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قياس وتحليل العلاقة بين تحرير التجارة الخارجية والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (2003 - 2014) باستخدام نموذج ARDL == Measuring And Analyzing The Relationship Between International Trade Liberalization And Economic Growth In Iraq For The Period (2003 - 2014) By Using (Ardl) Model
Author name:
عمار نعيم زغير الجناني
Supervisor name:
عبد الكريم عبد الله محمد المشهداني
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
Mustansiriyah University
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4273 - p.pdf
Abstract:
يهدف هذا البحث الى قياس وتحليل العلاقة بين تحرير التجارة الخارجية والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (2014 - 2003) باستعمال نموذج (ARDL), وينطلق من فرضية مفادها ان النمو الاقتصادي في العراق يستفيد من الصادرات والاستيرادات, ولغرض التحقق من هذه الفرضية تم تحو | This research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between The liberalization of international trade and economic growth in Iraq. The period (2003 - 2014) using ARDL model , This research is derived from a main - hypothesis adopted in this paper is that economic growth in Iraq will benefit from the exports and imports , To achieve this hypothesis ,Annual data is converted to quarterly data; as well as the use of augmented Dickey - Fuller Test , applying ARDL model and tests for the second order tests , applying and error correction model (ECM) , in addition to The Test for Granger causality. The research concluded that there is a long - run equilibrium relationship between GDP and exports and Imports, We also can see a quick response in the GDP when exports and Imports are changing. It also shows that exports have the largest proportion; And exports account for the largest Proportion , The estimated Model Reflects A very high level of quality assessment; This also illustrate the value of the coefficient of determination amounting to (%92) , as well as the fact that the estimated model does not suffer from the problem of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity , as well as parameters stability as reflected in CUSUM test. The assessment results refered that a(%10) change in exports on the long - run will lead to a(%3.42) change in GDP , ceteris paribus. It also refered that a(%10) change in imports will leads to a decreas in GDP by (% - 0.08) , ceteris paribus and this is insignificant because P - value is more than more (%5). This is emphasize by the hypothesis states that “export - lead - growth”.
