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قياس اثر صدمة الايرادات النفطية في متغيرات السياسة النقدية في العراق للمدة 1999 - 2015 == The Measurement of The Impact Of The Shock Of Oil Revenues In The Variables Of Monetary Policy In Iraq For The Period (1999 - 2015)
Author name:
سيف علي عبد الرزاق شريف الخفاجي
Supervisor name:
حسين ديكان درويش الدليمي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Babylon - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Babylon
First pages:
07T4588 - p.pdf
Abstract:
e advantage of the Iraqi economy it's parish because it's dependence on the oil sector which is the main source of financing of the revenue side of the state budget by more than (82%) and constitutes more than (56%) of GDP in light of the decline in other economic sector's, and this dependency has imposed on the economy a feature of instability and volatility towards the crises in oil revenues associated directly oil prices which created a permanent deficit in the state budget and trade balance due to dependence on imports to cover domestic demand for goods and services, and this dependency has made the monetary power (Central Bank of Iraq), face difficulties in controlling monetary policy variables in a manner that ensures the achievement of it's final objectives of which the most important is economic stability and the preservation of the foreign exchange rate and reduce inflation rate due to the directly relationship between oil revenues and money supply through public expenditure which is increasing by increas oil revenues and this expenditure increase the growth rate of money supply more than the GDP growth rate thus raising the general price level(Raising inflation rates) especially in the context of a budget to cover current expenditure (consumption)on the base of reducing investment expenditures .Therefore, this study attached to impact measuring the effw of oscillations in the oil revenues on monetary policy variables . For the duration(1999 - 2015), Due to dependency on the hypothesis that oscillations (Shocks)The oil revenues in both (The positive and negative) contribute to monitoring the course and movement of macro - economic variables in Iraq between the state of stability and economic cycles .And to achieve this hypothesis the structure of the study was divided into three chapters the first one dealt with the theoretical framework of the oil economy and monetary economy and identify the mechanism of measuring Shock.The second dealt with the analysis of economic variables of the Iraqi economy .and the third dealt with economic measurement to the impact of the shock of oil revenues in the variables of monetary policy .The research results reflected the big role which exercised by oil revenue shocks in the Iraqi macroeconomy to the short run and long run .The study recommends the central Bank Iraq must use the monetary policy tools to adjust the growth rates of money supply compatible with GDP growth rates at the lowest cost to sustain the foreign currency reserves .
