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فاعلية السياسة النقدية في ظل داخلية عرض النقود : تجارب مختارة مع اشارة خاصة الى العراق The effectiveness of monetary policy under the Endogenity of money supply : Experiences of selected countries with reference to Iraq

اسم المؤلف: عبد الله محسن جايد الساعدي
اسم المشرف: فلاح حسن ثويني
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: دكتوراه
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:

تحليل السياسات السعرية لشركاث الهاتف النقال في دول مختارة مع اشارة خاصة للعراق An Analysis of Mobile Companies Pricing Policies In Selected Countries - With Particular Reference To Iraq

اسم المؤلف: راجي محيل هليل الخفاجي
اسم المشرف: عبد الستار عبد الجبار موسى
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: دكتوراه
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: The mobile phone companies in all over the world are mostly distinguished by their limitid number, mutual relations, trading with rival companies in other countries, and while some of them working together in developed markets, others work in the emerging markets which are in the early stages of growth and spread.The pricing decisions and some other decisions, despite those differences mentioned above, are taken by those companies according to governments regulations related to organizing the olegopoly markets work.As a result, those decisions are usually characterized by being strategic in their behavior and in their direction to enhance the companies bargaining power against consumers, to control the prices, and market shares, especially when those companies agreed implicitly to control the prices and the market shares.This dissertation aimed to study pricing systems in the various countries, and analyzing the nature of the pricing prevailing strategies in the mobile markets in selected developed countries from (OECD), which both France, Switzerland, and some of the developing countries, which both Egypt, India, with particular reference to the case of Iraq, and compare its mobile services prices with some of the neighboring countries, based on Microeconomic, game theory application ,and Nash bargaining solution.Also, this dissertation was drafted a proposed model for the mobile services pricing, that can provide the minimum necessary calls minutes prices, which commensurate with the gross national income per capita, or with the poverty level line, that can be applied in practice, not only in Iraq, but in different developing countries.These services, which became a necessity basic for progress, prosperity, and an important pillar in the process of sustainable development, poverty fighting, and make it available had became a legitimate right, that guaranteed by the state, and it is an important basic need, of an individual or family requirements, especially, in the current situation in Iraq, which Wired telephone service significantly deteriorated, and there is no suitable efficient alternative, but only mobile services, which are private sector companies owned, and there is no competitor in the public sector.The government task is find a balance between allowing monopoly companies to cover its costs, with a profit margin, and not allow those companies to impose monopolistic price, which expands the size of the lost loss, and lower the level of welfare.In order to achieve the objectives of dissertation, it has been divided into three chapters, the first included theoretical economic framework, while the second chapter has included the trends of mobile services pricing in selected countries as described above, and third chapter included the recent economic directions of the mobile services pricing in Iraq.Finally, the dissertation has reached a number of conclusions, The most important one is, that the efficient, transparent government regulation for the mobile phone licenses rounds management, and the reduction of taxes, and fees that impose on mobile phone companies, will lead to increased spread, reduce prices, and increase the level of social welfare

اتجاهات السياسة المالية بين الفكر الاقتصادي الراسمالي والاسلامي Financial Policy Directions Between Two - Ideas : Capitalism And Islamic

اسم المؤلف: هاشم عبد مناف حسين زوين
اسم المشرف: قصي عبود فرج الجابري
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: دكتوراه
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:

اليات البنك المركزي العراقي في الحفاظ على استقرار سعر الصرف مع اشارة خاصة لمزاد العملة Mechanisms of Iraqi Central Bank In Maintaining The Stability of The Exchange Rate With A Special Reference To Currency Auction

اسم المؤلف: منى جابر حايط الشهيلي
اسم المشرف: وحيدة جبر خلف المنشد
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: ماجستير
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: Iraq's economy has seen a year later (2003), both the monetary and real, a new phase where changes have occurred, the most important of them the Central Bank of Iraq got for its independence, according to the law (56) for the year (2004) in the formulation of monetary policy, and determine the appropriate tools in the implementation of the objectives of that policy, particularly price stability and raise the value of the Iraqi dinar.Indeed, the Central Bank of Iraq, a year later (2003), introduced window for sale and purchase of foreign currency. Thus, it has harnessed the accumulated foreign reserves, as the currency auction is an indirect monetary tool aimed at the withdrawal of excess liquidity and maintain the value of the Iraqi dinar, so the study runs from the hypothesis that the central bank can stabilize the dinar exchange rate, and that any limitation on daily sales of the dollar, it will reflect negatively on that stability.Therefore, the purpose of this study, in the process testing the hypothesis, is to evaluate the role of the new established mechanisms by the Iraqi Central Bank to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar, and maintain its stability, especially auction currency, and then review the options before the Central Bank under the low foreign reserves as a result of lower oil prices.For the purpose of the detailed explaining of the whole aspects of the study, it was divided into three chapters, followed by conclusions and recommendations. Chapter one discusses the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and the Central Bank of Iraq, and chapter two offers the objectives, functions and independence of the Central Bank of Iraq in the framework of the law (56), and the chapter three highlights the role of the auction in the stability of exchange rate, and the options under a decline in foreign reserves.

العلاقات التجارية بين العراق وايران بعد عام 2003 التحديات وسبل التطوير Trade Relations Between Iraq And Iran After The 2003... Challenges And Ways of Development

اسم المؤلف: قاسم محمد لعيبي
اسم المشرف: مظفر حسني علي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: ماجستير
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تعد التجارة الدولية المحرك الاساسي لعملية النمو الاقتصادي للبلدان لما تقدمه من مساهمة فعالة في عملية التنمية الاقتصادية , ونتيجة لذلك تسعى الدول الى اقامة علاقات تجارية جيدة متكافئة مستفيدة من المكاسب الممكن تحقيقها على اساس الميزة النسبية. وتزداد المكاسب | International trade is the main engine of the economic growth of countries for its effective contribution to the economic development process. As a result, countries seeking to establish good and equal business relations to benefitfrom the gains that can be achieved on the basis of comparative advantage. The potential gains from trade increase between neighboring countries, where geographical proximity helps to reduce transportation costs, and develop areas of cooperation or economic integration between them, in addition to many other factors. As is the case in trade relations between Iraq and Iran, where trade between the two countries allows the possibility of developing their relationship in order to serve the interests of both countries, especially after the changes that took place after 2003. The data showed that the nature of the business relationship between the two countries experiencing disproportionate levels of trade exchange, where the Iranian goods accounting for a large relative importance of the total Iraqi imports, so Iraq is a market for them, making the Iraqi economy suffers from a heavy reliance on Iranian products, because of the open border policy front the foreign goods, and the absence of local competition of Iranian production. At the time the Iraqi merchandise exports to Iran it did not represent animportant proportion, making the business relationship between the two countries is unequal, and tend to the economic dependency. The study aims to explore the trends in international trade between Iraq and Iran, and the impact of this trade on the reality of the development of the Iraqi economy, and these trends are based on many factors, such as geographical proximity, social and ethnic ties between the two countries,in addition to the joint economic ties, such as water and oilfields.The study found a number of fconclusions and recommendations.

قياس وتحليل العلاقة بين تحرير التجارة الخارجية والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (2003 - 2014) باستخدام نموذج ARDL Measuring And Analyzing The Relationship Between International Trade Liberalization And Economic Growth In Iraq For The Period (2003 - 2014) By Using (Ardl) Model

اسم المؤلف: عمار نعيم زغير الجناني
اسم المشرف: عبد الكريم عبد الله محمد المشهداني
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: ماجستير
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: يهدف هذا البحث الى قياس وتحليل العلاقة بين تحرير التجارة الخارجية والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (2014 - 2003) باستعمال نموذج (ARDL), وينطلق من فرضية مفادها ان النمو الاقتصادي في العراق يستفيد من الصادرات والاستيرادات, ولغرض التحقق من هذه الفرضية تم تحو | This research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between The liberalization of international trade and economic growth in Iraq. The period (2003 - 2014) using ARDL model , This research is derived from a main - hypothesis adopted in this paper is that economic growth in Iraq will benefit from the exports and imports , To achieve this hypothesis ,Annual data is converted to quarterly data; as well as the use of augmented Dickey - Fuller Test , applying ARDL model and tests for the second order tests , applying and error correction model (ECM) , in addition to The Test for Granger causality. The research concluded that there is a long - run equilibrium relationship between GDP and exports and Imports, We also can see a quick response in the GDP when exports and Imports are changing. It also shows that exports have the largest proportion; And exports account for the largest Proportion , The estimated Model Reflects A very high level of quality assessment; This also illustrate the value of the coefficient of determination amounting to (%92) , as well as the fact that the estimated model does not suffer from the problem of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity , as well as parameters stability as reflected in CUSUM test. The assessment results refered that a(%10) change in exports on the long - run will lead to a(%3.42) change in GDP , ceteris paribus. It also refered that a(%10) change in imports will leads to a decreas in GDP by (% - 0.08) , ceteris paribus and this is insignificant because P - value is more than more (%5). This is emphasize by the hypothesis states that “export - lead - growth”.

فاعلية قناة الائتمان المصرفي في السياسة النقدية في العراق للمدة 2004 - 2014 The Effectiveness of Credit Channel In The Monetary Policy of Iraqi For The Period (2004 - 2014)

اسم المؤلف: صادق وهاب فرحان
اسم المشرف: عبد الرسول علي حسين
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: ماجستير
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تستطيع السلطات النقدية تحقيق اهدافها النهائية من خلال قناتين , هما قناة سعر الفائدة التي تسمى القناة التقليدية , وقناة الائتمان المصرفي. وقد اقتصرت هذه الدراسة على تناول قناة الائتمان المصرفي حصرا. ان هذه الدراسة تحاول تسليط الضوء على العلاقة بين السيا | The monetary Authorities can achieve it is final goals and targets through two channels. the first is the interest rate channel , which is known also as the conventional channel. the second one is the credit channel. this theses is devoted to deal with the latter.This study to shed light upon the nexus between the monetary policy and the banking sector in Iraq for the period 2004 - 2014. it importance stems from addressing the credit channel in details and from stating the impact of the banking sector’s characteristics on the Effeciency of credit channel.The Hypothesis of the theses as following : " The characteristics of Iraqi banking sector during the period 2004 - 2014 , set the stage for the credit channel to work Effeciently. The study lies into three sectors. the first one is devoted to give a theoretical framework of the credit channel and the factors that the researcher considers as a determinants of the credit channel Effeciency. The second chapter displays the characteristics of the Iraqi banking sector for the period 2004 - 2014 , while the third one represents an attempt to measure the Effeciency of credit channel in Iraq for the period a mentioned above by using two model , the first is a simple regression , while in the other , we used the weights or the range Approach , after that , the study listed some conclusions and recommendations.

تحليل جودة النمو في العراق في ضوء الاداء الاقتصادي والاجتماعي بعد عام 2003 Analysis The Growth Quality In Iraqi Economy After 2003

اسم المؤلف: سرور علي عبد الحسين السوداني
اسم المشرف: فلاح خلف علي الربيعي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: ماجستير
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: The Iraqi economy enable to achieve high growth rates after the political change in 2003, , but the rise in those rates did not positively reflected on the economic performance in general, as a result of synchronization of those rates with the increase in oil revenues, and did not come as a result of improvement in the performance macroeconomic variables, as it has not seen an improvement in the performance of economic and social variables that reflect the quality of economic growth.This research relying on a quality of growth index which proposed by the international Monetary Fund experts which include economic dimension which include growth strength and inflation, the structure of the demand and the sectoral composition as economic variables, and social dimension of health, education.This study emphasizes that good growth is the growth, which includes the economic and social dimensions. On one hand, the focus on the economic dimension contributes the disclosure of the nature of economic growth and its trends to judge the sustainability of growth and the degree of its stability, and find out the extent to which this growth contributes in correcting structural imbalances, through a sub - indicators, which is represented by strong economic growth and economic stability, as well as the structure of the demand. While the focus on the social dimensions sect oral includes the dimensions of health, education, where it cannot achieve good growth without taking into account the economic and social dimensions, that is, mobilize material and human efforts to improve macroeconomic variables performance and the productive and social sectors of this index's. The research found one numeric value which reflected the weak quality of economic growth level in Iraq because of the weak performance of most economic and social indicators, this value is consistent with the site that filled Iraq's most international indicators for assessing the developmental quality of performance, which often comes in. Iraq ranks last with economies, which characterized by weak performance. The first one is the birth of a consumer pattern meets the wars and economic sanctions requirements, both together, and the second is the oil revenues and their relation with the general budget, which was transformed from a war consumer pattern into a consumer pattern reflected the deterioration of the economic efficiency and confiscation of real development with trends in which the Iraqi economy being dependent upon the consumer trade and regional developments. As a result of that, the study recommended to the advancement of the Iraqi economy and develop their abilities through three connected and continuous operations : the accumulation of capital, technology and structural change of the Iraqi economy

خيارات الشراكة بين القطاعين العام والخاص واطر التنفيذ : دراسة لتجارب دول مختارة مع اشارة خاصة الى العراق Partnership Choices Between Public And Private Sectors And Implementation Frameworks : A Study For The Experiences of Selected Countries With Special Reference To Iraq

اسم المؤلف: زينب علي جمعة
اسم المشرف: منى يونس حسين
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: ماجستير
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: The economic circles of governments, research centers and specialize dorganizations and others focused on the subject of the partnership between the public and private sectors, especially after the global crisis (mortgage crisis) 2008 - 2009, and the perception of both capitalism and socialism, and thus to the role of the state in economic life, and then to the role of public and private sector in the process of the burdens of the development process from thecornerof rallying all the possibilities in the community of the energies, resources and expertise in each of the sectors, and represents a partnership between the sectors from the viewpoint of its supporters, and the means of financing local projects, especially with the growing burden of the general budget in accordance with the constant changes in world prices for countries that rely their budget on oil, and for countries already suffering from a lack of resources,and states went out of the central towards fiscal decentralization, while some believe that the partnership is not always the best choices to provide a service or commodity or implement a project, so the government agencies to be cautious and scrutinize all the economic factors and effects when making arrangements partnership.There are different types of partnership distribute the risks and responsibilities in different ways, and the government should not think that the partnership provide it easy solutions to the difficulttopics,so it must expect the highestresults, in return, from the partner, and perhaps legal and financialrestrictions and consequences, and others.The theme of partnership between the public and private sectorsis a new one in the economic literature, and is still in the early stages to put the standardized principles, rules andsystems to it, control and regulate various forms of partnership between the two sectors to include all sectors, despite the fact that its beginnings in the eighties and nineties of the last century, but it was not readily visible only in this period, so it is necessary to study and analyze itto know its advantages and disadvantages, and the extent of his contribution to the solution of economic problems.Because the subject of the partnership between the public and private sectors is still in its early stages, although his beginnings in the eighties and nineties of the last century,so it is necessary to study of the concept of partnership,its types, justifications, objectives, laws, and elaborated and classified it to put it in the specific rules and frameworks, and understand the degree of risk associated with a partnership or benefits from it. The structure of the researchis distributed between three chapters, where the first chapter examines the theoretical aspect of the partnership between the public and private sectors, which is divided into two sections.The first one examines the concept of partnership, itstypes, justifications, objectives and benefits in general, and the second studying the theoretical debate of the role of the state and the private sector in economic activity, while the second chapter is divided into three sections. It examines the experiences of countries in the world in the partnership between the public and private sectors, the first section of it for the international, Arab and Islamic views about the partnership between the two sectors, occur while the second offers the Egypt's experience in partnership, explaining its legal framework and applied partas collectives and ventures.The third section was studying the experience of Morocco in partnership under the same pattern in its legal framework and applied part as collectives and ventures.The third chapter devoted to the partnership in Iraq and distributed among the three sections, the first : legislative framework for partnership in Iraq, and explain the development of public and private sector, and the relationship between them, while the second section analyzes the partnership databetween the public and private sectors in Iraq after 2003, and the third section went for the study of the most important caveats or risk, not forgetting the benefits of the partnership between the public and private sectors to get to a set of conclusions, the most important of them the true hypothesis of the research, where it can find a partnership between the public and private sectors, however, such a partnership could lead to the pros and caveats or risks, the most serious of these caveats are not tighten the legal partnership, which means a legal port or a legal loophole for a partner to get the gains, which leads us to recommend the creation of a dedicated and efficient staff to study the contracts and legal provisions.

الامن الغذائي في العراق وافاقه المستقبلية في ظل المتغيرات الاقتصادية المحلية والدولية Food Security In Iraq And Its Future Prospects In The Light of Economical Local And International Variables

اسم المؤلف: خالد قحطان عبود
اسم المشرف: عبد الستار عبد الجبار موسى
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: دكتوراه
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: يعد تحقيق الامن الغذائي من المواضيع التي تحظى باولوية في مختلف الدول سواء كانت متقدمة ام نامية وكذلك فان المنظمات الدولية الزراعية المتخصصة قد اعطتها اهمية خاصة من خلال جعل اول اهداف الالفية الثالثة للامم المتحدة هو "القضاء على الفقر المدقع والجوع" وتسعى | Food Security is considered one of the significant subjects that has the priority in various countries whether these countries are advanced or developed one. It is worthy to say that the Specialized International and Agricultural States had supported Food Security great and private interests by making the first aims of the third thousand era for UNITED NATIONS is " Destruction the Poverty and Hunger".These Countries , including Iraq , look forward , within their economic resources to achieve that aim , but there are actually economic local variables that influence on the local agricultural production and to stop its achievement.On other hand , there are International Economic Variables that participate to impact in Economic Activity for its various and different sectors , including the Agricultural Sector , especially Iraq meets its Food Requirements for the main foods through import.This Thesis aims to study and deal with the concept of Food security in many Local and International aspects , as well as , to benefit from Advanced International States ' Experiences I this field (European Union as a Sample) , besides several Food and Social Protection Programs in some Developed Countries (Brazil as a Sample) and to recognize the reality of Agricultural and Food Abilities for Iraq and knowing the challenges ¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬that may be faced , and to concentrate on the effects of Internal and International Economic Variables that influence on Food Security for Iraq and to plan forthcoming future horizons for Food Security by expecting the size of Food Gap for the most important strategic Food products , with concentrating on the most significant schedules during the period (2003 - 2014).Thesis has divided into four chapters , each Chapter is subdivided into three topics.Chapter One has dealt with , as a Conceptual Framework for Food Security , Food Security and the problem of Substitution , as well as , the most important and Effective Internal and International Economic Variables on Food Security.Chapter Two has concerned with Agricultural Policies and Social and Food Protection Programs in Advance and Developed Countries altogether (As Selected Samples) through studying Joint Agricultural Policy for European Union with concerning with the essence of Food and Social Security Schedules in Developed Countries and to mention to Food and Social Protection schedules in Brazil as a Sample.Chapter Three had dealt with the reality of Food and Agriculture in Iraq for the period (2003 - 2014) as well as the Agricultural Potentials in addition to the Food Situation in and the challenges that may be faced.Chapter Four has concerned with the effects of Internal and International Economic Variables in Food Security for Iraq and its forthcoming horizons.Last , many conclusions and recommendations were achieved. The most important conclusions are that food security levels in Iraq during the duration (2003 - 2014) are to fluctuate for various reasons, despite a slight improvement in agricultural production, especially total food grain, but he does not keep pace with domestic demand are to cover the food deficit through imports cover, and therefore the impact on the self - sufficiency ratios and the size of the gap nutrients, either the most important recommendations, it must rely on agricultural policies aimed to develop the agricultural sector based on the first two pillars reliance on the private sector, whether individuals or agricultural companies under the guidance of the state and the second increase in agricultural support and expansion of presenting the different kinds and forms of various started to talk a distortion in the economy, taking into consideration the suit in the case of Iraq,s accession to the World Trade Organization.

الدور التنموي لصناديق الثروة السيادية في بلدان مختارة مع اشارة خاصة الى صندوق تنمية العراق The Developmental Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds In A Selected Countries With Special Reference To Iraq Development Fund

اسم المؤلف: خالد شامي ناشور العطواني
اسم المشرف: فلاح حسن ثويني
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: دكتوراه
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: The Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) become, By Controlling a Huge Financial Assets and Increased Impact Within International Financial Markets, a Fundamental Pillar of Investment Through The World and One of The Most Important Indicators of Financialability of counties that owned themBecause They Can , BY(SWFs) , Converting The Financial Surpluses Coming From Natural Resources Into Productive Assets That Lead to Diversifying Income Sources , Achieving Fair Wealth Distribution Among Generations, Reducing Economic Shocks Effect, Stabilizing The Economy and Enhancing The Development. This Thesis Deals With The Problem of Countries That Depend on Revenues Coming From Natural Resources (Especially Iraq and other Developing Countries). As most of these Revenues are coming from Oil which its Prices and Revenues are Unstable, so those Countries are Exposed to Negative shocks and Structural imbalances that deepening because inefficient investment of oil revenues. Thus, the idea of establishing a (SWF) is a vital solution for the problems mentioned above and also to manage effectively the revenues coming from natural resources (non - renewable) in achieving economic stability and development. This study assumes that (SWFs) can be an important financial instrument for stabilizing the economy and for supporting the development. To Explain that, the study discusses experiments of U.A.E, Kuwait and Norway with (SWFs) and evaluates the performance of Development Fund of Iraq (DFI) in achieving different goals of the development with a perspective to adopt the idea of establishing a (SWF) consistent with the conditions of Iraq economy. The study concludes that an independent and qualified management with clear and transparent strategy are the main requirements for a (SWF) to be effective and productive in its role to achieve stability and development that can be seen by experiment of Norway. For Iraq, the study concludes that although (DFI) has successes in financing some economic sectors, but it suffers from major weaknesses like unclear strategy, inefficient management, unqualified control and unavailable data. Thus, (DFI) was unable to perform an effective role in supporting stability and sustainable development. The research suggest that Iraq needs to establish its own (SWF) with independent and qualified management to protect its natural resources, especially oil, and to direct financial surpluses coming from oil reasonably to assure sustainability for development and generations.

قياس اثر الانفاق العام في التشغيل للمدة (2003 - 2014) العراق : حالة دراسية Measuring Impact of public expenditure on Employment in Iraq for the period (2003 - 2014).

اسم المؤلف: علي هادي حميد الدلفي
اسم المشرف: عبد الكريم عبد الله محمد المشهداني
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد
الدرجة: ماجستير
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تعد سياسة الانفاق العام ركنا اساسيا من اركان السياسة المالية, ذلك لما لها من اهمية في التاثير على الاقتصاد الكلي, لذلك تعد من ابرز الادوات الفاعلة التي تستعملها السياسة المالية في التاثير على الطلب الكلي فضلا عن انها تعد احد وسائل السياسة المالية التي تعتمدها الحكومة لتوليد فرص عمل, والحد من ظاهرة البطالة, ومن ثم تحفيز النمو للاقتصاد الكلي للبلد.ومن هذا المنطلق يهدف البحث الى بيان اثر الانفاق العام في التشغيل في العراق اثناء مدة البحث, ومن ثم قياس وتحليل الانفاق الجاري والانفاق الاستثماري في التشغيل في العراق, باستعمال الاساليب القياسية المتقدمة بالاعتماد على انموذج (ARDL), وعلى وفق البرنامج الاحصائي (Eviews9) المتطور, والتحقق من مدى فاعلية السياسة المالية التوسعية في توليد فرص عمل مضافة في الاقتصاد العراقي. ان دراستنا تفترق عن الدراسات السابقة كونها لجات الى بيان اثر الانفاق العام (الجاري والاستثماري) في التشغيل اثناء السنوات السابقة التي مرت على العراق للمدة (2003 - 2014) اي من حيث المدة والمكان, كما ان الباحث تطرق الى ابرز السياسات المولدة للتشغيل .وتوصل البحث الى ان المتغيرات ساكنة عند الفرق الاول, وذلك على وفق اختبار جذر الوحدة, مما يعني رفض فرضية العدم, بسبب عدم وجود اتجاه في تحليل البيانات, كما ان النموذج لا يعاني من مشكلة الارتباط الذاتي ومشكلة اختلاف التباين, كما ان البواقي موزعة توزيعا طبيعيا وان النموذج ساكن هيكليا, ووجود علاقة طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات, اذ ان الانفاق الجاري(LX2) اكثر تاثيرا في التشغيل في الاجل الطويل والتي بلغت (0.33%) عند تغيره((1%, بينما نجد ان الانفاق الاستثماري(LX3) عند تغيره ((1% يؤدي الى تغير التشغيل بمقدار (0.0011%) اي انه (الانفاق الاستثماري) لم يكن تاثير في التشغيل في الاجل الطويل, مما يعني وجود ضعف في العلاقة(المرونة) في هذا الانفاق الاستثماري, كما ان سببية كرانجر(Granger) اوضحت وجود علاقة سببية بين الانفاق (الجاري) وتشغيل القوة العاملة وباتجاه واحد. | Publie expenditure policy is a corneston of fisical policy because of it,s importance in influencing the macroeconomic, So it considers one of the most effective tools used by financial policy to Influence aggregate demand, and therefore regards as a means of fisical policy which is adopted py state to creat jobs and reducing unemployment and thus stimulate growth in the country. The aim of this paper is to Show the impact of the public expenditure on employmentin Iraq during the period undercosideration and there fore, measuring and analyzing the influerce of operational and Investment expenditure upon employment in Iraq py using ARDL model . In addition, the paper odentified the log ran relation ship between employment and operational pinvestment expenditure. The reseache shows that if we increase investment expenditure by 1% this will lead to in creas employment by 0.33%, ceteris paribus, while if we increase investment expenditure by 1%, this will Lead to decreate employment - by(0.0011%),Ceterisparibus. . This result means that there is a Leakage in this expenditure. The paoer, alos, reveal,s that there is a causal relation ship between operational investment and employment,According Granger - Causaility.