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التنبؤ بانتاج التمور في الفرات الاوسط باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية == Forecasting Production of Dates In The Middle Euphrates Using Time Series
Author name:
نعمة ساهون شنان
Supervisor name:
رباب عبد الرضا صالح البكري
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Applied Statistics
Degree:
Higher Diploma
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4122 - p.pdf
Abstract:
يعد العراق من اقدم مواطن النخيل في العالم وكان لاشجار النخيل ومنتجاتها وبساتينها اهمية بالغة في الحياة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية على مر العصور باعتبارها من اهم المصادر الغذائية والمعاشية، وان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية والتنبؤ بها من الاساليب الاحصائية المهمة في | Iraq is one of the oldest homes of palm in the world and was a palm trees and the products and orchards of extreme importance in the economic and social life throughout the ages as one of the most important food sources and living. The time - series analysis and forecasting it is of important statistical methods in the construction of the future plans of the phenomena of life in all directions and interpreted through certain periods of time. In this research was to predict the time series to date production in the provinces of the Middle Euphrates in Iraq, which included the provinces (Karbala, Babil, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Muthanna) using time - series models, including the general trend models, Exponential smoothing models, Box - Jenkins models in order to choose the best model of each of these models has been shown that the best model of the general trend models is the model the Quadratic trend and that the best model of exponential smoothing models is single exponential smoothing model and the model ARIMA (2,1,1) is the best Box - Jenkins models it gives accurate predictions through calculable Q account and compared ?², which shows the appropriateness of the model Has been predicted for the coming years, the use of the models above.
