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تاثير التضخم المستهدف والناتج المحتمل في السياسة النقدية للعراق == Impact of Inflation And Potential Output In The Monetary Policy In Iraq
Author name:
اسراء عبد فرحان
Supervisor name:
محمود محمد محمود داغر
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3406 - p.pdf
Abstract:
تهتم السياسة النقدية اهتماما كبيرا بتحقيق الاستقرار النقدي، من خلال رسم السياسة المؤثرة والمسيطرة على كمية النقود، والهادفة الى تحقيق الاستقرار في المستوى العام للاسعار وتحقيق التشغيل عند المستوى المحتمل للناتج وتحقيق النمو الاقتصادي، وصولا الى ادنى فج | Recent years monetary policy more focused on monetary stability goal , through the drawing influencing policy and controlling the quantity of money and aimed at achieving stability in the general level of prices and achievement of operating when the potential level of output and economic growth, reach the lowest output gap as well as with cross - target cash economy minimization of inflation gap.This study deals with the relationship between inflation and economic growth and estimating product gap of the Iraqi economy duration (1990 - 2014).Iraq's economy is suffering from an approximately complete separation between the monetary sector and the real sector, because of the absence of control mechanism after transmission of monetary policy to the real economy through controlling inflation at its target with a nominal anchor of monetary policy.Monetary policy is working in the Iraqi economy in the absence of the actual use of this potential output in the case that has been estimated, as well as attempting to estimate gap (inflation and output) and analysis of their direction and their impact on monetary policy. The researcher attempt to measure the relationship between the two gap and the nominal anchor.For checking which nominal anchor more accurate we used a model of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Estimate ARDL and test the Bound test to test the joint integration and the relationship of long and short - term between the variables under study, as well as induced response to test the relationship between the variables that measure the impact of the trauma suffered by the internal variable in the VAR model on the current and future values of other internal variables in the model function analysis conclusions reached the ineffectiveness of interest rate anchor nominal monetary policy to target inflation and the output of the Iraqi economy during the period of study, as well as the effectiveness of the exchange rate in effect at the gap (inflation and output).
