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عوامل البيئة الداخلية وانعكاسها في عملية تقييم اداء العاملين : بحث ميداني == Internal Environment Factors And It'S Reflection In Employees Performance Appraisal Process A Field Research

Author name: ثامر ياسر حسين الغزي
Supervisor name: عبد الرحمن مصطفى طه الملا
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Performance Evaluation
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The current research addressed " Internal Environment Factors and it's Reflection in Employees Performance Appraisal Process " where the aim of the research is to reveal the nature and level of the internal environment factors and the reality of the Performance Appraisal Process in the ministry surveyed (Oil Ministry) and the reflection of the internal environment factors in the Performance Appraisal of employees Process in the ministry for this purpose formulated two main hypotheses of the search, the first there is a correlation relationship refers to moral and positive guidance between the two variables Internal environmental factors (organizational structure, organizational culture, leadership style) and the Employees Performance Appraisal Process of dimensions (Standards for the performance Appraisal, methods of performance Appraisal, feedback, Impediments for the performance Appraisal) and the second main hypothesis refers to be impact is moral guidance for the internal environment factors in the Employees Performance Appraisal Process , to achieve the tests of these two hypothesis the research used the style of comprehensive inventory that include all heads of departments in the ministry who numbered (52) department head and the rate of response was (100%), and used the resolution as an essential tool For data and information were complete data collection through field visits by the researcher interviews and some official documents, and data analysis was used (SPSS) program through which was obtained percentages and frequencies, and test Alva kronbach, and the coefficient of simple linear correlation (Spearmen) and simple linear regression to test the validity of hypotheses above and other analyzes have been used to test the research hypotheses were also used a number of statistical methods for data processing the most important of the arithmetic mean and standard deviation and the relative importance for the purpose of description answers the research sample, were used the style (Factor Analysis) in order to analyze the good paragraphs which will involve under scale search and what is the dimension to which they belong, and I've found search to a set of conclusions that the most important of all correlations statistical results between the internal environment factors and the process of evaluating the performance of employees was strong and significance , also the relationship impact have a moral guidance, in the conclusion the research concluded in a set of recommendations involving the interest in the human resource management and increasing consciousness and attention to the Performance Appraisal Process within the ministry

تقييم اداء الخدمة الصحية من وجهة نظر المستفيدين : بحث في عدد من الاجنحة الخاصة للمستشفيات الحكومية == Evaluating The Performance of The Health Service From The Perspective of The Beneficiaries,Research In A Number of Private Suites To Government Hospitals

Author name: ثامر كريم محمد العبودي
Supervisor name: عبد الرحمن مصطفى طه الملا
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى التعرف على مستوى الخدمات الصحية المقدمة في الاجنحة الخاصة للمستشفيات الحكومية من وجهة نظر متلقي الخدمة الصحية (المريض) وذلك من خلال التعرف عن مدى رضاه عن مجموعة من الابعاد التي لها تماس مباشر مع المريض والتي يستطيع ان يحكم عليها بسهولة وحيا | This research aims to identify the level of health services provided in private suites to government hospitals from the perspective of the recipients of the health service (patient)Through the recognition of how satisfied a set of variables that have a direct contact with the patient, which can be judged easily and impartial, where he was reliance in this research mainly on the questionnaire, which included six presidental variables providing to assess health services from the point of view patients (easiness of residence, social and behavioral characteristics, and hotel properties, and administrative features, efficient staffs working, general considerations) has been taking a random sample of (125 ) patients of the patients admitted in private suites distributed over a group of hospitals in Baghdad (the private nursing home hospital, Ibinalbalady hospital, Kadhimiya Teaching Hospital) was Tzemin Find a set of questions that reflect collectively on the problem of the search, and then determine the goals of the research and its importance, as well as formulate hypotheses major research derived from each of six hypotheses subsidiary was searched and verified using a combination of modern statistical methods and modern study found a number of important conclusions about the reality of the health service in private suites and most important of these conclusions is the weakness in the level of services provided in their own wing of the point of patients consider that there are significant moral correlation between all approved study variables in the evaluation and the patient satisfaction, except for administrative properties variable, it turns out that there are significant differences between the studied hospitals in the application of those variables differences, and this is proof that each hospital special direction in Dealing with these variables and its applications supposed to be uniform in all hospitals, while the most important recommendations that came out of research they need to set clear goals strategy concerning the work of the private suites take in consideration patients view for services rendered and the establishment of an integrated hospitals operate private suites system separated from the public sector to improve the level of health services to improve the image when the beneficiaries of these services.

تاثير المعلومات المحاسبية المضللة على تقويم نظام الرقابة الداخلية == Effect of Misleading Accounting Information To Evaluate Internal Control System

Author name: تيسير محمد جمعة الفلاحي
Supervisor name: صفوان قصي عبد الحليم الطه
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان سلسلة الازمات الاقتصادية والمالية التي شهدها الاقتصاد العالمي ادت الى زيادة الوعي باهمية الرقابة الداخلية , لانه يعد احد الدعائم الرئيسية في اي وحدة اقتصادية, اذ انه يعمل وفق مجموعه من الخطوات والاجراءات المتعلقة بالقوانين واجراءات حماية الموجودات من ا | That the economic and financial crises in the world economy series led to increased awareness of the importance of internal control system, because it is one of the main pillars of any economic unit, as it works to verify the application of policies and regulations and Laws and verification of asset protection from theft and embezzlement procedures, also works imparted confidence on accounting information through validation of accounting information, analysis and discovery of the misleading. The of the internal control system a factor in many of the accounting practices that limit the ability of the administration to produce misleading financial reporting.The research aims to the relationship between the accounting system and internal control system, and the concept of misleading accounting information statement and identify the factors that lead to misleading accounting information, as well as detect misinformation in accounting information and correlate it with the results of the evaluation of the internal control system. Where questionnaires to discover the strength and weakness of internal control system in detecting deception practices in accounting information, additionally analyzed reports of the external auditor for the sample companies To detect misinformation , As it has been the use of a set of statistical methods for analysis of relevant variables Find information and test hypotheses, including the percentages and the weighted samples t test for average calculations to test the relationship between the (FFS and NON - FFS) for each account. After the test the research hypotheses study found a set of conclusions, represented the most important of the following : .1. Through the analysis of the reports of the external auditor found no obligation sample companies search the local accounting rules, including accounting rule number (5) Inventory and accounting rule (4) accounting for the effects of the change in foreign exchange rates which affected the validity of the balances shown in the financial statements.2. through a simple linear regression results turned out that most of the accounts has no effect on the appearance of misleading accounting information (sales, total assets, working capital, debtors , inventory, total debt) Research presented a number of recommendations, : 1. Assessment of the internal control system continuously according to the external auditor's observations and that it contributes to reducing practices that result in misinformation and reporting, and ensuring the operation of the internal audit committee help to identify existing strengths and weaknesses in the internal control system for the purpose of processing.2. The need for coordination between the departments of companies productivity and financial oversight that would assist in the performance of internal oversight work better, work on comparisons with similar companies to exchange ideas and solutions to problems.

تصميم الترتيب الداخلي الافضل للمصنع باستعمال تقنية التخصيص النسبي المحوسب للتسهيلات (CRAFT) : بحث تطبيقي في الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية / مصنع المامون == The Design of Optimal Layout Using Computerized Relative Allocation of Facilities Technique (CRAFT) - Applied Research In Al - M'Ammon Factory / The General Company For Vegetable Oils Industry

Author name: تبارك محمود شكر الجبوري
Supervisor name: ايثار عبد الهادي ال فيحان المعموري | احمد زيدان محمد الشمري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Industrial Management
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ستند هذا البحث, على تصميم وتطبيق برنامج (تقنية) (CRAFT), بغية اعادة تخصيص مراكز عمل مصنع المامون / الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية, لارتفاع كلف المناولة بين مراكز العمل التي تصل الى (63,026) دينار / اليوم, وطول المسافة الخطية المقطوعة بين مراكز العمل | This research based on design and application a program (Technique) (CRAFT), in order to Re - allocation work centers of (Al - M'ammon Factory / The General Company for Vegetable Oils Industry), the high handling costs that reach to (63,026) dinars / day, and length of the distance travelled between work centers which up to (21,778) m / day. The research aims to reach to optimal layout of the factory. In order to reduce the handling costs and reduce the distance travelled between work centers to a minimum, The technique was applied in two stages : - Stage 1 : - Apply (CRAFT) technique according to the initial layout.Stage 2 : - Apply (CRAFT) technique according to the proposed layout reaching to the optimum layout. The results of these layouts has obtained from these two stages, compared with the result evaluation of the initial layout of the factory. As well as, compare the result obtained from the first stage with the result obtained from the second stage, in order to obtain optimum layout of the factory. After procedure these comparisons, optimal layout achieved for the factory from the second stage. Being reduce the costs of material handling rate (22.6%) of the total handling costs for initial layout. As well as reduce (19.2%) of the total distance for initial layout.The research found a set of conclusions. The most important weakness of the efficiency of the initial factory layout, Which turn causes the wasting and losing of a lot of time and effort jacks and persons who transfer materials, and increasing the overall time of production, is produced in the loss of the factory because of high material handling costs between work centers. This research concluded with several recommendations, the most important work on the application of the new layout, which obtained from the application of technique (CRAFT) in the second stage.

تقدير دالة المعوليـة لتوزيع لوغارتيم الطبيعي مع تطبيق عملي == Estimate of Reliability Function For Lognormal Distribution With Practical Application

Author name: بلسم مصطفى شفيق النائب
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم | فرحان اسماعيل العاني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد كان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد في دراسة موضوع المعولية في السنوات الاخيرة يعود الى التطور التكنولوجـي والتقني السريـع واستخدام الانظمـة الالكترونية المعقـدة في مختلف المجالات. وعليه فان دراسة موضوع المعولية والربط بين الجانبين النظري والتطبيقي امر له | The studies of the subject - matter of Reliability with connecting between theoretical and application sides , it is an important matter now a days because the technology development with using electronic systems.In this study it is used the Lognormal Distribution as a failure models when the failure rate to these models initially increases over time and then decreases approaching Zero with increasing time , and find out the estimators of reliability function by different methods.The estimates are : 1. Maximum Likelihood Estimation.2. Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator.3. Bayes Estimation.And then comparing between the priorities of the estimates through using the Monte - Carlo method and conducting several experiments using Mean Square Error.Generally result show that Maximum Likelihood Estimation to estimate Reliability is better than the other methods , Regarding the practical aspect the data of life time for four machines from EIGC and found after using chi - Square test that the life time for test machines distribute Lognormal and the estimation of Reliability function for machines done using Maximum Likelihood Method

قياس تاثير نافذة بيع العملة على التغيرات في سعر الصرف وعرض النقود في العراق == Measure The Impact of Currency Auction On The Variability of The Exchange Rate & Money Supply In Iraq

Author name: بلال قاسم محمد حسن
Supervisor name: محمود محمد محمود داغر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الحالة الانتقالية التي عاشها الاقتصاد العراقي بعد 2003، والتحول في اتجاهات السياسة النقدية حديثا اثر حصول البنك المركزي على استقلاليته استنادا الى قانون 56 لعام 2004، ادت الى استخدام السلطة النقدية ادوات حديثة وبما يتناسب مع متطلبات التوجه نحو نظام السوق من جهة، والخصوصية التي يتصف بها الاقتصاد العراقي في ظل الاختلال الهيكلي الذي يعاني منه فضلا عن تخلف النظام المالي والمصرفي من جهة اخرى.اتبعت السلطة النقدية سياسة استهداف التضخم من اجل الحفاظ على الاستقرار النقدي في البلد وعده حاضنة للنمو المستقبلي ، واستخدمت من اجل تحقيق هدفها سعر الصرف مثبتا اسميا Nominal Anchor ، بسبب ريعية الاقتصاد والهشاشة المالية Shallowness وانفصال القطاع الحقيقي عن النقدي مما يجعل القنوات التقليدية لانتقال اثر السياسة النقدية (معدل الفائدة) غير فاعلة بنسبة كبيرة . واستخدمت السلطة النقدية نافذة بيع العملة الية للسيطرة على سعر الصرف والتحكم به (في ظل نظام صرف معلن de Jure نظام تعويم مدار ، ونظام صرفي حقيقي de facto ينقسم لمرحلتين الاولى 2004 - 2009 نظام تعويم مدار والثانية 2009 - 2015 نظام سعر صرف ثابت)، وبما يحقق هدف استقرار الاسعار. نجحت السلطة النقدية من خلال استعمال نافذة بيع العملة في السيطرة على سعر الصرف وتقليص فجوة الصرف بين السعر الرسمي والسعر الموازي، ومن ثم الحفاظ على سعر صرف مستقر نسبيا للمدة 2004 - 2015 وبالتالي استقرار الاسعار والقوة الشرائية في الاقتصاد .الا ان نجاح هذه الاداة كان على حساب الضغط على الاحتياطيات الدولية لدى البنك المركزي في ظل الانفاق الاستهلاكي الكبير من قبل الحكومة، مقابل تناقص عائدات النفط التي تمثل المصدر الوحيد لعرض العملة الاجنبية . مما يجعل سعر الصرف مستقبلا هو الاخر غير قادر على الحفاظ على استقرار الاسعار وخفض التضخم، بالتالي تصبح العملة العراقية مهددة بالانهيار . ولكنها تبقى الاداة الفاعلة الوحيده لدى السلطة النقدية في ظل الظروف الخاصة التي يعيشها الاقتصاد العراقي. | The transition states that Iraq economy lived it after 2003. And the change in tools used by monetary policy based on C.B.I law 56 in 2004, under the especially situation for the economy (structural imbalances and the weakness of banking & financial sector).The monetary policy followed the inflation target policy to keep the monetary stability in the economy and considered it an incubator for future growth. It used the exchange rate as a nominal anchor to achieve the goal (because the rentier of economy, finance Shallowness & separation between real sector and finance sector, all this cause the normal channel to transfer the effect of monetary policy (interest rate) ineffective.For all that the monetary policy used the Auction as a mechanism to effect on exchange rate. And it’s succeed to controls the exchange rate and reduce the gap between the official price and real price to keep the exchange rate relatively stable for period 2004 - 2015 down to the stability of prices & purchasing power.But the succeed of Auction caused pressure on international Reserves in the C.B.I under the big government expenditure (especially the consumption expenditure) compared to a decrease of oil return, which represent the only source to supply the foreign currency. That makes exchange rate in the future inactive to keep the stability in the price and decrease the inflation.But the Auction still the only active tool used by the monetary policy under the especially situation the Iraqi economies lived.

استخدام الصيانة الوقائية لتحقيق الميزة التنافسية : تصميم برنامج مقترح : دراسة حالة في الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية - معمل تموز للمكيفات == Using Preventive Maintenance To Achieve The Competitive Advantage : Designing Suggested Program A Case Study At General Company For Electric Industries/Tamouz Factory For Air Conditioners Manufacturing

Author name: بشرى صبيح كاظم
Supervisor name: صباح مجيد سعيد النجار | حيدر عبد حسن الجبوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Industrial Management
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان ازدياد حجم الاستثمارات في المنظمات الصناعية قد اعطى لوظيفة الصيانة اهمية بالغة بوصفها وسيلة تساهم في زيادة الانتاجية واطالة العمر الانتاجي للمكائن والمعدات كما انها تساعد في تحقيق المزايا التنافسية للشركة من خلال تخفيض الكلفة وتحسين الجودة والقدرة على

تقدير معلمات انموذج المعادلات الهيكلية المتضمن متغيرات الوساطة مع تطبيق عملي == Estimation of Structural Equations Model Parameters With Practical Application

Author name: بشرى سعد جاسم
Supervisor name: غفران اسماعيل كمال
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يستعمل تحليل الانحدار مع المتغيرات المصنفة الى صنفين صنف يمثل متغيرات مستقلة (Independent variables) واخر يمثل متغيرات تابعة (Dependent variables), فلذلك يقوم تحليل الانحدار بدراسة العلاقة بين المتغيرات المستقلة والمتغيرات التابعة, الا ان هذا التحليل يعمل | regression analysis use with classified variables into two class that represents the independent variables (Independent variables) and the other is a subsidiary variables (Dependent variables), for there the regression analysis study the relationship between independent and Dependent variables, but , this analysis works to know only the direct impact between the variables for this reason i use the structural equation Model (SEM) to identify and know the variables that are of indirect effects by estimating and testing parameters by set of methods (steps causal method, bootstrap method, method of multiplying the transaction ( parameters) product of coefficients, difference in coefficientsstructural equation model like other models are a matching variables tested with the phenomenon studied , test the compatibility of the variables that make up a structural equation model, and to achieve this condition, use Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) way to see match variables that compose it. After confirming the conformity of the model or suitability experimenting and having the effect of mediating variable in the model and mediation are two types : Single mediation where transmission of the influence of the independent variable to the dependent variable through the mediation of a single variable, and multiple mediation where is transition Effect independent variable x to the variable y through several mediation variables. the practical side of study include the effect of cultural stat of the man (X) in the use of violence against women (Y) through a series of mediation M_1variables represent (women's empowerment) and M_2represents (family planning) and the study data are taken from the integrated survey of social and health state for Iraqi women (I - WISH) for the year 2011 in the Ministry of planning - Central Statistics organazation, and this data applied conditions of adequate to structural equation model SEM and, and then estimate the parameters mediating variables and test their ability to move the indirect effect by the methods mentioned above using a program.AMOS V.23The researcher concluded that a moral mediation variables tested when using standard errors formulas for (Sobel and Goodman and Aroian) and compensated for in the test version of z all results be close itself in the other the researcher contrast were recommendations of the research is to use a single version of the standard errors formats (Sobel and Goodman and Aroian) to test the effect of mediating variables in the model, as the researcher found that the independent variable X (cultural condition of the man) affects the Y variable (violence against women) indirectly through mediation M_2variable (family) organization.

امكانية تطبيق متطلبات نظام الادارة البيئية واثرها في اداء العمليات : بحث تطبيقي في الشركة العامة لصناعة البطاريات == The Possibility of The Application of Environmental Management System Requirements And Their Impact On Operational Performance Applied Research In The General Company For The Manufacture of Batteries

Author name: بشرى حسين عبد عباس العجيلي
Supervisor name: سلوى هاني السامرائي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Industrial Management
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The research aims to test the effect of environmental management system (ISO 14001) in the performance of operations, effluents and pollutants that accompany operations of industrial organizations caused damage to various risks affect the environment and different levels depending on the nature of the industry. General Company for the manufacture of batteries with serious impact and damage to the environment and longer in order to move away Iraqi companies in general about the concept of the philosophy of environmental management system, which is a tool to improve environmental performance and thereby improve the performance of their production processes. On the basis of the problem that has been reflected a number of questions, most notably : 1. Does the officials and employees of the company under study envisions a clear concept of environmental management system and key paragraphs of Specification (ISO 14001).2. How can it be an effective environmental management system tool of Directors to improve the performance of the production processes.In light of this has been my thesis research two key link and influence of the environmental management system and operational performance mode, and designed a questionnaire to measure the variables of research and distributed to the 106 members of the staff of the General Company for the manufacture of batteries to form a research sample from diverse disciplines, in order to get the results used a number of means Statistical data processing such as the arithmetic mean and weighted percentage, standard deviation and analysis of simple linear regression, was reached a set of conclusions including : 1. The existence and effect link between the EMS relationship (ISO14001) and perform operations.2. emphasis on the application of paragraphs environmental management system in accordance with the standard (ISO 14001) larger, and that the environmental policy of the company to be declared and accessible to everyone.3. While recognizing the importance of the company's environmental management system and its impact on improving the performance of the operations, but they need to pay more attention to the requirements of the environmental management system.4. emphasis on the dissemination of the concept of environmental management system and its advantages in all the different levels of the company

اليات بناء مؤشر السوق وانعكاساتها على المخاطرة النظامية : بحث تطبيقي في سوق العراق للاوراق المالية == The Market Index Mechanisms And Its Impact On The Systematic Risk - Applied Research In The Iraqi Market For Securities

Author name: بشار هاشم رنكه
Supervisor name: اياد طاهر محمد الجبوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد مؤشر سوق الاوراق المالية احد المؤشرات الرئيسة للاستثمار في الاوراق المالية، اذ ترتبط المخاطرة النظامية باليات بناء مؤشر سوق الاوراق المالية، وتتجسد مشكلة الدراسة في جوانبها النظرية بوجود اليات لبناء المؤشر على اساس الترجيح بالقيمة السوقية او الترجيح | The stock market index is one of the main indicators of investment in securities, as linked to systematic risk build Securities Market index mechanisms, and the study embodied a problem in theoretical aspects the of mechanisms for the construction of the index on the basis of market value or weights equal or this individual share and price, on the other hand, the research problem is in systematic risk, which is one of the basics of investment securities, on the practical side, the construction of the index, according to these mechanisms reflect the systematic risk, and it has been chosen intentional sample (26 companies) of the shares listed on the Iraq stock Exchange companies Finance for a period of five years and a daily sessions (888 sessions).Along with the research issue, which discuss these point below : Do the market index mechanisms realistically measure systematic risk? Is that the mechanism used in the construction of Iraq Stock Exchange index accurately reflects the systematic risk? What are the most appropriate mechanisms in building Iraq Stock Exchange statistical notably {arithmetic mean, geometric mean and the correlation coefficient}. And of these questions aforementioned emerged hypotheses of the study, which centered on whether to reflect the different mechanisms of the market index and there were no significant differences in the risk of regulatory mechanism, and test three mechanisms for the construction of the index (stock price, market value, weights equal) in the Iraq Stock Exchange, and propose a fourth mechanism of a percentage of market value of shares traded to the market value of the company listed on the stock market within the index sample (as a future study). Notable among the findings of the study : in the financial market index values depending on the different mechanisms to build the index. And it does not mean convergence in the financial market index averages of the three mechanisms which previously discussed convergence of financial market returns. The direction of the stock market index up and down reflects a clear disparity in the financial market returns calculated on the basis of each indicator by mechanism built in isolation from each other, indicating the potential volatility of the index constituent stock returns and the attendant likelihood of systematic risk in the fluctuation.Of the key recommendations that emerged from the study : a study to choose another representative index sample through the historical information and activities of the company and traded volume in the financial market and the price of its shares and uninterrupted from the financial market and others funding sources (as a precaution to prevent money laundering within the financial market) during at least five years for companies included in the index is calculated, and then place the cursor to select the chosen sample.

التنبؤ باستعمال نماذج الانحدار الذاتي العامة المشروطة بعدم تجانس التباين (GARCH) الموسمية مع تطبيق عملي == Forecasting The Use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models (GARCH) Seasonality With Practical Application

Author name: بريدة برهان كاظم
Supervisor name: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لا شك فيه، تحظى نماذج GARCH) ) بالفاعلية والشعبية الكبيرة في نمذجة البيانات الاقتصادية والمالية، اذ تسمح للتباين المشروط بالتغير عبر الزمن، مما يجعلها اكثر واقعية في المجال الاقتصادي. وتتوفر ميزة اخرى مهمة في عالم الاقتصاد، ممثلة بالموسمية، الت | Un doubtedly , The GARCH model is very popular and effectiveness in economic and financial data , since it allows the conditional variance to vary over time , which makes them more realistic for the economic world. And there is another important characteristic in the economic world , Represented seasonality , that exist in high frequency data such as daily series , it can be seen in the real data of the exchange rate IQD/USD , Because there are seasonal conditional heteroscedasticity clearly shows in this data , Thereby are dealt with this type of data using Multiplicative seasonal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models , Because it is proven effective to express their seasonal phenomenon on the contrary GARCH models which do not contain seasonal vehicle. hence the aim of the research reaching a better model represents the seasonal data with proof of the effectiveness of the seasonal model in preference to the usual model. it has been used to detect seasonal presence in the data first , after that was diagnosed a problem of heteroscedasticity passing through the phase estimation using the conditional maximum likelihood and assuming normal distribution of errors , then determine the appropriate rank of the model using a number of special criterian Represented each of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwartz Information Criterion (SIC) , Hannan Quinn Information Criterion (H - Q), down to the stage to predict , using two method to predict the first is the prediction in the sample , which objective was to infer the efficiency of the preferred model and the second way forecasting out of sample any prediction of future values.it is found through the application on the study data stages that the best model for predicting volatility is SGARCH (1,0)(1,0).

بناء انموذج محاكاة لايجاد معولية منظومة قدرة كهربائية == Building A Simulation Model To Find The Reliability of Electrical Power System

Author name: بروين ايشا كيوركيس
Supervisor name: خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: بعد التطور الكبير الذي حصل في مجال الحاسبات والاهتمام المتزايد باسلوب المحاكاة ومن خلال دراستنا وبحثنا في اساليب وطرائق بحوث العمليات كان الزاما علينا دراسة وتطبيق احدا اساليب بحوث العمليات المعروفة والتي نشعر بان لها فائدة عظيمة في خدمة قطاعات واسعة في ا | After the great development happened in computers field, the increasing interest in the simulation method, and through our study and research in methods and techniques of operations researches, it was necessary to study and apply one of the known operations researches methods, which we feel that it has a great benefit in serving many sectors in the society, and that is the simulation method.So we decided to merge between simulation and an other method which is not less important than it, which is Reliability.In the last years, the great and increasing interest in studying reliability method was due to the rapid technical development and using complex electronic systems, and relating between it and simulation method is an important thing, so we tried in this research to build a simulation model suitable for the system to measure its reliability and for two different study cases.The fist case is when it is possible to build a mathematical model (primary) for the system. Before starting with forming of reliability system, we must first specify the type of the system that we are going to work on. We chose surplus system to be our study system, because of its capability to provide many choices, in addition to that it permits increasing the reliability spite of external environmental pressures. Because of our many objectives that we wish to achieve in this stage of increasing the reliability, reducing the total cost and total weight of the designed system, we used multi - objective models. And for achieving desired objectives, we formed the model as a case of programming of nonlinear mixed integer numbers. After we had built the mathematical model for the system, we have now a model with three objective functions (reliability - cost - weight) and one condition of size. But when these objectives became unclear in their objective nature, it is possible to reform the case within the fuzzy theory, so we have in this case a reliability system with fuzzy objectives. To solve models like this, it had been made a computer program with Q - Basic language to find the results using FAGP and FNLP methods with the assistance of Monte - Carlo simulation method to find the perfect reliability for the surplus system.As for the second case when it is impossible to build a pre - model for the system, and this is what happens when we have a complex systems and nets, in which the normal methods becomes useless for the total reliability of the system, so we use the simulation method (flow method) and in a direct way to find the reliability.The flow method is applied to Al - Quds electric power distribution station, in which it had been made a computer program with Q - Basic language to find the total reliability for the station and lost power in the year, in addition to determine the number of breakdowns in the specified period, and we tried using simulation to improve the reliability of the station by adding a spare parts

الابتكارات الحديثة في انظمة المدفوعات وتاثيرها في استقرار السياسة النقدية مع اشارة الى تجربة الاتحاد الاوروبي

Author name: برهان عثمان حسين البرزنجي
Supervisor name: ثريا عبد الرحيم علي الخزرجي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

اثر تصميم الوظيفة في فاعلية فرق العمل : دراسة تطبيقية في دائرة مدينة الطب == The Affect of Job Design Team Work Effectiveness Empirical Study In Medicine City Organization

Author name: براق طالب عبد الجبار الحيدر
Supervisor name: صلاح محمود عبد الكريم الرحيم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

معولية الانظمة الكبيرة القابلة للتصليح مع تطبيق عملي

Author name: براق صبحي كامل
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان المعولية - كما هو معروف - موضوع واسع، بحيث لن يكون بالامكان تناول جميع طرائقه في رسالة واحدة. لذلك تم التركيز في هذه الرسالة على حساب المعولية للانظمة القابلة للتصليح باستخدام طريقتين، الطريقة الاولى هي اسلوب ماركوف بعد تحديد الحالات الانتقالية ومعدلا

المحفظة الاستثمارية الحديثة وامكانية تطبيقها : دراسة حالة سوق العراق للاوراق المالية == The Modern Portfolio Theory And Their Possible Application : Case Study of The Iraqi Market For Stock Exchange

Author name: براء محي الدین ابراهیم الاعظمي
Supervisor name: محمد صالح سلمان الكبيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: This study highlight the vital part of the economy but a portfolio investment, the fact that the portfolio selection process consists of two parts, one based on scientific facts is formed in front of investor The second part is the view of the individual Alchkssp direction of each molecule within the investment portfolio, which being, so the basic premise that the investor builds its conclusions on the extent of his faith in the future accomplishment earned him the financial market. The purpose of the selection problem of the thesis is not the absence of solutions, but the lack of a systematic economic address in full, and due to how the vision is most clearly as possible to both parts of the investment portfolio, namely, the return and risk, the problem is between what the investor wants achieved return for what is achieved already and what to accept the risk of confrontation and what is the risk of the portfolio in fact. It is this basis of this letter seeks to achieve several goals, the first access to the basic theory to solve the problem is the possibility of application of the theory of modern portfolio investment in the Iraqi market for securities and the suitability of the Iraqi economy, and the second the possibility of creating a wide application of policy Tnoieip efficient investment portfolio and third - term application of the method systematic scientific approach to portfolio investment in the Iraqi financial market and the fourth is the ability to build accurate conclusions for the future of racial and portfolio risk and return them by relying on historical data of each financial asset or several types of financial asset of one and the quality of the results achieved. Therefore, the premise upon which the study was the adoption of portfolio theory as a basis to draw a scientific and systematic way to access the maximum possible returns with the face of the lowest possible risk through the activation of efficient policy of diversification with the appropriate combination with the investment portfolio compared with similar work and act for the difference between methodological approach taken and the method of random non - systematic, the success of the hypothesis was tested by selecting a sample of joint stock companies operating in the Iraqi market for securities and depending on certain financial indicators to derive the most accurate results, which can show us the best possible vision for the future of the reality of the investment portfolio of the design was done investment vocabulary consists of the sample was selected based on efficiency in terms of return and low risk, and that led to the results proved the success of the user mode within the reality of the Iraqi economy. PDF created with pdfFactory Pro trial version www.pdffactory.com The letter contained five chapters discuss the first chapter in his upbringing and the concept of modern portfolio theory and overlap between them and the theory of economic benefit, while the Chapter II contains the components parts of the investment portfolio and how to build an investment portfolio modern theory of the basics, and Chapter III Regulations in the Iraqi market for securities and the fundamental basis of by the methodological approach taken in the test, the fourth chapter has also addressed the comparison between the portfolio working without scientific basis and the investment portfolio that has been adopted and built on scientific method and the theoretical foundation of the theory of portfolio investment, and that Chapter V contains the conclusions had been reached in the This study in addition to the recommendations it deems researcher within this message. The most important conclusions reached are : 1. Methods that must be followed to achieve the investment objectives selected in the squad for the wallet is pursuing a policy of investment Tnoieip efficient. 2. Indicated that follow such a systematic way has proved clear guidelines on the difference between him and the random - based Allaalmip, which showed no impact on the investment within the Iraqi financial market. 3. Find the way to determine the impact of mental outlook for the investor to both the size of the return that he wants to achieve in relation to the risk that possible to face in any combination selected by any policy Tnoieip followed. 4. Achieve scientific method used to infer two main points : A. Get on the prospects for more efficient to configure a variety of policy and the use of diversification that may be appropriate to the aspirations of the investor. B. The adoption of mobile style in his analysis of economic and financial indicators for companies selected for investment and thus takes into account the possible changes and jumps occur in each economy of any country in particular, periods of economic crisis being interested in measuring the indicators of historical formulas.

تحليل ازمة التخطيط في العراق في ظل التحول نحو اقتصاد السوق للمدة (2003 - 2013)م == Analysis of The Planning Crisis In Iraq Within The Transformation Toward Market Economy For The Period (2003 - 2013)

Author name: بان خليل ابراهيم الموسوي
Supervisor name: يحيى غني جاسم النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يقدم هذا البحث عددا من التحليلات والشواهد النظرية والدلائل العلمية التي توضح مدى تاثير التغيرات والتحولات الاقتصادية العالمية على الاقتصاد العراقي الذي شهد التوجه نحوها منذ عام 2003م بعــــــد عقــــود من سيــــطرة الاقتصاد الموجه، مستعرضا ابرز مظاهر ال | This research presents many of theoretical analyzes and attestations, and scientific evidences showing the impact of global changes and economic transformations on the Iraqi economy, which is witnessing orientation towards it since 2003 after decades of domination - oriented economy, presenting the most prominent manifestations of economic transformation towards market economy (the advanced capitalist) of programs and policies strategy brought by global organizations of capitalism, which affected the planning trends and economic development objectives. We have been discussing many of the core issues such as advanced capitalism, market economy, liberalization and integration, privatization and direct foreign investment. In the midst of Iraq's transition towards market economy and to try to apply the trends mentioned above, the Iraqi economy bumped into crisis of tends applications. So it has become the achievement of development objectives necessarily requires a certain policies and procedures, which in turn requires the employment of means to achieve them within range of a specific time and through a scientific approach in the implementation of optimization in allocation of available resources, and this is what can not be automatically achieved. In other words, it is impossible to rely on the market mechanism in optimizing the best use of national resources, it has proven experiences of advanced capitalism itself that the market economy is unable to achieve the optimal allocation of resources without government intervention by means of formats and procedures include long - term economic plans. From this perspective highlights the role of meaningful economic planning as a scientific method is capable of running the economic development process safely, and that serve their goals in society as a whole service, along with the market economy form that makes their relationship become complementary, more precisely, to achieve coexistence between the private and public sector, with a greater role for the public sector. And within the activities of the public sector across the way planning levels is (preparation, implementation and follow - up implementation) many of the problems and obstacles that are crises appear, may be incurred and clarified a way that allows educate track and treatment to upgrade the Iraqi economy. Iraq remains important, like other developing countries is the (search for an economic system that takes advantages of the stylistic planning and the market mechanism, and excludes the negative impacts in line with global economic changes).

تاثير راس المال الاجتماعي في دعم العمل المنظمي لتحقيق الميزة التنافسية : دراسة ميدانية في الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية == The Effect of Social Capital On Supporting Organizational Work To Achieve Competitive Advantage

Author name: بان احمد عارف الخطاوي
Supervisor name: سعد علي حمود عباس العنزي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اهتمت هذه الدراسة بايجاد تاثير راس المال الاجتماعي عبر مكوناته (الزمالة، الثقة، التعاون، راس المال الفكري) في دعم العمل المنظمي عبر مكوناته (الالتزام التنظيمي، التطبيع الاجتماعي التنظيمي، الابداع الاجتماعي التنظيمي) لتحقيق الميزة التنافسية.تتلخص مشكلة ال | his study concerns with finding the effect of social capital including (Associability, trust, cooperation, and intellectual capital) on supporting organizational work that includes organizational commitment, socialization and social innovation. The essential problem of this study can be summarized that we lack an applied Iraqi or Arabian study concerns with the relationship of social capital with the supporting of organizational work to achieve competitive advantages. So, we attempt in this study to answer on such questions : what do we mean with social capital, its importance and components?. How is social capital built and invested?. , And what is the nature of social capital in the Iraqi organization that selected for the sample of our research. In order to handle the research problem and to achieve its aim, we suggested three main hypotheses, and of each one, some sub hypotheses are subdivided. The first one states “social capital has no effect on supporting organizational work”. Wherease the second one states “the supported organizational work has no effect on competitive advantage of organization”, and the third hypotheses states “there is no statistical relation of physical meaning between social capital and competitive advantage”.The three zero hypotheses are rejected, and other alternative hypotheses are accepted and tested with a number of statistical methods. Questionnaire is used to gather the data and information from study sample of (240) individuals, the workers in state establishment for electric industries.The study depended on ready measures for measuring the whole variables, and the all is tested according to validity and confirmation testing.This research come out with many conclusions, of which, the social capital with its four dimensions (Intellectual capital, trust, Associability and cooperation) led to the best division to knowledge ascribed to high levels of trust and proactive networks and to common objectives and frameworks in the company upon our research. In addition to that the lower turnover rates showed decreasing variability & training costs, the use of human resources, and the decisions characterized with stailty because they stem of common understanding in hand and development of social capital in other hand.The researcher recommends the following : the benefit of intelligent workers who are known of their accuracy in work, by distinguishing them and making them on the top of groups that make social capital. Those will give their ideas that present social and intellectual innovation to improve competitive advantage.

تحليل العوامل المحددة لسياسة الاقتراض العام : مصر حالة دراسية == The Analysis of Limited Factors For Policy of Public Credit , Egypt As Study Case

Author name: باسم محمد تركي العواد
Supervisor name: يسرى مهدي حسن السامرائي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The public credits are considered to be one of the most important source of the public - Revenues. In addition, they are considered to be modern tools for making and financing the public service which are brought into surface with the presence of the modern public financial concepts. moreover , they are distributing the financial - Burden among different section of the society. The public - credits ,also, affect the process of distributing the national income since they are recognized to be prominent tools for relating the fiscal - policy with monetary policy.The matter of increasing the public - credits economically , socially and politically is widely justified because of the government interfering in the economic and social fields.This interference leads also, to the increasing of the public payment which are used to save the other public revenues like taxes. This process of financing leads consequently to a deficit in the blanc of payments for a lot of countries that follow such policy. Addihoually, those countries make use of these credits to save the deficits. Therefore , these credits become like an active means to save the revenues which cannot be achieved by the taxes. Besides, the public credits are considered and recognized to be one of the most important means of the fiscal and economic policy to achieve the national intentions This study describes the problem of the public credits by tackling the main elements that affect this kind of policy.Besides, the study makes some application to the public credits policy in Egypt. The changes in Egyptian economics have been determined when the affective elem ents of the internal and external crediting policy are dealt with especially after the application of the reformation policy after 1990. The study is divided into three main chapters. The first are deals with the concept of the public credits.This chapter is divided into two sections.The first one tackles the development of this concept from the traditional thought till the modern one.While, the second section deals with the technical way of systemizing the public credits in the form of conditions and issues.The second chapter analyzes the economic and social elements which determine the main policy of crediting.This chapter is also divided into two sections.The first one deals with the economic elements whiles the second one tackles the political and social elements that determine and form the policy of crediting. The third chapter is dedicated to deal with the elements of crediting in Egypt. It is divided into three sections. The first one deals with the affective elements of the amount of the internal and external public crediting.The second section is dedicated to highlight the economic elements that form the policy of the public crediting in Egypt. The third section tackles the political and social elements that form the public crediting policy.Finally , the last chapter sums up the finding that the study come with

فاعلية السياسة النقدية في تحقيق الاستقرار الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة من 1990 - 2005

Author name: باسم خميس عبيد الشمري
Supervisor name: فريد جواد كاظم الدليمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

اعادة هندسة مسار العمليات وتاثير ابعادها في تعزيز الاداء المؤسسي : بحث في مكتب المفتش العام لوزارة التعليم العالي والبحث العلمي == Re - Engineering of Process Path And The Effect of Its Dimensionsfor Enhancing of Institutional Performance : Research In The Public Inspector Office For Height Education Ministry And Scientific Research

Author name: باسم حاكم كاظم العابدي
Supervisor name: غسان قاسم داود سلمان اللامي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Performance Evaluation
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف هذا البحث الى تشخيص واقع وامكانية تطبيق اعادة هندسة مسار ابعاد العمليات في مكتب المفتش العام لوزارة التعليم العالي والبحث العلمي العراقية مع دراسة وتحليل امكانية توفير الارضية المناسبة لذلك , من خلال الاطلاع على الامكانيات المتوفرة لدى المكتب وخصوصا | This research aims to diagnose the reality and the possibility of the application of re - dimensions of operations in the Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research of Iraq with the study and analysis of the possibility of providing a suitable ground for that course of Engineering, through access to the possibilities available to the office, especially human resource (personnals, skills, expertises) , which is the central element for the success of change. The research problem has been identified in the presence of routine and administrative episodes excess and found organizational structure that contains the administrative units can be combined or dispensed with the development of other units to actively contribute to enhancing the performance, and not to use the available resources optimally and this in turn generates bottlenecks and waste of time and that means wasting resources and random lag the performance of the business, as well as to answer a number of questions, the most important - is the availability of the dimensions of re - operations in the course of work of the Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Higher Education and scientific research environment Engineering? What is the reality of the corporate performance indicators Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research? In order to achieve the desired goals of the research and answer the questions of the problem, as research aims to see the actual reality of the performance of the Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research and diagnose strengths and weaknesses and make proposals that would consolidate the strengths and address weaknesses in the path Business, diagnose reality and the dimensions of process re - engineering and the dimensions of institutional performance and its impact in the order of precedence of those dimensions in the office, applied research on a sample of (60) a member of the office staff out of (127) and functional level extends between managers and department heads and officials of the people and officials of the units and some of the staff, has used the questionnaire as a tool to collect data and information, the study reports the office has been relying on the analysis of data on the arithmetic mean of the results of the standard deviation and the relative importance and tight to answer and the coefficient of variation and t - test, F sig as appropriate statistical methods to analyze the data, and achieved a set of results, highlighted by the presence of correlation significant morale among the dimensions of Business process Reengineering and the dimensions of institutional performance appeared that there was a significant effect between Business process Reengineering and the dimensions of institutional performance, as this effect level uneven between dimensions, while at the level of exploratory analysis of the data shows a routine and workshops administrative redundant to be canceled or processed through simplification of procedures and attention to reconsider the restructuring and the abolition of administrative loops is important and which can be dispensed with, and that the office need to pay attention to simplify procedures and a review of the current structure. a and the abolition of routine existing and adoption analysis for operations and research found a new administrative structure is consistent with the principle of re - engineering institutions

تحليل العلاقة بين البيئة والتنمية المستدامة مع اشارة خاصة لحالة محافظة اربيل == Analysis of Relationship Between The Environment And Sustainable Development With Spiced Case Study In Erbil Governorate

Author name: ايوب انور حمد سماقةيى
Supervisor name: يحيى غني جاسم النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The relationship between the environment and sustainable development is one of the significant contemporary economic subjects.This thesis aims at showing the relationship between the environment and sustainable development and analyzing it. This thesis points out that relationship between them is very strong and mutual, because the target of the development of the sustainable economy is sustaining the total capital, which includes (human capital, natural capital, social capital and man - mode capital). At the same time, the target of the sustainable environmental development is how to sustain the total capital. Thus, when the economical and environmental policies are more cooperating and united this leads to the real sustainable economy and it has its positive advantages on the environment and economy.Applying the sustainability in Erbil governorate was obstacle with political, ethical, and technology considerations that may be difficult to control, and overcome, which in turn makes it not achievable in a short future term.

الخصخصة بين النظرية والتطبيق في دول مختارة مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == Privatization Between Theor And Practice In Some of Chosen Countries With Reverence To Iraq

Author name: ايناس محمد رشيد المشهداني
Supervisor name: حسن نوري الياسري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

تاثير مهارات المدراء في اداء ادوارهم المعلوماتية : بحث ميداني في مكاتب المفتشين العامين == The Impact of The Managers Skills In The Performance of Their Informatics Roles A Field Research In Iraqi General Director Inspectors

Author name: ايناس محمد احمد البرغوث
Supervisor name: صلاح الدين عواد كريم الكبيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Control and Inspection
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: انطلاقا من اهمية امتلاك المدراء لمجموعة متنوعة من المهارات تمكنهم من العمل والاشراف على الاخرين من خلال التاثير على سلوكهم من اجل حثهم على بذل الجهد واستمالتهم للتعاون بقصد تحقيق الاهداف الموضوعة وتاثير ذلك في الاداء الفاعل لادوار المدراء المعلوماتية، سي | Given the importance of having managers for a variety of skills to enable them to work and supervision of others through influence on their behavior in order to encourage them to exert the effort and induce them to cooperate in order to achieve the objectives set and the impact on the efficient performance of the managers Informatics roles, will this research focused on the statement of the ability of managers to self - diagnosis skills Individualistic, Technical, Managerial, Human and Conceptual and extent enable them and method employed in the performance of their Informatics roles at the offices of Inspectors general for best way, The research was based on two assumptions fundamental, The first is based on a significant correlation between the skills of managers and Informatics roles, while the second hypothesis, it presupposes the existence of a significant effect relationship between skills and roles of Informatics roles managers, the researcher touch need urgent for these offices generally and managers especially to recognize that the relationship and influence between skills and Informatics Roles, The offices of the Iraqi Inspector General need today and in the future in the midst of the time of the storm shifts and changes to administrative leaders able to adapt to change or repel storms negative effects, We need to such administrations, which also will be able to mobilize human and material resources, optimize or preserved, The research aims to measure the level and nature of the relationship and influence between the skills of managers and their Informatics Roles from the viewpoint of the research sample (63) people from the Department managers in the office and some Division official working in five offices of the Inspectors general in Iraq of the ministries of (Industry and Minerals for the economic sector, Municipalities and Public Works for the public service sector, Education for the education sector, Environment for the health sector, Electricity for the energy sector), And the researcher adopted descriptive analytical method to describe the research community and test hypotheses and used a number of statistical methods Such as the arithmetic mean of measuring the level of the variables of the research and its dimensions, and the standard deviation to measure the dispersion of absolute and coefficient of variation for measuring dispersion relative, the simple correlation coefficient of Spearman for measuring the level of the relationship between the explanatory variable and variable effector and the simple

استخدام التحليل البيزي لنموذج انحدار خطي بسيط باستخدام اسلوب المحاكاة == The Bayes Analysis In The Model Simple Linear Regression Using Simulation

Author name: ايناس عبد الحافظ محمد
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تبقى عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج الانحدار من الموضوعات المهمة على الرغم من كثرة ما كتب عنها من خلال البحوث والدراسات التي تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير سواء كان هذا الاسلوب تقليديا او بيزيا.الغرض من هذه الدراسة هو توظيف معلومات مسبقة | The process of estimating the parameters of regression, is still one of importent Subject despite of large number of papers and studies written in this subject, these studies are differ in techniques followed in the process of estimation if this techniques classic or Bayesian. The purpose of this study to prior information about the parameters was applied which estimated according to Bayesian theory which represented by Gamma distribution with one parameter in the estimating process and for varies simple sizes then making a comparison between estimation techniques represented by (OLS) method and Bayesian techniques by providing the distribution and all techniques which deals with derivatives process to obtain the Bayesian estimation. By using the simulation technique, results has been obtained to provide the researcher the image to clarify the best method in estimation technique
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