تحليل وقياس ظاهرة العجز المزدوج في مصر وتونس والمغرب للمدة 1975 - 2000 == Analysis And Measurement The Twin Deficiit Phenomenon Iin Egypt,, Tunisia And Moroco For The Period ((1975 - - 2000))
Author name:
حلمي ابراهيم منشد
Supervisor name:
عباس جبار الشرع
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Basrah
First pages:
07T3570 - p.pdf
Abstract:
The main aim of this Thesis is to test the twin deficit phenomenon and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco for the period (1975 - 2000). To satisfy the aim, a several number of Econometric tests are follow : 1 - Testing of independent of monetary policy from the Fiscal policy. The results show us that the monetary policy dependent on the Fiscal policy in Egypt, and the budget deficit have an inflationary effect, in contrary to Tunisia and Morocco.2 - Testing the effect of Fiscal variables on private consumption by using Feldstein and Modigliani approachs. The results refer to the negative effect of budget deficit on private consumption in Egypt according to Feldstein approach and which meet to Ricardianequivalence in Egypt, in contrary to, in Tunisia and Morocco.3 - Testing the effects of Fiscal variables on private investment by using stepwise regression model, the results tell us the Crowding - out effect for some Fiscal variables in these countries, and Crowding - in effect for Trade liberalization on private investment in Tunisia and Morocco.4 - Testing of causality relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit, using Augmented Dickey - Fuller (ADF) test, Cointegration test, Engel - Granger approach for error correction model, and Grager causality test, we find that non - Cointegration of time series of variables in Tunisia, and Cointegration of time series of variables in Egypt and Morocco. And satisfying the Ricardian equivalence in Egypt and Tunisia, and satisfying the twin deficit in Morocco according to the bidirectional causality relationship between budget deficit and current account
