توقعات الطلب المستقبلي للسياحة الدينية فـي محافظتي النجف الاشرف وكربلاء المقدسة == Expectations of Future Demand For Religious Tourism In The Provinces of Najaf And Karbla
Author name:
علي حمد الله احمد
Supervisor name:
محمد جاسم محمد
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Applied Statistics
Degree:
Higher Diploma
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3874 - p.pdf
Abstract:
من الواضح ان من اهم عمليات تطور الدول هي عملية التخطيط ووضع الخطط المستقبلية وهذا يتطلب اعتماد الاساليب الاحصائية المتقدمة , ومن اهم هذه الاساليب هي طرائق تحليل السلاسل الزمنية والتي تاخذ بالحسبان التغيرات الزمنية في دراسة الظواهر وعليه تم استعمال الانوا | It's acknowledged that planning and setting of foreseen & detailed plans are from the important operations to countries development which requires advanced statistical methods adoption. One of the important methods are the way of time series analysis which depends on time changes in studying phenomena. According to that different types of time series patterns & it`s analysis undertaken , recognizing the most important specifications in build up suitable patterns for studied phenomenon where basic phases adopted in building up patterns related to time series and beginning with identification ,setting of suitable pattern & studied phenomenon forecasting. The true data used for four types of Variables of a number of hotels, number of rooms, number of guests the Iraqis, the number of guests for each of the Iraqi province of Najaf and Karbala province respectively and take the data to time series form 1981 - 2010، was diagnosed using a model AR (1) in the prediction for the years 2011 - 2015
