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مقارنة فترة الثقة مع الفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل مع تـطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Confidence Interval With Bayesian Interval For The Linear Compination of Nest Factor Means (With Application)

Author name: حسام موفق صبري الدليمي
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد دراسات المقارنة بين طرق تقدير المعلمات من الدراسات المهمة التي تاخذ حيزا واسعا في البحوث الاحصائية، لذلك تهدف هذه الدراسة الى اجراء مقارنة من خلال الفترات بين فترة الثقة والفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل في تصميم متداخل متزن لمرح | A Comparison studies among parameters estimation approaches are important studies that take a large space in statistical searches. So that the purpose of this study is to make a comparison through the intervals between the confidence interval and the Bayesian interval for linear combination of nest factor means in a two stage balanced nested design.The confidence interval was found by using an advance approach in inference called (Mixed Inference), and the Bayesian interval was found by using another approach in inference called (Bayesian Inference), then a comparison was happened between the two intervals (obviously the two kinds of inference).We apply this comparison on a real data experiment represent weights of vetch planet in (1998), and by using simulation. The results of the real data experiment and simulation shows an important conclusion which said that the confidence interval for linear combination of nest factor means is better than the Bayesian interval of the same linear combination for any suggestion confidence coefficient.Finally, An assumption study established to know the causes that leads to that important conclusion

تحليل التباين متعدد المتغيرات لتصميم القطع المنشقة - المنشقة == Multivariate Analysis of Varaince For Split - Split Plot Design

Author name: حسام عبد الرزاق رشيد البكري
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: This research work is a study of multivariate analysis of variance model (MANOVA) for the design of split - split plot to a complete randomized block. As it is an important method for determining whether the response variables are influenced with each other or in other words whether the correlation between the variables of a force such that it influence the decision taken concerning the applied hypothesis. When we don’t ignore the relationships which are created between the responses variables lead us to generalize the tests in the univariate analyses about the means of normal population to be changed to tests involving mean vectors responses taken from multivariate normal population. Ignoring the existing relationships between variables lead us to untrue conclusions, so in doing the (MANOVA) gives us a full picture of the experimental factors and their interaction in the experiment as a whole. The concentration on doing the (MANOVA) should not be at the expense of the study of the univariate analysis. So the research work involves the problem of heterogeneous in sub - sub plot variances, which is considered one of the important problems put forward by other researchers which may limit his work in special procedure. We are interested in solving this problem by using a univariate analysis procedure after splitting the error of sub - sub plot and then finding the standard deviation used in comparison testing between about the third factor (c). Then comparing them with the standard deviation used, if we assume the existence of homogeneity in variances of sub - sub plot.

تاثيــر التوجـــه الاســــتراتيجي فــي اداء المصارف العراقية الخاصة : بحث مقارن == The Impact of Strategic Orientation On The Performance of Iraqi Private Banks / Acomparative Research

Author name: حسام حمدان شونة
Supervisor name: علي موات الصيهود السوداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
Key words:
  • التوجه الريادي
  • التوجه نحو السوق
  • التوجه التفاعلي
  • بطاقة الاداء المتوازن
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف الباحث من خلال هذا البحث الى وضع جانب نظري للتوجه الاستراتيجي المركز على السوق في منظمات الاعمال من اجل تحسين ادائها الحالي والاداء المستقبلي من خلال استخدام التوجه الاستراتيجي بابعاده المتمثلة (التوجه الريادي،التوجه نحو السوق،التوجه التفاعلي) واســـ | OBjective researcher through this research to put my side of the strategic position on the market to go in business organizations in order to improve the current performance and future performance through the use of strategic orientation of deportation (Entrepreneurial Orientation, market Orientation, Interaction Orientation) And the use of scale (Balanced Scorecard) Bmnzawradtha four to measure its performance, has sought research to test a number of hypotheses main and branch - related relations link and relationships influence the research of variables (the strategic direction and performance), so to answer questions related to the problem of search, in particular questions basic (Are banks Iraqi special sample of the research has led strategic direction to achieve the best performance?, what the effect of the three strategic direction for its removal (leading orientation - market - oriented interactive - altuge) in the performance of the Iraqi Special) banks, And derives Find importance of being an inclusive framework "to test the impact of the strategic direction on the performance of banks, and to recognize the important role played by the first variable (strategic orientation) to influence the second variable (performance), the research aims to enable banks to enhance their ability to improve performance which is aimed at him through the development of a theoretical framework and strategic position on the market to go in business organizations and the diagnosis and interpretation of the nature of the correlations and effect between the strategic direction and performance of Iraqi banks research community and at the level of the dimensions. the researcher formulate a set of hypotheses was the most prominent of no significant moral correlation between strategic direction and performance, and there is a significant moral effect of the application of the strategic direction to improve performance. This research has been tested in the Iraqi banking sector represented by (Gulf) Commercial Bank and the Bank of Ashur International), and applied research on intentional sample of 85 managers and staff distributors in several administrative levels (Director, Department manager, branch manager, senior management staff) and use the search questionnaire head for the collection of data and information tool as well as personal interviews program and some private banks and annual reports, as well as the researcher used some statistical methods which (arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Pearson correlation analysis, and analysis of simple regression, financial ratios) The research has come to a set of conclusions was the most important, the presence of correlation and the relationship of positive influence strategic direction of the three for its removal in the performance of Iraqi private banks, the research community, and the dimensions of the strategic direction has sparked mixed on the performance of banks research sample, it is found that the impact of the pioneering trend in priority first, interactive approach in the second priority, and market - oriented in the third priority. Also found there are high positive correlation between the strategic direction (in general) and the performance of the banking banks sample section, also showed the results of descriptive analysis (general rate) to keep the strategic direction, Gulf Commercial Bank and the Bank of UNESCO's International achieved high adoption of the strength of the vertebrae search variables implying the absorption of the surveyed banks the importance of the strategic direction of all dimensions, "which will reflect positively on its performance.Based on the findings of the research results has developed a set of recommendations was the most important. Increase the interest of the Iraqi private banks, the research community strategic direction because of its direct impact on the performance of banks and the success of its business, the need for the departments of the surveyed banks to benefit from positive relations through the preparation of future plans and determine the long - term objectives to be achieved by exploiting the opportunities available to them, and exploiting the internal potential and its impact on the banking performance, as well as conduct in - depth studies to find out the reasons for the negative impact of the move towards the market in the performance of the surveyed banks and processed increases the efficiency of its interaction with the perspectives of the other balanced Scorecard, the need for the surveyed banks to adopt the use of balanced performance Bmnzawradtha the four card being a system of "comprehensive and integrated "to measure its performance.

معوقات التنمية الاقتصادية في العراق بعد عام 2003 بحث تحليلي مقارن في ضوء معطيات التجربة الماليزية == Impediments of Economic Development In Iraq After 2003, A Comparative Analysis of The Malaysian Experience

Author name: حامد رحيم جناني
Supervisor name: لورنس يحيى صالح
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاقتصاد يشكل حجر الاساس في بناء كيان الدولة، وعامل اساس في صناعة الاستقرار العام كونه يمثل بنية تحتية يساهم في صناعة القيم الاجتماعية السائدة وشكل الدولة السياسي،وبذات الوقت ان الاصلاح الاقتصادي وتحقيق التنمية هو نتيجة طبيعية للدولة المتماسكة الحديثة | Economy is the foundation stone of the state and an important factor in the stability of the state. It is an essential factor in the formation of the prevailing social values and the policy of the state At the same time, economic reform is the product of a cohesive modern state.That means that economy is a cause and an effect. Economy plays a major role in Iraq, which is suffering from a difficult and exceptional circumstances because of the lack of balance between the elements of economic development and its economy. The necessary condition to achieve development is the diagnosis of the obstacles that prevent the development and study of international experience in a country has achieved development. This requires a study of the concept of economic development and take advantage of intellectual development at the level of modernity. Then the Obstacles of the development are analyzed comprehensively. After that the ways to achieve the development of the Iraqi economy are showed because the Iraqi economy has important ingredients and opportunities that make it capable of achieving development. In order to achieve the above, we should follow the induction in Iraq and the elicitation to clarify the experience of Malaysia for achieving economic development The Malaysian circumstances before development were similar to the current Iraqi circumstances. Consensual democracy is the reason of the political struggles in Iraq as well as the reality of the situation explains there is an inverse relationship between oil's revenues and achieving development in Iraq because of the dominance of government on the economy and the emergence of Dutch disease The decision - makers' will and ability should be available at the level of development that coupled with the strategic economic planning

استخدام اسلوب بيز التجريبي في تقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي == Using Empirical Bayes Approach For Estimating Parameters In A Linear Regression Model

Author name: حازم منصور كوركيس عربو
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The primary purpose of our thesis is to assess the importance of using empirical Bayes approach in regression analysis. At the first some empirical Bayes techniques in point estimation are considered. It is well known that in point estimation with a squared error loss function the Bayes estimator is the posterior mean. In the empirical Bayes approach we must construct a consistent sequence of estimators for this posterior mean using past experience. This construction is done for three general families of distributions. New estimators for the parameters in the simple orthogonal linear regression model are presented using not only the usual random sample of observations but also past experience in the form of previous estimators of parameters in similar but independent situations. The regression parameters are considered to be random variables. Bayes estimators are given for a squared error loss function. Even though the prior density of the parameter is unknown the Bayes estimator can be written in terms of the marginal density of sufficient statistic. This marginal density can be estimated empirically , thus forming the empirical Bayes estimator. Empirical Bayes estimators for the parameters in the general linear regression model are presented. These estimators by pass exact knowledge of the prior distribution of parameters by means of supplementary informations from similar independent experiments. The case in which the error variance is unknown and may vary from one experiment to the next is included. Some basic concepts in shrinkage estimators are introduced. The definition of multicolinearity as the existence of near linear relationships among the independent variables is given. Effects of multicolinearity on estimated regression coefficients are explained. Sources of multicolinearity and methods of detecting multicolinerity are presented. The method of ridge regression is given as one of several methods that have been proposed to remedy multicolinearity problems by modifying the method of least squares to allow biased estimators of the regression coefficients. The technique of ridge regression first proposed by Hoerl and Kennard has become a popular tool for data analysts faced with a high degree of multicolinearity in their data. Ridge solution properties and methods for choosing the ridge parameter are presented. The first method is graphical applied by using graphical display called 'ridge trace' the second method is the iterative method proposed by Hoerl and Kennard. The equivalence of ridge regression estimator with Bayers estimator is proved. Bayesian methods are employed for choosing the ridge parameter. An empirical Bayes estimator of the ridge parameter is presented. An empirical Bayes estimator of the ridge parameter which result in minimax ridge regression estimator under strawderman's loss function (formula 2.81) is also presented. By minimax estimator we mean an estimator which is uniformly better than the least square estimator in terms of risk. In the practical part of the thesis we apply ridge regression analysis to the set of actual data suffer from multicolinearity. Three methods are employed to determine the value of the ridge parameter. Comparisons between the three methods are made on the basis of various statistics that might go into the choice of the ridge parameter. According to these comparisons we conclude that the value of the ridge parameter obtained by using empirical Bayes approach (formula 2.78) is better than the other two methods. Ridge analysis is repeated for another set of experimental data obtained by constraint simulation. The same conclusion is obtained when the dependent variable is any one of the variables Y2 ,..... Y6.

توافق نظرية القيود والتحسين المستمر (كايزن) وانعكاسه على التكلفة والانجاز == Compatibility Between Theory of Constraints And The Continuous Improvement (Kaizen) And Reversing It On Cost And Throughput

Author name: حازم عبد عزيز الغرباوي
Supervisor name: نصيف جاسم الجبوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نتيجة التغيرات التي شهدتها بيئة التصنيع الحديث وما ترتب عن ذلك من احداث المزيد من التطورات في اساليب وتكنلوجيا الانتاج، الامر الذي يتطلب ضرورة تطوير الطرائق والاساليب الادارية بالشكل الذي يتناغم مع ما تطرحه بيئة التصنيع الحديث، وبناء على ذلك جاءت الدراسة | As a result of changes in the modern manufacturing environment and the consequential events further developments in methods and technology of production, which requires the need to develop methods and management techniques manner that is consistent with what posed by modern manufacturing environment, and therefore came the study to review Philosophy and ideas of both theory constraints (TOC) and continuous improvement (Kaizen), with the synergies between them, and a statement as to ensure economic units maximize the efficient use of available resources. Focused on the problem format question : Is that the application of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) in light of the use of continuous improvement (Kaizen) leads to solve the bottlenecks next to exploit the best use of resources and thus reduce costs and maximize achievement ?, Hence spawned the idea for the study of an integration of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) and continuous improvement (Kaizen), and integration here does not mean to get into a mismatch, but should they get to the level of compatibility between them through a flexible base shared by the founding objectives of the study variables. So came the study in order to achieve the main goal of that : "the study and analysis of the possibility of achieving consensus among all of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) and continuous improvement (Kaizen) and to highlight the impact of this agreement in the areas of cost reduction and maximizing achievement," In order to achieve this goal has to be the pursuit of other sub - objectives are as follows : ? assess the efficiency of the Theory of Constraints in the identification and management of production processes restrictions on the short - term.? study the ability of continuous improvement (Kaizen) in resolving bottlenecks and then make a real additions in the area of cost reduction.? study the feasibility of the theory of constraints in the rationalization of operating decisions standards, through the use of information generated by accounting achievement in choosing the optimal mix of productive, and the impact on Increase Throughput. In order to achieve the objectives of the study has been applied in the field in Wasit State Company for Textile Industries, knitting factory, Department of socks, because the study was based on the descriptive and analytical experimental method to prove the hypothesis, while the study of temporal boundaries extended period ,(1/1/2014 - 1/7/2014). The study found a set of conclusions in part, theoretical and practical, and most important : it is futile to apply the Theory of Constraints (TOC) form a single, but it should be applied orthoses one of modern management methods, which include Total Quality Management (TQM), the value VE Engineering)), cost based on activities (ABC), continuous improvement (Kaizen), and in line with the visions and strategies of economic units. The most important thing recommended by the study of studies and research future that are joining the Theory of Constraints (TOC) with a cost management methods, which include process re - BPR Engineering)), cost entrance on the basis of activities (ABC), the entrance of Value Engineering (EV), and the application in a lab Department of knitting socks and the extent of the feasibility of what is proposed format via the conclusion of this study regarding the cancellation or merge knitting stage as the activity is not necessary.

القيمة المضافة للمعرفة في ظل تداؤبية العلاقة بين المورد المعرفي وتكنولوجيا المعلومات : بحث ميداني مقارن في بعض المصارف الاهلية العراقية == Knowledge Value Added Under The Relationship Synergistic Between Knowledge Resource And Information Technology Comparative Field Research In Some of The Iraqi Private Banks

Author name: حاتم علي عبد الله الحمداني
Supervisor name: صلاح الدين عواد كريم الكبيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
Key words:
  • المورد المعرفي، تكنولوجيا المعلومات
  • القيمة المضافة للمعرفة
  • سلسلة قيمة المعرفة
  • مقدرات المورد المعرفي
  • امكانات تكنولوجيا المعلومات
  • نموذج خلق المعرفة
First pages:
Abstract: تضمن البحث تكوين تصورات واضحة حول القيمة المضافة للمعرفة من خلال تداؤبية العلاقة بين المورد المعرفي الاساس في هذه القيمة وتكنولوجيا المعلومات كاداة مساعدة في تحقيقها استنادا الى طروحات(Nonaka et al,1996)، في محاولة لتعميم النظرية وامكانية تطبيقها في البي | The present research tries to create a clear perceptions on Knowledge Value added through the Synergetic relationship between the fundamental Knowledge resource in this value and information technology as a tool to assist in their investigation, based to the proposals of (Nonaka et al, 1996), who tried to generalize this theory and apply it in the Iraqi environment, therefore, this research is a start from the research dilemma to bridge the Knowledge gap between the existing intellectual reviews and the possibilities of its applications, it aims to identify the Knowledge resource Competencies and information technology Capabilities and their impact through the Synergetic relationship to achieve the Knowledge value added. The present research is basically on the deductive approach driving from the subjectivism philosophy to deriving it's Hypotheses from the theoretical framework, then trying to test it through statistical and knowledge means in order to verify the objectivity through : first, analytical survey for (114) managers working in three private banks (Middle East, Trade Gulf and North) to verify the availability of Knowledge value added by using statistical means and comparison between them. Second, based on the Knowledge value added methodology which proposed by (Housel & Bell, 2001) to support the first tool and make a comparisons among the three private banks which was supported by the coefficient of creating intellectual value by knowledge means, this was based on Simi - structured interviews with (15) managers to identify the learning times, further, to know the ration of completion the banks processes through the information technology.The results of the present research are supporting all the propose hypothesis based on the experimental level except sixth hypothesis that dealt with finding the significant differences between the research sample banks, and the content analysis which been proofed through it that the Gulf Bank was superior based on return on Knowledge and the coefficient of creating the intellectual value, second and third placed were for Middle East bank and North bank respectively, in spite of the absence of significant differences between them as test (One way ANOVA). Based on the results we can recommend using the Knowledge as platform in the banks working environment and take advantage of the Competencies of its knowledge resource, then the research was closed by many suggested future studies.

تعزيز فاعلية نظام موازنة البرامج والاداء باطار نظريات ادارة الوقت == Enhance The Effectiveness of Programs And Performance System In Theories of Time Management Framework

Author name: جوان جاسم خضير العبيدي
Supervisor name: سلمان حسين عبد الله الطيار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى دراسة مفهوم موازنة البرامج والاداء وتحليل ابرز النقاط التي تبنى عليها هذه الموازنة وبيان فائدتها وفاعليتها في فرض الرقابة على الانفاق الحكومي، وكذلك تسليط الضوء على مفهوم ادارة الوقت وبيان النظريات التي تبنى عليها هذه الادارة وبيان دور ادار | The research aims to study the concept of budget programs, performance and analysis the most highlight points that the budget depends on, also state its usefulness and effectiveness in the imposition of controls on government expenditures, as well as explain the concept of time management and explain theories the administration depends on also explain the time management roles with its theories and styles it offer when mixed with the programs and budget performance and it will lead to enhance control over government expenditures as well as assist in determining accurate estimates.The research achieve these goals through the following premiere hypothesis to enhance the effectiveness of control on government expenditure by depending on budget programs, performance framed by time management theories.This study has reached a set of conclusions we will mention the most important : 1 - Managers and officials in response to application programs and budget performance and enhance it with priority theories to manage time which enables the software to prepare estimates being known for managers that helps control government expenditures, it is then verified statement of planned targets achievements.2 - Budget programs and performance has a role in time loss reduction by identifying programs and timetables for the implementation of each program within the budget.The study has find the following : a - The need to adopt budget programs and performance by the ministry of finance - General Accounting Department in the preparation of state budget because it based on scientific and practical foundations in preparing estimates which will help to achieve future programs and imposition controls on government expenditures.b - The need to adopt priority theories by time managing in programs arrangement, also arrange activities in the program according to priority and importance which lead to the allocation of resources for chosen programs and then allocation the needed time to implement all the programs that helps in estimate expenditures for every program which helps in impose controls on government expenditures

مقارنة بعض طرائق التقدير اللا معلمية لنموذج الانحدار التجميعي المجزا باستعمال المحاكاة مع التطبيق == A Comparison of Some Nonparametric Estimation Methods of An Additive Quantile Regression Model Using Simulation With Application

Author name: جنان عبد الله عنبر
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان استعمال النماذج المعلمية يتطلب توافر معلومات كافية عن الظاهرة المدروسة مع معرفة المجتمع الذي سحبت منه العينة وان تكون معلماته معرفة لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثين الى البحث عن نماذج ا | Using of the parametric models requires a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models, so too many considerations have been made for the Nonparametric Regression, in the last years. The main reason of that was the researchers’ belief that pure parametric methods for estimating the regression curve have shortage with the flexibility needed for data analysis - especially the quantitative data - . With the progress made in computers, in both hardware and software, it has become possible to develop many of Nonparametric Regression Methods including the "Quantile Methods". In spite of that, the researcher see the most of papers and articles concern univariate case, where the researchers about bivariate case still with limited. In the other hand, the researches extension to multivariate case nonexistent in Iraq - in the scope of researcher’s knowledge - , which gives an extremely importance for the aim of this study, to bring attention for alternative methods or modified methods that can be efficient ones to improve the currently methods. Thus, the most important purpose of the research, is the use of Tow - Stages method, which helps the researchers to compute Nonparametric estimators for the components of Nonparametric models to avoid the curse of dimensionality.It divideds the components to set of points called "Quantiles" , then estimates the quantile function by one of the quantile methods we explained in this research, ( Marginal Integration, Backfitting, and Tow - Stages ). The simulation has been designed for the illustrated models and it has been checked about the estimation methods performance by using the Absolute Deviation Error (ADE) criterion, then compute the Average Absolute Deviation Error (AADE). From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best estimator was Tow - stages estimator in case of high correlation and / or high dimensions. To achieve the purpose of this research, the study has been divided into five chapters. Chapter one, consists of an introduction, the aim of the thesis under research, and a literature survey. Chapter two covers the parametric regression quantile estimation. While Chapter three devoted for Nonparametric estimations methods. Chapter four devoted for Simulation experiments and practical experiment with real data. Finally, Chapter five comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the research has recommended.

مقارنة بعض المقدرات البيزية الحصينة مع مقدرات اخرى لانموذج GARCH(1.1) مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparing of Some Robust Bayesian Estimators With Another Estimators For Garch (1.1) With Practical Application

Author name: جنان عبد الله عنبر
Supervisor name: نزار مصطفى جواد الصراف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعاني بعض السلاسل الزمنية من التقلبات او عدم الثبات في التباين مثل السلاسل المالية والاقتصادية والبيئية وغيرها, وقد يرافق ذلك وجود التلويث او القيم الشاذة في تلك السلاسل والذي يرافق عملية جمع البيانات في اغلب الاحيان ولاسباب عديدة قد يؤثر ذلك بشكل كبير عل | Some of time series suffer from volatility or instability in variation, such as financial , economic , environmental and other time seriesIt was accompanied by the presence of contamination or stray values in those chains that accompanies the data collection process often for many reasons, which greatly affect the estimation models parameters and thus makes the estimated models parameters and thus makes the estimated models are inaccurate and affect the future in the forecasting process this makes the process of estimation the traditional methods is not accurate and not feasible in practice and that is what led many researchers to find alternative methods of estimating for those methods reduce the impact of contamination and the volatility in the process of estimating the time series models,, including autoregressive conditional heteroscadestic models family (ARCH and GARCH). So the goal came thesis complement the work of researchers as thesis aims to find robust Bayesian estimators to the estimate first order generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscadestic model GARCH (1.1) when errors followed normal distribution, and that by proposing three robust Bayesian methods to estimate a method (y ?BM.Bayes) and method (BM.Bayes) and the reduced method (BM.Bayes Shrinkag). As was the use of certain methods of estimation models (GARCH), such as (MLE) traditional method of estimation and the method of (Bayes) and three robust bounded methods a (BM.Huber) and two methods by the proposed (BM.Hample) and (BM.Tukey). The use of simulation in the style of the experimental side for a comparison between the methods adopted in research using polluting ratios (0% 0.1% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20%) and volumes of samples (500, 1000.1500), In addition to the use of different values of the parameters it is found favorable proposed method (BM.Bayes) be when the values of the two parameters (?1, ?) close to each other when any correlation strength is high , Simulations were also on the values of the parameters of the real series that have been estimated in a manner program application (MLE) and some of them were far from any values that weak correlation strength , It turns out that the best method was the proposed (BM.Bayes.Shrinkag). In the practical side it has been stated in the application of the theoretical side of the building stages of the model and testing of those stages on a series of (1254) Show prices daily sales of Basrah, for the period (2 \ 1 \ 2008 - 31 \ 12 \ 2012) through the application of the proposed third method (the reduced method) (BM.Bayes Shrink) which was best when applied to the estimated values of the parameters in a manner (MLE) in the experimental side as it made less (MSE) and estimate the appropriate model GARCH (1,1) proposed the adoption of the reduced way (BM.Bayes.Shrinkag).

قياس اثر برامج الاصلاح الاقتصادي على الفجوة الغذائية في الوطن العربي : مصر, الاردن حالة دراسية == Measuring The Impact of Economic Reform Programmes On The Food Gap In The Arab Homeland : Egypt & Jordan (Case Study)

Author name: جليل كامل غيدان الجبوري
Supervisor name: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The world order witnessed vast structural changes branded by rapidity and comprehensiveness which caused dramatical changes on many economical variables. It also influenced the social and economic situations to all countries whether developed or developing. So the developing countries find itself required to enter or adopt the policies of political reform imposed by the world economic environment factors, local factors represented by economic recession, increase in oil prices, aggravation of the crisis of foreign indebtedness, international increase of interest prices, the trend to globalization, the prominence of the private sector as a main axis to activate the economic activity and to undertake an effective role in the economic development. All these factors led to structural confusion in the economies of the developing countries, including the countries of the Arab Homeland. Food is regarded as an essential indicator for economic growth and a measure for the level of individual's luxury, so this study aims at showing the extent of the influence of the policies of the economic reform programmes used in the Arab World countries on the food gap represented by the difference between consumption and production hypothesizing that, these policies have positive and negative influences on the food gap. This study is divided into three chapters.The first chapter includes a theoretical vision for the economic reform programmes and its reflection on the food gap. The first section deals with the concepts of economic reform. In the second section, the food gap tackled, and the section devoted to the theoretical influences of the economic reform programmes on the food gap.The second chapter tackles the applications of the economic reform programmes and the food gap in chosen countries (Egypt & Jordan)..

الية مقترحة للابلاغ المالي عن تاثيرات الكوارث والحروب في البيئة العراقية وفق المعايير المحاسبية الدولية == Proposed Mechanism For Reporting Financial Disaster And War Effects In The Iraqi Environment In Accordance With International Accounting Standards

Author name: جعفر جواد جاسم العبيدي
Supervisor name: صفوان قصي عبد الحليم الطه
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد الكوارث الطبيعية وغير الطبيعية تحديات للبيئة والمجتمع والاقتصاد اذ تؤثر فيها بشكل مباشر وغير مباشر, والوحدات الاقتصادية جزء من هذا النظام المتداخل فيما بينها ومن ثم تتاثر بالمؤثرات الخارجية بشكل مباشر او غير مباشر ,هذه التاثيرات المباشرة تظهر في الدما | natural and non - natural disasters Is the challenges of the environment society and the economy as affecting them directly and indirectly, and economic units are part of the interoperability system among themselves and then affected by external substances directly or indirectly, these direct effects appear in the destruction and damage caused to disasters in the property and infrastructure and superstructure and accounting information systems,and indirect results of future business, come the research problem by reading issued by the Federal Office of financial supervision to address the damage caused by disasters accounting treatments became clear that there are a number of important topics that need to be discussed and to propose appropriate mechanisms to address them.The importance of research need decision - makers at all levels to a high - quality accounting information about the value of the damage caused as a result of disasters suffered by Iraq for more than once in recent decades, and it requires the review and update the accounting treatments approved by the Federal Office of Financial Supervision in order to respond to the need of decision makers and in line with international requirements, and the research adopted on the on main hypothesis that the development of integrated accounting system to work in light of disasters, wars, according to the proposed mechanism will contribute to the improvement of financial reporting and facilitates the calculation of the units affected by the economic losses.The research has reached a number of conclusions that the most important standardized accounting system is short of meeting the international financial reporting requirements as a result of not much recognition of accounting procedures when disaster which led to the distortion of the financial statements in relation to the value of the losses incurred from the impact of disasters and wars, and has recommended search a set of recommendations from the most important of the need to adopt the mechanism proposed financial reporting in light of disasters and wars in the local environment and the introduction of new items in the consolidated accounting manual, which applies to Iraqi companies

اثر الاندماج في تحسين كفاءة الاداء : دراسة تطبيقية في عينة من المصارف العراقية == Merger Its Effect On Developing Performance Efficiency An Empirical Study On Some Iraqi Banks

Author name: جاسم عيدان براك المعموري
Supervisor name: نجيب سليمان بطرس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: he world is witnessing rapid and significant changes can not racker and the observer will have to stand of her and identified beauty of the large and complex which due to the tremendous progress and considerable in the areas of communication and information technology, which made for the world's vast a system of a coherent Veins, and from it blew storms and competition hurricanes which took uprooted all entity have shallow roots and a fragile whatever its nature is or the method of its work and belonging to this or that sector, which should be that severe attention and careful in order to survive first, and the growth and expansion with maintaining this progress Secondly, and this includes various levels and sectors, especially the banking sector, which tracks the movement and path of the Iraqi banking we find it completed its with outdated procedures and no longer valid at this time which must adopt mechanisms with him and work developed programs which able to face meet global competition particularly global the fact that Iraq has become an open border and then in the arena of these threats and challenges, and from the mechanisms to be adopted is the traffic between Iraqi banks, and clustering within the concept of integration, as well as alliances, accession and other such modern strategies and that match with the times addresses. Hence the importance of this study, is came which did not stop at this point just. But extends to find access to the efficiency and identified in performance whether operational or financial. As a result of bypass Iraqi banks about the importance of mergers and adopt traditionally work methods do not meet minimum standards to face compete as well as the limited of studies in this area and from here, the search problem is determined. The search trying to put a major goal and sub - goals to reach how the completion mergers in the environment of Iraqi banks, and thus can count on of three Iraqi banks : contribution the Bank of Credit and United Bank, the Investment Iraqi Bank as sample randomly from among of banks, having been sure of confirmed to survive. The requirements of the study has been possible to obtain the data contained in the final accounts of these banks, to select the default format of the study and research theory. The study was distributed on four chapters, dealing with the theoretical and analytical aspects, the first chapter of the thesis deals with the identification of research methodology, which included the problem of research, important of this research, the goals of research, theory and the study assumptions, data sources and information, society and the sample of study, study and variables measuring and testing of hypotheses, and also stand on the previous reference studies in the subsection II. Chapter II has dealt with the theoretical and conceptual framework of the study, the first of which thesis focused on the study of integration and the second devoted to stand on performance efficient literature. Applied side was included on three main admonishing within Chapter III, the first thesis of which dealt integration, the second thesis was devoted to the analysis indicators the efficiency of performance, and finally came the third thesis to stand on the statistical relationships between integration and efficiency of performance in the banks. The research was ended with separated IV, which contains two thesis, the first of which dealt applied conclusions, while the second focused on the recommendations, which were mainly built on the conclusions which had reached through the analytical side Comparative of Research

استعمال بعض النماذج الاحتمالية المنفردة والمركبة المبتورة لتحديد خصائص التعويضات الصحية في شركة التامين العراقية == Use Some Probability Single & Compound Truncated Models To Determining The Characteristics of Health Payments In The Iraqi Insurance Company

Author name: ثائرة نجم عبد الله الامير
Supervisor name: قيس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نظرا لعدم وجود بحث احصائي سابق لسلوك تعويضات التامين الصحي الذي يمثل النسبة الاكبر من التعويضات في عموم شركات التامين في العراق، تم اختيار هذا البحث وتطبيقه في شركة التامين العراقية.ولغرض تحديد افضل انموذج احتمالي يمثل تعويضات التامين الصحي، تم استعمال | Due to the lack of previous statistical research of the behavior of payments, specifically health insurance, which represents the largest proportion of payments in the general insurance companies in Iraq, this study were selected and applied in the Iraqi insurance company.To determine the best model represent the health insurance payments, we used two probability models determined through the initial detection for the distribution of the research sample by use (Easy Fit) program.One : single, a (Lognormal) for all sample views, and the other compound (Compound Weibull) at dividing research sample into small losses and large losses, and focused on the compound model in some detail in terms of drafting and its importance. With the application of the state of amputation in both the fact that the specific health payments from the top by two million diners in this company.Both models Parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the use of style (Newton - Raphson) to find these estimates. And then compare between models using standard (MSE). Was reached in general that the compound model is better than a single model in the representation of payments.

طرائق تقدير عدد مرات الفشل في الانظمة القابلة للاصلاح

Author name: ثائر فيصل شاهر
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الهدف من هذا البحث تسليط الضوء على احد اهم وابرز المواضيع المعاصرة في دراسات المعولية وهو الانظمة القابلة للاصلاح والذي يعني ان النظام الذي عندما يحدث فيه فشل فيمكن اعادته للعمل باصلاح بعض مركباته دون الحاجة الى ابدالها. والذي يحظى بتطبيقات واسعة وخاص | The main purpose of this research was to study one of the main modern subject which is very important in the reliability studies, it is the repairable system, which means that if the component fails it immediately repaired.These studies have widely applications in many systems like watching machine of cars, airplanes and communication systems, that is failure make huge materiel and humane losses.It is found that these systems submit to Poisson process in particular the nonhomogenous Poisson process, the main contribution in this research is the modification in estimating the number of failures in repairable systems, and the derivation the distribution of n - failures where the distribution is General Gamma.Finally, some new results obtain and a simulation experiments were done to compare the proposed and classical methods.

الافصاح عن الالتزامات الاجتماعية في التقارير المالية في ظل القاعدة المحاسبية العراقية رقم (6) : دراسة نظرية وتطبيقية في شركة مصافي الوسط

Author name: سناء احمد ياسين خلف المشهداني
Supervisor name: ثائر صبري محمود الغبان
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

عوامل البيئة الداخلية وانعكاسها في عملية تقييم اداء العاملين : بحث ميداني == Internal Environment Factors And It'S Reflection In Employees Performance Appraisal Process A Field Research

Author name: ثامر ياسر حسين الغزي
Supervisor name: عبد الرحمن مصطفى طه الملا
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Performance Evaluation
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The current research addressed " Internal Environment Factors and it's Reflection in Employees Performance Appraisal Process " where the aim of the research is to reveal the nature and level of the internal environment factors and the reality of the Performance Appraisal Process in the ministry surveyed (Oil Ministry) and the reflection of the internal environment factors in the Performance Appraisal of employees Process in the ministry for this purpose formulated two main hypotheses of the search, the first there is a correlation relationship refers to moral and positive guidance between the two variables Internal environmental factors (organizational structure, organizational culture, leadership style) and the Employees Performance Appraisal Process of dimensions (Standards for the performance Appraisal, methods of performance Appraisal, feedback, Impediments for the performance Appraisal) and the second main hypothesis refers to be impact is moral guidance for the internal environment factors in the Employees Performance Appraisal Process , to achieve the tests of these two hypothesis the research used the style of comprehensive inventory that include all heads of departments in the ministry who numbered (52) department head and the rate of response was (100%), and used the resolution as an essential tool For data and information were complete data collection through field visits by the researcher interviews and some official documents, and data analysis was used (SPSS) program through which was obtained percentages and frequencies, and test Alva kronbach, and the coefficient of simple linear correlation (Spearmen) and simple linear regression to test the validity of hypotheses above and other analyzes have been used to test the research hypotheses were also used a number of statistical methods for data processing the most important of the arithmetic mean and standard deviation and the relative importance for the purpose of description answers the research sample, were used the style (Factor Analysis) in order to analyze the good paragraphs which will involve under scale search and what is the dimension to which they belong, and I've found search to a set of conclusions that the most important of all correlations statistical results between the internal environment factors and the process of evaluating the performance of employees was strong and significance , also the relationship impact have a moral guidance, in the conclusion the research concluded in a set of recommendations involving the interest in the human resource management and increasing consciousness and attention to the Performance Appraisal Process within the ministry

تقييم اداء الخدمة الصحية من وجهة نظر المستفيدين : بحث في عدد من الاجنحة الخاصة للمستشفيات الحكومية == Evaluating The Performance of The Health Service From The Perspective of The Beneficiaries,Research In A Number of Private Suites To Government Hospitals

Author name: ثامر كريم محمد العبودي
Supervisor name: عبد الرحمن مصطفى طه الملا
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى التعرف على مستوى الخدمات الصحية المقدمة في الاجنحة الخاصة للمستشفيات الحكومية من وجهة نظر متلقي الخدمة الصحية (المريض) وذلك من خلال التعرف عن مدى رضاه عن مجموعة من الابعاد التي لها تماس مباشر مع المريض والتي يستطيع ان يحكم عليها بسهولة وحيا | This research aims to identify the level of health services provided in private suites to government hospitals from the perspective of the recipients of the health service (patient)Through the recognition of how satisfied a set of variables that have a direct contact with the patient, which can be judged easily and impartial, where he was reliance in this research mainly on the questionnaire, which included six presidental variables providing to assess health services from the point of view patients (easiness of residence, social and behavioral characteristics, and hotel properties, and administrative features, efficient staffs working, general considerations) has been taking a random sample of (125 ) patients of the patients admitted in private suites distributed over a group of hospitals in Baghdad (the private nursing home hospital, Ibinalbalady hospital, Kadhimiya Teaching Hospital) was Tzemin Find a set of questions that reflect collectively on the problem of the search, and then determine the goals of the research and its importance, as well as formulate hypotheses major research derived from each of six hypotheses subsidiary was searched and verified using a combination of modern statistical methods and modern study found a number of important conclusions about the reality of the health service in private suites and most important of these conclusions is the weakness in the level of services provided in their own wing of the point of patients consider that there are significant moral correlation between all approved study variables in the evaluation and the patient satisfaction, except for administrative properties variable, it turns out that there are significant differences between the studied hospitals in the application of those variables differences, and this is proof that each hospital special direction in Dealing with these variables and its applications supposed to be uniform in all hospitals, while the most important recommendations that came out of research they need to set clear goals strategy concerning the work of the private suites take in consideration patients view for services rendered and the establishment of an integrated hospitals operate private suites system separated from the public sector to improve the level of health services to improve the image when the beneficiaries of these services.

تاثير المعلومات المحاسبية المضللة على تقويم نظام الرقابة الداخلية == Effect of Misleading Accounting Information To Evaluate Internal Control System

Author name: تيسير محمد جمعة الفلاحي
Supervisor name: صفوان قصي عبد الحليم الطه
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Accounting
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Accounting
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان سلسلة الازمات الاقتصادية والمالية التي شهدها الاقتصاد العالمي ادت الى زيادة الوعي باهمية الرقابة الداخلية , لانه يعد احد الدعائم الرئيسية في اي وحدة اقتصادية, اذ انه يعمل وفق مجموعه من الخطوات والاجراءات المتعلقة بالقوانين واجراءات حماية الموجودات من ا | That the economic and financial crises in the world economy series led to increased awareness of the importance of internal control system, because it is one of the main pillars of any economic unit, as it works to verify the application of policies and regulations and Laws and verification of asset protection from theft and embezzlement procedures, also works imparted confidence on accounting information through validation of accounting information, analysis and discovery of the misleading. The of the internal control system a factor in many of the accounting practices that limit the ability of the administration to produce misleading financial reporting.The research aims to the relationship between the accounting system and internal control system, and the concept of misleading accounting information statement and identify the factors that lead to misleading accounting information, as well as detect misinformation in accounting information and correlate it with the results of the evaluation of the internal control system. Where questionnaires to discover the strength and weakness of internal control system in detecting deception practices in accounting information, additionally analyzed reports of the external auditor for the sample companies To detect misinformation , As it has been the use of a set of statistical methods for analysis of relevant variables Find information and test hypotheses, including the percentages and the weighted samples t test for average calculations to test the relationship between the (FFS and NON - FFS) for each account. After the test the research hypotheses study found a set of conclusions, represented the most important of the following : .1. Through the analysis of the reports of the external auditor found no obligation sample companies search the local accounting rules, including accounting rule number (5) Inventory and accounting rule (4) accounting for the effects of the change in foreign exchange rates which affected the validity of the balances shown in the financial statements.2. through a simple linear regression results turned out that most of the accounts has no effect on the appearance of misleading accounting information (sales, total assets, working capital, debtors , inventory, total debt) Research presented a number of recommendations, : 1. Assessment of the internal control system continuously according to the external auditor's observations and that it contributes to reducing practices that result in misinformation and reporting, and ensuring the operation of the internal audit committee help to identify existing strengths and weaknesses in the internal control system for the purpose of processing.2. The need for coordination between the departments of companies productivity and financial oversight that would assist in the performance of internal oversight work better, work on comparisons with similar companies to exchange ideas and solutions to problems.

تصميم الترتيب الداخلي الافضل للمصنع باستعمال تقنية التخصيص النسبي المحوسب للتسهيلات (CRAFT) : بحث تطبيقي في الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية / مصنع المامون == The Design of Optimal Layout Using Computerized Relative Allocation of Facilities Technique (CRAFT) - Applied Research In Al - M'Ammon Factory / The General Company For Vegetable Oils Industry

Author name: تبارك محمود شكر الجبوري
Supervisor name: ايثار عبد الهادي ال فيحان المعموري | احمد زيدان محمد الشمري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Industrial Management
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ستند هذا البحث, على تصميم وتطبيق برنامج (تقنية) (CRAFT), بغية اعادة تخصيص مراكز عمل مصنع المامون / الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية, لارتفاع كلف المناولة بين مراكز العمل التي تصل الى (63,026) دينار / اليوم, وطول المسافة الخطية المقطوعة بين مراكز العمل | This research based on design and application a program (Technique) (CRAFT), in order to Re - allocation work centers of (Al - M'ammon Factory / The General Company for Vegetable Oils Industry), the high handling costs that reach to (63,026) dinars / day, and length of the distance travelled between work centers which up to (21,778) m / day. The research aims to reach to optimal layout of the factory. In order to reduce the handling costs and reduce the distance travelled between work centers to a minimum, The technique was applied in two stages : - Stage 1 : - Apply (CRAFT) technique according to the initial layout.Stage 2 : - Apply (CRAFT) technique according to the proposed layout reaching to the optimum layout. The results of these layouts has obtained from these two stages, compared with the result evaluation of the initial layout of the factory. As well as, compare the result obtained from the first stage with the result obtained from the second stage, in order to obtain optimum layout of the factory. After procedure these comparisons, optimal layout achieved for the factory from the second stage. Being reduce the costs of material handling rate (22.6%) of the total handling costs for initial layout. As well as reduce (19.2%) of the total distance for initial layout.The research found a set of conclusions. The most important weakness of the efficiency of the initial factory layout, Which turn causes the wasting and losing of a lot of time and effort jacks and persons who transfer materials, and increasing the overall time of production, is produced in the loss of the factory because of high material handling costs between work centers. This research concluded with several recommendations, the most important work on the application of the new layout, which obtained from the application of technique (CRAFT) in the second stage.

تصميم نظام كمدخل استراتيجي لتطبيقات الحكومة الالكترونية : دراسة حالة في مديرية التسجيل العقاري - البياع == Designing A System For Applying Electronic Governmen A Strategic Approch

Author name: بيداء ستار لفتة البياتي
Supervisor name: صباح مجيد سعيد النجار | عبد الرحمن حامد الحسيني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Business Administration
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يحظى موضوع الحكومة الالكترونية باهتمام كبير من مختلف المنظمات في الدول المتقدمة والنامية على حد سواء، وذلك لاهميته في مجال تقديم الخدمات الى كل من قطاع الاعمال، والمواطنين، وما بين الدوائر الحكومية نفسها، وعليه يهدف هذا البحث الى تصميم نظام ليكون مدخلا ا | This search was aimed to design A system in order to Applying electronic government A strategic Approch in which the researched orgainaization (Directorate of Real - Estate Registration / Al - Bayaa) to enter in its apply. The case was accounted to process the search, interview, vission, and field visits were made to the searched orginazation and the organizations related to it, and also depend on the special records and documents to collect the data wanted to observe the traditional reality of the system and the work patter (proceduure) followed currently, according to that we made use of checking list as a loot to collect the data and information, and using the percentage and the median as statistic styles to analyze these data, and also to define the extent of (range of) applying the electronic government strategy in it.The propsed system was designed by using the managing data base system (Oracle) (81,I) and it’s programs were written in the structured Query language (SQL) , and the reason behind using this developed system, was it represents one of the best systems to managing, high - level data base, specialized in managing the network or the related computers among the organization, in addition to what it offers of facilities in exchaging the information and documents and providing the services, because it had high abilities which allow it to be accurate in handling the data and the easyness in reaching it.The choice was focused on one of the landed procedures which were process of selling the land parts as a sample for the search, because it reaches the highest percentage out of the done landed deals for the period of (1 - 1 - 2002) to (31 - 12 - 2002) which represents (33%) from total.The search have come to some conclusions : the application of the searched organization to the electronic government strategy and through the usage of data bases management system (Oracle), will help in achiving the customer( Citizen) satisfaction through the reached time taken to complete the after it was consuming long period could reach to three months, and that was due to the system ability to store the information and data in quality and quantity and in an organized order, also not having rapid processes in collecting, entring and handling these data.

مقارنة مقدرات بيز الحصين مع مقدرات اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية التقريبية لتوزيع ويبل == A Comparison of Robust Bayesian Estimators With Another Estimators To Estimate The Approximation of Reliability Function For Weibull Distribution

Author name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
Supervisor name: مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: من الملاحظ ان معظم البحوث والدراسات في مجال الاحصاء ولاسيما في حقل المعولية تهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. لاسيما عندما تكون بيانات العينة قيد الدراسة ملوثة. او في حالة عدم التحديد الدقيق للمعلومات المسبقة او في حالة ظهور الحالتين م | It is noticed that most of the researches and studies in the field of statistics particularly in the field of reliability aiming to obtain estimators of very high standard of competency specially when the sample data under study is contaminated, or in the case of not determining accurately the previous information or in case both cases appear together. From here came the objective of the thesis to come to competent estimators of the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution which is considered one of the common failure models. Through studying the ordinary procedures represented in the maximum likelihood method and method of moments and white’s method as well as the ordinary robust methods represented by the method of M - estimate and bayes procedure as well. Therefore bayes procedure was suggested depending on natural conjugate prior function in addition to suggesting three methods according to robust bayes procedure where the first suggested procedure of robust bayes assumed that there is an extent of belief and to a certain percentage with the researcher (the percentage of the researcher falling into mistake in determining the primary information) where the accurate determination of the primary information has already been made which will be integrated with the sample prospects to obtain bayes estimater As to the second suggested procedure of the robust bayes it treated the problem of the sample prospects contamination or the primary information. Whereas the third robust bayes procedure suggestion had treated the problem of appearance of both problems together - that is inaccuracy in determining the primary information and the possibility of contamination to the sample views or the primary views as well, found a comparison between the studied evaluation methods by using the simulation procedure. It has been arrived to the success of the suggested methods in evaluating the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution depending on the two statistical scales (Integral Mean Square Error) (IMSE) and the (Integral Mean Absolute Percentage Error) (IMAPE).

استخدام الانموذج الفكري لتحسين وتطوير اداء العاملين في المنظمات الصحية العراقية : دراسة تطبيقية في دائرة صحة بغداد / الرصافة == The Use of The Conceptual Model To Improve And Develop Employees Performance In The Iraqi Health Organizations.

Author name: بيان حسن توفيق خيوكة
Supervisor name: عباس علي ظاهر العامري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Hospital Management
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: استخدام الانموذج الفكري لتحسين اداء العاملين للجمعية الدولية لتحسين الاداء في المنظمات الصحية العراقية يعتبر اتجاه جديد لتحسين اداء العاملين بطريقة منهجية علمية منظمة تهدف الى تحديد وتشخيص فجوة الاداء وذلك بمقارنة الاداء الفعلي بالاداء المرغوب بالاعتماد | This dissertation aims to use the conceptual model of the international society for performance improvement to improve the employees performance it can be concedered as an effective view to improve the employee performance in asystemic , scientific and systematic manner that aims to detect and diagnose the performance gap and we can do this depending on certen measures and criteria and standards to measure employee performance and evaluate and it will help in providing the manager with informations needed in the continuity of the improvement process. The conceptual model consist of six steps which started by performance analysis , cause analysis , suggesting improvement strategies and interventions , impliment these interventions depending on scientific and systematic change management and appraise the whole improvement process to insure the continuity of the improvement process. The research scheme uses random sample of ( 24 ) respondents chosen from the general directory of health in Baghdad Al - Resafaa and some of its health organization and in adifferent managerial levels.The main conclusions attained ara : - 1. weekness in the capiblty of the respondents chosen in detecting the problems that interfear and effect the employee performance 2. weekness in the capiblty of the respondents in suggesting the strategies and interventions to improve employee performance.3. the management of the health organization seems to be a crisis management.4. the high capiblty of the respondents which have diploma - hospitals administration degree in detecting the problems and understanding , suggesting the interventions needed for improvement.the most important recommendations are : - 1. improve the managerial employee performance and other employees as a whole.2. inhance and develop the abilities and skills depending on training and continuous education.3. implementing some new organizational values like ( justice , transparency , communication ,…. Etc. ).4. improve and develop human resource management in Iraqi health organization.

تقدير دالة المعوليـة لتوزيع لوغارتيم الطبيعي مع تطبيق عملي == Estimate of Reliability Function For Lognormal Distribution With Practical Application

Author name: بلسم مصطفى شفيق النائب
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم | فرحان اسماعيل العاني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد كان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد في دراسة موضوع المعولية في السنوات الاخيرة يعود الى التطور التكنولوجـي والتقني السريـع واستخدام الانظمـة الالكترونية المعقـدة في مختلف المجالات. وعليه فان دراسة موضوع المعولية والربط بين الجانبين النظري والتطبيقي امر له | The studies of the subject - matter of Reliability with connecting between theoretical and application sides , it is an important matter now a days because the technology development with using electronic systems.In this study it is used the Lognormal Distribution as a failure models when the failure rate to these models initially increases over time and then decreases approaching Zero with increasing time , and find out the estimators of reliability function by different methods.The estimates are : 1. Maximum Likelihood Estimation.2. Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator.3. Bayes Estimation.And then comparing between the priorities of the estimates through using the Monte - Carlo method and conducting several experiments using Mean Square Error.Generally result show that Maximum Likelihood Estimation to estimate Reliability is better than the other methods , Regarding the practical aspect the data of life time for four machines from EIGC and found after using chi - Square test that the life time for test machines distribute Lognormal and the estimation of Reliability function for machines done using Maximum Likelihood Method

تحليل اثر تقلبات السوق المالية على اسعار الصرف في عدد من البلدان النامية مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == Effect of Financial Market Volatilities On The Exchange Rate In The Number of The Developing Countries Including Iraq

Author name: بلال محمد اسعد محمود
Supervisor name: عماد محمد علي عبد اللطيف العاني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى تحليل العلاقة بين بيانات مؤشر السوق المالية مع سعر الصرف الاجنبي في عدد من البلدان النامية، مع اثبات وجود اثر لتقلبات مؤشر السوق المالية على سعر الصرف الاجنبي لعملة البلد الذي يشهد تقلبات في سوقه الاساسي للاوراق المالية، مع التركيز على حالة | This study aim at analyzing the relationship between the financial market index data with the foreign exchange rate in the number of the developing countries, with certifying the existence of an effect to the volatilities of the financial market index on the foreign exchange rate of a country currency that witnesses volatilities in its basic financial market, with focus on a case of Iraq state, by using models of (GARCH) Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity with used recently in analyzing and discovering the volatilities in the financial markets particularly and the risks resulted in, and an extent of results accuracy of this model has been tested by using Granger causality test.The study includes the daily data of a sample for seven states (Iraq, Saudia Arabia, Qatar, Tunisia, Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE) for the period beginning in 2/1/2010 and till of 19/11/2013, because these are developing countries enjoying with active markets of the financial indexes besides the exchange rate, and their economies are nearly similar as depending on a basic resource the oil exports or tourism at large and similar to Iraq case.There are two methods to discuss and analyzing the relationship between the volatilities in the financial market and the volatilities in exchange rate : the traditional method and modern financial portfolio method. The study concluded that states (Indonesia, Saudia Arabia, UAE) has analysis results were identical to the classical method saying that the exchange rate effects on financial market index, while other states (Malaysia, Tunisia, Iraq) had analysis results were identical to the financial portfolio method which emphasizes that volatilities in the financial market index effect on currency exchange rate of these states.The bi - direction relationship between the financial market index and the exchange rate was appeared clearly in the case of (Qatar) state, since the analysis of data series of this state showed the existence of mutual effect to the volatilities of the two financial and exchange rate markets. Granger causality test has come to confirm an accuracy extent and the rightness to the estimated relationship and its identification to the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity GARCH (1,1) for the financial time series of the states as sample under study.
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