اسم المؤلف:
صبحي بكر عثمان علي
اسم المشرف:
طه يونس حمادي الطائي
المستخلص:
لقد واجهت البلـدان النامية جملة من المشكلات في صادراتها الاوليـة، ولم تحقق ما كانت تسعى اليه من تحقيق معدلات نمو اقتصادي ملحوظة، بل كانت النتيجة تدهورا اكثر في معظمها. وتعد حالة عدم استقرار عوائد الصادرات الاولية وتدهور نسب التبادل التجاري وتباطئ | The development countries have faced a number of in their primary export, and they could not a chive what they wanted to a chive. a remarkable economical growing rates, where the result was more declining in most of them. The un stability state in the primary exports is considered one of these problems, which often has an influence in moving the entire variables negatively, so most of the studies focus on analyzing the influence of these problems on the entire economical variables and their relationship with the economical growing. This study is one of the real and modest academic tries in looking for the economical problem and the influence of these problems on the economical grousing in a selected sample of non - oil developing countries from (1985 to 2004). We looked at this subject, the current study was made to test the relationship between these three problem and the economical growing, therefore this subject has been choose, and believe that it is an original and new subject in its title and its variables, where a number of the former studies have dealt with a number of these variables such as : the unstable of the export revenues and the commercial exchanging rates under different titles, also this study dealt with the severable entirely, in other word, the unstable of the export revenues and the commercial exchanging rates of the entire exports, while this study has dealt with the unstable of the primary export revenues after separating them from the entire exports according to the determining articles of these exports in the standard international trade classification, therefore this study has extracted and accounted the standard number of the primary export prices in order to primary exports. As well as, this study has dealt with another problem of the slow growing of the external demand of the developing countries primary exports and its relationship with the economical growing, for making the theoretical framework of these problem goes with the contents of the economical theory which is focusing on explaining and interpreting the influence an like of these problems on the economical growing This study has put a hypothesis that there is a negative a relationship between the dealt problem and the economical growing in the developing countries, our study has following the quartile style depending on describing an economical standard sample according to the theoretical frame work presented in chapter one, and a number of former studies, the sample of this study is consisted of ten countries from three different continents to estimate the influence of these problems on the economical growing of countries. The period of the study has been divided into two parts : the first period (1985 - 1994) and the second period (1995 - 2004) and this division aimed at separating the period of these countries joining to the world trade organization from the former the former period, to see the extend influence of this organization in alleviating the toughness of these problem on the developing countries economies, where this will be described in details in chapter two. The current study included three chapters, the first chapter deals with the theoretical framework which explains the theoretical relationship between the three problems and the economical growing, and it includes four subjects, the first subject shows the problem of the unstable of the primary exports revenues and its relationship with the economical growing and we found that there were two transverse direction in explaining the relationship between this problem and the economical growing, where the first direction shows the positive relationship between un stability state and economical growing, and this direction depends on two hypothesis the first one is freeman's sustainable in come, The second hypothesis is the protection saving hypothesis. While the second direction, the researchers see that the relationship between the un stable state and the economical growing is negative. While the second subject dealt with the problem of commercial exchanging rates declining and its relationship with the economical growing. The third subject deals with analysis the problem of external demand growing weakness and its relationship with the economical growing where this study showed that the developing or progressing the external demand will leads to achieving high rates of the economical growing and if the external demand was law, the economical growing would declined. While the fourth subject concerns with showing the former studies and their state in this shady. While our study selected the primary exports of the study sample according to the standard international trade classification, and the values of the un stability in the primary exports revenues were counted according to the data issued by the united nations and world trade organization. Concerning the other variable, the variable of the weakness of primary exports commercial exchanging rates and its relationship with the economical growing , also these are some studies dealt with the enter exports relationship ,while our study was accounted primary exports commercial exchanging rates after getting the standard numbers of the primary exports prices of each country of the study's counties sample , while the third variable deals with the weakness of the external demand growing and its relationship with the economical growing , where we could not find any practical study to test this relationship chapter two will show the most important standards used in measuring these problems and then analysis them in the study's countries sample, and it includes three subject; the first one deals with how to measure the state of un stability of primary exports revenues and analysis the state of un stability in the study's countries sample from (1985 - 2004). While the second subject shows a number of the following procedures in measuring commercial exchanging rates, and the suitable standard has been chosen to measure these rates , and then analyzing the reality of commercial exchanging rates in the study's counties sample , while the third subject shows the most important standards used in measuring the state of the weakness of the external demand growing of the primary exports, and then measuring and analyzing the reality of external demand growing of the primary exports of the study's countries sample , while chapter three concerned with estimating and analyzing the influence of these problems on the study's sample , the period from (1985 - 2004) has been choosen for this study , because this period of time witnessed great changes on the economical growing , the mean reason behind choosing this sample of the developing countries is the accurate data in these countries and it is more completed from the other countries , and we have obtained an accurate results of each of the standard ; statistical and theatrical indicators and that these problem have a negative affect on the economical growing , but these result have came to support the research's hypothesis.
