اثر سعر الصرف الاجنبي على النمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة (1990ـ2015) == The Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate On Economic Growth In Iraq (1990 - 2015)
Author name:
حوراء عبد الزهرة جواد السلطاني
Supervisor name:
احمد خليل الحسيني
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
University of Babylon - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Financial And Banking Sciences
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Babylon
First pages:
07T3585 - p.pdf
Abstract:
هدف البحث الى ايضاح الاثار الاقتصادية لتقلبات سعر الصرف الاجنبي امام الدينار العراقي في معدلات النمو الاقتصادي خلال المدة (1990 - 2015)، وتحديد اتجاه تلك الاثار وطبيعة تاثيرها على الاقتصاد العراقي، كما ان الاقتصاد العراقي شانه شان جميع البلدان النامية تع | The study aimed to clarify the economic effects of the Iraqi dinar exchange fluctuations in economic growth rates during the period price (1990 - 2015), and to determine the direction of these effects and the nature of their impact on the Iraqi economy. The Iraqi economy, like all developing countries exposed to many of the economic imbalances and even more sharply since the early nineties and until now, which led to the loss of the factors of economic stability, and then the absence of an enabling environment for economic growth, due to wars and blockades Iraq experieuced, the weakness of domestic resource mobilization, and the increased reliance on external financing, in addition to the external debt problem. However these are the wrong economic decisions which had an influential role in most of the distortions and crises the Iraqi economy suffers from. Thus the importance of the study lies in the role that could be played by the exchange rate in effect on economic growth rates in Iraq and the advancement to overcome the problems. The study starts from the premise that " The fluctuations of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate has a negative impact on economic growth variables and their impact more pronounced as compared to the stability of the exchange rate; a neutral effect". To achieve the objectives of the study, there are three chapters, the introduction and conclusion.Chapter One : the theoretical and conceptual framework of the exchange rate and economic growth.Chapter TWO : The indices measure the exchange rate trends and economic growth in Iraq.Chapter Three : Measuring the impact of exchange rate in the economic growth of the Iraqi economy. The current study used a form of analysis record (VAR) and through a standard program (E - views), that depending on the stability of the time series as preprocessing results indicate. all model variables as stable at the level of the moral level of 1% and the level of significance of 5%, and then tested joint integration, that proved the existence of a long - term equilibrium relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable, then the estimate vector autoregressive (VAR) to the variables of the study.
