اثـر الاصلاحات الاقتصادية في الفقر : دراسة مقارنة
Author name:
داؤد سليمان سلطان
Supervisor name:
سالم توفيق محمد احمد النجفي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
University of Al Mosul - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Mosul
First pages:
07T3261 - p.pdf
Abstract:
تشير الاصلاحات الاقتصادية الى مجموعة السياسات الاقتصادية المقترحة من قبل صندوق النقد، والبنك الدوليين وتتمثل بسياسات الاستقرار (التثبيت) الاقتصادي، وسياسات التكيف الهيكلي، الاولى تتضمن سياسات انكماشية قصيرة المدى، تتناول جانب الطلب وتسعى الى خفضه مستخ | Economic reforms defined as a group of bundles of economic policies suggested by International Monetary Fund, and World Bank. They comprise the policy of short - term economic stabilization including deflationary policies of controlling demand which is aimed by the World Bank as well as the long - term policies of the structural adjustment including policies designed to increase aggregate supply of goods and services which are demanded by the World Bank.During the last decades the use of economic reforms notion spread in the economic literatures as a new international economic system. This research tries to explain what is meant by its notion, its aggregate economic effects in general and its effects on reducing poverty level in particular. The importance of this research appears after the wide spread of the economic reforms policies which are applied by many countries namely the developing counters. They adopted it as a substitute of the policy of interference by other country. This policy proved it's slow down in numerous countries as an effecting factor on the aggregate economic changes. This is resulted from the developments occurred in the economic policies, and the difference in income caused by some of these policies whether this difference is between the members of one society or between different countries. The sample of this research was chosen after including 41 states. The first part including 25 developing countries, 22 of them are participant countries in the programs of world find and World Bank, and 3 of them are un - participant countries. The second part of the sample includes 16 countries of Emerging markets. 12of them are participant countries. The countries of the sample are classified in this way because of dissimilarity in the economic environment between these countries since the countries of the Emerging markets have past large number of stages in the field of the economic reforms which lead to the development of its market economy. Hence, the performance of the programs in the economy of these countries differ from that of the developing countries The period of this research begins from 1980 - 2003 During this period the participant countries in the programs of the fund and bank increased in large number especially from 1985 - 1998 in order to know the level of success and failure which was realized by these countries via practicing in the programs namely on the level of poverty. This research depends upon the comparative analytic descriptive method which is framed by the above method is included in the first three chapters in order to explain the basis and the theoretical relations and the models. The fourth chapter, which includes the experimental aspect of the research, depends upon employing, the quantitative models to find out the conclusions of the research by the use of pooled regression approach and the approach of division between the averages of two specimens to identify the effects of the economic reforms on poverty in the countries of the sample. The hypothesis of this research starts from the point, That the policies of Economic reforms suggested by International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank including, The policy of Economic stabilization, and the policy of Structural Adjustment have a direct effects on an increasing the rates of Economic Growth of the per capita of GDP, Reducing the poverty rates and an inequality of income distribution in the research sample. This research tries to examine and to measure the vitality of applying the policy of the economic reforms in the selected countries of the sample and its reflections on reducing poverty especially a subject like this one which is considered a vital. This is because most of the developing countries adopt it as a policy of tackling their economic problems. The application of these policies is a matter of continuous dispute. The research is divided into four chapters. The first three chapters deals with the theoretical aspect while the fourth one deals with the practical aspect.Chapter one contains three sections : the first one tackles the economic reforms; its notion, its historical background, its theoretical basis and its models. This section also concentrates on the difference between the policy of stabilization and that of the structural adjustment as well as explaining their contents.The second section deals with the theoretical background of the development of the economic reforms which begins from the neoclassical economic thought passing by the development of the economic thought then to the neo - classical theory. This section also concentrates on the macro - economic frame and choosing the correcting tools in the course of managing the demand throughout concentrating on the role of each of the financial and monetary policies during the economic reforms process. The third section presents the theoretical base of the methods used in measuring the effect of the programs on the macro - economic changes. These methods are : before - after approach, generalized evaluation Estimator approach and comparison of simulations approach.Chapter two discusses poverty and how is it affected by the policies of the short term macroeconomic adjustment, and the aspects of stabilization This chapter contains two sections the first one studies the notions of poverty showing the old and the modern notion and the dissimilarity of the notion of poverty according to time and place.The second section concentrates on the effect of macro economic adjustment on poverty throughout the aspects of the economic stabilization. This section includes the direct effects of stabilization policies on poverty levels via many points such as; the effect of reduction on the level, of employment and wages stagnancy, reducing the public cost and reducing support on the poverty level whereas the second part of this section deals with indirect effects of the economic stabilization policies on the poverty level represented by its effect on the levels of aggregate demand and employment, economic development, inflation and instability of macro - economic changes of exchange price the distributional effects of the programs on the poverty level.Chapter three tackles the policies of the structural adjustment and its effects on poverty, long - term policies and supply aspects. This chapter contains two sections. The first one concentrates on the policy of freedom of trade and its effect on reducing the level of poverty throughout its effect on the development average, labor market, and income distribution.The second section deals with another aspect of supply that is the direct foreign investment and its role in the operation of the economic development and reducing poverty. Also this section discusses the most important positive and negative aspects found out in the bundle of the direct foreign investment policy. The fourth chapter includes the practical aspect of this research which is composed of five sections. The first one shows how is the mode built and described It also explains the most important changes which are used, where as the other four sections concentrates on showing the effect of the economic reforms on poverty via four methods ate used, Before - After, With - Without, Generalized Evaluation Estimator approach and that of the Comparison of Simulation approach, in which two quantitative models ate used for this purpose : the division model between two samples average and the model of the pooled regression.The research concluded in many results and proposals. The most important of them that there are negative effects, or there is no any effect of economic reforms on the level of development in the sample of the research. There is rising in the average of poverty during the operation of these reforms. May be the positive effects of these reforms will appear in longer - terms of future, while in the short - term the negative effects of the reforms on the level of development of the average of the average of the individual portion from the total local production and the rising of the rates of poverty will appear throughout the concluded results.
