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استخدام التصميم الامثل - D لتجارب القطاعات غير الكاملة المتزنة بنفس المعلمات == Using The D - Optimal Design For The Unbalanced Incomplete Block Design With The Same Parameters

Author name: غياث حميد مجيد

Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

بناء انموذج السيطرة على الخزين في ظل ضبابية الطلب وفترة الانتظار مع تطبيق عملي

Author name: غسق محمد عبد

Supervisor name: حامد سعد نور الشمرتي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: واضح ان موضوع السيطرة على المخزون له اهمية واهتمام من كثيرين لكونه يتميز بطابع الشمول, اذ تكاد تكون قائمة المخزون في الوقت الحالي لانهائية , وكذلك تواجه اي ادارة او مؤسسة صعوبات في اتخاذ القرار لتحديد كمية المخزون وذلك لكي تحقق توازنا بين كلفة المخزون وا | It is clear that the subject of the control of the inventory has to be attached and the interest of many, because it is characterized by inclusiveness,as are almost infinite inventory, and also facing any administration or difficulties foundation in decision - making to determine the amount of inventory in order to achieve a balance between the cost of inventory and keep it in exchange for the cost of disabling the plant or the cost of the loss of profit due to the loss of the goods required by the cusomers , not to mention when he discovers the environment under study fuzzy because of the accuracy of the data or similarity somewhat or change continuously.It has been in this letter build a mathematical model using linear programming misty figures fuzzy function trigonometric tracking three products (oil, White, jet fuel, grease) and for quarterly and one year (2014) was to address motion blur using the method of integrative representation of the average gradient and then solving the specimen through direct compensation the cost of production and actual inventories in the goal of the specimen proposed and to find the total cost and compare it with the cost of winning the college from the specimen after being admitted as a model linear programming in turnkey program (WIN QSB) function turned out that the total extracted cost by less than the actual total cost of the program and this Matsay him company, which reduce costs or at least achieve a balance between the cost of inventory and keep it in exchange for the cost of disabling the plant or the cost of the loss by the loss of material in the case of demand

تطبيق اساليب الخوارزميات الجينية ومقارنته مع اساليب البرمجة الخطية الضبابية : دراسة تطبيقية == Application of Genetic Algorithms & Comparing With Fuzzy Linear Programming \Applied Study

Author name: غسان عدنان محمود الزبيدي

Supervisor name: عبد الرحمن حامد الحسيني

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

دراسة مقارنة لبعض اساليب الحل الاساسي لنماذج النقل == A Comparative Study To Some Methods of Basic Solution of Transportation Models

Author name: عمار محمد صالح عبد الرحيم

Supervisor name: عبد اللطيف حسن شومان

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد مشكلة النقل من المشكلات الاساسية التي تعالجها البرمجة الخطية وتحليل هذه المشكلات له اهمية كبيرة في اختزال التكاليف العالية للنقل وكذلك اختزال الوقت والجهد اللازم لذلك. وتعتمد عملية التحليل بصورة اساسية على ايجاد حل اساسي ابتدائي مقبول (Starting Basic | Transportation problem is one of the basic subjects that are quired by liner programming and the process of analyzing the transportation problems has great importance to reduce the high cost of transportation and the time and effort needed to submit. the analyzing process basically depends on finding a fundamental solution Elementary acceptable (Starting Basic Feasible Solution), to be the firm ground to proceed to another solutions until we reach the optimal solution, which represents the true measure of process Decision making.However (Starting Basic Feasible Solution), is better (cheaper) the number of iterations that required to reach the best solution will be less. therefore in this study we have to review the traditional ways of finding a fundamental solution which is (row Minimum, Modified row Minimum, column Minimum, Modified column Minimum, the north West corner, least cost, Russell's approximation method, and Vogel's approximation method). In addition to review four new methods two of them are published (Zidan's method and average method). and the other two methods are founded by the researcher as a result of his search & study (the first and second suggested method SM.1 and SM.2).to know the efficiency of these methods we should be tested, therefore we will use the simulation in trial side of the research to generate (100) of random transportation problems and solve it by the above methods for a comparison between these methods depending on the results that we gain from solutions. Based on the results of the comparison relied on the method that gave the best results in finding Basic Solution to be used in the application side of research, which is the process of constructing three transportation models to transfer of the distribution network for petroleum products, white available in stores alkhoznip and refineries (processing centers) to be distributed to counties of Iraq (demand centers) by tanker trucks (tankers) and put this models in a transportation schedules to solve it by the beast basic method and to be improved until we reach the optimally

ايجاد التوزيع الاحتمالي للطلب خلال فترة الانتظار للمواد المخزنية في شركة تعبئة الغاز == Finding The Probability Distribution of Lead Time Demand For The Inventory Items In Gas Filling Company

Author name: علي هشام عبد الرسول السعدي

Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعد ايجاد التوزيع الاحتمالي للطلب خلال فترة الانتظار من اهم واعقد المشاكل التي تواجه العاملين في مجال السيطرة على الخزين وذلك عندما يكون الطلب او فترة الانتظار او كلاهما متغيرا وبشكل خاص عندما تكون فترة الانتظار طويلة.غالبا ما تستخدم توزيعات ثنائية | Probability distribution for lead time demand is considered the most important and complex problem that is faced by those who work in inventory control when demand or lead time or both of them are not fixed specially when the lead time is long.In common two parameters distributions are used to represent lead time demand, for example Gamma distribution and lognormal distribution. Although these distributions are some what flexible in representing this variable (i.e. lead time demand), it does not cover all cases.Thus, three parameters distributions are used in addition to that two parameters distributions to represent lead time demand. These three parameters distribution are more flexible and take different forms, consequently they are more compatible to cover more cases.This study consists of four chapters; the first one is a historical review and previous studies of some researchers who worked in probabilistic models for inventory control. The second chapter is a theoretical part that discusses some important conceptions which are used in inventory control and display the most important specification and characteristics of some important distributions to represents demand, lead times and lead time demand, that is the later is the most important to compute different inventory measures, which is limited on re - order level and protection level in this thesis. In addition it shows estimation of distributions parameters by using moment method and Maximum likelihood.The third chapter is the experimental part which tackles the analysis of actual monthly data and lead times data measured by month to find best probability distribution to these data. Then, mix demand data with lead time data. Thus, we get demand data during lead time. These data are tested to get probability distribution which represents them. This distribution depends on computing re - order level in specific protection levels.The forth chapter discusses the most important conclusions of this thesis and recommendations are suggested to the future studies.Further to that, the thesis contains a programs in Pascal language to get use of it to generate lead time demand data, and to test goodness of fit of data and computing re - order level according to lead time demand distributions.

مقدرات طريقة بيز وبعض الطرائق التقليدية شبه المعلمية لتقدير دالة الانحدار اللوجستي في ظل البيانات المفقودة == Bayesian Method Estimates And Some Semiparametric Regular Estimating Methods For Estimating The Logistic Regression With Missing Data

Author name: علي محمد علي جيجان الخفاجي

Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يلقى موضوع تحليل النماذج شبة المعلمية والذي يدمج النماذج المعلمية والنماذج اللامعلمية اهتماما واضحا في معظم الدراسات والتي تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة , في بعض الدراسات | Semi - parametric models analysis is one of the most interesting subjects in recent studies because of the precise way it describes the statistical databy giving efficient parameters. In some studies the response variable takes two values, either zero - no response - or one - response - which is called the logistic regression model. And the observations of this model may suffer from missingness and that is when the objective of the study comes.In this thesis the researcher studied some of the methods of estimating missing observations if the missingness is in the parametric variables or in the nonparametric variables. When the missingness was in the parametric variable two methods has been used, which are the Unconditional Mean (UCM) and the KBNS methods. And when the missingness was in the nonparametric variable two methods has been used which are Unconditional Mean (UCM) and Conditional Mean (CM) methods.After completing the observations the methods ofestimating the parameters in Semi - parametric modelswere used to estimate the parameters and these methods were (NW) and (CLLE) and the Bayesian method. Then the results were compared using MSe criteria.A simulation study had been made to compare different sample sizes, variances and missingness ratios by using the MSequality criteria. And the most important conclusions were, in the parametric variable the methods gave close results while the nonparametric variable methods gave different results according to the sample sizes and the variances.Then the best methods in the simulation study with sample size 90 and variance 0.2 were applied on the heart failure disease because the real data sample size was 92 with variance 0.23 and (CLLE) method gave the best result.

خوارزمية مقترحة لتعظيم معولية النظام عن طريق تحديد عدد من المركبات الاحتياطية مع تطبيق عملي في الشركة العامة لصناعة البطاريات

Author name: علي محسن عيسى الياسري

Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

مقارنة بين اسلوب بيز وطريقة الامكان الاعظم لتقدير دالة المعولية للنظام المتسلسل والنظام المتوازي مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparison Between Bayes Approach And Maximum Likelihood Method To Estimate Reliability Function For Series System And Parallel System With Application

Author name: علي حميد يوسف السراي

Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: نتيجة لتطور التقنية العالية والمنافسة الشديدة في القطاع الصناعي فان دراسة المعولية كانت الموضوع لدى الخبراء الاحصائيين بالاضافة الى مهندسو المعولية، لما لها من جانب كبير من الاهمية في حياتنا العملية، وحيث ان معرفة حالات عطل او فشل الانظمة شانه تقليل كلفة | In the theoretical part of this thesis, estimators of reliability function were derived for (series system) and estimators of reliability function for (Parallel system) as well as assumption that the life times of the components form every system is independent and is distributed into exponential distribution with different ` and independent parameters it can be shown as : First : Maximum Likelihood Estimator Second : Bayes Estimator By using squared error loss function and suggested loss function with taking into consideration finding common Prior probability function for random parameters according to researcher Jeffry also density Prior probability that is natural Conjugate that was not discussed in the references of the subject matter of the research. It is very important to refer that the derivation of Bayes estimators to reliability of parallel system were done by the researcher himself for the derivation could not be found in the references of the research which the researcher consulted for making comparison between the suitability of the estimations Monte Carlo stimulation style was used with two statistic measures (MSE) and(MAPE) for determination of the suitable estimator it is concluded that Best estimator by using suggested loss function and Prior density probability function natural Conjugate and so Best estimator using suggested loss function and non informative Prior probability Function.Finally in the practical part of the thesis the results of the theoretical part are wed to estimate reliability of Series System and parallel system in the AL - Kut Texture Factory which is belongs to the general company of texture industry is Wassit

استعمال طريقتي انحدار الحرف والمركبات الرئيسية في تقدير معلمات انموذج اللوجستك في حالة وجود مشكلة التعدد الخطي مع تطبيق عملي == Use The Methods of Ridge Regression And Principle Components To Estimate The Parameters of Logistic Model Under Multicollinearity With Practical Application

Author name: علي حسين فلوح

Supervisor name: سهيل نجم عبود

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان اكثر الدراسات في انموذج انحدار اللوجستيك تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يمكن من خلاله الحصول على مقدرات عالية الكفاءة.ان مشكلة التعدد الخطي يمكن ان تظهر في انموذج درجة الميل (Propensity Score Model) عند تقدير متوسط تاثير | More studies on the topic of logistics regression model takes a more advanced in the process of careful statistical analysis which aims to get estimators with a high level of efficiency.The problem of Multicollinearity can appear in the model of propensity scores (PS) when estimating the average treatment effects (ATEs). In this thesis, using the methods of logistic ridge regression, logistic principle components regression an alternative to the maximum likelihood estimates in the propensity scores model. The average treatment effects (ATEs) estimators adopted the method of inverse probability weighted (IPW). logistic ridge regression (LRR), principle components logistical regression (PCLR), and maximum likelihood (ML) used to estimate the propensity scores (PS), The logistics regression model and the variable (W_i) and the Bernoulli distribution in depended variables then probability (?_i) and then estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs), where the use of simulations (Monte Carlo) to generate tracking data model of logistic regression and Multicollinearity problem depending on various factors, from simple correlation coefficient values and sample size and the number of independent variables and the constant value plus the adoption of different designs of propensity score in simulation study, this is due to the fact that estimates the average treatment effects (ATEs) her strengths and different accounts. And we use Bias and the mean squares error (MSE) as criteria for comparing methods of estimation.The results that have been obtained using a simulation study indicates that the Bias and the mean square error (MSE) depend on the sample size and the degree of the correlation as well as the design propensity score model. I have observed that the estimation method of logistic ridge regression (LRR) and principle component logistic regression (PCLR) was the best of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE).In addition to the simulation study, has been applied method of logistic ridge regression (depending on(2 - 16)) on the data of the fact disease, kidney failure, which was obtained from the (Al_Emamyn city hospital) for different models to estimate the propensity scores and then estimate average treatment effect (ATE).

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمات الهيكلية لمنظومة المعادلات الانية الخطية في القياس الاقتصادي مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Some Methods of Estimating The Structural Parameters of The Linear Simultaneous Equations System In Econometrics With A Practical Application

Author name: علاء حسين صبري

Supervisor name: ايمان محمد عبد الله المشهداني

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية لاختبارات عدم تجانس التباين مع تطبيق عملي == Methods Parametric And Nonparametric Tests For Heterogeneity of Variance With Practical Application

Author name: علا هادي صادق الوائلي

Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تم في هذه الرسالة دراسة بعض من طرائق اختبارات تجانس التباين المعلمية والاختبارات اللامعلمية والمقارنة فيما بينهم في ظل انتهاك واحد او اكثر من الافتراضات الاساسية لتحليل التباين اذ تم استعمال الطرائق المعلمية الخاصة باختبارات تجانس التباين مثل (اختباركوكرا | Been in this Search the study of some of the methods of the homogeneity of variance parametric tests and nonparametric tests as well as the comparison among them under one or more violation of the basic assumptions for analysing the variance, by using the methods of parametric tests which they especialist to the homogeneity of variance such as ( Cochran test , Hartley test, Bartlett test, Levene test, Fisher test) and by using the nonparametric tests which they were expected to be more reliable in the case of one or more violation that related to the special analysis of variance assumptions such as (Ansari - Bradly test, Mood test, Klotz test, test Seigel - Tukey) as the comparison was done among the tests above are based on the possibility of The type I error, as well as relying on standard power of the test. The comparison was made between the estimation methods parametric and nonparametric using simulations and by generating symmetric distributions such as the normal distribution and the uniform distribution and nonsymmetric distributions (twisted) such as the gama distribution. Has been reached in this search that Cochran test may superiority the rest of the tests parametric based on the type I error and power of the test was followed by tests (Hartley test, Bartlett test, Fisher test , Levene test), as for nonparametric tests the Ansari - Bradley test has superiority the rest of the nonparametric tests based on the type I error and power of the test then followed by standard tests (Mood test , Klotz test , seigel - Tukey test). The search also included a practical application of the data taken from the Medical College of Technology of the University of Baghdad for all stages and all sections to calculate body mass (bmi)

حل مشكلة النقل في ظل قيود ميزانية الشركة مع تطبيق عملي == To Solve The Transportation Problem In Light of The Company'S Budget Restrictions With Practical Application

Author name: عفراء عباس حمادة

Supervisor name: سميرة خليل ابراهيم

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعتبر مشكلة النقل احد الاساليب الرياضية المهمة التي تساهم في عملية اتخاذ القرار المناسب في نقل السلع من مصدر انتاجها او تجهيزها الى مراكز طلبها المتعددة باقل التكاليف الممكنة, وضمن حدود العرض والطلب في كافة المنشات الصناعية, الاقتصادية والانتاجية. وفي ه | The problem of transportation is one of the important sports methods that contribute to the decision - making process in the transfer of goods from the source of production or processing to the centers of multiple demand at the lowest possible costs, and within the supply and demand in all industrial, economic and productivity. In this thesis, a model was presented for the problem of unbalanced transportation within budget constraints and demand for specific periods with a lower limit and an upper limit. This model was solved using the Interval point method to find the optimal solution to the problem of transportation with budgetary constraints. Which contributed to the selection of suitable solution for administrative and economic decision makers according to their potential and financial availability, as well as the use of the zero - point method to solve the linear model of the problem of transportation proved to be efficient and easy to apply. The simplex programming method was used to solve the transportation problem For. This method has proven to transportation larger volumes and lower transportation costs for Lower and Upper demand but exceeded the budget allocated by the company to transportation the product. The total transportation cost of the black oil (fuel oil) in the way of the Interval point method to the lower limit (187700000) and the cost of the upper limit (247600000) and did not exceed the budget allocated for transportation from the company (225500000), but reduced the cost of transportation to (22557808) (9,705.47) tons. The general linear programming method (Simplex) was the lower limit cost (180280000) and the cost of the upper limit (240000000) and the total cost of transportation was (233097.76) exceeded the budget allocated for transport by the company by (7597.76) and quantities transferred (10004.09) tons.

حساسية نموذج مباراة تفاضلية == The Sensitivity of Diffential Game Model

Author name: عايدة زاوين ارشاكيان

Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | لميعة باقر جواد الجواد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

استخدام مرشح الموجة الصغيرة المتقطعة في تحليل السلسلة الزمنية AR (1) ومقارنته مع مرشحات اخرى == Using Discrete Wavelets Filter In Analysis of Time Series AR(1) And Comparison With Other Filters

Author name: طه حسين علي الزبيدي

Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تم في هذه الاطروحة معالجة مشكلة الضوضاء (او التلوث) الذي يمكن ان تتعرض له مشاهدات السلسلة الزمنية باستخدام مرشحات الموجة الصغيرة والاعتماد على تحليل المعلومات من خلال التردد فضلا عن الزمن مقارنة مع تحليل فورير الذي يحلل المعلومات عن طريق التردد فقط مهم | This Thesis deals with the problem of Noise (or Contamination) which may encounter the time series data using Wavelet Filters and depending on the information analysis through the frequency in addition to the time compared to Fourier Analysis which analyze the information through the frequency only omitting the time factor, this was performed through the use of Discrete Wavelet Transformation as a filter to clean the data from the contamination or the noise factors by direct or with some kinds Thresholding , and then Estimate the First - order Autoregressive Model for the filtered time series observations and compare the results with what results from the use of time series observations that are contaminated and filtered by using Wiener and Kalman filters depending on some statistical Criterias, which are The Mean Square Prediction Error, Final Prediction Error, and The Mean Absolute Prediction Error.This study presents the suggested method as well, that depends on the Wavelet as Input for The Artificial Neural Network, and then use the outputs of this Network to Estimate The First - order Autoregressive Model to the time series observations that are filtered, and compare the results with the Classical Method - Neural Network, Haar Wavelet, and Daubechies Filters of the directs from second order and which used with Soft, Mid, and Hard Thresholding by depending on the statistical Criterias given before through using the simulation experiments in addition to use real data represents time series observations of sunspots, and in order to perform this analysis the researcher designed the required computer codes by using MATLAB Language.

مقارنة بعض الطرائق الحصينة في تحليل الارتباط القويم الخطي باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Robust Methods In Linear Canonical Correlation Analysis of Simulation Used With Practical Application

Author name: طارق عزيز صالح

Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تبرز اهمية الحاجة الى طرائق تقدير كفء والتي تسمى بالطرائق الحصينة (Robust Methods) عندما تكون بيانات الظاهرة المدروسة ملوثة، او وجود شواذ في المشاهدات، والتي ينتج بسببها مقدرات تؤدي الى زيادة او نقصان في متوسط مربعات الخطا (MSE) مما يؤدي الى استدلال احص | The important of the necessity to my efficient estimation methods, which are called the robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated, it means the observations contains outliers,which may produce estimators which result in increasing (decreasing) in the (MSE), That would leads to an inaccurate statistical inference. From this point was the good behind this research in reaching robust estimators of canonical correlation analysis that can be achieved through the study of some robust methods such as (estimators - M, estimators - MVE, estimators - MCD and estimators - S).for the failure of the classical methods of estimation of canonical correlation analysis at containing data on the ratio contamination (outliers), that leads to the derivation of incorrect covariance matrix consequently to correlation matrix and a series of relations between the incorrect variables. Therefore the robust methods were used in the calculate of covariance matrix which would lead to robust matrices to robust canonical correlation analysis.In order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was divided into four chapters.The first chapter included the introduction, purpose of search and review of literature, the second chapter tackled the theoretical aspect of the robust methods in canonical correlation analysis as well as some of the important concepts, the third chapters deals with the application aspect in which tow types of applied studies were made, The first one uses the simulation method to compare among the studied methods of estimation in canonical correlation analysis and detect the best of the estimator depending on the two statistical measurements bias mean and mean square error which renders the minimum MSE of canonical correlation analysis, the second study uses the truthful data to verity the performance in a practical actuality.Finally, the fourth chapter included the conclusion, recommendations to which the researcher has arrived. In general it is regarded that MCD estimator is the best in the estimation of canonical correlation analysis in comparison with the other studied methods of estimation.

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة والمعولية لانموذج ريلي للفشل لبيانات تامة وبيانات تحت المراقبة من النوع الاول باستخدام المحاكاة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods of Parameter And Reliability of Rayleigh Failure Model For A Complete Data And Type One Censored Data By Using Simulation

Author name: صبا صباح احمد الجميلي

Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعرض الكثير من الباحثين الى انموذج ويبل للفشل (Weibull Failure Model) وتطبيقاته المختلفة كونه احد نماذج الفشل الشائعة الى جانب اهميته في حقل المعولية واختبارات الحياة. فـي هـذا البحث تـم تقديـر معلمــة القياس ودالـة المعوليـة لانموذج ريلـي للفشـل (Rayle | Weibull Failure Model and its different applications have been studied by many researchers, since it is one of the well known failure models in addition to its importance in the reliability field and life tests.This research estimated the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh Failure Model, which is one of the well known failure model in the reliability field and life tests and the signal analysis.The research focused on the comparison between some of the well known estimation methods (classical and Bayesian) for the scale parameter and reliability function of this model by using the Maximum likelihood, Moments, White and Standard Bayes estimation methods.The methodology of the research depends on theoretical study, the methods of classical and Bayesian estimation has been determined elaborately to arrive to the estimations forms of reliability.Also this research depends on an experimental study by designing number of simulation experiments using various values of parameters and sample sizes, this experiment replicated to get high homogeny for the comparison among the estimation methods.Two kinds of data are used in the research : 1 - Complete Data.2 - Time - Censored Data. The researcher suggested two Bayesian methods for estimation in case of complete data; the first is a loss function obtained by compressing the well known square loss function which called it (The Compressed Bayes Method), and the second is a prior function which is called (The Developed Bayes Method). The comparison between the two proposed methods is done to show the effect of Bayesian estimator, then a comparison done between the best proposed methods with the best well known methods to show which estimator is the more accurate to be used for estimation the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh failure model.The results of these experiments show that White method is the best from the other methods which are used in this research in estimating the scale parameter and reliability function, and the results show that the proposed Compressed Bayes method is better than the Standard Bayes and the Maximum Likelihood methods, while the proposed Developed Bayes method verified that it is better than the Moment method in estimating the scale parameter and the reliability function; and better than the Maximum Likelihood estimation method in estimating the reliability function, and using any of the proposed methods (Compressed Bayes, Developed Bayes) is better than the Standard Bayes method. In case of censored data the simulation experiments proved that the Maximum Likelihood estimation method is better than the Standard Bayes estimation method. A comparison of preference estimation methods is done by using the two standards; Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

مقدرات الامكان الاعظم الموزونة الحصينة ومقارنتها مع طرائق اخرى لانموذج اللوجستك مع تطبيق عملي == Robust Weighted Maximum Likelihood Estimates And Their Comparsion With Other Methods of Logistic Model With Practical Application

Author name: شرين علي حسين

Supervisor name: نزار مصطفى جواد الصراف

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان معظم الدراسات في موضوع انموذج انحدار اللوجستك تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. وتاتي اهمية الحاجة الى تطبيق الطرائق الحصينة عندما تكون بيانات الظاهرة المدروسة ملوثة , | In most of studies about the logistic regression model take in it's nature more progness in the procedure of acurate statistical analysis which aim getting estimators of a high level of efficiency , and importance of it's necessity to applicate of the robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated , it means some of the observations vareit clearly from other observations called outliers which may produce estimators untrustworthy and so the decision will be false about the problem that we are trying to study it.From this point was the goal of this research in reaching robust estimators to estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model through study some of theis estimators (method (WMLE) , method( M ) and method (Lp) ) and that by supposing three levels of contamination (0%,10%,30%). Also we use simulation in this study to compete between methods of studied estimator for all levels of the contaminated studies.In this thesis the researcher concluded the success of the method (WMLE (w1)) in estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model, in comparsion with studied estimate methods by depending on statistical measures : Bias, Mean Square Error for parameters and model.Also the researcher specified a chapter for applying and using method WMLE (w1) on real data of angina pectoris patients which taking from Ibn - al - Nafees hospital for the purpose of estimate parameters of binary logistic regression model.

استعمال المجموعات الضبابية ونماذج بوكس جينكنز في السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ ببعض نسب التلوث في مياه الشرب لمدينة بغداد == Using The Fuzzy Sets And Box - Jenkins Models In Time Series To Prediction Some Rates of Pollution In Baghdad City

Author name: سيف عدنان سلمان

Supervisor name: احلام احمد جمعة

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

توظيف الخوارزمية الوراثية في انشاء تصاميم القطاعات غير الكاملة المتزنة == Construction of Balanced Incomplete Blocks Design (B.I.B.D.) By Using Genetic Algorithms (G.A.)

Author name: سهام دنخا خوشابا

Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

مقارنة بعض اختبارات ملاءمة نماذج السلاسل الزمنية ذات الرتب الدنيا باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison of Some Diagnostic Checking Tests For Time Series Models With Low Order By Using Simulation

Author name: سهاد احمد احمد

Supervisor name: احلام احمد جمعة

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان دراسة السلسلة الزمنية تتطلب دقة في وصف ملامح الظاهرة (العملية) التي تتولد منها، سواء من حيث تفسير طبيعة تلك الظاهرة وسلوكها واستخدام النتائج للتنبوء بسلوكها في المستقبل اخذين بنظرالعناية التحقق عما يمكن حدوثه عند تغيير بعض معلمات الانموذج. ويمكن استخ | Studying time series requires an accurate description for the features of phenomena (procedure) that generates time series according to its nature and behavior interpretation. After that, we can use these results for forecasting to the future taking under consideration : examine to what would happen after changing some of the model parameters, use the standard (depended) methods for testing the accuracy of the identified model which has ability for taking errors in the procedure, and provide balancing condition between model diagnosing and simplicity as well as. This research aims to use some of tests concern with diagnosing of the identified model, and make comparisons among these tests meanwhile. The researcher took some of tests, especially, the modern ones, represented by Dm test which depends on partial autocorrelation function, and which depends on autocorrelation function. We use ARMA models with lower order : [AR (1), MA (1), ARMA (1,1)] that Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we use the tests concern with linear hypothesis diagnosing for the previous three models, represented by squaring the model errors. We use also, the modified tests in this field. In addition, we use some of nonlinear models, as "Threshold" model, and taking self - exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) as a special case. The analysis of time series considered time range under model stationary. Methodology of the research depends on both the theoretical part (Statistical theory usage), and the empirical part (Simulation). The structure of the research has mainly based on four chapters as follow : chapter ONE, consists an introduction, the goal of the research and the historical literature. While chapter TWO, covers the statistical methods that take part describing and modeling the time series, as well as explain the main concepts of time series such as "Stationary". We show also, the "mixed" model with lower order, crossing to examining the diagnosing through some of the standard and modern tests which depends on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the standardized residual series that obtained from the original series of the model, by testing the randomization of the model errors and make checking for its convenience and accuracy. Furthermore, we use the modified tests : ( , , )and (Kwan & Sim) test represented by ( , , ) to determine the linear hypothesis diagnosing by compute the standardized residual series squares of the error in the previous three models that mentioned above. We use nonlinear model (SETAR) as well as. Chapter THREE, devoted for the empirical part which contains illustrations to all of what mentioned in chapter two. The researcher has designed some of experiments for purpose of comparing the (standard, modern and modified) tests through computing (P - value) for each model at (0.01) significant level at many simulated parameters, with different sample sizes, and for a number of periods of lags at each sample size, by replicating the experiment (1000) times. Finally, chapter FOUR comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the researcher had recommended

دراسة احصائية لوفيات الاطفال الرضع لمحافظة نينوى للفترة 1987 - 2004

Author name: سما سعدي علي الهاشمي

Supervisor name: عبد الحسين زيني

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

الارتباط القويم والشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية : دراسة تطبيقية == Canonical Correlation And Artificial Neural Network (Application Study)

Author name: سليمة حمادي جاسم

Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي | عدنان شهاب حمد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Operations Research

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

اشتراك توزيعي ويبل وتكوين توزيع الباي ويبل == The Participation of Two Weibull Distributions And The Formation of Bi - Weibull Distribution

Author name: سلام جاسم محمد الساعدي

Supervisor name: علي عبد الحسين صالح الوكيل

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية باعتباره علما يتعامل مع اعمار المعدات ولاسيما احتمالات البقاء ومتوسط الحياة وهذا يعود بالاساس الى التطور التكنولوجي السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات. وعلى هذا الاساس فان در | The wide increasing concern of studying the topic of reliability as a science dealing with equipment ages, especially the survival and life average probabilities rendered to the fast technological development and the utility of complicated electronic systems in various fields. On that basis, the studying the topic of reliability and the connection between the theoretical and applied sides together have a great importance because they are considered the indicator towards stating the extent of efficiency and capacity of the machine and the work system without damages for a long period of time, accordingly, the study of (Weibull Distribution) is a sample of failure functions because this distribution is suitable when failure rates are high relatively at the operating start, then these rates decrease gradually with time increase. Accordingly, the thesis includes mainly a display of a new sample of joint distributions which is known as (Bi - Weibull). This kind of distribution gives more elasticity and more accurate results.Hence, the basic statistical measures and the parameter estimation of (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) were found through (MLE) by using the simulation method (Inverse Formula). In order to reach the research aim, the research is divided into five chapters. Chapter one deals with the topic general backgrounds and function definition including the reliability function. Whereas chapter two is dedicated to expose the methods of estimating the parameters of the (2 - Parameter Weibull Distribution) with displaying the basic statistical measures of (2 and 3 - Parameter Weibull Distributions). As to chapter three, it includes the theoretical side of (Bi - Weibull Distribution) with the exposure of the following three states of this distribution : - (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (5 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (6 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) with their basic statistical measures.Chapter four manifests the research programs and simulation results as well as result analysis. Chapter five includes the conclusions and recommendations the researcher has arrived at

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة التمهيدية لدوال اللب متعدد المتغيرات وتوظيفها في الدوال التمييزية مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Smoothing of Estimate Methods For Multivariate Kernel Functions And Employs Them In Discriminants Functions With Practical Application

Author name: سكينة شامل جاسم

Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان التحليل التمييزي (Discriminant Analysis ) غالبا ما يعاني من مشكلة صغر حجم العينة ( SSS ) Small Simple Size خاصة عندما يتم تطبيقها لتصنيف انماط عالية الابعاد مثل (التعرف على الوجه، حركة اليد وحركة الجينات الوراثية و...)، او عندما تكون البيانات لديها | The linear discriminant analysis often suffer from small sample size (sss) problem.especially when they are applied for the classification of high_dimenssional patterns. Such as (face recognition) or when data is distributed normal distribution but when they are non _ linear and has spread widely. We are dealing with this problem by using a technique of kernel discriminant analysis. because this technique depends on the kernel density estimation which belong to the class of estimates. it is commonly perform Avery important technique for visualizing data distribution and smoothing. It is unimportant to procedure in the explanatory data analysis, as that used in kernel discriminate analysis well known by researchers. To identify statistical. patterns. it is also known that these estimates are. Based mainly on the choice of bandwidth parameter end controlled on smoothing of estimation and to choice kernel function. has been the use of carton methods to estimate band width parameter it is : plugin methad Least square Cross validation method Smoothed Cross validation method Are selected as a parameter of bandwidth and use in kernel density estimation (KDE( and then employ them in kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) approach. Through the joint base for groups is a kernel discriminant rule (KDR) which rely heavily on density classified (f ?_j) and probability of prior (? ?_j).therefore the problem of multiple class(The use of several variables) will be more important and visible to be parameter of bandwidth is different when compared with various densities classified. Finally, it was real data from the general blood cancer disease and style simulation application, as it was reached that way (KDA - SCV) is best when using the above standard compared with other methods because it gave the misclassification rate least.in the practical side results showed in such a way that nine people were the first (n1... n9) of the first group are infected with disease among 50 people is infected and 12 people from the second group infected with the Lisu people living with and they (n45... n50 and n1... n6 ).

مقارنة بعض الطرائق اللبية في تقدير نماذج الانحدار اللامعلمي بوجود بيانات تامة وغير تامة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods For Kernel Models In Complete And Incomplete Data

Author name: سعد كاظم حمزة

Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | مناف يوسف

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان استخدام النماذج المعلمية يتطلب العديد من الشروط الاولية التي يجب توافرها لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثون الى البحث عن نماذج اقل صرامة من النماذج المعلمية وتمثلت هذه النماذج بالنماذج ال | Using of parametric models require a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models. One of nonparametric methods important for estimating nonparametric regression function known as (kernel estimation) to be used for estimating any statistical function which is (smooth estimator) free of disorders modifying the observations and approximating estimated regression function to real nonparametric regression function. Hence, the researcher showed some kernel methods to estimate the nonparametric regression function in both cases complete data (FNW, FLLS, VNW, VLLS) and incomplete data (FSNW, VSNW, FINW, VINW, FSLLS, VSLLS, FILLS, VILLS) and compared them through the simulation method as well as using different models and different sizes of samples and variants. From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best smoother was (FLLS) by using the first model, while by using the second model, it was shown that the best smoother was (VLLS) and in the third model was (VNW). In case of incomplete data, the best smoother was (VSLLS) by using the first and second models while by using the third model, the best smoother was (VSNW)