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قياس وتحليل دالة الطلب على النقود في العراق في الامد الطويل والقصير في اطار التكامل المشترك == Measuring And Analyzing The Demand Function For Money In Iraq For Long - Term And Short - Term Under The Co - Integration Framework
Author name:
خليل اسماعيل عزيز
Supervisor name:
سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T3612 - p.pdf
Abstract:
يعد الطلب على النقود احد طرفي التوازن النقدي الذي يشكل عرض النقود طرفه الاخر من المتغيرات النقدية الاساسية التي تم التركيز عليها في النظريات النقدية , وتكتسب دراسة وتحليل دالة الطلب على النقود اهمية خاصة سواء في الاقتصاديات المتقدمة ام النامية, وتساهم هذ | The demand for cash as one of the main variables in the cash theory is one of the two sides of money equilibrium which the supply for cash is the other side. The demand for cash model has special importance in the developed and developing countries equally. This dissertation aims to study and estimating the demand for cash and the effecting factors in Iraq for the period from 1990 - 2014. The cash for demand model was estimated by using (ARDL) and bound test to test the Cointegration and the long - run and short - run between the demand for cash in Iraq as a depended variable which is determined by bunch explanatory variables i.e. Gross Domestic Product in fixed prices(GDP), nominal interest rate, inflation rate and Iraqi Dinar rate of Exchange. The relationship among the variables was examined by Impulse Response Function (IRF) through which the internal variable shock impact will be measured in VAR model on the present and future values. The Johansen test results came out to confirm integrated direction relationship of one of the study variables whether using Trace Test or Maximum Eigenvalue test , as the estimated value was found to be greater than the critical value for both the cases at the significant level (p=0.007) for Trace Test and (p=0.018) for Maximum test, which indicates the long - run equilibrium relationship among the study variables and subsequently indicates integrated direction relationship between the real demand for money as a dependent variable and the other explanatory variables. The study is also confirms a short - run equilibrium among the study variables in direction of long - run equilibrium according to the error rectification model and the short - run relationship under ARDL model. The results of the long - run relationship between of the demand for money and its limitations came out to confirm the short - run relationship, and in other side the estimated value of ARDL test according to (SUSUMSQ) and (CUSUM) as it's within the critical area, therefore, the variables are stable for both the short - run and the long - run.
