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استخدام الاساليب الاحصائية لبيان تاثير الحرب والحصار الاقتصادي على تجارة العراق الخارجية
اسم المؤلف:
عواطف رزوقي مزعل
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه - دكتوراه
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
التقديرات الحصينة للانحدار الضبابي == Robust Estimations For Fuzzy Regression
اسم المؤلف:
محمد جاسم محمد
اسم المشرف:
ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
مقارنة بعض الطرق الحصينة للمربعات الصغرى الجزئية == Compare Some of Robust Methods For Partial Least Squares
اسم المؤلف:
ميسون علي رحمن المندلاوي
اسم المشرف:
هلال عبود البياتي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
الحمد لله والصلاة والسلام على رسول الله سيدنا محمد (صلى الله عليه وسلم )وعلى اله وصحبه وسلم اما بعد...يتناول البحث استخدام انحدار المربعات الصغرى الجزئية PLS)) Partial Least Squares وهي تقنية انحدار خطي طورت للتعامل مع انحدارات ذات ابعاد عالية لمتغير وا | Partial least squares regression ( PLRS) is a linear regression technique developed to deal with high - dimensional regression and one or several response variables. In this paper we introduce robustified version of the SIMPLS algorithm being the leading PLRS algorithm because of its speed and efficiency. Because SIMPLS is based on the empirical cross - covariance matrix between the response variables and the regressors and on linear least squares regression, the results are affected by abnormal observations in the data set. Two robust methods covariance matrix for high - dimensional data and robust linear regression. We introduce robust RMSECV and RMSEP values for model calibration and model validation diagnostic plots are constructed to visualize and classify the outliers. Several simulation results and the analysis of real data sets show the effectiveness and the robustness of the approaches. Because RSIMPLS is roughly twice as fast as RSIMCD, it stands out as the overall best method.
👁 مشاهدة
بناء انموذج للمعاينة البيزية المفردة بافتراض مربع كاي كتوزيع مسبق == Constructing A Model For Bayesian Single Sampling Plan Assumed Chi - Squaar As A Prior Distribution
اسم المؤلف:
ميسون حميد فرج محمد
اسم المشرف:
محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
يتضمن هذا البحث بناء انموذج لخطط المعاينة البيزية باستخدام نظرية القرار، هدف الانموذج التوصل الى معالم خطة بيز المفردة (n,c) حيث n تمثل حجم العينة، c تمثل عدد القبول الضروريان لفحص المنتوج واتخاذ قرار لرفض او قبول الدفعة. قمنا باشتقاق ومناقشة خصائص نظام خ | This research deals with the process of Constructing a model for Bayesian Single Sampling Plan by using decision making theory. The aim of this Model is to obtain the parameters (n,c) which represent Sample size (n) and acceptance number c, which are necessary to inspect the lot and to make a decision whether to accept or reject the product. We drive and discussed the properties of the system of single sampling attributes plan obtained from minimizing the average Expected cost under the assumption that cost decision is a linear function in lot size and sample size. The distribution of the sampling is a mixed Poisson distribution i.e, each lot produced is in Poisson Control but the process average varies from lot of anther according to frequency distribution which is assumed to be derived in the neighbor points of the break - even quality level. We explain all the notation and steps of obtained the total Expected cost of quality Control, which contain the item of cost (Cl,C2...C6) upon the decision of acceptance or rejection, and then how to solved mathematically using forward Variances function to reach the Optimal Parameters (n*,c*). Then the Optimal size of the Sample size is identified is linear function from square root of the lot size. Some auxiliary tables are given, Which represent the results we obtained which indicate that the prior distribution of quality is Chi - Square with m degree of freedom, we apply NP - Chart to make decision about process, we apply also the test of goodness of fit for testing the hypothesis.
👁 مشاهدة
مقارنة بين طرائق تقدير المعولية في حالة الاجهاد والمتانة لانموذجي باريتو وويبل == A Comparison of Approach Estimation Reliability Incase of Stress - Strength For Pareto And Weibull Models
اسم المؤلف:
مي تحسين عبد الحليم العاني
اسم المشرف:
صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
بحوث العمليات
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير المعولية في حالة الاجهاد والمتانة لبعض النماذج الاحصائية على فرض ان متغيري الاجهاد والمتانة العشوائيين مستقلان ولهما التوزيع نفسه. ولقد كانت نماذج الاجهاد والمتانة التي تم اخذها بنظر الاعتبار في هذا البحث هي الاتية : اولا : انموذج | In this dissertation, the reliability of the stress and strength has been estimated for some statistical distributions on the assumption that the variable of stress and strength are random and independent and have the same distribution, where is the stress and strength model have been taken under consideration in this research are as follow : 1 - Pareto stress - strength model.2 - Weibull stress - strength model.The methods of estimating the distribution parameters for each model were the maximum likelihood (ML) moment (MOM), least square (LS) and sharing age (Sh) depending on the availability of primary information about the parameters in order to be estimated.In this research a comparison was conducted among the methods mentioned above to estimate the reliability in case of stress and strength the models in order to reach to the best method to estimate the reliability by assigning Monte Carlo simulation approach depending on the two statistical measurement such as the mean square errors (MSE) and mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for comparison between the priority of estimators and various sample size (small, medium, large).The researcher which reached to best method is Maximum Likehood Method (ML) to estimate the reliability in case of Pareto stress strength model, and Shrinkag Method (Sh) to estimate the reliability in case of Weibull stress strength Model, that are presented in this dissertation
👁 مشاهدة
بناء نموذج رياضي خطي لشبكة توزيع المنتجات النفطية في العراق == Establishing A Mathematical Model of Integrated Industrial System
اسم المؤلف:
محمد سعد ابراهيم
اسم المشرف:
فاتن فاروق صالح البدري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
بحوث العمليات
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
ان عملية صنع القرار عند وجود معايير متعددة تعد من المواضيع المهمة والسائدة في مجال بحوث العمليات والاقتصاد والهندسة والادارة وفي كثير من المجالات الاخرى اذ تتميز فكرة المعايير المتعددة بدلا من الاحادية بانها ”الامثل“ وهي ايضا تمثل مفهوما بديلا عن الام | Multiple Criteria Decision Making is one of the important and dominate subjects in the field of operations research, economics, engineering and management and in many different fields where the notion of multiple criteria rather than single criteria is characterized as the “optimal” and it also represents an alternative concept of traditional optimality because of due to the importance of this subject the goal of this study was to Establishing A Mathematical Model of Integrated Industrial System through the use of Multiple Criteria Decision Making approaches where the real problems is often constrained and needs a formula to find an optimal solution which depends on trade - offs for the evaluation of the best criteria and since the trade - offs are not existent among the single criteria this study basically depended on the multiple criteria concept which included eight concepts of optimality, fuzzy multi objective optimality, multi objective optimality with fuzzy constraints, solving non - fuzzy multi objective optimality, fuzzy goal and fuzzy constraint programming, tow phase approach for solving problem and goal programming with achievement functions. Because of the importance of white oil products (Benzene, Gas oil, Kerosene) in every day life and the continuous and increasing demand for it a mathematical model for system of the distribution of oil products network has been built to achievement two goals first is to minimize the cost transportation oil products through pipelines dedicated for transportation these products and second to minimize the shortage in the refineries to the maximum rate to respond the demand of oil products of all the governorates of the country where these objectives are subject to the constraints related to the amounts of demand for each governorates products energies of refineries, transportation energies, designable pipes energies and implicit constraints and this model was solved by using the ready made program (WinQSB - 98) respective of operations research models
👁 مشاهدة
مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط من الرتبة الاولى باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison Some Parameters Estimation Methods For Mixed Model of Low Order Using Simulation
اسم المؤلف:
لمياء محمد علي البدراني
اسم المشرف:
لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
يهدف البحث الى دراسة طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط (الانحدار الذاتي - الوسط المتحرك) (Stationary Autoregressive - Moving Average Model) المستقر من الرتبة الاولى ARMA(1,1) مع دراسة الحالات الخاصة له، وهي : ARMA(1,0), ARMA(0,1) دراسة نظرية وتجريبية با | This thesis aims to studying the parameters estimation methods of the stationary mixed model (autoregressive - moving average) of low order ARMA(1,1) with the special cases of it which are : ARMA(1,0) and ARMA(0,1) in regard to time domain analysis in univariate time series.Using Exact maximum likelihood estimation methods (EML) and the approximating methods : backforecasting (BF) and Conditional least square (CLS) beside Moment method (M.M) with suggested conditional method (SC) and alternative method for moment method of ARMA(0,1) model. Driven some estimators for some special model.A comparison is done among the different methods by using criteria : mean square error (MSE) , mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and average absolute error (AAE) and using several simulation experiments ,and iterating each experiments(1000) times, The results it found that the (EML) is better and more efficient than others. From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign and moment estimator for ARMA(1,1) model that is : when the sign is positive means the root gives invertable model and when the sign is negative means the root gives invertable model. The thesis consisted of four chapters, The first chapter contained introduction and literature review. The second chapter discussed the deferent estimation methods, The third chapter contained the experimental part using simulation for different sample sizes of series. It had been arrived at some conclusions and recommendations were consisting the fourth chapter
👁 مشاهدة
بعض طرائق التشخيص والتقدير في الانحدار الذاتي الخطي وغير الخطي ذي الرتب الدنيا == Some Method of Identification And Estimation For Linear And Nonlinear Autoregressive Models With Lower Order
اسم المؤلف:
ﻓﺭﺍﺱ ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻨﺎ
اسم المشرف:
عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
Time Series Analysis face Two important Problems, take Part in the base of Statistical Work, Which are : Identification and Estimation Problems Specially in Stationary limits. Thus, the identification Process Was based in most of the researches on the Linear Models, Where had used many Methods, Some of them by graphics, and some Other by identification's Criterion's for instance : AIC and BIC Criterions and Others. On the Other hand, the estimation Process stands also on the parametric Methods only, for many years ago. But, the Complexity and improvement of the Phenomena's, and the Progress made in Computers, In both hardware and Software, and the Progress happened in the Numerical Analysis, Courage's the researchers to make their Papers and articles in advanced topics deal with Problems Which could face the identification and Estimation, either the difficulty of large sample size , or by the nonlinear Patterns which could suit some models from others. Furthermore, some Phenomena's may change its behavior at some point (Period) of time, so, it may have two different Patterns (Models) or more. Therefore, at the same time the researcher introduce the Classical identification (AIC , BIC) ,also introduce the new ones ( Table - C and FPE that depended on Kernel function. Where the researcher Make a Suggestion Kernel function in identification. Also we concern with Estimation parameter of Linear and nonlinear Model AR(P) , EXPAR(P) , SETAR(L,K,K,…,K). Here , the researcher also introduce a suggestion of Estimation method grouping the advantages of each of Parametric Estimation Like (Burg and Fisher) and nonparametric like (Spline) together. Also the researcher offers and there proposition about using MGCV Criterion for Estimation ( Spline Method) so in comparison. Also researcher introduce a Suggesting , using the initial Value for Smoothing parameter in Estimation Method (Spline). The researcher used Simulation experiments, by using ( Monte - Carlo) Method, where applied with different Sample Size and different Parameters, Where first : The identification suggesting shows an efficient Criterion especially With the model AR and SETAR , Second : for the estimation suggesting which shows an efficient criterion compared with all the models applied in the simulation experiments
👁 مشاهدة
مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة والمعولية لانموذج ريلي للفشل لبيانات تامة وبيانات تحت المراقبة من النوع الاول باستخدام المحاكاة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods of Parameter And Reliability of Rayleigh Failure Model For A Complete Data And Type One Censored Data By Using Simulation
اسم المؤلف:
صبا صباح احمد الجميلي
اسم المشرف:
عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
تعرض الكثير من الباحثين الى انموذج ويبل للفشل (Weibull Failure Model) وتطبيقاته المختلفة كونه احد نماذج الفشل الشائعة الى جانب اهميته في حقل المعولية واختبارات الحياة. فـي هـذا البحث تـم تقديـر معلمــة القياس ودالـة المعوليـة لانموذج ريلـي للفشـل (Rayle | Weibull Failure Model and its different applications have been studied by many researchers, since it is one of the well known failure models in addition to its importance in the reliability field and life tests.This research estimated the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh Failure Model, which is one of the well known failure model in the reliability field and life tests and the signal analysis.The research focused on the comparison between some of the well known estimation methods (classical and Bayesian) for the scale parameter and reliability function of this model by using the Maximum likelihood, Moments, White and Standard Bayes estimation methods.The methodology of the research depends on theoretical study, the methods of classical and Bayesian estimation has been determined elaborately to arrive to the estimations forms of reliability.Also this research depends on an experimental study by designing number of simulation experiments using various values of parameters and sample sizes, this experiment replicated to get high homogeny for the comparison among the estimation methods.Two kinds of data are used in the research : 1 - Complete Data.2 - Time - Censored Data. The researcher suggested two Bayesian methods for estimation in case of complete data; the first is a loss function obtained by compressing the well known square loss function which called it (The Compressed Bayes Method), and the second is a prior function which is called (The Developed Bayes Method). The comparison between the two proposed methods is done to show the effect of Bayesian estimator, then a comparison done between the best proposed methods with the best well known methods to show which estimator is the more accurate to be used for estimation the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh failure model.The results of these experiments show that White method is the best from the other methods which are used in this research in estimating the scale parameter and reliability function, and the results show that the proposed Compressed Bayes method is better than the Standard Bayes and the Maximum Likelihood methods, while the proposed Developed Bayes method verified that it is better than the Moment method in estimating the scale parameter and the reliability function; and better than the Maximum Likelihood estimation method in estimating the reliability function, and using any of the proposed methods (Compressed Bayes, Developed Bayes) is better than the Standard Bayes method. In case of censored data the simulation experiments proved that the Maximum Likelihood estimation method is better than the Standard Bayes estimation method. A comparison of preference estimation methods is done by using the two standards; Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
👁 مشاهدة
اشتراك توزيعي ويبل وتكوين توزيع الباي ويبل == The Participation of Two Weibull Distributions And The Formation of Bi - Weibull Distribution
اسم المؤلف:
سلام جاسم محمد الساعدي
اسم المشرف:
علي عبد الحسين صالح الوكيل
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
ان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية باعتباره علما يتعامل مع اعمار المعدات ولاسيما احتمالات البقاء ومتوسط الحياة وهذا يعود بالاساس الى التطور التكنولوجي السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات. وعلى هذا الاساس فان در | The wide increasing concern of studying the topic of reliability as a science dealing with equipment ages, especially the survival and life average probabilities rendered to the fast technological development and the utility of complicated electronic systems in various fields. On that basis, the studying the topic of reliability and the connection between the theoretical and applied sides together have a great importance because they are considered the indicator towards stating the extent of efficiency and capacity of the machine and the work system without damages for a long period of time, accordingly, the study of (Weibull Distribution) is a sample of failure functions because this distribution is suitable when failure rates are high relatively at the operating start, then these rates decrease gradually with time increase. Accordingly, the thesis includes mainly a display of a new sample of joint distributions which is known as (Bi - Weibull). This kind of distribution gives more elasticity and more accurate results.Hence, the basic statistical measures and the parameter estimation of (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) were found through (MLE) by using the simulation method (Inverse Formula). In order to reach the research aim, the research is divided into five chapters. Chapter one deals with the topic general backgrounds and function definition including the reliability function. Whereas chapter two is dedicated to expose the methods of estimating the parameters of the (2 - Parameter Weibull Distribution) with displaying the basic statistical measures of (2 and 3 - Parameter Weibull Distributions). As to chapter three, it includes the theoretical side of (Bi - Weibull Distribution) with the exposure of the following three states of this distribution : - (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (5 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (6 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) with their basic statistical measures.Chapter four manifests the research programs and simulation results as well as result analysis. Chapter five includes the conclusions and recommendations the researcher has arrived at
👁 مشاهدة
تقلبات سعر صرف الدينار العراقي للمدة من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005 والتنبؤ بسعره في المستقبل باستخدام سلاسل ماركوف == Fluctuating of The Iraqi Dinerexchange Rate Since 1996 Until Mid 2005 And Forecasting It In The Future By Using Markov Chains
اسم المؤلف:
خليل برهان الدين فرمان السعدي
اسم المشرف:
صباح منفي رضا الشمري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
ان هذا البحث هو دراسة احصائية اقتصادية في مجال سعرالصرف بدراسته من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005، ويتلخص بهذه العبارة (( الحاضر جني الماضي والمستقبل غرس الحاضر)) وهو محاولة متواضعة لبلورة هذا السعرفي اسلوب علمي احصائي، وكانت سلاسل ماركوف خير معبرعن ذلك | This research is considered as a first statistical and economic study in the field of Exchange rate during the period from 1996 till midd 2005. It could be summarized with this sentence (present is the fruit of the past and the future is the plantation of present). Markov chains was used as a scientific statistical method in forecasting process being one of the easiest models. When the data at present is represented in three conditions (i.e high, low, and stable) and between the past, present and future, it was possible to achieve the ideal method in the analysis by using Maximum Likelihood method and Ordinary Least Square method in estimating transitional probabilities matrix. The probability values have been put for all stages and for both methods in one table. The period was divided to three phases according to the political circumstances in Iraq in addition to general phase. The results of the matrices were clean and independent when multiplied by (n) times as shown in attached annexes and in stationary distribution vector, when the probability values were stable for the three cases in definite number and for each phase. The conclusions achieved in the third phase and the possible study to rise Iraqi Diner value to a certain level has been coincided. Finally , the study submitted some useful recommenda - tions.
👁 مشاهدة
استخدام البرمجة الديناميكية لحل مشكلة جدولة انتاج متعدد لماكنة منفردة لكلفة خزين متغيرة == Using Dynamic Programming To Solve The Multi - Item Single Machine Scheduling Production Problem For Variable Inventory Cost
اسم المؤلف:
حيدر عدنان امير
اسم المشرف:
لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
بحوث العمليات
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
الغرض من هذا البحث هو تطبيق اسلوب البرمجة الديناميكية Dynamic Programming لتخطيط الانتاج لمنتج واحد او اكثر بواسطة ماكنة واحدة ولعدة انواع من دوال الكلفة الخطية والمقعرة والمحدبة. سوف نهتم بتخطيط الانتاج لفترة زمنية مستقبلية تسمى ( فترة التخطيط ) Planning | The purpose from this research is to apply one of operations researches manners and its Dynamic Programming manner, to planning for one manufacturer or more and for many types from linear cost functions, convex and concave which are manufacture by lonely machine.We will pay attention in manufacturing planning for future chronological period named Planning Horizon for a machine is manufacturing many manufacturers with a machine changeover cost, where in this period the ordering average is change on the manufacturer, we’ll suppose too that the chronological space is divided to periods , the planning problem is happening by determining manufacturing average for every period in Planning Horizon , for knowing the ordering on every period is known but it’s not constant from each period to other which give it the Dynamic Form.In the research aim about how we planning for manufacturing period, so it will be study different models for cost function in one manufacturer case or more and apply an algorithm for each case and after that programming some of these algorithms to determining the best Planning Horizons where at them wholly cost function is might less.This subject consider as one of the important subjects in manufacturing operation fields, industrial operations, geometric operations and etc …For the important of leather industries, this subject apply on the factories of the Common Company of Leather Industries and that is happen by planning for outputting and stock to find less possible cost and the choice happen for four factories from the company and it’s : 1. Baghdad shoes factory ( Bata previously )2. kufa factory ( sporty shoes )3. Bags factory 4. Leather clothes factory And this by forming models to Dynamic Programming and it’s : 1. forward algorithm without disability 2. forward algorithm with disability 3. backward algorithm allow disabilityIt’s developing by the researcher to apply it in the multiple outputting and solve them and taking the results through a computer program written by the researcher for every model in Visual Basic Language.
👁 مشاهدة
التحليل الاحصائي لتجارب القياسات المكررة للبيانات المصنفة == The Statistical Analysis For Experimental The Categorical Data of Repeated Measurement
اسم المؤلف:
حلا كاظم عبيد الصبيحاوي
اسم المشرف:
سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
حيث تم استعمال اختبار (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) على بيانات ذات معالجتين وكل معالجة بمستويين المتمثلة ببيانات مرض ضغط الدم ولدوائين وكل دواء بمستويين (ملائم وغير ملائم) ومن خلال الجانب التطبيقي تم الو | In this dissertation the study have concentrated on the use of repeated measurements tests of catcorigal data, where we used (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) tests on two treatments data, and every treatments with two levels which represent raised blood pressure data, and for two medications, each medication with two levels (appropriate and inappropriate), through the practical aspect, we concluded that the ratio of response for the two medication are the same. Also we used (Ireland & Ku & Kullback, Bhapkar, Stuart) tests on data with two treatments, each treatment has more than two levels that represent data of fifth grade (High school) for Arabic text book through years (2001 - 2004) in sumer high school, in which the first treatment represents the students grades in mid term exam, and the second treatment represented the student grades in final exam, through the practical aspect we gained an equivalent results in the previously mentioned methods (in which the students levels in mid term exam equivalent to that in final exam). We also used (Ireland & Kullback, Cochran) tests and weighted least squares (WLS) tests on three treatments data in which every treatment has two levels that represents data of student in the same grade, and in the same years for English text book in which the first treatment represents the first term average, and the second treatment represents the student's grade in mid year, and the third treatment represents the average of second term. And for two levels (Pass and failed), through the applicative of these test on these data we concluded that the level of any given student in first term is equal to the level in mid year and it's also equal to that in second term.
👁 مشاهدة
مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس باستخدام عينات مراقبة من النوع الثاني
اسم المؤلف:
حلا سلمان فرحان
اسم المشرف:
صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس اخذين بنظر الاعتبار وجود عينات مراقبة((Censored Data من النوع الثاني في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات بشكل دالة احتمالية اولية مشتركة لكل من معلمتي الشكل والقياس,حيث تم افتراضها حسب اسلوب الباحث(Jef | In this study have been estimated the survival function to Lomax distribution considering there was censored data (second Type) just in case if a primitive information were available about the indications as mutual primitive probability function for both : indications form & measure which assumed in order to method of the searcher (Jeffry) and also squared error loss function). So measured estimated pez S*(t) for survival function S (t) is the conditional expectation function S*(t) =E[S (t)/X].It has been used approximated methods to measure them because It is hard : to measure the complementary of numerator and denominator in a mathematics form by using Bayes method. One of these methods is the method of the searcher ( Lindley) while the other method was return to ( Tierrney and Kadon).In addition to methods formerly to estimate the survival function; the searcher has used the Shrinkage method. While she used the maximum likelihood method as a usual method for those which did not depend on the primitive information because the estimated thing had fixed quality.So, all this to make the comparison between these methods and the oldest one through simulation style by Mont - Carlo to get new estimation which carried the wanted qualities in the perfect estimated to get specific results : to choose the suitable estimation method.The searcher hade made the bayes (lomax distribution survival function) as the lindley manner was the best among the other manners to estimate lomax distribution survival function ,on general ;while the manner of the maximum likelihood method was the best manner among to other estimated manners for tiny simple size on private.
👁 مشاهدة
مقارنة مقدرات بيز الحصين مع مقدرات اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية التقريبية لتوزيع ويبل == A Comparison of Robust Bayesian Estimators With Another Estimators To Estimate The Approximation of Reliability Function For Weibull Distribution
اسم المؤلف:
تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
اسم المشرف:
مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
من الملاحظ ان معظم البحوث والدراسات في مجال الاحصاء ولاسيما في حقل المعولية تهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. لاسيما عندما تكون بيانات العينة قيد الدراسة ملوثة. او في حالة عدم التحديد الدقيق للمعلومات المسبقة او في حالة ظهور الحالتين م | It is noticed that most of the researches and studies in the field of statistics particularly in the field of reliability aiming to obtain estimators of very high standard of competency specially when the sample data under study is contaminated, or in the case of not determining accurately the previous information or in case both cases appear together. From here came the objective of the thesis to come to competent estimators of the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution which is considered one of the common failure models. Through studying the ordinary procedures represented in the maximum likelihood method and method of moments and white’s method as well as the ordinary robust methods represented by the method of M - estimate and bayes procedure as well. Therefore bayes procedure was suggested depending on natural conjugate prior function in addition to suggesting three methods according to robust bayes procedure where the first suggested procedure of robust bayes assumed that there is an extent of belief and to a certain percentage with the researcher (the percentage of the researcher falling into mistake in determining the primary information) where the accurate determination of the primary information has already been made which will be integrated with the sample prospects to obtain bayes estimater As to the second suggested procedure of the robust bayes it treated the problem of the sample prospects contamination or the primary information. Whereas the third robust bayes procedure suggestion had treated the problem of appearance of both problems together - that is inaccuracy in determining the primary information and the possibility of contamination to the sample views or the primary views as well, found a comparison between the studied evaluation methods by using the simulation procedure. It has been arrived to the success of the suggested methods in evaluating the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution depending on the two statistical scales (Integral Mean Square Error) (IMSE) and the (Integral Mean Absolute Percentage Error) (IMAPE).
👁 مشاهدة
مقارنة طرائق تقدير معلمات ودالة معولية توزيع كاما ذي المعلمتين في حالة البيانات المفقودة باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparing The Estimation Methods of The Parameters And The Reliability Function For The Two Parameters Gamma Distribution In Case of Missing Data By Using Simulation
اسم المؤلف:
اوات سردار وادي
اسم المشرف:
ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
ان اغلب طرائق التقدير الاحصائية تفترض توفر بيانات تامة المشاهدات للعينات المدروسة، وقد بنيت جميع الطرائق على هذا الاساس. ولكن في الكثير من الظواهر الطبيعية، والاقتصادية، والاجتماعية وغيرها تتعرض جزء من بيانات هذه الظواهر الى الفقدان وتختلف اسباب الفقدان ف | Most of the statistical estimation methods depend on the availability of the complete data of the observations of the samples under study. All the statistical methods are based on this basis. However, part of the data of most of the natural, economic and social phenomena is prone to be missed for several reasons. The missing of the data may happen intentionally because of the high costs, risks or the lack of capabilities or unintentionally because of the failure of the recorders, the lack of the necessary requirements of production, the natural disasters, wars etc. Regardless of the various reasons, the incomplete data gives arise to a complex problem, which must be resolved by using statistical methods that deal with the incomplete data.In most cases, the failure times data of the individual component in the system has missing observations. Most of the reasons of having missing data go back to the meter, which registers the failure times of the whole system instead of a single component. Furthermore, the maintenance employees and the operators, who register the data, are responsible for maintaining the systems or the engines which fail to operate; they are not responsible for registering the data. Hence, it is not possible to have a convenient distribution of failure times because of the missing data of the individual component during the registration and because the available data represent the whole number of the failure times and the accumulative number of the operating. Consequently, the familiar methods of estimation are inconvenient. Therefore, some researchers derive and develop certain methods to estimate the parameters and Reliability Function using this kind of non - standard data for the various distributions of failure times.The research studies the Two Parameters Gamma Distribution, which is considered one of the most important, applicable and widely used distributions in the reliability realm and Survival Theory. It is mostly used as a model to distribute the failure times of the electrical, mechanical and electromechanical systems. The estimation of the parameters and the Reliability Function of this distribution in case of missing data has been made by using two important methods : the Maximum Likelihood Method and the Shrinkage Method. The former one consists of three methods to solve the MLE non - linear equation by which the estimators of the maximum likelihood can be obtained : Newton - Raphson, Thom and Sinha methods. Thom and Sinha methods are developed by the researcher to be suitable in case of missing data. Furthermore, the Bowman, Shenton and Lam Method, which depends on the Three Parameters Gamma Distribution to get the maximum likelihood estimators, has been developed. A comparison has been made between the methods in the experimental aspect to find the best method through simulation by using the Monte Carlo Method. Several experimentations have been made by using two of the important statistical measures : Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Proportional Error (MAPE). Generally, the developed Thom Method is found to be the best one for the Reliability Function estimation because it has the minimum Integral Mean Square Error (IMSE) and the minimum Integral Mean Absolute Percentage Error (IMAPE) in comparison with the other methods.
👁 مشاهدة
اسقاطات السكان والقوى العاملة في محافظة نينوى للفترة (1997 - 2027) حسـب التعداد العام للسكان عام 1997 == The Population And Labor Force Projection of Ninawa For The Period (1997 - 2027)
اسم المؤلف:
اسيل محمود شاكر السهيل
اسم المشرف:
بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
لقد اتجه اهتمام المفكرين والعلماء منذ عقد الثمانينات او حواليه لينصب على قضايا التشغيل ودخل الاسرة والاستهلاك، وفي ذلك دعوة واضحة للتركيز على المدخل الاجتماعي في عملية التخطيط للتنمية وعلى جانب العرض في عملية تخطيط القوى العاملة باعتبار ان هذا الجانب يشكل | In the eighties, scientists and thinkers concerned in family income, job issues, and consumption.This concern directs the attention towards the importance of social field in the development plan, and towards offer field in labor force design which is a case needs a special concern by itself since it requires the exploitation of all of the existing economical abilities to offer jobs and to manage the perfect use of national employment.The main basics of social and economical development plan are the analysis of humanity resources, the study of supply and demand field in size and structure for the available labor force in a certain country, and the predication of labor force according to the economical activities and occupation in the future.Hence, this study aims to estimate the numbers of future labor force in Nainawa governorate for the period (1997 - 2027) according to the census of (1997) which is considered as a basic year in building a future data base that depends upon true scientific facts.The aim of this study requires the estimation of the averages of economical activity for (1992) using Linear Extrapolation Method and Indirect Extrapolation Method redaction by Durand Coefficient to estimate the average of economical activity for the period (2002 - 2027).The number of people was projected by using Component Method which requires hypothesizing people variables including fertility, mortality and migration.The first step to reach the aim of this study is evaluating and adjusting the faults of data in age and qualitative structure in Nainawa governorate by using United Nation Secretariat Standard and Reduction of Effects of Age Heaping Method using unfamiliar age groups for evaluating and adjusting
👁 مشاهدة
اختبارات التكامل الكسري في نماذج ARIMA == Tests of Fractional Integration In Models ARIMA
اسم المؤلف:
احلام حنش كاطع
اسم المشرف:
لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
المستخلص:
توجد انواع من العمليات العشوائية المستقرة لا نستطيع ان نعدها كنماذج من الاوساط المتحركة او الانحدار الذاتي اذ انها تحتوي عل خصائص هذين النوعين (انحدار ذاتي - اوساط متحركة) فمثل هــذه العمليات تسمـى بالنماذج المختلطة ويرمز لها بـ (ARMA(p, q)) ولكي تتوفر ال | There are many types of stationary stochastic processes that can’t be considered as models of moving average or autoregressive, because they have the characteristics of these two kinds : (Autoregressive - Moving average). These processes are called mixed models and referred to as (ARMA (p, q)). In order that these models have the stability, the roots of equation must equal zero , outside the unit circle and also for the Inevitability, the roots of equation must equal zero , outside the unit circle. These models may be non - stationary in themselves but they will be stationary after many transformations or differences, so the models which explains this process will be different from the original, because it must contain those differences that have been done on the original models. These stationary models are called ARIMA, and the differences may be inter numbers or fractional numbers, then, the differences will be fractional numbers ranged between [0.5 , - 0.5] , and the model is called ARFIMA or what is called as fractional integration, and (d) represents the parameter of the fractional differences. In this study, three methods have been applied to test the non stationary models of the fractional integration (ARFIMA). One of the common test used is that which is based on the periodogram regression suggested by GPH, whereas LO suggests another test modified from the classical test which is known as modified rescaled range (MRR). A third test has been presented which adopts the idea of lagrang multiple which is known as : (LM). These tests have been applied in four models; AR, MA, ARCH and ARFIMA. The way of simulation and building programs using Visual basic (V. B) has been employed the percentages of the times of rejection have been gained out of 1000 frequencies for each method of the test, for each parameter and for more then one sample. The fractional integration parameter of the first test GPH has been compared with table (t), because variance is unknown, as to the second test MRR, the value (R/S) is compared with table LO, the third test LM is compared with table Z.
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تطبيقات الامثلية متعددة الاهداف في الصناعات النفطية == Applications of Multi - Objectives Optimality in the Petroleum Industries
اسم المؤلف:
مروان فيصل توفيق بخايا
اسم المشرف:
صباح منفي رضا الشمري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
بحوث العمليات
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
تطبيقات لنظرية صفوف الانتظار في المستشفى التعليمي لكلية طب الاسنان - جامعة بغداد == APPLICATIONS OF THE QUEUING THEORY IN THE EDUCATIONAL HOSPITAL FOR COLLEGE OF DENTISTRY UNIVERSITY OF BAGHDAD
اسم المؤلف:
عمار شهاب احمد
اسم المشرف:
فاتن فاروق صالح البدري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
بحوث العمليات
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
استخدام اسلوب ماركوف في شبكات بيرت الاحتمالية مع تطبيق عملي
اسم المؤلف:
افتخار علي حسين الدفاعي
اسم المشرف:
محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
بحوث العمليات
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
استخدام اختباري Kendall وSpearman اللامعلميين للتجارب العاملية ذات المتوسطات الشبكية الترتيب lattice - ordered Means مع تطبيق عملي == Using A sets of Nonparametric Tests for Experiment With Lattice - Ordered Means with Applications
اسم المؤلف:
اسماء نجم عبد الله
اسم المشرف:
دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
تطبيق سلاسل ماركوف في مجال الاتصالات باستخدام اسلوب المحاكاة == The Study of Markoff’s Chains and Some of the Important Distributions in the Field of Communication by Using the Simulation Method
اسم المؤلف:
احمد عباس علوان
اسم المشرف:
انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
بحوث العمليات
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
استعمال طريقة Jacckknife لتقدير معلمات انموذج انحدار غير خطي مع تطبيق عملي
اسم المؤلف:
يوبرت يوئيل ايليا
اسم المشرف:
اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
تقدير دالة الانحدار اللامعلمي باستخدام بعض الطرائق اللامعلمية الرتيبة مع تطبيق عملي للمقارنة بينها == Estimation the nonparametric regression function by using some the monotone nonparametric methods with practical application for comparison between them
اسم المؤلف:
ياسمين عبد الرحمن محمد الجواد
اسم المشرف:
دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
السنة:
2007
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد
اللغة:
العربية
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
الصفحات الاولى:
👁 مشاهدة
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