اسم المؤلف:
حسين علاوي خليفة
اسم المشرف:
صلاح حسن محمد
المستخلص:
The Asia - Pacific regions strategic is players in the twenty - first century, including the regional system is A historic moment for the task of forming the strategic landscape of the American reaction in the region, which continues to suffer from the problem of consistency or adapt to the current situation, Therefore, the theme for the letter tagged (American Strategy in the Asia - Pacific region in the 21st century : A prospective study) try to discuss the very important strategic interest to being centers of decision - makers in the United States and the Centers for Strategic Studies competent follow the change in American strategic reaction to the Asia - Pacific region. This Call for to the study of the subject through research on options for the United States toward the Asia - Pacific region in the 21st century, hence the researcher started to discuss the barrage of information and broad visions differentiated responsibilities result in differences in perceptions, It back perceptions of the nature - based researchers, according to the aspirations of their Ocean contains many of the actors in the twenty - first century, the (United States, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, Australia and Southeast Asian countries). And the Asia - Pacific regions task in the whole world, the importance of the region from the strategic, economic and cultural fields, as she had a role in building the international system and to formulate strategies. Since the United States the dominant force in the world, they want to control the region through strategically players be suspended region command or technique after strategy America in the world, so as to the nature of the rule of the regional environment in the Asia - Pacific region, It is therefore important to examine this region and reading American strategy and determine the form of strategic interaction and strategic landscape of the United States toward the region, and that it is important to study the region prospective study to extrapolate the past and present, reading and exploring the future of American strategy towards the Asia - Pacific region in the 21st century. Hence the importance of the study to clarify the American strategy towards the Asia - Pacific region and form strategy actor to the region, which will be determined through the work of the regional system in the region which will have arranged their strategy for American leadership in the province. The study had to demonstrate the hypothesis, that the American strategy in the Asia - Pacific region directly affected by power players in this region, Whenever actors and operate under American leadership, as reflected positively on the American strategy toward the region. And vice versa whenever any actors outside the American leadership of the province, as reflected negatively on the American strategy in it, and will therefore not on the American strategy toward the region, but the American strategy at the global level. Therefore, we find that the American strategy in the Asia - Pacific region in the Cold War era, the equilibrium reaction times, and at other times act of hegemony, of the presence of an important competitor representing the Soviet Union (former), as played the United States during the Cold War era to build the system based on the strategy of strategic alliances between the United States and countries of the region, relations with Japan represented the cornerstone of the Asia - Pacific region, and the mechanisms to monitor the implementation of American strategy in the region, nobody had worked on the recruitment of the economic and political variables to achieve the objectives of security and the military, but the region and the policies of the superpowers act as a strategic Acting (PROXY STRATEGY ACTION) for the superpowers, which worked to recruit every owns constituents and the results of its territory to serve its strategies, In spite of the end of the Vietnam War, has made the province considers that the construction of a regional, would have to be away from power struggles Britain, but the 1970s were an important stage for the emergence of players in Asia - Pacific countries such As Japan, China and even Australia, and find other hand there States marched on the path of growth upward, as Southeast Asia. Trying States territory movement sometimes to achieve its strategic, and return to the United strategic alliances with major powers on the other, to protect the interests of both the risk of the Soviet Union, or the United States, Observers of the factors economic and political stage during the 1970s found that the effectiveness of the roles of the major powers or major were very clear, eight Soviet Union began its strategic retreat continuous record because of the economic recession, which they have suffered in the last quarter of the 20th century. In return the United States to qualify for a broader role of a wide area of the act, thus rendering the American strategic owns strategic freedom of action and work to create the Asia - Pacific region through the beginning of a restructuring of the region during the cold war according to the American interests and the requirements of the strategic environment in the province. Such a collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a significant shift in the region came upon unaware prior favorable to the United States in the region, the re - evaluation of Strategy and at all levels (military, security, economic, political and cultural) Therefore, we find that the United States has reconsidered its military presence in the province in an attempt to restructure, let alone to reconsider the security treaties very costly, and this led them relinquish some security treaties with the countries of the region, resort to increase the effectiveness of security relations with either Japan or South Korea, as represented by the military bases of the mechanisms to resolve any threat that may oppose the region, as the rules of control and combat support nature strategically. Eight United States has started to reconsider economic alliances and how they affect the growth of the American economy, as we find that the United States support for the Japanese markets, if the balance of trade exchange to be in favor of Japan, which made a "strategic" option flaw, and despite the fact that Japan the largest importer of primary resources from the United States, as well as oil. It is noticeable also at the political level that the United States has reconsidered its relations with China, which has suffered conflict once and cooperation aimed at other times, and through the adoption of options for dealing with China, are flexible engagement strategy, or containment, But the international environment variables and the change in the structures of the international system in general and the regional system in the Asia - Pacific region, making the United States the option of a flexible strategy to link them to China, and already the effectiveness of US - Chinese relations after the adoption of this policy, especially since US - Chinese conflict by the five field events (Tian Min). But this does not mean that there are files stands at the heart of dialogue and interaction between the two sides of the question of Taiwan and visions between the two sides struggled to deal with them, not to mention the files of human rights and free trade, free cruise American goods to the Chinese market, In contrast to correct the trade balance between the two parties not to mention the issue of public rights, intellectual property and human rights file. As for the American reaction to Russia, the heir of the Soviet Union, bilateral relations took a new direction away from what was happening conflict between the two sides towards building zones of influence and hegemony in the Asia - Pacific region during the Cold War, but after the war, we find that Russia is exhausted economically, it possesses an arsenal of military balance of the United States is not at the level of the Asia - Pacific region, but world - wide, so there American - Russian relations towards building strategic mechanisms of interaction between the two sides towards positive interaction, dialogue region on the modalities for reducing filled nuclear weapons, and we had to activate the (START 1), and the drafting of a convention actors represented b (START 2), and this is what the United States as a very important case, not only to enhance the exclusivity of the region but the entire world, as a military force in the world. and capable of reaching any part of the parties . With regard to regional problems experienced by the Asia - Pacific region, the United States is moving toward dealing with the greatest caution, the importance of the region first, but they want a peaceful solution without prejudice to the interests of the United States Secondly, we find that the nuclear dossier of North Korea as a challenge to the United States in the region, not to mention that it was the first building block of American leadership and modalities activation mechanism strategy, which has made the United States looming between dialogue through the participation of the countries of the region to solve this problem which will be exacerbated a new arms race, not to mention the collapse of the security equation for the Asia - Pacific region, In case of failure to file rounds of dialogue North Korea, the crisis will start on the horizontal spread of nuclear ownership and the beginning of the existence of two players outside the nuclear club, and it appears the capacities of 1994 to reduce the aspirations of the nuclear program of North Korea. for some facilities in the provision of energy and financial aid adopted by the countries of the region, particularly Japan. But India's declaration of nuclear weapons owned, making the United States create Astratgia any emergency threatens American interests, not to mention the recruitment of Indian nuclear program to deter China that the Indian nuclear program directed at China over Pakistan nuclear also. The new problem facing the American leadership, North Korea is to declare the end of 2006 to possess nuclear, causing a new problem and a challenge, we had to confront modalities diplomatic and meaningful dialogue to end this dilemma. For that act as strategic American through interaction with the rest of the region like South Korea and Australia interaction positive and successful, the United States managed, even in light of the financial crisis of 1997, to be regional commander of the administration of the province. But the events of September 11, 2001, have made the United States reconsider Pastratgia overall in the province through the emergence of a new problem, known as political Islam, and worked through the hiring of the province to engage in the war on terror, and along with Afghanistan, Indonesia and the Islamic movements opposed to the interests of American and Australian, As we find that some countries in the region managed recruitment events September 11, through confrontation with the opposition as is the case with China in the territory Xiang, as well as Russia against Chechnya. Thus, we find American strategy taken leadership reaction times, and at other times act hegemony after the events of September 11 in the Asia - Pacific region. Been reached through all phases of this study indicated that the United States and across Astrategia in the Asia - Pacific region, will make a choice among the three options, which were foreseeable consequences to study the future through the use of probabilistic method anticipative that goes to a scene weighting other, through the use of targeting to build scene, starting from the assumption of three scenes for the future find American strategy in the Asia - Pacific region. The first scene (participation) proposal to involve actors in the Asia - Pacific region of Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, Australia and India, aimed at achieving its objectives through Alastrategia employ these States to protect its strategic interests through security treaties and conventions military. With gold Scene II (control), that the United States dominant force in the Asia - Pacific region, because the actors in the region can not compete with the United States, although there are some ideas on the strategy of forging alliances between certain actors in the Asia - Pacific region (China, Russia, India), but the United States was able to dismantle these alliances and control, and so they are now working to establish absolute hegemony, especially after the events of September 11, 2001, for the Asia - Pacific region through the war on terrorism, against any hostile force of its objectives and strategic interests, We also find that the United States was rushing through the consolidation of total domination over the territory. The Scene 3 (Mashhad leadership), which assumed that the United States is through the act of Astrategia leadership, a number of actors in the Asia - Pacific region, such as China, Japan, Russia, Australia, India, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries, Hence, these countries prospered economically and technically, and this is what it wished to search for a role that suits economic size, as a result of increased strategic interests in the region, and shall strive to obtain the status of regional, and in this sense we find the United States, The administration of the territory of both security and military is very expensive for the general budget of the United States, especially the military ones. Hence it is trying to attract countries in the region to participate in security arrangements him, let alone establish more extensive economic forum (APEC), which now consists of most nations in the Asia - Pacific region, and calls for the liberalization of trade and economic exchanges between the countries of the region, contributing to the flow of goods, The removal of customs barriers to increased business efficiency. Eight most countries in the region are members of the World Trade Organization (WOT), and that the problems are to facing Territory of the United States, but that the United States needs to the region's countries to be involved in finding a solution to it, as happened in the tsunami. What solution with South Asian countries, not to mention the growing nuclear armament intentions, as well as avian flu. Eight countries in the region are supporting the idea of leadership instead of domination, hegemony because inhibiting roles and aspirations of the regional scene while the leadership gives them the freedom to exercise roles under American leadership.Eight Mashhad leadership at the institution is the American decision - making is very acceptable, especially through support of raises thinkers missiles in the United States, and therefore we find that the sight of leadership is most likely scene of the alleged scenes in this letter during the first half of the twenty - first century. The above can be accessed at the following conclusions : - 1 - that the United States would command the scene as "strategic" option actually one of the Territory to quote the first half of the twenty - first century in the Asia - Pacific region, in accordance with the nature of the emergence of the major powers in the region, eight international forces so far failed to abandon the United States as a leader regional player, and this is what we see as the nature of the regional administration in the Asia - Pacific region. 2 - that India and China are the two candidates because they presentational forces in the region after 2050, according to the nature of the growth of national economies (India, China), the transition from a Second Wave (industrial), to a third wave (informatics) This will modernize economic infrastructure through advanced technical. 3 - Korean unity that will be realized during 2025, according to data strategic environment in the Asia - Pacific region, North Korea would not be able to abandon the one economics task in the province of South Korea's economy, not to mention that South Korea can not dispense with the Korean military machine. that will support an effective political role for the unified Korea in the Territory result changing economic interaction with the changing military, which will generate or require a strategic role that suits the size of strategic capacities of the two Koreas, and this depends on the dialogue between the parties, as well as the development of amazement strategic decision makers, as well as recognition of the importance of unity born of the United States, which will work on the unity party in the event that the State is convinced the new leadership of the United States of the territory. 4 - Japan needs to take a time - perhaps the first quarter of this century to restore the effectiveness Alastrategy seeks to contribute to the real leadership of the Asia - Pacific region, as well as participating in the security arrangements for the territory, and this depends on the availability of the following conditions : - i. Work on the fundamental changes in the Japanese Constitution includes a number of paragraphs of the Constitution and the direction that leads to revitalize its political role, first and foremost building military and Alastrategia aim . Ii. Seeking to alleviate the fears of neighboring countries (China, South Korea and North Korea) to the escalation of military spending and growing military capabilities, and increasing signs and indicators of possession of a peaceful nuclear program capable of evolving shift towards a military nuclear project very easily, as well as the entry in the framework of the deployment of missile shield system, after cooperation with the United States in the deployment, protection from any attack emergency. Iii. Seeking to increase their international, especially in the United Nations and its specialized agencies as the place most importantly to support their political future, and possession of a permanent seat on the Security Council. 5 - Although the international situation, which has become the cold war, and turning Russia unilateral role as a superpower, but it is still one of the actors in the new international order, as well as the Asia - Pacific region, Russia started the gradual return to the acquisition missing, and it is expected that the end of the first half of this century will witness the integration of active regional role in the Asia - Pacific region to Russia, it can not be the role of Russia without a global or even regional, by virtue of history and geography. 6 - The issue of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, especially to prepare more security issues will be wide interest from the United States during the current stage, leading to a convention or treaty limiting nuclear proliferation in the Asia - Pacific region.
