البحث — المستودع الرقمي العراقي

نتائج البحث: 25 من أصل 55

التنبؤ بكميات الانتاج لمحصول القمح في العراق باستعمال السلاسل الزمنية للفترة من 1970 - 2014 Forecasting Production Quantities of wheat crop in Iraq for the Period from 1980 - 2014

اسم المؤلف: وليد خالد عباس

اسم المشرف: بيداء اسماعيل عبد الوهاب

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

بعض الطرائق شبه المعلميه في تقدير واختيار المتغير لانموذج المؤشر الواحد Some of the semi - parametric methods to estimate and variable selection for single index model

اسم المؤلف: طارق عزيز صالح شهاب

اسم المشرف: مناف يوسف حمود

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: دكتوراه

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

استعمال السلاسل الزمنية في التنبؤ بكمية النفايات الصلبة لمحافظة بغداد والمردود الاقتصادي لها للمدة من 2006 - 2015 The use time series in predicting of solid Waste in Baghdad and its economical income for 2015 - 2006

اسم المؤلف: سلمان احمد محمد الجبوري

اسم المشرف: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

العوامل الاقتصادية والاجتماعية المؤثرة في الهجرة الداخلية في العراق Economic and social factors affecting the internal migration in Iraq

اسم المؤلف: رقية توفيق عبد الستار

اسم المشرف: ايمان محمد عبد الله

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

تخطيط الانتاج الاجمالي الضبابي باستعمال البرمجة الهدفية الضبابية مع تطبيق عملي Fuzzy aggregate production planning by using Fuzzy goal programming with practical application

اسم المؤلف: رشا ضاري كامل

اسم المشرف: عبد الجبار خضر بخيت

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: بحوث العمليات

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

بناء افضل انموذج صندوق اسود باستعمال بعض الطرائق المعلمية مع تطبيق عملي Build a better model black box using some parametric methods with practical application

اسم المؤلف: انمار رسول شعيث العقابي

اسم المشرف: احلام احمد جمعة

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

استعمال بعض الطرائق اللامعلمية في تقدير نموذج الانحدار الذاتي اللاخطي بوجود متغير خارجي مع تطبيق عملي Using Some Nonparametric Methods For Estimation of Nonlinear Autoregressive Model With Exogenous Variables With Application

اسم المؤلف: علي سلمان حبیب

اسم المشرف: فراس احمد محمد

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: دكتوراه

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

بناء انموذج رياضي لتجزئة التخطيط الاجمالي (DISAGGREGATE) مع تطبيق Building A Mathematical Model To Fractionation The Total Planning (DISAGGREGATE) With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: وعود سالم عباس

اسم المشرف: عبد الجبار خضر بخيت

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: بحوث العمليات

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: تناولت الدراسة موضوع تخطيط الانتاج الاجمالي لشركة الفداء العامة التابعة لوزارة الصناعة والمعادن من خلال تجميع جميع منتجات هذه الشركة التي تشترك بعضها بالبعض الاخر ضمن خصائص وقت التنصيب ووقت الانتاج وكلف الخزين على شكل ثلاث عوائل انتاجية هي (الاسطوانات اله | The study Addressed the total production planning to the fadaa public company redemption of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals by grouping all the products of this company that share to each other the other part of the time of installation and production time characteristics and cost inventories on three families of productivity is a form (hydraulic cylinders, Aldblatt (dampers), wiring, hydraulic ) by building a mathematical model based on a set of strategies for overall planning for the purpose of optimization of the potential productivity and reduce costs through the production process style of programming integers and unity of time, measured month. Also it addressed the issue of fragmentation of the total production planning (fragmentation of families) to the main purpose of their products to meet the demands of customers relying on the main indicators of the first model as inputs to tsecondmodeandStatement of distractions during the implementation of production lines, which depends on the first mathematical model outputs to reduce distractions for a total of one family products during the implementation of production lines and accelerate the process of implementation of the products on time through the use of proper programming setup using linear programming method within a week Transaction It serves as a so - called production schedule chairman, and through the application of the models show that the total costs of the company in accordance with the mathematical models used was (361,407,800) million while the cost of the company executing the plan and the duration of time itself in 2014 has reached (390 330 100) million, a difference of (28,922,300), and this is evidence of optimization models for production planning.

طرائق تقدير انموذج راش للبيانات المصنف متعددة القياسات مع تطبيق عملي Methods of Estimating The Rasch Model For Multiple Categorical Data Measurements With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: وضاح صبري ابراهيم المناصير

اسم المشرف: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: دكتوراه

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: يعتبر انموذج راش (The Rasch model)، من اهم نماذج نظرية السمة الكامنة (Latent Trait Theory) للنظرية المعاصرة لقياس سلوك الفرد، المبني على البيانات المصنفة، وهو احد نماذج الاستجابة للفقرة الاحادية البعد، بمعنى ان درجة الفرد في الاختبار لا يجب ان تكون دالة ( | Rasch Model is considered as one of the important models in Latent Trait Theory for the contemporary Theory to measuring human behavior that depends on categorized data. It is one of the response models for one dimension point i.e., the mark of an individual within test mustn’t be regarded as an evaluation for other individual’s samples that are used within Item Calibration.Therefore, the thesis aims at comparing some methods for Rasch Model’s parameters for Categorical Data Measurement by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).The following methods are also used : The Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (JML), The Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (MLE), Cohen’s Approximation Estimation Method (CAE), and Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEM ) and the first adjusted Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEMFS ) and the second adjusted Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEMSS ). The thesis includes a suggestion for a method to find the initial values of Rasch model’s parameters that are used in the previous mentioned methods and simulation is also used for overgeneralizing the results for the methods within various sizes levels, in which n : (n=10 , n=25 , n=75 , n=150 , n=300 , n=500 ) and ( n ) represents the individuals and (m) represents the number of the items ( m= 10 , m= 25 , m=35 , m= 45 ) and four different distributions are used ( Binomial , Poisson , Normal , Beta ). It is found that the best method for estimating the parameter of item difficulty (?_j), is The Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (JML) and the best method for estimating the parameter of individual’s ability (B_i), is the Bayesian Estimation Method of the Second Adjusted. Danial’s test for intelligence is used in AL - Mustansyria University, College of Administration and Economics, Fourth year, morning studies only and the number of students are (531). The main conclusions are : By comparing all the methods with the suggested ones to estimate Rasch model’s parameters , it is found that the best estimating for the parameter of individual’s ability (B_i), is the Bayesian Estimation Method of the Second Adjusted by depending on the smallest value for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and all the distributions are concrete and constant. It is found by comparing the methods to estimate the parameter of item difficulty (?_j) that the Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method is the best for estimation , in which Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is appeared with the smallest value and for all the concrete and constant distributions. It is found from the average of the correct answers of the testes that the tests items are within a closed level for each item and this gives the opportunity to students to answer the items. It is found from the average of the correct answers of the testes that the average of response is very good and it is between ( 0.47 - 0. 26 ) for more than 500 students from the total 531. This shows the similarity between students to have Danial’s test for intelligence. It is found from standards statistics ( T ) for the test items after comparing them with the tabled value for the natural distribution of the moral connotation ( a = 0.05 ) and the value ( 1.6449 ) that all the values without moral connotation and this confirms the acceptance of the test’s items to apply it on students’ sample which has different levels of difficulty but still parallel.

استخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية في التببؤ بمحصول الحنطة في جنوب العراق The Use of Geographic Information Systems In The Prediction of The Wheat Crop In Southern Iraq

اسم المؤلف: هلاء سعدون شكر

اسم المشرف: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

بناء انموذج ديناميكي وانموذج هدفي في ظل البيئة الضبابية مع تطبيق عملي Building of Dynamic Model And Goal Model Under Fuzzy Environment With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: هبة الله سعد عبد الغني

اسم المشرف: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: بحوث العمليات

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

العوامل المؤثرة على انتاج بعض المحاصيل الحقلية في العراق Factors Affecting The Production of Some Field Crops In Iraq

اسم المؤلف: نور كمال عبد الكريم

اسم المشرف: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

التنبؤ بانتاج التمور في الفرات الاوسط باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية Forecasting Production of Dates In The Middle Euphrates Using Time Series

اسم المؤلف: نعمة ساهون شنان

اسم المشرف: رباب عبد الرضا صالح البكري

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات دالة المعولية لنموذج احتمالي مركب مع تطبيق عملي Some Methods of Estimation Parameter Reliability Function of The Probability Model Compound With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: مهدي علي عبد الحسين الدريعي

اسم المشرف: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: تعد التوزيعات الاحتمالية المركبة من التوزيعات الاحصائية التي كسبت اهمية متميزة في العقود الاخيرة وذلك لتطبيقاتها الواسعة في المجالات الهندسية والصناعية والتجارب الطبية والبايلوجية وبناء على ذلك فقد تم استعمال انموذج احتمالي مركب (الاسي - ويبل) ذي الثلاث | The probability distributions compound is important statistical distributions which gained importance and wide in recent decades, to the importance of their use in scientific fields, and at the Advanced has been addressed in this letter to the probabilistic compound model (exponential - Weibull) with three parameters and characteristics enjoyed by such possibility Writing probability density function and cumulative function and reliability function was used four different methods of estimating 1 - Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method2 - Percentiles Estimators Method3 - Least squares method4 - Weighted least squares methodAnd a favorable comparison between these estimators using simulation style through several experiences of one of the main users of statistical standards which is the mean squer error It was reached that the best way to estimate the reliability function is the Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method for having the lowest mean squer error.Or in the practical side it has conducted a practical application to real data taken from the State Company for Textile Industries in Wasit, which is for times of failure for machines textile department and assess the sample sized 101 machines communtiy 450 machines function of reliability with the use destined reached by a researcher at the experimental side, a Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method, and through the results turned out to estimate reliability function decreases gradually increase the time.

طرائق لتقدير معالم نماذج عمليات ليفي وتوظيفها في اسعار عوائد اسهم مصرفي الشمال والمتحد Methods of Estimating Model Parameters Le'Vy Processes And Emoloyment In Returns Stock Prices North Bank And United

اسم المؤلف: مريم جمعة موسى

اسم المشرف: مناف يوسف حمود

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: تعد سوق الاوراق المالية الهدف المنشود للمستثمرين الذين يرغبون في التخصيص الكفء للموارد المالية المتاحة لديهم الامر الذي يتطلب توفر قدر من البيانات والمعلومات المالية الصحيحة المتعلقة بالشركات التي تتداول ادواتها في السوق حتى يتمكن هؤلاء من ترشيد قراراتهم | The stock Exchange is the target for investors who are interested in the efficient allocation of financial resources available to them , which would require a lot of data on companies that are trading their tools on the market so they can rationalize their decisions and make profits unusal in light of market efficient proper financial in formation.However because there are fluctuations in returns stock prices resulting from low and high stock returns prices at the Iraq stock Exchange solve this problem by using stochastic processes models,One of the models le'vy. Relying on the so - called Brownian subordinate as it has been relying on the so - called Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG).the research aims as the estimate that the parameters of his model using two methods (MME,MLE) and then employ those estimate of the parameters in the study of stock returns and evaluate asset pricing for both the united Bank and Bank of North which their data were taken from the Iraq stock Exchange. As well as the use of simulation method for the purpose of simulating the practical side with a different presumed cases.Has been reached the practical side, which showed the results to a preference MLE on MME based on the standard of comparison the average square error (MSE).As for the side of the simulation it has shown favorable results also MLE on MME. As well as the simulation results indicated that the increase in the value of kurtosis and decreasing the value of skewnsses in NIG model it may cause a decrease in large volatility especially when increasing valumes of samples while side applied found that the yield rate of the stock of the Bank United is higher than the rate of returns for the North Bank as well asthe United owning less coefficient c.v compared with the North Bank and both estimater (MME,MLE).therefore the United Bank is the best investment of the Northa Bank in addition , the North Bank was less efficient than the United Bank for, leading this speech to preference of investors to invest with united Bank and its superiority on the North Bank.

استعمال اساليب التنبؤ الاحصائية في تحليل قيم الصادرات النفطية Using Statistical Forecasting Methods In Analyzing Oil Exports Values

اسم المؤلف: لينا نضال شوكت

اسم المشرف: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: درست الباحثة موضوع اقيام الصادرات النفطية العراقية السنوية وللمدة من 1978م ولغاية 2014م بالاعتماد على ثلاث طرائق تحليل احصائية. الاولى، تحليل انموذج الانحدار الخطي المتعدد والتي تتطلب تحديد متغيرات توضيحية مؤثرة في قيم الصادرات النفطية وكانت هذه المتغيرا | The researcher studied the Iraqi Oil Exports Value form 1978 until 2014 using three statistical analysis methods. The first, Analysis of Multiple Linear Regression which requires determining independent variables that affect the Oil Exports Value and these variables were (barrel price and the average daily number of exported barrels). The second, Analysis of Polynomial Models (Growth Curve Model) and this model requires determining the suitable polynomial degree to represent the model as a curve which shows the increase or decrease that occurs in the data under study. And the third method is, Analysis of Time Series using Box - Jenkins models which requires identification of the suitable model and the degree of the model to represent the data. The three models, their equations and the mathematical relationships have been all defined, especially the ones that have been applied on the data.After analyzing the data using gretl and Matlab softwares and treating some problems that may occur to the data and getting the suitable models to represent the Oil Exports Value, in the Multiple Regression Model the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters have been calculated and testing the efficiency of the model and the estimated parameters using F and t tests. And in the Polynomial model, the curve has been estimated and drawn and calculating the confidence intervals of the parameters and the fitted curve and forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting. In the Time Series model, the stationarity in the mean and variance of the series has been tested then identifying the suitable order for the model which was (2,1,3) and testing the independence of the error then forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting

التحليل الاحصائي لفقر الاطفال وفقا لبيانات المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة لسنة 2012م The Statistical Analysis of Child Poverty According To The Socio - Economic Survey of The Family For The Year 2012

اسم المؤلف: قاسم محمد صاحب

اسم المشرف: ضياء عواد كاظم

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: تعتبر دراسة واقع الطفولة في العراق من القضايا المهمة نظرا لاهمية هذه الفئة في المجتمع , كونهم يعدون البذار الاول للمجتمع ومن خلالهم يحدد المسار الذي يتوجه اليه. تهتم الدراسة في اعطاء صورة واضحة عن واقع فقر الاطفال في العراق , من خلال ما يعانية الاطفال | Study reality of childhood in Iraq , one of the important issues of the importance of this category in the community , as they are consider the first seed to the community and through them determines the path that goes him. The study is interested in giving a clear picture of the of the reality of child poverty in Iraq , through the suffering of the child cases of deprivation of needs and basic services is saturated by appling Bristol indicators of severe deprivation for children in the calculation of depdeprivations suffred by the children and the severe poverty of children , and classification of children in accordance with the integrated sample poverty and socioeconomic survey of the family for the year 2012 scale , amounting to (25488) families wich included (87118) children , wich were obtained from the ministry of planning / central statistical , which included all the governorates. used in statistical data analysis software (stata version 12 , spss version 21) , as well as use of factor analysis as a way in multivariate statistical analysis of the data to find the most important factors affecting the phenomenon of the child poverty The researcher found through this study that (18.8%) of all children suffered from severe child poverty in 2012 , and the governorate of thi - qar top Iraqi governorates in the proportion of child poverty. It was also classified the children of Iraq in accordance with the integrated poverty measure , as shown through which (8.3%) of the total children suffered chronic poverty (they have suffered poverty according to the style of poverty and style UBN line ) , and (14.5%) suffered a newly poverty ( the have suffered poverty according to the style of the poverty line only ) , (10.2%) is the ratio of children who have suffered structural poverty (they suffered poverty according to the style of UBN only), the children who were classified according to the non - poor poverty measurement method was accounted for (66.9%) of the total children. By using factor analysis to find the most important factors affecting the phenomenon of Child poverty, it shows that there are five factors that control the fifteen variables on the level of Iraq and also on the urban level, either in terms of the rurel were six factors, The variable (severe deprivation of education) the greatest impact in the formation of the first factor on the level of Iraq, either at the urban level was variable (monetary poverty for the family) the greatest impact in the formation of the first factor, as was the rurel to the variable (severe deprivation of information) has the greatest impactin The first factor formation

تقديرات معلمات انموذج الانحدار متعدد العوامل - متعدد الحدود من الدرجة الثانية مع تطبيق عملي Estimations Parameters Multi - Factor - A Polynomial of The Second Degree Regression With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: غيث عبد الشهيد كاظم السلطاني

اسم المشرف: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: في انماذج الانحدار تكون عادة العلاقة بين المتغير المعتمد ( ) والمتغير المستقل ( ) او المتغيرات المستقلة ( ) خطية وفي انماذج اخرى تكون لا خطية. وان انموذج الانحدار المتعدد العوامل - المتعدد الحدود من الدرجة الثانية من النماذج اللاخطية والتي يمكن من خلاله ا | Regression models for the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the independent variable (X) or independent variables (X’s) which are linear or nonlinear. And multiple regression model factors - Multi - border second class of nonlinear models that can get through the estimators of its parameters. In our research was one of the hypotheses regression unrealized, which is that the random error distribution was the distribution of non - identical (Generalized logistic distribution) which led to the use of more accurate methods than the ordinary methods , such as method of robust Laplace and modified maximum likelihood to obtain a estimates of multiple regression parameters factors - multiple modalities border from the second division. On the theoretical side of this research it was addressed to display some specimen multi - factor regression parameters estimates formats - Multi - border quadratic using ordinary least squares method and the method of the modified maximum likelihood and robust Laplace. In the Experimental side it has been the work of experiments using simulation and comparison of these experiments was the use of the index statistical mean square error of the parameters for the model, and through comparison between the methods show that the modified maximum likelihood was the best. As the best values for my shape parameter and scale parameter (b=1,?=1 ) and each sample sizes (n = 20,50.100). As it has been the application of the modified maximum likelihood to real data represent the fact that your natural hormone insulin diabetes depending on the enzyme GOT data, and the GPT enzyme and hormone Hbalc.It was reached to increase the hormone Hbalc lead to a decrease in the hormone's natural insulin diabetes and this leads to an increase in blood sugar, and increase the enzyme GOT and GPT enzyme leads to increased natural hormone insulin.

تحديد افضل اسلوب تمهيدي حصين لتقدير انموذج انحدار لا معلمي مع تطبيق عملي Determination of The Best Robust Smoothing Technique To Estimate A Nonparametric Regression Model With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: غياث حميد مجيد

اسم المشرف: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: دكتوراه

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: لقد شهدت طرائق تقدير نماذج الانحدار اللامعلمي في السنوات الماضية توسعا كبيرا، ويعزى ذلك التوسع الى توصل الباحثين الى صعوبة مواكبة الطرائق المعلمية المستعملة في تقدير نماذج الانحدار بسبب المرونة المطلوبة عند تحليل البيانات سواء كانت البيانات كمية ام نوعي | In the past many years, the methods of estimating nonparametric regression models have been witnessed a significant expansion, due to the researchers reach difficulties to cope with use of the parametric methods in estimating of regression methods because of the desired flexibility during data analysis whether being qualitative or quantitative. But this expansion in the field of estimating nonparametric regression models come up with the major development in the hardware and software of computers, which leads to development of nonparametric regression methods and one of the most important methods is smoothing methods.In this research, the study takes different types of smoothing methods which include Kernel Smoothing and Smoothing Splines and their significant role in estimation of nonparametric regression models to describe the relationship between the explanatory variables and response variable. The researcher employs the concept of Robustness in the smoothing methods that have been adopted in this research, by using three types of smoothing methods which are Local Polynomial Kernel (LPK), Penalized Spline (PS) and Spline Regression (SR) which ends up with robust smoothing methods which are, Robust LPK, Robust PS, and Robust SR.Many issues may face the researcher while smoothing nonparametric regression models, such as data includes outliers. This leads to use the robust methods when smoothing the nonparametric functions. To do this certain methods of robust nonparametric regression has been used instead of some suggested methods in case of outliers exists in data. Therefore, the aim of this dissertation is to estimate the nonparametric regression model using robust smoothing methods and making comparisons between different methods. The researcher took the most useful researches deals with this subject such as robust methods that use these methods to estimate nonparametric regression model, and apply them in two fields, experimental and practical, in experimental field we use the simulation technique to have constant data that simulate the real data that use it in practical field. In practical field real data has been taken from Iraqi Stock Market especially the data about Al - Khaliej Insurance Company, the response variable represents the Close Price for Stock and the elementary variable is the Trading Volume. Also, the researcher suggested some of the most important conclusion drawn from experimental and practical fields in addition to some recommendations that can be adopted in future studies

بناء انموذج السيطرة على الخزين في ظل ضبابية الطلب وفترة الانتظار مع تطبيق عملي

اسم المؤلف: غسق محمد عبد

اسم المشرف: حامد سعد نور الشمرتي

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: بحوث العمليات

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: واضح ان موضوع السيطرة على المخزون له اهمية واهتمام من كثيرين لكونه يتميز بطابع الشمول, اذ تكاد تكون قائمة المخزون في الوقت الحالي لانهائية , وكذلك تواجه اي ادارة او مؤسسة صعوبات في اتخاذ القرار لتحديد كمية المخزون وذلك لكي تحقق توازنا بين كلفة المخزون وا | It is clear that the subject of the control of the inventory has to be attached and the interest of many, because it is characterized by inclusiveness,as are almost infinite inventory, and also facing any administration or difficulties foundation in decision - making to determine the amount of inventory in order to achieve a balance between the cost of inventory and keep it in exchange for the cost of disabling the plant or the cost of the loss of profit due to the loss of the goods required by the cusomers , not to mention when he discovers the environment under study fuzzy because of the accuracy of the data or similarity somewhat or change continuously.It has been in this letter build a mathematical model using linear programming misty figures fuzzy function trigonometric tracking three products (oil, White, jet fuel, grease) and for quarterly and one year (2014) was to address motion blur using the method of integrative representation of the average gradient and then solving the specimen through direct compensation the cost of production and actual inventories in the goal of the specimen proposed and to find the total cost and compare it with the cost of winning the college from the specimen after being admitted as a model linear programming in turnkey program (WIN QSB) function turned out that the total extracted cost by less than the actual total cost of the program and this Matsay him company, which reduce costs or at least achieve a balance between the cost of inventory and keep it in exchange for the cost of disabling the plant or the cost of the loss by the loss of material in the case of demand

التنبــؤ بالارقام القياسية لاسعار المستهلك في العراق Forecasting The Consumer Price Index Number In Iraq

اسم المؤلف: غادة مصطفى عطا

اسم المشرف: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: يعد الرقم القياسي لاسعار المستهلك واحدا من اكثر الادوات الاحصائية استعمالا لقياس التضخم في اقتصاد اي بلد، والهدف الرئيسي من احتساب هذا الرقم القياسي هو رصد التغيرات التي تطرا على اسعار السلع والخدمات وذلك لتقدير التغير في القوة الشرائية لوحدة النقود وم | The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely used statistical tools to measure inflation in a country’s economy, the main objective of calculating this index is to monitor changes in the prices of goods and services in order to estimate the change in the purchasing power of money and the subsequent amendment to the wages and the prices on some services to ensure the stability of their purchasing power.Iraq's economy has been suffering for a long time of continuous increase in most of goods and services prices in the local market due to internal and external many factors which led to the deterioration in economic development and have negative impact on economic and social life of consumers specially those who have fixed and limited income، therefore Knowledge of the movement and trends in prices of goods and services in the future will help the planners and decision - makers to put financial and productivity suitable policy to achieve stability in domestic prices.Whereas this research aims to forecasting of the consumer price index numbers in Iraq starting from (January 2015 - December 2016) and for the twelfth commodity groups according to “Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) " throughout using way of time series analysis based upon monthly data for the period (2009 - 2014) that are taken from Central Bureau of Statistical Organization considering year 2007 as the base year because this year is economically stable.Data has been analyzed by using time series cross by Box - Jenkins methodology (Identification, parameters estimation, diagnostic checking model, forecasting) reliance on statistical program ( Gretl - 1.1), the results of analysis showed that after comparison between Box - Jenkins models per each series based on Akaike Information Criterion(AIC), Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC), The best forecasting model of consumer prices index numbers for commodity groups twelve are as follows :

مستوى تعليم المراة في العراق وتاثيره في امراض الاطفال The Level of Women'S Education In Iraq And Its Effect On Children'S Diseases

اسم المؤلف: علي صبيح فرحان الطائي

اسم المشرف: اسماء نجم عبد الله

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: ان الظاهرة الطبيعية لتعليم الام نجدها تسلك سلوكا غير خطي، ولتحليل تلك الظاهرة نستعمل النماذج اللاخطية لوصفها وتحليلها وانموذج الانحدار اللوجستي يعد واحد من اهم هذه النماذج الاحصائية التي تستعمل لوصف وتحليل تلك الظاهرة وتطبق هذه النماذج عندما تكون المتغي | The natural phenomenon for the education of the mother is found behave in a non - linear, and to analyze this phenomenon, we use non - linear models to describe, analyze and model logistic regression is one of the most important of these statistical models used to describe and analyze this phenomenon and apply these models when they are dependent variables (response) and descriptive and specific variables (Qualitative and limited dependent variables) that is, those that are expressed in a specific set of qualities or facts characteristic((The education of the parents, particularly the mother contributes to the development of public health, especially for children under the age of five and is working to raise the educational level of parents to improve the health and living level and contribute to the dissemination of health education that are part of the general cultureThe research sample included socio - economic survey of households in Iraq results (IHSES - 2012) and carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics and the body count of the Kurdistan region and for the age group of five years or less.The research aims to use binary logistic regression method to determine the effect of mother's education on children's exposure to disease in Iraq as a whole, according to the environment (urban, rural) and by region (Baghdad, North, South and Central(Depending on the test (Hosmer and Lemeshow Test) show that the chosen model approved variable (Y exposure to the disease) for the whole of Iraq, as well as by region (Baghdad, North, Central and South) and the environment (urban, rural) significantly, meaning that there the effect of mother's education on disease susceptibility especially levels of education (mom, read only) it has been shown that the level of education (my mother (x1 (1) contribute to the increased susceptibility to disease has been ranked first in influencing the approved variable (Y) at the level of (Iraq as a whole and the environment (urban), the northern region ), while (read only x1 (2)) contributes to reduce exposure to the disease has been ranked first in influencing the approved variable (Y) at the level of (the environment (the countryside), Baghdad, Central) area, either at the level of the southern region, the (mom x1 (1)) contributes to reduce exposure to the disease has been ranked first in influencing the approved variable (Y).

استعمال طريقتي انحدار الحرف والمركبات الرئيسية في تقدير معلمات انموذج اللوجستك في حالة وجود مشكلة التعدد الخطي مع تطبيق عملي Use The Methods of Ridge Regression And Principle Components To Estimate The Parameters of Logistic Model Under Multicollinearity With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: علي حسين فلوح

اسم المشرف: سهيل نجم عبود

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: ماجستير

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

المستخلص: ان اكثر الدراسات في انموذج انحدار اللوجستيك تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يمكن من خلاله الحصول على مقدرات عالية الكفاءة.ان مشكلة التعدد الخطي يمكن ان تظهر في انموذج درجة الميل (Propensity Score Model) عند تقدير متوسط تاثير | More studies on the topic of logistics regression model takes a more advanced in the process of careful statistical analysis which aims to get estimators with a high level of efficiency.The problem of Multicollinearity can appear in the model of propensity scores (PS) when estimating the average treatment effects (ATEs). In this thesis, using the methods of logistic ridge regression, logistic principle components regression an alternative to the maximum likelihood estimates in the propensity scores model. The average treatment effects (ATEs) estimators adopted the method of inverse probability weighted (IPW). logistic ridge regression (LRR), principle components logistical regression (PCLR), and maximum likelihood (ML) used to estimate the propensity scores (PS), The logistics regression model and the variable (W_i) and the Bernoulli distribution in depended variables then probability (?_i) and then estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs), where the use of simulations (Monte Carlo) to generate tracking data model of logistic regression and Multicollinearity problem depending on various factors, from simple correlation coefficient values and sample size and the number of independent variables and the constant value plus the adoption of different designs of propensity score in simulation study, this is due to the fact that estimates the average treatment effects (ATEs) her strengths and different accounts. And we use Bias and the mean squares error (MSE) as criteria for comparing methods of estimation.The results that have been obtained using a simulation study indicates that the Bias and the mean square error (MSE) depend on the sample size and the degree of the correlation as well as the design propensity score model. I have observed that the estimation method of logistic ridge regression (LRR) and principle component logistic regression (PCLR) was the best of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE).In addition to the simulation study, has been applied method of logistic ridge regression (depending on(2 - 16)) on the data of the fact disease, kidney failure, which was obtained from the (Al_Emamyn city hospital) for different models to estimate the propensity scores and then estimate average treatment effect (ATE).

تقدير دوال الفشل للتوزيع الناتج من دمج توزيع بواسون ليندلي مع توزيعات اخرى Estimating The Functions Failure Which Gains From Compound Poisson Lindley Distribution With Other Distributions

اسم المؤلف: علي بندر نعيمة

اسم المشرف: عماد حازم عبودي

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء

الدرجة: دكتوراه

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى:

استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بمحصول الرز في بعض مناطق الوسط والجنوب في العراق Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict Rice Production In Some Middle And South Areas In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2014

اسم المؤلف: عدويه حسن يوسف الطائي

اسم المشرف: غفران اسماعيل كمال

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

السنة: 2016

الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء التطبيقي

الدرجة: دبلوم عالي

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد

اللغة: العربية

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

الصفحات الاولى: