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توظيف الخوارزمية الوراثية في انشاء تصاميم القطاعات غير الكاملة المتزنة == Construction of Balanced Incomplete Blocks Design (B.I.B.D.) By Using Genetic Algorithms (G.A.)

Author name: سهام دنخا خوشابا
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Some times we faced problem that either the number of treatments used in an experiment more than the number of experimental units inside the particular block or the blocks size large than the number of replicated of treatments, then we have to use incomplete blocks design (I.B.D.); in this design either the treatment appear in block or not; that means the treatment may appear or not in a block, also when the treatments appear in a pair of treatments, this design called balanced incomplete block design (B.I.B.D.). This case makes the B.I.B.D. important by using the randomization to distribute the treatments inside the blocks and create Incidence Matrix, where its elements either zero when the treatment not appears or one when the treatment appears. This kind of design is important in many fields of study especially in the agriculture and in the veterinary medicine …etc. The aims of the previous studies was to find the way for construction of B.I.B.D..Till now the studies keep going to find out the new ways or methods for construction.The aim of this study is to find out a new way for construction. A new way for construction the incident matrix by using steps for building “Genetic Algorithms”, is discussed Genetic Algorithms are theoretically and empirically proven to provide a robust search in a complex spaces.

مقارنة بعض اختبارات ملاءمة نماذج السلاسل الزمنية ذات الرتب الدنيا باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison of Some Diagnostic Checking Tests For Time Series Models With Low Order By Using Simulation

Author name: سهاد احمد احمد
Supervisor name: احلام احمد جمعة
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان دراسة السلسلة الزمنية تتطلب دقة في وصف ملامح الظاهرة (العملية) التي تتولد منها، سواء من حيث تفسير طبيعة تلك الظاهرة وسلوكها واستخدام النتائج للتنبوء بسلوكها في المستقبل اخذين بنظرالعناية التحقق عما يمكن حدوثه عند تغيير بعض معلمات الانموذج. ويمكن استخ | Studying time series requires an accurate description for the features of phenomena (procedure) that generates time series according to its nature and behavior interpretation. After that, we can use these results for forecasting to the future taking under consideration : examine to what would happen after changing some of the model parameters, use the standard (depended) methods for testing the accuracy of the identified model which has ability for taking errors in the procedure, and provide balancing condition between model diagnosing and simplicity as well as. This research aims to use some of tests concern with diagnosing of the identified model, and make comparisons among these tests meanwhile. The researcher took some of tests, especially, the modern ones, represented by Dm test which depends on partial autocorrelation function, and which depends on autocorrelation function. We use ARMA models with lower order : [AR (1), MA (1), ARMA (1,1)] that Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we use the tests concern with linear hypothesis diagnosing for the previous three models, represented by squaring the model errors. We use also, the modified tests in this field. In addition, we use some of nonlinear models, as "Threshold" model, and taking self - exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) as a special case. The analysis of time series considered time range under model stationary. Methodology of the research depends on both the theoretical part (Statistical theory usage), and the empirical part (Simulation). The structure of the research has mainly based on four chapters as follow : chapter ONE, consists an introduction, the goal of the research and the historical literature. While chapter TWO, covers the statistical methods that take part describing and modeling the time series, as well as explain the main concepts of time series such as "Stationary". We show also, the "mixed" model with lower order, crossing to examining the diagnosing through some of the standard and modern tests which depends on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the standardized residual series that obtained from the original series of the model, by testing the randomization of the model errors and make checking for its convenience and accuracy. Furthermore, we use the modified tests : ( , , )and (Kwan & Sim) test represented by ( , , ) to determine the linear hypothesis diagnosing by compute the standardized residual series squares of the error in the previous three models that mentioned above. We use nonlinear model (SETAR) as well as. Chapter THREE, devoted for the empirical part which contains illustrations to all of what mentioned in chapter two. The researcher has designed some of experiments for purpose of comparing the (standard, modern and modified) tests through computing (P - value) for each model at (0.01) significant level at many simulated parameters, with different sample sizes, and for a number of periods of lags at each sample size, by replicating the experiment (1000) times. Finally, chapter FOUR comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the researcher had recommended

استعمال اشجار الانحدار التصنيفية والانحدار اللوجستي في تقدير انموذج تجميعي والمقارنة بينهما مع تطبيق عملي == Using Classification Regression Trees And Logistic Regression To Estimate Additive Model Comparison With Application

Author name: سهاد احمد احمد
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعاني بعض الظواهر من وجود حالة اضطراب في بياناتها بالاضافة الى صعوبة صياغتها وخصوصا مع وجود عدم وضوح في استجابتها، او لكثرة الاختلافات الجوهرية التي تعتري الوحدات التجريبية التي تم اخذ هذه البيانات منها. فعندما تزداد المجاميع لمجتمع ما, لا يمكن اعتبار ذل | Often suffer phenomena and there is disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. When growing groups of a population, it can't be regarded as a homogeneous population is increasing because the dispersion between the experimental units in response to that population as well as the error will also be increasingly difficult to build a model of that population.So there was a need to include an estimation method on the classification or underlying discrimination for these pilot units using discrimination or create segments for each item of these pilot units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more in line style.Has been resorting to the use of the method of a modern and flexible classification is based on the neighborhoods between the views represented by the response variable by classification regression trees : CART. It was the use bayesian approach and the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and collect trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage fork on the other hand, represented the bayesian classification regression trees : BART.In view of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of science it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science swarm of birds and other originally illustrated algorithm for the purposes of technology pertaining to distinguish between images or vibrational radio, etc., can be harnessed to serve the knowledge of statistics, which is based Turn on the information production and to achieve success in it. So is the use of genetic algorithm and submit a proposal by modified genetic algorithm, in addition to C4.5 and ID3 algorithms. And without losing the generality has been used as a tool of logistic analysis as important tool.It was a whole performance along with an estimate of the general additive model method of classification of all the methods mentioned in the above. Fitted model as modern and flexible overcomes curse of dimensionality that may occur most modern phenomena of the times when their data analysis.It was the use of simulated samples of different sizes (200, 400, 600) with (1000) replicates. The application was performed on patients with diabetes data for those aged (15) years and below are taken from the sample size (200) was withdrawn from the children hospital/ Al - Eskan/ Baghdad.As proof of the goodness of classification has been using the misclassification error, and as proof of the goodness of estimation has been using the root mean squares error.Was reached important conclusions through a process of differentiation among the six methods above, the superiority of the Classification and Regression Trees Algorithm (CART) is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in empirical side, when proposed Genetic Algorithm is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in applied side.

دراسة احصائية لوفيات الاطفال الرضع لمحافظة نينوى للفترة 1987 - 2004

Author name: سما سعدي علي الهاشمي
Supervisor name: عبد الحسين زيني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الاحصاء السكاني ( الديموغرافي ) من العلوم المهمة في الوقت الحاضر، فهو الدراسة الاحصائية للسكان وخصائصهم وفعالياتهم وتغييراتهم من حيث التكاثر والوفاة والانتقال والعوامل التي تؤثر فيها والنتائج التي تنشا عنها. من اهم التغيرات التي تحدث على السكان ه

اشتراك توزيعي ويبل وتكوين توزيع الباي ويبل == The Participation of Two Weibull Distributions And The Formation of Bi - Weibull Distribution

Author name: سلام جاسم محمد الساعدي
Supervisor name: علي عبد الحسين صالح الوكيل
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية باعتباره علما يتعامل مع اعمار المعدات ولاسيما احتمالات البقاء ومتوسط الحياة وهذا يعود بالاساس الى التطور التكنولوجي السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات. وعلى هذا الاساس فان در | The wide increasing concern of studying the topic of reliability as a science dealing with equipment ages, especially the survival and life average probabilities rendered to the fast technological development and the utility of complicated electronic systems in various fields. On that basis, the studying the topic of reliability and the connection between the theoretical and applied sides together have a great importance because they are considered the indicator towards stating the extent of efficiency and capacity of the machine and the work system without damages for a long period of time, accordingly, the study of (Weibull Distribution) is a sample of failure functions because this distribution is suitable when failure rates are high relatively at the operating start, then these rates decrease gradually with time increase. Accordingly, the thesis includes mainly a display of a new sample of joint distributions which is known as (Bi - Weibull). This kind of distribution gives more elasticity and more accurate results.Hence, the basic statistical measures and the parameter estimation of (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) were found through (MLE) by using the simulation method (Inverse Formula). In order to reach the research aim, the research is divided into five chapters. Chapter one deals with the topic general backgrounds and function definition including the reliability function. Whereas chapter two is dedicated to expose the methods of estimating the parameters of the (2 - Parameter Weibull Distribution) with displaying the basic statistical measures of (2 and 3 - Parameter Weibull Distributions). As to chapter three, it includes the theoretical side of (Bi - Weibull Distribution) with the exposure of the following three states of this distribution : - (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (5 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (6 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) with their basic statistical measures.Chapter four manifests the research programs and simulation results as well as result analysis. Chapter five includes the conclusions and recommendations the researcher has arrived at

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة التمهيدية لدوال اللب متعدد المتغيرات وتوظيفها في الدوال التمييزية مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Smoothing of Estimate Methods For Multivariate Kernel Functions And Employs Them In Discriminants Functions With Practical Application

Author name: سكينة شامل جاسم
Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان التحليل التمييزي (Discriminant Analysis ) غالبا ما يعاني من مشكلة صغر حجم العينة ( SSS ) Small Simple Size خاصة عندما يتم تطبيقها لتصنيف انماط عالية الابعاد مثل (التعرف على الوجه، حركة اليد وحركة الجينات الوراثية و...)، او عندما تكون البيانات لديها | The linear discriminant analysis often suffer from small sample size (sss) problem.especially when they are applied for the classification of high_dimenssional patterns. Such as (face recognition) or when data is distributed normal distribution but when they are non _ linear and has spread widely. We are dealing with this problem by using a technique of kernel discriminant analysis. because this technique depends on the kernel density estimation which belong to the class of estimates. it is commonly perform Avery important technique for visualizing data distribution and smoothing. It is unimportant to procedure in the explanatory data analysis, as that used in kernel discriminate analysis well known by researchers. To identify statistical. patterns. it is also known that these estimates are. Based mainly on the choice of bandwidth parameter end controlled on smoothing of estimation and to choice kernel function. has been the use of carton methods to estimate band width parameter it is : plugin methad Least square Cross validation method Smoothed Cross validation method Are selected as a parameter of bandwidth and use in kernel density estimation (KDE( and then employ them in kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) approach. Through the joint base for groups is a kernel discriminant rule (KDR) which rely heavily on density classified (f ?_j) and probability of prior (? ?_j).therefore the problem of multiple class(The use of several variables) will be more important and visible to be parameter of bandwidth is different when compared with various densities classified. Finally, it was real data from the general blood cancer disease and style simulation application, as it was reached that way (KDA - SCV) is best when using the above standard compared with other methods because it gave the misclassification rate least.in the practical side results showed in such a way that nine people were the first (n1... n9) of the first group are infected with disease among 50 people is infected and 12 people from the second group infected with the Lisu people living with and they (n45... n50 and n1... n6 ).

مقارنة بعض الطرائق اللبية في تقدير نماذج الانحدار اللامعلمي بوجود بيانات تامة وغير تامة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods For Kernel Models In Complete And Incomplete Data

Author name: سعد كاظم حمزة
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | مناف يوسف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان استخدام النماذج المعلمية يتطلب العديد من الشروط الاولية التي يجب توافرها لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثون الى البحث عن نماذج اقل صرامة من النماذج المعلمية وتمثلت هذه النماذج بالنماذج ال | Using of parametric models require a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models. One of nonparametric methods important for estimating nonparametric regression function known as (kernel estimation) to be used for estimating any statistical function which is (smooth estimator) free of disorders modifying the observations and approximating estimated regression function to real nonparametric regression function. Hence, the researcher showed some kernel methods to estimate the nonparametric regression function in both cases complete data (FNW, FLLS, VNW, VLLS) and incomplete data (FSNW, VSNW, FINW, VINW, FSLLS, VSLLS, FILLS, VILLS) and compared them through the simulation method as well as using different models and different sizes of samples and variants. From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best smoother was (FLLS) by using the first model, while by using the second model, it was shown that the best smoother was (VLLS) and in the third model was (VNW). In case of incomplete data, the best smoother was (VSLLS) by using the first and second models while by using the third model, the best smoother was (VSNW)

بعض المقدرات الحصينة لقدرة الطيف وفق الانموذج المختلط ARMA مع تطبيق عملي == Some Robust Estimators For Power Spectrum According To The Arma Models With Application

Author name: سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهدف الاطروحة ايجاد افضل مقدر(التقدير الامثل) لدرجة ارتداد الانموذج المختلط ARMA ذي الدرجات المتدنية لقدرة الطيف Power Spectrum والحصول على امثلية التنبؤ، اذ ان مشكلة الاطروحة تكمن في خطا اعتماد اساليب تقدير درجة الارتداد قبل اطفاء اثر الشواذ التجميعية ( | The Aim of The thesis is finding the best estimator (optimal estimate) the degree of rebound mixed model ARMA with low scores to Power Spectrum and get optimizing forecasting, As the problem of the thesis lies the mistake of adopting methods of estimating rebound degree before extinguishing (AO) Outliers (additives Values) in an estimate operation based on data series without getting rid of the effect of the presence of Outliers. According to This thesis addressing the Existence of the Outliers, in particular, (AO) Outliers after addressing the existence of Outliers, then starting estimate the optimization for a rebound.When interest in Robust estimates we must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models is defined due to lack of stability in addition to the difficulty of knowing specimen probabilistic it appears at first paragraph leap suddenly are called stereotypes Bahawaz Innovation Outlier, late to be the behavior of independent gay behavior values the other called Bahawaz aggregate Additive Outliers.When interest in estimates fortified must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models Unlimited Parameters is defined due to lack of Stationarity in addition to the difficulty of knowing probabilistic model ,it appears at first paragraph sudden leap are called Innovation Outlier, or be an independent behavior of other values called Additive Outliers.Shows the experimental side of the Thiess through a standard MSE, MAPE preference of Robust method on the Unrobes for all sample sizes and for all primary parameters assumed values, as well as for all default frequencies values (Wi), have an adverse impact in terms of efficiency when models ARMA (0,1), ARMA ( 0.2), and very slight variation when the model ARMA (1,1) the impact of outliers and the supposed frequencies (w) = [1/4, 1 / 3.3, 1 / 2.5, ½] small.The nature of the electrical signal surveyed of heart (ECG - Electrocardiogram) a vital signal , unstable and the form of Signal spectrum reflects the Performance of the human heart muscle and its health.is random changes sharp and irregular in time series represents the work of the heart of a natural person (without straining) include what is known Outliers caused by its actual nature not the result of errors in the measurement or the register, which makes them do not follow a particular distribution, led to the difficulty of conducting Assessments for Power spectrum according to the traditional methods of estimation that assumes distributed statistically,In addition to that the data generation processes require the availability of basic assumptions is inconsistent with the nature of the Heart signal ECG, and to minimize or reduce these assumptions adopted by the simulation approach often leads to unrealistic and far from the real system results and establishes a breakthrough for good properties of these estimates that we have made it necessary to adopt the idea of Robust estimates (M - estimate) in accordance with the Robust functions (Huber, Hample, Tukey, Andrew) in addition to the method of maximum likelihood Mle according to restricted simulations in the practical side, which serves as a purification process or soften the Estimators resulting from follow of statistical estimation methods on real data to determine the best estimators of Power spectrum and the search for the best Model and section distribution , and then apply the result of a trade - offs in according to indicator the indirect transition of the speed of the signal (?/S2) between the Estimation functions and Distributions on eight of combinations of Mixed model ARMA (p, q) and estimating MSE, RMSE and selecting the optimum combination which is ARMA (2,2) with Extreem value distribution and with Hampel function at section 200, which amounted to (MSE = 0.000109).

الاتساق الذاتي وتحليل المكونات الرئيسة == The Self - Consistency And Principal Component'S Analysis

Author name: سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعني عبارة " الاتساق - الذاتي " اختبارا لمحور المكونات الرئيسة عندما يرتكز التوزيع على المحور الذي يعطي تقريبا بسيطا للتوزيع الاصلي متعدد المتغيرات.جرت عملية الاختبار بفحص نقص المطابقة Lack of Fit Test في ضوء طريقة البوتستراب (Bootstrap ) اي ( تكرار ا | The term " Self - Consistency " means ; examine the Self - consistency of a principal components axis : when a distribution is centered on a principal component axis, which provides a simple straight line approximation to a multivariate distribution.A principal component axis of a random vector X; is self - consistent if each point on the axis corresponds to the mean of X given that X projects orthogonally on to that point.this examination is done by " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test applied on to two kinds of data set (real and simulation) with different samples (small, medium, large),depending on the probability values for getting levels of significance (to assess the self - consistency of principal component axis) which is based on the frame work of the data set, whether it will be true (towards to the elliptical form for the multivariate normal distribution) or generated data set using the restrictive simulation ( towards to the asymptotic spherical form for multivariate normal distribution ) that's for estimating the self - consistency by the hypothesis ;Hk : Yk is self - consistent for Xprincipal component analysis for factor analysis is use with the aim of analyzing the large number of variables and their effective factors by the factor rotation procedure which is assumes also the multivariate normal distribution, with proposed technique, based on the smallest column on X for different sizes of samples ( small " 5 - 20 " , medium " 25 - 50 ", and large " 60 - 100 ").High level of fit, is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit" test in all sample size for all research variable's; with little difference and the best for male group of the results for female group on the size ( 5 - 35 ) , conversely for another size's.and also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the small sample size ( 5 - 20 ) for true data set using direct oblimin rotation method for male group, in the medium sample size ( 25 - 50) using the same method with direct method( None) for female group.In generated data set by normal restricted simulation technique, also high level of fit is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test in all sample size's and for all sample Size's (small, medium, large) and for tow group's (male, female), which indicate to the usefulness of using the restricted simulation technique to take pure data set, and the model with high level of stationary.also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the different sample size's, using the varimax rotation method for tow Group's (male, female), the two method's ( none, direct oblimin rotation) in some of sample size's which refers to corresponding the normal stat with varimax rotation method ,that is well known of its object for simplified explaining the factor matrix by maximization the loading variance

مقارنة بعض الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية لبعض تصاميم القياسات المكررة == A Comparisoin of Some Parametric And Nonparametric Methods For Some Repeated Measures Designs

Author name: سجى محمد حسين علي الهاشمي
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في الكثيرمن الدراسات الطبية والتربوية والسيكولوجية (علم النفس)وعلم الاجتماع نشاهد بان المفردات (subjects) تتكرر تحت مختلف الشروط التجريبية((conditions والتي تسمى بالمعالجات (treatments) وان البيانات المتجمعة من مختلف الوحدات التجريبية تفترض لان تكون مستقل | In many medical , educational , psychology and sociology studies we find that the same subjects repeated under different experimental conditions which called treatments. The collected data from different experimental units suppose to be independent while the observation for the same experimental units will be dependent. The term repeated measures designs is called for this type of data in which the response for every experimental units or subjects is tested or measured under a number of different experimental conditions. Our attention will be on the case of a univariate response variable. There are many procedures for testing the null hypothesis that there is no treatments effects, depends on the number of treatments. either the same subjects are tested under two treatments or tested under three treatments or more. The aim of this study is comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods of repeated measures designs for two treatments through applying the tests on true experiments data. and comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods for three treatments or more, which included two designs which are the complete randomize block design when the ANOVA conditions are satisfied. And the One - way generalized repeated measures model when does not assume specified form of the variance - covariance matrix.Simulation procedures are used in order to compare probability of type one error and power of the test for all methods. In addition , the researcher presented the suggested methods and analyzing the results by comparing them with the other methods for the mentioned designs.

مقارنة اسلوب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول == A Comparison of Bayesian Approach With Another Methods To Estimate Reliability Function For Pareto Distribution of The First Kind

Author name: ستار محمد صالح
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول (Pareto Distribution of the First Kind) في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات وفي حالة عدم توافرها وتم توظيف اسلوب المحاكاة (Simulation) بطريقة مونت كارلو (Mont - Carlo) للمقارنة بين طرا | In this dissertation, an estimation of reliability function for the Pareto Distribution of the First Kind has been done in the case of exists a prior information and not exists. A simulation approach by Mont - Carlo method is used to comparisons between the methods of estimation to find the best method of estimation this function. To realizes the object of search, the search is divided into four chapters. The first chapter contain an introduction, object of search and the review of literature. The second chapter contain the theoretical part. The third chapter include the experimental part, and finally the fourth chapter include the conclusions that researcher find they and recommendations suggested from him about the search. The researcher find that the Bayes approach is the best in estimation of reliability function comparing with the other method of estimation through depending on the two statistical measurements integral Mean Squared error (IMSE), and integral Mean Absolute percentage error (IMAPE).

تحليل البيانات الثنائية لدراسة العوامل المؤثرة في حدوث التشوهات الولادية في مستشفى البصرة للنسائية والاطفال == Analysis of Binary Data : A Study of Factors Affecting Birthdefects In Basrah Hospital For Maternity & Children

Author name: ساهر حسين زين الثعلبي
Supervisor name: زهرة حسن عباس التميمي | عبد الكريم حسين صبر الجاروري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Basrah can be considered as a city that has been suffering form pollution more than any other city in the world of today. This is due to the successive wars it has undergone, the waste of the petroleum, gas, and petrochemical factories leave behind as well as the electric power generating firms this city contains. Furthermore, the location of Basrah by the sea has made the city liable to have epidemics, diseases, and birth defect. The phenomenon of distorted births is but the focus of this thesis.The researcher draws the attention of those undertaking direct or indirect responsibility so as to arrive at appropriate basic solutions. This study is an attempt at pinpointing the factors that directly or indirectly lead to the distorted births in Iraq in general, and in the city of Basrah in particular. Statistics is in order. The hypothesis of this study is that radiation may be the most serious cause of birth distortion. To verify this very hypothesis, the city of Basrah is chosen as the population and The Basrah Hospital for Maternity and children as the sample that covers the files or reports of the new - born babies during the period January - April, 2007. This sample is called " sample A". This is on the one hand. On the other hand, a special form is developed by the researcher and it is this form that forms "Sample B".Since the data collected is of a binary or dichotomous type, it is concerned with whether there is some birth distortion or not. That is why the dependable variable is referred to by 1 or 0 respectively. This type of variable is often indicated to by responding with ither "Yes", if there birth distortion; or "No" hen there is no birth distortion in medicine research. Statistically speaking, the SPSS ready - made program has been applied to data. This program has been used in social sciences and medicine research with high accuracy. The present research worker has applied a logistic model or pattern so as to study the factors that influence the occurrence of birth distortion. Among the results arrived at by the researcher is the residence of the parents Thisresult confirms the hypothesis that states that the regions exposed to the uranium radiation plays an important role in spreading birth distortion. Relatives have also proved to be influential and this is what is referred to as the hereditary or genetics variable. Finally, Rh factor is very effective in this respect. For this reason, the researcher supports all the calls for the authorities of both the public and private sectors at regional national and international levels urging them to do all they can to save the society catastrophic errors

طرائـــق بيــز فــي تحليــل نمــوذج القياس الاقتصادي المكاني مع تطبيق عملي == Bayes Methods In Analyzing Spatial Econometrics Model With Practical Application

Author name: سامي غني خضير عطره
Supervisor name: خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الخاصية الاساسية لتمييز البيانات المكانية عن بيانات السلاسل الزمنية هي الترتيب المكاني للمشاهدات , وعينات البيانات المكانية تمثل مشاهدات ترتبط بنقاط او مواقع وتتميز هذه البيانات بان ارتباطها يضعف كلما بعدت المسافة وكذلك تتميز بتدرج المكان (( المناطقية | The main property to differentiate the spatial data from time series data is the spatial arrangement of observations and the samples of spatial data represent observations related to points or locations these data are distinguished with the weakness of their connection each time the distance getting far away and the place graduation (location)on the spatial relations of observations are represented in matrix named spatial weights matrix. The spatial econometrics is used in following up the spatial effects like the spatial dependence of observations in different points of place, and spatial heterogeneity arising from relations or parameters model that change with sample data in each time we move within the place , those two points have been neglected in traditional econometrics because of their sinconsistency of statistical assumptions and when taking those spatial effects into consideration ,the statistical influence will be of high efficiency. On the contrary, ignoring these effects will lead to loss the information and will not be as efficient as the dependant sample.Because of the difficulty of deriving the posterior function (on which the Bayesian inference depends) up on applying the Bayesian methods especially in cases that the number of probable models is very large as computing the posterior functions for all these samples requires integration for large dimensions functions which is very difficult Mathematically or inapplicable that requires proper methods can deal with such cases like Gibbs and Metropolis - Hastings sampling by analyzing the posterior distribution to number of conditional distributions for each parameter in the model and then the simplicity of inference for each parameter in the model.The matrix of spatial weights is built by registering the contiguity relations for each location with others in a matrix row (w?) and given (1) if there is a relation between two locations (wij=1) and zero, if it doesn’t (wij=0)as i and j refer to the rows and columns in sequence. For making the summation of each row in the matrix w? equal to 1 , the elements of matrix will be calculated according to the proportion : wij/ ?wij and i=1,2…,n j=1 Consequently, we will get the adjusted matrix W.The practical side was focused on the counting of spatial autoregressive model parameters, and these parameters is the vector ? and it is an ordinary regression parameters vector, and error variance parameter (?2) , and the most important of them is a countig of the parameter (?) which is represent spatial dependance parameter.In order to show the role of the spatial, the practical side included taking the real population for childrens between(1 - 19) year, that had iron deficiency anemia (due to from iron deficiency) that admitted to children’s hospitals in Kurkh district of Baghdad (which had been divided into five geographic regions) for 2010. We have suggested that computing the elements in the adjusted matrix to be on basis of the actual length proportion of the joint borders among different locations that lead to get the accurate estimated value of spatial dependence parameter، where value result of spatial dependence parameter (?) was (0.43) when use Metropolis - Hastings sampling method while value of this parameter when use spatial outoregressive function and by using the adjusted matrix was( 0.57) and value of this parameter when use the same regression function but by using the suggested matrix was (0.85).

مقدرات بيز لدالة المعولية الضبابية للتوزيع الاسي باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيقها على الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية == The Fuzzy Reliability Function Bayes Estimators For Exponential Distribution Using The Simulation With It Is Application On The State Company For Elictrical Industeries

Author name: زينة ياوز عبد القادر اوجي
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يدرس البحث الضبابية والتي مفهومها ان كل قيمة تقع ضمن فترة معينة،ونعتمد في تحديد حدود هذه الفترة على الخبرات السابقة حول موضوع الظاهرة المدروسة.وفي بعض الاحيان يصعب تحديد هذه الفترة ونتعامل مع القيمة الضبابية وما حولها من القيم القريبة دون الاعتماد على ا | This paper concerned with studying the fuzzy which means that each value is within specific period and to determinate the limits of this period depends on previous expertises about the studies phenomena subject.Some times it is difficult to determine this stage or period ,in this case we deal with the fuzzy values and other proximate ones without depending on previous expertises ,because they are not available or because of te differences in points of researches,view about the determination of minimum and maxmum restriction for there values.Through this research we will treat fuzzy lifetime data that each value does not have minimum and maximum limitation which enable us to appoint the sutable belonging degrees but all lifetime data have minimum restriction which represent the begininning life time , and maximum one that represents the end of lifetime And by using membership function of Ching to determing a membership function for those data , This paper discussed two procedures to estimate the fuzzy reliability ,Bayes procedure that includes the following : 1 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter.2 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter. 3 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes a fuzzy parameter. 4 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter And FRDP (Fuzzy Reliability Definition Procedure) that uses component trapezium method,to find numerical integration ,by using the Exponential distribution form for sample data,and Gama distribution for the prier distribution for the parameter of Exponential distribution ,and four value for sample size.And depending on the results that have been conducted in the experimental side ,it is shown that bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability when the fuzzy sample data have membership degree equal to 0.1for samples of small sizes. When the failure times average value is bigger than one ,so Bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for small samples sizes,and FRDP is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for sizes of big samples The data which have been taken from the state company for electrical industries of foundation machine Toshiba are used as well after bayes method and FRDP method are applied to estimate the fuzzy reliability,it is noticed that results of both the applied and experimental side are th

مقارنة الاساليب المستخدمة في تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة مع جانب تطبيقي == The Comparison of Methods Used In Determining The Principal Components Number With An Applied Aspect

Author name: زينة ياوز عبد القادر
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: استخدم تحليل المركبات الرئيسة في تحليل الكثير من الظواهر الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، ومن هذه الظواهر اخترنا ظاهرة تخص شريحة واسعة من مجتمعنا الا وهي ظاهرة تاخر حصول التدريسي الجامعي على اللقب العلمي التالي، ولان تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة الداخلة في تحليل ا | The principal components analysis is used in analyzing many economic and social phenomena; and one of them is related to a large group in our society who are the university instructors. This phenomenon is the delay occurred in getting university instructor to his next scientific title. And as the determination of the principal components number inside the principal components depends on using many methods, we have compared between three of these methods that are : (BARTLETT, SCREE DIAGRAM, JOLLIFFE). We concluded that JOLLIFFE method was the best one in analyzing the studying phenomenon data among these three methods, we found the most distinguishing factors effecting on the phenomenon was (the number of the lectures the university instructor has, the administrative routine, the entertainment activities, family situation, shortage in academic staff, pages number, the use of the internet and the political attitude). So , we should begin with treating these factors as a first step for motivating university instructor to develop his thinking capabilities.

تحليل التجارب ثنائية العوامل المتزنة وغير المتزنة لبيان اثر عاملين على بعض صفات محصول الشلب في العراق

Author name: زينة ابراهيم حسن رشيد
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | احمد شهاب احمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان التجربة العاملية (التي تهتم في وقت واحد وتجربة واحدة بدراسة عاملين فاكثر ),اذ ان لكل عامل مستويات ,وبتوافيق مستويات العوامل تتشكل المعالجات العاملية , هذه التجربة لها اهمية كبيرة في الجوانب التطبيقية وتتسم بالمزايا : - 1انها تسهم في تقلي | 1. It contributes to reduce the cost, time, efforts, and experimental units as a result of the implementation of a single experiment, rather than two or more experiments.2. Provide us by information of the main effects of factors and the effects of interactions of these factors.3. The possibility to compare all different combinations of two or factors to be studied.4. These experiments provide an opportunity to compare the levels of each factor separately, as if the experiment was devoted to him alone.Therefore, the information that we get from factorial experiments always be more perfect and realistic than those we get from single - factor experiments.The factorial experiments held by adopting equilibrium that is oriented common and natural , it might generated cases of unbalance ( what is allocated of the number of plots for each uneven factorial treatment), which may be done on purpose by the researcher (performing the experiment) or it may be due to lack of materials or resources, which leads to identify groups of processing that will be dealt with, or for other reasons like damage or loss pieces or results of experimental subject to certain processing. Such situations cause them a problem of how to analysis it, so the goal of this message is to research deeper theoretically to contribute in find solutions for the research problem and the vast knowing of the analysis methods of the balanced and unbalanced factorial experiments, with discussing the possibility of propose a method or technique to analysis this case. since been in separate theoretical aspect of this message addressed to several ways in addition to provide a proposed way for analysis. The theoretical beside the practical aspects has been improved (Chapter three) to take an advantage of a realistic data experiments (not analyzed) carried out with the Public Board for Agricultural Research (the party was made contract with) where the experiment has been analyzed (balanced and unbalanced factorials) to study the impact of the rice verities factor and also the distances of planting the rice for many characters of the rice crops, as well as study the impact factor rice varieties and planting dates factor on some of the qualities of the rice crop has implemented in Mashkhab station in the province of Najaf, and we used the methods of the analysis presented in addition to the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the moral of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are available to use each method of analysis and the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the significant of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are made available to use all method of methods of analysis and the suggested method was as as follows : 1 - perferred to use method frequencies the expected cell in the case of that the data is unbalanced and semi - proportional.2 - perferred to use method un weighted means in the case of that the data is unbalanced and disproportional.3 - perferred to use method of harmonic mean in the case of that the data is unbalanced and two case proportional and disproportional.4 - prefer to using the suggested method (median method ) in the event that the data is is unbalanced and disproportional.5 - prefer to data analysis unbalanced without trying to estimate missing values.

دراسة تحليلية لتصاميم تجارب القطع المنشقة SPED والقطاعات المنشقة SBED مع تطبيق عملي == Analytic Study For Split Plot Experimental Design (SPED) And Split Block Experimental Design (SBED) With Practical Application

Author name: زينب فالح حمزة
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان فكرة القطع المنشقة كانت قد وجدت لتضيف الى مزايا ومواصفات التجارب العاملية فوائد تطبيقية تصب في تركيز وتحسين دقة واهمية دراسة تاثيرات العوامل والتفاعلات بينها كونها تحوي اكثر من مصدر للخطا العشوائي ونظرا لما نالته هذه الفكرة من توسع واضافات كثيرة في الج | The idea of split - plot had been found to add to the advantages of factorial experiments and specification of practical interest is in the focus and improving the accuracy and the importance of studying the effects of factors and interactions between them. they contain more than one source of random error because of the indiscriminate earned by the idea of expansion and additions in many theoretical and practical contribution to the diversity and evolution with approved design and since we have observed that the practical uses in our country , though many of it's but limited to the adoption of the idea of split - plot design or split - split only, and purpose of contributing to clarify and depend the understanding and importance in the practical aspects of these additions which has focused the aim of this research (thesis) to provide in depth analytical study of some of the designs , practiculary designs of split - plot and desins of split - Block and what could be concluded from the ideas of the designs that has practical benefits , especially in the agricultural field was taken as the theoretical aspects (models , plans , analysis ) to design of ,split - plots , split - plots systematic arrangement whole plots, split - plot in time & and analysis of Covariance and the design of split - Blokes and the designs of split - split plots & the design of combination between split - plots & split Block then the practical application had been don using The experiments in agricultural (including rice crop ,and crop of peas) Resulted modern & variety data for the year 2008 in the rice research station in Mashkhab in ALnajaf governorate in addition to data for chick pea crop obtained from the station of Rabiaa where the data were analyzed using (SAS - stetictical analysis system). the results of analysis showed that the variety Anbar 33 is the best compared to other varieties for rice crop , and the age 27 day is the best compared to other ages. The designs that have not been able to conducted, which is also not present previously in our country has been adopting the idea of simulation usin visual basic Program, as shown in the appendices ( program 1,2) done by the researcher deals the design of combination between the split _ plots and split Blocks compare it with _the design split _split plot - and the program no(2) that concerned designing split Blocks. The analysis Results for both designs performed to be used in agricultural experiment as it provides high accuracy.

بناء نموذج محاكاة لتحسين اداء انشطة مركز اورام سرطان البصرة == Building A Simulation Model To Improve The Performance of Activities of The Basrah Cancer Tumors Center

Author name: ريسان عبد الامام زعلان
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر | جواد كاظم العلي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Basrah Tumor Center is of the most important medical specialized in the field of treating cancer in the south region of Iraq but due to the very great demands of the patients which is increased year by year , it is increased the stress on the capacities of the center materially and in regards to manpower [ doctors, nurses, beds Laboratory systems and medicines] effecting considerably in providing health treatment performance accurately at all facilitations of the irrelevant to the nature of patients reviewed this center thus it is necessitated to deal with this problem by a scientific and advanced mode assisting the center to upgrade his performance towards the best and the necessary to improve the level of its treatment. Upon this base , it is applied the technique of discrete accident simulation by following the mode of upcoming event and Mont Carlo in designing the model on computer representing Basrah Tumor Center in real world detecting the deficiency points and attempt to improve it as well as forecasting with optimist number of doctors, nurses, beds and laboratory systems and instruments leading to lessening the average time of waiting and increasing the means of treatment time providing satisfactory number of beds and laboratory systems and instruments contributing in improving treatment performance at the center at all and applying the model as an experimental tool for number of scenarios and then electing the optimist scenario leading to upgrading the center to theoptimist state in regards to its performance.This study concluded a group of findings the most important of which are : 1. The possibility of the model to represent the tumor center in real world due to the random nature of processes of accessing to the service is occurred and the movement process which is occurred in the suitable time for queues.2. The study showed the inconsideration for the number of doctors so that number of doctors at the tumor clinic is not sufficient nor equivalent with the continuous increment with number of infections and number of patients especially if the situation is stand as in past years without improvement as the study indicated it would never paid the service for half number of patient in 2011 in case the manpower and material possibilities are still in the same conditions without improvement.3. The ability of the model to identify the optimist number of doctors, nurses, beds and laboratory systems and instruments for the years from 2007 through 2011. The study provided a group of recommendation the most important of which : The necessity of applying the findings of the model in re - forming the organization of the center by providing optimist number of doctors, beds, and health cadre as to it is contributed in solving the problems center is suffered from improving treatment performance at all departments of the center.

استعمال اسلوب بيز لتقدير منظومة المعادلات الانية في حالة المتغير الداخلي مصنف ثنائيا مع تطبيق عملي == Using Bayesian Approach To Estimate The Simultaneous Equations System In Case The Endogenous Variable Is Classified Binary With Application

Author name: ريسان عبد الامام زعلان
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج المعادلات الانية بالطريقة التقليدية من المواضيع المهمة والتي كتب عنها الكثير من البحوث والدراسات وهذه البحوث تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير الا ان التقدير بالطرق البيزية لهذه المعادلات وخصوصا عندما يكون ال | The process of estimation of parameters of the following equations has been done by the traditional method and being considered as an important subject. Many researches and books have been written about the subject and these researchers are different from one to another depended on the methods followed up. But the estimation with Bayesian methods for these equations , especially when the internal variables (classified binary ) being considered one of the subjects that have not been researched greatly. Thus , the researcher has tried to shed light on some methods of Simultaneous equations in case of binary variable by using the classic method and Bayesian method , along with a suggested way that being applied on the samples of the relationship between blood pressure and psychological pressure. The researcher has used the classic method and considered it as raw information for using the method of Bayesian in estimating the Simultaneous equations system. It has been compared between the classic method and Bayesian method and also methods of Bayesian with the suggested method according to the measurement of ( Mse) for specifying the better method for estimation. Problems have been specified lying in non - functionalizing the former information about the parameters in the process of estimation by using the known traditional methods and that lead to the less efficiency if not using it. Thus , it should resort to other methods as method of tradition , The goal of the study is to know the mutual interaction between the blood pressure and psychological pressure and comparing the traditional and Bayesian method in the estimation of Simultaneous equations of internal variable , classified binary by using many methods for Bayesian estimation with the suggested method for getting to estimations that are more close to values of the real parameters. it has been reached to many results ,most of which is the Bayesian method and suggested method that have been better in estimation than the classic method, besides there are mutual effects between blood pressure and psychological pressure and the most losing functions in estimation which is the " Q losing function"

استعمال الانتروبي مع طرائق اخرى في تقدير دالة بقاء توزيع كاما العام للسكان في العراق == Use The Entropy With Other Methods In Estimating The Survival Function of Generalized Gamma Distribution To The Population

Author name: رغدة زياد طارق العبيدي
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تستخدم جداول الحياة في مجالات عديدة في البحوث الديموغرافية والصحية وتمثل مؤشرا هاما للوفاة في المجتمع. ويتم احتساب جداول الحياة من بيانات الوفيات لسنة معينة للمجتمع السكاني، لذا فهو يعبر عن حالة الوفاة للمجتمع.وهناك نوعين من جداول الحياة وهي : (جداول الح | Life tables used in many fields in the demographic and health research is an important predictor of death in population. Then, calculated life tables of mortality data for a particular year the population of the community, so it reflects the rate of death of the community in somehow. There are two types of life tables, called : (Complete Life tables) and were based on the age at death on the basis of single - year age groups (0,1, 2,3,..., 81+) and were usually obtained in a manner comprehensive survey or census in order to provide detailed information on the population. The second type called (Abridged life tables) were assumed from equal death rate for ages converged with each other and are therefore based on the age at death on the five - year age groups (0 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 15,..., 80+) which is different from its predecessor and less accuracy than is obtained in a manner sample survey. In the absence of census of our beloved Iraq, where the last census was in (1997), so be getting the calculated probability of survival through accurate (survival function) within the life tables for single - year age groups was extremely difficult and mired with disorder problems you need to mathematical treatment in accordance with the distribution of probabilistic statistical but it's distributed data showed the distribution of the Generalized Gamma : (GG) with three parameters as the best fit of the data, with this distribution in turn includes the integration of (incomplete gamma function) is implicitly making it more difficult traditional appreciation. So two major goals were arise in this thesis.The first goal of a practical application goal, using (Sprague multipliers) to convert a five - year age groups into single age. The second goal of theory using the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : (POME) in assessing the function of survival and to deal and overcome the turmoil and volatility demographic data collected from (Iraq Household Socio - Economic Survey : IHSES II 2012). This thesis had studied the function estimating survival data mentioned above on two parts : the first part, parametric estimation methods which is the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : POME, the Classical method is the Maximum Likelihood : ML. The second part, has included nonparametric method to estimate survival function by nonparametric method (Kernel Smoothing) been used as (Gaussian function). The estimation methods were compared using statistical criteria are the root mean squares error (RMSE), and the average absolute percentage error (MAPE). Among the most important conclusions, was the preference for a ML method and kernel method when a simulation to get the proportions views of the probability distribution (GG) and in a manner Inverse Transformation Method : ITM only single - year age groups sized by (n = 81) and repeat the experiment (300) replicates. As well as to reach that way entropy is the best method dealt with five - year age groups, where in the case of single - year age groups, the nonparametric kernel was best in when the practical application part. Life tables using MORTPAK program as it has been considered survival function results (UN) calculated values real and comparing the methods of the three appreciation. One of the main recommendations, the use of the (POME) to overcome the turmoil of demographic data, especially a five - year age groups and the use of Sprague data conversion from five - year age groups to transactions single - year age groups and the use of nonparametric method of kernel to assess the function of survival of the single - year age groups and entropy for five - year age groups data.

تقويم بيانات الوفيات في العراق وتقدير بعض مؤشراتها == Evaluating Mortality Data In Iraq And Estimating Some Related Indices

Author name: رشا عادل سعيد
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد اتسع نطاق الدراسات الاحصائية ليشمل العديد من الميادين والقطاعات ومن ضمنها قطاع السكان، حيث اهتم الباحثون بدراسة مشاكل التعداد والقياسات المتعلقة بقطاع السكان كالولادات والوفيات والهجرة، وذلك لما لها من اهمية كبرى في مجال الادارة والتخطيط.فجاء هذا ا | The scope of statistical studies has been extended to consist many sectors. One of these sectors is population studies.The researchers studied the problems of census , and data collection related to population (i.e. Births , deaths and migration) , which is considered of great importance in the field of planning , management and development studies. This study comes as a part of the studies focused on demographic characteristics and concentrated on mortality , which is often faced by the problems of incomplete and incorrect data , mainly the lack of mortality records specially in developing countries. The study focused on mortality data in Iraq during the period 1987 - 1997 , aiming at evaluating and estimating some of the related indices such as (life expectancy at birth , age - specific mortality rates , etc.).The study excluded the region of Kurdstan (Arbil , Dohok and Sulaymania) because this region was not included in 1997 census moreover the difficulties in obtaining registered deaths in this region since 1991. The study compares three methods for estimating infant and child mortality rates (i.e. Brass method , Feeney method for estimating infant mortality and Preston - Palloni method) the study concluded that Brass method is the most relevant for estimating infant and child mortality in the light of the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. By using 1997 census data in Iraq and depending on UN. Model for developing countries (general model) , the study achieved to the adjustment of mortality probability (Logit method). In dealing with mortality for (over 5 years old persons) , three methods were compared for estimating completeness of recorded deaths (i.e. Brass growth balance method , Preston - Coale method and Bennett - Horiuchi method) based on the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. It was found that there was no reason for preferring one method on another , therefore , the three mentioned methods were used depending on registered deaths (collected from Ministry of Health data) for the period 1987 - 1997. The study results showed that Brass growth balance method was not relevant for the studied mortality data in the Iraqi society. therefore , its results were neglected , and the results of mathematical mean of Preston - Coale method and Bennet - Horiuchi method were considered as representative of completeness of recorded deaths. It was found (0.725) for males and (0.845) for females.In order to estimate some mortality indices , bridged life tables were built for the years 1997 and 2002 for males and females in Iraq. The analysis showed the rise of life expectancy at birth about (1.2) years for males and (1.3) years for females during the above mentioned period.Finally , the study discuses its conclusions and recommendations.

دراسة نظرية وتطبيقية لشبكات بيرت الاحتمالية

Author name: ربى رشيد عبد الرحمن الجلبي
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر شبكات الاعمال من الادوات المهمة في التخطيط والسيطرة على مراقبة تنفيذ المشاريع باقل كلفة ووقت ممكن اذا ما توفرت الموارد التي تغطي حاجة تلك المشاريع.ونظرا لاهمية موضوع شبكات الاعمال ارتاينا البحث فيه بهدف التوصل الى طريقة لحساب وقت انجاز المشروع الك | Networks are considers as the most important instruments in the planning are controlling probation of projects implementation with minimal cost and time if there are sufficient resources cover the need of these projects.And respect to the importance of the topic regarding networks, we saw the search in it so as to reach method for calculating time of implementation of the total project in Probabilistic PERT networks, which are different from PERT networks because each stage in Probabilistic PERT networks represent random variable which has certain probabilistic distribution. So, time of implementation of the project will be another random variable, while in PERT method the times being already specified for each stage. We shall calculating this time after finding the total probability function for networks of the project.Moreover, we shall perform striking the necessary time to doing PERT network by application Fulkerson method which depends on every possible investigations to perform the project’s stages, which concentrate on that which have the maximum possibility of an event, and so the Fulkerson method being approximation to that which depends upon the probability function, but we shall concentrate in our research on the probability function because it gives additional indicators to the performing time. This will appears as clear through comparing the results that we shall reach after application the two methods. Where this was applied practical in one of our productive enterprises and it is the public enterprise of leather industries.According to above cited, we divided a thesis into four chapters; the first, takes the introduction and the objective of the probabilistic PERT networks topic as well as topic’s background, while the second chapter takes the theoretical aspect of the topic that encompass displaying method of PERT and an analysis that depend upon beta distribution besides displaying the symbols used in Fulkerson’s method to finding the expected time for implementation of the total project and finding variance of time regarding the total implementation and then estimating the probability function to the project time. The third chapter takes an applied aspect of the topic, so after gathering data, we tested it for conformity goodness of fit and then, we calculated mean and variance of the time regarding project total performing according to PERT and Fulkerson methods, and then we have finding the mean using probability function after estimate it.The most important what we have reached from the conclusions and the recommendations we shall display it in the fourth chapter of the thesis

تاثير الغام الحروب على الرقع النفطية باستخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية : دراسة حالة - محافظة البصرة == The War Mines Effectet In The Oil Spots By Using Geographic Information Systems /Wasit Governorate - Case Study

Author name: دعاء يوسف عبد الرحمن
Supervisor name: محمد جاسم محمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نتيجة للحروب التي مر بها العراق على حدوده الشرقية ,والقصف الذي تعرض له خلال حرب الخليج (1980 - 2003) اصبحت العديد من الاراضي تحتوي على الالغام والمخلفات الحربية ,مما ادى الى ظهور مشكلة عدم استثمار الرقع النفطية التي تقع تحت المساحات الملغومة ,حيث تم استعم | The wars rate that Iraq pass it at the eastern borders, And the bombing he faced during the gulf war (2003 - 1980 ) many areas became contain Mines and remnants of the war. Causing a problem of not investing the oil spot which fall under mined areas , Geographic information systems was used in spatial analysis of the mines problem in Basra through natural distribution standard.After identifying the areas of mines presence calculated the cost by the government due to the presence of mines and remnants of war inside the oil field ( Sindbad ) and the ninth spot which are located nearby the Iraqi - Iranian border the reason for planting of many minefields by the Iraqi government and the Iranian government was that the wars which took a place in this area , And the study showed that the presence of mines and remnants wars within the oil spots the government must have a financial obligations to clear these areas from mines and make it safe for the extraction of crude oil.Although the study showed that the geographical distribution pattern of mines at the study area ( Basra ) it is close to the pattern of massed because the gathering of dangerous areas at the middle of Basra due to the proliferation of remnants of wars as a result from the air and ground bombardment to vital facilities inside the governorate. From this above we conclude not to leave and neglect any oil spot containing mines and wars remnants and conducting surveys and removals for the purpose of clearing them from the wars remnants and make it safe for the purpose of investment to benefit from oil imports , especially that the world oil price will decline over time , And to provide full protection of oil fields and wells from terrorist and military operations In spite of they are frequently locked to sabotage as arson operations by ISIS

تشخيص وتقدير دالة الانحدار اللامعلمي للبيانات المزدوجة في حالة عدم تحقق بعض فرضياته == The Diagnosis And The Estimation of The Nonparametric Regression Function of The Panal Data In Case Some of Its Hypotheses Are Not Verified

Author name: دريد حسين بدر
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اكتسبت نماذج البيانات المزدوجة اهتماما بالغا وخاصة في الدراسات الاقتصادية والطبية والمالية لانها تاخذ في الاعتبار اثر التغير في الزمن وكذلك اثر التغير في المشاهدات المقطعية على حد سواء في بيانات عينة الدراسة، فضلا عن وصف البيانات من خلال تقدير الانموذج ا | Panel data models have gained a great importance especially in economic, medical, epidemic and financial studies. Because these models take into consideration the impact of the change in time, the impact of the change in sectional views alike inherent in data of a study sample, in addition to describing data through Estimation of the appropriate model. In this thesis, we address the use of method of nonparametric regression in diagnosing and Estimation a model of panel data , as there are specific assumptions related to vector of random errors are not verified. This is because we are going to talk about a nonparametric problem and existence of Heteroscedasiticity and Auto correlated errors which make the process of Estimation wrong, or sometimes not possible. A model has been diagnosed through disclosing all of the problem of Heteroscedasiticity through the use of test (1996) (Zheng) and the problem of Auto correlation by suing test (2013) (Su and Lu). It has been indicated through handling a Nonparametric Hausman Test that the final model adequate for research data is Nonparametric Panel Data Model with Random Effects. Thus, finding Nonparametric Estimator has been tackled through dealing with each problem individually alongside with addressing methods of choosing the smoothing Bandwidth of the model of Random Effects. In case of correlated errors for all techniques of Nonparametric Regression, there are methods to deal with this problem, however all of the said depends critically on addressing estimation methods reliant on finding the choice of an optimal smoothing Bandwidth using more accurate standard until the removal of error process to attain an edited smoothing Bandwidth , of any correlation, is achieved. Then, we could Estimation a model by using Estimation methods. In case of Heteroscedastisity, treatment could be achieved through determining weight by Kernel Estimator, then to be used for the exclusion of the effects of Heteroscedasticity in the study variables through using estimation methods and provision of proposals for classic Nonparametric methods. The formulation of simulated experiments of used models and verification of performance of traditional and proposed methods, for all sample sizes and three levels of standard deviation trough the use of (RAMSE) standard, have been carried out in this thesis. One of the most significant objectives of this study is the selection of the best Estimation method produced by simulation through applying it on a group of balanced Panel Data (longitudinal). This could be conducted through carrying out a practical application to state the effect of the role of gross domestic product on fixed market prices measured in a US Dollar (x) in the state budget measured in millions US Dollars (y) for the period (2003 - 2015). This could be approached through depending on genuine data related to general budget for the Arab States measured by millions US Dollars. The gross domestic product has been focused on since it is the most important economic variable that impacts the budget, as an explanatory variable according to the viewpoint of the competent people for the period (2003 - 2015). The main conclusion in the experimental side is a clear preference in absolute terms to the fortified proposal of Least Square Support Vector Machine for Regression by using an (MGCV) standard on other used Estimation methods. This is in case existence of Auto Correlation as well as provision of a verified proposal for Propose (LCNE), relying on a Span, a selection standard, on other used Estimation methods in case existence of Hetroscedasticity, of all sample sizes, all cases and three levels of three standard deviation. As to practical side, an appropriate model has been diagnosed. Also, compatibility of the best method has been proven in the experimental side alongside with practical one, and the most appropriate for a model by using (RAMSE) standard

حول تصاميم القطع المخططة

Author name: داليا هشام عبد الرحمن الشيخلي
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لا شك فيه ان للتجارب العاملية اهمية كبيرة في دراسة تاثيرات العوامل الرئيسية وتفاعلاتها، وتعد تجارب القطع الشريطية او المخططة Strip - plot Experiments او ما يسمى بتجارب القطاعات المنشقة split - Block Experiments احدى فروع او حالات التجارب العاملية حيث | There is no suspicion that the practical experiment have a great importance in studying the major factors and their activities ,and the Strip - Plot experiment or what it called Split - Block experiment considered as one of the practical experiments brunches where the steps are divided in the Analyzing Differentiation Diagram to three combinations , the first one is for the queues, the second one is for the colons, and the third one is for the experimental units which produced from crossing the queue with the colon with noticed that the horizontal and vertical strips should be in a vertical line with each other so there is no relation between their sizes. The levels of one factor normally distribute randomly over the strips of the queues and the levels of the other factor, and also randomly over the strips of the colons. By changing the randomization category (put the restrictions on the way of randomization) many kinds of designing the Strip - Plot appears. Hence, the aim of this research came to put the spot on these categories and put their mathematics sample, the statistical analyzing of each category, their usage’s, their characteristics, their features and their standard mistakes and to test the differences between the treatments average by using the method of Least Significant Differences. We cleared how to treat the problem of the one replication (because of loosing the mistakes) to test hypotheses by two methods. Finally we applying the kinds of the strip - plot designs practically standing on an experiment diagrams done in Abo Guraib Station yield that belong to Eebaa Center For Agricultural Researches. The program was written in ( Visual Basic ) language to make the statistic analysis for these experiments and applying practically the treatment of the repetition one.
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