Author name:
عامر عمران كاظم المعموري
Supervisor name:
ثائر محمود رشيد العاني | هناء عبد الحسين الطائي
Abstract:
In this study, the light had been shed on the relationship between of indicators stock market and business cycle in selected countries ,the study has been divided into three main chapters in order to test the validity of this hypothesis and achieving the aims of this study. The first one forms a conceptual and ideological of study and included three basic section. The second chapter dealt with Analyzing framework of study included two basic sections. While , chapter three has concentrated on the measure and analysis of the Feed back between stock market and business cycle. The study sample consist of six countries : USA, Mexico, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Egypt. It uses annual data covering the period (1983 - 2006).By using the Hsiao causality test has been used determine the direction of causality between indexes of stock market and business cycle.This study has yielded (concluded) many results from the theoretical and mathematical (econometric)First : "the conclusions of the theoretical aspect1 - Are the economies of industrialized countries over time, as with cases of depression and recovery, which affect to economic activity, and companies know that these conditions are strongly influenced by cycle companies, with sales booming with economic recovery and stagnation and decline in the shares of these companies know the stock prices rise as the periodic during the phase of prosperity and decline during the recession, the success of the investor depends on the type of the shares so to correct timing of the purchase 2 - The existence of a relationship and mutual influence between the work of primary and secondary markets, as the evolution and breadth of the work of the primary market leads to the development and expansion of the secondary market, through the development, diversification and expansion of new releases through the primary market, which offer the possibility of development and expansion of the secondary financial market activity, and using those issues later in their dealings, and in accordance with the clear understanding of this difficult chapter of the work and the development and expansion of these markets. 3 - financial derivatives is one of the most important features of modern financial developments during the last decade of the twentieth century, and these tools provide payments derived from other assets may be real or financial assets to cope with fluctuations and crises that have affected financial markets, which were used as tools to hedge against fluctuations in stock prices and rates interest and exchange rates. 4 - A shift in the characteristics of economic cycles, after the Second World War, becoming shorter courses "and less in terms of the duration of the decline in production or in terms of rates of deterioration in the indicators of economic activity and the disappearance of the global economic crisis as characterized by the unequal international distribution among countries capital, in addition to the lack of synchronization occur in those countries, but that this situation would be different during the eighties of the twentieth century and in the context of globalization has become the crisis overtaking the limits of all countries, whether developed or developing. 5 - The recurrence of financial crises and the breadth and speed of transition in the light of financial globalization is a controversial and attention to result in the damaging of a comprehensive and unexpected is not limited to the financial sector, but extends to other sectors and the effect of high economic costs have a negative effect not only in a crisis but extended beyond the borders to other countries. 6 - at the basis of the relationship between the performance indicators for the stock market situation of economic activity, the movement of stock prices is an important indicator to predict the economic cycle as they move in the opposite direction to the movement of bond prices, and up to the maximum level before the arrival of economic activity to the top of the recovery and up to lowest level before the arrival of economic activity to the bottom of the recession. 7 - The East Asian crisis occurred because of the big gap between the real sector and financial sector, which increased with the application of financial liberalization policies in the countries of East Asia, which has made the capital looking for a quick profit by speculating in the financial sector which has seen significant expansion and irresponsible, and take exercise role Parasitically hindering the process of economic growth, which has affected of the development the real economy and shot back, for the extent of the crisis and its spread from the center of the crisis (Thailand) It was during the economic vulnerability of financial markets and the integration of the global financial system. Through any channels of foreign trade and financial markets.8 - The degree of vulnerability of the Arab countries the financial crisis America is different from country to country, depending on the degree of economic openness and the degree of financial and economic development, countries are opening up the high and the Arab Gulf countries in particular will be more affected by and through the channels of oil and the dollar exchange rate stability. Second : the conclusions of the quantitative aspect 1 - The analysis showed that the standard linear model is the best expression of the models and the reality of the stock market in the United States. 2 - analysis showed that the standard non - linear model (Logarithm double) is the best model to reflect the reality of the stock market in each of the (Mexico, Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, Egypt) 3 - The results of the United States signs an agreement with the estimated parameters form the logic of economic theory in terms of a direct correlation between stock market indices and the state of economic activity, except the number of companies that have demonstrated an inverse relationship because of the merger that took place between listed companies in the market. 4 - show a causal bilateral Feed Back casualty between stock market indices and the economic cycle, there is no impact of the market shares of economic activity is economic activity towards the stock market, which confirms the existence of a significant impact to the stock market on economic activity in the United States, as these are the efficiency of the market high. causal bilateral Feed Back casualty between stock market indices and the economic cycle, there is no impact of the market shares of economic activity is economic activity towards the stock market, which confirms the existence of a significant impact to the stock market on economic activity in the United States, as these are the efficiency of the market high. 5 - it seems that there is a causal relationship bilateral Feed Back casualty During the time lag between the first indicators of the stock market (the market index, the turnover rate) and the state of economic activity (economic cycle) in Mexico, in the direction of the market value, volume and the number of companies to the economic activity of the stock market, when considering the case of economic activity as the dependent variable.With the direction of the relationship when the stock market indicators as dependent variable of the independent variable (the case of economic activity) to the stock market indices, except the market value.6 - The results of measurement in Thailand and a positive relationship between stock market indices and the state of economic activity (economic cycle), it was determined to test the causal relationship that the two - way and at the failure except for the first time the number of companies. 7 - shows the measurement results on Malaysia as in accordance with the logic of economic theory, which pointed to the existence of a relationship between the soft variables, and confirmed through the test of causation and the existence of feedback between the stock market and the state of economic activity.8 - The results of South Korea in line with the logic of economic theory, which revealed the presence of a direct correlation between the stock market and the state of economic activity (economic cycle), which was evident from the test of causation as the two - way, except the number of companies.
