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تقويم بيانات الوفيات في العراق وتقدير بعض مؤشراتها == Evaluating Mortality Data In Iraq And Estimating Some Related Indices

Author name: رشا عادل سعيد
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد اتسع نطاق الدراسات الاحصائية ليشمل العديد من الميادين والقطاعات ومن ضمنها قطاع السكان، حيث اهتم الباحثون بدراسة مشاكل التعداد والقياسات المتعلقة بقطاع السكان كالولادات والوفيات والهجرة، وذلك لما لها من اهمية كبرى في مجال الادارة والتخطيط.فجاء هذا ا | The scope of statistical studies has been extended to consist many sectors. One of these sectors is population studies.The researchers studied the problems of census , and data collection related to population (i.e. Births , deaths and migration) , which is considered of great importance in the field of planning , management and development studies. This study comes as a part of the studies focused on demographic characteristics and concentrated on mortality , which is often faced by the problems of incomplete and incorrect data , mainly the lack of mortality records specially in developing countries. The study focused on mortality data in Iraq during the period 1987 - 1997 , aiming at evaluating and estimating some of the related indices such as (life expectancy at birth , age - specific mortality rates , etc.).The study excluded the region of Kurdstan (Arbil , Dohok and Sulaymania) because this region was not included in 1997 census moreover the difficulties in obtaining registered deaths in this region since 1991. The study compares three methods for estimating infant and child mortality rates (i.e. Brass method , Feeney method for estimating infant mortality and Preston - Palloni method) the study concluded that Brass method is the most relevant for estimating infant and child mortality in the light of the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. By using 1997 census data in Iraq and depending on UN. Model for developing countries (general model) , the study achieved to the adjustment of mortality probability (Logit method). In dealing with mortality for (over 5 years old persons) , three methods were compared for estimating completeness of recorded deaths (i.e. Brass growth balance method , Preston - Coale method and Bennett - Horiuchi method) based on the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. It was found that there was no reason for preferring one method on another , therefore , the three mentioned methods were used depending on registered deaths (collected from Ministry of Health data) for the period 1987 - 1997. The study results showed that Brass growth balance method was not relevant for the studied mortality data in the Iraqi society. therefore , its results were neglected , and the results of mathematical mean of Preston - Coale method and Bennet - Horiuchi method were considered as representative of completeness of recorded deaths. It was found (0.725) for males and (0.845) for females.In order to estimate some mortality indices , bridged life tables were built for the years 1997 and 2002 for males and females in Iraq. The analysis showed the rise of life expectancy at birth about (1.2) years for males and (1.3) years for females during the above mentioned period.Finally , the study discuses its conclusions and recommendations.

تحليل الاهداف الانمائية للالفية في العراق == Study The Statistical Analysis of The Millennium Development Goals In Iraq

Author name: رسول هادي عبد المنعم
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The goal of the Millennium Development Goals is to promote development by improving social and economic conditions in the poorest countries in Amah at The United Nations Declaration on the Millennium adopted by all Member States in September - September - 2000 of the most important decisions of the General Assembly taken at the end of the last century, as is in a number of commitments aimed at improving the lot of man at the beginning of the third millennium, to conclude that these goals a commitment to development and security, peace and gender equality and the elimination of the multiple dimensions of poverty and achieve sustainable development. It should be noted that most of the goals set by the announcement of the Millennium is not new but derived from the recommendations of global conferences held in the nineties and which was adopted rules and international laws over the past Considered as indicators of the Millennium Development multifaceted, as it contributes in the monitoring of economic and social changes, in addition to the preparation of development plans to improve the status of activities that suffer from a lack of performance at the state level, either at the level of the world are through the provision of indicators for international comparisons, which helps in making decisions on economic, trade and deal with external debt... Etc., and come to the donor countries to take decisions on aspects of assistance, especially emergency assistance and direct form of assistance with time and according to the monitoring of changes in society. And that the goals are the results rather than inputs, where that eating the Millennium Development Goals focuses mostly on the eight goals and objectives of digital and the time frame for achieving them to be a reference to evaluate and monitor the development goals in countries Almokhtlfahomen this sense Akhtaralbages this research and using the system of statistical programs ready SPSS to get to the adoption of analytical methodology using my style factor analysis and cluster analysis in the analysis of these indicators at the level of the provinces where the state acquires Find in the Millennium Development Goals in Iraq is particularly important because of the national decline in the indicators of social and economic development and seek to adopt policies that are in achieving those goals.The research includes five chapters include the first chapter Mekdmaaama and the idea of the Millennium Development Goals, data sources and target research and methodology, and backgrounds of study submitted for analysis of global and cluster analysis and research topic also included Chapter II Showing the Millennium Development Goals, targets and indicators with a brief description on the indicators that have been taken under consideration and an outline of the efforts made in the Arab region in achieving the Millennium Development Goals and the statement of its progress and achievements and its attention to these goals, the third chapter has included explaining factor analysis and cluster analysis used in the statistical analysis included the fourth quarter the interpretation of the results obtained through the study (Urban and Rural Areas), and attended, and Rural Areas [The fifth chapter has included the conclusions and recommendations

دراسة نظرية وتطبيقية لشبكات بيرت الاحتمالية

Author name: ربى رشيد عبد الرحمن الجلبي
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر شبكات الاعمال من الادوات المهمة في التخطيط والسيطرة على مراقبة تنفيذ المشاريع باقل كلفة ووقت ممكن اذا ما توفرت الموارد التي تغطي حاجة تلك المشاريع.ونظرا لاهمية موضوع شبكات الاعمال ارتاينا البحث فيه بهدف التوصل الى طريقة لحساب وقت انجاز المشروع الك | Networks are considers as the most important instruments in the planning are controlling probation of projects implementation with minimal cost and time if there are sufficient resources cover the need of these projects.And respect to the importance of the topic regarding networks, we saw the search in it so as to reach method for calculating time of implementation of the total project in Probabilistic PERT networks, which are different from PERT networks because each stage in Probabilistic PERT networks represent random variable which has certain probabilistic distribution. So, time of implementation of the project will be another random variable, while in PERT method the times being already specified for each stage. We shall calculating this time after finding the total probability function for networks of the project.Moreover, we shall perform striking the necessary time to doing PERT network by application Fulkerson method which depends on every possible investigations to perform the project’s stages, which concentrate on that which have the maximum possibility of an event, and so the Fulkerson method being approximation to that which depends upon the probability function, but we shall concentrate in our research on the probability function because it gives additional indicators to the performing time. This will appears as clear through comparing the results that we shall reach after application the two methods. Where this was applied practical in one of our productive enterprises and it is the public enterprise of leather industries.According to above cited, we divided a thesis into four chapters; the first, takes the introduction and the objective of the probabilistic PERT networks topic as well as topic’s background, while the second chapter takes the theoretical aspect of the topic that encompass displaying method of PERT and an analysis that depend upon beta distribution besides displaying the symbols used in Fulkerson’s method to finding the expected time for implementation of the total project and finding variance of time regarding the total implementation and then estimating the probability function to the project time. The third chapter takes an applied aspect of the topic, so after gathering data, we tested it for conformity goodness of fit and then, we calculated mean and variance of the time regarding project total performing according to PERT and Fulkerson methods, and then we have finding the mean using probability function after estimate it.The most important what we have reached from the conclusions and the recommendations we shall display it in the fourth chapter of the thesis

استعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز للتنبؤ بكمية الانتاج لبعض المنتجات النباتية والحيوانية في محافظة بغداد == Using Box And Jenkins Models To Forecasting The Amount of Production of Some Plant And Animal Products In Baghdad Province

Author name: رباب علي عبد الرحمن السهيل
Supervisor name: ايمان محمد عبد الله المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد القطاع الزراعي المتمثل بالانتاج النباتي والحيواني في العراق من القطاعات الرئيسة في الاقتصاد العراقي اذ يساهم في تكوين الناتج القومي الاجمالي، ويعد اهمال القطاع الزراعي من المراحل الاولى لظهور بوادر الازمة الغذائية احد اهم العوامل الكامنة وراء تعميق ال | The agricultural sector of plant and animal production in Iraq is one of the key sectors of the Iraqi economy wich contributes to the formation GNP, the neglect of the agricultural sector from the early stages of the emergence of signs of food crisis. One of the main factors behind the deepening food shortages in addition to the lack of succes of agricultural policies in placet o reduce the dependency of food outside and achieve self - suffciency in the country and that any development strategy to achieve food security in the country must take a development in the agricultural sector. To be able to study the changes that happen in the economic phenomena in the future and determining the values of these changes has tob e set up to rely on time - series analysis and that the time series have some numerical values for a statistical index that reflects the change phenomenon for time, and there are some analysis for the series in time zone from the most important statistical methods that are used to predict the values of random phenomena in the future based on what happend in the past, wich helps in future plan for a peaceful economic development and the most important methods are the time series model developed by the Box - Jenkins methodology for a seasonal subseries plot or a spectral plot. The research aims to predict the amount of domestic production and import of all of the Tomato and Chicken, so using the best model of the Box - Jenkins models.And in the search data to quantity of domestic production and import of each tomato and chicken in Baghdad province - Iraq BI - monthly inputs for time zone between January 2012 until december 2014, at rate of 72, the data was obtained from the directorate of Agriculutral - Baghdad Al Reafa - Statistics department. It’s also has been updated into the gretl program. The study consisted of both the theoretical side of the identification of the theoretical foundations of the Box - Jenkins methodology of the time series and after that the applied to the side of the the best model to predict domestic production to quantity and import of each tomato and chicken, after all that the researcher have a some conclusions and recommendations that benefit the peaceful development and plans for the advancement of the agricultural sector and the most important thing is, that the imported Tomatoes and Chickens is more than the locally produced ones, which indicates that the country depends on the imported Tomatoes and Chickens more than the produced.

اثر عوامل الجذب والطرد لسكان المحافظات في العراق للفترة (1997م - 2011م) (عدا اقليم كوردستان) : دراسة احصائية == The Effect of Attraction And Expulsion Factors of Population In The Provinces of Iraq For Period (م 1997 - م2011) (Except Kurdistan) - Statistical Study

Author name: دري حميد جاسم السلامي
Supervisor name: سعد احمد عبد الرحمن النعیمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد نظرية عوامل الجذب والطرد من اكثر النظريات شيوعا في تحليل الاسباب التي تدفع بالافراد الى الهجرة، وتقوم النظرية ببساطة على ان الناس تهاجر لان هناك عوامل طاردة لهم من موطنهم الاصلي، او ان هناك عوامل جاذبة لهم في المنطقة المضيفة.لهذا السبب اهتم هذا الب | The theory of attractions and expulsion are the most common theories in the analysis of the causes that drive individuals to immigration, the theory is simply that people migrate because there are factors expelling them from their place of origin, or there are factors attractive to them in the host region.For this reason interested in this research study this phenomenon aided statistical analysis (using multiple linear regression method), to determine the factors of attraction and expulsion and to identify the size of the migration of the population in the provinces of Iraq (Excluding the Kurdistan region), the currents and trends and any areas more attractive to residents, which is more parcels of the population, as well as knowledge of migrations and coming out of each of the five governorates century on the level of Iraq, according to the results of the general census of the population in 1997, And projections up to 2008, data and the results of the inventory and punctuation for the year 2009 and projections up to the year 2011, and the data that has been obtained from the concerned ministries official (Health, education, agriculture, electricity), study of the impact of health factors, And education, agriculture and services (electricity and water) on this migration.The researcher found that there are some factors have an impact in some provinces attractant as the number of schools in the province of Nineveh, unlike others with influence reverse as the number of faculty members in Basra province, and

تاثير الغام الحروب على الرقع النفطية باستخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية : دراسة حالة - محافظة البصرة == The War Mines Effectet In The Oil Spots By Using Geographic Information Systems /Wasit Governorate - Case Study

Author name: دعاء يوسف عبد الرحمن
Supervisor name: محمد جاسم محمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نتيجة للحروب التي مر بها العراق على حدوده الشرقية ,والقصف الذي تعرض له خلال حرب الخليج (1980 - 2003) اصبحت العديد من الاراضي تحتوي على الالغام والمخلفات الحربية ,مما ادى الى ظهور مشكلة عدم استثمار الرقع النفطية التي تقع تحت المساحات الملغومة ,حيث تم استعم | The wars rate that Iraq pass it at the eastern borders, And the bombing he faced during the gulf war (2003 - 1980 ) many areas became contain Mines and remnants of the war. Causing a problem of not investing the oil spot which fall under mined areas , Geographic information systems was used in spatial analysis of the mines problem in Basra through natural distribution standard.After identifying the areas of mines presence calculated the cost by the government due to the presence of mines and remnants of war inside the oil field ( Sindbad ) and the ninth spot which are located nearby the Iraqi - Iranian border the reason for planting of many minefields by the Iraqi government and the Iranian government was that the wars which took a place in this area , And the study showed that the presence of mines and remnants wars within the oil spots the government must have a financial obligations to clear these areas from mines and make it safe for the extraction of crude oil.Although the study showed that the geographical distribution pattern of mines at the study area ( Basra ) it is close to the pattern of massed because the gathering of dangerous areas at the middle of Basra due to the proliferation of remnants of wars as a result from the air and ground bombardment to vital facilities inside the governorate. From this above we conclude not to leave and neglect any oil spot containing mines and wars remnants and conducting surveys and removals for the purpose of clearing them from the wars remnants and make it safe for the purpose of investment to benefit from oil imports , especially that the world oil price will decline over time , And to provide full protection of oil fields and wells from terrorist and military operations In spite of they are frequently locked to sabotage as arson operations by ISIS

تشخيص وتقدير دالة الانحدار اللامعلمي للبيانات المزدوجة في حالة عدم تحقق بعض فرضياته == The Diagnosis And The Estimation of The Nonparametric Regression Function of The Panal Data In Case Some of Its Hypotheses Are Not Verified

Author name: دريد حسين بدر
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اكتسبت نماذج البيانات المزدوجة اهتماما بالغا وخاصة في الدراسات الاقتصادية والطبية والمالية لانها تاخذ في الاعتبار اثر التغير في الزمن وكذلك اثر التغير في المشاهدات المقطعية على حد سواء في بيانات عينة الدراسة، فضلا عن وصف البيانات من خلال تقدير الانموذج ا | Panel data models have gained a great importance especially in economic, medical, epidemic and financial studies. Because these models take into consideration the impact of the change in time, the impact of the change in sectional views alike inherent in data of a study sample, in addition to describing data through Estimation of the appropriate model. In this thesis, we address the use of method of nonparametric regression in diagnosing and Estimation a model of panel data , as there are specific assumptions related to vector of random errors are not verified. This is because we are going to talk about a nonparametric problem and existence of Heteroscedasiticity and Auto correlated errors which make the process of Estimation wrong, or sometimes not possible. A model has been diagnosed through disclosing all of the problem of Heteroscedasiticity through the use of test (1996) (Zheng) and the problem of Auto correlation by suing test (2013) (Su and Lu). It has been indicated through handling a Nonparametric Hausman Test that the final model adequate for research data is Nonparametric Panel Data Model with Random Effects. Thus, finding Nonparametric Estimator has been tackled through dealing with each problem individually alongside with addressing methods of choosing the smoothing Bandwidth of the model of Random Effects. In case of correlated errors for all techniques of Nonparametric Regression, there are methods to deal with this problem, however all of the said depends critically on addressing estimation methods reliant on finding the choice of an optimal smoothing Bandwidth using more accurate standard until the removal of error process to attain an edited smoothing Bandwidth , of any correlation, is achieved. Then, we could Estimation a model by using Estimation methods. In case of Heteroscedastisity, treatment could be achieved through determining weight by Kernel Estimator, then to be used for the exclusion of the effects of Heteroscedasticity in the study variables through using estimation methods and provision of proposals for classic Nonparametric methods. The formulation of simulated experiments of used models and verification of performance of traditional and proposed methods, for all sample sizes and three levels of standard deviation trough the use of (RAMSE) standard, have been carried out in this thesis. One of the most significant objectives of this study is the selection of the best Estimation method produced by simulation through applying it on a group of balanced Panel Data (longitudinal). This could be conducted through carrying out a practical application to state the effect of the role of gross domestic product on fixed market prices measured in a US Dollar (x) in the state budget measured in millions US Dollars (y) for the period (2003 - 2015). This could be approached through depending on genuine data related to general budget for the Arab States measured by millions US Dollars. The gross domestic product has been focused on since it is the most important economic variable that impacts the budget, as an explanatory variable according to the viewpoint of the competent people for the period (2003 - 2015). The main conclusion in the experimental side is a clear preference in absolute terms to the fortified proposal of Least Square Support Vector Machine for Regression by using an (MGCV) standard on other used Estimation methods. This is in case existence of Auto Correlation as well as provision of a verified proposal for Propose (LCNE), relying on a Span, a selection standard, on other used Estimation methods in case existence of Hetroscedasticity, of all sample sizes, all cases and three levels of three standard deviation. As to practical side, an appropriate model has been diagnosed. Also, compatibility of the best method has been proven in the experimental side alongside with practical one, and the most appropriate for a model by using (RAMSE) standard

حول تصاميم القطع المخططة

Author name: داليا هشام عبد الرحمن الشيخلي
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لا شك فيه ان للتجارب العاملية اهمية كبيرة في دراسة تاثيرات العوامل الرئيسية وتفاعلاتها، وتعد تجارب القطع الشريطية او المخططة Strip - plot Experiments او ما يسمى بتجارب القطاعات المنشقة split - Block Experiments احدى فروع او حالات التجارب العاملية حيث | There is no suspicion that the practical experiment have a great importance in studying the major factors and their activities ,and the Strip - Plot experiment or what it called Split - Block experiment considered as one of the practical experiments brunches where the steps are divided in the Analyzing Differentiation Diagram to three combinations , the first one is for the queues, the second one is for the colons, and the third one is for the experimental units which produced from crossing the queue with the colon with noticed that the horizontal and vertical strips should be in a vertical line with each other so there is no relation between their sizes. The levels of one factor normally distribute randomly over the strips of the queues and the levels of the other factor, and also randomly over the strips of the colons. By changing the randomization category (put the restrictions on the way of randomization) many kinds of designing the Strip - Plot appears. Hence, the aim of this research came to put the spot on these categories and put their mathematics sample, the statistical analyzing of each category, their usage’s, their characteristics, their features and their standard mistakes and to test the differences between the treatments average by using the method of Least Significant Differences. We cleared how to treat the problem of the one replication (because of loosing the mistakes) to test hypotheses by two methods. Finally we applying the kinds of the strip - plot designs practically standing on an experiment diagrams done in Abo Guraib Station yield that belong to Eebaa Center For Agricultural Researches. The program was written in ( Visual Basic ) language to make the statistic analysis for these experiments and applying practically the treatment of the repetition one.

استعمال اساليب السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بالتضخم الشهري في العراق للسنوات 2017 - 2021 == Using Time Series Models To Forecasting The Monthly Inflation In Iraq For (2017 - 2021)

Author name: خوله جعفر احمد
Supervisor name: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يشكل التضخم عائقا امام تنمية الدولة لما يقع عليه من اضرار اقتصادية واجتماعية لذا تحرص الدول على متابعة سلوكه احصائيا من اجل اخذ الحيطة والحذر والحيلولة دون ارتفاعه عن طريق اتخاذ القرارات السليمة ورسم السياسات الكفوءة.لذا يهدف البحث الى ايجاد افضل انموذ | Inflation forms an obstacle to the country's development because due to its influence on the economic and social damage, so the state is keen to follow up on its conduct statistically in order to take caution and prevent rising through sound decision - making and efficient fee policies.So research aims to forecast the inflation rates Through a series of inflation on the one hand and a series of indices on the other hand, for the period (Jan 2017 - Dec 2021) and reaching any strings best in the prediction by models (Box - Jenkins) and based on the indices data for the period (Jan 2009 - Dec 2015), through the modeling of the data in accordance with the methodology (Box - Jenkins) to build models starting from the diagnosis stage and the ending in the stage to predicting forecasting ,so several types of (ARIMA) models have been proposed, including choosing the most appropriate model specimen , according to the trade - off criteria (RMSE, MAPE , BIC, AIC, Schwarz, Hannan - Quinn), then used the possible greatest function in the estimation of the model specimen parameters, it has conducted tests (Ljung - Box, test my own confidence and Normal distribution of errors test) to determine the appropriateness of the model diagnosed, and then made a future forecasts according to the model, specimen It is better to get of the results based on the ready softwares (SPSS - 22) and the program (Gretl - 1.1) and the results that have been reached were, series of inflation rates stable in mean ,seires indices of consumer prices is'nt stable, where it has a general trend stabilized after taking the first difference and depending on the test (Augmented Dickey Fuller), and was reached that the best model for forecasting inflation of inflation series is a specimen ARIMA (0,0,2) (1,0,1)12 and using the indices series is a model ARIMA (0,1, 2) (1,0,0) 12 and if we make a comparison between the two models forecasting predictions concluded that the forecasting prediction by using a series of inflation gives better results than using the indices to predict a series where the average to smooth the predicted average inflation closer to the original series and therefore, the predictive values of rates inflation closer to the values of the original series viewing And that curve prediction of a series of inflation rates better than the curve predictions using the indces as he gave finer predictions and longer periods of time.

تقلبات سعر صرف الدينار العراقي للمدة من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005 والتنبؤ بسعره في المستقبل باستخدام سلاسل ماركوف == Fluctuating of The Iraqi Dinerexchange Rate Since 1996 Until Mid 2005 And Forecasting It In The Future By Using Markov Chains

Author name: خليل برهان الدين فرمان السعدي
Supervisor name: صباح منفي رضا الشمري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان هذا البحث هو دراسة احصائية اقتصادية في مجال سعرالصرف بدراسته من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005، ويتلخص بهذه العبارة (( الحاضر جني الماضي والمستقبل غرس الحاضر)) وهو محاولة متواضعة لبلورة هذا السعرفي اسلوب علمي احصائي، وكانت سلاسل ماركوف خير معبرعن ذلك | This research is considered as a first statistical and economic study in the field of Exchange rate during the period from 1996 till midd 2005. It could be summarized with this sentence (present is the fruit of the past and the future is the plantation of present). Markov chains was used as a scientific statistical method in forecasting process being one of the easiest models. When the data at present is represented in three conditions (i.e high, low, and stable) and between the past, present and future, it was possible to achieve the ideal method in the analysis by using Maximum Likelihood method and Ordinary Least Square method in estimating transitional probabilities matrix. The probability values have been put for all stages and for both methods in one table. The period was divided to three phases according to the political circumstances in Iraq in addition to general phase. The results of the matrices were clean and independent when multiplied by (n) times as shown in attached annexes and in stationary distribution vector, when the probability values were stable for the three cases in definite number and for each phase. The conclusions achieved in the third phase and the possible study to rise Iraqi Diner value to a certain level has been coincided. Finally , the study submitted some useful recommenda - tions.

مقارنة اساليب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير منحنى الانحدار اللامعلمي == A Comparison of Bayesian Approaches With Other Methods For Estimating Nonparametric Regression Curve

Author name: خلود يوسف خمو يوسف
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد شهدت طرائق الانحدار اللامعلمي اهتماما ملحوظا في السنوات الاخيرة كان السبب في ذلك هو ان التفكير المعلمي الصرف المستخدم في تقدير منحنى الانحدار لا يتوافق مع المرونة في تحليل البيانات.ومع التطور المنجز في اجهزة الحواسيب من الناحية المادية وكذلك انجاز | In recent years, too many considerations have been given for the Nonparametric Regression methods. This is for the reason that the concept of pure parametric; used for the estimation of Regression curve, does not cope well with the flexibility needed for data analysis.With the progress made in computer machines, in terms of economy and running performance, it has become possible to develop many of Nonparametric Regression methods theoretically. Though many of these are still under perfection, and facing a number of problems.Hence we see the importance of focusing on methods related to smoothing of Nonparametric Regression functions. This is for the purpose of producing the best methods convenient for various models. And for the Distribution Random error, in its two cases; Normal and Contaminated. Thus, the most important purpose of the research, is to find what the studies so far, have offered in the field of Nonparametric Regression. Also to find alternative or modified methods; which are reliable for the treatment of conditions of failure regarding the methods in use, as well as to alleviate the complexity of some methods, especially those related to Bayesian procedures.One of the most outstanding aims of the research focuses on the study of Nonparametric Regression using Bayesian variable selection. This suggests a modified technique to be reliable and of less complexity than the original one.Amongst the other research intentions, when data are contaminated with outliers, is to explore the Robust Nonparametric Regression, using Bayesian variable selection method. Also to suggest a modified Bayesian method; resistant to outliers, and of less complexity than before transformation. As well as offering suggested methods for Robust Nonparametric Regression. This is of the feature of having less sensitivity towards outliers and reliable in comparison to very few techniques supplied with robustness, as the Bayesian approach.A simulation model has been performed with different distributions, for the random error and for a number of models.To verify the performance of such methods, many criteria have been carried out.To satisfy the purpose of this research, the study has been divided into five chapters. Chapter I consists of an introduction, the problem under research, its importance and purposes. It also covers a literature survey. Chapter II covers methods for smoothing Nonparametric Regression. While chapter III is devoted for Nonparametric Regression and Robust Nonparametric Regression using Bayesian variable selection method. Also in this chapter are details of the suggested methods. Then chapter IV implements the experimental part of the study. Finally chapter V comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the research has recommended. As well as the future studies, which have been proposed regarding this research.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة المعولية للتوزيع الاسي الخليط مع تطبيق عملي == Comprastion Between Methots Estimator Reliability Function of Of A Mixture Exponential Distribution With A Practical Application

Author name: خضر نصيف جاسم البياتي
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاهتمام المتزايد في دراسة نماذج الفشل جاء نتيجة للدور الذي تضطلع به نظريه المعوليه ودالة الاخفاق بالتعامل مع الاعمار لدراسة ومعرفه سلوك اوقات الفشل في الزمن اللاحق, وتعتبر المعولية احد المقاييس للتعبيرعن اداء اي مفرد او نظام لفترة قادمة لذلك تعد المعو | Reliability theory and Hazard function have played a great role in the rapid interest in the study of failure models. These theories deal with the study of ages to investigate and study the behavior failure time at posterior time. Reliability theory is one of those standards that show the performances of any unite for an expected period of time. It is also considered an indicator for future planning.Accordingly, reliability theory is adopted to study and analyze behavior of failures and the factors behind such failures. To achieve this, the parameter estimators of failure models, with good prosperities and efficiency, are required to count the reliability estimation. Therefore, it is of keen significance to study the methods and techniques for getting the parameter estimators of failure including the parameter estimations of a mixture failure model. These estimations have a great role in reproducing complex cases of non - homogeneous populations. Like the importance of the normal distribution for biological studies, the exponential model is considered of a great significance for the study of failure models.The study aims to estimate the reliability function by employing various methods to estimate the model parameter exponential mixture. To achieve this objective, this study is divided into four chapters. Chapter I shows the introduction and the literature review. Chapter II defines some key concepts of the topic; it also presents the theoretical framework for the employed methods of estimation for a number of parameter estimator method’s complete sample of a mixture of two exponential distributions with different two parameter and percentage p. them of normal school such as Maximum likelihood method estimator and symbolizes her short (ML) and the method of moments and symbolized short (MO) and the least squares method and symbolizes her short(LS) and the least squares weighted and symbolized short (WL) and propose application Bayesian Method using (Lindley' s approximation) of this mixture distribution as not used in Iraq (by informed researcher) and study the behavior of a function failure rate for this distribution using expression w(t) which is also taught for the first time in Iraq, according to the informed researcher. Chapter III is divided into two sections. The first section includes the application of imitation style for generating data and performing a sample application based on the theoretical background. The second section reports about a field work on one of the public institutions for electrical industry. Chapter IV shows the results and conclusion of this study. It also suggests some recommendations for future research.

استخدام البرمجة الديناميكية لحل مشكلة جدولة انتاج متعدد لماكنة منفردة لكلفة خزين متغيرة == Using Dynamic Programming To Solve The Multi - Item Single Machine Scheduling Production Problem For Variable Inventory Cost

Author name: حيدر عدنان امير
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: الغرض من هذا البحث هو تطبيق اسلوب البرمجة الديناميكية Dynamic Programming لتخطيط الانتاج لمنتج واحد او اكثر بواسطة ماكنة واحدة ولعدة انواع من دوال الكلفة الخطية والمقعرة والمحدبة. سوف نهتم بتخطيط الانتاج لفترة زمنية مستقبلية تسمى ( فترة التخطيط ) Planning | The purpose from this research is to apply one of operations researches manners and its Dynamic Programming manner, to planning for one manufacturer or more and for many types from linear cost functions, convex and concave which are manufacture by lonely machine.We will pay attention in manufacturing planning for future chronological period named Planning Horizon for a machine is manufacturing many manufacturers with a machine changeover cost, where in this period the ordering average is change on the manufacturer, we’ll suppose too that the chronological space is divided to periods , the planning problem is happening by determining manufacturing average for every period in Planning Horizon , for knowing the ordering on every period is known but it’s not constant from each period to other which give it the Dynamic Form.In the research aim about how we planning for manufacturing period, so it will be study different models for cost function in one manufacturer case or more and apply an algorithm for each case and after that programming some of these algorithms to determining the best Planning Horizons where at them wholly cost function is might less.This subject consider as one of the important subjects in manufacturing operation fields, industrial operations, geometric operations and etc …For the important of leather industries, this subject apply on the factories of the Common Company of Leather Industries and that is happen by planning for outputting and stock to find less possible cost and the choice happen for four factories from the company and it’s : 1. Baghdad shoes factory ( Bata previously )2. kufa factory ( sporty shoes )3. Bags factory 4. Leather clothes factory And this by forming models to Dynamic Programming and it’s : 1. forward algorithm without disability 2. forward algorithm with disability 3. backward algorithm allow disabilityIt’s developing by the researcher to apply it in the multiple outputting and solve them and taking the results through a computer program written by the researcher for every model in Visual Basic Language.

استعمال بعض تصاميم التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة بالقياسات المكررة على مرض الثلاسيميا في محافظة واسط == Use Some Factorial Design of Experiments And Nested - Factorial By Repeated Measurements On Thalassemia In Wasit Governorate

Author name: حيدر رائد طالب
Supervisor name: قيـس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: انصب هدف الرسالة في امرين على درجة من الاهمية وهما اولا دراسة تحليلية لطبيعة التجارب بالقياسات المكررة لعدة تصاميم والتركيز على التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة وبناء النماذج الرياضية الخطية لهذه التجارب الذي يعتمد علية التحليل. لقد تم استعمال الط | Focused message in a two objective on the degree of importance and them first analytical Study to the nature of repeated measurements experiments for several designs and focus on the Nested - Factor Experiments and build linear mathematical models for these experiments upon which the analysis. It has been used several methods parametric to analysis these types of designs. which are difficult to analyze in sometimes because of the not provide conditions analysis of variance for repeated measurements experiments. The second objective of the message is application this kind of experience in the medical sector by studying a particular phenomenon characterized by a repeated measurements represented Thalassemia in Wasit province. Where he was studying three types of experiments the existence of a repeated measurements It is experiments with a one factor and have a repeated measurements on the same element, Factorial Experiment qxp repeated measurements on one factor, and Nested - Factorial experiment repeated measurements on one factor. As well as the use of methods of transfer to ranks (Rank Transformation) as one of the solutions that have made conditions analysis of variance to experiments measurements repeated of (distribution Normal random and independent for experimental error, homogeneity of variances, the lack of correlation between the averages and variances, spherical). Satisfactory because the transfer to ranks makes the data on the most homogeneous and normal, although we have identified a condition analysis of variance exclusively for the purpose of comparison by the value of the P - Value. The data can be described about Thalassemia in Wasit as follows : were assessed Standards quantities of iron (Fe) in the letter, groups this data classified into two groups, the first group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) and who have been subjected to the first chemotherapy (axja) by mouth for four treatment cycles (treatments) of each period lasts 30 days , and the second group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) who were exposed to second chemotherapy (Desferal) by injection into the skin or muscle of four treatment cycles (treatments), where each treatment cycle lasts 30 days. the most important conclusions that have been reached is that the Data Transformation by ranks led to the provision of analysis of variance conditions for experiments repeated measurements distribution the normal errors and homogeneity of variances and correlation between mean and variance, as well as a spherical condition. Through the four applications we believe that giving the first dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time and this type of treatment is used when high amounts of iron ratio. As well as when you give the second dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time, but at rates lower than the first treatment and this type of treatment is used when a weak proportion of iron in the blood of the patient.

مقارنة بين طرائق تقدير انحدار الحرف العامة في معالجة مشكلة التعدد الخطي شبه التام مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparisons Among The Generalized Ridge Regression Methods of Estimators Under Multicollinearity Problem With A Praxis

Author name: حنين مراد يوسف الصالحي
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يلقى موضوع خرق احد فروض الانحدار اهتماما واسعا وواضحا في معظم الدراسات لذلك تنبع اهمية هذا البحث من خلال الكشف عن احد هذه الفروض ومعالجتها والمتمثلة بـ وجود علاقة خطية بين اثنين او اكثر من المتغيرات التوضيحية والتي تدعى بمشكلة التعدد الخطي (Multicollinea | The violation of regression assumptions is one of the interesting topics in many fields. This thesis deals with multicollinearity problem by using some of generalized ridge regression methods (GRR, MJR, GJR, GL, AUGRR, and AUGL) as well as our proposed method (Almost unbiased Generalized Jackknife Ridge) (AUGJR). In addition, these methods are compared with parameter (k) in ridge and parameter (Liu D). These methods are evaluated based on the mean squared error (MSE) to obtain the best method of these methods with the suitable parameter.To evaluate these methods, we use simulation studies by using the R statistical program. Five variables are simulated with different sample sizes (n=15,20,60,300), different variances (0.16,0.13,0.18) and different correlation coefficients (r=0.16,0.13 and 0.18) with (s=10 and 2). The results show that AUGL, AUGJR and AUGRR are the best methods in terms of the MSE. The differences are very small among them. The methods are also evaluated based on real data example (Rail transport for the passengers and cargo), which is obtained from Iraqi Ministry of Planning.We first detected the problem of multicollinearity by using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Condition Index (CI). Then, we build a model of revenue for transportation after they have been estimating its features at the best methods.

افضل طرائق المعاينة في تقدير اعداد النخيل في محافظة البصرة == Optimum Sampling To Estimate Date Palm In Basrah Governorate

Author name: حنان سعيد مالك الراوي
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي | عدنان شهاب حمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان لكل اسلوب من اساليب المعاينة مزايا ومبررات في استخدامه، وغالبا ماترتبط عملية اختيار اسلوب المعاينة بجانبين اساسيين، اولهما معيار التجانس بين المفردات سواء على المستوى الكلي ام على مستوى اجزاء(او مجاميع) من المجتمع، وثانيهما الامكانات المتا | There is no doubt that each technique of sampling techniques has advantages and reason for using it, and mostly the correlation of choosing sampling technique with a essential two sides, first of them is the standard of homogenous between units as for all population, and the second one is the abilities that are available to fulfills survey. And in using Stratified Random Sampling Technique in evaluating the suitable population to apply an important role to get a high efficiency estimator to compare with other Sampling design. As the target of this searching is to get the best ways that increase the accurate estimation of the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate and in using different kind of sampling estimator, the comparison has been done between the mean variance of Simple Random Sampling and the mean variance of the Stratified Random Sampling, and it is clear in the comparative results hat using Stratified Random Sampling give the best estimation. The determination of strata boundaries (strata formation) have interested role in obtaining efficient estimators, several strategies of strata formation were constructed, it is proved that the approximated frequency strategy at ?= ½ is the most efficient, researchers discussed developing this strategy through using different values of (?), or different sample allocations. In this searching three approximately frequency had been applied , and to divide the population into strata and point out the optimum limit strata, and the sample allocation has been determined by using Neyman distribution. And it is clear in the result that using the approximated frequency is the nearest and efficient to estimate the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate, by counting the Stratification mean variance and the stratification mean for the three approximated frequency. And the reason to know wither the Stratified Random Sampling is efficient and better than the Simple Random Sampling in evaluating the Date Palms number the experiment of the hypothesis between two population has been used, the results of that experiment show the difference between the two means that lead to reject the Null hypothesis and to accept the Alternative hypothesis, according to this the search recommended to use the Stratified Random Sampling according to the new divided stratification by using frequency, taking into consideration using Neyman distribution o determine sample size and sample allocation

قياس الفقر متعدد الابعاد في العراق باستعمال مؤشرات اكسفورد OPHI == Measuring Multidimensional Poverty Using Oxford Indicators (OPHI)

Author name: حمدي محسن عليوي
Supervisor name: نبيلة عبد الهادي الشريف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الدراسات والبحوث التي تخص الفقر متعدد الابعاد لم تجد اهتماما الا في السنوات القليلة الماضية ولاسيما بعد ان اطلقت مبادرة اكسفورد التابعة لبرنامج الامم المتحده الانمائي تقرير التنمية البشرية لعام 2010، حينها اصبح الاتجاة بالتحول من نمط القياس الفردي الى | Studies and researches that concerned in multidimensional poverty did not find any attention, except for the last few years especially after the initiative of oxford - the report of human development of 2010, since then, the pattern changed from the single measurement to multi measurement, by describing poverty in many variables instead of one variable (income). According to the initiative of oxford - the report of human development, Multidimensional poverty on a national scale in Iraq contain five main dimensions dimension consists several indicators (education, basic services, level of living, feeding and health and employment), each dimension consists several indicators. This study came to measure multidimensional poverty and knowing the poor rate and the poverty severity, on a national scale in Iraq and its(18) governorates, and also on an Environmental Scale (rural, urban), and then using the analysis of multidimensional poverty (Principal component Method), to determine the variables causing in forming these elements which affect multidimensional poverty, on the other side, and the central statistical organization also can benefit from this study, because this method has been used in Iraq recently. The main conclusions of the research was that the multidimensional poverty has recorded differences in Poverty rates between the governorates, since that (Erbil) has recorded the lowest Poverty rate than other governorates, and when compared with (Wasit) which has recorded the highest Poverty rate, it will show that on each poor individual in (Erbil), on the other hand there is Five poor individuals in (Wasit), also the severity of poverty was high in all of the Governorates, even in governorates that has low poverty rates. On the Environmental scale (rural, urban), the multidimensional poverty in rural was four times bigger than urban. The results also shown that There are five main elements that affects multidimensional poverty on an Iraq scale, in another side, there were six elements effecting in (rural, urban) scale.

تقدير الدالة اللامعلمية للبيانات العنقودية == Nonparametric Regression Function Estimation of Clustered Data

Author name: حلا كاظم عبيد
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: البيانات العنقودية تظهر في الكثير من العلوم الاجتماعية والصحية والسلوكية. وتتميز هذا النوع من البيانات بوجود الارتباط بين مشاهداتها. وممكن التعبير عن العنقدة من حيث العلاقة بين القياسات على الوحدات ضمن نفس المجموعة فان النماذج الاحصائية تحتم على حساب الار | Cluster data appears in a lot of social, health and behavioral sciences. And featuring this type of data link between the presences of her observations. And possible expression of clustering in terms of the relationship between measurements on units within the same group, the statistical models makes it imperative for the link account at every level, because failure to do so leads to misleading results. Hence the importance inside the Observations link to the estimating of the function non parametric for cluster data where the use of parametric method for ICON is always desirable to estimate some functions Because of the shape of the data is unknown in advance the appropriate function or as a result of the existence of some obstacles so it is the use non parametric method to estimate (smoothing) Nonparametric function.. Research has shown developed in recent times on the use of non parametric regression when parametric the assumptions are unfulfilled. And non parametric regression allows greater flexibility of functions dependent variables resulting from the data. Previous research has touched on the case of cluster data estimating the ways non parametric and semi parametric methods and was adopted state of neglect of the link within the same cluster property data that distinguish cluster data is particularly. And local kernel estimator achieved more efficient negligently correlation within clusters (even if the correlation is in the interest the study). While some touched on the case taking correlation between Observations per cluster using the estimated equations. Others had created the kernel methods in the case of cluster data behave completely different from the behavior of the capabilities of the spline estimator as has achieved kernel methods results more efficient when the neglect of the link within the clusters, while spline methods results achieved less variance of smoothing fixed parameters at taking the link inside clusters into account in the estimation process.So in this thesis will be nonparametric function estimating for clustered data using the Seemingly Unrelated Kernel Estimators, and The Generalized Least Squares Smoothing Spline Estimators and propose Robust methods and comparison of the methods listed above to indicate the best estimate of the nonparametric function estimating for clustered data, taking into account the structure of the link within the clusters were cluster data, The adoption of cluster data, which has the same number of explanatory variables within each cluster. To achieve this, thesis was divided into five chapters, the first chapter included introduction and aim of the research and reference review, either Chapter II now include the theoretical side which discussed the methods used to calculate the non parametric function of cluster data in the presence of the link. While included Chapter III experimental side (simulation) and the application addressed method in the second chapter and the statement of the best way has less (MAE) or (MSE). and either the fourth chapter includes the applied side to the real data for the proportion of white blood cells and its impact on the proportion of blood per patient (cluster) and Chapter V which includes the most important conclusions and the recommendations.it is through simulation experiments have been finding the best way to estimate the non parametric function for cluster data and a way The robust Generalized Least Squares Smoothing Spline Estimators in the case of a correlation. It was the application of all methods of the practical side using real data about the proportion of white blood cells and their impact on the proportion of blood hemoglobin for patients with blood cancer (leukemia).

التحليل الاحصائي لتجارب القياسات المكررة للبيانات المصنفة == The Statistical Analysis For Experimental The Categorical Data of Repeated Measurement

Author name: حلا كاظم عبيد الصبيحاوي
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: حيث تم استعمال اختبار (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) على بيانات ذات معالجتين وكل معالجة بمستويين المتمثلة ببيانات مرض ضغط الدم ولدوائين وكل دواء بمستويين (ملائم وغير ملائم) ومن خلال الجانب التطبيقي تم الو | In this dissertation the study have concentrated on the use of repeated measurements tests of catcorigal data, where we used (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) tests on two treatments data, and every treatments with two levels which represent raised blood pressure data, and for two medications, each medication with two levels (appropriate and inappropriate), through the practical aspect, we concluded that the ratio of response for the two medication are the same. Also we used (Ireland & Ku & Kullback, Bhapkar, Stuart) tests on data with two treatments, each treatment has more than two levels that represent data of fifth grade (High school) for Arabic text book through years (2001 - 2004) in sumer high school, in which the first treatment represents the students grades in mid term exam, and the second treatment represented the student grades in final exam, through the practical aspect we gained an equivalent results in the previously mentioned methods (in which the students levels in mid term exam equivalent to that in final exam). We also used (Ireland & Kullback, Cochran) tests and weighted least squares (WLS) tests on three treatments data in which every treatment has two levels that represents data of student in the same grade, and in the same years for English text book in which the first treatment represents the first term average, and the second treatment represents the student's grade in mid year, and the third treatment represents the average of second term. And for two levels (Pass and failed), through the applicative of these test on these data we concluded that the level of any given student in first term is equal to the level in mid year and it's also equal to that in second term.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس باستخدام عينات مراقبة من النوع الثاني

Author name: حلا سلمان فرحان
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس اخذين بنظر الاعتبار وجود عينات مراقبة((Censored Data من النوع الثاني في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات بشكل دالة احتمالية اولية مشتركة لكل من معلمتي الشكل والقياس,حيث تم افتراضها حسب اسلوب الباحث(Jef | In this study have been estimated the survival function to Lomax distribution considering there was censored data (second Type) just in case if a primitive information were available about the indications as mutual primitive probability function for both : indications form & measure which assumed in order to method of the searcher (Jeffry) and also squared error loss function). So measured estimated pez S*(t) for survival function S (t) is the conditional expectation function S*(t) =E[S (t)/X].It has been used approximated methods to measure them because It is hard : to measure the complementary of numerator and denominator in a mathematics form by using Bayes method. One of these methods is the method of the searcher ( Lindley) while the other method was return to ( Tierrney and Kadon).In addition to methods formerly to estimate the survival function; the searcher has used the Shrinkage method. While she used the maximum likelihood method as a usual method for those which did not depend on the primitive information because the estimated thing had fixed quality.So, all this to make the comparison between these methods and the oldest one through simulation style by Mont - Carlo to get new estimation which carried the wanted qualities in the perfect estimated to get specific results : to choose the suitable estimation method.The searcher hade made the bayes (lomax distribution survival function) as the lindley manner was the best among the other manners to estimate lomax distribution survival function ,on general ;while the manner of the maximum likelihood method was the best manner among to other estimated manners for tiny simple size on private.

مقارنة احصائية للحالة الصحية لاطفال المحافظات الجنوبية دون الخمس سنوات بين عام 2006 و2011 == Statistical Comparison of The Health Status of Children Under Five Southern Provinces Between The Years 2006 And 2011

Author name: حسين عيسى مسلم القريشي
Supervisor name: اسماء نجم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: العراق هو احد الدول التي عانى اطفاله من ظروف صعبة جدا , فواقع العراق السياسي جعل اجيال عدة تعيش في ظروف انسانية غير طبيعية لعقود من الزمن ان هذا البحث يهدف الى اجراء مقارنة للحالة الصحية للاطفال دون سن الخمس سنوات في المحافظات الجنوبية بين2006 و2011 اعتم | Iraq is one of the states that children suffering from very difficult circumstances, the reality of Iraq's political make several generations living in abnormal humane conditions for decades that this research is aimed at a comparison of the health status of children under five years of age in the southern provinces between 2006 and 2011, a researcher in the study approved the cluster survey data multi - third variables in the 2006 survey cluster multi - fourth variables in 2011, which Ajerthm the Ministry of planning / Central Bureau of Statistics, was taking the most important influences on children's health, including malnutrition, disease, diarrhea, respiratory infections, vaccines, drinking water, sanitation health, quality of feeding, social, educational and axis through the use of style analysis world by using Principal Component analysis to derive the most explanation of the health status of the children of Iraq in two years, factors and through the use of some software statistical shelf SPSS to show results concluded the researcher as shown by the results of the analysis the World in 2006 for the provinces as a whole that there are five significant factors that control the thirteen variables involved in the search on the southern provincial level either in the year 2011 for the provinces, the results showed the presence of four significant factors that control the three variables ten We note that the number of factors decrease between two and it conclude that health status in advance, either for the environment. in the year 2006 showed the results of factor analysis of the present, there were five significant factors that control the variables as a whole Lama in 2011 Veugd also five influential moral factors in health status and conclude that there is no difference in health status between the two for the present, As for the countryside were the results of the analysis the global him that he showed in 2006, there are five significant factors that control the thirteen variables involved in the search and in the year 2011, the results showed the presence of five moral factors controlling the variables and here we conclude that the lack of difference in the number of factors for the countryside between the two but there is an increase in the strong variables within the factors in the year 2006, which infer the existence of a very simple interest in rural health. the results also showed that the strongest variables influence the health aspect which vaccines variables making it one of the most important variables for the years 2006 and 2011 and we can call this component component health and that the strongest variables and rank second is the second component as included variables (diarrhea, coughing disease, the quality of the land housing, child's height, weight of the child, breastfeeding, the child's age, number of children under five years in the family) and we can call this vehicle as the (environment Child). It is the most important recommendations were are 1 - Give the subject of child health under five years of great interest by the state and the provision of supplies for all of it 2 - the need for attention and attendance routine vaccines to take the vaccines in a timely manner with the need to keep Bacart vaccines to know when the vaccine 3 - Increase health campaigns carried out by the Ministry of Health and for more than a vaccine as well as increased dropouts campaigns for all routine vaccines

بناء نموذج صفوف الانتظار باستخدام المقدرات الحصينة لقسم الباطنية / مستشفى بغداد التعليمي == Building Queuing Models Using Robust Estimators For The Department of Internal / Baghdad Teaching Hospital

Author name: حسنين حامد احمد الطائي
Supervisor name: مروان عبد الحميد عاشور
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان للشواذ الاثر الاكبر في عملية تقدير معلمات توزيعي الوصول والخدمة لنماذج صفوف الانتظار، عليه كان لابد من استعمال طريقة لاختبار هل ان هذه البيانات تحتوي على قيم شاذة ام لا، فجرى استعمال طريقة ( Tukey ) لهذا الغرض، وقد تبين ان هناك مشاهدات شاذة في مقدرات | As the Outliers greatest impact in the process of estimating the distribution of arrival and service parameters, it was necessary to use the method to test Are these data contain abnormal values or not, ran the use method ( Tukey ) for this purpose and is of the most popular ways to discover the outliers, and have found that there are views abnormal ( outliers ) in the estimators of a distributed both arrival and service, which have a significant impact on the calculation of these estimators have been addressed through the use of robust estimation methods ( Robust estimation methods ) be of the effectiveness and feasibility of giving robust estimator better than the estimated normal extracted function in a manner as possible the greatest normal ( Ordinary Maximum Likelihood estimation ) ( MLE ) , as was the use of the estimators of the greatest possible function weighted ( weighted Maximum Likelihood estimation ) ( WMLE ) in the estimation process, was the best estimate is the estimated robust existence of outliers that have had the greatest impact on the process of improving the efficiency of the performance of a queueing theory, which led to relieve pressure on the service system, which in turn reduces delays for patients.Robust queues models applied and their role in improving the performance of the Department of Health in Baghdad / city of Medicine / Baghdad Teaching Hospital / Advisory clinic esoteric. It was found that the views of extremist dramatically affect the outcome queue estimates of the distributional arrival and service which will reflect negatively on the measurements of the efficiency of performance indicators queuing system and therefore it leads to non - solid results because that way possible ( Robust Maximum Likelihood Estimation ) ( RMLE ) used in the process of estimating the parameters were the best way possible regular ( MLE ) , as the method used was able to find robust estimator good efficient and of great effectiveness and that processed data containing outliers in the sample.Through Applied study of data researcher found that the queue model was (M / M / C) : ( GD / ? / ?) at a rate of three doctors who represent a number of service channels and the size of the community, as well as the size of both unlimited system.The key findings of the research is to adopt robust estimators for distributional arrival and service models queues in general because they are working to address the impact of outliers winning in the data.

استعمال خوارزمية البحث المتناغم المركبة لحل مسالة التخصيص التربيعية مع تطبيق عملي == Using Combinatorial Harmony Search Algorithm For Solving Quadratic Assignment Problems With Practical Application

Author name: حسن عبد الستار ابراهيم
Supervisor name: عبد المنعم كاظم حمادي الشكري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتضمن هذا البحث ثلاث مراحل اساسية المرحلة الاولى تضمنت دراسة موسعة لمسالة التخصيص التربيعية (Quadratic Assignment Problem) من حيث الصيغ وطرق الحل والحدود الدنيا لدالة الهدف وبعض التطبيقات المهمة للمسالة والمرحلة الثانية تتضمن بناء خوارزمية لحل المسالة , ا | This research includes three Basic phases the first phase included an extensive study of the Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) in the formulas and methods of solution and Lower Bound of objective function and some important applications of the Problem and the second phase includes construction of algorithm for solving the Problem, used Harmony Search algorithm in this research but added the improvement Procedures to increase the Performance of algorithm and speed up access to the optimal solution of the problem, The algorithm consists of two phases, the first phase will improve all the existing solutions in the Harmony Memory use some improvement measures is the property of Crossover used in genetic algorithm and also guided search to reduce the objective function, the second phase will depend on the Procedures of the Harmony search algorithm (HS) but using a new Improvise, The algorithm has proven its efficiency in solving the problem is resolved (15) standard problem from the special library of Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAPLIB), and compare the results with the local search algorithm (LS), Tabu search (TS), Simulated annealing (SA) after solving each problem (25) times and record the results of the algorithm shown open her with total access to the optimal solution (282) of the total (375) repetition of the test as the total reached the local search algorithm (2) Simulated annealing algorithm (117) and Tabu search algorithm is (174). The third phase of the research included the use of the (QAP) in the process of designing websites towers networks of the Ministry of Oil to connect the gas stations in Baghdad province to determine the main towers of the project where the use of the Combinational Harmony search algorithm in resolving the Problem after resolving the problem was determine the location of towers , sites first tower area (Yarmouk) as the second tower (Sadr City) and the third tower in the area (Karada) and fourth in the Tower (Adhamiya) and then use the Generalized Assignment model in distribution subsidiary turrets to The main tower and the new design of the towers the effectiveness of Quadratic Assignment problem in organizing sites.

مقارنة فترة الثقة مع الفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل مع تـطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Confidence Interval With Bayesian Interval For The Linear Compination of Nest Factor Means (With Application)

Author name: حسام موفق صبري الدليمي
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد دراسات المقارنة بين طرق تقدير المعلمات من الدراسات المهمة التي تاخذ حيزا واسعا في البحوث الاحصائية، لذلك تهدف هذه الدراسة الى اجراء مقارنة من خلال الفترات بين فترة الثقة والفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل في تصميم متداخل متزن لمرح | A Comparison studies among parameters estimation approaches are important studies that take a large space in statistical searches. So that the purpose of this study is to make a comparison through the intervals between the confidence interval and the Bayesian interval for linear combination of nest factor means in a two stage balanced nested design.The confidence interval was found by using an advance approach in inference called (Mixed Inference), and the Bayesian interval was found by using another approach in inference called (Bayesian Inference), then a comparison was happened between the two intervals (obviously the two kinds of inference).We apply this comparison on a real data experiment represent weights of vetch planet in (1998), and by using simulation. The results of the real data experiment and simulation shows an important conclusion which said that the confidence interval for linear combination of nest factor means is better than the Bayesian interval of the same linear combination for any suggestion confidence coefficient.Finally, An assumption study established to know the causes that leads to that important conclusion

تحليل التباين متعدد المتغيرات لتصميم القطع المنشقة - المنشقة == Multivariate Analysis of Varaince For Split - Split Plot Design

Author name: حسام عبد الرزاق رشيد البكري
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: This research work is a study of multivariate analysis of variance model (MANOVA) for the design of split - split plot to a complete randomized block. As it is an important method for determining whether the response variables are influenced with each other or in other words whether the correlation between the variables of a force such that it influence the decision taken concerning the applied hypothesis. When we don’t ignore the relationships which are created between the responses variables lead us to generalize the tests in the univariate analyses about the means of normal population to be changed to tests involving mean vectors responses taken from multivariate normal population. Ignoring the existing relationships between variables lead us to untrue conclusions, so in doing the (MANOVA) gives us a full picture of the experimental factors and their interaction in the experiment as a whole. The concentration on doing the (MANOVA) should not be at the expense of the study of the univariate analysis. So the research work involves the problem of heterogeneous in sub - sub plot variances, which is considered one of the important problems put forward by other researchers which may limit his work in special procedure. We are interested in solving this problem by using a univariate analysis procedure after splitting the error of sub - sub plot and then finding the standard deviation used in comparison testing between about the third factor (c). Then comparing them with the standard deviation used, if we assume the existence of homogeneity in variances of sub - sub plot.
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