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تاثير التضخم المستهدف والناتج المحتمل في السياسة النقدية للعراق == Impact of Inflation And Potential Output In The Monetary Policy In Iraq

Author name: اسراء عبد فرحان

Supervisor name: محمود محمد محمود داغر

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Economy

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تهتم السياسة النقدية اهتماما كبيرا بتحقيق الاستقرار النقدي، من خلال رسم السياسة المؤثرة والمسيطرة على كمية النقود، والهادفة الى تحقيق الاستقرار في المستوى العام للاسعار وتحقيق التشغيل عند المستوى المحتمل للناتج وتحقيق النمو الاقتصادي، وصولا الى ادنى فج | Recent years monetary policy more focused on monetary stability goal , through the drawing influencing policy and controlling the quantity of money and aimed at achieving stability in the general level of prices and achievement of operating when the potential level of output and economic growth, reach the lowest output gap as well as with cross - target cash economy minimization of inflation gap.This study deals with the relationship between inflation and economic growth and estimating product gap of the Iraqi economy duration (1990 - 2014).Iraq's economy is suffering from an approximately complete separation between the monetary sector and the real sector, because of the absence of control mechanism after transmission of monetary policy to the real economy through controlling inflation at its target with a nominal anchor of monetary policy.Monetary policy is working in the Iraqi economy in the absence of the actual use of this potential output in the case that has been estimated, as well as attempting to estimate gap (inflation and output) and analysis of their direction and their impact on monetary policy. The researcher attempt to measure the relationship between the two gap and the nominal anchor.For checking which nominal anchor more accurate we used a model of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Estimate ARDL and test the Bound test to test the joint integration and the relationship of long and short - term between the variables under study, as well as induced response to test the relationship between the variables that measure the impact of the trauma suffered by the internal variable in the VAR model on the current and future values of other internal variables in the model function analysis conclusions reached the ineffectiveness of interest rate anchor nominal monetary policy to target inflation and the output of the Iraqi economy during the period of study, as well as the effectiveness of the exchange rate in effect at the gap (inflation and output).

قياس وتحليل دالة الطلب على الواردات الزراعية في العراق للمدة 1980 - 2010 == Measuring And Analyzing The Demand Function For Agricultural Imports In Iraq For The Period 1980 - 2010

Author name: اسراء سليم كاطع الربحاوي

Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Economy

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد الموضوعات المتعلقة بالتجارة الخارجية مجالا واسعا للمناقشات واهتمام الاقتصاديين وذلك لاسهامها الفاعل في عملية التنمية الاقتصادية في اقتصاديات الدول لاسيما النامية منها. ويشكل جانب الواردات من السلع والخدمات في التجارة الخارجية جزءا مهما للاقتصاد المح | Foreign trade captures the interest of economists for its contribution to the process of economic development, especially in developing countries. In addition, imports of goods and services constitute an important section in foreign trade by which a country gets what local economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Hence, the measurement and analysis of the demand function of agricultural imports in Iraq gain special significance due to the reliance of the Iraqi economy on foreign trade to secure many agricultural products.In this work, the demand function for agricultural imports in Iraq has been estimated through the technique of auto - regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the bounds test to measure and analyze the co - integration for long and short - run relationships among the demand for agricultural imports, relative prices, GDP, and foreign reserves. In addition, the relationship between the variables has been tested through the technique of impulse response function (IRF), which measures the impact of a shock on an internal variable on the current and future values of the other internal variables in the VAR model.This thesis includes three chapters, each containing several studies, in addition to a preface, the goal of the study, and a literature review. Chapter 1 introduces an economic framework of the theory of demand in two sections, one about the concept of demand and the factors influencing it and the other on international trade and its relationship to demand in different economic systems. Chapter 2 dicusses the reality and evolution of agricultural foreign trade in Iraq for the period 1980 - 2010. Finally, Chapter 3 introduces the econometric analysis for the demand on agricultural imports and their determinants using the ARDL model and the IRF. The statistical analysis has been performed using EViews 8 and Microfit 5.It has been found that the increase of total and agricultural imports for the interval 1980 - 2010, especially after the year 2003. It has also been found that the average compound annual growth of total and agricultural imports for the same interval is positive with an amount of 5.4% for total imports and 3.6% for agricultural imports. The relative importance of food imports has been found to constitute 99% of total agricultural imports, whereas that for the means of production is very small ranging from 4.4% in 1980 to 0.3% in 2010. On the other hand, short - term elasticity shows an increment of 1% in relative prices causes a decrease in the demand on agricultural imports by 24%. In addition, an increase of 1% in GDP and foreign reserve leads to an increase in the demand on agricultural imports by 19.16%. Furthermore, long - term elasticity that a relative price increment of 1% leads to a reduced demand on agricultural imports by 42%. The IRF shows that a change in relative prices of 1% leads to reducing the demand on agricultural imports by 20% in the second year then it increase to reach 36% in the tenth year, while a change in GDP of 1% leads to an increase in the demand on agricultural imports by 3% in the second year then it decreases to 5% in the tenth year. And, a change of 1% in foreign reserve increases the demand on agricultural import by 9% starting from the third year, reaching up to 17% in the tenth year. Accordingly, it is concluded that the relative prices play an important role in determining the demand on agricultural imports.This study recommends the necessity of setting forth agricultural policies to protect and develop the national product through the support of prices and the means of production, and limiting the impact of agricultural imports on national products in terms of quality and price. Furthermore, it is recommended to activate imports - related trade policies such as customs tariff, for the sake of supporting the national product and increasing the contribution of the agricultural sector in the making of the GDP

قياس وتحليل تاثير صدمات السياسة المالية على بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية في العراق للمدة 1990 - 2014 == Measure And Analyze The Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks On Some Macroeconomic Variables In Iraq For The Period 1990 - 2014

Author name: اسراء سعيد صالح العبيدي

Supervisor name: محمد صالح سلمان الكبيسي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Economy

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تؤثر الصدمات الاقتصادية الخارجية بشكل مباشر على المتغيرات المالية في الدول المصدرة للسلع الاساسية الاولية لاسيما الدول النفطية منها، ويرجع ذلك الى وجود ارتباط قوي بين الموازنة العامة والتجارة الخارجية في هذه الدول، فتستجيب السياسة المالية عبر ادواتها الان | External economic shocks directly affect the financial variables in developing countries, especially those related to oil, due to the existence of a strong correlation between the general budget and foreign trade in these countries, fiscal policy responds through public spending and public revenue is a concurrence or counter to the trend of economic shock, and reflected that response macroeconomic variables relevant in unexpected changes can be expressed in fiscal policy shocks.This study, in your hands I have focused on the measurement and analysis of the impact of shocks, fiscal policy on some macro - economic variables in Iraq, came to focus on this aspect of faith researcher believing absolutely that fiscal policy plays a key role in the national economy, In terms of its ability to allocate resources between economic sectors, or through its Impact on the use of resources, and therefore its impact on aggregate demand levels, moreover, its impact on incomes Through government - provided social grants and expenses which increase in frequency during the exposure to economic shocks, if the affected fiscal policy, both on the side of public expenditures and / or the public revenues to external economic shocks will be reflected in all economic sectors, so the study will try to build a standard model for measuring the impact of Fiscal policy shocks in Some of macroeconomic variables.

مقارنة بين طريقتي SIMEX وLLS لتقدير دالة الانحدار اللامعلمية باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison Between SIMEX & LLS Methods To Estimation Nonparametric Regression Function Using Simulation

Author name: اسراء سعدون علوان

Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي | نذير عباس الشمري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

استخدام توزيعي بيتا والاسي في تقدير معالمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي == Use of Beta & Exponential Distributions To Estimate The Parameters of The Linear Regression Model

Author name: اسامة محمد جاسم القصاب

Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تبقى عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج الانحدار من المواضيع المهمة رغم كثرة ما كتب عنها من خلال البحوث والدراسات وهذه الدراسات تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير سواء كان هذا الاسلوب تقليدي او بيزي او تبعا للتوزيعات التي يتم توظيفها في عملية التق | the process of estimating the parameters of regression model , is still still one of the important subjects despite of the large number of papers and studies written in this subject , these studies are differ in techniques followed in the process of estimation , whether they are classic or baysian , or according to the distributions applied in the estimation , and which are available about some of the parameters of regression model.In this thesis , two different distributions are applied ( Beta , Exponential )in estimating different sample sizes and then making a comparison among the classic estimation techniques represented by (OLS) method , and the method of applying one distribution or two (u.d) , and the baysian methods by providing the distributions themselves.By using the simulation technique , results has been obtained to provide the researcher with the image to clarify the best method in the estimation technique.This thesis come in four chapters : The first chapter contains the introduction and the background of the subject.The second chapter contains the theoretical basis of the estimation methods, when one or two distribution are applied in estimation technique whether is the classic or baysian method, it also contains all that related to derivation process to obtains the estimation style.The third chapter contains , a display of the practical side and also a display of the results of the simulation process used to reach to the best techniques of estimation.Finally, the forth chapter contains the conclusions and recommendation as well as future studies.

تقدير عجز الوحدات السكنية في العراق لعام 2010 == Estimated Deficit of Housing Units In Iraq For 2010

Author name: اسامة عبد العزيز كاظم القريشي

Supervisor name: محمد جاسم محمد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

المعرفة الضمنية وانعكاسها على جودة الخدمة الصحية في دائرة صحة الرصافة == Tacit Knowledge And Its Reflection On Health Service Quality In Alresafa Health Sector

Author name: اسامة عبد الرحيم داود السامرائي

Supervisor name: اياد طاهر محمد الجبوري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Hospital Management

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

الائتمان المصرفي بين تحديات المخاطر وسبل المعالجة : دراسة تحليلية للمصارف التجارية الخاصة في العراق

Author name: ازهار حسن علي ابونايلة

Supervisor name: ثريا عبد الرحيم علي الخزرجي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Economy

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ن المؤكد ان للائمان المصرفي دورا مهما جدا في دعم عملية التنمية الاقتصادية، بعده وسيط مالي بين المدخرين والمستثمرين، ويعد الدور الكبير للائتمان المصرفي في توجيه النشاط الاقتصادي صوب المشاريع الاستثمارية المهمة ذات الاستغلال الامثل للموارد المتوافرة والد | IT is certain that bank credit has an essential part in supporting the economic development process as a financial intermediary between savers and inverters. Beside the essential role of bank credit in directing the economic activity towards the important investment projects that best make use of available resources and supporting the economic development process, therefore, bank credit represents the economic activity mainstay.Banks are liable to financial and bank risks such as; interest rate risks, exchange rate risks, market risks, rubbery and bankruptcy risks, investment risks, national risks, liquidity risks, inflation risks, globalization risks, and merging risks, In addition to, credit risks. Accordingly, suitable means must be found to overcome these risks. Private Commercial banks in Iraq were allowed to practice their work in 1992 in unnatural conditions such as the embargo, high average of inflation, and changing from of government; so, these banks are liable to many financial and risks besides the influence of general conditions, such as the unstable economic and political condition on these banks.The economic problem of research (bank credit risks and credit problems increase and happen together with the unstable economic and political condition).The study came from a theory has significance (the bank credit process as any financial process is liable to many risks and challenges).The study implies three chapters; each chapter contains three fields of researches, conclusions, and recommendation. The first chapter refers to the bank credit impractical framework. The second chapter refers to bank credit risks between Basel committee decision and bank reform. While the third chapter refers to bank credit analytic study and its risks on private commercial banks in Iraq and their quitted for reform.

دور القطاع الخاص في التطور الاقتصادي لمجموعة من الدول النامية مع اشارة خاصة للتجربة العراقية للمدة من 1970 - 2004 : تحليل وقياس == The Role of The Private Sector In Development of Group of Devloping Countries With Special Reference To Iraqi Experience For The Period 1970 - 2004. Measurement And Analysis

Author name: ازاد احمد سعدون الدوسكي

Supervisor name: يحيى غني جاسم النجار

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Economy

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

تقييم دور ثقافة المنظمة ونجاح ادارة المعرفة في تطوير الميزة التنافسية المستدامة : دراسة تطبيقية في شركات الاتصال الخلوي العاملة في العراق == Evaluating Role The Organizational Culture And Knowledge Management Success In Developing Sustainable Competitive Advantage Analytical Study In Mobile Phone Telecommunication Companies In Iraq

Author name: اريج سعيد خليل العاني

Supervisor name: سعد علي حمود عباس العنزي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Business Administration

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تفاعلت ثلاثة متغيرات لتشكيل الاطار الفكري والفلسفي لهذه الدراسة، وهي (ثقافة المنظمة وادارة المعرفة والميزة التنافسية المستدامة)، وقد انطلقت الدراسة من مشكلة معبر عنها بعدد من التساؤلات الفكرية والتطبيقية، استهدف من الاجابة عنها استجلاء الفلسفة النظرية وا | Three Variables interacted to from the ideological and philosophic frame of this study which are (Organizational Culture, Knowledge Management and Sustainable Competitive Advantage), this study started from a problem expressed by of applied and ideological wonderments to answer these question in order to illustrate the philosophy theory and ideological functions of these variables because they are a new subjects at Arabic environment in general and Iraqi environment in special and testing relationship coloration and effect and ability of using it at application environment which formed from a sample from Iraqna and MTC - Atheer Mobile Phone Telecommunication Companies in Iraq, The Sample of study was determined by (72) manager.Important the study in ideological and philosophic origin for study variables depend on application afford for actuality of organizational culture and Knowledge Management in developing sustainable competitive advantage, In order to get this aim six main hypothesis has been formulated, branch all and tested by some non parametric statistical processes, the questionnaires used as a basic elements to collect data and information from the study simple.The study conducted to ideological theory and applied conclusions which determine actual of organizational culture found at application environment, The most outstanding was the integration of organization culture role and knowledge management success in developing the sustainable competitive advantage, but the variable of organization culture role dominates in developing the sustainable competitive advantage, which indicates the importance of recommendations, the most outstanding among them are the companies researched simulation of the international companies and drawing scenarios in meeting future as well as the consolidating of the knowledge existed through the developing of site workshop and putting specified strategies and policies followed by companies to get the learning and the knowledge. And suggestions such as orientation study knowledge workers management of advancing the human resource and knowledge culture simultaneously.

تقدير التكاليف الاقتصادية لتدهور الاراضي الزراعية في العراق عبر محصول الحنطة كسلعة استراتيجية للمدة 2005 - 2012 == Estimation of The Economic Costs of Degradation of Land In Iraq Through The Wheat Crop As A Strategic Commodity For The Period 2005 - 2012

Author name: اريج ابراهيم احمد القره غولي

Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Environmental Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تاثر القطاع الزراعي في العراق بالتغيرات السياسية والاقتصادية والتشريعية التي شهدها العراق على مايقارب عقدا من الزمان والذي انعكس سلبا على فعالية مساهمته من الناتج المحلي الاجمالي وبالتالي على الاقتصاد, اذ يشير التقرير الاقتصادي السنوي لعام 2012 للبنك ال | The agricultural sector in Iraq has been affected by the political, economic and legislative changes that witnessed it Iraq at last decade which reflected negatively on the effectiveness of its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and then on the economy. The annual economic report of the Central Bank of Iraq indicates that the agricultural sector constitutes about 4.1% of GDP for 2012. However, the agricultural sector faces multiple problems that add negative impact on the agriculture development trends in Iraq. The Global warming which is the most prominent problem and shortage of rain have caused desertification phenomenon. The decrease of levels of Tigris and Euphrates rivers, due to many reasons, as well as the decrease of the quantities of the underground water and incompetent use of resources by farmers have increased the soil saline, degraded it and decreased land fertility. All these factors have led to decrease of the arable lands and fast growing number of population added more pressure on the land to increase productivity to meet people’s growing needs which, at the end, caused degradation of the arable lands. Therefore, it is important to discuss these problems and find out the root causes of the decrease of the arable lands and devise proper solutions. This study has been developed to assess the change of wheat production between 2005 and 2012, through analyzing the relation between production quantities and the cultivated lands as well as the quantities of water that have been provided. Further, the impact of supplied water and used lands were measured through line graphs in this study. The increase and decrease of arable lands and the lands that can be used for agriculture in comparison to the size of the whole land explain clearly the benefit of agricultural activities.Land degradation leads to damage of environmental elements including water, air, and soil. The relation between environment and economy is strong and reciprocal and form the basis of the sustainable work of each one where economy protects environment and nature elements through typical distribution of resources provided by environment to boost economy. Further, through economic activities funding is being allocated to fix degradation and damage. Protecting environment will protect economy as well and achieves its mission to meet people’s unlimited needs and increase development rates which boosts people’s welfare in each community. The aforementioned relation has encouraged people concerned with environmental economy to look for cash indicator called Cost of Environmental Degradation (COED) which recognized as an important indicator for decision makers to identify the loss of economy in cash that has been caused by environmental degradation and lack of environment protection. The economic costs of agricultural land degradation for the period (2005 - 2012), where estimated a lowest costs in 2010 about (3,437,884,583) IQD and a highest costs in 2012 which amounted to (589,579,870,614) IQD. Conclude from that the cost of the alternative opportunity for these costs has been exceeded on the rights of subsequent generations in natural resources as well as environmental assets so it recommend to do a strategy to promote the agricultural sector through diagnosis its main problems. The desertification, the poor management of water resources, and the financial and technological weakness represent the almost important of these problems must be diagnosed, as well as setting a time limit to treatment these problems which cause a heavy losses in cultivated arena and production, in additional to monitoring a large sums of money to reduce or treat the deterioration in order to increase agricultural development, which is reflected positively on the economy of the country.

مقارنة مقدرات بيز القياسية لمعلمة توزيع باريتو باستعمال دوال خسارة مختلفة == A Comparison of Standard Bayes Estimators For Parameter of Paretodistribution Using Different Loss Function

Author name: اخلاص علي حمودي الحديثي

Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

تطبيقات (ISO 9001,CMM,TQM) لقياس جودة الاداء الكلي : دراسة حالة في الشركة العامة للصناعات الجلدية == The Applications of (ISO 9001,CMM,TQM) In Measuring Total Performance Quality Case Study At The General Company For Leather Industries

Author name: اخلاص زكي فرج الجبوري

Supervisor name: صباح مجيد سعيد النجار

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Business Administration

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تتمحور مشكلة البحث بوجود فجوة بين نماذج الجودة ( ISO 9001,CMM, TQM) والبيئة الداخلية للمنظمة وقدراتها ومواردها. ان معظم نماذج الجودة تفترض بانها تقدم افضل الحلول لمشاكل الجودة وهذا ما لم يتم اثباته بشكل قاطع. فضلا عن ذلك فان البحوث الاكاديمية التي اجريت ف | The problem of this research represents in the gap existent among quality models (ISO 9001, TQM, CMM) and the internal and external environment of an organization, it’s abilities and resources, Most quality models assume that they provide the best solution to the quality problems but that wasn’t proved absolutely. In addition, the academic research work conducted in Iraq, since the 1990’s, has only measured the gap between the requirements of ISO 9001 and the current quality system at the researched organizations and has urged the organizations to bridge the gap to achieve the ISO certificate.It is noticeable that all the researches written about quality management systems and environment in Iraq have recommended the ISO as the best alternative in solving quality problems; but at same time the company environment, internal resources, self - ability have been forgotten in these researches. Moreover these researches haven’t mention the test for ability of quality models integration in achieving the organization objectives representing in quality problems solving and improving its total performance.So, this study handled the effect of the integration among (ISO 9001, TQM, CMM) in improving the total performance quality; evaluating the reality of quality in General Company for Leather Industries (GCLI) (research sample) and determining the quality model that corresponds with the sample environment, resources, and needs.The research is trying to achieve a number of aims ,and it is depending on hypothesis, while the required data and information are gathered from the company registers, structural interviews are made by using checklists, personal observation, and reviewing documents to analyze and evaluate quality system. In addition to that the researcher has made a field living to complete some aspects which lack documented data in the company registers to check the correctness answers in the checklists. These lists have shown a fluctuation in the company performance quality and weaknesses in its performance, also the studied effected factors haven’t get high evaluation and this denote that the company is suffering from problems.Questionnaire is used in gathering data and information related to integration in research sample, and many statistical methods are used in handling data which are multiple and simple regression, and path analysis. These methods have come out with many results, the most important of them have shown that total - effect of integration among (ISO 9001, TQM, CMM) in total performance quality is more than the effect of each model alone, it is also shown that the use of ISO 9001 alone is not sufficient for improving the company total performance quality.In discussing the results, the study assured the importance of integration among the models in achieving quality requirements and has recommends the necessity of depending on integration elements in improving the total performance quality of company.

تحديد خطط الانتاج الكفوءة لشركة الشهيد العامة في ظل ظروف المخاطرة واللايقين == Determination of Efficient Production'S Plans For Al - Shaheed Public Company Under Risk And Uncertainty

Author name: احمد وهيب حسين محمد

Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Economy

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: Conventional linear programming models are usually used in determination of optimum production which either maximizing gross margins or minimizing to total costs under definite constraints. The main deficit in such models is their neglecting risk which exit in production process. Hazell at (1971) succeeded to improve the conventional linear programming to linear models take in consideration risk and uncertainty. The new models are based on the assumption, that decision mater could choose between optimum plans on the basis of expected income (E) from each plan and the absolute total deviation (A) ; thus this invented model which includes the above mentioned variables as a measure for risk in any plan is called MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation). By using this model minimum total absolute deviation is obtained , which means that an efficient plan is fulfilled with gross margin (E) and minimum total absolute deviation (A). A linear alternative mathematical programming model introduced by Loren W. tauer at (1981) computationally efficient and generates solutions meeting the second - degree stochastic dominance (SSD) test. MOTAD does not do this. The model is a modification of MOTAD called Target MOTAD. It's two attribute risk and return model. Which generates a subset of feasible SSD ( second degree stochastic dominance) solutions where stochastic dominance techniques are appealing theoretically because they require only function properties ,rather specific forms be specified. The thesis aims to derive the efficient industrial plans for Al - shaheed general company under risk by using MOTAD and target MOTAD as a linear alternatives models for the quadratic programming models. The results showed that there had been a sort of (trade - off) between risk and the expected gross margins. And if the studied company strives to get high gross margin , it should tolerate risk and vice versa. Beside that , target MOTAD appears to be more plausible approach for examining risk - return trade - offs , and in addition it's more consistent with recent economical literature. Finally the contents of this research divided into six chapters : - The first dealt with the foundmental concepts , previous studies and theoretical sides related to the subject of the research. The second chapter involved models that expressed about risk and deal with. The third chapter contains risk efficiency criterions and stochastic dominance analysis. The fourth chapter involved a technical , financial analysis and building the primary model of linear programming for the target company. The fifth chapter an empirical study on data of Al - shaheed company by using MOTAD and target MOTAD. Then conclusions and recommendations had been showed in the sixth chapter. The essential of them were mentioned above. So the management of Al - Shaheed Company to be invited to apply the suitable procedures in the production process , in order to get efficient plans that improves it's performance.

تحليل احصائي لواقع العمالة وتياراتها واتجاهاتها في محافظات مختارة من العراق == A Statistical Analysis of The Realy of Emeeployment And Trends In Selected Provinces of Lraq

Author name: احمد هادي عبد العزيز الذهب

Supervisor name: سعد احمد عبد الرحمن النعیمي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

تحليل احصائي لمؤشرات الثروة الحيوانية في العراق للسنوات 2001 - 2008 == A Statistical Analysis of Indicators For Livestock In The Country For The Years 2001 - 2008

Author name: احمد كاظم حسن العصامي

Supervisor name: مهدي محمد البياع

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعيش الانسان بالاعتماد على الغذاء الذي وفر له من مختلف القنوات النباتية والحيوانية والمصنعة التي تساعده على انجاز متطلبات حياته وبذلك يعد الغذاء ثروة استراتيجية تقوم عليها البشرية ويتحقق من خلالها الامان والاستقرار. شهد في التاريخ القديم والحديث ا | Human lives, depending on the food provided to him from the various channels of plant, animal and manufactured to help him to accomplish the requirements of his life and so is the food wealth strategy underlying the human and through which security and stability. Seen in ancient and modern history many wars in which the main objective was to maintain food sources and increasing wealth in it. And the nation that meet the food security situation of up to a state of political and economic stability, financial and social well - being by increasing and reducing tensions. The food of animal forms and outputs (meat, milk and eggs... etc) of the most important sources of food and the highest in peace for the content of food materials according to the task of the human body. It is here specifically highlights the importance of livestock to the peoples and nations and try to increase it for the reasons contained in the above. And will take care of this thesis to study the reality of livestock in the country based on census data, which included indicators of animal production and conducted in a number of years where the trend in bringing about development in livestock production necessarily requires the provision of many of the requirements necessary to achieve this development The prediction of the most important influences statistical help his resolution to take the right decision and here the researcher using the regression models written multiple (Multiple Linear Regression) to identify the most important factors that help to increase the livestock in the country have also been using a number of important indicators in reading the reality of wealth animal with a growing population

طرائق تقدير دالة المخاطرة لتوزيع Quasi Lindely : بحث مقارن مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Methods For Estimation of Hazard Function of Distribution Quasi Lindley With Application

Author name: احمد علوان صالح

Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان البحوث المتعلقة بامراض الاطفال ومنها امراض الدم تكتسب اهمية بالغة لما تسببه هذه الامراض من زيادة في نسب الوفيات بين الاطفال مما يؤثر سلبا في نمو المجتمعات لان هذه الامراض تستهدف قاعدتها الاساسية والمتمثلة بالطفولة. من المعلوم ان التوزيعات الاحتمالية | The researches on the diseases, including children and the blood diseases is of paramount importance to what caused these diseases from an increase in mortality rates among children, which negatively affects the growth of the communities, because these diseases targeted base of basic and childhood.It is known that the probability distributions is the statistical tool that deal with times of life for patients with diseases that cause of death, and that the issue of determining the statistical distribution of the most flexible in the good compatibility with the data on life times of of people affect the accuracy of the results and specifically estimates for both parameters or a Hazard function , which provides hospital and its staff of doctors, nurses, research centers , important evidence in the medical analysis of these diseases in order to develop methods of treatment and related drugs and medical devices to other medical supplies.In this research was study the of blood leukemia disease problem in the children what caused the disease in the increase in the number of deaths for children with this disease.In this research , review the distribution of properties (Quasi Lindely - QL - ) for the proper matching the practical side data and estimate a risk function using five methods to estimate Maximum Likelihood Method , method of moments, method of L - moment Method of Percentiles Estimators and Standard Bayes Method using Squared Error Loss Function and Logarithmic Loss Function and joint prior distribution noninformative prior using (Jeffrey's formula) also used the method of Lindley Approximation to solving integrals resulting from the use Bayes way to estimate the Hazard function for this distribution.In order to find the best methods of judgment for the purpose of use in the practical side in this research were employed style simulation way (Monte Carlo) and using the Mean squared error (MSE) and the Integral. Mean square Error (IMSE) in order to compare the efficiency of the estimators to function risk was reached through implementation of simulation experiments that Bayes estimator to a Hazard function of distribution (QL) using a logarithmic function loss is the most efficient for small and medium volumes of samples while Maximum Likelihood Method and Method of Percentiles Estimators are better for large samples and at the same efficiency.Finally, in the practical side was used a sample size of data (n = 42) of the children of the deceased because of the disease leukemia blood have been employed estimator Bayes using to estimate the Hazard function loss logarithmic function to these patients. The results showed that the Hazard function of death among children in Iraq function values because of this disease are higher values than necessary health institution looks at this phenomenon and develop sophisticated prevention and treatment and to provide various medical supplies to minimize the seriousness of this disease, which leads to the depletion of human and financial resources, which negatively affects the process of progress of society as well as scientific methods should health institutions raise community awareness of the reasons this the disease for the purpose of avoiding these reasons and by employing various media, particularly newsletters that you know the reasons of the disease and treatment modalities.

الضرورة والركائز الاساسية للانتقال من الاسلوب المخطط الى الاسلوب التلقائي للنمو : العراق حالة دراسية

Author name: احمد عبد الله سلمان الوائلي

Supervisor name: ميسر قاسم محمد غزال

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Economy

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

استخدام نماذج القياس الاقتصادي في نظرية الالعاب لتحديد سياسات تعظيم الارباح لشركتي بيبسي كولا وكوكا كولا في محافظة بغداد == Use of Models of Econometrics In Game Theory In Determining The Policies To Maximize Profits For The Pepsi Cola And Coca - Cola In The Province of Baghdad

Author name: احمد عبد العزيز سوادي

Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: نظرا لاهمية نظرية الالعاب وخاصة نظريات احتكار القلة في دراسة واقع التنافس بين الشركات او الحكومات وغيرها، قام الباحث بربط القياس الاقتصادي بهذه النظريات لتشمل كافة السياسات المتعددة المستعملة من تلك الشركات بعد ان كانت تعتمد على الكمية والسعر فقط وتم تطب | Due to the importance of the theory of games especially theories of oligopoly in the study of the reality of competition aming companies or governments and others the researcher linked theories of oligopoly to Econometrics to include all the policies used by companies after these theories were based on price and quantity only the researcher applied these theories to data taken from Pepsi Cola and Coca - Cola In Baghdad Steps of the solution where stated for the models proposed and solutions where found to be balance points is for the two companies according to the principle of Nash.The theory of Cournot is based on the assumption that the total amount sold is fixed and is shared among the parties of monopoly (Companies). Aggregate supply is supposed to be determined and the price is set and supply meets demand. It also assumes that the relationship between price and quantity is linear : Quantity is inversely proportional to the price. the researcher has developed a proposed model for the expansion of the model to include all the policies used by oligopoly companies such as advertising and others.The model of von Staklberg is applied when there is a market leader and the rest of the companies are subsidiaries It takes the same relationship between price and quantity in the theory of Cournot that is the second company determines. the quantity that it wants to produce which will be restricted to the first company. This will be the first company the leader, and the second company to be its subsidiary. The researcher also to included all the policies used by oligopoly companies after linking the model to theories of econometrics.The Bertrand model depends mainly on determining the prices not quantities, as in the models of Cournot and von Staklberg. It is supposed that the price of competing companies in some way affects the price of a single company. The researcher also included all the policies used by oligopoly companies after the model was based on the price, quantity and sale price of the competing company only by linking the model to theories of econometrics

تاثير توقيت الافصاح المحاسبي للشركات العراقية في الاتجار الداخلي بالمعلومات المحاسبية - الية مقترحة == The Impact of The Timing Accounting Disclosure For Iraqi Companies In The Insider Trading of Accounting Information - Proposed Mechanism

Author name: احمد طاهر كاظم العنبكي

Supervisor name: ضياء عبد الحسين القاموسي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Accounting

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يهدف هذا البحث الى بيان تاثير توقيت الافصاح المحاسبي المقدم من الشركات المحلية ولاسيما الشركات المساهمة المدرجة في سوق العراق للاوراق المالية في ظهور وتنامي انشطة الاتجار الداخلي بالمعلومات المحاسبية وبما ينعكس سلبا على نزاهة الاسواق المالية وكفاءتها. فض | This research aims to release the impact of the timeliness of accounting disclosure provided by local companies, especially shareholding companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange in appearance and growing insider trading activities of accounting information which are reflected negatively on the integrity and efficiency of financial markets As well as discuss deficiencies in laws and regulations related to disclosure of accounting and insider trading of accounting information And the rules of professional conduct that influenced the growth of insider trading of accounting information activities. The research was based on two major assumptions It represented the existence of several areas of deficiencies in laws and regulations governing the work of shareholding companies in Iraq as well as the rules of professional conduct that guide the professional conduct, particularly accountants them, especially those linked to the activities of insider trading of accounting information, as well as there is a significant correlation between the timing of the disclosure accounting submitted by the companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange to stakeholders, particularly investors, companies and between insider trading of accounting information activities. The present research suggests the following mechanism to avoid the phenomenon of insider trading of accounting information : (developing of the local laws and regulations related to disclosure of accounting, and improve the local laws and regulations on the insider trading , and update and activate the rules of conduct for professionals, especially accountants and auditors of them The research has come to a set of conclusions represented the most important of the growing importance of accounting disclosure submitted by the companies in a timely manner because it is the main source for users to provide them with information, as well as it sometimes may be sacrificing reliability appropriate timing to produce information quickly and present them to users in general and investors in particular , The insider trading activities of the accounting information to a constraint key to the efficiency and integrity of financial markets, as it works to undermine investor confidence in addition, it is one of the behaviors unethical because achieving insiders investors on unusual profits or avoid losses on other investors who are not familiar account. There are weaknesses in attention of local laws and regulations on the treatments insider trading accounting information compared to other developed countries , As well as the existence of an insider trading activities of accounting information in the Iraq Stock Exchange. These conclusions paved the way for group of recommendations : represented the most important improvement of accounting disclosure provided by local companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange in terms of content and timeliness of disclosure Through the development of local laws and regulations to the regulatory authorities of the desire to achieve a level of disclosure which is appropriate and adequate and fair submit to all users, The possibility of adopting international accounting standards (IFRS / IAS) to meet the information needs of users in general and investors in particular, as well as the benefits that could be achieved and that is the most important in the reduction of insider trading activities of accounting information in the case of the adoption of these standards, the development of local laws and regulations on the to address the phenomenon of internal trafficking of accounting information, so as to enhance investor confidence in the Iraq Stock Exchange and so by taking advantage of the experience of other developed countries in the formulation of the anti - insider trading laws

نجاح منظمات الاعمال على وفق التوجه الريادي لتكنولوجيا المعلومات بحث ميداني لعينة من المصارف العراقية الخاصة == The Success of Business Organizations According To The Entrepreneurial Orientation For Information Technology An Field Research At Iraqi Private Banks

Author name: احمد ضياء الدين صلاح الدين الطائي

Supervisor name: صلاح الدين عواد كريم الكبيسي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Business Administration

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يهدف الباحث من خلال هذا البحث الى تشخيص وتفسير طبيعة علاقات الارتباط والتاثير بين التوجه الريادي لتكنولوجيا المعلومات ونجاح المصارف العراقية الخاصة مجتمع البحث وعلى مستوى الابعاد، ولقد اختبر هذا البحث في القطاع المصرفي الخاص ممثلا ب(10) مصارف عراقية خاصة | bjective researcher through this research to diagnosis and interpretation of the nature of the correlations and effect between the Entrepreneurial orientation for information technology and the success of the Iraqi private banks, the research community and the level dimensions, and I've tested this research in the private banking sector represented by (10), especially in Baghdad, Iraqi banks, and applied research on sample consisting of 80 distributors in several administrative levels Director (Director, Director of the department, branch manager), and use the search questionnaire Head to collect data and information tool, as well as personal interviews Program and some private banks annual reports, has sought research to test a number of hypotheses main and branch on the relationships of the link and relationships influence between research variables, and to answer all questions related to the problem of search, in particular questioning the basic (Is that the direction of the Iraqi private banks, the research community Entrepreneurial orientation in information technology will be led to strengthen further the chances of success?), has reached search to a group of conclusions was most important that the Iraqi private banks go approach leading information technology and this trend reverberate back to the attention of these banks (innovation technology and offensive competitive technology and proactive technology and Risk - takin technology and Autonomy technology), as well as the existence of interdependence and integration of the dimensions of Entrepreneurial orientation for information technology and the success of the business organizations reflected role larger style collective than if used individually to achieve successes organizational in its banking system, as these banks were able to use changes in the dimensions of orientation pioneering changes to the information technology together in bringing about more changes in the greater your chances of success with more than used to influence a solo. Based on the findings of the research results of a set of recommendations was the most important of which has developed the need to recruit Iraqi private banks departments Entrepreneurial orientation for information technology in creating more chances of success, and the necessity of the Iraqi private banks to take advantage of good interest in the success Organizational and strengthen that interest through work to develop her creative work as well as other proactive in reaching the technological opportunities presented as well as the practice of decentralization in taking crucial decisions and also accept high risk to increase revenues and follow policies that increase competitive successes

استعمال انموذج تجميعي عام لمعلمات الشكل والموقع والقياس في بناء منحنى نمو معياري للاطفال في العراق == Using Generalized Additive Models For Location Scale And Shape To Construct Standardized Growth Curve For Iraq Children

Author name: احمد شهاب احمد

Supervisor name: خلود يوسف خمو

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد منحنيات النمو المعيارية اداة مهمة في تقييم سلوك النمو البشري خاصة في السنوات المبكرة من عمر الطفل، ويجب ان تبنى بشكل يلبي الهدف منها، وهو تحديد الكيفية التي يجب ان ينمو بها الطفل اذ ان اي انحراف للقياسات البشرية للطفل عن مسار منحنيات النمو نحو الادنى | The growth curves standard is an important tool in the evaluation of the behavior of human growth, especially in the early years of the child's age, and must built to meet the goal of which, Determine how the child must should grow, because any deviation of anthropometric for the child from the path of growth curves towards the minimum or Top necessitates a review of health centers interested in child care because of this change in the behavior of growth is an indication of the possibility of a health problem for the child have a far - reaching impact on his life, and also that the it reflect the level of the general welfare of the community posed as a result of human needs nutrition, health and development of this society, and all the developed countries of the world has its own growth curves commensurate with the ethnic diversity and its population, and Iraq , similar to these countries need independent growth curves achieve their desired purpose and it puts a step in the path of these countries. This was the goal of research is building growth curves standard for the children of Iraq under sixth to indicator of weight, height and body mass index against age to each sex in order to take advantage of child - care institutions and adopt them to assess the growth path of the child right in the most important stages of the growth of an early childhood. The growth curves consists of percentiles line called (Centiles) reflect different levels of growth represent the behavior of a specific and accurate so they need to statistical methods and data in order to achieve this requirement , so it was chosen as a model statistical claims GAMLSS from a wide range of statistical methods characterized by the allowed a wide group of distributions treated skew and kurtosis of growth data, in addition to the flexible methods of smoothing Treat the unstationary in the data, it based on building a model special for each standard growth using criteria to choose as the first step by choosing the appropriate distribution of the data to impose the parameters represent a nonparametric smooth functions of independent variable often takes age, the second step is to choose the appropriate degree of smoothing to this functions.That the building of growth curves based on a sample taken from MICS4 from the survey of children under the age of six who are subject matter and carried out by the Central Statistics organization in 2011, and after processing the data removed cases of children who were exposed to health conditions or nutritional possible affect the potential genetic growth Physiological and thus give wrong

اعادة تصميم الوظائف في شعبة خدمات نقل الدم لدائرة صحة بغداد الرصافة : دراسة حالة

Author name: احمد شاكر محمود

Supervisor name: ناظم جواد عبد سلمان الزيدي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Hospital Management

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

المقارنة بين بعض طرائق تقدير انموذج انحدار اللوجستك والطرائـق الحصـينـة للتجارب الحياتية ذات الاستجابة الثنائية باستخدام اسلوب المحاكاة == Al - Comparison Between Some Estimated Methods of Logistic Regression Models And Robust Methods For The Bioassays of The Quantal Response By Using Simulation Procedure

Author name: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي

Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: الحمد لله والصلاة والسلام على رسول الله سيدنا محمد (صلى الله عليه وسلم) وعلى اله وصحبه وسلم اما بعد... تناول البحث استخدام انموذج انحدار اللوجستك في التجارب الحياتية باعتباره موضوعا على قدر من الاهمية , وان هناك شروط يجب ان تتوفر لغرض اجراء التحليل بال | This study deals with using the logistic regression model in the bioassay which is considered an important topic and there must be assumption which should be satisfied in order to carry out analysis in the classical methods ( Weighted least squares method and Maximum likelihood method ) as success normal distribution assumption for errors , when one assumption of normal distribution is fail or outlier in data this lead to taking the fail decision concerning the problem needed so be studied.Here lies the importance of applying robust methods (M method and R method ) in the bioassay of the quantal response because the Robust estimated has little response and little effects of outlier.To state the contents of this thesis it was divided into four chapters. The first chapter included the introduction and the aim of this research work. The second chapter included the theoretical part where we stated the estimated methods for the logistic regression model and the Robust methods. The third chapter went through the practical part of this research work. Finally Chapter four went through the conclusions and recommendations of this research work. As well as the future studies, which have been proposed regarding this research. of the most important results the study reached is the efficient M method and R1 method for two robust in estimator the parameters dose model of the quantal response

اثر الاستثمار على النمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (1970 - 2010) : دراسة تطبيقية باستخدام طريقة OLS وSURE والمقارنة بينهما == The Impact of Investment On Economic Growth In Iraq For The Period (1970 - 2010) Empirical Study Using The Method of OLS And SURE And The Comparison Between Them

Author name: احمد جمال احمد

Supervisor name: فراس احمد محمد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يهدف البحث الى بناء انموذج اثر الاستثمار على النمو الاقتصادي في العراق من خلال استعمال طريقتي (OLS) الكلاسيكية وطريقة (SURE) لمعالجة مشكلة معادلات الانحدار غير المرتبطة ظاهريا بين الاخطاء والمقارنة بينهما.اذ تناول البحث في الفصل الاول المقدمة واهمية البح | The research aims to build a model of the impact of investment on economic growth in Iraq through the use of my way (OLS) and the classic way (SURE) to address the problem of regression equations between seemingly unrelated errors and the comparison between them.The discussion dealt with in the first chapter provided and the importance of research, and the aim of the research problem as well and then review the reference.RPR while the second chapter (theory) the relationship between investment and economic growth in economic theory, addressing the basic concepts and comprehensive definition of investment as well as the areas of investment and investment tools and then touched on the concept of economic growth and theories in economic growth.The third chapter (the theoretical economic) descriptive eat indicators of economic growth in Iraq and then touched on the spending of public investment (government) and then the investment budget and the efficiency of the implementation for the period (1990 - 2006) by virtue of the available data, as well as indicators of economic growth and we dealt with indicators study a GDP and gross capital formation has been divided into the length of time in order to decomposition economically and give a clearer picture of economic growth in Iraq's first period (1970 - 1990) and the second for the period (1990 - 2000) and the third for the period (2000 - 2010), then moved to the statistical methods Used in Chapter IV (the theoretical statistical) as we dealt with the topics following simple introduction about the time series, and we talked about the autocorrelation of the first class and scheduling data double all three, and the system of regression equations is associated with the ostensibly ", and the method of regression is associated with the surface (SURE), and measures of comparison, a competency , and the average absolute percentage error.The fifth chapter (the practical side) has dealt with an explanation of the analysis statistically for handling missing data and the method used in the analysis and assessment of the data by programs, statistical analysis (MATHLAB & SPSS) and interpret the results of the analysis as well as test the moral models both separately, then the conclusions and recommendations and finally "sources, tables and appendices.