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المقدرات الحصينة للارتباط الذاتي في انموذج السلاسل الزمنية الموسمية المختلط المضبب == Robust Autocorrelation Estimation of Fuzzy SARIMA Models

Author name: طاهر ريسان دخيل الخاقاني
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: غالبا ما تصاحب عملية جمع البيانات وجود قيم شاذة التي تؤثر بشكل كبير ليس فقط على عملية تشخيص الانموذج الملائم الذي يعتمد على معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والارتباط الذاتي الجزئي وانما يتعدى ذلك الى عملية تقدير معلمات الانموذج, ومن هنا فان هذا البحث يهدف الى جعل | The presence of outliers in data influences not only in model diagnostic, but exceed to parameters estimation. Therefore, the goal of this thesis is to make the autocorrelation coefficient robust against outliers to estimate parameters that will be robust depending on those coefficients. This goal is achieved by three suggestions the first and second are depending on Fuzzy Logic by suggest estimation procedure to estimate autocorrelation coefficients called Semi - Fuzzy Autocorrelation coefficient, and suggest another one called Semi - Fuzzy Kendall. The third is to extend the robust Percentage Bend Correlation method to use it in estimate the autocorrelation coefficients that will be used in parameter estimation. This thesis contains four chapters. The first chapter discuss general introduction, the previous studies and the purpose of this research. The second chapter views the general fundamentals, the theoretical field that related with outliers and its effectiveness in time series modeling, the using of fuzzy logic in time series and display the proposed procedure and its algorithm. The third chapter contains the empirical filed, the simulation experiment, results analysis and comparing by some criteria. The fourth chapter views the practical filed by study a daily time series of electrical load in Al - Qadisiya city in Iraq then apply the previous methods. The fifth chapter views the most important conclusions and recommendations that we get.

قياس استقرارية دالة الانفاق الاستهلاك العائل في الاقتصاد السعودي للمدة 1970 - 2009 == The Stability Measurement of Function Expenditure For Household Consumption In Saudi Economy For The Period (1970 - 2009)

Author name: طالب هاشم جبار
Supervisor name: مصطفى مهدي حسين
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Total consumption is considered one of the main determinants in the composition of national in come. It represents the largest share of total expenditure in many countries of the world, consumption also play major vole in the economic and its growth it is, also, one of the main components of total demand, which gives it special importance, marking it a lively area for research aiming to reach scientific facts that would help the decision market to realize a vision and to set future planning of economic policies in countries of the world in, eneral and is Saudi Arabian particular. This study aims to estimate a model for household consumption in Saudi Arabia spanning the period from 1970 to 2009, through determining the variables that influence household consumption expenditure according to economic theory. The model was built using partial adjustment method and building a dynamic short term (co - integration) that takes in to account error correction in the time path towards along term equilibrium. And to avoid falling in to imprecise results , a test was conducted for the stability variable entering the model of household consumption the Saudi Arabia, using the adjusted Diekey - Fuller test and Pilliphs Pearn test, A co - integration test was also performed between the variables of the model through estimating the long run equilibrium relationship equation , and performing the second random error test using( ADF) and (PP) tests, Then dynamic short term model was built that was based on error correction (ECM).

قياس وتحليل استجابات السياسة المالية لصدمات معدل التبادل التجاري في دول مختارة للمدة (1990 - 2012) == Measuring And Analyzing The Responses of Fiscal Policy To The Terms of Trade Shocks In Selected Countries For The Period 1990 - 2012

Author name: صفاء علي حسين البكري
Supervisor name: هناء عبد الحسين محيميد الطائي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The Fiscal Policy is considered an important instrument of the Macroeconomic policy , because it provides tools and mechanisms that response to many shocks that face the national economy such as the Terms of Trade Shocks.Since the fiscal policy may take the procycle or countercycle path , that depends on the nature of the country and/or the type of shock.The hypothesis of this study as follows " The response of fiscal policy to the Terms of Trade Shocks leads to take Expansionary or Contractionary fiscal policy According to the shock?s type , which may be negative or positive , and it is effects on the level of economic activity ".This study aims at , firstly , the analyzing of the mechanism of fiscal policy response to the Terms of Trade Shocks in selected countries , and secondly , the measuring the scope of fiscal policy response to Terms of Trade Shocks in these countries , using Time Series for the period (1990 - 2012).The study consist of three chapters , the first one is devoted to the fiscal policy and terms of trade shocks as a theoretical framework. while the second chapter analysis the response of fiscal policy to these shocks (selected countries). the third one contains the measurement of fiscal policy response to the Terms of Trade shocks in these countries for the period (1990 - 2012).The study concluded that the fiscal policy response in Developed Countries (United States and Australia ) was countercyclical , while it was procyclical in Developing Countries , special those Oil - introducing (Ecuador and Iraq).And the researcher recommended that there is insist need to separates the relationship between the terms of trade and oil sector to avoid the terms of trade shocks that could be resulting from oil price fluctuations.

تحليل الفجوة التكنولوجية في بيئة اقتصاد المعرفة : بيئات الاسكوا ESCWA واليورو EURO حالة دراسية == The Technology Gap Analysis In Knowledge Based - Economy (ESCWA & EURO Environments Is A Case Study)

Author name: صالح مهدي صاحي البرهان
Supervisor name: اسعد جواد كاظم الانصاري
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: ان البحث يتمحور حول ابعاد الاقتصاد النوعي عبر تحليل الفجوة التكنولوجية في بيئة اقتصاد المعرفة, بالتركيز على بيئات بلدان منطقتي الاسكوا واليورو كحالة دراسية تطبيقية، مستهدفا محاولة بناء منظور تكنو - اقتصادي جديد يدعم هيكل نظرية الاقتصاد التكنولوجي قيد ال | This research focuses the technology gap analysis in knowledge - based economy. ESCWA and EURO countries are a case study. The main objectives of this research are to build techno - economic perspective, approaching estimation of technological gap, provides paradigm enhancing confidence of decision makers with importance of technological factor for economic development. As well as, this research provides strategic vision is aimed bridging the technology gap between ESCWA and EURO regions during the period of the last twenty years ago. The importance research reflects technological crises factors, development of science and technology indicators is expected to provide policy - makers with abroad information base to assist national development. In addition, building a new perspectives and alternative options. The problem of research is the technology gap as complex and multi - dimension affected package of environmental factors such as economic, technological, political and social. This research based on a particular assumption is the technology gap in knowledge - based economy reflection international technological division of labor between innovated and cited environments, as well as the know - how is the function of education, research and development, innovation, and information and communication technologies. The research depends on meso - approach is including the interaction among deduction and induction logic, micro and macro analysis, positive and normative analysis, in addition benchmarking approach. The structure of research consist of five chapters discuss a conceptual framework, theoretical implications, technology gap perspectives and formatting of technological indicators as well as empirical evidence for estimating the technology gap between ESCWA and EURO countries.This research has conclusion to reflect the theoretical implications and empirical evidence outcomes with related two regions. As well as the research adoption package of recommendations for supporting suggested strategic framework which discuses the role of government, private sector, universities, research centers, civil society institutions and United Nations Agencies.

تحليل تجربة معالجة مشكلة السكن في مدينة بغداد خلال المدة من 1980 - 1994 == Analysis The Experience Treatment of Houses Problem In Baghdad City During 1980 - 1994

Author name: سمير عبد الجبار عبد المجيد
Supervisor name: وليد عبد المنعم عباس الدركزلي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Today more than billion people of the world population are living below poverty line , and billion people now lack adequate shelter and service , and most of them will live in third world cities which are surrounded by bells of cancer areas as a result of poverty , and if the current rapid urbanization process the rapid growth of population and the economic trends continue at the present rate. The united nation reports refers that , around a quarter of the world population will live in sheltering condition with almost no service , then the reports refers that shelter of the urban poor become a great threat to the social and political stability of third world countries and to the world as a whole.In Iraq , at exactly Baghdad society, it suffer succession problem reach for fifty years , it is a shortage of housing stock in the town. This study gives insight into informal this succession problem and the causes of evolutionary by time and how governments appendage in Iraq housing policies since 1958 treat the problem , and this study provides an excellent basis for importance of using light weight concrete is emphasized which one of the alternative for traditional building materials as bricks which has many specifications , saving in cost and labor , and reduction in time of construction , and solve of environment cases , such as an understanding from researcher is well qualified to put them into the necessary economic, political, environmental, and social literature on housing. The research concludes to clear the best implementation housing strategy to provide housing and activate the housing production to solve the housing problem in Baghdad City. The research concludes discuss various strategies to solve housing problem in Baghdad city such as , treatment inner migration and prices support strategies that government do it to solve problem.

اهمية ومتطلبات الاصلاح المصرفي في التنمية مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == The Importance of Requirements of Banking Reform In Development With Special Indication To Iraq

Author name: زياد جواد لفتة الفيصل
Supervisor name: جليل شيعان ضمد البيضاني
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: This study shed a light on the relationship between reformation process and economic development and the consequences that affects the potential affects on economical development process through the main role of banking sector in providing the necessaryfinancial finance for investment operations in its different types whether production or service with special consideration to Iraq where this research titled (The importance of Requirements of Banking Reform in Development with special indication to Iraq)has emerged, so, the research deals with the study of the relationship of banking reforms and its potential affects on the development thorough the factor of Banking finance.The problem of the research represented by the fact that many countries including Iraq did not reach to the stability even to the organizational and framework levels in spite the fact that most of developing countries have early start of banking activitiesparticularly Iraq. The nature of Iraqi economy makes the banking activities can not keep up with the development of political and economical events and unable to meet the needs of economical development that we seek.The hypothesis of the research includes the activation of the role of banking system which depends on banking reforms which should overcome the forms and instruments of conventional works followed by Iraqi banking system, the we can reach the possibilityof promote the banking reality which can serve the economical development in this country in very best way.As for the methodology of the research, the research divided into three chapters, the first one deals with some economical relationships and concepts related to banking reform, and the second chapter deals with the role of some International economical andfinancial institutions in economical and banking reforms, and the third chapter dealt with Iraqi matter as for the economical and banking reforms and their role in transforming the economical developments.The result of the research comp up with the fact that the hypothesis of the research could not be achieved because the all banking reforms did not come up with positive results which can greatly affect the funding transformation and on the country accordingly.

دور السياسة النقدية في جذب الاستثمار الاجنبي المباشر لدول مختارة مع اشارة خاصة الى اقليم كوردستان العراق

Author name: ريسان حاتم كاطع العفلوكي
Supervisor name: ثريا عبد الرحيم علي الخزرجي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: حاولت الدراسة قياس وتحليل اثر مؤشرات السياسة النقدية على الاستثمار الاجنبي المباشر لدول مختارة مع اشارة خاصة الى اقليم كوردستان العراق وقد استخدمت الدراسة اساليب التحليل الوصفي والكمي في البحث لاجل تحديد مدى اثر السياسة النقدية على الاستثمار الاجنبي المبا | AbstractWitness the current international environment major shifts and unprecedented, which is the result of the phenomena of globalization and economic reform as well as the information and communications revolution that has made the world a small village where all barriers have been removed in front the transfer of money, labor, goods and services, capital, and in this framework intensified international competition to attract foreign funds and companies' capital Multinational through the removal of barriers and obstacles that hinder their way and give them incentives and guarantees that facilitate the arrival and entry to the local market in view of the role played by foreign direct investment in the provision of savings (funding) needed to establish productive projects and the transfer of technology and contribute to the improvement of skills, experience and drive economic growth.From here come the great importance of foreign investment in the economy of any state and is seen as a form Lease alternative to the indebtedness of foreign loans and is seeking states promoted and stimulated a climate conducive to creating his all its components, and if the foreign investment flows is endemic by 70% in the major industrialized countries, that what with its attractive in all aspects of the investment climate, and this was the duty of all especially the developing countries than you want to catch up with the evolution and development that is working hard to bring this type of investment to the best of effort and means, to the important role of foreign investments in development projects Economic host countries if these countries are well done and the choice of projects to choose its foreign partners.Monetary policy is one of the investment climate and one of the most important determinants of FDI aspects and is done through indicators included exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, and the question that arises here is what is the way to make monetary policy tools as a catalyst to attract foreign direct investment and this is what we will try to answer it In this study.It is the exchange rate one of the key policy variables in the economic openness while affect macroeconomic variables such as trade, capital flows, foreign direct investment, inflation, global reserves, and GDP as well as financial transfers, while the longer inflation indicator of the stability of the domestic economy in the host countries, Changes in rates of inflation in the domestic or foreign countries expect a change in net returns as well as investment decisions idealism and then is expected to have a negative impact on foreign direct investment, and the interest rate, the rise in the mother country would make it attractive to foreign capital and will cause the rate of the exchange rate rise and this will lead to increasing the supply of foreign currency, on the other hand, if interest rates were high in other countries, investments will leave and it produces diminishing supply of foreign currency rates, which is heading the exchange rate to decline.China, Egypt, was one of the most important countries that have worked to restore economic structure and enact legislation giving attractive incentives to the flow of foreign investments as well as monetary and fiscal economic policies that contribute to achieving this purpose, taking into account the difference between the above - mentioned two countries in terms of the degree of advancement and development and economic growth.With regard to Iraq, and because of the important role of expected foreign direct investment in Iraq, part of this study care diagnosis climate Iraqi investment environment and reality and identify obstacles to actively carry out an investment actor in the Iraqi economy and work hard to create an environment and conditions appropriate Iraqi investment environment that can help to motivate and attract domestic savings or foreign investment through various mechanisms, including monetary policy in Iraq and Kurdistan Iraq Study experience an attractive environment for investment to some extent for foreign direct investment.The study concluded that both exchange rate and inflation play significant, positive and negative role on consecutive in attract foreign capital flows, but the interest rate was non - significant perhaps this is due to the institutions finances and Banking in Iraq generally undeveloped.Also, this study prove that are multifactor (Security, Economy, Political, Managemental and Society) negatively effect on the investment environment in Iraq making it a rejecter environment.Also, the study found that the amount of foreign direct investment is small which is only about, (5.7) billion dollars from (2006 till 2014), as well as, the distribution of investments varied amongst the various sectors or on the levels of the three governorates in Kurdistan province.

متطلبات النهوض بالصناعة التحويلية في ظل التحولات الاقتصادية تجارب دول مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == Advancement Requirements of The Manufacture Industry Under Ecomenical Transitions : Iraq Is A Case Study

Author name: رياض جواد كاظم حمد المعموري
Supervisor name: يحيى غني جاسم النجار
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The conversional industry is the main driven engine for the large number of the developing countries it is the more effective tool for converting economy from low value activities to values generate fast development rate have the ability to provide more prospects for sustainable development, so that the support of the conversional industry sector be the main target for any Comprehensive developmental policy. The most important targets of our study are discovering the deviations imbalances may take place in Iraqi industry sector particularly the public industry sector searching for the level of the industry sector performance figure out the causes of the failures analyzing the future of the conversional industry under the economic transitions and the changes challenges which the surrounding conditions will excrete on it. This study aims to determine the effects economical and social expenses which are caused by the new economic trends which are represented by activating the free market mechanisms on the conversional industry sector as well as determining the general industries features which are best adapted to the economical transitions which are supposed to mitigate the pressure of the free market. Many international local conditions imposed core reforms on the conversional industries to be changed gradually from a economy driven by governmental decisions like governmental manufacturing to economy driven by market mechanism, so that this study tries to highlight the new international and local conditions are forced the economy to be market economy. Our example is the failure of the governmental manufacturing to achieve the economical objective is the sustainable growth.

اثر احلال النقد الاجنبي في فاعلية السياسة النقدية : دراسة لتجارب بلدان نامية مختارة للمدة (1991 - 2006) مصر، العراق == Affect of Foreign Money - Substitution In Effectiveness of The Monetary Policy , Study of Selected Developing Countries For (1991 - 2006) Egypt And Iraq

Author name: رجاء عزيز بندر العقيدي
Supervisor name: ابراهيم موسى الورد | مظهر محمد صالح
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تبنت عدد من البلدان الناميه والاقتصادات الانتقاليه في السنوات الاخيرة العمله الاجنبيه ( مثل الدولار الامريكي او غيره من العملات الاحتياطيه )، واصبحت تلك العملات في بلدان اخرى شبه رسميه او يسمح للعملات الاجنبيه بالتداول جنبا الى جنب العمله المحليه اي الا | Number of the developing and transitional countries have been adopted , in the recent years , the foreign currency to do the function of money in the domistic economy ( such as , us Dollar or other reserve currencies ).These currencies became semi - official unit of exchange in other countries , or it was allowed to such foreign currencies to circulate , side by side , with the local currency , i.e. ,to allowed the local use of foreign currency to make the transactions ( currency substitution).This phenomenon appeared due to unstable economic conditions , including these accompanied with hyper inflation.In the wake of financial liberalization , these economies have opened their financial markets to gain an enormous inflow of foreign capital giving the residents the opportunity to get the foreign assets instead of the local assets for the purpose of risk diversification or what is called ( assets substitution ) for wealth keeping.This phenomenon has posed some challenges against the economic polices , including monetary policy for it bargins on monetary independence.The main objectives of the study are to interpret why some economies use the foreign currency instead of the local currency to make transactions or to store values in the national economy , as well as analysize the full dollarization or part dollarization effect as a monetary system , in which US dollar or any foreign currency replaces the local currency to achieve the monetary policy effectiveness.The hypothesis of our study can be summarized as follows : 1. Dollarization is a result of the financial liberalization , it is a situation of deviation in the monetary equilibrium of macroeconomics , leading to the correlation financial liberalization and the recent trends of monetary policy based on the indirect means.2. Dollarization ,as a feature of the financial liberalization , poses challenges against monetary policy , which exposes it to currency crisis in countries suffering insufficient financial markets and weak local currency.To test this hypothesis and achieve the study's objectives , this study divided into four chapters.Chapter One deals with Dollarlization : The historical and theoretical roots.Chapter Two explains monetary policy effectiveness , and Factors influencing it under the financial liberalization.Chapter Three offers reflections of Dollarlization in monetary policy efficiency. While Chapter Four specialized with analysis and measurement the causal relation between the economic disequilibrium ( imbalance ) indicators and Dollarlization measurement indicator for both Egyptian and Iraqi economy for (1991 - 2006 ).The study ends with some conclusions and recommendations. The most important of conclusions are : 1. The causal relation trend from the economic imbalance indicators to Dollarlization measurement indicator for Egyptian economy , as well as the economic imbalance indicator for Iraqi economy.2. Under an environment of currency subistitution , the policy of making the exchange rate as a tool to fix the inflationary expectations , is efficient in De - Dollarlization , in spite of the cost of this policy in the field of lower Central Bank reserves and / or extra burden on public expenditures.While the most important recommendations are : 1. To reduce Dollarlization and its risks , it is necessary to have dual approach , i.e. , it discourages the use of foreign currency and promotes the attractiveness of local currency as a mean of intermediation.2. Economic stability is an important aim to remove Dollarlization , but it might not be enough to reverse it (De - Dollarlization ). So , it requires other procedures , such as liberalization of local interest rate , establishment of a competitive payments system using local currency , and development of local Financial tools , those are also steps that can help the De - Dollarlization phenomena

الازمة المالية العالمية 2008 وانعكاساتها عالميا وعربيا == The Global Financial Crisis 2008 And Its Reflaxs On Selected Arab Countries (United Arab Emirates - Egypt - Iraq)

Author name: راضي عبيد نغيمش الشمري
Supervisor name: اسعد جواد كاظم الانصاري
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: The study subject one of the most important economic issues, Is the global financial crisis 2008, the crisis marked by all the crises that preceded the crisis was the most influential on the global economy and worked to change the economic thought in most parts of the world.Crisis has hit the mortgage market in the United States of America and spread to the capital markets and has swept the financial sector both inside and outside the United States to the growing economic interdependence due to globalization and moved the crisis to the real sector of the prevailing state of economic recession all over the world and influenced many of the economic variables by the crisis. The study aimed to identify economic and financial aspects that have been affected by the Arab countries according to the correlation of Arab country to the outside world and the nature of the economy of Arab country was the choice of three models of the Arab countries have been selected UAE as a modelfor countries of Persian Gulf that have been affected in the financial aspect largely to its association abroad, was selected Egypt as a model for a country with open economy average The study of the impact on financial and economic sectors in Egypt by the crisis and the third model represents Iraq as a country with the openness of financial non - existent on the outside and the economy unilateral depends on the oil in a large study found not affected by the financial sector in Iraq and are influenced by aspects associated with the oil at the end of the study was designed Arab strategy to avoid crises

مناخ الاستثمار في العراق للمدة 1997 - 2007 == Climate Investment In Iraq For The Period (1997 - 2007)

Author name: خولة رشيج حسن
Supervisor name: نبيل جعفر عبد الرضا المرسومي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Iraq economy has experienced asignificant shifts in the second half of the last century, as a result of shifting in political level, which was highlighted by the revolution of July 17 to 30. Resulted in it has establishment of a political system characterized by centralized, which leading to control of the puplic sector for the whole economic activity in the country. Despite the improvement that occurred during the seventies,due to increase oil revenues after the nationalization , the situation has not invested optimally, beside,breakiugant the Iran - Iraq war. The subsequentes economic blockade, the followers of misguided policies and ill - considered, which caused several disruptions contributed, because of the huge change of times for Iraq economy. During the second half of the nineties previous Government tried hard to make some adjustments.It proceeded to establish the Commission on investment, Ministry of Planning, reflecting the trends and new U.S.investment,especially Arab and foreign investments. But these directions and policies have not been stable, because of the conditions that prevailed at that time.After the fall of the former regime in Iraq in 2003 the successive governments adopte new direction aimed to develop the Iraqi economy by stimulating investment, both domestic and foreign investment ,that had been established through the issused Investment code No.(13)for the year 2006.The process of attracting investment is based primarily on the availability of investment climate characterized by political and economic stability and provide the infrastructure as well as the availability of legal stability and other things contained in thenvironment or investment climate.

قياس وتحليل دالة الطلب على النقود في العراق في الامد الطويل والقصير في اطار التكامل المشترك == Measuring And Analyzing The Demand Function For Money In Iraq For Long - Term And Short - Term Under The Co - Integration Framework

Author name: خليل اسماعيل عزيز
Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الطلب على النقود احد طرفي التوازن النقدي الذي يشكل عرض النقود طرفه الاخر من المتغيرات النقدية الاساسية التي تم التركيز عليها في النظريات النقدية , وتكتسب دراسة وتحليل دالة الطلب على النقود اهمية خاصة سواء في الاقتصاديات المتقدمة ام النامية, وتساهم هذ | The demand for cash as one of the main variables in the cash theory is one of the two sides of money equilibrium which the supply for cash is the other side. The demand for cash model has special importance in the developed and developing countries equally. This dissertation aims to study and estimating the demand for cash and the effecting factors in Iraq for the period from 1990 - 2014. The cash for demand model was estimated by using (ARDL) and bound test to test the Cointegration and the long - run and short - run between the demand for cash in Iraq as a depended variable which is determined by bunch explanatory variables i.e. Gross Domestic Product in fixed prices(GDP), nominal interest rate, inflation rate and Iraqi Dinar rate of Exchange. The relationship among the variables was examined by Impulse Response Function (IRF) through which the internal variable shock impact will be measured in VAR model on the present and future values. The Johansen test results came out to confirm integrated direction relationship of one of the study variables whether using Trace Test or Maximum Eigenvalue test , as the estimated value was found to be greater than the critical value for both the cases at the significant level (p=0.007) for Trace Test and (p=0.018) for Maximum test, which indicates the long - run equilibrium relationship among the study variables and subsequently indicates integrated direction relationship between the real demand for money as a dependent variable and the other explanatory variables. The study is also confirms a short - run equilibrium among the study variables in direction of long - run equilibrium according to the error rectification model and the short - run relationship under ARDL model. The results of the long - run relationship between of the demand for money and its limitations came out to confirm the short - run relationship, and in other side the estimated value of ARDL test according to (SUSUMSQ) and (CUSUM) as it's within the critical area, therefore, the variables are stable for both the short - run and the long - run.

امكانية قيام الوحدة النقدية الخليجية في ضوء تجربة الوحدة النقدية الاوربية

Author name: خالد عبد الحميد عبد المجيد العبدلي
Supervisor name: ايمان عبد خضير الغريباوي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

تحليل وقياس ظاهرة العجز المزدوج في مصر وتونس والمغرب للمدة 1975 - 2000 == Analysis And Measurement The Twin Deficiit Phenomenon Iin Egypt,, Tunisia And Moroco For The Period ((1975 - - 2000))

Author name: حلمي ابراهيم منشد
Supervisor name: عباس جبار الشرع
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: The main aim of this Thesis is to test the twin deficit phenomenon and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco for the period (1975 - 2000). To satisfy the aim, a several number of Econometric tests are follow : 1 - Testing of independent of monetary policy from the Fiscal policy. The results show us that the monetary policy dependent on the Fiscal policy in Egypt, and the budget deficit have an inflationary effect, in contrary to Tunisia and Morocco.2 - Testing the effect of Fiscal variables on private consumption by using Feldstein and Modigliani approachs. The results refer to the negative effect of budget deficit on private consumption in Egypt according to Feldstein approach and which meet to Ricardianequivalence in Egypt, in contrary to, in Tunisia and Morocco.3 - Testing the effects of Fiscal variables on private investment by using stepwise regression model, the results tell us the Crowding - out effect for some Fiscal variables in these countries, and Crowding - in effect for Trade liberalization on private investment in Tunisia and Morocco.4 - Testing of causality relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit, using Augmented Dickey - Fuller (ADF) test, Cointegration test, Engel - Granger approach for error correction model, and Grager causality test, we find that non - Cointegration of time series of variables in Tunisia, and Cointegration of time series of variables in Egypt and Morocco. And satisfying the Ricardian equivalence in Egypt and Tunisia, and satisfying the twin deficit in Morocco according to the bidirectional causality relationship between budget deficit and current account

الاوراق المالية الاسلامية بين النظرية والتطبيق == Islamic Securities Between The Theory And Practice

Author name: حسين علي هاشم اللعيبي
Supervisor name: اسعد جواد كاظم الانصاري
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: ndirect investment with securities in the international bourses is developed upon merging the globalism and the wide range of communication revolution making this world like a little mini village, but handling the securities under the law made by mancontrolling the economic movement according to the capitalism eventually is in contrary with the rules of the Islamic forgiveness legalization advices us to avoid selling through corruption things, those harming the community or prohibited for itself nature and itsnegative effects on its taker as to it is interested with producing and merchandise alcohols, drugs , or pork flush etc. of unethical services or those dealing with usuries which is sale the debts which is a prohibited or aleatory contracts or gambling sales' forms and then Islamic Economical Thought now passing a parturition and coming to a point where the outcome providing types of Islamic tools and securities which may an alternative of the economical law made by the man.This thesis is interested to separate the right one from others this from and showing its correlation with the economical theorem and the scientific concepts serving the economical development , First chapter argues the matters of comparative and distinguishingbetween these two types in regards to the theoretical part arguing the theories of concerned capital interest price related with the securities in the capitalism economical though and then discussing the principles of Islamic economics and the prohibited sales as per the Islamic legalization whole the second chapter argued the economical inclusion of it attempting to find its relation with the theories of production, distribution and handling as well as the methods of filling the saving and financing investments eitherdirectly or indirectly. Third chapter concerned with issuance such these securities in the real world in the states and is different in the financial institutions , banks, investment funds and incorporations , also the economical principles of fiscal , monatory and development policiesbenefiting from such these applications. While fourth chapter is dictated to show modernized methods to produce such these securities called Islamic Financial Engineering followed by the conclusion of the researcher to produce new products in relevantwith developments need and application. Consequently, the researcher concluded the most important results and recommendations in this regards through which it is notice the realization possibility of verification from the target hypothesis or not!.

الفساد الاقتصادي واثاره على عملية التنمية الاقتصادية في البلدان النامية == Economic Corruption And Its Effects On Economic Development Processes of Developing Countries

Author name: حسين جابر عبد الحميد الخاقاني
Supervisor name: يحيى غني جاسم النجار
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: There are many economic issues that concern society at the local level and international level and which constitute a serious challenge to the peoples and governments, perhaps including the issue of corruption in all its forms and manifestations and effects, which now attracts the attention the issue of human society everywhere. It is simply exploiting public office for personal gain, and reflects the exploitation of aberrant behavior in the noble human values of justice and equality. Perhaps the importance of these values stem from the focus of divine religions and the situation on their relationship to human life, all peoples seek to achieve, and failure to achieve increase of injustice and poverty deepens and broadens social differences, and put right is misplaced, whichincreases the weight of life and the high cost of living.The term "corruption" was not known in the literature or the media before the final quarter of last century, but spread wide and its negative made him impose himself strongly in global forums, and that started the last decade of the last century until the issue of corruption became the focus of attention of researchers who studied forms of corruption The concepts and revealed about the bad effects at all levels including the economic level, complicated by the conference, which was established by the organizations and issued the right decisions at the level of global forums like the United Nations and the European Union and others, until now the foremost concern of each government is trying to instil confidence among the governed aspiring to good governance associated with low degree of corruption. Researchers have not agreed to define the concept of corruption or specific definition is due to a disagreement over any type of conduct that should be included or excluded from the concept of corruption, in addition to the different culture from one country to another, as well as laws and social mores that allow certain behaviors are considered corrupt in the eyes of the countries Other.With the rapid globalization and economic openness in the Nineties past, corruption has become the focus of global concern, those years have seen a growing recognition that addressing the phenomenon and discussed by policy makers and academics.Many of the studies discussed the issue of corruption has focused on noneconomic reasons for corruption, which causes social, legal, administrative, and suggested means of reducing corruption through a package of laws and anticorruption legislation and the application systems of good governance, either for reasons of economic corruption have been the lowest share of research and analysis. Despite the importance of non - economic causes of corruption, but the economic causes of great importance established by the facts in the form of slower economic growth and the erosion of available resources and deepening poverty situation, which requires due attention to this aspect.This research focuses on the economic effects of corruption through disclosure of the nature of corruption and clarifies concepts and factors of the spread and the impact on economic variables. Has been to rely on the extrapolation method, with emphasis on theoretical analysis based on the logic of economic theory, method and use descriptive analysis at hand and the mathematical technique and standard models, other times to clarify the relationship between corruption and macro - economic variables and come out of that relationship from the negative effects, using schemes and fees Illustrations and graphs and tables of data available. Using different sources of literature on this subject and issued by international institutions and organizations of the reports and working papers relating to corruption in both Arabic and English, in addition to the adoption of studies and articles for specialist researchers published in professional journals or posted on the websites of international organizations related.

الجوانب الاقتصادية للموازنة المائية في العراق == The Economic Aspects of Water Balance In Iraq

Author name: حسيب عبد الله رويح الشمري
Supervisor name: جليل شيعان ضمد البيضاني
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Water is life and the first article, to which mystery of God in this life and survival ,and existence and construction. As the Water is the most important resource on earth is the guiding force that underpin the efforts of social and economic development.Not only the water problem in Iraq on the lack of revenue but also in the water. extends to water quality decline and turn into water unfit for use, especially after the establishment of water projects in Turkey, Syria and changing river courses for Iran.Hence the importance of water crystallized at the end of the twentieth century at the global, regional and numerous studies of water in spite of their rarity and therefore it is necessary to develop new strategies for the development and management of water in aneconomical and proper in order to avoid scarcity at various levels. Which will be pressure on agricultural production and to weaken the domestic situation of the families of the rural and industrial sectors, not to mention the increased risk to the environment and health problems.And tried to touch on the thesis that the thought of water and the proposals of the international and Bey, which now focuses on the concept of a single incision and left the supply - side water. The thesis focused on the concepts related to water markets andTrading. Where in addition to the concept of virtual water in addition To a set of indicators Various aquatic. Turning to the thesis of equitable and reasonable use on water quotas, which means to remedy the negative effects and work to build bridges of participation and interest based on a solid base of what will lead to economic revitalization and promising work to assess all the results to achieve sustainability in water resources and good management.And water in order to be a way of cooperation, the researcher about that summarizes a set of points, namely : 1 - so they can be that the style of cooperation rather than confrontation and water as a neutral and a key element of cooperation and good neighborliness.2 - The need to do a quick and urgent review of water policy in the country.3 - the need to expand the establishment of small and medium - sized dams with the allocation of agricultural land to them. 4 - The importance of the seizure to the environment and the fear of pollution should be made to.As for water policy should be to put the basic foundations and on the basis of the interaction between water security and food security and environmental security. In order to be a water policy actors in order to raise the efficiency of water use and which results in density crop with targeting the expansion of cultivated areas in order to increase agricultural production and water policies also work the integration of a harmonious between the system of natural and human system so that the concept of integration and sustainability factor in achieving a balance between supply And demand. The researcher within the plan discussed in the following chapters : Chapter I : The situation of water resources in the world.It included three sections each containing the Study of the subdivisions The first topic : addressing the problem of water globally, within the The second topic : the distribution of water resources, the Arab world. Section III : Economic theory and the integrated management of water resources.Chapter II : Water Resources in Iraq..The first topic : the reality of water in Iraq..Section II : Water demand in Iraq..Section III : Water supply in Iraq..Chapter III : The water balance in Iraq..The first topic : water policy and changing the water.Section II : Cases of water balance and ways to address water deficit.Section III : Estimates of water future resources in Iraq.

العلاقة بين مكونات الطلب الكلي وتوزيع الدخل في العراق للمدة (1990 - 2014) == The Relationship Between The Aggregate Demandcomponents And Income Distribution In Iraq For The Period (1990 - 2014)

Author name: حسن خلف راضي
Supervisor name: فارس كريم بريهي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهدف هذه الدراسة الى اختبار العلاقة بين مكونات الطلب الكلي،وتوزيع الدخل في العراق للمدة (1990 - 2014) باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية بالاسعار الجارية وبالصيغة اللوغاريتمية، وامكانية الاجابة عن الاسئلة، هل انعكس توزيع الدخل في النمو الاقتصادي على واقع ا | This study aimed at testing the relationship between the components of aggregate demand and income distribution in Iraq for the period (1990 - 2014) using time series data at current prices and as logarithmic. It also aimed to answer the following questions : was the income distribution reflected on the reality of the rentier Iraqi economy? Were the aggregate demand components able to achieve the fair distribution of the income in the Iraqi economy? And was the growth achieved first or the distribution and the response exchange between them when tracking the time and quantitative path of the study variables? for the purpose of proving the study hypothesis which states that the relationship between the aggregate demand components and the income distribution in Iraq for the period (1990 - 2014) is weak. In addition, the study aimed at testing the relationship between the components of aggregate demand and economic growth in Iraq. The study also measures and analyzes the relationship between the expenditure and the economic growth and Gini index to measure the inequality in the distribution of income according to a family survey of the year 2012. Determining the reality of the of the aggregate demand components and the distribution of the growth benefits and their effect on the inequality in the incomes distribution in the Iraqi economy which is described as a rentier economy. The distribution of delay model (ARDL) was used. All the variables of the study were shown to be stable at first difference or at the level of some variables. The long and short - term equilibrium relationship (co - integration) between variables and test the causality of these variables was tested. Tests showed that governmental spending has positive impact in the short term and negative impact through long - term in the model that measures the relationship between aggregate demand components and economic growth. The individual spending was found to have a positive impact on the average income of the individuals for the short term because increasing spending leads to an increase in the economic growth. Negative impact in the average spending was found over the long term for economic growth. The Gini index for measuring the disparity in income distribution had no significant impact in the long term on the growth in the provinces of Iraq. The remaining variables included in the study were found to have no effect in the short - term economic growth, where the parameters of these variables were low and has no impact on the growth. The study recommended the diversification of income sources in Iraq

قياس اثر برامج الاصلاح الاقتصادي على الفجوة الغذائية في الوطن العربي : مصر, الاردن حالة دراسية == Measuring The Impact of Economic Reform Programmes On The Food Gap In The Arab Homeland : Egypt & Jordan (Case Study)

Author name: جليل كامل غيدان الجبوري
Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The world order witnessed vast structural changes branded by rapidity and comprehensiveness which caused dramatical changes on many economical variables. It also influenced the social and economic situations to all countries whether developed or developing. So the developing countries find itself required to enter or adopt the policies of political reform imposed by the world economic environment factors, local factors represented by economic recession, increase in oil prices, aggravation of the crisis of foreign indebtedness, international increase of interest prices, the trend to globalization, the prominence of the private sector as a main axis to activate the economic activity and to undertake an effective role in the economic development. All these factors led to structural confusion in the economies of the developing countries, including the countries of the Arab Homeland. Food is regarded as an essential indicator for economic growth and a measure for the level of individual's luxury, so this study aims at showing the extent of the influence of the policies of the economic reform programmes used in the Arab World countries on the food gap represented by the difference between consumption and production hypothesizing that, these policies have positive and negative influences on the food gap. This study is divided into three chapters.The first chapter includes a theoretical vision for the economic reform programmes and its reflection on the food gap. The first section deals with the concepts of economic reform. In the second section, the food gap tackled, and the section devoted to the theoretical influences of the economic reform programmes on the food gap.The second chapter tackles the applications of the economic reform programmes and the food gap in chosen countries (Egypt & Jordan)..

تحليل اثر تقلبات السوق المالية على اسعار الصرف في عدد من البلدان النامية مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == Effect of Financial Market Volatilities On The Exchange Rate In The Number of The Developing Countries Including Iraq

Author name: بلال محمد اسعد محمود
Supervisor name: عماد محمد علي عبد اللطيف العاني
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى تحليل العلاقة بين بيانات مؤشر السوق المالية مع سعر الصرف الاجنبي في عدد من البلدان النامية، مع اثبات وجود اثر لتقلبات مؤشر السوق المالية على سعر الصرف الاجنبي لعملة البلد الذي يشهد تقلبات في سوقه الاساسي للاوراق المالية، مع التركيز على حالة | This study aim at analyzing the relationship between the financial market index data with the foreign exchange rate in the number of the developing countries, with certifying the existence of an effect to the volatilities of the financial market index on the foreign exchange rate of a country currency that witnesses volatilities in its basic financial market, with focus on a case of Iraq state, by using models of (GARCH) Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity with used recently in analyzing and discovering the volatilities in the financial markets particularly and the risks resulted in, and an extent of results accuracy of this model has been tested by using Granger causality test.The study includes the daily data of a sample for seven states (Iraq, Saudia Arabia, Qatar, Tunisia, Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE) for the period beginning in 2/1/2010 and till of 19/11/2013, because these are developing countries enjoying with active markets of the financial indexes besides the exchange rate, and their economies are nearly similar as depending on a basic resource the oil exports or tourism at large and similar to Iraq case.There are two methods to discuss and analyzing the relationship between the volatilities in the financial market and the volatilities in exchange rate : the traditional method and modern financial portfolio method. The study concluded that states (Indonesia, Saudia Arabia, UAE) has analysis results were identical to the classical method saying that the exchange rate effects on financial market index, while other states (Malaysia, Tunisia, Iraq) had analysis results were identical to the financial portfolio method which emphasizes that volatilities in the financial market index effect on currency exchange rate of these states.The bi - direction relationship between the financial market index and the exchange rate was appeared clearly in the case of (Qatar) state, since the analysis of data series of this state showed the existence of mutual effect to the volatilities of the two financial and exchange rate markets. Granger causality test has come to confirm an accuracy extent and the rightness to the estimated relationship and its identification to the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity GARCH (1,1) for the financial time series of the states as sample under study.

قياس الاداء التنموي لاسواق المال العربية للمدة 1994 - 2004

Author name: بشير هادي عودة الطائي
Supervisor name: زهرة حسن عباس التميمي | مصطفى مهدي حسين
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:

اثر السياسة المالية في تحقيق الاستقرار والنمو في العراق للمدة 2010 - 1990

Author name: باسم خميس عبيد
Supervisor name: فريد جواد كاظم الدليمي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان السياسة المالية في فترة الحصار الاقتصادي (1990 - 2003) تعرضت الى فقدان الايراد المالي ذو المصدر النفطي مما دفع الامر الى هيمنة السياسة المالية على السياسة النقدية واتباع سياسة النقد الرخيص (التمويل التضخمي) بهدف تمويل برامج التنمية الاقتصادية التي لم ت | That fiscal policy in the economic blockade (1990 - 2003) came to the loss of financial revenue source with oil, prompting it to the dominance of fiscal policy on monetary policy and pursue a policy of cheap cash inflationary financing to fund economic development programs that have not been fulfilled on the ground, but able to maintain an acceptable level of consumer spending (ration card) and the reason for this trend of economic cycles inflationary strike reflected a lack of economic stability and the occurrence of the so - called inflation stasis in terms of higher general level of prices and the low level of GDP as well as the spread of speculation and parallel markets that fueled waves inflationary to the release cash. As the vision and philosophy of the economic system in Iraq after 2003, which represents the second part of the study (2003 - 2010) were not clearly defined and remains true because of overlapping internal factors was the novelty of the political system and the lack of political decision - makers and economic to understanding and conviction full need shaping a new administration of the Iraqi economy is able to succeed economic development programs, and external factors was determinedly international organizations to implement reforms style shock and contrary to the social reality and the security which reflected negatively on the work and consistency Lisseeash financial balance between stability and growth and raise the level of consumer spending, which caused the entry of the Iraqi economy in courses inflationary sustainable fueled waves of economic instability and low levels of gross non - oil, also entered fiscal policy contradictions basic including reconciling role Stablilty and development on the one hand and the search for stabilizers dynamic wide spectrum of the public budget in the absence of the economic approach is clear and the independence of the monetary authority effecting which negatively impacted the financial and monetary stability, economic and economic development plans.

فاعلية سياسة التمويل الزراعي في تحفيز الاستثمار : المبادرة الزراعية في العراق عام 2008 انموذجا == The Effectiveness of Agricultural Financing Policy In Stimulating Investment (In 2008 Model Agricultural Initiative In Iraq)

Author name: اياد كاظم عيدان البولاني
Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد سياسة التمويل الزراعي احد اهم السياسات الزراعية والتي يتم من خلالها تحديد الاجراءات والقواعد الخاصة بالتمويل بعد ان تقوم الحكومة بتوفير رؤوس الاموال اللازمة لتحفيز الاستثمار والنهوض بالقطاع الزراعي وتنميته.نطلقت الدراسة من مشكلة مفادها (( ان عدم التز | The procedures and rules for funding after that the government will provide the necessary capital to stimulate investment and the promotion of the agricultural sector and development, centered research problem through the following (The lack of commitment to agricultural finance some of the bases for the right financing and rules Policy represented by (having hand specialist paint financing policy, the existence of a full credit plan depends accurate statistics for the agricultural sector, setting priorities and realistic targets, provide agricultural finance policy, one of the most important agricultural policies and by which to determine the guarantees...), as well as the lack of compatibility and coordination between them and the economic and agricultural policies It leads to weakening its effectiveness in stimulating agricultural investment and achieve its development goals. that seeks to achieve, has tested the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between agricultural finance and stimulate investment, but conditional on the availability of rules and conditions for the proper funding the study, the study is aimed at several objectives the most important study of the effectiveness of the financing of the agricultural initiative launched by the Iraqi government, after which the policy in 2008 to stimulate agricultural investment, and that characterized previous funding policies as including not only agricultural loans, but they include the provision of additional funds in the budget to support infrastructure projects to the ministries of agriculture and water resources, and to support activities and projects chock agricultural sector through the Executive Office of the agricultural initiative, the descriptive approach to adopt in the theoretical side, and drop the study on the ground through the analysis and measurement of some economic indicators (local agricultural output, capital formation agricultural hard money, the total area under cultivation, production, productivity and space for crop strategic wheat), and some of the lending and finance indicators, where it was compared to the time that the agricultural initiative worked out a period of study (2008 - 2015) with the previous period of time (1995 - 2007), indicating the impact of disbursements on the agricultural sector on the economic indicators mentioned above. the researcher found to a number of the most important conclusions lack the initiative to plan credit when marque shares and clearly in the disparity in the size of loans and the number of beneficiaries from one province to another and from one year to another, and the funding of the initiative is directly dependent on the general budget, which is completely dependent on oil revenues affected and directly on the annual allocations which saw fluctuation and lower after falling oil prices after 2014, as the initiative has seen weakness in the follow - up and monitoring of loans and coincided with a deterioration of the security situation in some provinces, the study made several recommendations, the most important limitation of agricultural finance policy agricultural cooperative bank after the restructuring, and to link lending to savings, and the trend towards targeted loans that serve the agricultural sector, and activating the monitoring and follow - up of loans granted to a system that granted exclusively for those working in the agricultural sector who own agricultural land after confirmation of their qualifications, including their merit and credit reputations of literary and historical

العلاقة بين اسعار الصرف والميزان التجاري في ظل المنهج النقدي في دول نامية مختارة مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == The Relationship Between Exchange Rate And Balance of Trade In The Monetary Approach In Selected Developing Countries - With Specific Reference To Iraq

Author name: اياد حماد عبد
Supervisor name: ايمان عبد خضير الغريباوي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The study of the relationship between the exchange rate and balance of trade is important - especially in the Emergent countries which have commercial flows connected with the current account of balance of trade more than its connection to the capital account because these countries do not have integrated financial and cash markets.The previous studies were characterized by how the exchange rate and currency value are effected by the supply and quantity of money in circulation inside the country and the role of this quantity of cash in determining the local currency value, then the effect of this value of this currency and the balance of trade (exports and imports). Therefore, there should be treatment of the latter which in result, treats the shortage in balance of payments as a whole. This study will gather these two relationships in one relationship throughout making the exchange rate as a following variable , while the money supply and balance of trade are made as an independent variable. The second relationship will make the balance of trade as a following variable, while the money supply and exchange rate are made as independent variable and applying them to the sample countries ( Jordan, Mexico, South of Africa and Iraq). As the study shows the relationship that moves from the exchange rate to the balance of trade or vice versa. The direction will be in two directions at the same time as it determines each one in the light of monetary approach. After that, the theoretical relationship will be applied in these countries for the purpose of measurement.This study reached a group of conclusions and recommendations, some of them are general in the theoretical aspect of the study and the relationship of the exchange rate with the balance of trade in the monetary approach.and the role of this method in determining the exchange rate and the status of the balance of trade method each one alone.As concerns the measurement results, the results have shown up that there is a long - term balance relationship moves from the balance of trade to the exchange rate in the monetary approach in Jordan because it follows up the fixed exchange rate system. As there is a long - term balance relationship that moves from exchange rate to the balance of trade in Mexico and South of Africa because Mexico follows up a general exchange rate , while South of Africa follows up the free exchange rate ( general).As regards Iraq, the results have shown up that there is a long - term balance relationship that moves from exchange rate to the balance of trade in the monetary approach..

تاثير التضخم المستهدف والناتج المحتمل في السياسة النقدية للعراق == Impact of Inflation And Potential Output In The Monetary Policy In Iraq

Author name: اسراء عبد فرحان
Supervisor name: محمود محمد محمود داغر
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهتم السياسة النقدية اهتماما كبيرا بتحقيق الاستقرار النقدي، من خلال رسم السياسة المؤثرة والمسيطرة على كمية النقود، والهادفة الى تحقيق الاستقرار في المستوى العام للاسعار وتحقيق التشغيل عند المستوى المحتمل للناتج وتحقيق النمو الاقتصادي، وصولا الى ادنى فج | Recent years monetary policy more focused on monetary stability goal , through the drawing influencing policy and controlling the quantity of money and aimed at achieving stability in the general level of prices and achievement of operating when the potential level of output and economic growth, reach the lowest output gap as well as with cross - target cash economy minimization of inflation gap.This study deals with the relationship between inflation and economic growth and estimating product gap of the Iraqi economy duration (1990 - 2014).Iraq's economy is suffering from an approximately complete separation between the monetary sector and the real sector, because of the absence of control mechanism after transmission of monetary policy to the real economy through controlling inflation at its target with a nominal anchor of monetary policy.Monetary policy is working in the Iraqi economy in the absence of the actual use of this potential output in the case that has been estimated, as well as attempting to estimate gap (inflation and output) and analysis of their direction and their impact on monetary policy. The researcher attempt to measure the relationship between the two gap and the nominal anchor.For checking which nominal anchor more accurate we used a model of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Estimate ARDL and test the Bound test to test the joint integration and the relationship of long and short - term between the variables under study, as well as induced response to test the relationship between the variables that measure the impact of the trauma suffered by the internal variable in the VAR model on the current and future values of other internal variables in the model function analysis conclusions reached the ineffectiveness of interest rate anchor nominal monetary policy to target inflation and the output of the Iraqi economy during the period of study, as well as the effectiveness of the exchange rate in effect at the gap (inflation and output).
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