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تقدير معولية الانظمة باستعمال مقدرات بيز اللامعلمية وشبه المعلمية مع تطبيق عملي == System’s Reliability Using Nonparametric And Semi Parametric Bayesian Estimators With Practical Application

Author name: اسيل محمود شاكر السهيل
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر المعولية اداة لتقييم الاداء الوظيفي لاي منتج خلال فترة حياته وتعتمد على ظروف عمل ووقت وبيئة محددة وهي من المستلزمات الاساسية في العملية الانتاجية، وتنبع الاهمية الكبيرة للمعولية كونها تلائم اغلب التطبيقات العملية والمتمثلة بالمعدات والاجهزة العا | The reliability as tool to estimate the work performance of any product during its life cycle, it depends on restricted conditions of work and the time and environment of work, also it considers as essential requirement in the production, the most significant important of reliability represented of being fit for the most of practical applications such as equipment and invalid devices which can fix and get maintenance in case it stopped of work then return it to work again. These devices and equipment consider as correlation between a group of parts or components to form what it is called “system” , there are any kinds of systems classified according to the way that components are connected such as k - out of - n which is ready to work if at least one of k components is working, and “Series system” which is ready to work if all of its components are working , also there is another kind of system its work just in case one of its components is working and this called “Parallel System”. Therefore , the aim of thesis focuses on estimating the reliability of systems (k - out of - n, series and parallel system ) by nonparametric and semi parametric methods using Dirichlet process prior and compare it with reliability of system values by classical methods which is represented by Kernel estimator method , Kaplan - meier estimator method and product limit estimator method to illustrate the quality using statistical indicator Integral Mean Square Error (IMSE) , in additional modified methods. So the simulation procedures to create using different sizes of samples , then applying the best method for Series system on the real data which collected in Al - Mamon factory which belong to general company for plant oil production - Aluminum department the results showed that the reliability function values start decreasing with increasing time in relation to the estimated nonparametric and semi parametric , this means that machines has many invalid because the more invalid in machines cusses to decreasing it reliability

مقارنة بين طرائق تحليل وتنبؤ السلاسل الزمنية وتطبيقها على مبيعات الشركة العامة لتوزيع كهرباء بغداد == Comparative Studies Among The Methods of Analysis And Forecasting Time Series With Application On Electricity Sales In Baghdad City

Author name: اسيل سمير محمد محمود
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد التنبؤ بالسلوك المستقبلي للسلاسل الزمنية من الموضوعات الهامة في العلوم الاحصائية، وذلك للحاجة اليه في مجالات الحياة جميعا، مثل التنبؤ بالحالة الجوية ودرجات الحرارة، حالة السوق والاسعار، تدفق المياه، واستهلاك الطاقة الكهربائية. وقد تزايد الاهتم | Forecasting of future behavior of time series is one of the important subjects in statistical science, because of its need in the different fields of life, like forecasting of weather state and air temperature market state and price water flow consumption electrical power, in the recent years there is an increased interesting in forecasting, and some new techniques like Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Trend Sets. These techniques are able for learning and self - adaptation with any model, and don’t need assumption on the natural of time series. On the other side, the classical forecasting methods like Box - Jenkins method, exponential smoothing and adaptive filtering need certain conditions. A condensed study was done to compare between ordinary methods, namely; Box & Jenkins, ES, and Adaptive Filtering with modern methods namely; ANN, and Fuzzy Trend Set, where some new results are obtained and new method was proposed. A raw data electrical power in Baghdad city is used to perform this comparison through the application of the two programs Statistica and Matlab. From the practical application it found that proposed method gives better and more efficient results than others.

ايجاد التوزيع الثنائي المشترك باعتماد دوال رابطة مختلفة مع تطبيق في المجال الحيوي == Finding Bivirate Distribution By Using Different Copula'S Functions With Application In Biotical Field

Author name: اسماعيل هادي جلوب
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تتلخص الدراسة على كيفية ايجاد التوزيع الثنائي الاسي المشترك من خلال دالة الرابطة وقد طبق ذلك على رابطة plackett حيث تم اقتراح رابطة جديدة من التعديل الرياضي الذي تم على تلك الرابطة , حيث تم اجراء المقارنات بين رابطة plackett والرابطة المقترحة والمقدر المع | The limit of our the research we choosing the copula function to finding probability joint distribution and application it on plackett copula to finding exponential joint bivariate distribution. The research introduce the method for obtaining a modified plackett's copula ,and also modification for the estimator of proposed copula function, also using simulation for different values of sample size , all the result and comparison using BAISE,RMSE,AIC,BIC are explained through special tables we show that the results in the suggest copula is better for all cases, We do the practical on suggest copula for the data obtained from central child hospital - ministry of Iraqi health which consist the data about Total Serum Bilrubn (T.S.B) and Park Cell Volume (P.C.V).

استخدام توزيعي بيتا والاسي في تقدير معالمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي == Use of Beta & Exponential Distributions To Estimate The Parameters of The Linear Regression Model

Author name: اسامة محمد جاسم القصاب
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تبقى عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج الانحدار من المواضيع المهمة رغم كثرة ما كتب عنها من خلال البحوث والدراسات وهذه الدراسات تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير سواء كان هذا الاسلوب تقليدي او بيزي او تبعا للتوزيعات التي يتم توظيفها في عملية التق | the process of estimating the parameters of regression model , is still still one of the important subjects despite of the large number of papers and studies written in this subject , these studies are differ in techniques followed in the process of estimation , whether they are classic or baysian , or according to the distributions applied in the estimation , and which are available about some of the parameters of regression model.In this thesis , two different distributions are applied ( Beta , Exponential )in estimating different sample sizes and then making a comparison among the classic estimation techniques represented by (OLS) method , and the method of applying one distribution or two (u.d) , and the baysian methods by providing the distributions themselves.By using the simulation technique , results has been obtained to provide the researcher with the image to clarify the best method in the estimation technique.This thesis come in four chapters : The first chapter contains the introduction and the background of the subject.The second chapter contains the theoretical basis of the estimation methods, when one or two distribution are applied in estimation technique whether is the classic or baysian method, it also contains all that related to derivation process to obtains the estimation style.The third chapter contains , a display of the practical side and also a display of the results of the simulation process used to reach to the best techniques of estimation.Finally, the forth chapter contains the conclusions and recommendation as well as future studies.

مقارنة دوال كثافة الطيف للسلاسل الزمنية غير المستقرة لحجوم عينات غير متساوية مع تطبيق عملي == Comparing Spectral Densities of Non - Stationary of Time Series With Unequal Sample Sizes

Author name: احلام حنش كاطع
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الاطروحة تم تقدير المسافة بين اي دالتي كثافة طيف لسلسلتين زمنيتين غير متساويتين في الطول مع ادخال عامل الزمن والتردد ومن ثم اختبار التشابه والاختلاف وفق الاختبار الاحصائي (Nievau - ?) من خلال المقارنة بين دوال كثافة الطيف لسلاسل زمنية شبه مستقرة ال | In this thesis the distance between any two spectrum density functions not equals in the length estimated with interring time and frequency factor then testing the similarity and difference according to statistical test (Nievau - ?) through the comparison among spectrum density functions for non - stationary time series and have a diffirent length (sizes). There are many methods for estimating spectral density functions for non - stationary time series, Therefore we study three different methods which are an important methods where every method holds more characteristics of spectral density functions which are : Evolutionary spectrum method, Wigner - Ville spectrum method and Short - time periodogram method. A forth method suggested depends on shrinkage principle called Shrinkage method which is combines the characteristics of these methods and with a deferent weights p_(1 ,) p_2 where the mathematical derivation for computing weights to the past methods and finding the best weights that gives the smallest MSE has been done.Then a comparison among these four methods to select the best method for applicant it in Oral part using (MAPE)criteria. A simulation experiment conducted on a semi - stationary time series which is a special case of non - stationary time series that follows elated process with the from : x(t)=c(t)x_t^0 Where : C(t) is a function depends on t only, x(t) is a stationary time series follows ARMA(p,q) models with different parameters and different sample size, The result of simulation shows that suggested method (shrinkage method) for spectral density is the best in all of models and sample sizetherefore the best method in estimation is used in oral part to estimating the spectral density concentration of airborne particles (TSP) of three stations (Jaderyah, Andalus, Al - Alawi ) in Baghdad province contains the interval ( 2005 - 2011) measured monthly and this series are different in length, the distance between any tow series are estimated then tested The result show that there are no convergence between density function for the spectrums of these three series that’s mean there are a different in air pollution for the three regions according to its nature

تقدير نماذج الانحدار للبيانات الطولية مع الانقطاع في الاستجابة وتطبيقها في المجال الطبي == Estimate The Regression Model of Longitudinal Data With Drop - Outs In Response Variable With Application In Medical Field

Author name: نازك جعفر صادق
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اكتسبت انموذجات البيانات الطولية في العقد الحالي اهتماما بالغا وتحديدا انموذج احتمال الانقطاع (انموذج الخليط النمطي) Pattern Mixture Model)(PMM)) الذي يعتبر من اهم الانموذجات التي توظف لاجل معالجة مشكلة فقدان المعلومات وخصوصا في البحوث الاقتصادية والطبية | Longitudinal data models have a great attention in the current decade specifically probability dropout model, Pattern Mixture Model (PMM) which is considered as the most important models that used in order to overcome the problem of dropout information es

بناء توزيع اسي - باريتو الموزون مع تطبيق عملي == Weighted Exponential - Pareto Distribution Structure With Practical Application

Author name: مهدي وهاب نعمة نصرالله
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعتمد مفهوم التوزيعات ذات تحيز الحجم في تطوير نماذج مناسبة لبيانات تجارب الحياة, اذ يتم تعديل دالة الاحتمال الاصلي من البيانات الاصلية الى داله احتمالية جديده نتيجة ادخال وزن لازالة التحيز في الحجم من البيانات الحقيقية. ان هذا التعديل يسهم في توفير الاستن | The concept of biased Size Distributions is dependent in developing suitable data for life experiences, whereas the origin probability function from the origin data is modified in to new probability function by introducing a weight to eliminate the biase

بناء انموذج احصائي لقياس الفقر متعدد الابعاد في العراق == Building A Statistical Model of The Multi - Dimensional Poverty In Iraq

Author name: وفاء جاسم محمد العقابي
Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي | مهدي محسن العلاق
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان التطور الحاصل في بحوث الفقر وخصوصا في الاونة الاخيرة, ليس فقط للدخل او للثروة وانما يعتمد على العديد من المتغيرات, لذلك ادخلت متغيرات, مثل التعليم والصحة والعمل والبنى التحتية وغيرها من الابعاد, نحن لانستطيع القول ان الفرد فقير لان ممكن ان يكون فقير في

تحديد حجم العينة لاساليب بيز الحصينة == Sample Size Determination For Robust Bayesian Analysis

Author name: سهير قحطان اسماعيل الخاصكي
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: من الملاحظ ان معظم البحوث والدراسات في مجال الاحصاء ولاسيما في حقل تحديد حجم العينة تهدف الى الحصول على اعلى دقة تقدير للعينة المثلى.ومن هنا جاء هدف الاطروحة في الوصول الى مقدرات جيدة في تحديد حجم العينة الامثل، اذ تنامى الاتجاه الحديث في الاحصاء في الس | It has been noticed that most of the researches and studies in the statistic field especially in determining the sample size aim to have the highest adequacy in estimating the optimal sample Size. From this point the aim of this dissertation came to reach

التحليل المويجي لانموذج الانحدار في ظل بيانات مفقودة == Wavelet Analysis For Regression Model With Missing Data

Author name: سعد كاظم حمزة
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد مشكلة البيانات المفقودة عقبة كبيرة امام الباحثين في عملية تحليل البيانات في مختلف المجالات، وان هذه المشكلة متكررة الظهور في جميع مجالات الدراسات الاجتماعية والطبية والفلكية والتجارب السريرية وغيرها.وان وجود مثل هكذا مشكلة ضمن البيانات المراد دراسته | The problem of missing data represents a major obstacle before researchers in the process of data analysis in different fields since, this problem is a recurrent one in all fields of study including social, medical, astronomical and clinical experiments a

اثر التوزيع غير الطبيعي لحدود الخطا العشوائي في تقدير معلمات بعض نماذج ARMA - GARCH مع تطبيق == Non - Gaussian Distribution Impact of Random Error Terms In Parameters Estimation of Some Arma - Garch Models With Application

Author name: علي ياسين غني البدراوي
Supervisor name: جواد كاظم خضير الموسوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: Mustansiriyah University
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد دراسة النموذج ARMA - GARCH من الدراسات الحديثة في مجال السلاسل الزمنية, وان اهم ما يميز هذه النماذج ان كلا من المتوسط المشروط والتباين المشروط يعتمدان على الماضي اي غير ثابتين. وان اغلب هذه الدراسات استخدمت ثلاثة توزيعات مستمرة مشروطة للخطا وهي (التوز | The study of ARMA - GARCH is one of recent studies in the field of time series, and these models are characterized by the depending of it is conditional mean and conditional variance in the past. The most of previous studies used three continuous distribu

بناء دالة الرابطة للتوزيع الثنائي للقيمة المتطرفة (كامبل) مع تطبيق عملي لمرضى السكري في بغداد == Copula Function For Building A Bivariate Distribution of Extreme Value With Practical Application For Patients With Diabetes In Baghdad

Author name: امال صادق حمودي الموسوي
Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: عند التعامل مع توزيع متعدد المتغي ا رت لمتوزيعات الحدية التي تعاني من مشكمة عدم الاستقلالية.تعتبر ال ا ربطة احدى وسائل الد ا رسة عندما لا يمكن استعمال صيغة متعدد المتغي ا رت بصورة مباشرةكما هو الحال في حالة الاستقلالية.وفي هذه الاطروحة تم د ا رسة احد نما | When we dealing with a multivariate distribution of marginal distribution that suffer from the problem of independency. The Copula is considered one of the study means , which consist of using multivariate formula directly, as it was in independency case.

تصميم خطط عينات قبول مزدوجة باستعمال توزيع كاما المعكوس == Design a Double Sampling Plans Using Inverted Gamma Distribution

Author name: صبا زكي اسماعيل محمد العباسي
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

امثلية الدوال الشرائحية في البيانات غير المتجانسة == Optimality of Spline Functions in Noisy Data

Author name: انوار ضياء عبد الكريم الشكرجي
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

بناء جداول الحياة الذاتية في العراق باستعمال احتمالات البقاء == The Construction of Subjective Life Tables for Iraq by using subjective probabilities

Author name: ياسمين عبد الرحمن محمد الجواد
Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي | مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

تصميم نظام خطط معاينة لاوقات الفشل المتوزعة توزيع Frechet مضبب المعالم مع تطبيق عملي

Author name: وليد مية رودين
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

استخدام المحاكاة في مقارنة مقدرات التقلص لمعلمة الشكل لتوزيع ويبل لبيانات المراقبة == USING SIMULATION IN COMPARING SHRINKAGES ESTIMATION OF PARAMETRIC TO WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION OF CENSORED DATA

Author name: نجاة عبد الجبار رجب الشمري
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

استخدام اساليب التمهيد المويجية في تشخيص بعض من نماذج السلاسل الزمنية اللاخطية باستخدام المحاكاة

Author name: مهدي محمد البياع
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

دراسة مقارنة لطرائق تقدير انموذج انحدار خطي متعدد : دراسة تطبيقية على الارقام القياسية == A Study of Comparing to Estimate the multiple linear Regression “Application Study on Index Numbers

Author name: محمود محمد شكور محمود امرير
Supervisor name: عبد الحسين زيني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

اعتماد دالة الاتاحية في تحديد فترة الصيانة الوقائية الدورية غير التامة المثلى في شركة مصافي الوسط == Dependence Availability Function in Determination The Optimal Period of Periodic Imperfect Preventive Maintenance in Midland Refineries Company

Author name: فراس صدام عبد
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير معالم انموذج (TOBIT) باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيقها في المجال الصحي

Author name: عامر فاضل توفيق حسن خيوكه
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

استخدام بعض الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية في تقدير وفيات الاطفال دون الخامسة من العمر في العراق == Using Some Parametric and Non parametric Methods for Estimation Under Five Child Mortality Rate in IRAQ

Author name: صبيحة مجيد شياع
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

تحليل نماذج السلاسل الزمنية اللاخطية من نوع (GARCH & ARCH) للرتب الدنيا باستخدام المحاكاة == Analysis of Nonlinear time series Models (GARCH & ARCH) for the Lower Order by using Simulation

Author name: سهيل نجم عبد الله
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

بعض الطرائق الحصينة لمعالجة مشكلة التعدد الخطي في النماذج الخطية مع تطبيق عملي == Some Robust Methods For Handling the Problem of Multicollinearity In Linear Models With Practical Application

Author name: رباب عبد الرضا صالح البكري
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

مقارنة طرائق تقدير معلمات انموذج انحدار بواسون في ظل وجود مشكلة التعدد الخطي مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparison Of Parameters Estimation Methods For The Poisson Regression Model Under Existing Of multicollinearty Problem With Application

Author name: حسام موفق صبري
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
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