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اثر سعر الصرف الاجنبي على النمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (1990ـ2015) == The Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate On Economic Growth In Iraq (1990 - 2015)

Author name: حوراء عبد الزهرة جواد السلطاني
Supervisor name: احمد خليل الحسيني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Babylon - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Financial And Banking Sciences
Language: Arabic
University location: Babylon
First pages:
Abstract: هدف البحث الى ايضاح الاثار الاقتصادية لتقلبات سعر الصرف الاجنبي امام الدينار العراقي في معدلات النمو الاقتصادي خلال المدة (1990 - 2015)، وتحديد اتجاه تلك الاثار وطبيعة تاثيرها على الاقتصاد العراقي، كما ان الاقتصاد العراقي شانه شان جميع البلدان النامية تع | The study aimed to clarify the economic effects of the Iraqi dinar exchange fluctuations in economic growth rates during the period price (1990 - 2015), and to determine the direction of these effects and the nature of their impact on the Iraqi economy. The Iraqi economy, like all developing countries exposed to many of the economic imbalances and even more sharply since the early nineties and until now, which led to the loss of the factors of economic stability, and then the absence of an enabling environment for economic growth, due to wars and blockades Iraq experieuced, the weakness of domestic resource mobilization, and the increased reliance on external financing, in addition to the external debt problem. However these are the wrong economic decisions which had an influential role in most of the distortions and crises the Iraqi economy suffers from. Thus the importance of the study lies in the role that could be played by the exchange rate in effect on economic growth rates in Iraq and the advancement to overcome the problems. The study starts from the premise that " The fluctuations of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate has a negative impact on economic growth variables and their impact more pronounced as compared to the stability of the exchange rate; a neutral effect". To achieve the objectives of the study, there are three chapters, the introduction and conclusion.Chapter One : the theoretical and conceptual framework of the exchange rate and economic growth.Chapter TWO : The indices measure the exchange rate trends and economic growth in Iraq.Chapter Three : Measuring the impact of exchange rate in the economic growth of the Iraqi economy. The current study used a form of analysis record (VAR) and through a standard program (E - views), that depending on the stability of the time series as preprocessing results indicate. all model variables as stable at the level of the moral level of 1% and the level of significance of 5%, and then tested joint integration, that proved the existence of a long - term equilibrium relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable, then the estimate vector autoregressive (VAR) to the variables of the study.

قياس وتحليل محددات الطاقة الضريبية في العراق للمدة (1990 - 2015) == Measure and analyze the determinants of Taxable Capacity in Iraq for the period (1990 - 2015

Author name: جنان جاسم عباس الجبوري
Supervisor name: عياد محمد علي باش
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Babylon - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Babylon
First pages:
Abstract: تعد الضرائب احدى ادوات السياسة المالية المهمة التي تستخدمها السياسة الاقتصادية الكلية لاحداث التغيرات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية المنشودة ، ومن هذا المنطلق لابد لنا من التعرف على العوامل التي تؤثر في الطاقة الضريبية في العراق للمدة من (1990 - 2015) ، اذ تتجلى اهمية البحث بضرورة تنويع مصادر الدخل القومي في الاقتصاد العراقي ذو الطبيعة الريعية بوساطة تفعيل الدور التمويلي للضرائب من خلال العمل على رفع الطاقة الضريبية الى حدها الاقصى ، حيث تكمن مشكلة البحث في محدودية دور الضرائب في تمويل الانفاق العام والعمل على تفعيل هذا الدور. واما هدف البحث فهو التعرف على اهم العوامل المؤثرة في الطاقة الضريبة في العراق خلال الفترة المذكورة ، وعليه استخدمت الباحثة البرامج الاحصائية الجاهزة (E views 7,Spss ) لغرض تقدير الانموذج القياسي . فكانت اهم الاستنتاجات التي تم التوصل اليها ان اكثر العوامل تاثير في الطاقة الضريبية هي( نسبة مساهمة قطاع التعدين في GDP، معدل النمو الاقتصادي، نسبة التجارة الخارجية فيGDP، ودرجة المركزية في الادارة الحكومية). | The taxes considered one of the important tools of the financial policy and the macroeconomic policy use it to make the changes in economic and social objectives and, from this perspective we must to identify the factors affecting the tax energy in Iraq for the duration from (1990 - - 2015 ), and the Manifested of the research importance is how to diversify sources of national income in the Iraqi economy which has the rentier natural resources Through activating the funding role of taxes . by raising the tax energy to maximum,the research problem being in The limited role of taxes to finance public expendiures. And the work to activate this role, The objective of this research is to identify the most important factors affecting the tax energy in Iraq for the period mentioned. The researcher used the available statistical software to estimate the standard model. The most important conclusions reached is the moral(motivation) and the more effective factors in the tax energy are ( The proportion contribution of the mining sector in GDP, and Economic growth rate， Foreign trade ratio in GDP, and Central's degree in the government administration).

العلاقة بين عرض النقد والتضخم في الاقتصاد العراقي : دراسة قياسية للمدة 1990 - 2014 == The relationship between Money Supply and Inflation in the Iraqi Economy Econometric Study During 1990 - 2014

Author name: بشار سعدي عبد اسود
Supervisor name: جواد كاظم البكري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Babylon - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Babylon
First pages:
Abstract: كان اتجاه البحث نحو استيعاب اغلب المتغيرات التي تحيط بالعلاقة ما بين متغير عرض النقد وظاهرة التضخم، الى جانب معرفة الحركات التبادلية بين طرفي البحث(عرض النقد, التضخم), ومعرفة من من هذين المتغيرين يؤثر في الاخر ومدى قوة هذا التاثير وطبيعته. اضافة الى اكتشاف الاتجاه الداخلي في التضخم الذي يرفع الاسعار بشكل مستمر من خلال التعرف على الراجع او التغذية العكسية(Feedback) من التضخم الى عرض النقد.كما وتعد ظاهرة التضخم احدى اقدم المشاكل الاقتصادية التي واجهت البشرية على مدى العصور, ولهذه الظاهرة اثارها السلبية على مختلف جوانب الحياة السياسية والاقتصادية والاجتماعية اذا كانت بمستويات عالية وشديدة، لذلك فقد كانت دائما محور الاهتمام والدراسة من قبل علماء الاقتصاد، مما ادى الى ظهور نظريات وافكار واراء مختلفة عن اسباب حدوثها وسبل معالجتها اذ تباينت المدارس الاقتصادية في افكارها وتوجهاتها للسيطرة على التضخم.الى جانب يعد الاقتصاد العراقي اقتصاد ريعي احادي الجانب يعتمد على تصديره للنفط كذلك مر العراق بحروب مدمرة كانت لها نتائج كارثية خلال فترة البحث(1990 - 2014) بدئا من حرب الكويت سنة(1990) ومن ثم العقوبات الدولية التي منعته من تصدير نفطة الذي يعتمد عليه في تمويل الانفاق العام واستيراد ابسط مقومات الحياة مما لجا العراق الى سياسة التمويل بالعجز وبعدها الحرب الامريكية علية سنة(2003) فتدمير البنية التحتية بشكل شبة كامل وصولا الى عدم اقرار الموازنة الاتحادية واجتياح المنظمة الارهابية المسمات بـ(بداعش) ارض الوطن سنة(2014) الى جانب حالة العوق الهيكلي التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد العراقي. وقد توصل البحث الى نتائج اهمها عدم وجود تاثير متبادل بين عرض النقد(M1) والرقم القياسي العام لاسعار المستهلك(CPI) الذي يمثل التضخم في العراق للفترة(1990 - 2014) وقد يرجع التضخم الى التشوهات الهيكلية التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد وكذلك لارتباط(M1) بالانفاق الحكومي, وايضا توصل البحث الى وجود تاثير متبادل وعلاقة لولبية دائرية وتغذية عكسية بين عرض لنقد(M1) والطلب على النقود(MD) مما يدفع كلاهما الاخر نحو الارتفاع.اضافة ان الزيادات الحاصة عرض النقد ان دلت على شيء فهيه تدل على عدم قدرة البنك المركزي على السيطرة على عرض النقد وذلك لارتباطه بمسارات الانفاق العام التي تحدده الحكومة المركزية, مما ذهب البنك المركزي الى استهداف التضخم بوساطة سعر الصرف بعد عام 2003 مما ادى الى الاضرار في القدرة التنافسية الدولية للعراق. | The search trend towards included most of the variables that surround the relationship between money supply and the phenomenon of inflation, along with discover the mutual movements between two parties of research (money supply, inflation), and find out what variable affects the other and how powerful this effect and nature. In addition to the discovery of internal trend in inflation, which raises prices on an ongoing basis through the identification of recurrent or (Feedback) from inflation to the money supply. Inflation phenomenon also is one of the oldest economic problems faced by mankind throughout the ages, but this phenomenon is negative on the various aspects of political, economic and social life of their effects if the high and severe levels, so it has always been the focus of attention and study by economists, leading to the emergence of theories and ideas and different views about the causes of occurrence and ways to address them as economic schools in its ideas and beliefs varied to control inflation. As well as the Iraqi economy is a one - sided prosaic economy depends on the export of oil as well as over the Iraq devastating wars have had disastrous results during the research period (1990 - 2014) starting from Kuwait War (1990) and then international sanctions that prevented it from exporting oil, which depends on it to finance public spending and import the most basic necessities of life which Iraq resorted to the financing policy of helplessness and after the US - led war in (2003), the destruction of infrastructure is almost entirely down to the lack of adoption of the federal budget and the invasion of the terrorist organization (ISIS) homeland in (2014) besides the case of structural handicap suffered by the Iraqi economy. The hypothesis of search is, that in spite of a major expansion of the money supply by inject the local currency in the Iraqi market after (2003) as increased budgets dramatically, increased government spending and increased salaries and wages, the inflation rate began to decline significantly since ( 2003) and to the present time. The research has come to the results such as lack of mutual effect between the money supply (M1) and general index of consumer prices (CPI), which represents inflation in Iraq for the period (1990 - 2014) the inflation Perhaps due to structural distortions that Iraq economy suffered by the economy as well as to link (M1) with government spending, as well as research found that there are reciprocal effect relationship spiral and circular feed counterproductive between the (M1) and demand for money (MD), forcing both of them upward. Adding that alopecia increases the money supply that has shown nothing Vhia demonstrates the lack of the central bank's ability to control money supply and it is linked to tracks public spending that determined by the central government, which the central bank went to the inflation targeting mediated by the exchange rate after 2003, resulting in damage to the international competitive ability of Iraq

قياس اثر صدمة الايرادات النفطية في متغيرات السياسة النقدية في العراق للمدة 1999 - 2015 == The Measurement of The Impact Of The Shock Of Oil Revenues In The Variables Of Monetary Policy In Iraq For The Period (1999 - 2015)

Author name: سيف علي عبد الرزاق شريف الخفاجي
Supervisor name: حسين ديكان درويش الدليمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Babylon - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Babylon
First pages:
Abstract: e advantage of the Iraqi economy it's parish because it's dependence on the oil sector which is the main source of financing of the revenue side of the state budget by more than (82%) and constitutes more than (56%) of GDP in light of the decline in other economic sector's, and this dependency has imposed on the economy a feature of instability and volatility towards the crises in oil revenues associated directly oil prices which created a permanent deficit in the state budget and trade balance due to dependence on imports to cover domestic demand for goods and services, and this dependency has made the monetary power (Central Bank of Iraq), face difficulties in controlling monetary policy variables in a manner that ensures the achievement of it's final objectives of which the most important is economic stability and the preservation of the foreign exchange rate and reduce inflation rate due to the directly relationship between oil revenues and money supply through public expenditure which is increasing by increas oil revenues and this expenditure increase the growth rate of money supply more than the GDP growth rate thus raising the general price level(Raising inflation rates) especially in the context of a budget to cover current expenditure (consumption)on the base of reducing investment expenditures .Therefore, this study attached to impact measuring the effw of oscillations in the oil revenues on monetary policy variables . For the duration(1999 - 2015), Due to dependency on the hypothesis that oscillations (Shocks)The oil revenues in both (The positive and negative) contribute to monitoring the course and movement of macro - economic variables in Iraq between the state of stability and economic cycles .And to achieve this hypothesis the structure of the study was divided into three chapters the first one dealt with the theoretical framework of the oil economy and monetary economy and identify the mechanism of measuring Shock.The second dealt with the analysis of economic variables of the Iraqi economy .and the third dealt with economic measurement to the impact of the shock of oil revenues in the variables of monetary policy .The research results reflected the big role which exercised by oil revenue shocks in the Iraqi macroeconomy to the short run and long run .The study recommends the central Bank Iraq must use the monetary policy tools to adjust the growth rates of money supply compatible with GDP growth rates at the lowest cost to sustain the foreign currency reserves .