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مقارنة بعض الطرق الحصينة للمربعات الصغرى الجزئية == Compare Some of Robust Methods For Partial Least Squares

اسم المؤلف: ميسون علي رحمن المندلاوي
اسم المشرف: هلال عبود البياتي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2007
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: الحمد لله والصلاة والسلام على رسول الله سيدنا محمد (صلى الله عليه وسلم )وعلى اله وصحبه وسلم اما بعد...يتناول البحث استخدام انحدار المربعات الصغرى الجزئية PLS)) Partial Least Squares وهي تقنية انحدار خطي طورت للتعامل مع انحدارات ذات ابعاد عالية لمتغير وا | Partial least squares regression ( PLRS) is a linear regression technique developed to deal with high - dimensional regression and one or several response variables. In this paper we introduce robustified version of the SIMPLS algorithm being the leading PLRS algorithm because of its speed and efficiency. Because SIMPLS is based on the empirical cross - covariance matrix between the response variables and the regressors and on linear least squares regression, the results are affected by abnormal observations in the data set. Two robust methods covariance matrix for high - dimensional data and robust linear regression. We introduce robust RMSECV and RMSEP values for model calibration and model validation diagnostic plots are constructed to visualize and classify the outliers. Several simulation results and the analysis of real data sets show the effectiveness and the robustness of the approaches. Because RSIMPLS is roughly twice as fast as RSIMCD, it stands out as the overall best method.

بناء انموذج للمعاينة البيزية المفردة بافتراض مربع كاي كتوزيع مسبق == Constructing A Model For Bayesian Single Sampling Plan Assumed Chi - Squaar As A Prior Distribution

اسم المؤلف: ميسون حميد فرج محمد
اسم المشرف: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2007
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: يتضمن هذا البحث بناء انموذج لخطط المعاينة البيزية باستخدام نظرية القرار، هدف الانموذج التوصل الى معالم خطة بيز المفردة (n,c) حيث n تمثل حجم العينة، c تمثل عدد القبول الضروريان لفحص المنتوج واتخاذ قرار لرفض او قبول الدفعة. قمنا باشتقاق ومناقشة خصائص نظام خ | This research deals with the process of Constructing a model for Bayesian Single Sampling Plan by using decision making theory. The aim of this Model is to obtain the parameters (n,c) which represent Sample size (n) and acceptance number c, which are necessary to inspect the lot and to make a decision whether to accept or reject the product. We drive and discussed the properties of the system of single sampling attributes plan obtained from minimizing the average Expected cost under the assumption that cost decision is a linear function in lot size and sample size. The distribution of the sampling is a mixed Poisson distribution i.e, each lot produced is in Poisson Control but the process average varies from lot of anther according to frequency distribution which is assumed to be derived in the neighbor points of the break - even quality level. We explain all the notation and steps of obtained the total Expected cost of quality Control, which contain the item of cost (Cl,C2...C6) upon the decision of acceptance or rejection, and then how to solved mathematically using forward Variances function to reach the Optimal Parameters (n*,c*). Then the Optimal size of the Sample size is identified is linear function from square root of the lot size. Some auxiliary tables are given, Which represent the results we obtained which indicate that the prior distribution of quality is Chi - Square with m degree of freedom, we apply NP - Chart to make decision about process, we apply also the test of goodness of fit for testing the hypothesis.

بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات دالة المعولية لنموذج احتمالي مركب مع تطبيق عملي == Some Methods of Estimation Parameter Reliability Function of The Probability Model Compound With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: مهدي علي عبد الحسين الدريعي
اسم المشرف: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تعد التوزيعات الاحتمالية المركبة من التوزيعات الاحصائية التي كسبت اهمية متميزة في العقود الاخيرة وذلك لتطبيقاتها الواسعة في المجالات الهندسية والصناعية والتجارب الطبية والبايلوجية وبناء على ذلك فقد تم استعمال انموذج احتمالي مركب (الاسي - ويبل) ذي الثلاث | The probability distributions compound is important statistical distributions which gained importance and wide in recent decades, to the importance of their use in scientific fields, and at the Advanced has been addressed in this letter to the probabilistic compound model (exponential - Weibull) with three parameters and characteristics enjoyed by such possibility Writing probability density function and cumulative function and reliability function was used four different methods of estimating 1 - Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method2 - Percentiles Estimators Method3 - Least squares method4 - Weighted least squares methodAnd a favorable comparison between these estimators using simulation style through several experiences of one of the main users of statistical standards which is the mean squer error It was reached that the best way to estimate the reliability function is the Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method for having the lowest mean squer error.Or in the practical side it has conducted a practical application to real data taken from the State Company for Textile Industries in Wasit, which is for times of failure for machines textile department and assess the sample sized 101 machines communtiy 450 machines function of reliability with the use destined reached by a researcher at the experimental side, a Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method, and through the results turned out to estimate reliability function decreases gradually increase the time.

نموذج للتخطيط القوى العاملة : دراسة ميدانية في كليتي الطب والادارة والاقتصاد - جامعة البصرة == A Model For Manpower Planning A Survey In Medical & Admin. & Econ. Colleges University of Basrah

اسم المؤلف: منى طاهر غافل الربيعي
اسم المشرف: محمد عبود طاهر
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2006
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: It is difficult to recruit the manpower of lecturers to provide the University of Basrah with them. University of Basrah suffers from the problem of putting a planning system for manpower which taking into consideration the following three systems (supply of the lecturers, demand of the lecturers, controlling of these two systems). In order to achieve that aim, the researcher performed this study "A Model for Manpower Planning" which depended upon a model to predict the size of manpower supply and demand for Lecturers in the Medical and Administration & Economics Colleges. These employees were separated into groups such as, the length of career period, or ages groups, to show the deficit or the surplus and the equilibrium between supply and demand. To carry out that model, it was used "Visual Basic 6" programme.(CD can be demanded from the researcher) This study could be considered an initial study in manpower planning among the structural systems of the manpower. It is a continual for the previous studies besides the following additions : 1. Find the expected supply of the manpower with expected demand for every rank of the hierarchy with freedom of choosing the number of the ranks to be no more than two or four.2. Calculate supply and demand of the manpower separated into groups such as the length of career period or ages groups. 3. Putting an equilibrium between supply and demand and putting conditions for promotion, recruitment and wastage.4. Representing the model in the computer by using (Visual Basic 6) language to construct easy model to be used to find the expected demand and supply for ever rank and showing the deficit or the surplus and the quantity of promotion, recruitment and wastage for every rank.

مقارنة طريقة Taguchi مع طريقة سطح الاستجابة للتجربة العاملية الجزئية باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparing Taguchi Method With Response Surface Method For The Fractional Factorial Experiment By Using of Simulation

اسم المؤلف: منال جبريل محمود تيم
اسم المشرف: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | عبيد محمود محسن الزوبعي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2003
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تتلخص هذه الرسالة باعطاء فكرة مبسطه عن التجربة العامليه 2 n من حيث المعالجات والتاثيرات والنماذج والتصاميم الرياضية، ومن ثم دراسة تكوين التكرار الجزئي للتجربة 2n عندما يكون عدد العوامل مساويا الى ثلاثة عوامل وكل عامل بمستويين متضمنة توضيح طرق التحليل الا | The thesis provides simple idea for the 2n fractional experiment, it, treatments ,impacts, and mathematical models and methods, and studying the establishing of fractional frequency for 2n experiment when the number of factors are three with two levels each. and explaining the statistical analysis methods which are convenient for the two levels case for each factor in fractional factorial experiment ,and the same for 3n fractional factorial experiment when the number of factors are three with three levels each, then studying the robust design through Taguchi criterion design approach and Taguchi experiment method, and studying response surface, its, design of first and second grade, and applied it in selecting the levels and it’s values. The research depend mainly on using simulation method for Comparing Taguchi method with response surface design (first and second grade) by using (MSE)as measurement tool. The simulation experiments results approve that response surface always gives better results for (MSE) THAN Taguchi method.

طرائق لتقدير معالم نماذج عمليات ليفي وتوظيفها في اسعار عوائد اسهم مصرفي الشمال والمتحد == Methods of Estimating Model Parameters Le'Vy Processes And Emoloyment In Returns Stock Prices North Bank And United

اسم المؤلف: مريم جمعة موسى
اسم المشرف: مناف يوسف حمود
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تعد سوق الاوراق المالية الهدف المنشود للمستثمرين الذين يرغبون في التخصيص الكفء للموارد المالية المتاحة لديهم الامر الذي يتطلب توفر قدر من البيانات والمعلومات المالية الصحيحة المتعلقة بالشركات التي تتداول ادواتها في السوق حتى يتمكن هؤلاء من ترشيد قراراتهم | The stock Exchange is the target for investors who are interested in the efficient allocation of financial resources available to them , which would require a lot of data on companies that are trading their tools on the market so they can rationalize their decisions and make profits unusal in light of market efficient proper financial in formation.However because there are fluctuations in returns stock prices resulting from low and high stock returns prices at the Iraq stock Exchange solve this problem by using stochastic processes models,One of the models le'vy. Relying on the so - called Brownian subordinate as it has been relying on the so - called Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG).the research aims as the estimate that the parameters of his model using two methods (MME,MLE) and then employ those estimate of the parameters in the study of stock returns and evaluate asset pricing for both the united Bank and Bank of North which their data were taken from the Iraq stock Exchange. As well as the use of simulation method for the purpose of simulating the practical side with a different presumed cases.Has been reached the practical side, which showed the results to a preference MLE on MME based on the standard of comparison the average square error (MSE).As for the side of the simulation it has shown favorable results also MLE on MME. As well as the simulation results indicated that the increase in the value of kurtosis and decreasing the value of skewnsses in NIG model it may cause a decrease in large volatility especially when increasing valumes of samples while side applied found that the yield rate of the stock of the Bank United is higher than the rate of returns for the North Bank as well asthe United owning less coefficient c.v compared with the North Bank and both estimater (MME,MLE).therefore the United Bank is the best investment of the Northa Bank in addition , the North Bank was less efficient than the United Bank for, leading this speech to preference of investors to invest with united Bank and its superiority on the North Bank.

مقارنة بعض خوارزميات التحليل العنقودي في تنقيب البيانات (Data Mining) مع واقع تطبيقي == A Comparing To Some of The Algorithms Cluster Analysis In Data Mining With Application

اسم المؤلف: محي الدين خلف ايوب
اسم المشرف: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2015
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: ان التقدم العلمي المتسارع والانتشار الواسع للمعلوماتية ادى الى الاستعمال الالكتروني لمختلف المعلومات والتي اصبحت تتراكم بشكل هائل في قواعد بيانات كبيرة, وهنا تكمن اهمية البحث في محاولة تنضيج وتبويب هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات في قواعد معلومات تؤدي الغرض ا | Scientific progress is rapid and widespread Informatics web mail to various information which became accumulate dramatically, leading to try to find how tend to tab and this huge amount of data bases for information leading to the desired purpose. Work the term data mining (DM) is appropriate in this area and because of this importance of this research was to try to use data mining algorithms with the search in the accompanying circumstances. And a summary of research supports access to information and knowledge discovery through the use of techniques for data mining (DM) and also touched on the stages of exploration process of data passing through the stage of data processing and even the testing phase (F_test) to measure the case of variation or variation in the data when you reach a level of fitness (Optional). The results of the tests can be observed when changing the sample size (n) as well as the size of clusters (k) , and this leads to variation in the laboratory value (F) and in each case and her envelope. Cluster analysis of the data has spawned tests , The algorithm (K - Means) is the best , Comparing with (Single Linkage) and (Complete Linkage) algorithms A position to achieve the research hypotheses under the values shown in the tables , through calculable scale test (F_test) as well as the scale (MSE) , according to the results of experiments testing of samples sizes (n) and the size of the clusters (k) applied to the variables (v) Search.

التقدير المتسق لمعلمة ميل انموذج الانحدار الخطي البسيط المتاثر بخطا القياس للمتغير التوضيحي مع تطبيق في المجال الصحي

اسم المؤلف: ماهر محسن سلمان
اسم المشرف: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2014
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تعد طريقة المربعات الصغرى الاعتيادية (OLS) من افضل طرائق تقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي وان هذه الطريقة تتصف مقدراتها بصفتي عدم التحيز والاتساق وهذه من صفات المقدر الجيد , الا ان مقدر طريقة المربعات الصغرى يصبح متحيز وغير متسق اذا كان المتغير ال | Ordinary Lease Square (OLS) is the way of the best methods of Parameter estimating of Linear Regression Model , that’s where this method is characterized by unbiased and consistency , and these qualities of good estimator , but (OLS) estimator becomes biased and inconsistent if Explanatory variable contains measurement errors , and the study has been of two consistent estimators, were taking into consideration the presence of measurement errors and they are : reliability ratio method and this way corrects the biasing in (OLS) estimator and makes the estimator consistent , and the other way is : instrumental variable method ; and this way gives consistent estimator and contributes to support the explanatory variable through the addition of an external variable T ,and the instrumental variable must be correlate in a strong relationship with explanatory variable ,also has been showed the additional information's necessary to the alternative estimator to the (OLS). above methods have been applied by using of simulation style of the software MatLab as measurement of errors takes three distributions and they are : normal distribution , standard normal distribution and Uniform distribution by using three sizes of samples (100 , 50 , 20 ) the result showed that reliability ratio estimator method is the best estimator ; regardless of the size of the sample and the distribution of the errors measurement , and this finding corresponds to the findings of researchers , and on this basis has been applied Reliability ratio estimator method on the medical data obtained from patients have fallen asleep in the department of artificial kidney in (Yarmouk) hospital in Baghdad. that's where the level of Urea in the blood is dependent variable , two readings of blood pressure were taking for each patient ,which represent the average is instrumental variable , the purpose of taking blood pressure for each patient in order to estimate the variance of measurement errors ,also has been taken third blood pressure reading by using dialysis machine to represent instrumental variable , has been reached that the ratio of reliability for blood pressure measuring ranging between ( 0.80 - 0.85 (

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير دالة المعولية الضبابية == Compared To Some of The Methods of Estimating Fuzzy Reliability Function

اسم المؤلف: ليث فاضل سيد حسين النعيمي
اسم المشرف: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2015
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: عند احتساب اوقات الفشل للمكائن والمعدات نلاحظ بانها تكون غير مؤكدة او ضبابية في اغلب الاحيان وعلى اساس المركبة او النظام لهذا تناولت هذه الرسالة تقدير دالة المعولية الضبابية في حالة المركبة والانظمة المفردة (المتسلسلة والمتوازية) وباستعمال ثلاث طرائق هي : | When calculating the failure times of the machines and equipment note that it is fuzzy or uncertain in more often on the basis of the component or system to this paper this estimate fuzzy reliability function in the component case and series and parallel system by using three methods are : First, the conventional method : Under this method has been used the failure function and a new membership function of beta type be more flexible in statistical applications, according to this method was derived estimators fuzzy reliability function for series and parallel systems. Second, The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) based on the confidence limits : one of the methods in which based on in estimation on the mean and standard deviation of the times of the failure of the machinery and equipment and give fuzzy reliability function estimate both serial and parallel systems confidence limits are to be used to fuzzy numbers two levels (1 - ?, 1 - ?).Third, the Signed distance method : good methods that give estimating fuzzy reliability function for both systems are similar to estimate the point.That the methods above give estimate reliability Blur function for both systems was a comparison between the advantage of these capabilities and employ the style of simulation manner Monte Carlo (Monte - Carlo) by writing software language application (Matlab) and the experiences and sizes of different samples and both systems were relying on mean square error (MSE) of the comparison between the estimation methods Vtm reach a predestined way normal preference, showing through the mean square error (MSE) that showed a nuance in between estimator ways : how many The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) and the way the Signed distance method of the fact that the way The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) based at its sole discretion to Tabulated values of the distribution (t) and that way the distance indicator based on the indicators way above, for this from the perspective of the researcher, all estimation methods are considered good and can be used in the approved equipment and machinery in their production productive companies.In the practical side researcher has used real data for the purpose of estimating reliability function of the system and fuzzy sequential function reliability of the system parallel Blur, adopted by the General Company for Electrical Industries of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals in Baghdad records.

تحليل التباين المركب لمجموعة تجارب متشابهة في القطاع الزراعي == Combind Analysis of Variance For Similar Experiments Group In The Agricultural Sector

اسم المؤلف: كاظم يحيى عبد الحسين
اسم المشرف: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2011
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: the interaction (treatments X locations , treatments X years , 1. In the statistical sight, the aim is to test the significance of of this method of analysis is : in more than one location and in more than one year too. The aimreplicated in more than one location or period (year) or replicated sector. It means making analysis of variance for experiments that important in different sides of the life, specially in the agricultural The combined analysis of variance method is regarded as a verytreatments X locations X years ). plot experiment that conducted by (CRD , LSD) expanding by the researcher the case of (CRD , LSD) and Split - (RCBD , and Split - plot by RCBD), The study also include The combined analysis of variance was studied for the designsmost suitable environment conditions. true decision that represented by planting the type in the (included locations and agricultural seasons) , then making a many types of a pointed plant for environment conditions2. In agricultural sight , the aim is to test the suitability of experiment increase. that appeared as the value of decrease, the accuracy of the ,one for LSD and the other for Split - plot using LSD. The results using simulation manner and writing two programs for this aimconducted by LSD and by Split - plot using LSD , that led to Because of there is no available data for actually experiments appeared the significant effects.means of the factors and for the means of the interactions that them, the multiple comparisons were done (using Lsd) for the for the significance of the factors and for the interactions between A different results were appeared from experiment to anotherwas done by using Genstat program. homogeneity of variances using statgraph program, the analysis conducted by RCBD, and then after making Bartlett test for conducted by RCBD and another experiments by Split - plot In applications we have got the data of actually experiments

مقارنة طرائق تقدير معالم انموذج ويبل للفشل بثلاثة معالم == Comparing Estimation Methods of Weibull Failure Models With Three Parameters

اسم المؤلف: فراس صدام عبد الهلالي
اسم المشرف: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2004
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: لقد كان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية، يعود الى التطور التكنولوجي والتقني السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات.وعلى هذا الاساس فان دراسة موضوع المعولية والربط بين الجانبين النظري والتطبيقي امر له اهمية كبيرة، | The rapid and wide significance of the theoretical and practical aspects of reliability is due to the technical and technological advance in using the various intricate electronic systems. In this regard, it is important to study the theoretical and practical sides of reliability and their interrelationship since it is an indication to the proficiency and capability of the system component without deficiencies for a long time. This will lead us to evaluate the operation of the system component for improving and increasing the quantity and quality of these systems in addition to its role in the development of the engineering system.The wiebull distribution is used, as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rates somewhat high in starting operation. These rates will be decreased with increasing time. Thus, the study deals with the comparison between estimating parameter and reliability function of the three parameters Weibull Distribution as a model for failure. Different Approaches have been used to carry out the research these include : 1. Classical approachesa. Maximum likelihood method. b. Moment method.2. Baysian approachesa. Bayes method.b. Shrinkage method.Comparison was made between the methods of estimation by employing simulation using Monte - Carlo method using the statistical measures (MSE) and (MAPE) to identify the priority of these estimators for different sample sizes. The study is divided into four chapters, Chapter one deals with the theoretical Background of the topic, including the concepts of reliability. Chapter two is a review of the different estimation methods and aspect s of reliability. Chapter three is devoted the practical side of this research and results analysis. Chapter four reveals the conclusions, findings and the recommendations of the study

نموذج القياسات المتكررة المتعدد المتغيرات ذو الاتجاه الواحد والاختبار الكروي == One - Way Multivariate Repeated Measurements Model And Sphericity Test

اسم المؤلف: فاطمة هاشم فلحي نور
اسم المشرف: عبد الحسين صبر المويل
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2008
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: Repeated Measurement model is one of the most models widely used in field of Experimental Design especially in Agricultural Researches, Biomedical and Epidemiology that is involving in this field. This thesis is devoted to the study of One - Way Multivariate repeated measurement model. Three aspects of work are considered : The first aspect : we consider the multivariate repeated measurements analysis of variance ( MRM ANOVA ) model for complete data.The multivariate repeated measurements generalize repeated measurements in the sense that it allows a vector ofobservations at each measurement; we will consider the case of multivariate response variables. The terminology we use for the various MRM designs in this aspect is a one - way MRM ANOVA refers to the situation with only one within - units factor , which welabel as "Time" for convenience while we label as "Group" for between - units factor. For such model, the observations are transformed by an orthogonal matrix. The ANOVA which is based on the first set of transformed observations provides the ANOVA for the between - units factor effects, while ANOVA which is based on the th k set of transformed observations, for each k=2,3,…,p provides the ANOVA for within - units effect. The problem of the testing hypothesis of multivariate repeated measurements ANOVA model for complete data are studied in this aspect. The test statistics of various hypotheses on between - units factor, within - units factor, and interaction between.The second aspect : we study the sphericity test for one - way MRM ANOVA model.Also we obtain the likelihood ratio criterion and the th h Moment of this criteria. As well as the asymptotic expansion and limiting distribution of its test, statistics are obtained. These aspects are represented in the second chapter of this thesis.The third aspect : we applied the one - way MRM ANOVA model for the chemistry experiment data in order to investigates the possibility of environment pollution in the water of Shatt ALBasrah Khor AL - Zubair.Also we obtain the likelihood ratio criteria from the variance - covariance matrix which is obtain after transformed observations by using orthogonal matrix. The result have shown that is MRM is a best used because it care with the correlation between observations in the model. In addition, we have shown through likelihood ratio criterion is satisfying the spherical hypothesis in the theory aspect with practice aspect which is represented in third chapter of this thesis.

تقديرات معلمات انموذج الانحدار متعدد العوامل - متعدد الحدود من الدرجة الثانية مع تطبيق عملي == Estimations Parameters Multi - Factor - A Polynomial of The Second Degree Regression With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: غيث عبد الشهيد كاظم السلطاني
اسم المشرف: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: في انماذج الانحدار تكون عادة العلاقة بين المتغير المعتمد ( ) والمتغير المستقل ( ) او المتغيرات المستقلة ( ) خطية وفي انماذج اخرى تكون لا خطية. وان انموذج الانحدار المتعدد العوامل - المتعدد الحدود من الدرجة الثانية من النماذج اللاخطية والتي يمكن من خلاله ا | Regression models for the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the independent variable (X) or independent variables (X’s) which are linear or nonlinear. And multiple regression model factors - Multi - border second class of nonlinear models that can get through the estimators of its parameters. In our research was one of the hypotheses regression unrealized, which is that the random error distribution was the distribution of non - identical (Generalized logistic distribution) which led to the use of more accurate methods than the ordinary methods , such as method of robust Laplace and modified maximum likelihood to obtain a estimates of multiple regression parameters factors - multiple modalities border from the second division. On the theoretical side of this research it was addressed to display some specimen multi - factor regression parameters estimates formats - Multi - border quadratic using ordinary least squares method and the method of the modified maximum likelihood and robust Laplace. In the Experimental side it has been the work of experiments using simulation and comparison of these experiments was the use of the index statistical mean square error of the parameters for the model, and through comparison between the methods show that the modified maximum likelihood was the best. As the best values for my shape parameter and scale parameter (b=1,?=1 ) and each sample sizes (n = 20,50.100). As it has been the application of the modified maximum likelihood to real data represent the fact that your natural hormone insulin diabetes depending on the enzyme GOT data, and the GPT enzyme and hormone Hbalc.It was reached to increase the hormone Hbalc lead to a decrease in the hormone's natural insulin diabetes and this leads to an increase in blood sugar, and increase the enzyme GOT and GPT enzyme leads to increased natural hormone insulin.

استخدام التصميم الامثل - D لتجارب القطاعات غير الكاملة المتزنة بنفس المعلمات == Using The D - Optimal Design For The Unbalanced Incomplete Block Design With The Same Parameters

اسم المؤلف: غياث حميد مجيد
اسم المشرف: عماد حازم عبودي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2006
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تهتم هذه الرسالة بالخصائص الاحصائية للتصاميم التجريبية وكيفية اختزال وتقليل الخطا التجريبي في التجربة وذلك باستخدام التصميم الامثل. وقد تم استخدام التصميم الامثل من النوع امثل D - (D - Optimal)، اذ ان امثلية D - تكون مقاسـة بالقيمة المتوقعة لمحددة م | This study deals with the statistical features of the experimental designs and how to cancel and reduce the Experimental Error of the experiment through using the Optimal Design. The Optimal Design of D - Optimal has been adopted. The D - Optimal has been measured by the expected value for the determinant matrices of data for the adopted experimental design and reduce that value to its minimum. The data has been used in designing the Unbalanced Incomplete Block Designs (UIBD). The study comprises four chapters. Each chapter contains many sections that include the contents of these chapters, the first chapter contains the introduction and the aim of the study with a historical view for some other similar studies and some general affairs. The second one includes the theoretical background which concerns the Unbalanced Incomplete Block Design and the optimal designs. The third chapter deals with the application of the experiment by taking data for an agricultural experiment to studying the effect of six kinds of manures on a plant and by using the D - optimal design for the experiment on three types of information matrix. Finally, the fourth chapter deals with the conclusions and the recommendations which have been arrived at as a result of the experiment

ايجاد التوزيع الاحتمالي للطلب خلال فترة الانتظار للمواد المخزنية في شركة تعبئة الغاز == Finding The Probability Distribution of Lead Time Demand For The Inventory Items In Gas Filling Company

اسم المؤلف: علي هشام عبد الرسول السعدي
اسم المشرف: عماد حازم عبودي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2004
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: يعد ايجاد التوزيع الاحتمالي للطلب خلال فترة الانتظار من اهم واعقد المشاكل التي تواجه العاملين في مجال السيطرة على الخزين وذلك عندما يكون الطلب او فترة الانتظار او كلاهما متغيرا وبشكل خاص عندما تكون فترة الانتظار طويلة.غالبا ما تستخدم توزيعات ثنائية | Probability distribution for lead time demand is considered the most important and complex problem that is faced by those who work in inventory control when demand or lead time or both of them are not fixed specially when the lead time is long.In common two parameters distributions are used to represent lead time demand, for example Gamma distribution and lognormal distribution. Although these distributions are some what flexible in representing this variable (i.e. lead time demand), it does not cover all cases.Thus, three parameters distributions are used in addition to that two parameters distributions to represent lead time demand. These three parameters distribution are more flexible and take different forms, consequently they are more compatible to cover more cases.This study consists of four chapters; the first one is a historical review and previous studies of some researchers who worked in probabilistic models for inventory control. The second chapter is a theoretical part that discusses some important conceptions which are used in inventory control and display the most important specification and characteristics of some important distributions to represents demand, lead times and lead time demand, that is the later is the most important to compute different inventory measures, which is limited on re - order level and protection level in this thesis. In addition it shows estimation of distributions parameters by using moment method and Maximum likelihood.The third chapter is the experimental part which tackles the analysis of actual monthly data and lead times data measured by month to find best probability distribution to these data. Then, mix demand data with lead time data. Thus, we get demand data during lead time. These data are tested to get probability distribution which represents them. This distribution depends on computing re - order level in specific protection levels.The forth chapter discusses the most important conclusions of this thesis and recommendations are suggested to the future studies.Further to that, the thesis contains a programs in Pascal language to get use of it to generate lead time demand data, and to test goodness of fit of data and computing re - order level according to lead time demand distributions.

مقدرات طريقة بيز وبعض الطرائق التقليدية شبه المعلمية لتقدير دالة الانحدار اللوجستي في ظل البيانات المفقودة == Bayesian Method Estimates And Some Semiparametric Regular Estimating Methods For Estimating The Logistic Regression With Missing Data

اسم المؤلف: علي محمد علي جيجان الخفاجي
اسم المشرف: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2015
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: يلقى موضوع تحليل النماذج شبة المعلمية والذي يدمج النماذج المعلمية والنماذج اللامعلمية اهتماما واضحا في معظم الدراسات والتي تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة , في بعض الدراسات | Semi - parametric models analysis is one of the most interesting subjects in recent studies because of the precise way it describes the statistical databy giving efficient parameters. In some studies the response variable takes two values, either zero - no response - or one - response - which is called the logistic regression model. And the observations of this model may suffer from missingness and that is when the objective of the study comes.In this thesis the researcher studied some of the methods of estimating missing observations if the missingness is in the parametric variables or in the nonparametric variables. When the missingness was in the parametric variable two methods has been used, which are the Unconditional Mean (UCM) and the KBNS methods. And when the missingness was in the nonparametric variable two methods has been used which are Unconditional Mean (UCM) and Conditional Mean (CM) methods.After completing the observations the methods ofestimating the parameters in Semi - parametric modelswere used to estimate the parameters and these methods were (NW) and (CLLE) and the Bayesian method. Then the results were compared using MSe criteria.A simulation study had been made to compare different sample sizes, variances and missingness ratios by using the MSequality criteria. And the most important conclusions were, in the parametric variable the methods gave close results while the nonparametric variable methods gave different results according to the sample sizes and the variances.Then the best methods in the simulation study with sample size 90 and variance 0.2 were applied on the heart failure disease because the real data sample size was 92 with variance 0.23 and (CLLE) method gave the best result.

مقارنة بين اسلوب بيز وطريقة الامكان الاعظم لتقدير دالة المعولية للنظام المتسلسل والنظام المتوازي مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparison Between Bayes Approach And Maximum Likelihood Method To Estimate Reliability Function For Series System And Parallel System With Application

اسم المؤلف: علي حميد يوسف السراي
اسم المشرف: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2011
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: نتيجة لتطور التقنية العالية والمنافسة الشديدة في القطاع الصناعي فان دراسة المعولية كانت الموضوع لدى الخبراء الاحصائيين بالاضافة الى مهندسو المعولية، لما لها من جانب كبير من الاهمية في حياتنا العملية، وحيث ان معرفة حالات عطل او فشل الانظمة شانه تقليل كلفة | In the theoretical part of this thesis, estimators of reliability function were derived for (series system) and estimators of reliability function for (Parallel system) as well as assumption that the life times of the components form every system is independent and is distributed into exponential distribution with different ` and independent parameters it can be shown as : First : Maximum Likelihood Estimator Second : Bayes Estimator By using squared error loss function and suggested loss function with taking into consideration finding common Prior probability function for random parameters according to researcher Jeffry also density Prior probability that is natural Conjugate that was not discussed in the references of the subject matter of the research. It is very important to refer that the derivation of Bayes estimators to reliability of parallel system were done by the researcher himself for the derivation could not be found in the references of the research which the researcher consulted for making comparison between the suitability of the estimations Monte Carlo stimulation style was used with two statistic measures (MSE) and(MAPE) for determination of the suitable estimator it is concluded that Best estimator by using suggested loss function and Prior density probability function natural Conjugate and so Best estimator using suggested loss function and non informative Prior probability Function.Finally in the practical part of the thesis the results of the theoretical part are wed to estimate reliability of Series System and parallel system in the AL - Kut Texture Factory which is belongs to the general company of texture industry is Wassit

استعمال طريقتي انحدار الحرف والمركبات الرئيسية في تقدير معلمات انموذج اللوجستك في حالة وجود مشكلة التعدد الخطي مع تطبيق عملي == Use The Methods of Ridge Regression And Principle Components To Estimate The Parameters of Logistic Model Under Multicollinearity With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: علي حسين فلوح
اسم المشرف: سهيل نجم عبود
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2016
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: ان اكثر الدراسات في انموذج انحدار اللوجستيك تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يمكن من خلاله الحصول على مقدرات عالية الكفاءة.ان مشكلة التعدد الخطي يمكن ان تظهر في انموذج درجة الميل (Propensity Score Model) عند تقدير متوسط تاثير | More studies on the topic of logistics regression model takes a more advanced in the process of careful statistical analysis which aims to get estimators with a high level of efficiency.The problem of Multicollinearity can appear in the model of propensity scores (PS) when estimating the average treatment effects (ATEs). In this thesis, using the methods of logistic ridge regression, logistic principle components regression an alternative to the maximum likelihood estimates in the propensity scores model. The average treatment effects (ATEs) estimators adopted the method of inverse probability weighted (IPW). logistic ridge regression (LRR), principle components logistical regression (PCLR), and maximum likelihood (ML) used to estimate the propensity scores (PS), The logistics regression model and the variable (W_i) and the Bernoulli distribution in depended variables then probability (?_i) and then estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs), where the use of simulations (Monte Carlo) to generate tracking data model of logistic regression and Multicollinearity problem depending on various factors, from simple correlation coefficient values and sample size and the number of independent variables and the constant value plus the adoption of different designs of propensity score in simulation study, this is due to the fact that estimates the average treatment effects (ATEs) her strengths and different accounts. And we use Bias and the mean squares error (MSE) as criteria for comparing methods of estimation.The results that have been obtained using a simulation study indicates that the Bias and the mean square error (MSE) depend on the sample size and the degree of the correlation as well as the design propensity score model. I have observed that the estimation method of logistic ridge regression (LRR) and principle component logistic regression (PCLR) was the best of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE).In addition to the simulation study, has been applied method of logistic ridge regression (depending on(2 - 16)) on the data of the fact disease, kidney failure, which was obtained from the (Al_Emamyn city hospital) for different models to estimate the propensity scores and then estimate average treatment effect (ATE).

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمات الهيكلية لمنظومة المعادلات الانية الخطية في القياس الاقتصادي مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Some Methods of Estimating The Structural Parameters of The Linear Simultaneous Equations System In Econometrics With A Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: علاء حسين صبري
اسم المشرف: ايمان محمد عبد الله المشهداني
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2012
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: في هذا البحث حاولنا تسليط الضوء على البعض من طرائق تقدير المعلمات الهيكلية لمنظومة معادلات انية مقترحة من الباحث والتي تخص العلاقة السببية بين الصادرات والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق، واستنادا على طبيعة البيانات وخصائص المقدرات تم استعمال معيار المفاضلة الحص | In this research we tried to shed light on some of the methods of estimating the structural parameters of simultaneous equations system proposed by the researcher, which was about the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Iraq , Based on the nature of the data and characteristics of the estimators we used the robust MEDAE to compare between the methods used , which include methods used for the first time in the Arab countries and carried out the first time using real data (to the knowledge of the researcher) , which translated in Jackknife Instrumental Variables Estimation (JIVE) using an instrument that is independent of disturbances even in finite samples.Independence is achieved by using a `leave - one - out' jackknife - type fitted value in place of the usual first stage equation in 2SLS It seems that these methods gives useful alternatives when there is concern to the increase in the degree of over identify for the structural equation under consideration.As well as the researcher used the method of the LIML - LVR which had not previously also be used according to the real data (to the knowledge of the researcher) depending on the general formula K - CLASS

الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية لاختبارات عدم تجانس التباين مع تطبيق عملي == Methods Parametric And Nonparametric Tests For Heterogeneity of Variance With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: علا هادي صادق الوائلي
اسم المشرف: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2015
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تم في هذه الرسالة دراسة بعض من طرائق اختبارات تجانس التباين المعلمية والاختبارات اللامعلمية والمقارنة فيما بينهم في ظل انتهاك واحد او اكثر من الافتراضات الاساسية لتحليل التباين اذ تم استعمال الطرائق المعلمية الخاصة باختبارات تجانس التباين مثل (اختباركوكرا | Been in this Search the study of some of the methods of the homogeneity of variance parametric tests and nonparametric tests as well as the comparison among them under one or more violation of the basic assumptions for analysing the variance, by using the methods of parametric tests which they especialist to the homogeneity of variance such as ( Cochran test , Hartley test, Bartlett test, Levene test, Fisher test) and by using the nonparametric tests which they were expected to be more reliable in the case of one or more violation that related to the special analysis of variance assumptions such as (Ansari - Bradly test, Mood test, Klotz test, test Seigel - Tukey) as the comparison was done among the tests above are based on the possibility of The type I error, as well as relying on standard power of the test. The comparison was made between the estimation methods parametric and nonparametric using simulations and by generating symmetric distributions such as the normal distribution and the uniform distribution and nonsymmetric distributions (twisted) such as the gama distribution. Has been reached in this search that Cochran test may superiority the rest of the tests parametric based on the type I error and power of the test was followed by tests (Hartley test, Bartlett test, Fisher test , Levene test), as for nonparametric tests the Ansari - Bradley test has superiority the rest of the nonparametric tests based on the type I error and power of the test then followed by standard tests (Mood test , Klotz test , seigel - Tukey test). The search also included a practical application of the data taken from the Medical College of Technology of the University of Baghdad for all stages and all sections to calculate body mass (bmi)

استخدام مرشح الموجة الصغيرة المتقطعة في تحليل السلسلة الزمنية AR (1) ومقارنته مع مرشحات اخرى == Using Discrete Wavelets Filter In Analysis of Time Series AR(1) And Comparison With Other Filters

اسم المؤلف: طه حسين علي الزبيدي
اسم المشرف: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2009
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تم في هذه الاطروحة معالجة مشكلة الضوضاء (او التلوث) الذي يمكن ان تتعرض له مشاهدات السلسلة الزمنية باستخدام مرشحات الموجة الصغيرة والاعتماد على تحليل المعلومات من خلال التردد فضلا عن الزمن مقارنة مع تحليل فورير الذي يحلل المعلومات عن طريق التردد فقط مهم | This Thesis deals with the problem of Noise (or Contamination) which may encounter the time series data using Wavelet Filters and depending on the information analysis through the frequency in addition to the time compared to Fourier Analysis which analyze the information through the frequency only omitting the time factor, this was performed through the use of Discrete Wavelet Transformation as a filter to clean the data from the contamination or the noise factors by direct or with some kinds Thresholding , and then Estimate the First - order Autoregressive Model for the filtered time series observations and compare the results with what results from the use of time series observations that are contaminated and filtered by using Wiener and Kalman filters depending on some statistical Criterias, which are The Mean Square Prediction Error, Final Prediction Error, and The Mean Absolute Prediction Error.This study presents the suggested method as well, that depends on the Wavelet as Input for The Artificial Neural Network, and then use the outputs of this Network to Estimate The First - order Autoregressive Model to the time series observations that are filtered, and compare the results with the Classical Method - Neural Network, Haar Wavelet, and Daubechies Filters of the directs from second order and which used with Soft, Mid, and Hard Thresholding by depending on the statistical Criterias given before through using the simulation experiments in addition to use real data represents time series observations of sunspots, and in order to perform this analysis the researcher designed the required computer codes by using MATLAB Language.

مقارنة بعض الطرائق الحصينة في تحليل الارتباط القويم الخطي باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Robust Methods In Linear Canonical Correlation Analysis of Simulation Used With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: طارق عزيز صالح
اسم المشرف: لقاء علي محمد العلوي
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2009
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تبرز اهمية الحاجة الى طرائق تقدير كفء والتي تسمى بالطرائق الحصينة (Robust Methods) عندما تكون بيانات الظاهرة المدروسة ملوثة، او وجود شواذ في المشاهدات، والتي ينتج بسببها مقدرات تؤدي الى زيادة او نقصان في متوسط مربعات الخطا (MSE) مما يؤدي الى استدلال احص | The important of the necessity to my efficient estimation methods, which are called the robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated, it means the observations contains outliers,which may produce estimators which result in increasing (decreasing) in the (MSE), That would leads to an inaccurate statistical inference. From this point was the good behind this research in reaching robust estimators of canonical correlation analysis that can be achieved through the study of some robust methods such as (estimators - M, estimators - MVE, estimators - MCD and estimators - S).for the failure of the classical methods of estimation of canonical correlation analysis at containing data on the ratio contamination (outliers), that leads to the derivation of incorrect covariance matrix consequently to correlation matrix and a series of relations between the incorrect variables. Therefore the robust methods were used in the calculate of covariance matrix which would lead to robust matrices to robust canonical correlation analysis.In order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was divided into four chapters.The first chapter included the introduction, purpose of search and review of literature, the second chapter tackled the theoretical aspect of the robust methods in canonical correlation analysis as well as some of the important concepts, the third chapters deals with the application aspect in which tow types of applied studies were made, The first one uses the simulation method to compare among the studied methods of estimation in canonical correlation analysis and detect the best of the estimator depending on the two statistical measurements bias mean and mean square error which renders the minimum MSE of canonical correlation analysis, the second study uses the truthful data to verity the performance in a practical actuality.Finally, the fourth chapter included the conclusion, recommendations to which the researcher has arrived. In general it is regarded that MCD estimator is the best in the estimation of canonical correlation analysis in comparison with the other studied methods of estimation.

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة والمعولية لانموذج ريلي للفشل لبيانات تامة وبيانات تحت المراقبة من النوع الاول باستخدام المحاكاة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods of Parameter And Reliability of Rayleigh Failure Model For A Complete Data And Type One Censored Data By Using Simulation

اسم المؤلف: صبا صباح احمد الجميلي
اسم المشرف: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2007
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: تعرض الكثير من الباحثين الى انموذج ويبل للفشل (Weibull Failure Model) وتطبيقاته المختلفة كونه احد نماذج الفشل الشائعة الى جانب اهميته في حقل المعولية واختبارات الحياة. فـي هـذا البحث تـم تقديـر معلمــة القياس ودالـة المعوليـة لانموذج ريلـي للفشـل (Rayle | Weibull Failure Model and its different applications have been studied by many researchers, since it is one of the well known failure models in addition to its importance in the reliability field and life tests.This research estimated the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh Failure Model, which is one of the well known failure model in the reliability field and life tests and the signal analysis.The research focused on the comparison between some of the well known estimation methods (classical and Bayesian) for the scale parameter and reliability function of this model by using the Maximum likelihood, Moments, White and Standard Bayes estimation methods.The methodology of the research depends on theoretical study, the methods of classical and Bayesian estimation has been determined elaborately to arrive to the estimations forms of reliability.Also this research depends on an experimental study by designing number of simulation experiments using various values of parameters and sample sizes, this experiment replicated to get high homogeny for the comparison among the estimation methods.Two kinds of data are used in the research : 1 - Complete Data.2 - Time - Censored Data. The researcher suggested two Bayesian methods for estimation in case of complete data; the first is a loss function obtained by compressing the well known square loss function which called it (The Compressed Bayes Method), and the second is a prior function which is called (The Developed Bayes Method). The comparison between the two proposed methods is done to show the effect of Bayesian estimator, then a comparison done between the best proposed methods with the best well known methods to show which estimator is the more accurate to be used for estimation the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh failure model.The results of these experiments show that White method is the best from the other methods which are used in this research in estimating the scale parameter and reliability function, and the results show that the proposed Compressed Bayes method is better than the Standard Bayes and the Maximum Likelihood methods, while the proposed Developed Bayes method verified that it is better than the Moment method in estimating the scale parameter and the reliability function; and better than the Maximum Likelihood estimation method in estimating the reliability function, and using any of the proposed methods (Compressed Bayes, Developed Bayes) is better than the Standard Bayes method. In case of censored data the simulation experiments proved that the Maximum Likelihood estimation method is better than the Standard Bayes estimation method. A comparison of preference estimation methods is done by using the two standards; Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

مقدرات الامكان الاعظم الموزونة الحصينة ومقارنتها مع طرائق اخرى لانموذج اللوجستك مع تطبيق عملي == Robust Weighted Maximum Likelihood Estimates And Their Comparsion With Other Methods of Logistic Model With Practical Application

اسم المؤلف: شرين علي حسين
اسم المشرف: نزار مصطفى جواد الصراف
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2009
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: ان معظم الدراسات في موضوع انموذج انحدار اللوجستك تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. وتاتي اهمية الحاجة الى تطبيق الطرائق الحصينة عندما تكون بيانات الظاهرة المدروسة ملوثة , | In most of studies about the logistic regression model take in it's nature more progness in the procedure of acurate statistical analysis which aim getting estimators of a high level of efficiency , and importance of it's necessity to applicate of the robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated , it means some of the observations vareit clearly from other observations called outliers which may produce estimators untrustworthy and so the decision will be false about the problem that we are trying to study it.From this point was the goal of this research in reaching robust estimators to estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model through study some of theis estimators (method (WMLE) , method( M ) and method (Lp) ) and that by supposing three levels of contamination (0%,10%,30%). Also we use simulation in this study to compete between methods of studied estimator for all levels of the contaminated studies.In this thesis the researcher concluded the success of the method (WMLE (w1)) in estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model, in comparsion with studied estimate methods by depending on statistical measures : Bias, Mean Square Error for parameters and model.Also the researcher specified a chapter for applying and using method WMLE (w1) on real data of angina pectoris patients which taking from Ibn - al - Nafees hospital for the purpose of estimate parameters of binary logistic regression model.

استعمال المجموعات الضبابية ونماذج بوكس جينكنز في السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ ببعض نسب التلوث في مياه الشرب لمدينة بغداد == Using The Fuzzy Sets And Box - Jenkins Models In Time Series To Prediction Some Rates of Pollution In Baghdad City

اسم المؤلف: سيف عدنان سلمان
اسم المشرف: احلام احمد جمعة
الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة: 2014
الموضوع الدقيق: الاحصاء
الدرجة: ماجستير
الجامعة: جامعة بغداد
اللغة: العربية
مكان الجامعة: بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص: There are many statistical methods used in time series analysis and that of the most famous of these methods Box - Jenkins models, which include a number of stages needed to reach the best model is used to predict the process, and that this method requires the availability of a number of conditions required in the process of building the model and assumptions about the nature of the time series being linear, a natural or stationary , and with the growing interest in the topic of time - series modern methods used in time series analysis and foremost of which is the use of Fuzzy logic and Fuzzy sets in the time series as one of the most modern methods to predict is the most important alternatives to traditional statistical methods have emerged they possess the ability to in finding solutions to various areas and it does not require the availability of the conditions due to the use of traditional models which are difficult achieved in most cases. Then in this paper the use of the two methods in the time series, , (Box Jenkins models, and Fuzzy time series) in the forecasting process as each method include special stages are different from the other, through the study of the monthly chemical tests for solids dissolved rate data behavior and examine the turbidity of the water drinking in the city of Baghdad for the period (January 2004) and up (December, 2013) and a better model to predict through the application and the comparison of the results in these ways by using a number of statistical standards and ones (MSE) and (MAPE)
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