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توظيف نظام دعم القرار الاستراتيجي على وفق مدخل اصحاب المصالح == Employing Strategic Decision Support System According To Stakeholder Approach

Author name: بكر تركي عبد الامير خضير الحبيب
Supervisor name: جاسم محمد الذهبي
Specific topic: General Administration
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهدف هذه الدراسة الى توظيف تقانة نظم دعم القرار في عملية صنع القرار الاستراتيجي بالاستناد الى مدخل اصحاب المصالح الذي سيمثل القاعدة المعرفية للنظام المصمم. اما الاهداف التي يامل ان تحققها عملية التوظيف : فهي تحسين عملية صنع القرار الاستراتيجي من خلال توفي | This study aims essentially to Employ Decision Support System Technology in strategic decision making according to stakeholder approach which presents knowledge base of the system. Such a system can improve strategic decision making process through providing help to achieve better decisions in environmental conditions where multi - stakeholders play a great role to maintenance their different goals. The importance of study emerges from several aspects : Firstly it focuses on important and newer approach in strategic and organizational thought. Secondly the employed SDSS is truly rare in Arabic studies; furthermore employing process contain using the system in Ministry of Trade and Alrafdain College , This process can be considered an opportunity to investigate feasibility and adoption of Stakeholder Approach in public sector. Employing process depending on available knowledge embedded in Strategic Analysis Models; Support Systems and Information Technology Techniques.The study strives to construct all that in consistent integral synthesis, so the researcher has developed and adapted many tools for achieve an organic integrity of employed system. The process accomplished by using SDSS in analyzing two strategic problems : One of them is restructuring of configurations in Ministry of Trade (public organization ); and the problem of futuristic strategic threats in Alrafdein College(business organization). Study has found that strategic decision support system according to Stakeholder Approach can provide many facilities and advantages to strategic decision makers like : Using strategic analysis tools, adopt systematic logical thinking, and capitalize information technology abilities. Recommendations of study certify of : The importance of designing stakeholder's Information System, The necessity of Information Technology tools by establishment of special Center for DSS Research. Also mangers recognition must be directed towards stakeholders influence on organizational performance and work to integrate their goals in decision making.

التحليل البيزي لنماذج الانحدار الخاصة بالبيانات المزدوجة (panel data) == Bayesian Analysis For Regression Panel Data Models

Author name: باسم شليبه مسلم عباس القيسي
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد البيانات الاحصائية ضرورية عند دراسة اغلب ظواهر المجتمع ومنها الظواهر الاقتصادية والاجتماعية والنفسية الخ كون تحليل تللك البيانات باستخدام الاساليب الاحصائية توفر للباحث او متخذ القرار حول الظاهرة المدروسة قاعدة من المعلومات الضرورية لتسهيل عملية اتخاذ | The statistic data is important to study most of phenomena as economical , social , psychological phenomena..etc. The analysis of this data via the statistical methods gives the researcher or the decision maker more information about the studied phenomenon to make the suitable decision. The data availability needs to limit a mathematic model which represents them by the researcher and to put in consideration the type of the available data. One of the these data is panel data which can be defined ( that they are repeated measurements to the studied phenomena for N from the cross section and for T from the time series ) which can be represented by one of the model ( fixed effect model or random effect model ).Most of the studies exposed estimation of the chosen model parameters by using the classical methods as GLS and FGLS methods , whereas this research touches on the Bayesian methods to estimate parameters , especial regressive model (panel data) ,depending on the priors distributions ( non informative prior dist. and conjunct prior dist. ) and to compare them with ML method to chose the best ones for estimation and choosing.After doing two practical applications in the research ,we obtained findings. ML method was the most significant for estimating the model parameters for the fixed effect model and pooling model. Bayes method which depends on non informative prior distribution , got the second grade.When using Bayes method depending on prior distribution used in the research to estimate the fixed model parameters when the cross sections number are little to get multivariate - t posterior distribution , and if it is used with random effect model we get multivariate normal after making asymptotic expansion with existing of a loss function of the weighed squired error.

اثر السياسة المالية في تحقيق الاستقرار والنمو في العراق للمدة 2010 - 1990

Author name: باسم خميس عبيد
Supervisor name: فريد جواد كاظم الدليمي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان السياسة المالية في فترة الحصار الاقتصادي (1990 - 2003) تعرضت الى فقدان الايراد المالي ذو المصدر النفطي مما دفع الامر الى هيمنة السياسة المالية على السياسة النقدية واتباع سياسة النقد الرخيص (التمويل التضخمي) بهدف تمويل برامج التنمية الاقتصادية التي لم ت | That fiscal policy in the economic blockade (1990 - 2003) came to the loss of financial revenue source with oil, prompting it to the dominance of fiscal policy on monetary policy and pursue a policy of cheap cash inflationary financing to fund economic development programs that have not been fulfilled on the ground, but able to maintain an acceptable level of consumer spending (ration card) and the reason for this trend of economic cycles inflationary strike reflected a lack of economic stability and the occurrence of the so - called inflation stasis in terms of higher general level of prices and the low level of GDP as well as the spread of speculation and parallel markets that fueled waves inflationary to the release cash. As the vision and philosophy of the economic system in Iraq after 2003, which represents the second part of the study (2003 - 2010) were not clearly defined and remains true because of overlapping internal factors was the novelty of the political system and the lack of political decision - makers and economic to understanding and conviction full need shaping a new administration of the Iraqi economy is able to succeed economic development programs, and external factors was determinedly international organizations to implement reforms style shock and contrary to the social reality and the security which reflected negatively on the work and consistency Lisseeash financial balance between stability and growth and raise the level of consumer spending, which caused the entry of the Iraqi economy in courses inflationary sustainable fueled waves of economic instability and low levels of gross non - oil, also entered fiscal policy contradictions basic including reconciling role Stablilty and development on the one hand and the search for stabilizers dynamic wide spectrum of the public budget in the absence of the economic approach is clear and the independence of the monetary authority effecting which negatively impacted the financial and monetary stability, economic and economic development plans.

تقدير نماذج مختلطة للبيانات المصنفة مع التطبيق العملي == Estimation Mixed Models Using Catacorical Data With Application

Author name: ايناس عبد الحافظ محمد
Supervisor name: خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعتمد مفهوم التوزيعات المختلطة ( المركبة) في تطوير نماذج مناسبة للبيانات المصنفة , وقد تم في هذا البحث ايجاد بعض الانماذج الاحتمالية الملائمة لهذه البيانات ومن ثم العمل على تقدير معلمات هذه الانماذج.وبعد تشخيص اوتحديد نوعي التوزيعات وهما (التوزيع المركب | The concept of mixed distributions depends (composite) in the development of appropriate data seed models, has been in this research finding some models appropriate probability of this data and then work to estimate the parameters of this models. After diagnosis Aothdid two types of distributions, namely (compound beta - Bainomal (Beta - distribution Binomial) and the distribution of Ganerlized logarithmic Series distribution (GLSD)) has been working to estimate the parameters of these distributions methods usual such as way as possible (MLE) and the method of moments (Moment) and the method of Chi - square (Chi - squar) and methods of unconventional such as search cuckoo algorithm Hawwarzmih simulated annealing. The theoretical side included the concept of vehicle models and how to configure form by probabilistic normal function and methods different appreciation such as method Maximum Likelihood Function (MLE) and the method of moments (Mom) and a method to minimize Chi - square (Minimum) and methods of artificial intelligence techniques such as search cuckoo algorithm (Cock Search) algorithm simulated annealing (Simuannling) has been presented simulation has been adopted in the comparison between the estimation methods and we had simulated experiments at different volumes of samples( n= 20, 50, 100,250). And repeat each experiment R = 1000 to achieve the goal and were compared using statistical measurements (MSE, AMPE) found that the best method (cuck) which is proposed by the researcher. The researcher numbers Bernamjeh (Matlab, R2005 B) and put all the results in the tables either the practical side and having briefed researcher at data rates of disability and for the period of (2007 - 2010) obtained through the health center for the disabled has been the comparison between Models through criterion (AIC) the standard bayes Information (BIC) and the standard G2) the researcher found that the capabilities of the search cuckoo algorithm is better than during the experimental side, therefore this algorithm applied to real data to complement the tests of good matching, which enabled Khalalhl the researcher presented the practical application of the private tables results. It was found through statistical analysis that in the year (2011) has a lower standard Akaki for the distribution of the compound compared with the distribution chain logarithmic year, which indicates that it has the best modelFrom the conclusions that have been reached by using way (GIBS) in the simulation of mixed distribution and the method of rejection and acceptance (Reject, Accept) for distribution Genaralized logarithim Series is that the capabilities of the specimen landmarks using the best in terms possess the lowest average error boxes in sizes small samples search cuckoo algorithm is medium and large The rest of the roads were estimates varying values. It has been presented the recommendations that emerged from the thesis as well as future research

استخدام نظرية الرابطة لتحليل دالة البقاء ذات المتغيرين == Using The Copula Theory For Analyzing The Bivariate Survival Function

Author name: ايمان عبد علي داود
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذا البحث استعمال نظرية الرابطة (Copula Theory) في نمذجة دالة البقاء ذات المتغيرين اذ تم استعمال انموذجين يخضعان لتوزيع ويبل ذي المتغيرين وانموذج اخر يخضع للتوزيع الطبيعي ذي المتغيرين القياسي المبتور عند الصفر وبنسبة خلط واعتمادية واحجام عينات مخ | It has been concluded in this research to use the copula theory in modeling the survival function of the bivariate as two models yielding to the bivariate weibull distribution has been used and another model that submit to the bivariate standard normal cut off at zero point and mixing percentage, reliance and sizes of different specimens and a simulation experiment has been carried out for the purpose of making experimental comparison between the evaluations of the survival function mentioned above by using six different copulas in addition to two common models, the first by using the function when assuming independence and the second by using the survival function definition of the bivariate as the use of copulas has been reached which led to acquire an evaluated survival function of the bivariate with properties of more fineness than the two evaluated survival functions of the bivariate which had been acquired by using the two common models referred to above.

انعكاس الذكاءين الروحي والشعوري في القيادة التحويلية لتحسين الاداء المالي : دراسة تحليلية في عدد من المصارف العراقية الاهلية == The Reflection of Spiritual And Emotional Intelligences In Transformational Leadership To Improve Financial Performance Analytical Study In A Number of Iraqi Private Banks

Author name: ايمان عامر حميد الدهان
Supervisor name: انتصار عباس حمادي الدليمي
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
Key words:
  • الذكاء الروحي
  • الذكاء الشعوري
  • نمط القيادة التحويلية
  • الاداء المالي Spiritual Intelligence
  • Emotional Intelligence
  • Transformational Leadership
  • Financial Performance
First pages:
Abstract: This study Explored two types of intelligence fond by Howard Gardner in his multiple intelligences theory (1985), The Spiritual Intelligence and the Emotional intelligence with their dimensions As the explanation variables in addition to the Transformational Leadership Style and its four dimensions as the mediator and their effects on the financial performance of the sample banks.The Philosophical and the theoretical framework for this research was based on the core of the interaction relationships between the variables. The research emerged from an intellectual dilemma with two dimensions, the theoretical dimension represented by the rarity of research on spiritual intelligence with emotional intelligence in the Arabic environment and especially the Iraqi environment. In addition to the rarity in research on the relationship between the spiritual and emotional intelligences on transformational leadership and its effect on financial performance of the sample banks, and the need for organizations to enrich their philosophical knowledge and understanding about these concepts and its importance in the practical or empirical life to be an important tools in facing the ever changing environmental challenges.The empirical dimension went to examine the relationship between transformational leadership and the level of financial performance in the sample banks and the relationship between the explanatory variables spiritual intelligence and emotional intelligence in improving the financial performance.The aim of the study is tracking what spiritual intelligence and emotional intelligence can add to the financial performance Through what the transformational leadership dimensions deliver as a mediator. The study used a descriptive analytical deductive method. The study defined a set of Assumptions as answers for the study s' problem tested by non - parametric statistical tools as : SPSS, Mediator, Scope, False limit factor ,correlation and Multiple Regression. An intentional sample of (116) individuals had been chosen from the managerial leaders in12 private banks in Iraq and The research found a number of important conclusions the most important one was the absence of spiritual and emotional intelligences effects on financial performance at the empirical level of the research , inaddition to the orientation of the banks to the social aspects more than the individual aspects..based on these results a number of recommendations were set ,and the research recommended that the concept of spiritual and emotional intelligence should be enhanced and be given more attention through workshops and conferences in addition to a training program for spreading these concepts and their importance in the success of the individual and organizations

فاعلية سياسة التمويل الزراعي في تحفيز الاستثمار : المبادرة الزراعية في العراق عام 2008 انموذجا == The Effectiveness of Agricultural Financing Policy In Stimulating Investment (In 2008 Model Agricultural Initiative In Iraq)

Author name: اياد كاظم عيدان البولاني
Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد سياسة التمويل الزراعي احد اهم السياسات الزراعية والتي يتم من خلالها تحديد الاجراءات والقواعد الخاصة بالتمويل بعد ان تقوم الحكومة بتوفير رؤوس الاموال اللازمة لتحفيز الاستثمار والنهوض بالقطاع الزراعي وتنميته.نطلقت الدراسة من مشكلة مفادها (( ان عدم التز | The procedures and rules for funding after that the government will provide the necessary capital to stimulate investment and the promotion of the agricultural sector and development, centered research problem through the following (The lack of commitment to agricultural finance some of the bases for the right financing and rules Policy represented by (having hand specialist paint financing policy, the existence of a full credit plan depends accurate statistics for the agricultural sector, setting priorities and realistic targets, provide agricultural finance policy, one of the most important agricultural policies and by which to determine the guarantees...), as well as the lack of compatibility and coordination between them and the economic and agricultural policies It leads to weakening its effectiveness in stimulating agricultural investment and achieve its development goals. that seeks to achieve, has tested the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between agricultural finance and stimulate investment, but conditional on the availability of rules and conditions for the proper funding the study, the study is aimed at several objectives the most important study of the effectiveness of the financing of the agricultural initiative launched by the Iraqi government, after which the policy in 2008 to stimulate agricultural investment, and that characterized previous funding policies as including not only agricultural loans, but they include the provision of additional funds in the budget to support infrastructure projects to the ministries of agriculture and water resources, and to support activities and projects chock agricultural sector through the Executive Office of the agricultural initiative, the descriptive approach to adopt in the theoretical side, and drop the study on the ground through the analysis and measurement of some economic indicators (local agricultural output, capital formation agricultural hard money, the total area under cultivation, production, productivity and space for crop strategic wheat), and some of the lending and finance indicators, where it was compared to the time that the agricultural initiative worked out a period of study (2008 - 2015) with the previous period of time (1995 - 2007), indicating the impact of disbursements on the agricultural sector on the economic indicators mentioned above. the researcher found to a number of the most important conclusions lack the initiative to plan credit when marque shares and clearly in the disparity in the size of loans and the number of beneficiaries from one province to another and from one year to another, and the funding of the initiative is directly dependent on the general budget, which is completely dependent on oil revenues affected and directly on the annual allocations which saw fluctuation and lower after falling oil prices after 2014, as the initiative has seen weakness in the follow - up and monitoring of loans and coincided with a deterioration of the security situation in some provinces, the study made several recommendations, the most important limitation of agricultural finance policy agricultural cooperative bank after the restructuring, and to link lending to savings, and the trend towards targeted loans that serve the agricultural sector, and activating the monitoring and follow - up of loans granted to a system that granted exclusively for those working in the agricultural sector who own agricultural land after confirmation of their qualifications, including their merit and credit reputations of literary and historical

العلاقة بين اسعار الصرف والميزان التجاري في ظل المنهج النقدي في دول نامية مختارة مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == The Relationship Between Exchange Rate And Balance of Trade In The Monetary Approach In Selected Developing Countries - With Specific Reference To Iraq

Author name: اياد حماد عبد
Supervisor name: ايمان عبد خضير الغريباوي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The study of the relationship between the exchange rate and balance of trade is important - especially in the Emergent countries which have commercial flows connected with the current account of balance of trade more than its connection to the capital account because these countries do not have integrated financial and cash markets.The previous studies were characterized by how the exchange rate and currency value are effected by the supply and quantity of money in circulation inside the country and the role of this quantity of cash in determining the local currency value, then the effect of this value of this currency and the balance of trade (exports and imports). Therefore, there should be treatment of the latter which in result, treats the shortage in balance of payments as a whole. This study will gather these two relationships in one relationship throughout making the exchange rate as a following variable , while the money supply and balance of trade are made as an independent variable. The second relationship will make the balance of trade as a following variable, while the money supply and exchange rate are made as independent variable and applying them to the sample countries ( Jordan, Mexico, South of Africa and Iraq). As the study shows the relationship that moves from the exchange rate to the balance of trade or vice versa. The direction will be in two directions at the same time as it determines each one in the light of monetary approach. After that, the theoretical relationship will be applied in these countries for the purpose of measurement.This study reached a group of conclusions and recommendations, some of them are general in the theoretical aspect of the study and the relationship of the exchange rate with the balance of trade in the monetary approach.and the role of this method in determining the exchange rate and the status of the balance of trade method each one alone.As concerns the measurement results, the results have shown up that there is a long - term balance relationship moves from the balance of trade to the exchange rate in the monetary approach in Jordan because it follows up the fixed exchange rate system. As there is a long - term balance relationship that moves from exchange rate to the balance of trade in Mexico and South of Africa because Mexico follows up a general exchange rate , while South of Africa follows up the free exchange rate ( general).As regards Iraq, the results have shown up that there is a long - term balance relationship that moves from exchange rate to the balance of trade in the monetary approach..

العلاقة بين التعقيد المعرفي الادراكي والاداء الابداعي من خلال التكيف مع الوظيفة : دراسة استطلاعية لاراء عينة من قيادات المصارف الاهلية العراقية في محافظة بغداد == The Relationship Between Cognitive Complexity And Innovation Performance Through Job Adaptability Field Research In A Number of Iraqi Private Banks

Author name: اياد حسن كاظم
Supervisor name: عبد الرحمن مصطفى طه الملا | طاهر ريسان دخيل
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: It can be considered as the ability of the managerial leaders in private bank to lead organizational change complexity and out of the most difficult and complex responsibility in the leadership and the simple liner thinking with sequential steps and procedures become inadequate for rapid response and environment characterized by ambiguity and uncertainty and big challenges in the decision. making process and interpret the variables systematically in the light of problems that cannot be predicted and risks and picket overlapping relationship among those variables.all these factors require the management leaders abilities to distinguish between the many variables in order to deal with the complex nonlinear change as a frame work in such complex environments and then the capacity of integration between these variables in order to make effective decisions in their jobs that require them capabilities to deal and cope with the complex and rapid fluctuations in problems and events in short period of time problems and the adaptation to function autonomously process by the administrative leadership in the main process in a quick response to those changes in order to create an environment that enable their employees to achieve innovation and creativity in these complex environments. The search focus an number at goals including knowledge of correlations between cognitive complexity and adaptability job to the variables and the organizational innovation performance in light ,where the search has been studied the variables of complexity cognitive and adaptability job to the level of individual and innovation performance at the corporate level. The study includes 52 private banks in Baghdad and 25 where was choose and 202 employees were selected as a sample of which targeted it was distributed 232 questionnaires and 22 of them were non - returnable and 22 were neglected for lack 0f answers. the researcher used this questionnaires as a tool for measuring.the study found an number of important conclusion and recommendations. including a correlation between cognitive complexity relationship and adaptability job with the and correlation between complexity and the impact of cognitive complexity relationship and adaptability with the job and correlation and indirect impact between cognitive complexity and innovation performance and direct correlation between the impact of adaptability job and the innovation performance and a direct correlation between the complexity of cognitive.

اطار مقترح لانشطة التدقيق الاجتماعي ودوره في قياس الاداء

Author name: امل محمد سلمان التميمي
Supervisor name: جليلة عيدان حليحل الذهبي
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: During the near past period, many significant changes took place in auditing as result of the huge rapid economics changes that’s influence in creating of many other kinds of auditing in addition to the Financial Auditing. One of the important kinds is Asocial Auditing. This Study aims to frame the concept of social auditing activities and try to develop a conceptual framework of social auditing for needing to it in the economic units , and tried to shed light on the importance of social Auditing in working environments, and to define some of the basic concepts for social performance, as wells as attempting to design and implement an accounting framework, in a way that aims to produce accounting information that shows the new roles of the accounting systems.This aims to determine and measure the extent ofthe effect of the leisure on the community, and showing social goals. The study found a set of conclusions, the most important of which was as the following : Social audit activities can help measure public policy consistency between promises and actual results. Verifying consistency between plans/programs/policies and actual results can lead to improvements in many governance areas, and can translate into economic and social benefits. A social audit activities is conducted over the life span of a scheme or programme, and not just in one go or at one stage. It audits the process, the outputs and the outcomes. It audits planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation The auditing of social responsibility for economic units is stilla subject of dubitable between the researchers to define its concepts,nature, control, measurement and disclosing it to all the users offinancial statements. the general frame of the social responsibility is unlimited features and disagreed on its dimensions just today.The study also showed that the framework constructed can be modified to accommodate for different sizes,activities and structures of the economical unities. The study concluded in proposed framework for social auditing as well as a set of recommendations.

المحاسبة عن اموال الصناديق السيادية في ضوء الممارسات المحاسبية الحكومية : انموذج مقترح == Accounting For The Funds of Sovereign In Light of The Governments Accounting Practices - Suggested Model

Author name: الهام محمد واثق العبيدي
Supervisor name: سعد سلمان عواد المعيني
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تناول هذا البحث مشكلة اعداد الموازنة العامة بالاعتماد على مصدر اساسي واحد في التمويل( مبيعات الموارد الطبيعية ) من دون اعتمادها على مصادر متنوعة من التمويل، وعرض البحث اهمية الاستفادة من ايرادات بيع الموارد الطبيعية واعادة استثمار جزء منها لتحقيق الدعم ل | This research deals with the problem of the numbers of the general budget by relying on one primary source of funding (natural resources sales) without reliance on a variety of sources of funding, and Display search importance of taking advantage of the receipts from the sale of natural resources and reinvest part of it to support the economy first, and to ensure that future generations rights natural resources and the fear of depletion Secondly, it has been the goal of research to the study and analysis of the conceptual aspects of the funds of sovereign funds submersible and view and analyze their own international accounting practices and propose measurement and proper accounting disclosure to the practice of acts of sovereign funds submersible, was built search on assumptions that (does not provide accounting practices in the sector General currently applied measurement and adequate disclosure of accounting operations to fund sovereign funds submersible and that the model proposed to account for operations of this type of fund that meets the needs of users of accounting information which has been prepared based on international standards for the public sector) and most have exceeded the researcher's conclusions (double accounting methods for SWFs submersible funds and the lack of international or its own local rules to standardize and directing the accounting for its money, and that Mamugod actually a set of generally accepted principles (Santiago principles) are working to develop and upgrade them by professional international organizations to make the standards). It also recommends a researcher in this regard (the need to update existing laws and the enactment of new laws that facilitate the creation of sovereign funds submersible of all kinds with reference to the need to develop the accounting work in by (the need to adopt an accrual basis of accounting, keep up with versions of international standards for the public sector, to provide permanent financing methods for these funds

انموذج حديث مقترح لهرمية المعلومات المحاسبية الحكومية : دراسة تطبيقية للمعلومات المنتجة في دائرة المحاسبة في وزارة المالية

Author name: الاء شمس الله الخزعلي
Supervisor name: ماهر موسى العبيدي
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

انعكاس عمليات التدقيق الاستراتيجي على اداء المنظمات العامة : بحث تحليلي في امانة بغداد == A Reflection of The Strategic Audit Operations On The Performance of Public Organizations An Analytical Research At Mayoralty of Baghdad

Author name: اكرم سالم حسن الجنابي
Supervisor name: علي حسون فندي الطائي
Specific topic: General Administration
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى تحديد المضامين والدلالات النظرية والعملية لانعكاس عمليات التدقيق الاستراتيجي على الاداء المنظمي وتقييم مستوى وفاعلية كل من هذين المتغيرين وابعادهما من خلال دراسة تحليلية في امانة بغداد للتعرف على كيفية تعامل المنظمات مع اطر التدقيق الاســــ | The research aims to determine the contents of the theoretical and practical implications for strategic audit and organizational performance and the relationship and influence between them and assess the level and effectiveness of each of these two variables and dimensions through the analytical field study in Baghdad Municipality to clarify how public organizations dealing in particular, and therefore the business in general with frameworks and techniques and methods and tools for strategic audit organizations and investing them in sustaining its success to activate its performance. It was elucidate the hypotheses of the nature of the relationship and influence between strategic audit as an independent variable - dimensions "mission and strategic goals, implementation, information and communication system, scarce resources, governance " on Organizational performance as responsive variable - dimensions "learning and growth, internal operations , financial perspective, focus on customer, social and environmental responsibility "that make up the financial and non - financial perspectives , operational and environmental for balanced performance. The strategic audit through diagnostics and performance review is an important and strategic tool for the development of important strategic and organizational performance improvement, particularly municipal performance units and departments of the Municipality of Baghdad and the advancement of the level of services and projects submitted Baghdadi citizen, who is the ultimate and most important goal of the Municipality. The sample of 55 director and unit responsible at various levels of departments and sections , distributing a court questionnaire by 14 academically experts and consists of 50 fifty paragraph covers ten, five for each of the independent variable and responding variable included general information and test variables and dimensions of their answers are designed according to dimensions Quintet Likert scale. The questionnaire was distributed in a way intentional - quota sample according to ratio 1/2/3/4 , in addition to the use of personal interviews style bouquet comprised of 12 managers and officials in Baghdad Municipality at various levels in order to obtain data and information enriches research and enhance its methodology on the field in parallel with the questionnaire.The descriptive analytical method has been adopted which combined the description the situation analyze and draw conclusions from their own in determining the relationships between the strategic audit and organizational performance and their dimensions, and identify indicators in the surveyed organization in terms of the statistical correlation coefficient Pearson as well as statistical other means such as percentages, and the arithmetic mean, standard deviation and simple regression coefficient, with the use of advanced statistical software SPSS to test and analyze the hypotheses relationship and the impact between research variables. The research found a set of conclusions, notably that the strategic audit actively contributes to the strategic decision - making and performance evaluation and enable management to identify imbalances and to find the necessary solutions to them, and that the Municipality is rich with ready - made expertise to supplement its organs and the development of their overall performance on all the levels which requires direct and agitated by the leadership of the Municipality consciously with development projects, business and the delivery of services to the Baghdadi - citizen , where data confirmed that the management of the Municipality does not usually respond to emergency variables which negatively affect the stages of performance implementation, and doubles the risk and aggravate the emergence of crises , it also causes the curb and weaken the tendency to adaptation with environmental factors and circumstances.

ادارة مخاطر اسعار الصرف باستعمال ادوات التحوط المالي والتشغيلي : دراسة تحليلية لعدد من الشركات متعددة الجنسية مايكروسفت ونوكيا وتويوتا موتر وانتيل وكوكا كولا == Exchange Rate Risk Management By Financial And Operational Hedging An Applied Study

Author name: اعتصام جابر عبد الرضا الشكرجي
Supervisor name: محمد علي ابراهيم العامري
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يسعى البحث الحالي الى تحقيق هدف رئيس يتمثل في اختبار اثر استخدام ادوات التحوط المالي والتشغيلي في تخفيض مخاطر اسعار الصرف او تحييدها، اذ تمثل هذه المخاطر معظلة فكرية شكلت محور اهتمام الباحثين في مجال المالية الدولية لصعوبة تحديد الاثر النهائي لتقلبات قيم | The chief purpose of this study is to investigate the ability to reduce the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on firm value , by employing appropriate hedging strategies to provide the firms force to adopted with complex and highly uncertainty conditions , characteristic of the most of the financial markets The simple of this study is the giant fife Multinational on the world ,as the last rating with unique and highly performance ,and by implementing many of financial and statistics models to computation the necessary features to measuring & managing exchange rate exposure and its effects on firm value. A practical analysis is provide the truth of all study's hypothesis , and it is reach to many of conclusion, the most important of them are : : 1.The change rate of real exchange rate is less than the change rate of nominal exchange rate ,cause the RER is offset by foreign and local relative prices f on long rune 2. Stem from unexpected fluctuation on nominal exchange rate , asymmetric transaction exposure 3. Stem from unexpected fluctuation on real exchange rate , Asymmetric operational exposure. 4. All of, even the Multinational with unique and highly performance, exposes to nominal and real exchange rate risk.5. Result from uses of currency derivative ,reduce of transaction exposure.6. Stem from increased of foreign actions ,the proxy is foreign sales to total sales, access on exchange rate exposure.7.Result from uses of operational hedging , decrease of operational risk of exchange rate.8. The integration of financial and operational hedging are reducing exchange rate risk effectively and increase the firm value. 9. There is significant and strong relation among financial and operational hedging and firm value.10. There is effect of Firm - specific characteristics ,as size , liquidity, profitability and Firm debt on exchange rate exposure and firm value.

تصميم وتقييم اداء انموذجي سلسلتي التجهيز الكفوءة والمستجيبة باستخدام المحاكاة : دراسة حالة لعينة من منتجات الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية == Designing And Evaluating The Performance of Efficient And Responsive Supply Chains By Using Simulation

Author name: اصفاد مرتضى سعيد الحديثي
Supervisor name: صباح مجيد سعيد النجار
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تشير الدراسات الحديثة في مجال ادارة العمليات الى تزايد مستوى الاهتمام بسلسلة التجهيز مفهوما وادارة ومكونات مع دعوات مستمر لتبني مفهوم السلسلة في التعامل مع ادارة العمليات بشكل خاص ومنظمات الاعمال بشكل عام، وقد اثمر هذا الاهتمام عن ظهور العديد من نماذج سل | The recent study in the field of operation management indicate that there is increasing in interest level with the concept , management , and components of supply chain with continuously invitations to adopt the chain concept in dealing particularly with operation management and Generally with business organizations. this interest yielded a number of supply chain models , but the adoption of one model more than other relates with what competitive goals can this model achieves for the organization , and that is encourage the searcher to adopt efficient and responsive supply chain models to study them. The efficient chain aims to reduce the cost in every stage of its stages, and the responsive chain put fast delivery as a primary competitive goals for it. In according with that and through field cohabiting of supply chain processes in vegetarian public company particularly for detergents and soaps ( study sample) , the searcher pointed several problems in these two chains, the most important are the problem in supply processes and suppliers choice standards which based on political standards away from the competitive standards , and that is caused constant deficiency in raw materials because of the delay in supply processes , and also limited production capacity because of exhausted machines and equipments in facing high and increasing demand for study sample products. All these reason create problems in the distribution and sales processes because of the limited response for the demand and high stock out cost represent by sales loosing cost. For these reasons the study aims to design two models of supply chain, that are the efficient and responsive, and for each study sample products, and tests there performance , then choosing the best model. The searcher depended on case study approach to analyze and evaluate the performance of present supply chains and Monte Carlo simulation to design both chain models, using EXCEL software. By using the means of the five experiments results of the simulation for both models that relate with quantity of production, costs , sourcing intervals , and profits , responsive chain indicated clear superiority in its performance for detergents product, therefore the searcher recommend to adopting responsive supply chain model for this product. While for soaps product and although that the means of the production quantity , cost , and sourcing intervals indicated the distinction of the responsive chain , the profits assured the superiority of the efficient chain , so in this case the searcher recommends choosing the chain that appropriates for the company's strategy.

مدى فاعلية نظام التخطيط، البرمجة، الموازنة وانعكاسه على النظام المحاسبي الحكومي : دراسة تطبيقية في وزارة التعليم العالي والبحث العلمي == The Effeciency of Planning - Programming Budgeting System And Its Reflection On Governmental Accounting System

Author name: اشواق عبد الرحمن عبد الوهاب الشيخلي
Supervisor name: ماهر موسى العبيدي
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Generally, it could be said that the development witnessed in the last decades of twentieth century has turned the budget from just a financial plan for expenses and resources through a limited time framework trying to coordinate between them, into other state the budget represents tool for planning, coordination, motivation, communication, control and performance evaluation.Budget planning and excution method; the participation of various managerial levels in this process; the necessary information in their nature and resources for this process; the required communications, and the purposes tried to be achieved of various budget process, all these form a framework to what is considered ((the used budget model)). Knowing the budget objectives by managers as (inputs) and the information about how much they are achieved (feedback) will give the managers a base representing in measuring efficiency and diagnozing difficulties. In additionto that reaching the budget objectives to the low levels willmake the employees of good awareness of what the management wants in one hand , and in other hand through reports handled from the low levels to other high levels , the employees achievements and their times will be known through the advanced planning and preparation process, and of knowing the achievements, the management can get an important tool in the field of employees motivation and encouragement.Political , economic and social development occurred in our country through the previous three decades could make one concludes that most economic managerial and financial issues that need to be handled lay in the budget; that is because of the background in the foundations of public budget planning and preparation which makes this tool (the budget) a routine method is no longer capable of contributing in developing the efficiency of governmental units (managements).Depending on what is previously mensioned, this study aims to state the range of the efficiency of budget, programming and planning system and its reflection on the governmental accounting system and testing by applying in the ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research.The study consists of six chapters.The first devoted to show the research Methodlogy and the previous studies through its two sections.The second chapter is allocated to study the public budget and its techniques planning throhgh its three sections.The third is allocated to study the governmental accounting sty tem through its three sectious.The fourth is devoted to show.The reflection of the P.P.B.S on the governmental accounting through its three sections.The fifth is allocated to the practial side of the study through its three sections.The sixth chapter summarized the major conclusions and presented some recommendations that relate to the study area through its two sections.

تقدير معولية الانظمة باستعمال مقدرات بيز اللامعلمية وشبه المعلمية مع تطبيق عملي == System’s Reliability Using Nonparametric And Semi Parametric Bayesian Estimators With Practical Application

Author name: اسيل محمود شاكر السهيل
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر المعولية اداة لتقييم الاداء الوظيفي لاي منتج خلال فترة حياته وتعتمد على ظروف عمل ووقت وبيئة محددة وهي من المستلزمات الاساسية في العملية الانتاجية، وتنبع الاهمية الكبيرة للمعولية كونها تلائم اغلب التطبيقات العملية والمتمثلة بالمعدات والاجهزة العا | The reliability as tool to estimate the work performance of any product during its life cycle, it depends on restricted conditions of work and the time and environment of work, also it considers as essential requirement in the production, the most significant important of reliability represented of being fit for the most of practical applications such as equipment and invalid devices which can fix and get maintenance in case it stopped of work then return it to work again. These devices and equipment consider as correlation between a group of parts or components to form what it is called “system” , there are any kinds of systems classified according to the way that components are connected such as k - out of - n which is ready to work if at least one of k components is working, and “Series system” which is ready to work if all of its components are working , also there is another kind of system its work just in case one of its components is working and this called “Parallel System”. Therefore , the aim of thesis focuses on estimating the reliability of systems (k - out of - n, series and parallel system ) by nonparametric and semi parametric methods using Dirichlet process prior and compare it with reliability of system values by classical methods which is represented by Kernel estimator method , Kaplan - meier estimator method and product limit estimator method to illustrate the quality using statistical indicator Integral Mean Square Error (IMSE) , in additional modified methods. So the simulation procedures to create using different sizes of samples , then applying the best method for Series system on the real data which collected in Al - Mamon factory which belong to general company for plant oil production - Aluminum department the results showed that the reliability function values start decreasing with increasing time in relation to the estimated nonparametric and semi parametric , this means that machines has many invalid because the more invalid in machines cusses to decreasing it reliability

مقارنة بين طرائق تحليل وتنبؤ السلاسل الزمنية وتطبيقها على مبيعات الشركة العامة لتوزيع كهرباء بغداد == Comparative Studies Among The Methods of Analysis And Forecasting Time Series With Application On Electricity Sales In Baghdad City

Author name: اسيل سمير محمد محمود
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد التنبؤ بالسلوك المستقبلي للسلاسل الزمنية من الموضوعات الهامة في العلوم الاحصائية، وذلك للحاجة اليه في مجالات الحياة جميعا، مثل التنبؤ بالحالة الجوية ودرجات الحرارة، حالة السوق والاسعار، تدفق المياه، واستهلاك الطاقة الكهربائية. وقد تزايد الاهتم | Forecasting of future behavior of time series is one of the important subjects in statistical science, because of its need in the different fields of life, like forecasting of weather state and air temperature market state and price water flow consumption electrical power, in the recent years there is an increased interesting in forecasting, and some new techniques like Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Trend Sets. These techniques are able for learning and self - adaptation with any model, and don’t need assumption on the natural of time series. On the other side, the classical forecasting methods like Box - Jenkins method, exponential smoothing and adaptive filtering need certain conditions. A condensed study was done to compare between ordinary methods, namely; Box & Jenkins, ES, and Adaptive Filtering with modern methods namely; ANN, and Fuzzy Trend Set, where some new results are obtained and new method was proposed. A raw data electrical power in Baghdad city is used to perform this comparison through the application of the two programs Statistica and Matlab. From the practical application it found that proposed method gives better and more efficient results than others.

ايجاد التوزيع الثنائي المشترك باعتماد دوال رابطة مختلفة مع تطبيق في المجال الحيوي == Finding Bivirate Distribution By Using Different Copula'S Functions With Application In Biotical Field

Author name: اسماعيل هادي جلوب
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تتلخص الدراسة على كيفية ايجاد التوزيع الثنائي الاسي المشترك من خلال دالة الرابطة وقد طبق ذلك على رابطة plackett حيث تم اقتراح رابطة جديدة من التعديل الرياضي الذي تم على تلك الرابطة , حيث تم اجراء المقارنات بين رابطة plackett والرابطة المقترحة والمقدر المع | The limit of our the research we choosing the copula function to finding probability joint distribution and application it on plackett copula to finding exponential joint bivariate distribution. The research introduce the method for obtaining a modified plackett's copula ,and also modification for the estimator of proposed copula function, also using simulation for different values of sample size , all the result and comparison using BAISE,RMSE,AIC,BIC are explained through special tables we show that the results in the suggest copula is better for all cases, We do the practical on suggest copula for the data obtained from central child hospital - ministry of Iraqi health which consist the data about Total Serum Bilrubn (T.S.B) and Park Cell Volume (P.C.V).

تاثير كل من العدالة والثقة المنظمية في الاحتراق النفسي للعاملين : دراسة استطلاعية لاراء لعينة من العاملين في وزارة التعليم العالي والبحث العلمي == The Effect of Organizational Justice &Trust On Employees Burnout : Applied Study For Opinions Sample of Employees In Ministry of Higher Education And Scientific Research

Author name: اسماء طه نوري الشكرجي
Supervisor name: عبد الرزاق ابراهيم عباس الشيخلي
Specific topic: General Administration
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Not hidden to any one the problems that the employees in the public sector sustain and threaten which they face, that affected in form or another on their personal and practical life in addition to work environment conditions and their characteristics which have direct or indirect effect on the employees psyche and abilities on the performing of the task invested there with and thus, Not hidden to any one the problems that the employees in the public sector sustain and the threats which they faces, that affects in form or another on their personal and practical life in addition to work environment conditions and its characteristics which have direct or indirect effect on the employees psychology and there abilities to perform the task that they given it, The present study concerns with knowing the relationship between three basic variables, two of them are independent (Organizational Justice and Organizational Trust), and the third variable (Employees Burnout) which was dependent variable, to diagnose the effect level that the first practices one the second. The study depends on five main hypotheses and other branch hypotheses, tested by nonparametric analytic, statistic methods and it uses the questionnaire method o gather data from a sample consists of (140) professionals who are working in Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research center. The study reaches to a group of results, the important one was decreasing of study variables levels, and this is a Goode indication regarding the dependent variable (employees Burnout) in comparison with the two independent variables (Organizational Justice and Organizational Trust) which their level retreating has clear effect absolutely on the employees and the Organization under study, as well as the result’s emphasizing of significant relationship between tem, the matter that increases their size but what lessens the severity of these results is the non existence of any significant effect on employees burnout whose dimensions indicators are weak between the affiliates of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. The study has many recommendations concerning the Ministry under study as wall as a number of suggestions in the hope of contributing in illuminating he rood of researchers concerned wit the subject and developing the study about it.

مفهوم الانصاف في المحاسبة واثره في عملية الابلاغ المالي : دراسة تحليلية وميدانية لانموذج ومستخدمي التقارير المالية بالعراق == Fairness Concept In Accounting & Its Effect On Discloser Process An Analytical & Empirical Study For Model & Users of Iraqi'S Financial Reports

Author name: اسكوهي اوانيس اوهانيس بدروسيان
Supervisor name: عامر محمد سلمان الجنابي
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Accounting literature divided into two basic schools, the first one normative school concern with normative concepts such as ethics & social concepts, and concentrate on value implications statements so determining objectives became its core by determining and interpretation the needs of accounting information users. While positive school concentrate on empirical continuity for accounting being a discipline of formal education with concentrating on neutral presentation of accounting events and its discloser.It become clear that those accounting information users are the essences of both schools, by fulfilling there information needs under value standards in the first school, and by reflecting practical reality for them in neutral way without preferring some users over the others.Accounting is a social science because it is an art needs skills like law and medicine, as well as it is a science verify the credibility of the objective like law and economics. Therefore accounting is a social science in being interacting with the environment and in being part of it via inducing actual study and formulating generalizations about observed phenomena, and relating accounting procedures used to create accounting information with social principles to produce accounting principles such as fairness which support objectivity (principle) through being unbiased (procedure) as well as serving most of financial reports users. This was suggested by D. R. Scott, he is one of the first who call for fairness in 1941 : “accounting rules, procedures and techniques must be fair and unbiased and must not serve special purposes”, through this it became “value statement”.Fairness concept started to take its place in accounting literature orderly via professionals and academics studies. The monograph published in 1960 by Arthur Anderson & Co. about fairness mention that “fairness is basic accounting postulate that underlay accounting principles, fairness to all society segments, management, employees, shareholders, creditors, customers, and the public so that it is unified and measured under economic and political environment, conceptual pattern and norms of all segments to reach the target that accounting principles based on this postulate will produce financial accounting for economical rights and stakes legitimately established which it is fair to all segments.” Later Patillo positioned fairness as the basic standard used to evaluate other standards because it is the only standard that implies ethical considerations, when Patillo wanted to relate ideas such as justice, real, and fair with the objectives of financial reporting results which concentrate on the stakes of different parties in economy. According to Cowan that Patillo's opinion represents the American concept for fairness and the British sees fairness as distinguished, obvious, unequivocal, representation of facts.In return others like S. C. Yu & Harold Arnett called for impossibility of making fairness a measure or a framework to accounting principles for different reasons such as the disagreement on a clear concept for fairness idiom by the accountants, and the difference in the meaning of fairness concept among the reacceptances, as well as the difficulty to measure fairness effect. Between supporters and opponents ethical concepts including fairness still have clear effect in accounting, that researcher can not determine their subject, methodology, postulates and experimental means without implying value concepts.This study based on idea aims to clarify the meaning of fairness concept to become easier to include it within accounting standard and rules, and studying the effect of the ethical concept over some of the international and local financial disclosure applications.The most important theoretical conclusion is that fairness considered value concept means unbiased and objectivity in dealing with the company stakeholders specially the externals, via fulfilling useful, reliable, relevance accounting information. Fairness means the same as justice and different from just, because the latter means the abstract application to laws and rules without taking into considerations the circumstances relating to the subject of study.

تاثير التضخم المستهدف والناتج المحتمل في السياسة النقدية للعراق == Impact of Inflation And Potential Output In The Monetary Policy In Iraq

Author name: اسراء عبد فرحان
Supervisor name: محمود محمد محمود داغر
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهتم السياسة النقدية اهتماما كبيرا بتحقيق الاستقرار النقدي، من خلال رسم السياسة المؤثرة والمسيطرة على كمية النقود، والهادفة الى تحقيق الاستقرار في المستوى العام للاسعار وتحقيق التشغيل عند المستوى المحتمل للناتج وتحقيق النمو الاقتصادي، وصولا الى ادنى فج | Recent years monetary policy more focused on monetary stability goal , through the drawing influencing policy and controlling the quantity of money and aimed at achieving stability in the general level of prices and achievement of operating when the potential level of output and economic growth, reach the lowest output gap as well as with cross - target cash economy minimization of inflation gap.This study deals with the relationship between inflation and economic growth and estimating product gap of the Iraqi economy duration (1990 - 2014).Iraq's economy is suffering from an approximately complete separation between the monetary sector and the real sector, because of the absence of control mechanism after transmission of monetary policy to the real economy through controlling inflation at its target with a nominal anchor of monetary policy.Monetary policy is working in the Iraqi economy in the absence of the actual use of this potential output in the case that has been estimated, as well as attempting to estimate gap (inflation and output) and analysis of their direction and their impact on monetary policy. The researcher attempt to measure the relationship between the two gap and the nominal anchor.For checking which nominal anchor more accurate we used a model of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Estimate ARDL and test the Bound test to test the joint integration and the relationship of long and short - term between the variables under study, as well as induced response to test the relationship between the variables that measure the impact of the trauma suffered by the internal variable in the VAR model on the current and future values of other internal variables in the model function analysis conclusions reached the ineffectiveness of interest rate anchor nominal monetary policy to target inflation and the output of the Iraqi economy during the period of study, as well as the effectiveness of the exchange rate in effect at the gap (inflation and output).

قياس وتحليل دالة الطلب على الواردات الزراعية في العراق للمدة 1980 - 2010 == Measuring And Analyzing The Demand Function For Agricultural Imports In Iraq For The Period 1980 - 2010

Author name: اسراء سليم كاطع الربحاوي
Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد الموضوعات المتعلقة بالتجارة الخارجية مجالا واسعا للمناقشات واهتمام الاقتصاديين وذلك لاسهامها الفاعل في عملية التنمية الاقتصادية في اقتصاديات الدول لاسيما النامية منها. ويشكل جانب الواردات من السلع والخدمات في التجارة الخارجية جزءا مهما للاقتصاد المح | Foreign trade captures the interest of economists for its contribution to the process of economic development, especially in developing countries. In addition, imports of goods and services constitute an important section in foreign trade by which a country gets what local economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Hence, the measurement and analysis of the demand function of agricultural imports in Iraq gain special significance due to the reliance of the Iraqi economy on foreign trade to secure many agricultural products.In this work, the demand function for agricultural imports in Iraq has been estimated through the technique of auto - regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the bounds test to measure and analyze the co - integration for long and short - run relationships among the demand for agricultural imports, relative prices, GDP, and foreign reserves. In addition, the relationship between the variables has been tested through the technique of impulse response function (IRF), which measures the impact of a shock on an internal variable on the current and future values of the other internal variables in the VAR model.This thesis includes three chapters, each containing several studies, in addition to a preface, the goal of the study, and a literature review. Chapter 1 introduces an economic framework of the theory of demand in two sections, one about the concept of demand and the factors influencing it and the other on international trade and its relationship to demand in different economic systems. Chapter 2 dicusses the reality and evolution of agricultural foreign trade in Iraq for the period 1980 - 2010. Finally, Chapter 3 introduces the econometric analysis for the demand on agricultural imports and their determinants using the ARDL model and the IRF. The statistical analysis has been performed using EViews 8 and Microfit 5.It has been found that the increase of total and agricultural imports for the interval 1980 - 2010, especially after the year 2003. It has also been found that the average compound annual growth of total and agricultural imports for the same interval is positive with an amount of 5.4% for total imports and 3.6% for agricultural imports. The relative importance of food imports has been found to constitute 99% of total agricultural imports, whereas that for the means of production is very small ranging from 4.4% in 1980 to 0.3% in 2010. On the other hand, short - term elasticity shows an increment of 1% in relative prices causes a decrease in the demand on agricultural imports by 24%. In addition, an increase of 1% in GDP and foreign reserve leads to an increase in the demand on agricultural imports by 19.16%. Furthermore, long - term elasticity that a relative price increment of 1% leads to a reduced demand on agricultural imports by 42%. The IRF shows that a change in relative prices of 1% leads to reducing the demand on agricultural imports by 20% in the second year then it increase to reach 36% in the tenth year, while a change in GDP of 1% leads to an increase in the demand on agricultural imports by 3% in the second year then it decreases to 5% in the tenth year. And, a change of 1% in foreign reserve increases the demand on agricultural import by 9% starting from the third year, reaching up to 17% in the tenth year. Accordingly, it is concluded that the relative prices play an important role in determining the demand on agricultural imports.This study recommends the necessity of setting forth agricultural policies to protect and develop the national product through the support of prices and the means of production, and limiting the impact of agricultural imports on national products in terms of quality and price. Furthermore, it is recommended to activate imports - related trade policies such as customs tariff, for the sake of supporting the national product and increasing the contribution of the agricultural sector in the making of the GDP

قياس وتحليل تاثير صدمات السياسة المالية على بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية في العراق للمدة 1990 - 2014 == Measure And Analyze The Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks On Some Macroeconomic Variables In Iraq For The Period 1990 - 2014

Author name: اسراء سعيد صالح العبيدي
Supervisor name: محمد صالح سلمان الكبيسي
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تؤثر الصدمات الاقتصادية الخارجية بشكل مباشر على المتغيرات المالية في الدول المصدرة للسلع الاساسية الاولية لاسيما الدول النفطية منها، ويرجع ذلك الى وجود ارتباط قوي بين الموازنة العامة والتجارة الخارجية في هذه الدول، فتستجيب السياسة المالية عبر ادواتها الان | External economic shocks directly affect the financial variables in developing countries, especially those related to oil, due to the existence of a strong correlation between the general budget and foreign trade in these countries, fiscal policy responds through public spending and public revenue is a concurrence or counter to the trend of economic shock, and reflected that response macroeconomic variables relevant in unexpected changes can be expressed in fiscal policy shocks.This study, in your hands I have focused on the measurement and analysis of the impact of shocks, fiscal policy on some macro - economic variables in Iraq, came to focus on this aspect of faith researcher believing absolutely that fiscal policy plays a key role in the national economy, In terms of its ability to allocate resources between economic sectors, or through its Impact on the use of resources, and therefore its impact on aggregate demand levels, moreover, its impact on incomes Through government - provided social grants and expenses which increase in frequency during the exposure to economic shocks, if the affected fiscal policy, both on the side of public expenditures and / or the public revenues to external economic shocks will be reflected in all economic sectors, so the study will try to build a standard model for measuring the impact of Fiscal policy shocks in Some of macroeconomic variables.

استخدام توزيعي بيتا والاسي في تقدير معالمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي == Use of Beta & Exponential Distributions To Estimate The Parameters of The Linear Regression Model

Author name: اسامة محمد جاسم القصاب
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تبقى عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج الانحدار من المواضيع المهمة رغم كثرة ما كتب عنها من خلال البحوث والدراسات وهذه الدراسات تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير سواء كان هذا الاسلوب تقليدي او بيزي او تبعا للتوزيعات التي يتم توظيفها في عملية التق | the process of estimating the parameters of regression model , is still still one of the important subjects despite of the large number of papers and studies written in this subject , these studies are differ in techniques followed in the process of estimation , whether they are classic or baysian , or according to the distributions applied in the estimation , and which are available about some of the parameters of regression model.In this thesis , two different distributions are applied ( Beta , Exponential )in estimating different sample sizes and then making a comparison among the classic estimation techniques represented by (OLS) method , and the method of applying one distribution or two (u.d) , and the baysian methods by providing the distributions themselves.By using the simulation technique , results has been obtained to provide the researcher with the image to clarify the best method in the estimation technique.This thesis come in four chapters : The first chapter contains the introduction and the background of the subject.The second chapter contains the theoretical basis of the estimation methods, when one or two distribution are applied in estimation technique whether is the classic or baysian method, it also contains all that related to derivation process to obtains the estimation style.The third chapter contains , a display of the practical side and also a display of the results of the simulation process used to reach to the best techniques of estimation.Finally, the forth chapter contains the conclusions and recommendation as well as future studies.
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