المقارنة بين الطرائق الاحصائية المستخدمة في التنبؤ لاستيراد بعض المواد الغذائية في العراق == A Comparision of Statistical Methods That Using For Forcasting To Importing Som Material Foods In The Iraq
Author name:
هديل محمد زكي مهدي
Supervisor name:
سهيل نجم عبود
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Applied Statistics
Degree:
Higher Diploma
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4149 - p.pdf
Abstract:
يعد الاستيراد احد الظواهر الاقتصادية التي تساهم في تحقيق الامن الغذائي وسد الفجوة الغذائية، وللتمكن من دراسة التغيرات التي تحصل في الظواهر الاقتصادية في المستقبل وتحديد قيم هذه التغيرات لابد من الاعتماد على انشاء السلاسل الزمنية وتحليلها، ويعد اسلوب تحليل | The import of the economic phenomena that contribute to the achievement of food security and bridging the food gap, and to be able to study the changes that happen in the economic phenomena in the future and determine the values of these changes to be relying on the establishment of the time series and analyzed, as is the style of the time series of the most important statistical methods analysis used in the prediction of random phenomena in the future values based on what happened in the past, which helps in the development of sound future plans for economic development. In this research were compared between two methods to predict the import quantities of rice, wheat and sugar for the next five years (General Trend Methods, and the Method of Box - Jenkins), where he was relying on the criterion of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to compare the methods used to figure out the best way to predict. Proven method of Box - Jenkins superiority on the General Trend Methods while the best model of Box - Jenkins models to predict the quantities of imported rice is ARIMA(0,1,2), and the best model to predict the quantities of imported wheat was ARIMA(1, 1,1), either imported sugar amounts was the best model ARIMA(0,1,1), and based on the predicted values through the Box - Jenkins models, it was observed that there is an increase in imported quantities for each of rice and wheat in the next five years, either sugar amounts appeared there proven to import.
