture of the of the reality of child poverty in Iraq , through the suffering of the child cases of deprivation of needs and basic services is saturated by appling Bristol indicators of severe deprivation for children in the calculation of depdeprivations suffred by the children and the severe poverty of children , and classification of children in accordance with the integrated sample poverty and socioeconomic survey of the family for the year 2012 scale , amounting to (25488) families wich included (87118) children , wich were obtained from the ministry of planning / central statistical , which included all the governorates. used in statistical data analysis software (stata version 12 , spss version 21) , as well as use of factor analysis as a way in multivariate statistical analysis of the data to find the most important factors affecting the phenomenon of the child poverty The researcher found through this study that (18.8%) of all children suffered from severe child poverty in 2012 , and the governorate of thi - qar top Iraqi governorates in the proportion of child poverty. It was also classified the children of Iraq in accordance with the integrated poverty measure , as shown through which (8.3%) of the total children suffered chronic poverty (they have suffered poverty according to the style of poverty and style UBN line ) , and (14.5%) suffered a newly poverty ( the have suffered poverty according to the style of the poverty line only ) , (10.2%) is the ratio of children who have suffered structural poverty (they suffered poverty according to the style of UBN only), the children who were classified according to the non - poor poverty measurement method was accounted for (66.9%) of the total children. By using factor analysis to find the most important factors affecting the phenomenon of Child poverty, it shows that there are five factors that control the fifteen variables on the level of Iraq and also on the urban level, either in terms of the rurel were six factors, The variable (severe deprivation of education) the greatest impact in the formation of the first factor on the level of Iraq, either at the urban level was variable (monetary poverty for the family) the greatest impact in the formation of the first factor, as was the rurel to the variable (severe deprivation of information) has the greatest impactin The first factor formation

تاثير الاوضاع السياسية على الطفولة في العراق خلال الفترة 2006 - 2010 == The Impact of Political Status On The Childhood In Iraq During 2006 - 2010

Author name: فائز حامد سلمان السعدون الزيدي

Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تحاول الدراسة الحالية بحث وضع الطفولة في العراق واثر الاوضاع السياسية عليه.فلقد تم دراسة وضع الطفل تحت سن الخامسة باعتبارها الفئة العمرية الاساسية للطفل لفهم واقع الطفولة في العراق ولبناء توجيهات علمية تسلط الضوء على المشاكل العديدة التي تواجه الاطفال بغي | This study attempts to study the status of the childhood in Iraq and the impact of the political situations on it.It tries to study the status of the children under the age of five years for it is the essential age of the child to understand the reality of the childhood in Iraq and to build the scientific guidelines that highlight many problems facing the children in order to have the documented procedure to improve their living conditions. The present study focuses on four fundamental axes.The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has calculated the indicators of these four axes relying on real data of a sample whose size is (18144) families obtained from the Ministry of planning and Development Cooperation/Central Bureau of statistics and Information Technology Data.The Data has been analyzed by the statistical program (SPSS VERSION 12.0) using two methods of statistical tools the field of analyzing data of multilateral variables (Multilateral Analysis) namely, cluster analysis and factor analysis.In the light of the results of the data analysis some conclusions are worth observing : 1. The conclusions showed that 840 of the Iraqi children whose age is under five years suffer from the medium or server weight, and that fifth of the children undergo from being pygmy (their length does not suit their age).2. The conclusions also showed that the majority of death cases of the children under five years 85% occur in infants only.3. 3% of the age (36 - 59 months) joins the education like nursing or kindergarten.4. There are differences among provinces in Iraq with regards to the proportion of orphans among children. The higher average is found in AL - Muthana province 9%, in kerbala 9% and in Diyala 8%. This proportion is a result of the unstable circumstances in these provinces which has been shown by the cluster analysis of this indicator.5. The results of the factor analysis showed that the variables (health effects) have a great effect (impact) on forming the first factor on Iraq in general and on the countryside environments, whereas the nutrition variable have a great impact on forming the first factor on urban environment.

التنبــؤ بالارقام القياسية لاسعار المستهلك في العراق == Forecasting The Consumer Price Index Number In Iraq

Author name: غادة مصطفى عطا

Supervisor name: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعد الرقم القياسي لاسعار المستهلك واحدا من اكثر الادوات الاحصائية استعمالا لقياس التضخم في اقتصاد اي بلد، والهدف الرئيسي من احتساب هذا الرقم القياسي هو رصد التغيرات التي تطرا على اسعار السلع والخدمات وذلك لتقدير التغير في القوة الشرائية لوحدة النقود وم | The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely used statistical tools to measure inflation in a country’s economy, the main objective of calculating this index is to monitor changes in the prices of goods and services in order to estimate the change in the purchasing power of money and the subsequent amendment to the wages and the prices on some services to ensure the stability of their purchasing power.Iraq's economy has been suffering for a long time of continuous increase in most of goods and services prices in the local market due to internal and external many factors which led to the deterioration in economic development and have negative impact on economic and social life of consumers specially those who have fixed and limited income، therefore Knowledge of the movement and trends in prices of goods and services in the future will help the planners and decision - makers to put financial and productivity suitable policy to achieve stability in domestic prices.Whereas this research aims to forecasting of the consumer price index numbers in Iraq starting from (January 2015 - December 2016) and for the twelfth commodity groups according to “Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) " throughout using way of time series analysis based upon monthly data for the period (2009 - 2014) that are taken from Central Bureau of Statistical Organization considering year 2007 as the base year because this year is economically stable.Data has been analyzed by using time series cross by Box - Jenkins methodology (Identification, parameters estimation, diagnostic checking model, forecasting) reliance on statistical program ( Gretl - 1.1), the results of analysis showed that after comparison between Box - Jenkins models per each series based on Akaike Information Criterion(AIC), Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC), The best forecasting model of consumer prices index numbers for commodity groups twelve are as follows :

تحليل واقع استخدام تكنولوجيا المعلومات في العراق (عدا اقليم كردستان) للعام 2008 == Analysis of The Reality of The Use of Information Technology In Iraq (Except For The Kurdistan Region) In 2008

Author name: علياء اسماعيل عبيد

Supervisor name: عبد المنعم كاظم حمادي الشكري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد تكنولوجيا المعلومات من الجوانب المهمة في قياس تطور الدول في جانب التنمية البشرية.لذلك تم اختيار هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات مسح تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات الذي نفذ خلال عام 2008 من قبل الجهاز المركزي للاحصاء وتكنولوجيا المعلومات واعتماد بيانات | Information technology is an important aspect in measuring the development of states in the human development.Therefore this research were selected supporting by data and survey formation and communication technology which was implemented in2008 by the Central Bureau of Statistics and Information Technology and e adoption of this survey data by using of statistical programs bag ad}` (SPSS 19)To get to the variables of direct impact on information technology and communications to all governorates of (except Kurdistan region) using factor analysis and then ease cluster analysis to determine the extent f convergence among the provinces on this side... In first chapter of the research presented introduction human development and then the goal of research and a brief history of research and thesis of master and doctorate which dealt with one aspects of human development and then some important information about the survey information and communication technology.The second chapter is the theoretical aspect of the research has included four axes, the first axis referred to the measures of human development (education, health, income, a measure development related to gender , human poverty, the enabling of women) and how to calculate each scale...The second axis was included along with information technology and its importance in policy development, education and some applications of information technology, its importance in policy development and education, some technology information, at

استعمال انموذج الانحدار اللوجستي لدراسة ظاهرة البطالة عند الشباب في محافظة بغداد == Using The Logistic Regression For Study of The Phenomenon of Unemployment Among Young People In Baghdad Province - Study Analytic Statistical

Author name: علي يحيى عبد الرضا

Supervisor name: رباب عبد الرضا صالح البكري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد مشكلة البطاله من اخطرالمشكلات التي يواجهها مجتمعنا في الوقت الحاضر لكونها تشكل هدرا لعنصر العامل البشري ولاسيما فئه الشباب القادرة على العمل والعطاء ممايترتب على ذلك اثار سلبية تنبىء بمخاطر اقتصادية واجتماعية,فقد اصبحت ظاهرة البطالة قضية عامه يعاني م | The problem of unemployment of the most serious problems faced by our society at the present time because it constitutes a waste component of the human factor, especially young people capable of work and tender Mmaatertb on that negative effects lay hidden economic and social risks, the unemployment phenomenon has become a cause of public suffering from a lot of members of the community and especially the youth in various scientific levels, age and sex, which led to the high dependency burden in the community, which is reflected on the fabric of social life.The research aims to highlight the most important issue facing the community in time Alhazer a phenomenon of unemployment among young people as research aims to conduct a statistical study of the phenomenon of youth unemployment in the province of Baghdad and to consider the causes or identify the factors that affect them by building a model of logistic regression and find Category cases of the unemployed.The research sample included socio - economic survey of the family to the province of Baghdad and the results of a youth age group (15 - 29 years), according to the Ministry of Planning indicators - Central Bureau of Statistics.Has been used researcher statistical programs ready - made bag (SPSS20) in data and extracting results analysis, it has been the use of multivariate statistical analysis (model logistic regression binary response) to analyze the relationship between variables and access to the variables that actually affect the phenomenon of unemployment among young people in the province of Baghdad.As the researcher through the practical side to the results the following conclusions : - The moral variables included in the model are (sex, Higher Certificate completed by your father does not have a type, the type of environment and age) using the Wald test and the rest of the independent variables is a moral as well as showing that the percentage of correct classification for the views adopted variable after the entry of the independent variables (illustrations) of the model rose about the percentage of correct classification for the views of the model adopted containing the hard limit just as variable ratio increased from (82.5) to the percentag (88.3).

مستوى تعليم المراة في العراق وتاثيره في امراض الاطفال == The Level of Women'S Education In Iraq And Its Effect On Children'S Diseases

Author name: علي صبيح فرحان الطائي

Supervisor name: اسماء نجم عبد الله

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان الظاهرة الطبيعية لتعليم الام نجدها تسلك سلوكا غير خطي، ولتحليل تلك الظاهرة نستعمل النماذج اللاخطية لوصفها وتحليلها وانموذج الانحدار اللوجستي يعد واحد من اهم هذه النماذج الاحصائية التي تستعمل لوصف وتحليل تلك الظاهرة وتطبق هذه النماذج عندما تكون المتغي | The natural phenomenon for the education of the mother is found behave in a non - linear, and to analyze this phenomenon, we use non - linear models to describe, analyze and model logistic regression is one of the most important of these statistical models used to describe and analyze this phenomenon and apply these models when they are dependent variables (response) and descriptive and specific variables (Qualitative and limited dependent variables) that is, those that are expressed in a specific set of qualities or facts characteristic((The education of the parents, particularly the mother contributes to the development of public health, especially for children under the age of five and is working to raise the educational level of parents to improve the health and living level and contribute to the dissemination of health education that are part of the general cultureThe research sample included socio - economic survey of households in Iraq results (IHSES - 2012) and carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics and the body count of the Kurdistan region and for the age group of five years or less.The research aims to use binary logistic regression method to determine the effect of mother's education on children's exposure to disease in Iraq as a whole, according to the environment (urban, rural) and by region (Baghdad, North, South and Central(Depending on the test (Hosmer and Lemeshow Test) show that the chosen model approved variable (Y exposure to the disease) for the whole of Iraq, as well as by region (Baghdad, North, Central and South) and the environment (urban, rural) significantly, meaning that there the effect of mother's education on disease susceptibility especially levels of education (mom, read only) it has been shown that the level of education (my mother (x1 (1) contribute to the increased susceptibility to disease has been ranked first in influencing the approved variable (Y) at the level of (Iraq as a whole and the environment (urban), the northern region ), while (read only x1 (2)) contributes to reduce exposure to the disease has been ranked first in influencing the approved variable (Y) at the level of (the environment (the countryside), Baghdad, Central) area, either at the level of the southern region, the (mom x1 (1)) contributes to reduce exposure to the disease has been ranked first in influencing the approved variable (Y).

توقعات الطلب المستقبلي للسياحة الدينية فـي محافظتي النجف الاشرف وكربلاء المقدسة == Expectations of Future Demand For Religious Tourism In The Provinces of Najaf And Karbla

Author name: علي حمد الله احمد

Supervisor name: محمد جاسم محمد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

دراسة احصائية عن العوامل المؤثرة على التضخم في العراق == A Statistical Study On The Factors Affecting Inflation In Iraq

Author name: عطا كريم محمود العامري

Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان هذا البحث يهدف الى اظهار اهم العوامل والمتغيرات المؤثرة على التضخم في العراق من خلال دراسة عدد من المتغيرات وتحليلها احصائيا باستعمال اسلوبين من التحليل حيث تم استعمال اسلوب التحليل العاملي من خلال استعمال (15) متغير اذ يعتبر هذا الاسلوب من اساليب الت | This research aims to show the most important factors and variables affecting inflation in Iraq through the study of a number of variables and analyzed statistically using the two methods of analysis where the use of the style factor analysis through the use of (15) variable, as is the technique of analysis methods of modern, in addition to using multiple regression approach for the purpose of formulating a model statistically appropriate to predict inflation rates and determine the most important variables affecting it. As it ensures Find four seasons, has included the first chapter the research methodology and previous studies, while the second chapter included the theoretical side of research and was Bembgesan, Section I T_khassalganb theoretical your style factor analysis and its importance and methods of factor analysis with a focus on how the major components, while the second section has included the theoretical regression to the style of its details. It included the third quarter the practical side was Bembgesan, specialty section first application of the style factor analysis and analysis of the structure of the links, either second section has included the use of style gradient to reach the best model regression expresses the relationship between the most important variables illustrations (Independent) and variable adopted, which represents inflation, in addition to the possibility of the use of the model in futureforecasts. .The fourth quarter has included the most important conclusions that have been reached, as well as ensure that the recommendations. Has been the most important conclusions that the average daily exports of crude oil is the most influential on the rates of inflation and this is what led to be one of the important recommendations in the research is to increase exports of crude oil at the present time for the purpose of reducing inflation as the inverse relationship between inflation and average daily crude oil exports, in addition to that it was important recommendations is the diversity of sources of revenue without relying on crude oil imports note that it requires a long period of time.

استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بمحصول الرز في بعض مناطق الوسط والجنوب في العراق == Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict Rice Production In Some Middle And South Areas In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2014

Author name: عدويه حسن يوسف الطائي

Supervisor name: غفران اسماعيل كمال

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

استعمال بعض الاساليب الاحصائية للتنبؤ بانتاج محصول الشلب في العراق للمدة (2025 - 2016) == Some Use Statistical Methods To Predict The Yield of Rice Production In Iraq (2016 - 2025)

Author name: عبير محمود جاسم

Supervisor name: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعد القطاع الزراعي من القطاعات المهمة في عملية البناء الاقتصادي والاجتماعي في بلدان العالم المختلفة وان على الزراعة ان تسد حاجة السكان من الغذاء حتى يتحقق الامن الغذائي.ويعد محصول الشلب من المحاصيل الصيفية المهمة التي تزرع في المناطق المروية من وسط وجنوب | The agricultural sector of the important sectors in the process of economic and social reconstruction in the different countries of the world and on agriculture to meet the needs of the population of food so food security is achieved. The rice crop of the important summer crops grown in irrigated areas of central and southern Iraq, one of the important crops in food intake in Iraq depends upon the Iraqi individual in the food and meals. This research aims to predict the production of rice crop in Iraq for the period (from 2016 to 2025) through the time - series models using the Box and Jenkins models, which requires diagnosing the appropriate model and appropriate grade for this model to represent the phenomenon studied and based on annual data for the period analyzed (from 1975 to 2015), which was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. After analyzing the data using statistical software gretl and address some of the problems that could have exposed the data and obtain the appropriate models to represent the production of rice, and in the model of the time series were tested stability of the chain in terms of both the contrast and the Mediterranean have shown results of the analysis after the trade - offs between Box and Jenkins models for series production of rice the adoption of standard Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the standard Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) and standard Hannan - Quinn (H - Q) to be after that model representative for the production of rice crop in Iraq is ARIMA (2,1,2) and test the independence of the wrong paradigm and then predict for the years (2016 - 2025).

استعمال التحليل العنقودي لبيان تغير نمط الانفاق في العراق للسنوات (1971 - 2010)

Author name: عبير عباس ناصر

Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

التنبؤ بحركة الطرود البريدية الصادرة والواردة باستعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز == Forecasting The Movement of Incoming And Outcoming Postal Parcels Using Box - Jenkins Models

Author name: عباس دوين عنكوش

Supervisor name: اسماء غالب جابر الراوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

التنبؤ باعداد طلبة المدارس في محافظة بغداد لغاية 2024 == Forecasting Numbers of School Students In Baghdad Province Up To 2024

Author name: صهيب اسماعيل عبد اللطيف

Supervisor name: اسماء نجم عبد الله

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: جميعنا يعلم ان التعليم يبدا من خلال مراحل متعددة والتي تشكل سلسلة زمنية يمكن الاستفادة منها والتنبؤ بها من اجل تحسين وتطوير هذا القطاع المهم, مما لاشك فيه ان للتنبؤ دورا مهما وبارزا في عملية اتخاذ القرارات التي ترسم مسار الادارات والهيئات لما له من نتا | We all know that education starts through multiple stages, which constitute a time series that can be tapped and predictable in order to improve and develop this important sector.There is no doubt that to predict an important and prominent role in the decision - making process that paint departments and agencies track because of its ineffective results, because it contains a range of methods and statistical methods, including the methods, time series analysis and style Box and Jenkins, one of them, which depends on the time series of the phenomenon being studied analysis to provide the so - called autoregressive moving averages models characterized that methodology that can predict the data that appear in the future, based on time series data of interest in the past.The research aims to predict the numbers of school students, and educational supplies to the province of Baghdad, using the best model among the Box _ Jenkins models.The most research data numbers, primary and secondary school students in the province of Baghdad and for the period from 1969 until 2014, equivalent to (45) Show, which build a better model was to predict the numbers of students for both phases (primary, secondary), where the researcher found a better specimen prediction for primary school students was the specimen is ARIMA (1,1,3) the best specimen for secondary students is ARIMA (1,1,0) and through a table predictive values for each of the primary and secondary enables the researcher to assess the educational supplies by developments in the preparation of students increase according to the regulations and instructions of the Ministry of Education.Search was divided into four chapters shows the first chapter introduction research and objective of the research and review Reference The second chapter took the theoretical aspect of identifying the theoretical bases of Box_cengnz models in time - series analysis of either the third quarter included the practical side.Was estimated (the number of people to primary and secondary education, the number of primary and secondary schools, the number of teachers, number of teachers, the number of supervisors, the number of supervisors specialists, the number of school trips, the number of books for primary and secondary).The fourth chapter and the latter is for the conclusions and recommendations reached by the researcher that benefit the sound development of plans for the advancement of the educational sector

تاثير تغير اسعار النفط على موازنة العراق العامة للفترة (2003 - 2014) == The Effect of Changes of Oil Prices By The General Budget For Iraq On Duration (2003 - 2014)

Author name: شيماء محمد احمد

Supervisor name: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ باعداد التلاميذ المقبولين في الصف الاول الابتدائي في العراق للفترة (1969 - 2012) == Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict The Numbers of Pupils Admitted To The First - Grader In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2012)

Author name: شيماء ابراهيم خليل

Supervisor name: هاني عبد الله حسن

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

دراسة تحليلية للعوامل البيئية المؤثرة على انتاج التمور في محافظة البصرة == An Analytical Study On The Effect of Environmental Elements On Dates Production In Basrah

Author name: سامر عادل عبد الله

Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: اصبح المناخ اليوم من الموضوعات الرئيسية المهمة التي تحتل مرتبة الصدارة لدى جميع دول العالم المتقدمة والنامية، لاسيما بعد ان تبين بوضوح مدى التغيرات التي شهدها في العقود الاخيرة. والتي تحدث اما لاسباب طبيعية نتيجة اختلال في توازن النظام البيئي او لاسباب بش | Climate has become a key topic that occupies the forefront of all developed and developing countries around the world, especially after the climate change witnessed in recent decades, These changes occur due to either natural causes as a result of an imbalance in the ecosystem, or human causes such as human economic activities, these changes affected many aspects of life, one of which is the agriculture, including palm cultivation and dates productionThe aim of this research was to study the effect or the relationship between climate and dates production, which is considered one of the most important crops that can be relied upon economically. This research uses the method of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis to find out the climatic elements effecting the productivity of two types of dates (Helawi and Zehdi). The independent variables (climatic side) were the average of the yearly rates for (Maximum temperatures, Sunshine duration, Relative humidity, Wind speed and Suspended dust) in Basra city for the period (2005 - 2014), and the dependent variable was the average of the palm tree productivity measured in (kg), which represents the (agricultural side). The results showed that there are three factors (variables) affecting dates production of (Helawi), which are (sunshine duration, suspended dust and wind speed) because they were statistically significant. As for the (Zehdi), there were two statistically significant variables, which are (Sunshine and Maximum temperatures). The conclusions and recommendations were founded by using the Stepwise regression in statistical package (SPSS v19)

استخدام التحليل الاحصائي في دراسة واقع البنى التحتية للاسرة العراقية لعام 2013 == The Use of Statistical Analysis In The Study of The Reality of The Infrastructure of The Iraqi Was Captured In 2013

Author name: زهراء علي هاشم

Supervisor name: ابتسام كريم عبد الله

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد دراسة واقع البنى التحتية وتحليل مؤشراته ومحدداته من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية. لذلك اختير هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات مسح خارطة الفقر ووفيات الامهات في العراق الذي نفذ خلال ال | The study of the reality of infrastructure and the analysis of indicators and determinants are important issues for Iraq, which aims to achieve economic and social development more realistically. Therefore, this research was selected using the data of the survey of the poverty map and maternal mortality in Iraq carried out during the year 2013 by the Central Statistical Organization and using the SPSS to reach the variables that have a direct impact on the level of the infrastructure of the Iraqi family. The analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the twelve variables to reach the factors that actually affect the level of infrastructure, which included housing, electricity, water, sewage system, basic services. The cluster analysis method was adopted and the data of the twelve variables were converted to the standard formula. To eliminate the difference of units of measurement of these variables and thus ensure the validity of the implementation of the stage related to the process of data classification and determine the extent of the relationship between the Iraqi provinces in terms of similarity or difference and in the last stage to enter the methods of analysis and analysis. Two main methods of analysis were used : the main vehicle method and the main axis method. It was obtained through the results of the main vehicles method that there were two factors (the value of the underlying root is greater or equal to the correct one) namely housing, electricity, water and basic services factor with an explanatory capacity of 85.469 (847.82%) of the total variance, and the remaining 17.153% of the total variance, and the remaining 14.531% Due to other factors. Thus, the cluster analysis used two methods of hierarchical analysis, ie, the single link and the total linkage. The results were close to some minor differences among them. Most of the aggregates' tables were close to a small difference in transactions. This difference depends on the methodology of each method.

تحليل احصائي مقارن لواقع الصناعات الغذائية في العراق لسنة 2007 == Comparative Statistical Analysis of The Reality of The Food Industry In Iraq For The Year 2007

Author name: رعد عبد الرزاق علي

Supervisor name: سعد احمد عبد الرحمن النعیمي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

تحليل الاهداف الانمائية للالفية في العراق == Study The Statistical Analysis of The Millennium Development Goals In Iraq

Author name: رسول هادي عبد المنعم

Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: The goal of the Millennium Development Goals is to promote development by improving social and economic conditions in the poorest countries in Amah at The United Nations Declaration on the Millennium adopted by all Member States in September - September - 2000 of the most important decisions of the General Assembly taken at the end of the last century, as is in a number of commitments aimed at improving the lot of man at the beginning of the third millennium, to conclude that these goals a commitment to development and security, peace and gender equality and the elimination of the multiple dimensions of poverty and achieve sustainable development. It should be noted that most of the goals set by the announcement of the Millennium is not new but derived from the recommendations of global conferences held in the nineties and which was adopted rules and international laws over the past Considered as indicators of the Millennium Development multifaceted, as it contributes in the monitoring of economic and social changes, in addition to the preparation of development plans to improve the status of activities that suffer from a lack of performance at the state level, either at the level of the world are through the provision of indicators for international comparisons, which helps in making decisions on economic, trade and deal with external debt... Etc., and come to the donor countries to take decisions on aspects of assistance, especially emergency assistance and direct form of assistance with time and according to the monitoring of changes in society. And that the goals are the results rather than inputs, where that eating the Millennium Development Goals focuses mostly on the eight goals and objectives of digital and the time frame for achieving them to be a reference to evaluate and monitor the development goals in countries Almokhtlfahomen this sense Akhtaralbages this research and using the system of statistical programs ready SPSS to get to the adoption of analytical methodology using my style factor analysis and cluster analysis in the analysis of these indicators at the level of the provinces where the state acquires Find in the Millennium Development Goals in Iraq is particularly important because of the national decline in the indicators of social and economic development and seek to adopt policies that are in achieving those goals.The research includes five chapters include the first chapter Mekdmaaama and the idea of the Millennium Development Goals, data sources and target research and methodology, and backgrounds of study submitted for analysis of global and cluster analysis and research topic also included Chapter II Showing the Millennium Development Goals, targets and indicators with a brief description on the indicators that have been taken under consideration and an outline of the efforts made in the Arab region in achieving the Millennium Development Goals and the statement of its progress and achievements and its attention to these goals, the third chapter has included explaining factor analysis and cluster analysis used in the statistical analysis included the fourth quarter the interpretation of the results obtained through the study (Urban and Rural Areas), and attended, and Rural Areas [The fifth chapter has included the conclusions and recommendations

استعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز للتنبؤ بكمية الانتاج لبعض المنتجات النباتية والحيوانية في محافظة بغداد == Using Box And Jenkins Models To Forecasting The Amount of Production of Some Plant And Animal Products In Baghdad Province

Author name: رباب علي عبد الرحمن السهيل

Supervisor name: ايمان محمد عبد الله المشهداني

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعد القطاع الزراعي المتمثل بالانتاج النباتي والحيواني في العراق من القطاعات الرئيسة في الاقتصاد العراقي اذ يساهم في تكوين الناتج القومي الاجمالي، ويعد اهمال القطاع الزراعي من المراحل الاولى لظهور بوادر الازمة الغذائية احد اهم العوامل الكامنة وراء تعميق ال | The agricultural sector of plant and animal production in Iraq is one of the key sectors of the Iraqi economy wich contributes to the formation GNP, the neglect of the agricultural sector from the early stages of the emergence of signs of food crisis. One of the main factors behind the deepening food shortages in addition to the lack of succes of agricultural policies in placet o reduce the dependency of food outside and achieve self - suffciency in the country and that any development strategy to achieve food security in the country must take a development in the agricultural sector. To be able to study the changes that happen in the economic phenomena in the future and determining the values of these changes has tob e set up to rely on time - series analysis and that the time series have some numerical values for a statistical index that reflects the change phenomenon for time, and there are some analysis for the series in time zone from the most important statistical methods that are used to predict the values of random phenomena in the future based on what happend in the past, wich helps in future plan for a peaceful economic development and the most important methods are the time series model developed by the Box - Jenkins methodology for a seasonal subseries plot or a spectral plot. The research aims to predict the amount of domestic production and import of all of the Tomato and Chicken, so using the best model of the Box - Jenkins models.And in the search data to quantity of domestic production and import of each tomato and chicken in Baghdad province - Iraq BI - monthly inputs for time zone between January 2012 until december 2014, at rate of 72, the data was obtained from the directorate of Agriculutral - Baghdad Al Reafa - Statistics department. It’s also has been updated into the gretl program. The study consisted of both the theoretical side of the identification of the theoretical foundations of the Box - Jenkins methodology of the time series and after that the applied to the side of the the best model to predict domestic production to quantity and import of each tomato and chicken, after all that the researcher have a some conclusions and recommendations that benefit the peaceful development and plans for the advancement of the agricultural sector and the most important thing is, that the imported Tomatoes and Chickens is more than the locally produced ones, which indicates that the country depends on the imported Tomatoes and Chickens more than the produced.

اثر عوامل الجذب والطرد لسكان المحافظات في العراق للفترة (1997م - 2011م) (عدا اقليم كوردستان) : دراسة احصائية == The Effect of Attraction And Expulsion Factors of Population In The Provinces of Iraq For Period (م 1997 - م2011) (Except Kurdistan) - Statistical Study

Author name: دري حميد جاسم السلامي

Supervisor name: سعد احمد عبد الرحمن النعیمي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد نظرية عوامل الجذب والطرد من اكثر النظريات شيوعا في تحليل الاسباب التي تدفع بالافراد الى الهجرة، وتقوم النظرية ببساطة على ان الناس تهاجر لان هناك عوامل طاردة لهم من موطنهم الاصلي، او ان هناك عوامل جاذبة لهم في المنطقة المضيفة.لهذا السبب اهتم هذا الب | The theory of attractions and expulsion are the most common theories in the analysis of the causes that drive individuals to immigration, the theory is simply that people migrate because there are factors expelling them from their place of origin, or there are factors attractive to them in the host region.For this reason interested in this research study this phenomenon aided statistical analysis (using multiple linear regression method), to determine the factors of attraction and expulsion and to identify the size of the migration of the population in the provinces of Iraq (Excluding the Kurdistan region), the currents and trends and any areas more attractive to residents, which is more parcels of the population, as well as knowledge of migrations and coming out of each of the five governorates century on the level of Iraq, according to the results of the general census of the population in 1997, And projections up to 2008, data and the results of the inventory and punctuation for the year 2009 and projections up to the year 2011, and the data that has been obtained from the concerned ministries official (Health, education, agriculture, electricity), study of the impact of health factors, And education, agriculture and services (electricity and water) on this migration.The researcher found that there are some factors have an impact in some provinces attractant as the number of schools in the province of Nineveh, unlike others with influence reverse as the number of faculty members in Basra province, and