First pages:

استعمال اساليب السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بالتضخم الشهري في العراق للسنوات 2017 - 2021 == Using Time Series Models To Forecasting The Monthly Inflation In Iraq For (2017 - 2021)

Author name: خوله جعفر احمد

Supervisor name: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Applied Statistics

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يشكل التضخم عائقا امام تنمية الدولة لما يقع عليه من اضرار اقتصادية واجتماعية لذا تحرص الدول على متابعة سلوكه احصائيا من اجل اخذ الحيطة والحذر والحيلولة دون ارتفاعه عن طريق اتخاذ القرارات السليمة ورسم السياسات الكفوءة.لذا يهدف البحث الى ايجاد افضل انموذ | Inflation forms an obstacle to the country's development because due to its influence on the economic and social damage, so the state is keen to follow up on its conduct statistically in order to take caution and prevent rising through sound decision - making and efficient fee policies.So research aims to forecast the inflation rates Through a series of inflation on the one hand and a series of indices on the other hand, for the period (Jan 2017 - Dec 2021) and reaching any strings best in the prediction by models (Box - Jenkins) and based on the indices data for the period (Jan 2009 - Dec 2015), through the modeling of the data in accordance with the methodology (Box - Jenkins) to build models starting from the diagnosis stage and the ending in the stage to predicting forecasting ,so several types of (ARIMA) models have been proposed, including choosing the most appropriate model specimen , according to the trade - off criteria (RMSE, MAPE , BIC, AIC, Schwarz, Hannan - Quinn), then used the possible greatest function in the estimation of the model specimen parameters, it has conducted tests (Ljung - Box, test my own confidence and Normal distribution of errors test) to determine the appropriateness of the model diagnosed, and then made a future forecasts according to the model, specimen It is better to get of the results based on the ready softwares (SPSS - 22) and the program (Gretl - 1.1) and the results that have been reached were, series of inflation rates stable in mean ,seires indices of consumer prices is'nt stable, where it has a general trend stabilized after taking the first difference and depending on the test (Augmented Dickey Fuller), and was reached that the best model for forecasting inflation of inflation series is a specimen ARIMA (0,0,2) (1,0,1)12 and using the indices series is a model ARIMA (0,1, 2) (1,0,0) 12 and if we make a comparison between the two models forecasting predictions concluded that the forecasting prediction by using a series of inflation gives better results than using the indices to predict a series where the average to smooth the predicted average inflation closer to the original series and therefore, the predictive values of rates inflation closer to the values of the original series viewing And that curve prediction of a series of inflation rates better than the curve predictions using the indces as he gave finer predictions and longer periods of time.

واقع اجراءات الرقابة المخزنية للحد من التسرب الدوائي : دراسة استطلاعية في مستشفى الكاظمية التعليمي == Reality of Inventory Control Procedures To Prevent Leakage of Drug An Exploratory Study In Al - Kadhemyia Educational Hospital

Author name: خلود كريم عبد كبة

Supervisor name: سعدون حمود جثير الربيعاوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Hospital Management

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

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Abstract: يعد تسرب الدواء من قبل العاملين في المنظمات الصحية التي يعملون فيها، من الممارسات السلبية التي لم تعد خافية او يمكن انكارها، والتي اثرت على المخزون الدوائي في المستشفيات، ولخصوصية المستشفيات كمنظمات خدمية تعمل على مدار الساعة، وتتعامل مع حياة الناس، ولكون | The leakage of the drug by those working in health organizations in which they work, the negative practices that are no longer hidden or be denied, and which has affected the stock drug in hospitals, private hospitals as organizations service working around the clock, dealing with people's lives, and the fact that stock drug is Lifeline hospital and we find without Health Organization has stopped working somewhat, it was important to search for inventory control systems and their role in reducing dropout pharmaceuticals.The problem for research in the phenomenon of leakage of the drug from the Health Organization in several ways, which is a kind of theft, the importance of research stems from the importance of the activity of the Organization of health in society and in particular on the aspect of medical and humanitarian and economic reasons, as well as the importance of good efficient and effective system oversight and control of this stock activity in health, and a statement following a leak of medicine Health Organization to highlight the phenomenon of drug shortages and their impact on the health of citizens.Researcher concluded by searching a number of conclusions, most notably : The stores Pharmaceuticals in general is perhaps the less leakage of the medication, even though it contains more stocks therapy in the hospital. And some hospital staff at all levels of scientific and management are leaking medicine to outside health care. also gone out of the researcher's recommendations including : the need to work control regimes inventory and the introduction of modern technology (computer), and the introduction of workers in the stores cycles of modern techniques in the management of warehouses, and the need to have the senior management of the organization of health knowledge management side in addition to the medical address the phenomena of corruption and confusion that filled by some organizations of health.

علاقة الانماط السلوكية لشخصية المدير باتخاذ القرارات الادارية في المنظمات الصحية في دائرة مدينة الطب : دراسة تحليلية

Author name: خلود سليم حسن الحمداني

Supervisor name: عبد الرحمن الملا

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Hospital Management

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

تاثير الرؤية الستراتيجية في ضمان وتحسين جودة الرعاية الصحية المقدمة في المستشفيات المتخصصة : دراسة استطلاعية في مستشفى الجراحات التخصصية == The Effect Strategic Vision On Improvement Health Care Quality Provide By Assurance That Specialized Hospital Case Study In Specialized Surgical Hospital

Author name: خالدة سلمان سعد

Supervisor name: رغد محمد نجم الجبوري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Hospital Management

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

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سبل تطبيق نظام الحوكمة في مجلس محافظة ديالى == Ways of Implementing The Corporate Governance System In The Provincial Councils

Author name: خالد محمد امين العزاوي

Supervisor name: عبد الناصر علك حافظ

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Local Administration

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد تجربة مجالس المحافظات تجربة جديدة على مجتمعنا ولاسيما بعد التغييرات التي حصلت بعد 9 نيسان 2003 وما تبعه من تشكيل لهذه المجالس والتي تعد الممثل الحقيقي لابناء الوحدات المحلية والمحافظات من اجل تسهيل الاجراءات وتقديم الخدمات للمواطنين ولكن هذه التجربة ل | The experience of the provincial councils new experience on our society, especially after the changes that took place after April 9, 2003 and the subsequent formation of these councils, which are the true representative of the people of the local units and the provinces in order to facilitate the procedures and the provision of services to citizens, but this experience was not without some mistakes in the application and implementation and lack of the use of modern methods in the process of providing services and the adoption of the old traditional ways and constant routine, which was and still suffers from the citizen, so we tried in our research that shed light on these mistakes and what are the problems of the Diyala provincial council and what are the strengths and weaknesses enjoyed by the Council. The most important of these problems is the weakness of the administrative and organizational structure of these boards and the lack of interest in the application of corporate governance and its mechanisms, characteristics and importance in facilitating procedures and reduce red tape and speed in the completion of transactions, because the survival of the contemporary and modern themes (governance) without research and analysis of the survey will miss the opportunity on the provincial council to take advantage of legibility intellectual to improve and create boards or active and influential organizations and will continue their activities and their effectiveness is characterized by being routinely as would be unable to achieve adaptation and rapid response to the requirements of the data environment in which it operates in the framework of Diyala provincial council, as well as the lack of a clear strategy in the work of the Diyala provincial council in the medium and long term every direction changes surrounding it, as well as the limited attention of the Board of Directors of the need and the importance of the adoption of the application system of governance in all parts, and the people of the Council, and of the goals of this research is to stand on the most important administrative weaknesses and make proposals to strengthen and resolution as well as the proposal of a new organizational structure for the provincial council in line with corporate governance requirements and laws, the importance of the subject of governance, which is one of the most effective trends to evaluate and assess the performance, especially in light of establishing control system and smart follow - up to translate the performance criteria under which targets corporate governance, have been addressed in this research to some of the questions which you can apply the governance of the Diyala provincial council requirements? Is the advantage of the organizational structure of the provincial council complex or flexible? Does the possibility of the development of the Council's work in line with developments in the rake of government services to the people of the province are available? And that of the main conclusions reached by the researcher is, variation application governance requirements levels in accordance with the organizational level and the importance of function at the level of the Council, and that it is the most important application of governance begins devoutly Council administration in adopting the principles of corporate governance requirements, and help governance to determine the needs of the organization of the training and development of personnel programs workers in the Council, as well as help the governance councils to increase management's ability to control their employees, and strengthening the role of citizens is through communication with them and follow up on complaints about the Council's work, and that the most important proposals and recommendations included the need to increase attention to governance, tools and mechanisms and their targets because of their impact significantly to the success of the Council in its accomplishment, and the need for the Council to attract workers who have the scientific background to strong for the transfer of information and knowledge among all personnel in the Council, and adopt corporate governance requirements as to enhance the effective contribution of the citizens of the delivery of their opinion to the responsible parties in the province, and the longer these proposals the recommendations are very important reached by a researcher at the end of his research in order to enhance the work of the Diyala provincial council and development in order to provide better services to citizens and a record time

ابعاد الجودة في السيطرة على عدوى المستشفيات المكتسبة في عينة من المستشفيات العراقية

Author name: خالد كاظم عبد الامير

Supervisor name: سعد علي حمود عباس العنزي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Hospital Management

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

قياس مدى تلبية مخرجات الهيئة التمريضية لمتطلبات سوق العمل : بحث ميداني في كلية التمريض == Measure The Output of Nursing Staff To Meet The Requirements of The Labor Market (Field Research In Nursing College)

Author name: خالد حليم حسن الاعرجي

Supervisor name: صبيحة قاسم هاشم الاعرجي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Hospital Management

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد مهنة التمريض من المهن الطبية التي تحتل دورا مهما في مجتمع اليوم ويعد التمريض من العلوم والمهن التي ارتفع الاهتمام بها وبشكل مطرد في العالم الغربي حتى اصبح من الضروري مواكبة هذا التطور، كما ويشكل التطور الانتاجي وتحديث الخدمات الى زيادة الطلب على | The nursing profession is one of the medical profession, which occupies an important role in today's society and the science of nursing and professions that interest them, and rose steadily in the Western world until it became necessary to keep pace with this development, as a productive development and modernization of services to increase the demand for labor. The research aims to understand the relationship between the demand for nursing staffs and outputs of University College of Nursing. As well as understanding the relationship between the demand for health service staffs and the demand for nursing staffs, and provides a better understanding of the determinants of the demand for nursing staffs and those affecting the output of the Faculty of Nursing. The aging of the nursing staffing crisis causes a lack of staffing and the nursing shortage crisis, increasing the leaving is not registered or recognized and even in the case of compensation during the current lack of employment there is the problem of shortage of nursing faculty to teach these new educational programs through appropriate nursing. The resort of many countries after a certain periods of development in which to encourage the demand for a particular type of services and this applies to the health service embodied the demand for professional staff nursing and this is what tries to find proven by chapters of the four included in research starting from the first chapter, which includes a detailed methodology and previous studies, which indicate clearly poverty Arabic studies in this area while reflecting the amount of interest in the West and foreign universities in this field. The second chapter is a theoretical framework for the study and divided into two sections includes a first output College of Nursing in terms of the evolution and definition as well as the determinants and impact on the output while the register the second section the definition of the labor market nursing, which unfortunately lacks Iraq's most basic principles in the context of supply and demand employment, especially in relation to nursing staffs in order to adopt the Iraqi Health Ministry on the appointment of the central objection may reflect an implicit and an attempt to absorb the graduates of schools, institutes and colleges of nursing and also includes the topic and specific factors affecting the demand for nursing staffs. `The third chapter has dealt with methods of data collection and analysis based on the resolution of the stomach. Out Search a set of results such as lack of vision real with the students of the College of Nursing of the nature of the nursing profession applied also found that there are strategies reflect a shared vision between the reality of a basket of skill to fulfill the College of Nursing through training programs and teaching in it, which is a weakness in recognizing the nature of education and training in the College of Nursing, which should correspond to the needs of the labor market. this and that the labor market has a vision more clearly from the College of Nursing, which does not take into account the relationship between the staffs at their disposal and the increase in the plan acceptance, which leads us to the need to have a representative of the labor market in Board of the Faculty of Nursing and scientific departments contribute to the unification of visions and perceptions of the reality of acceptance and the necessary skills and quality of output and to build a College of Nursing vision and mission based on analysis of data from the external environment and what is involved in the opportunities and challenges of the factors of strength of its infrastructure and Mlakatha operating and technological capabilities.

Author name: حسن شناوة صالح

Supervisor name: كامل كاظم بشير الكناني

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Strategic Planning

Degree: Higher Diploma

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Business Administration

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تناول البحث اثر التوسع السكاني في مستوى تجهيز الطاقة الكهربائية وحصة الفرد الواحد منها.ولمعرفة هذا الاثر تم اختيار منطقة دراسة(المحلة 325في منطقة حي اور ) لتكون دراسة حالة في العاصمة بغداد في جانب الرصافة والتي تمتلك كثافة سكانية عالية.تم جمع بيانات اعدا | The research focuses on impact of Population expansion at the supplying power and Electric power per capita - in watt.this effect has been selected case study in Baghdad province, high Population density - Russafa Sector.Population Data sheet collected for period 1977 - 2015 depends on CSO - Central Statistical Organization - Iraq which implemented Population Census in 1977, 1987, 1997 &2009.Population Growth equation help researcher to know how many population will be next years. Unfortunately data was not available in detail about how many houses was in case study location.Another type of data sheet was collected that indicate how much watt was provided to study area, and the latter was not available in the standard unit that can I make conclusion and comparison, so it was necessary to make calculation to make data more clear to look and give indications.Google maps and photos was very necessary to know what demographics changes happened in study area. A 23% of study area lanes as spacemen have been studied to know the expansion in family houses during years from 1980 - 2013 , and that give indication about electric expansion depending on research Hypothesis that considered one family equal to one house so as to know the consumption.It was reached to the amount of energy deficit, which the MOE has to supply for the purpose of meeting the total demand for energy.For the purpose of giving value to the work methodology was revised strategic plan of the Ministry of Electricity Development Plan for the period (2010 - 2017) to see the possibility of achieving the desired goals based on the vision set.Finally the researcher put here some solutions as it deems appropriate and help solve the power crisis, depending on the growing demand affected by increasing population growth which based on research hypothesisIt was discussed in the last chapter to the conclusions and recommendations researcher believes its importance due to its high linked to research