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دراسة احصائية لوفيات الاطفال الرضع لمحافظة نينوى للفترة 1987 - 2004

Author name: سما سعدي علي الهاشمي
Supervisor name: عبد الحسين زيني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الاحصاء السكاني ( الديموغرافي ) من العلوم المهمة في الوقت الحاضر، فهو الدراسة الاحصائية للسكان وخصائصهم وفعالياتهم وتغييراتهم من حيث التكاثر والوفاة والانتقال والعوامل التي تؤثر فيها والنتائج التي تنشا عنها. من اهم التغيرات التي تحدث على السكان ه

اشتراك توزيعي ويبل وتكوين توزيع الباي ويبل == The Participation of Two Weibull Distributions And The Formation of Bi - Weibull Distribution

Author name: سلام جاسم محمد الساعدي
Supervisor name: علي عبد الحسين صالح الوكيل
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية باعتباره علما يتعامل مع اعمار المعدات ولاسيما احتمالات البقاء ومتوسط الحياة وهذا يعود بالاساس الى التطور التكنولوجي السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات. وعلى هذا الاساس فان در | The wide increasing concern of studying the topic of reliability as a science dealing with equipment ages, especially the survival and life average probabilities rendered to the fast technological development and the utility of complicated electronic systems in various fields. On that basis, the studying the topic of reliability and the connection between the theoretical and applied sides together have a great importance because they are considered the indicator towards stating the extent of efficiency and capacity of the machine and the work system without damages for a long period of time, accordingly, the study of (Weibull Distribution) is a sample of failure functions because this distribution is suitable when failure rates are high relatively at the operating start, then these rates decrease gradually with time increase. Accordingly, the thesis includes mainly a display of a new sample of joint distributions which is known as (Bi - Weibull). This kind of distribution gives more elasticity and more accurate results.Hence, the basic statistical measures and the parameter estimation of (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) were found through (MLE) by using the simulation method (Inverse Formula). In order to reach the research aim, the research is divided into five chapters. Chapter one deals with the topic general backgrounds and function definition including the reliability function. Whereas chapter two is dedicated to expose the methods of estimating the parameters of the (2 - Parameter Weibull Distribution) with displaying the basic statistical measures of (2 and 3 - Parameter Weibull Distributions). As to chapter three, it includes the theoretical side of (Bi - Weibull Distribution) with the exposure of the following three states of this distribution : - (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (5 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (6 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) with their basic statistical measures.Chapter four manifests the research programs and simulation results as well as result analysis. Chapter five includes the conclusions and recommendations the researcher has arrived at

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة التمهيدية لدوال اللب متعدد المتغيرات وتوظيفها في الدوال التمييزية مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Smoothing of Estimate Methods For Multivariate Kernel Functions And Employs Them In Discriminants Functions With Practical Application

Author name: سكينة شامل جاسم
Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان التحليل التمييزي (Discriminant Analysis ) غالبا ما يعاني من مشكلة صغر حجم العينة ( SSS ) Small Simple Size خاصة عندما يتم تطبيقها لتصنيف انماط عالية الابعاد مثل (التعرف على الوجه، حركة اليد وحركة الجينات الوراثية و...)، او عندما تكون البيانات لديها | The linear discriminant analysis often suffer from small sample size (sss) problem.especially when they are applied for the classification of high_dimenssional patterns. Such as (face recognition) or when data is distributed normal distribution but when they are non _ linear and has spread widely. We are dealing with this problem by using a technique of kernel discriminant analysis. because this technique depends on the kernel density estimation which belong to the class of estimates. it is commonly perform Avery important technique for visualizing data distribution and smoothing. It is unimportant to procedure in the explanatory data analysis, as that used in kernel discriminate analysis well known by researchers. To identify statistical. patterns. it is also known that these estimates are. Based mainly on the choice of bandwidth parameter end controlled on smoothing of estimation and to choice kernel function. has been the use of carton methods to estimate band width parameter it is : plugin methad Least square Cross validation method Smoothed Cross validation method Are selected as a parameter of bandwidth and use in kernel density estimation (KDE( and then employ them in kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) approach. Through the joint base for groups is a kernel discriminant rule (KDR) which rely heavily on density classified (f ?_j) and probability of prior (? ?_j).therefore the problem of multiple class(The use of several variables) will be more important and visible to be parameter of bandwidth is different when compared with various densities classified. Finally, it was real data from the general blood cancer disease and style simulation application, as it was reached that way (KDA - SCV) is best when using the above standard compared with other methods because it gave the misclassification rate least.in the practical side results showed in such a way that nine people were the first (n1... n9) of the first group are infected with disease among 50 people is infected and 12 people from the second group infected with the Lisu people living with and they (n45... n50 and n1... n6 ).

مقارنة بعض الطرائق اللبية في تقدير نماذج الانحدار اللامعلمي بوجود بيانات تامة وغير تامة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods For Kernel Models In Complete And Incomplete Data

Author name: سعد كاظم حمزة
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | مناف يوسف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان استخدام النماذج المعلمية يتطلب العديد من الشروط الاولية التي يجب توافرها لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثون الى البحث عن نماذج اقل صرامة من النماذج المعلمية وتمثلت هذه النماذج بالنماذج ال | Using of parametric models require a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models. One of nonparametric methods important for estimating nonparametric regression function known as (kernel estimation) to be used for estimating any statistical function which is (smooth estimator) free of disorders modifying the observations and approximating estimated regression function to real nonparametric regression function. Hence, the researcher showed some kernel methods to estimate the nonparametric regression function in both cases complete data (FNW, FLLS, VNW, VLLS) and incomplete data (FSNW, VSNW, FINW, VINW, FSLLS, VSLLS, FILLS, VILLS) and compared them through the simulation method as well as using different models and different sizes of samples and variants. From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best smoother was (FLLS) by using the first model, while by using the second model, it was shown that the best smoother was (VLLS) and in the third model was (VNW). In case of incomplete data, the best smoother was (VSLLS) by using the first and second models while by using the third model, the best smoother was (VSNW)

الاتساق الذاتي وتحليل المكونات الرئيسة == The Self - Consistency And Principal Component'S Analysis

Author name: سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعني عبارة " الاتساق - الذاتي " اختبارا لمحور المكونات الرئيسة عندما يرتكز التوزيع على المحور الذي يعطي تقريبا بسيطا للتوزيع الاصلي متعدد المتغيرات.جرت عملية الاختبار بفحص نقص المطابقة Lack of Fit Test في ضوء طريقة البوتستراب (Bootstrap ) اي ( تكرار ا | The term " Self - Consistency " means ; examine the Self - consistency of a principal components axis : when a distribution is centered on a principal component axis, which provides a simple straight line approximation to a multivariate distribution.A principal component axis of a random vector X; is self - consistent if each point on the axis corresponds to the mean of X given that X projects orthogonally on to that point.this examination is done by " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test applied on to two kinds of data set (real and simulation) with different samples (small, medium, large),depending on the probability values for getting levels of significance (to assess the self - consistency of principal component axis) which is based on the frame work of the data set, whether it will be true (towards to the elliptical form for the multivariate normal distribution) or generated data set using the restrictive simulation ( towards to the asymptotic spherical form for multivariate normal distribution ) that's for estimating the self - consistency by the hypothesis ;Hk : Yk is self - consistent for Xprincipal component analysis for factor analysis is use with the aim of analyzing the large number of variables and their effective factors by the factor rotation procedure which is assumes also the multivariate normal distribution, with proposed technique, based on the smallest column on X for different sizes of samples ( small " 5 - 20 " , medium " 25 - 50 ", and large " 60 - 100 ").High level of fit, is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit" test in all sample size for all research variable's; with little difference and the best for male group of the results for female group on the size ( 5 - 35 ) , conversely for another size's.and also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the small sample size ( 5 - 20 ) for true data set using direct oblimin rotation method for male group, in the medium sample size ( 25 - 50) using the same method with direct method( None) for female group.In generated data set by normal restricted simulation technique, also high level of fit is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test in all sample size's and for all sample Size's (small, medium, large) and for tow group's (male, female), which indicate to the usefulness of using the restricted simulation technique to take pure data set, and the model with high level of stationary.also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the different sample size's, using the varimax rotation method for tow Group's (male, female), the two method's ( none, direct oblimin rotation) in some of sample size's which refers to corresponding the normal stat with varimax rotation method ,that is well known of its object for simplified explaining the factor matrix by maximization the loading variance

مقارنة اسلوب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول == A Comparison of Bayesian Approach With Another Methods To Estimate Reliability Function For Pareto Distribution of The First Kind

Author name: ستار محمد صالح
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول (Pareto Distribution of the First Kind) في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات وفي حالة عدم توافرها وتم توظيف اسلوب المحاكاة (Simulation) بطريقة مونت كارلو (Mont - Carlo) للمقارنة بين طرا | In this dissertation, an estimation of reliability function for the Pareto Distribution of the First Kind has been done in the case of exists a prior information and not exists. A simulation approach by Mont - Carlo method is used to comparisons between the methods of estimation to find the best method of estimation this function. To realizes the object of search, the search is divided into four chapters. The first chapter contain an introduction, object of search and the review of literature. The second chapter contain the theoretical part. The third chapter include the experimental part, and finally the fourth chapter include the conclusions that researcher find they and recommendations suggested from him about the search. The researcher find that the Bayes approach is the best in estimation of reliability function comparing with the other method of estimation through depending on the two statistical measurements integral Mean Squared error (IMSE), and integral Mean Absolute percentage error (IMAPE).

تحليل البيانات الثنائية لدراسة العوامل المؤثرة في حدوث التشوهات الولادية في مستشفى البصرة للنسائية والاطفال == Analysis of Binary Data : A Study of Factors Affecting Birthdefects In Basrah Hospital For Maternity & Children

Author name: ساهر حسين زين الثعلبي
Supervisor name: زهرة حسن عباس التميمي | عبد الكريم حسين صبر الجاروري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Basrah can be considered as a city that has been suffering form pollution more than any other city in the world of today. This is due to the successive wars it has undergone, the waste of the petroleum, gas, and petrochemical factories leave behind as well as the electric power generating firms this city contains. Furthermore, the location of Basrah by the sea has made the city liable to have epidemics, diseases, and birth defect. The phenomenon of distorted births is but the focus of this thesis.The researcher draws the attention of those undertaking direct or indirect responsibility so as to arrive at appropriate basic solutions. This study is an attempt at pinpointing the factors that directly or indirectly lead to the distorted births in Iraq in general, and in the city of Basrah in particular. Statistics is in order. The hypothesis of this study is that radiation may be the most serious cause of birth distortion. To verify this very hypothesis, the city of Basrah is chosen as the population and The Basrah Hospital for Maternity and children as the sample that covers the files or reports of the new - born babies during the period January - April, 2007. This sample is called " sample A". This is on the one hand. On the other hand, a special form is developed by the researcher and it is this form that forms "Sample B".Since the data collected is of a binary or dichotomous type, it is concerned with whether there is some birth distortion or not. That is why the dependable variable is referred to by 1 or 0 respectively. This type of variable is often indicated to by responding with ither "Yes", if there birth distortion; or "No" hen there is no birth distortion in medicine research. Statistically speaking, the SPSS ready - made program has been applied to data. This program has been used in social sciences and medicine research with high accuracy. The present research worker has applied a logistic model or pattern so as to study the factors that influence the occurrence of birth distortion. Among the results arrived at by the researcher is the residence of the parents Thisresult confirms the hypothesis that states that the regions exposed to the uranium radiation plays an important role in spreading birth distortion. Relatives have also proved to be influential and this is what is referred to as the hereditary or genetics variable. Finally, Rh factor is very effective in this respect. For this reason, the researcher supports all the calls for the authorities of both the public and private sectors at regional national and international levels urging them to do all they can to save the society catastrophic errors

مقارنة الاساليب المستخدمة في تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة مع جانب تطبيقي == The Comparison of Methods Used In Determining The Principal Components Number With An Applied Aspect

Author name: زينة ياوز عبد القادر
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: استخدم تحليل المركبات الرئيسة في تحليل الكثير من الظواهر الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، ومن هذه الظواهر اخترنا ظاهرة تخص شريحة واسعة من مجتمعنا الا وهي ظاهرة تاخر حصول التدريسي الجامعي على اللقب العلمي التالي، ولان تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة الداخلة في تحليل ا | The principal components analysis is used in analyzing many economic and social phenomena; and one of them is related to a large group in our society who are the university instructors. This phenomenon is the delay occurred in getting university instructor to his next scientific title. And as the determination of the principal components number inside the principal components depends on using many methods, we have compared between three of these methods that are : (BARTLETT, SCREE DIAGRAM, JOLLIFFE). We concluded that JOLLIFFE method was the best one in analyzing the studying phenomenon data among these three methods, we found the most distinguishing factors effecting on the phenomenon was (the number of the lectures the university instructor has, the administrative routine, the entertainment activities, family situation, shortage in academic staff, pages number, the use of the internet and the political attitude). So , we should begin with treating these factors as a first step for motivating university instructor to develop his thinking capabilities.

تحليل التجارب ثنائية العوامل المتزنة وغير المتزنة لبيان اثر عاملين على بعض صفات محصول الشلب في العراق

Author name: زينة ابراهيم حسن رشيد
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | احمد شهاب احمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان التجربة العاملية (التي تهتم في وقت واحد وتجربة واحدة بدراسة عاملين فاكثر ),اذ ان لكل عامل مستويات ,وبتوافيق مستويات العوامل تتشكل المعالجات العاملية , هذه التجربة لها اهمية كبيرة في الجوانب التطبيقية وتتسم بالمزايا : - 1انها تسهم في تقلي | 1. It contributes to reduce the cost, time, efforts, and experimental units as a result of the implementation of a single experiment, rather than two or more experiments.2. Provide us by information of the main effects of factors and the effects of interactions of these factors.3. The possibility to compare all different combinations of two or factors to be studied.4. These experiments provide an opportunity to compare the levels of each factor separately, as if the experiment was devoted to him alone.Therefore, the information that we get from factorial experiments always be more perfect and realistic than those we get from single - factor experiments.The factorial experiments held by adopting equilibrium that is oriented common and natural , it might generated cases of unbalance ( what is allocated of the number of plots for each uneven factorial treatment), which may be done on purpose by the researcher (performing the experiment) or it may be due to lack of materials or resources, which leads to identify groups of processing that will be dealt with, or for other reasons like damage or loss pieces or results of experimental subject to certain processing. Such situations cause them a problem of how to analysis it, so the goal of this message is to research deeper theoretically to contribute in find solutions for the research problem and the vast knowing of the analysis methods of the balanced and unbalanced factorial experiments, with discussing the possibility of propose a method or technique to analysis this case. since been in separate theoretical aspect of this message addressed to several ways in addition to provide a proposed way for analysis. The theoretical beside the practical aspects has been improved (Chapter three) to take an advantage of a realistic data experiments (not analyzed) carried out with the Public Board for Agricultural Research (the party was made contract with) where the experiment has been analyzed (balanced and unbalanced factorials) to study the impact of the rice verities factor and also the distances of planting the rice for many characters of the rice crops, as well as study the impact factor rice varieties and planting dates factor on some of the qualities of the rice crop has implemented in Mashkhab station in the province of Najaf, and we used the methods of the analysis presented in addition to the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the moral of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are available to use each method of analysis and the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the significant of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are made available to use all method of methods of analysis and the suggested method was as as follows : 1 - perferred to use method frequencies the expected cell in the case of that the data is unbalanced and semi - proportional.2 - perferred to use method un weighted means in the case of that the data is unbalanced and disproportional.3 - perferred to use method of harmonic mean in the case of that the data is unbalanced and two case proportional and disproportional.4 - prefer to using the suggested method (median method ) in the event that the data is is unbalanced and disproportional.5 - prefer to data analysis unbalanced without trying to estimate missing values.

دراسة تحليلية لتصاميم تجارب القطع المنشقة SPED والقطاعات المنشقة SBED مع تطبيق عملي == Analytic Study For Split Plot Experimental Design (SPED) And Split Block Experimental Design (SBED) With Practical Application

Author name: زينب فالح حمزة
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان فكرة القطع المنشقة كانت قد وجدت لتضيف الى مزايا ومواصفات التجارب العاملية فوائد تطبيقية تصب في تركيز وتحسين دقة واهمية دراسة تاثيرات العوامل والتفاعلات بينها كونها تحوي اكثر من مصدر للخطا العشوائي ونظرا لما نالته هذه الفكرة من توسع واضافات كثيرة في الج | The idea of split - plot had been found to add to the advantages of factorial experiments and specification of practical interest is in the focus and improving the accuracy and the importance of studying the effects of factors and interactions between them. they contain more than one source of random error because of the indiscriminate earned by the idea of expansion and additions in many theoretical and practical contribution to the diversity and evolution with approved design and since we have observed that the practical uses in our country , though many of it's but limited to the adoption of the idea of split - plot design or split - split only, and purpose of contributing to clarify and depend the understanding and importance in the practical aspects of these additions which has focused the aim of this research (thesis) to provide in depth analytical study of some of the designs , practiculary designs of split - plot and desins of split - Block and what could be concluded from the ideas of the designs that has practical benefits , especially in the agricultural field was taken as the theoretical aspects (models , plans , analysis ) to design of ,split - plots , split - plots systematic arrangement whole plots, split - plot in time & and analysis of Covariance and the design of split - Blokes and the designs of split - split plots & the design of combination between split - plots & split Block then the practical application had been don using The experiments in agricultural (including rice crop ,and crop of peas) Resulted modern & variety data for the year 2008 in the rice research station in Mashkhab in ALnajaf governorate in addition to data for chick pea crop obtained from the station of Rabiaa where the data were analyzed using (SAS - stetictical analysis system). the results of analysis showed that the variety Anbar 33 is the best compared to other varieties for rice crop , and the age 27 day is the best compared to other ages. The designs that have not been able to conducted, which is also not present previously in our country has been adopting the idea of simulation usin visual basic Program, as shown in the appendices ( program 1,2) done by the researcher deals the design of combination between the split _ plots and split Blocks compare it with _the design split _split plot - and the program no(2) that concerned designing split Blocks. The analysis Results for both designs performed to be used in agricultural experiment as it provides high accuracy.

بناء نموذج محاكاة لتحسين اداء انشطة مركز اورام سرطان البصرة == Building A Simulation Model To Improve The Performance of Activities of The Basrah Cancer Tumors Center

Author name: ريسان عبد الامام زعلان
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر | جواد كاظم العلي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Basrah Tumor Center is of the most important medical specialized in the field of treating cancer in the south region of Iraq but due to the very great demands of the patients which is increased year by year , it is increased the stress on the capacities of the center materially and in regards to manpower [ doctors, nurses, beds Laboratory systems and medicines] effecting considerably in providing health treatment performance accurately at all facilitations of the irrelevant to the nature of patients reviewed this center thus it is necessitated to deal with this problem by a scientific and advanced mode assisting the center to upgrade his performance towards the best and the necessary to improve the level of its treatment. Upon this base , it is applied the technique of discrete accident simulation by following the mode of upcoming event and Mont Carlo in designing the model on computer representing Basrah Tumor Center in real world detecting the deficiency points and attempt to improve it as well as forecasting with optimist number of doctors, nurses, beds and laboratory systems and instruments leading to lessening the average time of waiting and increasing the means of treatment time providing satisfactory number of beds and laboratory systems and instruments contributing in improving treatment performance at the center at all and applying the model as an experimental tool for number of scenarios and then electing the optimist scenario leading to upgrading the center to theoptimist state in regards to its performance.This study concluded a group of findings the most important of which are : 1. The possibility of the model to represent the tumor center in real world due to the random nature of processes of accessing to the service is occurred and the movement process which is occurred in the suitable time for queues.2. The study showed the inconsideration for the number of doctors so that number of doctors at the tumor clinic is not sufficient nor equivalent with the continuous increment with number of infections and number of patients especially if the situation is stand as in past years without improvement as the study indicated it would never paid the service for half number of patient in 2011 in case the manpower and material possibilities are still in the same conditions without improvement.3. The ability of the model to identify the optimist number of doctors, nurses, beds and laboratory systems and instruments for the years from 2007 through 2011. The study provided a group of recommendation the most important of which : The necessity of applying the findings of the model in re - forming the organization of the center by providing optimist number of doctors, beds, and health cadre as to it is contributed in solving the problems center is suffered from improving treatment performance at all departments of the center.

استعمال الانتروبي مع طرائق اخرى في تقدير دالة بقاء توزيع كاما العام للسكان في العراق == Use The Entropy With Other Methods In Estimating The Survival Function of Generalized Gamma Distribution To The Population

Author name: رغدة زياد طارق العبيدي
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تستخدم جداول الحياة في مجالات عديدة في البحوث الديموغرافية والصحية وتمثل مؤشرا هاما للوفاة في المجتمع. ويتم احتساب جداول الحياة من بيانات الوفيات لسنة معينة للمجتمع السكاني، لذا فهو يعبر عن حالة الوفاة للمجتمع.وهناك نوعين من جداول الحياة وهي : (جداول الح | Life tables used in many fields in the demographic and health research is an important predictor of death in population. Then, calculated life tables of mortality data for a particular year the population of the community, so it reflects the rate of death of the community in somehow. There are two types of life tables, called : (Complete Life tables) and were based on the age at death on the basis of single - year age groups (0,1, 2,3,..., 81+) and were usually obtained in a manner comprehensive survey or census in order to provide detailed information on the population. The second type called (Abridged life tables) were assumed from equal death rate for ages converged with each other and are therefore based on the age at death on the five - year age groups (0 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 15,..., 80+) which is different from its predecessor and less accuracy than is obtained in a manner sample survey. In the absence of census of our beloved Iraq, where the last census was in (1997), so be getting the calculated probability of survival through accurate (survival function) within the life tables for single - year age groups was extremely difficult and mired with disorder problems you need to mathematical treatment in accordance with the distribution of probabilistic statistical but it's distributed data showed the distribution of the Generalized Gamma : (GG) with three parameters as the best fit of the data, with this distribution in turn includes the integration of (incomplete gamma function) is implicitly making it more difficult traditional appreciation. So two major goals were arise in this thesis.The first goal of a practical application goal, using (Sprague multipliers) to convert a five - year age groups into single age. The second goal of theory using the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : (POME) in assessing the function of survival and to deal and overcome the turmoil and volatility demographic data collected from (Iraq Household Socio - Economic Survey : IHSES II 2012). This thesis had studied the function estimating survival data mentioned above on two parts : the first part, parametric estimation methods which is the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : POME, the Classical method is the Maximum Likelihood : ML. The second part, has included nonparametric method to estimate survival function by nonparametric method (Kernel Smoothing) been used as (Gaussian function). The estimation methods were compared using statistical criteria are the root mean squares error (RMSE), and the average absolute percentage error (MAPE). Among the most important conclusions, was the preference for a ML method and kernel method when a simulation to get the proportions views of the probability distribution (GG) and in a manner Inverse Transformation Method : ITM only single - year age groups sized by (n = 81) and repeat the experiment (300) replicates. As well as to reach that way entropy is the best method dealt with five - year age groups, where in the case of single - year age groups, the nonparametric kernel was best in when the practical application part. Life tables using MORTPAK program as it has been considered survival function results (UN) calculated values real and comparing the methods of the three appreciation. One of the main recommendations, the use of the (POME) to overcome the turmoil of demographic data, especially a five - year age groups and the use of Sprague data conversion from five - year age groups to transactions single - year age groups and the use of nonparametric method of kernel to assess the function of survival of the single - year age groups and entropy for five - year age groups data.

تقويم بيانات الوفيات في العراق وتقدير بعض مؤشراتها == Evaluating Mortality Data In Iraq And Estimating Some Related Indices

Author name: رشا عادل سعيد
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد اتسع نطاق الدراسات الاحصائية ليشمل العديد من الميادين والقطاعات ومن ضمنها قطاع السكان، حيث اهتم الباحثون بدراسة مشاكل التعداد والقياسات المتعلقة بقطاع السكان كالولادات والوفيات والهجرة، وذلك لما لها من اهمية كبرى في مجال الادارة والتخطيط.فجاء هذا ا | The scope of statistical studies has been extended to consist many sectors. One of these sectors is population studies.The researchers studied the problems of census , and data collection related to population (i.e. Births , deaths and migration) , which is considered of great importance in the field of planning , management and development studies. This study comes as a part of the studies focused on demographic characteristics and concentrated on mortality , which is often faced by the problems of incomplete and incorrect data , mainly the lack of mortality records specially in developing countries. The study focused on mortality data in Iraq during the period 1987 - 1997 , aiming at evaluating and estimating some of the related indices such as (life expectancy at birth , age - specific mortality rates , etc.).The study excluded the region of Kurdstan (Arbil , Dohok and Sulaymania) because this region was not included in 1997 census moreover the difficulties in obtaining registered deaths in this region since 1991. The study compares three methods for estimating infant and child mortality rates (i.e. Brass method , Feeney method for estimating infant mortality and Preston - Palloni method) the study concluded that Brass method is the most relevant for estimating infant and child mortality in the light of the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. By using 1997 census data in Iraq and depending on UN. Model for developing countries (general model) , the study achieved to the adjustment of mortality probability (Logit method). In dealing with mortality for (over 5 years old persons) , three methods were compared for estimating completeness of recorded deaths (i.e. Brass growth balance method , Preston - Coale method and Bennett - Horiuchi method) based on the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. It was found that there was no reason for preferring one method on another , therefore , the three mentioned methods were used depending on registered deaths (collected from Ministry of Health data) for the period 1987 - 1997. The study results showed that Brass growth balance method was not relevant for the studied mortality data in the Iraqi society. therefore , its results were neglected , and the results of mathematical mean of Preston - Coale method and Bennet - Horiuchi method were considered as representative of completeness of recorded deaths. It was found (0.725) for males and (0.845) for females.In order to estimate some mortality indices , bridged life tables were built for the years 1997 and 2002 for males and females in Iraq. The analysis showed the rise of life expectancy at birth about (1.2) years for males and (1.3) years for females during the above mentioned period.Finally , the study discuses its conclusions and recommendations.

دراسة نظرية وتطبيقية لشبكات بيرت الاحتمالية

Author name: ربى رشيد عبد الرحمن الجلبي
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر شبكات الاعمال من الادوات المهمة في التخطيط والسيطرة على مراقبة تنفيذ المشاريع باقل كلفة ووقت ممكن اذا ما توفرت الموارد التي تغطي حاجة تلك المشاريع.ونظرا لاهمية موضوع شبكات الاعمال ارتاينا البحث فيه بهدف التوصل الى طريقة لحساب وقت انجاز المشروع الك | Networks are considers as the most important instruments in the planning are controlling probation of projects implementation with minimal cost and time if there are sufficient resources cover the need of these projects.And respect to the importance of the topic regarding networks, we saw the search in it so as to reach method for calculating time of implementation of the total project in Probabilistic PERT networks, which are different from PERT networks because each stage in Probabilistic PERT networks represent random variable which has certain probabilistic distribution. So, time of implementation of the project will be another random variable, while in PERT method the times being already specified for each stage. We shall calculating this time after finding the total probability function for networks of the project.Moreover, we shall perform striking the necessary time to doing PERT network by application Fulkerson method which depends on every possible investigations to perform the project’s stages, which concentrate on that which have the maximum possibility of an event, and so the Fulkerson method being approximation to that which depends upon the probability function, but we shall concentrate in our research on the probability function because it gives additional indicators to the performing time. This will appears as clear through comparing the results that we shall reach after application the two methods. Where this was applied practical in one of our productive enterprises and it is the public enterprise of leather industries.According to above cited, we divided a thesis into four chapters; the first, takes the introduction and the objective of the probabilistic PERT networks topic as well as topic’s background, while the second chapter takes the theoretical aspect of the topic that encompass displaying method of PERT and an analysis that depend upon beta distribution besides displaying the symbols used in Fulkerson’s method to finding the expected time for implementation of the total project and finding variance of time regarding the total implementation and then estimating the probability function to the project time. The third chapter takes an applied aspect of the topic, so after gathering data, we tested it for conformity goodness of fit and then, we calculated mean and variance of the time regarding project total performing according to PERT and Fulkerson methods, and then we have finding the mean using probability function after estimate it.The most important what we have reached from the conclusions and the recommendations we shall display it in the fourth chapter of the thesis

حول تصاميم القطع المخططة

Author name: داليا هشام عبد الرحمن الشيخلي
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لا شك فيه ان للتجارب العاملية اهمية كبيرة في دراسة تاثيرات العوامل الرئيسية وتفاعلاتها، وتعد تجارب القطع الشريطية او المخططة Strip - plot Experiments او ما يسمى بتجارب القطاعات المنشقة split - Block Experiments احدى فروع او حالات التجارب العاملية حيث | There is no suspicion that the practical experiment have a great importance in studying the major factors and their activities ,and the Strip - Plot experiment or what it called Split - Block experiment considered as one of the practical experiments brunches where the steps are divided in the Analyzing Differentiation Diagram to three combinations , the first one is for the queues, the second one is for the colons, and the third one is for the experimental units which produced from crossing the queue with the colon with noticed that the horizontal and vertical strips should be in a vertical line with each other so there is no relation between their sizes. The levels of one factor normally distribute randomly over the strips of the queues and the levels of the other factor, and also randomly over the strips of the colons. By changing the randomization category (put the restrictions on the way of randomization) many kinds of designing the Strip - Plot appears. Hence, the aim of this research came to put the spot on these categories and put their mathematics sample, the statistical analyzing of each category, their usage’s, their characteristics, their features and their standard mistakes and to test the differences between the treatments average by using the method of Least Significant Differences. We cleared how to treat the problem of the one replication (because of loosing the mistakes) to test hypotheses by two methods. Finally we applying the kinds of the strip - plot designs practically standing on an experiment diagrams done in Abo Guraib Station yield that belong to Eebaa Center For Agricultural Researches. The program was written in ( Visual Basic ) language to make the statistic analysis for these experiments and applying practically the treatment of the repetition one.

تقلبات سعر صرف الدينار العراقي للمدة من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005 والتنبؤ بسعره في المستقبل باستخدام سلاسل ماركوف == Fluctuating of The Iraqi Dinerexchange Rate Since 1996 Until Mid 2005 And Forecasting It In The Future By Using Markov Chains

Author name: خليل برهان الدين فرمان السعدي
Supervisor name: صباح منفي رضا الشمري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان هذا البحث هو دراسة احصائية اقتصادية في مجال سعرالصرف بدراسته من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005، ويتلخص بهذه العبارة (( الحاضر جني الماضي والمستقبل غرس الحاضر)) وهو محاولة متواضعة لبلورة هذا السعرفي اسلوب علمي احصائي، وكانت سلاسل ماركوف خير معبرعن ذلك | This research is considered as a first statistical and economic study in the field of Exchange rate during the period from 1996 till midd 2005. It could be summarized with this sentence (present is the fruit of the past and the future is the plantation of present). Markov chains was used as a scientific statistical method in forecasting process being one of the easiest models. When the data at present is represented in three conditions (i.e high, low, and stable) and between the past, present and future, it was possible to achieve the ideal method in the analysis by using Maximum Likelihood method and Ordinary Least Square method in estimating transitional probabilities matrix. The probability values have been put for all stages and for both methods in one table. The period was divided to three phases according to the political circumstances in Iraq in addition to general phase. The results of the matrices were clean and independent when multiplied by (n) times as shown in attached annexes and in stationary distribution vector, when the probability values were stable for the three cases in definite number and for each phase. The conclusions achieved in the third phase and the possible study to rise Iraqi Diner value to a certain level has been coincided. Finally , the study submitted some useful recommenda - tions.

استعمال بعض تصاميم التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة بالقياسات المكررة على مرض الثلاسيميا في محافظة واسط == Use Some Factorial Design of Experiments And Nested - Factorial By Repeated Measurements On Thalassemia In Wasit Governorate

Author name: حيدر رائد طالب
Supervisor name: قيـس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: انصب هدف الرسالة في امرين على درجة من الاهمية وهما اولا دراسة تحليلية لطبيعة التجارب بالقياسات المكررة لعدة تصاميم والتركيز على التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة وبناء النماذج الرياضية الخطية لهذه التجارب الذي يعتمد علية التحليل. لقد تم استعمال الط | Focused message in a two objective on the degree of importance and them first analytical Study to the nature of repeated measurements experiments for several designs and focus on the Nested - Factor Experiments and build linear mathematical models for these experiments upon which the analysis. It has been used several methods parametric to analysis these types of designs. which are difficult to analyze in sometimes because of the not provide conditions analysis of variance for repeated measurements experiments. The second objective of the message is application this kind of experience in the medical sector by studying a particular phenomenon characterized by a repeated measurements represented Thalassemia in Wasit province. Where he was studying three types of experiments the existence of a repeated measurements It is experiments with a one factor and have a repeated measurements on the same element, Factorial Experiment qxp repeated measurements on one factor, and Nested - Factorial experiment repeated measurements on one factor. As well as the use of methods of transfer to ranks (Rank Transformation) as one of the solutions that have made conditions analysis of variance to experiments measurements repeated of (distribution Normal random and independent for experimental error, homogeneity of variances, the lack of correlation between the averages and variances, spherical). Satisfactory because the transfer to ranks makes the data on the most homogeneous and normal, although we have identified a condition analysis of variance exclusively for the purpose of comparison by the value of the P - Value. The data can be described about Thalassemia in Wasit as follows : were assessed Standards quantities of iron (Fe) in the letter, groups this data classified into two groups, the first group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) and who have been subjected to the first chemotherapy (axja) by mouth for four treatment cycles (treatments) of each period lasts 30 days , and the second group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) who were exposed to second chemotherapy (Desferal) by injection into the skin or muscle of four treatment cycles (treatments), where each treatment cycle lasts 30 days. the most important conclusions that have been reached is that the Data Transformation by ranks led to the provision of analysis of variance conditions for experiments repeated measurements distribution the normal errors and homogeneity of variances and correlation between mean and variance, as well as a spherical condition. Through the four applications we believe that giving the first dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time and this type of treatment is used when high amounts of iron ratio. As well as when you give the second dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time, but at rates lower than the first treatment and this type of treatment is used when a weak proportion of iron in the blood of the patient.

مقارنة بين طرائق تقدير انحدار الحرف العامة في معالجة مشكلة التعدد الخطي شبه التام مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparisons Among The Generalized Ridge Regression Methods of Estimators Under Multicollinearity Problem With A Praxis

Author name: حنين مراد يوسف الصالحي
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يلقى موضوع خرق احد فروض الانحدار اهتماما واسعا وواضحا في معظم الدراسات لذلك تنبع اهمية هذا البحث من خلال الكشف عن احد هذه الفروض ومعالجتها والمتمثلة بـ وجود علاقة خطية بين اثنين او اكثر من المتغيرات التوضيحية والتي تدعى بمشكلة التعدد الخطي (Multicollinea | The violation of regression assumptions is one of the interesting topics in many fields. This thesis deals with multicollinearity problem by using some of generalized ridge regression methods (GRR, MJR, GJR, GL, AUGRR, and AUGL) as well as our proposed method (Almost unbiased Generalized Jackknife Ridge) (AUGJR). In addition, these methods are compared with parameter (k) in ridge and parameter (Liu D). These methods are evaluated based on the mean squared error (MSE) to obtain the best method of these methods with the suitable parameter.To evaluate these methods, we use simulation studies by using the R statistical program. Five variables are simulated with different sample sizes (n=15,20,60,300), different variances (0.16,0.13,0.18) and different correlation coefficients (r=0.16,0.13 and 0.18) with (s=10 and 2). The results show that AUGL, AUGJR and AUGRR are the best methods in terms of the MSE. The differences are very small among them. The methods are also evaluated based on real data example (Rail transport for the passengers and cargo), which is obtained from Iraqi Ministry of Planning.We first detected the problem of multicollinearity by using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Condition Index (CI). Then, we build a model of revenue for transportation after they have been estimating its features at the best methods.

افضل طرائق المعاينة في تقدير اعداد النخيل في محافظة البصرة == Optimum Sampling To Estimate Date Palm In Basrah Governorate

Author name: حنان سعيد مالك الراوي
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي | عدنان شهاب حمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان لكل اسلوب من اساليب المعاينة مزايا ومبررات في استخدامه، وغالبا ماترتبط عملية اختيار اسلوب المعاينة بجانبين اساسيين، اولهما معيار التجانس بين المفردات سواء على المستوى الكلي ام على مستوى اجزاء(او مجاميع) من المجتمع، وثانيهما الامكانات المتا | There is no doubt that each technique of sampling techniques has advantages and reason for using it, and mostly the correlation of choosing sampling technique with a essential two sides, first of them is the standard of homogenous between units as for all population, and the second one is the abilities that are available to fulfills survey. And in using Stratified Random Sampling Technique in evaluating the suitable population to apply an important role to get a high efficiency estimator to compare with other Sampling design. As the target of this searching is to get the best ways that increase the accurate estimation of the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate and in using different kind of sampling estimator, the comparison has been done between the mean variance of Simple Random Sampling and the mean variance of the Stratified Random Sampling, and it is clear in the comparative results hat using Stratified Random Sampling give the best estimation. The determination of strata boundaries (strata formation) have interested role in obtaining efficient estimators, several strategies of strata formation were constructed, it is proved that the approximated frequency strategy at ?= ½ is the most efficient, researchers discussed developing this strategy through using different values of (?), or different sample allocations. In this searching three approximately frequency had been applied , and to divide the population into strata and point out the optimum limit strata, and the sample allocation has been determined by using Neyman distribution. And it is clear in the result that using the approximated frequency is the nearest and efficient to estimate the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate, by counting the Stratification mean variance and the stratification mean for the three approximated frequency. And the reason to know wither the Stratified Random Sampling is efficient and better than the Simple Random Sampling in evaluating the Date Palms number the experiment of the hypothesis between two population has been used, the results of that experiment show the difference between the two means that lead to reject the Null hypothesis and to accept the Alternative hypothesis, according to this the search recommended to use the Stratified Random Sampling according to the new divided stratification by using frequency, taking into consideration using Neyman distribution o determine sample size and sample allocation

التحليل الاحصائي لتجارب القياسات المكررة للبيانات المصنفة == The Statistical Analysis For Experimental The Categorical Data of Repeated Measurement

Author name: حلا كاظم عبيد الصبيحاوي
Supervisor name: سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: حيث تم استعمال اختبار (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) على بيانات ذات معالجتين وكل معالجة بمستويين المتمثلة ببيانات مرض ضغط الدم ولدوائين وكل دواء بمستويين (ملائم وغير ملائم) ومن خلال الجانب التطبيقي تم الو | In this dissertation the study have concentrated on the use of repeated measurements tests of catcorigal data, where we used (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) tests on two treatments data, and every treatments with two levels which represent raised blood pressure data, and for two medications, each medication with two levels (appropriate and inappropriate), through the practical aspect, we concluded that the ratio of response for the two medication are the same. Also we used (Ireland & Ku & Kullback, Bhapkar, Stuart) tests on data with two treatments, each treatment has more than two levels that represent data of fifth grade (High school) for Arabic text book through years (2001 - 2004) in sumer high school, in which the first treatment represents the students grades in mid term exam, and the second treatment represented the student grades in final exam, through the practical aspect we gained an equivalent results in the previously mentioned methods (in which the students levels in mid term exam equivalent to that in final exam). We also used (Ireland & Kullback, Cochran) tests and weighted least squares (WLS) tests on three treatments data in which every treatment has two levels that represents data of student in the same grade, and in the same years for English text book in which the first treatment represents the first term average, and the second treatment represents the student's grade in mid year, and the third treatment represents the average of second term. And for two levels (Pass and failed), through the applicative of these test on these data we concluded that the level of any given student in first term is equal to the level in mid year and it's also equal to that in second term.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس باستخدام عينات مراقبة من النوع الثاني

Author name: حلا سلمان فرحان
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس اخذين بنظر الاعتبار وجود عينات مراقبة((Censored Data من النوع الثاني في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات بشكل دالة احتمالية اولية مشتركة لكل من معلمتي الشكل والقياس,حيث تم افتراضها حسب اسلوب الباحث(Jef | In this study have been estimated the survival function to Lomax distribution considering there was censored data (second Type) just in case if a primitive information were available about the indications as mutual primitive probability function for both : indications form & measure which assumed in order to method of the searcher (Jeffry) and also squared error loss function). So measured estimated pez S*(t) for survival function S (t) is the conditional expectation function S*(t) =E[S (t)/X].It has been used approximated methods to measure them because It is hard : to measure the complementary of numerator and denominator in a mathematics form by using Bayes method. One of these methods is the method of the searcher ( Lindley) while the other method was return to ( Tierrney and Kadon).In addition to methods formerly to estimate the survival function; the searcher has used the Shrinkage method. While she used the maximum likelihood method as a usual method for those which did not depend on the primitive information because the estimated thing had fixed quality.So, all this to make the comparison between these methods and the oldest one through simulation style by Mont - Carlo to get new estimation which carried the wanted qualities in the perfect estimated to get specific results : to choose the suitable estimation method.The searcher hade made the bayes (lomax distribution survival function) as the lindley manner was the best among the other manners to estimate lomax distribution survival function ,on general ;while the manner of the maximum likelihood method was the best manner among to other estimated manners for tiny simple size on private.

مقارنة فترة الثقة مع الفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل مع تـطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Confidence Interval With Bayesian Interval For The Linear Compination of Nest Factor Means (With Application)

Author name: حسام موفق صبري الدليمي
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد دراسات المقارنة بين طرق تقدير المعلمات من الدراسات المهمة التي تاخذ حيزا واسعا في البحوث الاحصائية، لذلك تهدف هذه الدراسة الى اجراء مقارنة من خلال الفترات بين فترة الثقة والفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل في تصميم متداخل متزن لمرح | A Comparison studies among parameters estimation approaches are important studies that take a large space in statistical searches. So that the purpose of this study is to make a comparison through the intervals between the confidence interval and the Bayesian interval for linear combination of nest factor means in a two stage balanced nested design.The confidence interval was found by using an advance approach in inference called (Mixed Inference), and the Bayesian interval was found by using another approach in inference called (Bayesian Inference), then a comparison was happened between the two intervals (obviously the two kinds of inference).We apply this comparison on a real data experiment represent weights of vetch planet in (1998), and by using simulation. The results of the real data experiment and simulation shows an important conclusion which said that the confidence interval for linear combination of nest factor means is better than the Bayesian interval of the same linear combination for any suggestion confidence coefficient.Finally, An assumption study established to know the causes that leads to that important conclusion

تحليل التباين متعدد المتغيرات لتصميم القطع المنشقة - المنشقة == Multivariate Analysis of Varaince For Split - Split Plot Design

Author name: حسام عبد الرزاق رشيد البكري
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: This research work is a study of multivariate analysis of variance model (MANOVA) for the design of split - split plot to a complete randomized block. As it is an important method for determining whether the response variables are influenced with each other or in other words whether the correlation between the variables of a force such that it influence the decision taken concerning the applied hypothesis. When we don’t ignore the relationships which are created between the responses variables lead us to generalize the tests in the univariate analyses about the means of normal population to be changed to tests involving mean vectors responses taken from multivariate normal population. Ignoring the existing relationships between variables lead us to untrue conclusions, so in doing the (MANOVA) gives us a full picture of the experimental factors and their interaction in the experiment as a whole. The concentration on doing the (MANOVA) should not be at the expense of the study of the univariate analysis. So the research work involves the problem of heterogeneous in sub - sub plot variances, which is considered one of the important problems put forward by other researchers which may limit his work in special procedure. We are interested in solving this problem by using a univariate analysis procedure after splitting the error of sub - sub plot and then finding the standard deviation used in comparison testing between about the third factor (c). Then comparing them with the standard deviation used, if we assume the existence of homogeneity in variances of sub - sub plot.

مقارنة بعض طرائق التقدير اللا معلمية لنموذج الانحدار التجميعي المجزا باستعمال المحاكاة مع التطبيق == A Comparison of Some Nonparametric Estimation Methods of An Additive Quantile Regression Model Using Simulation With Application

Author name: جنان عبد الله عنبر
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان استعمال النماذج المعلمية يتطلب توافر معلومات كافية عن الظاهرة المدروسة مع معرفة المجتمع الذي سحبت منه العينة وان تكون معلماته معرفة لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثين الى البحث عن نماذج ا | Using of the parametric models requires a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models, so too many considerations have been made for the Nonparametric Regression, in the last years. The main reason of that was the researchers’ belief that pure parametric methods for estimating the regression curve have shortage with the flexibility needed for data analysis - especially the quantitative data - . With the progress made in computers, in both hardware and software, it has become possible to develop many of Nonparametric Regression Methods including the "Quantile Methods". In spite of that, the researcher see the most of papers and articles concern univariate case, where the researchers about bivariate case still with limited. In the other hand, the researches extension to multivariate case nonexistent in Iraq - in the scope of researcher’s knowledge - , which gives an extremely importance for the aim of this study, to bring attention for alternative methods or modified methods that can be efficient ones to improve the currently methods. Thus, the most important purpose of the research, is the use of Tow - Stages method, which helps the researchers to compute Nonparametric estimators for the components of Nonparametric models to avoid the curse of dimensionality.It divideds the components to set of points called "Quantiles" , then estimates the quantile function by one of the quantile methods we explained in this research, ( Marginal Integration, Backfitting, and Tow - Stages ). The simulation has been designed for the illustrated models and it has been checked about the estimation methods performance by using the Absolute Deviation Error (ADE) criterion, then compute the Average Absolute Deviation Error (AADE). From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best estimator was Tow - stages estimator in case of high correlation and / or high dimensions. To achieve the purpose of this research, the study has been divided into five chapters. Chapter one, consists of an introduction, the aim of the thesis under research, and a literature survey. Chapter two covers the parametric regression quantile estimation. While Chapter three devoted for Nonparametric estimations methods. Chapter four devoted for Simulation experiments and practical experiment with real data. Finally, Chapter five comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the research has recommended.

استعمال بعض النماذج الاحتمالية المنفردة والمركبة المبتورة لتحديد خصائص التعويضات الصحية في شركة التامين العراقية == Use Some Probability Single & Compound Truncated Models To Determining The Characteristics of Health Payments In The Iraqi Insurance Company

Author name: ثائرة نجم عبد الله الامير
Supervisor name: قيس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نظرا لعدم وجود بحث احصائي سابق لسلوك تعويضات التامين الصحي الذي يمثل النسبة الاكبر من التعويضات في عموم شركات التامين في العراق، تم اختيار هذا البحث وتطبيقه في شركة التامين العراقية.ولغرض تحديد افضل انموذج احتمالي يمثل تعويضات التامين الصحي، تم استعمال | Due to the lack of previous statistical research of the behavior of payments, specifically health insurance, which represents the largest proportion of payments in the general insurance companies in Iraq, this study were selected and applied in the Iraqi insurance company.To determine the best model represent the health insurance payments, we used two probability models determined through the initial detection for the distribution of the research sample by use (Easy Fit) program.One : single, a (Lognormal) for all sample views, and the other compound (Compound Weibull) at dividing research sample into small losses and large losses, and focused on the compound model in some detail in terms of drafting and its importance. With the application of the state of amputation in both the fact that the specific health payments from the top by two million diners in this company.Both models Parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the use of style (Newton - Raphson) to find these estimates. And then compare between models using standard (MSE). Was reached in general that the compound model is better than a single model in the representation of payments.
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