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استعمال بعض الطرائق اللامعلمية في تقدير نموذج الانحدار الذاتي اللاخطي بوجود متغير خارجي مع تطبيق عملي == Using Some Nonparametric Methods For Estimation of Nonlinear Autoregressive Model With Exogenous Variables With Application

Author name: علي سلمان حبیب
Supervisor name: فراس احمد محمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The analysis of the nonlinear time series, namely the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Variable (NARX) model, is considered one of the complex problems.Correct order determination is very important to identify the model. Two different methods are proposed to determine the order for (NARX) model. The researcher also uses three different nonparametric methods to estimate nonlinear regression function of the model.The first proposed method to determine the order for (NARX) model was the Additive Splines Estimation to determine the correct order of the model. This method is based on Additive Property to treat the augmented ( Curse Dimensionality ) problem.The second proposed method was Cross - Validation approach leave one out, based on the kernel estimate of regression function which is directly based on data. Three different methods are used for model estimation. The first method is Smoothing Splines. The second is Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) ,and the third is the BRUTO algorithm which is an adaptive backfitting and uses Generalized Cross - Validation.For comparison purposes between the various estimation nonparametric methods and to find out the best fitting for the data, two Criterion are used : Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Proportional Error (MAPE), and select the best method which gives the best fitting of the data ; then applying the best method on the Electrical Loads and Temperature in Basra Governorate for the months (from May to October) in 2015. The researcher concluded that Additive Splines method play an effective role in order determination for the used model and the results show that the identified order is close to the correct order; and that the ANN is the best estimation for (NARX) model

مقارنة مقدرات بيز لدالة المعولية لانموذج ويبل للفشل باستعمال دوال خسارة مختلفة مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Bayes Estimators For Reliability Function of Weibull Failure Model By Using Different Loss Functions With Practical Application

Author name: صبا صباح احمد الجميلي
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Weibull failure model considered being one of the well known failure models because of its different applications in addition to its importance in the reliability field and life tests.This thesis focused on a comparison of standard Bayes estimators for reliability function of the two parameters Weibull distribution by usingsix different loss functions, three of them have been suggested by the researcher.And for that, the methodology of this thesis depended on the following methodologies : - First : - Theoretical study, the standard Bayesian estimations has been derivatives elaborately to reach the Bayes estimators forms for the reliability function of Weibull distribution by using symmetric and asymmetric loss functions which been explained elaborately, and these are quadratic loss function, logarithm loss function and precautionary loss function to reach to the standard Bayes estimators which called quadratic Bayes estimator (QB), logarithmic Bayes estimator (LB) and precautionary Bayes estimator (PB)) respectively. And those loss functions have been Modified by suggested three modified loss functions counterpart to the functions above to reach proposed estimators which called (modified quadratic Bayes estimator (MQB), modified logarithmic Bayes estimator (MLB) and modified precautionary Bayes estimator (MPB)) respectively.Second : - Experimental study by designing number of simulation experiments using various values of parameters and sample sizes, and with repetition of (10000) times for the comparison among the estimators and by using the mean square error (MSE) to reach efficient estimators with minimum variance. And a collection of real negative and positive values have been tried for the constant which is used in proposed loss functions to reach the best value may used in the comparison, and then a comparison between the six preference estimators is done to show which estimator is the most accurate to be used for estimation the reliability function of Weibull failure model, and best results have been obtained from those simulation experiments.The results of these experiments showed that the modified precautionary Bayes estimator (MPB) is the best for the reliability function of Weibull failure model than the other estimators which have been used in this thesis, and the second best method is the modified logarithmic Bayes estimator (MLB), and after that the precautionary Bayes estimator (PB) and then the modified quadratic Bayes estimator (MQB), also all proposed estimators are better than the logarithmic Bayesestimator (LB) and the quadratic Bayes estimator (QB) which results not to be shown in preferences.Also the results of these experiments show that every proposed estimator is better than its known counterpart.Third : - Application study by taking the best Bayesian estimator in the simulation experiments which is the proposed modified precautionary Bayes estimator (MPB) and applied practically on two experimental real data from WeatherFord company for oil well digging in the Bazergan area of Misan governorate which are represented by the time to failure of the operation of the drilling fluid pumps.From all above, the most important conclusions and recommendations have been offered from the results of this thesis as a specific contribution in the reliability field.

تحليل مؤشرات الفقر في العراق على ضوء المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة 2007 == Analysis of Poverty Indicators In Iraq Relevant To Economic & Social Survey of Household (2007)

Author name: زهرة عباس حسن الدليمي
Supervisor name: خلود يوسف خمو
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: There is Poverty because of the difference in capacity and material resources, Previously Poverty Known on the basis of disparity between incomes and inadequate income.We now in the Twenty - first century and Poverty still the most important problems and challenges the tops of the list problems that plague the world, because it affects the political and social stability and economic of the countries.To provide database of the poor it have been prepared document describes the features of poverty and the where a bout of the poor cooperation between provinces.Here the goal of the research is to identify the factors affecting the incidences of poverty in Iraq and because the poverty does not decent on factor but several factors in the amount of importance, we found that factor analysis is the appropriate technique and to support the results of factors analysis we use Cluster analysis an data of economic and social survey of families in Iraq an 2007, it camped out in Iraq in cooperation with world bank.In order to reach goals according to the comprehensive survey of the poor's policies have been proposed for various aspects of poverty, such as, education, health, spending - income, social security, work, housing and others. The first chapter include introduction and aim of research and some scientific terms for poverty, the second chapter with theoretical side and the third included the application an poverty data and finally the fourth chapter included the conclusions reached and recommendations that cane out of research.

تطوير نظام الخدمه في دائره جنسية الدجيل بالدمج بين شبكات صفوف الانتظار وسلاسل ماركوف == Develop A System Service In The Department of Dujail Hitch Integration Between Queues Networks And Markov Chains

Author name: احمد حسن سلمان
Supervisor name: صباح منفي رضا الشمري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد مساله تقيم الاداء وايجاد معدل زمن انتظار المراجع في كل محطه خدمه وفي النظام بشكل عام من المسائل المهمه التي تحتاج الى دراسه وتحليل من خلال العلاقه بين دائره الجنسيه والمجتمع مع الاخذ بالحسبان نسبه المعاملات التي تخرج بنجاح ونسبه المعاملات التي تخرج بف | The issue of performance and evaluated the rate of time waiting to find references in each At the service station in the system of important issues that need to be Study and analysis of the relationship between the Department of Naturalization and the community with Taking in to account the percentage of transactions that come out successfully and the percentage of transactions Out that failure as well as developing the work of the outgoing and incoming and building Database can be accessed as quickly as possible.This research deals with the study and analysis of the importance of applying theories And networks of queues and Markov chains to evaluate the performance and the expense of Average time waiting for references in all service stations and independent And the application of the model M / M / C in each station and find the average time expected Wait in the system in general and find a matrix transition and the percentage of Transactions that come out successfully and the percentage of transactions that come out of all failure in Service station, and the research aims to reach a scientific indicators Logical and can be embodied in practice in the development of plans to address weaknesses in Circle.The study concludes a set of findings and recommendations, where researcher found That by increasing the number of staff (secretary of the civil registry) by (2) in The third leg of reducing the rate of time flow in the network (0.93496 / H) to (0.737795 / H) and to study the importance of applying And circulated to all spheres of citizenship in Iraq, which will be a Scientific base in the development of future plans to address the weaknesses in The circle

بناء منظومة خبيرة لتشخيص التقارب لبعض التوزيعات الاحتمالية المتقطعة == Design An Expert System To Determine The Approximation In Some of Probability Distribution

Author name: وليد مية رودين
Supervisor name: علي عبد الحسين الوكيل
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاستخدام الكبير والمستمر للتوزيعات الاحتمالية جعل هذا الحقل المتخصص متميزا في علم الاحصاء حيث يدل على مجموعه من الاحتمالات المرتبطة بقيم متغير عشوائي ناتج عن نوع خاص من التجارب , فعلى سبيل المثال توزيع ثنائي الحدين فان قيم المتغير العشوائي المرتبط بت | The wide and continuous use for probability distribution made this specialized field distinctive in statistics science , that leads to a bunch of choices connected to values of random variable results from especial kind of experiments , as example binomial distribution the values of the random variable related to its experiments satisfies specific general conditions follows this distribution , when we study this distribution we can exclude expert on expectation related to all experiments that satisfies these general conditions according on what precedes it is suggested a(unit) instead of an statistics expert in searching field Depending of what precedes, we suggested a system instead of a statistical expert in the ( domain of determination of the approximation values ) between the probability distribution and determine the fit distribution of users data , The suggested system is an (statistical expert system ) , which have took its statistical knowledge from scientific resources and human experience to provide the needed consultation , which can be provided and any statistical expert (ITD) This system has a statistical knowledge base about , binomial distribution , and poisson and the relationship between a normal distribution , in addition to the statistical knowledge to determine the value that must the binomial approximate to the poisson , also the case is lead to approximated to the normal distribution.Also it has a statistical knowledge to calculate all distributions probabilities, in addition to all other measurements

المقارنة بين اختبار Shapiro - wilk وJureckova باستخدام المحاكات ولعدة توزيعات == Coodness - Of - Fit Test In Non Paramatric Tests

Author name: وفاء جاسم محمد العقابي
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: البحث يدرس عملية المقارنة بين اختبار (Shapiro - wilk) واختبار (Juareckova) قبل التوسيع وبعده. عندما اقترح Shapiro - wilk اختبار حسن المطابقة الحدسي( Nuisance location and Scaie Parameters ). ثم توسيعه الى حالة انحدار الازعاج المكاني ومعالم القياس (Nui | The research subject is the studying of the comparison between ( Shapiro - Wilk) and (Jurekov'a) test before and after the expansion , studying the effect of the sample size on the comparison, also the effect on test function distribution i.e.(diagnosing which tests asymptotic from the normal distribution ). Then applying the generating data which is simulated by several distributions which are normal distribution, Cauchy distribution, Laplace distribution, Logistic distribution, by changing the significance level ? by taking ( ? =0.01 ?= 0.05 ?= 0.1) The used assumption in this study is to study the matching between faults distribution and the distributions used in the study.

بناء انموذج رياضي لتجزئة التخطيط الاجمالي (DISAGGREGATE) مع تطبيق == Building A Mathematical Model To Fractionation The Total Planning (DISAGGREGATE) With Practical Application

Author name: وعود سالم عباس
Supervisor name: عبد الجبار خضر بخيت
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تناولت الدراسة موضوع تخطيط الانتاج الاجمالي لشركة الفداء العامة التابعة لوزارة الصناعة والمعادن من خلال تجميع جميع منتجات هذه الشركة التي تشترك بعضها بالبعض الاخر ضمن خصائص وقت التنصيب ووقت الانتاج وكلف الخزين على شكل ثلاث عوائل انتاجية هي (الاسطوانات اله | The study Addressed the total production planning to the fadaa public company redemption of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals by grouping all the products of this company that share to each other the other part of the time of installation and production time characteristics and cost inventories on three families of productivity is a form (hydraulic cylinders, Aldblatt (dampers), wiring, hydraulic ) by building a mathematical model based on a set of strategies for overall planning for the purpose of optimization of the potential productivity and reduce costs through the production process style of programming integers and unity of time, measured month. Also it addressed the issue of fragmentation of the total production planning (fragmentation of families) to the main purpose of their products to meet the demands of customers relying on the main indicators of the first model as inputs to tsecondmodeandStatement of distractions during the implementation of production lines, which depends on the first mathematical model outputs to reduce distractions for a total of one family products during the implementation of production lines and accelerate the process of implementation of the products on time through the use of proper programming setup using linear programming method within a week Transaction It serves as a so - called production schedule chairman, and through the application of the models show that the total costs of the company in accordance with the mathematical models used was (361,407,800) million while the cost of the company executing the plan and the duration of time itself in 2014 has reached (390 330 100) million, a difference of (28,922,300), and this is evidence of optimization models for production planning.

طرائق تقدير انموذج راش للبيانات المصنف متعددة القياسات مع تطبيق عملي == Methods of Estimating The Rasch Model For Multiple Categorical Data Measurements With Practical Application

Author name: وضاح صبري ابراهيم المناصير
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعتبر انموذج راش (The Rasch model)، من اهم نماذج نظرية السمة الكامنة (Latent Trait Theory) للنظرية المعاصرة لقياس سلوك الفرد، المبني على البيانات المصنفة، وهو احد نماذج الاستجابة للفقرة الاحادية البعد، بمعنى ان درجة الفرد في الاختبار لا يجب ان تكون دالة ( | Rasch Model is considered as one of the important models in Latent Trait Theory for the contemporary Theory to measuring human behavior that depends on categorized data. It is one of the response models for one dimension point i.e., the mark of an individual within test mustn’t be regarded as an evaluation for other individual’s samples that are used within Item Calibration.Therefore, the thesis aims at comparing some methods for Rasch Model’s parameters for Categorical Data Measurement by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).The following methods are also used : The Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (JML), The Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (MLE), Cohen’s Approximation Estimation Method (CAE), and Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEM ) and the first adjusted Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEMFS ) and the second adjusted Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEMSS ). The thesis includes a suggestion for a method to find the initial values of Rasch model’s parameters that are used in the previous mentioned methods and simulation is also used for overgeneralizing the results for the methods within various sizes levels, in which n : (n=10 , n=25 , n=75 , n=150 , n=300 , n=500 ) and ( n ) represents the individuals and (m) represents the number of the items ( m= 10 , m= 25 , m=35 , m= 45 ) and four different distributions are used ( Binomial , Poisson , Normal , Beta ). It is found that the best method for estimating the parameter of item difficulty (?_j), is The Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (JML) and the best method for estimating the parameter of individual’s ability (B_i), is the Bayesian Estimation Method of the Second Adjusted. Danial’s test for intelligence is used in AL - Mustansyria University, College of Administration and Economics, Fourth year, morning studies only and the number of students are (531). The main conclusions are : By comparing all the methods with the suggested ones to estimate Rasch model’s parameters , it is found that the best estimating for the parameter of individual’s ability (B_i), is the Bayesian Estimation Method of the Second Adjusted by depending on the smallest value for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and all the distributions are concrete and constant. It is found by comparing the methods to estimate the parameter of item difficulty (?_j) that the Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method is the best for estimation , in which Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is appeared with the smallest value and for all the concrete and constant distributions. It is found from the average of the correct answers of the testes that the tests items are within a closed level for each item and this gives the opportunity to students to answer the items. It is found from the average of the correct answers of the testes that the average of response is very good and it is between ( 0.47 - 0. 26 ) for more than 500 students from the total 531. This shows the similarity between students to have Danial’s test for intelligence. It is found from standards statistics ( T ) for the test items after comparing them with the tabled value for the natural distribution of the moral connotation ( a = 0.05 ) and the value ( 1.6449 ) that all the values without moral connotation and this confirms the acceptance of the test’s items to apply it on students’ sample which has different levels of difficulty but still parallel.

العوامل المؤثرة على الاوضاع الصحية والتعليمية في العراق ضمن مسح شبكة معرفة العراق (IKN) لعام 2011 باستعمال التحليل العنقودي == Factors Affecting The Health And Educational Conditions In Iraq As Part of Iraq Knowledge Network Survy (IKN) 2011 By Using Cluster Analysis

Author name: وسن عبد الهادي كاظم الجبوري
Supervisor name: هاني عبد الله حسن
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر دراسة مؤشرات الصحة والتعليم وتحليلها، من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية.لذلك اختار الباحث هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات مسح شبكة معرفة العراق IKN للاسرة في العراق الذي نفذ خلال ال | The study of health and education indicators and analysis of important issues for Iraq, which aims to achieve economic and social development of more realistic.So chose researcher this search , using the scanning knowledge network Iraq IKN family in Iraq who carried out during the year 2011 from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the subsequent construction plans for health and education depending on the data of this survey, and using the bag statistical programs ready (SPSS) to reach the variables health and education have a direct impact on the level of the country.Showed signs of health and education in Iraq as follows : The number of households surveyed 29785 , while the number of families not responding has reached 910 families at a higher rate 3.9% , meaning that the response rate was % 96.9 , as the number of households responding 28875 Dynasty recorded the highest rates of response each of the provinces ( Qadisiyah , Diyala and Salah al - Din ) the lowest response rates were in the provinces ( Dohuk and Erbil ) as the average number of individuals in the family 6.4 persons.As has been the adoption of style cluster analysis and conversion data variables ten ( which is the health situation : - the difficulty in vision , difficulty hearing , difficulty in movement , difficulty remembering or concentrating, difficulty communicating with others, difficulties in self - care , assess the health of the individual, educational status, enrollment of individual educational institutions, the number of years its entirety individual successfully) to the formula normative and to get rid of the different units of measure these variables and thus ensure the health of the implementation phase of the process of data classification and determine the extent of the relationship between the elements in terms of similarity or difference and are in the final phase entry in clustering methods and analysis.The study includes four chapters of the first chapter includes the introduction and the goal of the research and the research methodology and the data source in addition to the historical background of the analysis of the cluster , Chapter II contains the theoretical side , which includes statistical analysis using the method of cluster analysis , while the third chapter goes out to analyze the data ( the practical side ) and using the bag statistical programs ready (version20) SPSS to get to the health and education indicators which have a direct impact on the country's development and health education , the fourth quarter from which to determine the conclusions that are accessible through this study also includes recommendations and sources.The results of the cluster analysis to health and education indicators that there is a convergence between neighboring provinces a bilateral clustering problem , linked to adjacent provinces , which demonstrates the striking similarity in patterns of health and education between these provinces.There are provinces have autonomy relative from other provinces and sometimes appear individually , such as conservative ( Erbil , Dohuk, Diyala) being characterized by the conditions of health and education are different from others, it is useful to recall that the Diyala province was experiencing exceptional circumstances during the period of the survey , and the provinces and in particular the province of Kurdistan Erbil so it passes through the economic growth phase sets it apart from the rest of the provinces.Characterized by the province of Baghdad ( urban) and ( rural ) Convergence the ( health and education ) with the Central provinces of Iraq in the late stage as moving away from clustering with its neighboring provinces in the early stages of being the capital.There are no general trend for the clustering of Maysan province , as we see Sometimes clustered with the central provinces , we see Sometimes clustered with the northern provinces, and sometimes we see other clustered with the province of Anbar , Diyala and reflects the instability of this poor province.In general , the central and southern governorates health and educational characteristics differ from the characteristics of the northern provinces. The results showed that there is a similarity between attended the provinces for health and education variables , and note the complete hierarchical cluster assembly reflecting the early stages of the provinces affected by the conditions of the country in general.Rural province of Sulaymaniyah as special - way found clustring the late stages , and along the tree line in the chart evidence of the lack of similarity of conditions of health and education from other provinces countryside. Sulaymaniyah also attended the same property

مقارنة طرائق تقدير المعلمات والمعولية لانماذج الاختبارات المعجلة والنمو لبيانات المراقبة من النوع الثاني مع تطبيق عملي

Author name: ورود باسم نور بهية
Supervisor name: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نظرا لاهمية المعولية في التطبيقات الصناعية والهندسية فقد ظهرت الحاجة لاختبارات المعولية والتي هي سلسلة من الاختبارات والكشف عن العوامل التي تظهر خلال الاختبار وتاثيرات ومسببات عطل الماكنة نتيجة سوء الاستخدام وغيرها من الاسبباب وكذلك معرفة مدى ملائمة الان | Reliability has an important role in both the industrial and engineering applications. So the need for Reliability Tests appeared are series of tests a discover out of factors that appear through the test, also an effects too casese to defuse, probably to be created cases misuse a machine and other than, knowledge limit of fit a specifics production addition for getting on goodness of production. Therefore, the need for research to set of tests for censor data from ( Type II ) for exponential distribution with one parameter and these tests it’s (Accelerated Life Testing) to complete estimation parameters and reliability for the test models and these models it’s (Accelerated Cycling, Constant Stress ,Arrhenius and Eyring ) with tow methods ( maximum likelihood method, least squares method ) for all models above ,either Number of Units on Test To be complete calculation number of units inside in the test. And the other test is Reliability Growth includes three curves are Idealized Growth curve estimation parameters and reliability with maximum likelihood method, Duane Growth curve takes estimation parameters and reliability with least squares method, Exponential Reliability Growth Curve take estimation parameters and reliability by means of constraints for finding an optimal solution. Also The thesis so falls into four chapters. the first chapter is the introduction, the objective of the thesis as well as the review of literature. the second chapter tackles theoretical aspects contains exponential distribution,properties exponential distribution, estimation method, acceptance testing, accelerated life test, reliability growth testing and confidence intervals. The third chapter(application side)include tow parts,the first takes censor data (type II) from source (separate the soap off Al - Rasheed factory) and subjugate it for goodness of fit tests to be complete application on accelerated and growth tests, the second takes the simulation experimental and compared between estimation parameters for tests accelerated and growth for all models the test by depending on the statistic measure (MSE). Finally, the fourth chapter contains the more important findings and recommendations as well as the future visions which the thesis included. Also the thesis contains computer programs prepared by the researcher as well as another especial attaches.

طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط الخطي الطبيعي الملتوي في حالة القياسات المكررة مع تطبيق عملي == Method of Estimating Parameters of The Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model In The Case of Repeated Measures With Practical Application

Author name: هند وليد عبد الرحمن الجبوري
Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذا البحث دراسة احد اهم النماذج الواسعة الاستعمال والتطبيق في تحليل البيانات التي تتصف بكون المشاهدات فيها تاخذ شكل قياسات مكررة Repeated Measures والذي يعد تعميم للانموذج المختلط الخطي (LMM) في حالة عدم تحقق الطبيعية Normality، وهو الانموذج المختل | In this research, the one of the most important widely used and application model was studied in analysis the data which are described by the observations take repeated measures form, which regarded as generalization of Linear Mixed Model (LMM) in the case of the lack normality, it is the Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model (SN - LMM), which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the observations take repeated measures form and correlated among of them, this model express of these correlations by the random effect, it also achieved normality through the assumption that the data are distributed multivariate skew normal distribution.Also the research is concerned with the multivariate skew distribution generally and multivariate skew normal distribution specially with addressing the importance and used of these distributions, then dealing with the Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model (SN - LMM) from its importance, used, properties, modeling, and parameters estimation methods Three important method are used for estimation the fixed effect parameters, random effect parameters and skewness parameters, in addition a proposed method by researcher, these methods are : 1) Maximum likelihood (ML) Method.2) Restricted Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method.3) Bayes Method.4) Proposed Method.A comparison among the best of these methods is made in the application aspect which contained the practical application on two clinical experiment including two samples of diabetic patients data, Who were given a new drug, the data of two samples are represent the repeated monthly measures for the level of sugar and some other variables which are taken for patient from the beginning of the experiment, after three months , and after six months from start to give them the new drug, in aim to study the effect of age and sex, which represented the fixed effect, also the visits times, that the repeated monthly measures are taken in these visits for the sugar level and other variables which represented the random effect, the comparison among the best method are held by using statistical standard the Mean Square Error (MSE), it was found in general that the proposed method is the best to estimate the fixed effects because of its lower mean square error compared to other methods, and the Bayes method is the best among these method to estimate the random effect and random errors because of its lower mean square error compared to other methods.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير معلمات الانـموذج الثنائي اللوجستك المختلط باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيق عملي == Comparing The Estimation Methods of The Parameters of The Logistic Linear Mixed Model By Using The Simulation With Practical Application

Author name: هند وليد عبد الرحمن الجبوري
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذا البحث دراسة احد اهم النماذج الواسعة الاستخدام والتطبيق في تحليل البيانات التي تاخذ شكل تجمعات Clustered والتي تكون ذات استجابات مرتبطة Correlated وهو الانموذج الخطي العام المختلطGeneralized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) لتحليل البيانات الطولية Long | This research was conserning in the study of one of the important models that are widely used in analyzing the data which take clustered form and have correlated responses, this model is Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) for analyzing the longitudinal data which it's responses are correlated. So this research was dealing with this model in an expanded form including its importance, uses, feature, modeling and the estimation methods then focusing on one of the most widely used examples when the responses of longitudinal Data are Binary which is Binary Logistic Mixed Model taking into account its modeling, importance, uses and the parameters estimation methods, so three important estimation methods were used to estimate the fixed and random effects parameters and these are : 1) Classical maximum likelihood (ML) Method.That include three basic algorithm by which the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained and it's as follows : I) Monte Carlo Newton Raphson (MCNR).II) Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM).III) Simulation Maximum Likelihood (SML).2) Robust Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method.3) Penalized - Quasi Likelihood (PQL) Method.In the experimental aspect comparison was done of which is the best among these methods through the simulation procedure by using Monte Carlo method and implementing several experiments using two of the important statistical measures which are Mean Square Error (MSE) and Bias, generally as a result it was found that Robust Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method is the best between these methods as it has minimum Mean square error and minimum bias comparing with the other methods.While in the application aspect practical application was done on data represent the successive monthly measurements for diebetic children whom depend on the insulin treatment which represent the fixed effect and the patient represents the random effect in order to study the effect of both the insulin dose and the patient on the blood sugar rate, it was found that the insulin dose has significant effect on the blood sugar rate while the patient has not that effect

استخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية في التببؤ بمحصول الحنطة في جنوب العراق == The Use of Geographic Information Systems In The Prediction of The Wheat Crop In Southern Iraq

Author name: هلاء سعدون شكر
Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The wheat crop is considered one of the most important strategic food crops and takes the first place in some countries in the world. So this crop requires growth control began from the time of planting and until harvesting. The study focused on predicting the productivity of wheat crop in township Shihamia / Essaouira district / in Wasit province as a model adopted for the rest of Iraq's provinces by using technologies (Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems) in devising data independent of the factorsthat have affected the productivity of the crop using (Geostatistic) analysis through (kriging) tool in an environment (Arcgis), and visual satellite captured from satellite (landsat 8) is also used. The extraction of natural vegetative differences guide (NDVI), as evidence showed reflectivity values ranging between ( - 0.02 - 0.5) as the minimum value of the evidence which indicated that the production of wheat crop in these places is low. The upper limit indicated that the production of wheat crop is high density in thoseareas. The surface temperature extracted from the space visible as well as the natural vegetative differences guide. Results indicate that the month of March is one of the appropriate months to get to know the productivity of wheat crop. The results showed when conducting analysis in the SPSS program that factor relative humidity though influential in the expected output when using directory natural vegetative differences values (NDVI). The climatic factors and the surface temperature and salinity influential in expected production in Geostatistic analysis, as Geostatistic analysis in an environment (Arcgis) is better than in the SPSS statistical analysis software because it depends on the spatial relationships between the studied samples

المقارنة بين الطرائق الاحصائية المستخدمة في التنبؤ لاستيراد بعض المواد الغذائية في العراق == A Comparision of Statistical Methods That Using For Forcasting To Importing Som Material Foods In The Iraq

Author name: هديل محمد زكي مهدي
Supervisor name: سهيل نجم عبود
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الاستيراد احد الظواهر الاقتصادية التي تساهم في تحقيق الامن الغذائي وسد الفجوة الغذائية، وللتمكن من دراسة التغيرات التي تحصل في الظواهر الاقتصادية في المستقبل وتحديد قيم هذه التغيرات لابد من الاعتماد على انشاء السلاسل الزمنية وتحليلها، ويعد اسلوب تحليل | The import of the economic phenomena that contribute to the achievement of food security and bridging the food gap, and to be able to study the changes that happen in the economic phenomena in the future and determine the values of these changes to be relying on the establishment of the time series and analyzed, as is the style of the time series of the most important statistical methods analysis used in the prediction of random phenomena in the future values based on what happened in the past, which helps in the development of sound future plans for economic development. In this research were compared between two methods to predict the import quantities of rice, wheat and sugar for the next five years (General Trend Methods, and the Method of Box - Jenkins), where he was relying on the criterion of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to compare the methods used to figure out the best way to predict. Proven method of Box - Jenkins superiority on the General Trend Methods while the best model of Box - Jenkins models to predict the quantities of imported rice is ARIMA(0,1,2), and the best model to predict the quantities of imported wheat was ARIMA(1, 1,1), either imported sugar amounts was the best model ARIMA(0,1,1), and based on the predicted values through the Box - Jenkins models, it was observed that there is an increase in imported quantities for each of rice and wheat in the next five years, either sugar amounts appeared there proven to import.

بناء انموذج ديناميكي وانموذج هدفي في ظل البيئة الضبابية مع تطبيق عملي == Building of Dynamic Model And Goal Model Under Fuzzy Environment With Practical Application

Author name: هبة الله سعد عبد الغني
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في مشكلة اقصر مسار لشبكة اعتيادية يفترض بان يكون صانع القرار متاكدا من البيانات في الشبكة, والتي تمثل الوقت والمسافة والكلفة...الخ, لكن في واقع الحياة توجد دائما شكوك حول هذه البيانات اي لايمكن تحديدها بشكل دقيق, ففي مثل هذه الحالة يتم تمثيلها بالاعداد | In the shortest path problem of classical network, It is supposed that the decision maker has assured from network data ,which represent time , distance and cost …etc. But in real live there are always suspicions about these data that is may not be determined exactly , in this case it is represented by fuzzy numbers.In this thesis a directed acyclic network was built with times represented by triangular fuzzy numbers to find to transport the medicines from Iscan store to Al_Amal hospital of cancer tumors where the shortest path has minimum time among other paths in the network ,two deferent methods were used for solving the problem, the first method is Bellman dynamic programming.In this method a fuzzy times are treated by signed distance ranking method and solve the problem as classical network. The second method is to formulate the problem with fuzzy times as a multi objective linear programming model and use the weighted additive method to unite the objective functions as a single objective function with a defined weights and then solve the problem classical linear programming we found the shortest path in both the methods are same and minimum time in the first method equal to the optimal solution for second method , and in addition minimum fuzzy time in the second method Is obtained.

تقديرات الهجرة الداخلية في العراق باستخدام النماذج السكانية == Internal Migration Estimates In Iraq By Using Population Models

Author name: هالة وليد حمدي الزبيدي
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري | خالد زهدي مصطفى خواجه
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ادى تزايد حركة السكان في العراق الى حصول هجرة داخلية.و لاهمية هذه المشكلة وما ترتب عليها من نتائج، لذا فقد حاولت الباحثة من خلال هذه الدراسة تحليل البيانات التي لها علاقة في نماذج حركة الهجرة الداخلية.وتهدف الى استنباط تيارات الهجرة الداخلية في القطر،وذ | Population Increasing movements in Iraq cause an internal migration. In spite of danger of this problem and what effects of it, so the researcher has tried through this study analysis the data, which relation in internal migration on models. Aiming at internal migration streams in country by using special population models of internal migration by direct and indirect methods. First chapter including general entrance displays general concepts and determines the problem and the purpose of the research and its importance and the background. The second chapter is measuring internal migration in Iraq and discusses the methods of the measure, the principal data references for migration, population distribution, the internal migration data in Iraqi census, the problem and difficulty of migration, the method of measuring internal migration from the census data is discussed by direct methods like Birth place, Duration of residence, The last residence and The reason of changing the residence place. The indirect methods like Vital statistics, The Survival ratio and National growth rate. The third chapter discusses the study of migration rates and ratios in Iraq and the demographic trace and divided into direct method like migration stream rates and in - migration, out - migration, net - migration rates and Birth - residence index, Gross intercensal interchange of population and Basic model. Indirect method like migration rates by using Survival ratio rates method, Vital statistics rates method, National growth rates method, and discuss the mathematical model and its relationship to internal migration, migration economic, demographic traces and migration effect on population growth. And the impetuses to internal migrations movement. The forth chapter discuss some important conclusions and recommendations.

العوامل المؤثرة على انتاج بعض المحاصيل الحقلية في العراق == Factors Affecting The Production of Some Field Crops In Iraq

Author name: نور كمال عبد الكريم
Supervisor name: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نظرا لاهمية زراعة المحاصيل الحقلية في العراق لتوفير الغذاء وتحقيق الاكتفاء الذاتي وكانت محافظة كربلاء واحدة من محافظات العراق التي تمتاز بتوفير رقعة الاراضي الصالحة للزراعة ولخصوصية هذه المنطقة اذ تشكل الاراضي الرملية نسبة كبيرة من اراضيها لذا من الضرو

التنبؤ بانتاج التمور في الفرات الاوسط باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية == Forecasting Production of Dates In The Middle Euphrates Using Time Series

Author name: نعمة ساهون شنان
Supervisor name: رباب عبد الرضا صالح البكري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد العراق من اقدم مواطن النخيل في العالم وكان لاشجار النخيل ومنتجاتها وبساتينها اهمية بالغة في الحياة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية على مر العصور باعتبارها من اهم المصادر الغذائية والمعاشية، وان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية والتنبؤ بها من الاساليب الاحصائية المهمة في | Iraq is one of the oldest homes of palm in the world and was a palm trees and the products and orchards of extreme importance in the economic and social life throughout the ages as one of the most important food sources and living. The time - series analysis and forecasting it is of important statistical methods in the construction of the future plans of the phenomena of life in all directions and interpreted through certain periods of time. In this research was to predict the time series to date production in the provinces of the Middle Euphrates in Iraq, which included the provinces (Karbala, Babil, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Muthanna) using time - series models, including the general trend models, Exponential smoothing models, Box - Jenkins models in order to choose the best model of each of these models has been shown that the best model of the general trend models is the model the Quadratic trend and that the best model of exponential smoothing models is single exponential smoothing model and the model ARIMA (2,1,1) is the best Box - Jenkins models it gives accurate predictions through calculable Q account and compared ?², which shows the appropriateness of the model Has been predicted for the coming years, the use of the models above.

تقدير الفعالية النسبية لانموذج القطع المكافئ في تجارب نسبة الميل لقياس تاثير زيتي الزعتر والكتان على الوزن == Estimation of Relative Potency For Parabolic Model In Slope Ratio Assays To Measure Effect of Thyme And Flax Oils On Weight

Author name: نضال بهجت محي الحيالي
Supervisor name: قيس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتناول البحث تقدير الفعالية النسبية (Relative Potency) لزيت الزعتر(الاختباري) نسبة الى الكتان (القياسي) لانموذج غيرخطي (parabolic model) باستعمال طريقة احصائية تكرارية وهي : (طريقة البحث الخطي) ودراسة تاثيرالتكرار عند الجرعة صفر فقط لمعرفة مدى الابتعاد عن | This study deals with the problem of estimation the relative potency of thymus oil and linum oil , for parabolic model by using the : line search method , and we study the effect of replication at zero dose and near zero dose on the type of relationship whether is linear or not , we partition the thesis into five chapters , the first included the introduction and the aim of this research work and historical review, the second chapter included the theoretical part where we stated the relative potency estimation method for nonlinear model, the third chapter went through the experiential part of this research work, the four chapter went through the practical part of this research work, finally chapter five went through the conclusions and recommendations of this research work, we conclude that the potency of thymus oil is (0.115) times the linum oil according to the parabolic model

اسقاطات القوى العاملة، التعليم والصحة للتركيب العمري - النوعي لسكان العراق للمدة (1997 - 2017) == Projections of The Labor Force, Education And Health For Age Structure - Quality of The Iraqi Population For The Period (1997 - 2017)

Author name: ندى احمد امين
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان هدف معظم الاسقاطات السكانية هو ان تقدم تنبؤا مستقبليا بشكل تقريبي عن عدد السكان، ومثل هذه الاسقاطات تحسب على اساس افتراض الاستمرار المستقبلي المعقول للاتجاهات المؤثرة على المتغيرات الديموغرافية لحجم السكان التي على ضوء نتائجها يمكن مواجهة الاحتياجا | The goal of most population projections is to provide a predictable as it is approximation of the number of the population, and such projections are calculated on the basis of the presumption of continuing future reasonable trends affecting the demographic variables of population size, And that in the light of the results can meet human needs in various fields of economic, social and political issues related to. Years and the fact that the last census in Iraq was in 1997 for each of Iraq's provinces except the province of Kurdistan was necessary to address and correct the census data for the base year (1997), adopted Spectrum program is ready to get on the population projections for the period (1997 - 2017) and from Age projections - for each quality of the workforce - health and education to build a base Demographic data and broad adoption in many purposes such as planning and development. The research is divided into five chapters include the first (Introduction and objective of this research, studies and research The former) and II (the theoretical side, test and pave the data) and III (data Basic assumptions) The fourth chapter dealt with the practical side has included a chapter V presents conclusions that were reached and the most important recommendations that the researcher deems necessary

تحليل وقياس اتجاهات الفقر في العراق للمدة 1980 - 2005

Author name: ندوة هلال جودة
Supervisor name: نبيل جعفر عبد الرضا المرسومي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

مقارنة طرائق المويجة المتقلصة لتقدير انموذج الانحدار اللامعلمي في حالة عدم تجانس التباين

Author name: نبيلة عبد الهادي فائز الشريف
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان اساليب الانحدار اللامعلمي توفر طريقة كفوءة في ايجاد شكل في مجاميع البيانات بدون فرض انموذج انحدار معلمي حيث اننا نلجا للانحدار اللامعلمي عندما لا نملك انموذج معلمي محقق منه بصورة جيدة للموضوع قيد الدراسة او عندما نملك انموذج معلمي محقق منه بصورة جيدة

تحليل احصائي مقارن لانفاق الاسرة العراقية باستخدام المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة (2007) ومسح شبكة معرفة العراق (2011) == Comparative Statistical Analysis of Family Spending In Iraqi Depending On Social And Economic Survey (2007) And Iraqi Knowledge Network Survey (2011)

Author name: نبيل صالح محمد رضا معله
Supervisor name: سهيل نجم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد الدراسات الخاصة بالانفاق والطلب على السلع والخدمات من اهم الدراسات الاقتصادية وذلك لاهمية الانفاق في عملية التخطيط الاقتصادي من جهة ولكونه يمثل جوانب مهمة من تفصيلات الحياة اليومية للمواطن من جهة ثانية. اختار الباحث هذا البحث بالاستعانة ببيانات المسح | The studies of spending and demand for goods and services is the most important economic studies, to the importance of spending in the process of economic planning on the one hand and because it represents important aspects of the details of daily life of the citizen on the other hand.Researcher selected this research, using data survey of social and economic status of families in Iraq who carried out during the year (2007) and the survey data of network knowledge of Iraq (IKN) for the year (2011), which were carried out by Central Bureau of Statistics. For comparison in the pattern of distribution of spending on various goods and services and using the ready software package Statistical (SPSS) to gain access to the results. Been tested nature of the distribution of variables tunnels and it emerged as natural distributing and studying differences of variables between the two surveys emerged that there are significant differences of the goods (beverages, clothing, health, communications, services) while no significant differences for goods (food, electricity, furniture, transportation , entertainment, education , hotels).this research has divided to four chapters. The first chapter touch on the natural of spending, previous studies and most important budget researches of the family, while the second chapter deal with the theoretical side, and some basic concepts of analysis the global and the cluster, while the third chapter deal with the practical side of the data obtained ,in Chapter four the most important conclusions and recommendations has been developed.

مقارنة مقدر المنوال الحصين مع بعض المقدرات الاخرى ولمعلمة الموقع == Comparing The Robust Estimator of The Mode With Some Other Estimators For Location Parameter

Author name: نازك جعفر صادق
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The robust estimators are these estimators which resist all cases of data contamination by outlier values which are suitable to a wide sector of distribution. The present values deals with searching for the best estimator for location because this topic is important for the high frequency cases of contamination. Hence it is important to use robust ways in choosing the best robust estimator which being affected by outlier values. The aim of this study is to choose the estimator which is most immune to asymmetric distributions and to any rate of contamination. It also aims at studying the function of such an estimator through simulation experiments which take many cases into consideration.The study falls into four chapters. The first chapter is an introductory one which includes the introduction, the aim and a historical servey for certain general concepts which have close relation to the topic understudy. The second chapter deals with the median and robust estimation which include median estimator and other location estimators and the criterion used in the present study. As for the third chapter, it includes the experimental side of the study. Finally, the fourth chapter, it deals with the conclusions and recommendations which the study comes up with.Some of the important which researcher has come up with are that has been able to find a most robust estimator after comparing it with a group of estimators. This estimator is the Robust Parameter Estimator (RPM). It can be considered much better than many available robust estimators.

الاسقاطات السكانية لمحافظـــة البصـــرة للفتـــرة (1997 - 2022) باستخدام نتائج التعداد العام لسنة 1997 في العراق == The Populational Projections of Basrah Governorate For The Period 1997 - 2022

Author name: نادية علي عايد الحميداوي
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري | زهرة حسن عباس التميمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاسقاطات السكانية من الطرائق الاساسية التي تستند عليها اغلب الدراسات والبحوث في مجالات متعدده، اذ ان معرفة اعداد السكان والتغيرات الحاصلة له بصورة مستمرة تعد الركيزة الاساسية التي تعتمد عليها خطط التنمية ولان التعدادات السكانية تجري كل خمس او عشر سن | Populational projections are considered to be the basic methods , which most studies and researches depend upon. By these methods it could be knowing the demographical , social , and economic features of the society , which these are considered to be the bases of most development plans. As the population census is carried out in every five or ten years , so the importance of following the populational projections has been apperied as a good way to be used.The aim of this study is to show the populational projections of Basrah governorate for the peried 1997 - 2022. According to the census of the year 1997 and by using the component method, which requires projections and estimations for the fertility , mortality and migration separatily therefore , we study the level and the direction of fertility for the period before year 1997 , taking into consideration the impacts of the current and future circumstances in the governorate. Besides , we analyse the death data to get the suitable level for these projections. After satisfying all the requirement of population projections , and using components method , the results are got and population of Basrah governorate from the year 1997 to 2022 is evaluated
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