قياس وتحليل دالة الطلب على الواردات الزراعية في العراق للمدة 1980 - 2010 == Measuring And Analyzing The Demand Function For Agricultural Imports In Iraq For The Period 1980 - 2010
Author name:
اسراء سليم كاطع الربحاوي
Supervisor name:
سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3405 - p.pdf
Abstract:
تعد الموضوعات المتعلقة بالتجارة الخارجية مجالا واسعا للمناقشات واهتمام الاقتصاديين وذلك لاسهامها الفاعل في عملية التنمية الاقتصادية في اقتصاديات الدول لاسيما النامية منها. ويشكل جانب الواردات من السلع والخدمات في التجارة الخارجية جزءا مهما للاقتصاد المح | Foreign trade captures the interest of economists for its contribution to the process of economic development, especially in developing countries. In addition, imports of goods and services constitute an important section in foreign trade by which a country gets what local economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Hence, the measurement and analysis of the demand function of agricultural imports in Iraq gain special significance due to the reliance of the Iraqi economy on foreign trade to secure many agricultural products.In this work, the demand function for agricultural imports in Iraq has been estimated through the technique of auto - regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the bounds test to measure and analyze the co - integration for long and short - run relationships among the demand for agricultural imports, relative prices, GDP, and foreign reserves. In addition, the relationship between the variables has been tested through the technique of impulse response function (IRF), which measures the impact of a shock on an internal variable on the current and future values of the other internal variables in the VAR model.This thesis includes three chapters, each containing several studies, in addition to a preface, the goal of the study, and a literature review. Chapter 1 introduces an economic framework of the theory of demand in two sections, one about the concept of demand and the factors influencing it and the other on international trade and its relationship to demand in different economic systems. Chapter 2 dicusses the reality and evolution of agricultural foreign trade in Iraq for the period 1980 - 2010. Finally, Chapter 3 introduces the econometric analysis for the demand on agricultural imports and their determinants using the ARDL model and the IRF. The statistical analysis has been performed using EViews 8 and Microfit 5.It has been found that the increase of total and agricultural imports for the interval 1980 - 2010, especially after the year 2003. It has also been found that the average compound annual growth of total and agricultural imports for the same interval is positive with an amount of 5.4% for total imports and 3.6% for agricultural imports. The relative importance of food imports has been found to constitute 99% of total agricultural imports, whereas that for the means of production is very small ranging from 4.4% in 1980 to 0.3% in 2010. On the other hand, short - term elasticity shows an increment of 1% in relative prices causes a decrease in the demand on agricultural imports by 24%. In addition, an increase of 1% in GDP and foreign reserve leads to an increase in the demand on agricultural imports by 19.16%. Furthermore, long - term elasticity that a relative price increment of 1% leads to a reduced demand on agricultural imports by 42%. The IRF shows that a change in relative prices of 1% leads to reducing the demand on agricultural imports by 20% in the second year then it increase to reach 36% in the tenth year, while a change in GDP of 1% leads to an increase in the demand on agricultural imports by 3% in the second year then it decreases to 5% in the tenth year. And, a change of 1% in foreign reserve increases the demand on agricultural import by 9% starting from the third year, reaching up to 17% in the tenth year. Accordingly, it is concluded that the relative prices play an important role in determining the demand on agricultural imports.This study recommends the necessity of setting forth agricultural policies to protect and develop the national product through the support of prices and the means of production, and limiting the impact of agricultural imports on national products in terms of quality and price. Furthermore, it is recommended to activate imports - related trade policies such as customs tariff, for the sake of supporting the national product and increasing the contribution of the agricultural sector in the making of the GDP
