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تقدير معولية الانظمة باستعمال مقدرات بيز اللامعلمية وشبه المعلمية مع تطبيق عملي == System’s Reliability Using Nonparametric And Semi Parametric Bayesian Estimators With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
اسيل محمود شاكر السهيل
اسم المشرف:
قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2016
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
📎 07T3413 - p.pdf
المستخلص:
تعتبر المعولية اداة لتقييم الاداء الوظيفي لاي منتج خلال فترة حياته وتعتمد على ظروف عمل ووقت وبيئة محددة وهي من المستلزمات الاساسية في العملية الانتاجية، وتنبع الاهمية الكبيرة للمعولية كونها تلائم اغلب التطبيقات العملية والمتمثلة بالمعدات والاجهزة العا | The reliability as tool to estimate the work performance of any product during its life cycle, it depends on restricted conditions of work and the time and environment of work, also it considers as essential requirement in the production, the most significant important of reliability represented of being fit for the most of practical applications such as equipment and invalid devices which can fix and get maintenance in case it stopped of work then return it to work again. These devices and equipment consider as correlation between a group of parts or components to form what it is called “system” , there are any kinds of systems classified according to the way that components are connected such as k - out of - n which is ready to work if at least one of k components is working, and “Series system” which is ready to work if all of its components are working , also there is another kind of system its work just in case one of its components is working and this called “Parallel System”. Therefore , the aim of thesis focuses on estimating the reliability of systems (k - out of - n, series and parallel system ) by nonparametric and semi parametric methods using Dirichlet process prior and compare it with reliability of system values by classical methods which is represented by Kernel estimator method , Kaplan - meier estimator method and product limit estimator method to illustrate the quality using statistical indicator Integral Mean Square Error (IMSE) , in additional modified methods. So the simulation procedures to create using different sizes of samples , then applying the best method for Series system on the real data which collected in Al - Mamon factory which belong to general company for plant oil production - Aluminum department the results showed that the reliability function values start decreasing with increasing time in relation to the estimated nonparametric and semi parametric , this means that machines has many invalid because the more invalid in machines cusses to decreasing it reliability
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