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مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة والمعولية لانموذج ريلي للفشل لبيانات تامة وبيانات تحت المراقبة من النوع الاول باستخدام المحاكاة
A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods of Parameter And Reliability of Rayleigh Failure Model For A Complete Data And Type One Censored Data By Using Simulation
اسم المؤلف:
صبا صباح احمد الجميلي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2007
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تعرض الكثير من الباحثين الى انموذج ويبل للفشل (Weibull Failure Model) وتطبيقاته المختلفة كونه احد نماذج الفشل الشائعة الى جانب اهميته في حقل المعولية واختبارات الحياة. فـي هـذا البحث تـم تقديـر معلمــة القياس ودالـة المعوليـة لانموذج ريلـي للفشـل (Rayle | Weibull Failure Model and its different applications have been studied by many researchers, since it is one of the well known failure models in addition to its importance in the reliability field and life tests.This research estimated the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh Failure Model, which is one of the well known failure model in the reliability field and life tests and the signal analysis.The research focused on the comparison between some of the well known estimation methods (classical and Bayesian) for the scale parameter and reliability function of this model by using the Maximum likelihood, Moments, White and Standard Bayes estimation methods.The methodology of the research depends on theoretical study, the methods of classical and Bayesian estimation has been determined elaborately to arrive to the estimations forms of reliability.Also this research depends on an experimental study by designing number of simulation experiments using various values of parameters and sample sizes, this experiment replicated to get high homogeny for the comparison among the estimation methods.Two kinds of data are used in the research : 1 - Complete Data.2 - Time - Censored Data. The researcher suggested two Bayesian methods for estimation in case of complete data; the first is a loss function obtained by compressing the well known square loss function which called it (The Compressed Bayes Method), and the second is a prior function which is called (The Developed Bayes Method). The comparison between the two proposed methods is done to show the effect of Bayesian estimator, then a comparison done between the best proposed methods with the best well known methods to show which estimator is the more accurate to be used for estimation the scale parameter and reliability function for Rayleigh failure model.The results of these experiments show that White method is the best from the other methods which are used in this research in estimating the scale parameter and reliability function, and the results show that the proposed Compressed Bayes method is better than the Standard Bayes and the Maximum Likelihood methods, while the proposed Developed Bayes method verified that it is better than the Moment method in estimating the scale parameter and the reliability function; and better than the Maximum Likelihood estimation method in estimating the reliability function, and using any of the proposed methods (Compressed Bayes, Developed Bayes) is better than the Standard Bayes method. In case of censored data the simulation experiments proved that the Maximum Likelihood estimation method is better than the Standard Bayes estimation method. A comparison of preference estimation methods is done by using the two standards; Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
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استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ باعداد التلاميذ المقبولين في الصف الاول الابتدائي في العراق للفترة (1969 - 2012)
Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict The Numbers of Pupils Admitted To The First - Grader In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2012)
اسم المؤلف:
شيماء ابراهيم خليل
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
هاني عبد الله حسن
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دبلوم عالي
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2014
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
يعد التنبؤ بالسلوك المستقبلي للسلاسل الزمنية من الموضوعات الهامة في العلوم الاحصائية ولذلك فان التنبؤ بعدد التلاميذ المقبولين في الصف الاول الابتدائي في العراق يحتل مكانة هامة باعتبار الاتاحة الشاملة للتعليم الابتدائي لاطفال العالم تعد واحدة من الاهداف ال | The prediction of future behavior of the time series of important topics in science statistical therefore predict the number of students admitted to the first grade in Iraq occupies an important position as universal access to primary education for the children of the world is one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG'S) and goals of " A World Fit Children's " (WFFC).Data were collected for research, which represents the number of students admitted to the first - grader in Iraq for the period (1969 - 2012) of the Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperation - Central Bureau of Statistics has been introduced into the statistical program spss version 18.In this research was the comparison between the two methods to predict which way each of the Box and Jenkins methods Exponential Smoothing to know the best way to predict based on the criteria (MAPE and BIC) where the method has proved its superiority to Exponential Smoothing way box - Jenkins
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مقدرات الامكان الاعظم الموزونة الحصينة ومقارنتها مع طرائق اخرى لانموذج اللوجستك مع تطبيق عملي
Robust Weighted Maximum Likelihood Estimates And Their Comparsion With Other Methods of Logistic Model With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
شرين علي حسين
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
نزار مصطفى جواد الصراف
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2009
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان معظم الدراسات في موضوع انموذج انحدار اللوجستك تاخذ طابعا اكثر تقدما في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. وتاتي اهمية الحاجة الى تطبيق الطرائق الحصينة عندما تكون بيانات الظاهرة المدروسة ملوثة , | In most of studies about the logistic regression model take in it's nature more progness in the procedure of acurate statistical analysis which aim getting estimators of a high level of efficiency , and importance of it's necessity to applicate of the robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated , it means some of the observations vareit clearly from other observations called outliers which may produce estimators untrustworthy and so the decision will be false about the problem that we are trying to study it.From this point was the goal of this research in reaching robust estimators to estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model through study some of theis estimators (method (WMLE) , method( M ) and method (Lp) ) and that by supposing three levels of contamination (0%,10%,30%). Also we use simulation in this study to compete between methods of studied estimator for all levels of the contaminated studies.In this thesis the researcher concluded the success of the method (WMLE (w1)) in estimate parameters of binary response logistic regression model, in comparsion with studied estimate methods by depending on statistical measures : Bias, Mean Square Error for parameters and model.Also the researcher specified a chapter for applying and using method WMLE (w1) on real data of angina pectoris patients which taking from Ibn - al - Nafees hospital for the purpose of estimate parameters of binary logistic regression model.
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استعمال المجموعات الضبابية ونماذج بوكس جينكنز في السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ ببعض نسب التلوث في مياه الشرب لمدينة بغداد
Using The Fuzzy Sets And Box - Jenkins Models In Time Series To Prediction Some Rates of Pollution In Baghdad City
اسم المؤلف:
سيف عدنان سلمان
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
احلام احمد جمعة
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2014
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
There are many statistical methods used in time series analysis and that of the most famous of these methods Box - Jenkins models, which include a number of stages needed to reach the best model is used to predict the process, and that this method requires the availability of a number of conditions required in the process of building the model and assumptions about the nature of the time series being linear, a natural or stationary , and with the growing interest in the topic of time - series modern methods used in time series analysis and foremost of which is the use of Fuzzy logic and Fuzzy sets in the time series as one of the most modern methods to predict is the most important alternatives to traditional statistical methods have emerged they possess the ability to in finding solutions to various areas and it does not require the availability of the conditions due to the use of traditional models which are difficult achieved in most cases. Then in this paper the use of the two methods in the time series, , (Box Jenkins models, and Fuzzy time series) in the forecasting process as each method include special stages are different from the other, through the study of the monthly chemical tests for solids dissolved rate data behavior and examine the turbidity of the water drinking in the city of Baghdad for the period (January 2004) and up (December, 2013) and a better model to predict through the application and the comparison of the results in these ways by using a number of statistical standards and ones (MSE) and (MAPE)
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توظيف الخوارزمية الوراثية في انشاء تصاميم القطاعات غير الكاملة المتزنة
Construction of Balanced Incomplete Blocks Design (B.I.B.D.) By Using Genetic Algorithms (G.A.)
اسم المؤلف:
سهام دنخا خوشابا
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2006
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
Some times we faced problem that either the number of treatments used in an experiment more than the number of experimental units inside the particular block or the blocks size large than the number of replicated of treatments, then we have to use incomplete blocks design (I.B.D.); in this design either the treatment appear in block or not; that means the treatment may appear or not in a block, also when the treatments appear in a pair of treatments, this design called balanced incomplete block design (B.I.B.D.). This case makes the B.I.B.D. important by using the randomization to distribute the treatments inside the blocks and create Incidence Matrix, where its elements either zero when the treatment not appears or one when the treatment appears. This kind of design is important in many fields of study especially in the agriculture and in the veterinary medicine …etc. The aims of the previous studies was to find the way for construction of B.I.B.D..Till now the studies keep going to find out the new ways or methods for construction.The aim of this study is to find out a new way for construction. A new way for construction the incident matrix by using steps for building “Genetic Algorithms”, is discussed Genetic Algorithms are theoretically and empirically proven to provide a robust search in a complex spaces.
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مقارنة بعض اختبارات ملاءمة نماذج السلاسل الزمنية ذات الرتب الدنيا باستخدام المحاكاة
Comparison of Some Diagnostic Checking Tests For Time Series Models With Low Order By Using Simulation
اسم المؤلف:
سهاد احمد احمد
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
احلام احمد جمعة
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2009
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان دراسة السلسلة الزمنية تتطلب دقة في وصف ملامح الظاهرة (العملية) التي تتولد منها، سواء من حيث تفسير طبيعة تلك الظاهرة وسلوكها واستخدام النتائج للتنبوء بسلوكها في المستقبل اخذين بنظرالعناية التحقق عما يمكن حدوثه عند تغيير بعض معلمات الانموذج. ويمكن استخ | Studying time series requires an accurate description for the features of phenomena (procedure) that generates time series according to its nature and behavior interpretation. After that, we can use these results for forecasting to the future taking under consideration : examine to what would happen after changing some of the model parameters, use the standard (depended) methods for testing the accuracy of the identified model which has ability for taking errors in the procedure, and provide balancing condition between model diagnosing and simplicity as well as. This research aims to use some of tests concern with diagnosing of the identified model, and make comparisons among these tests meanwhile. The researcher took some of tests, especially, the modern ones, represented by Dm test which depends on partial autocorrelation function, and which depends on autocorrelation function. We use ARMA models with lower order : [AR (1), MA (1), ARMA (1,1)] that Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, we use the tests concern with linear hypothesis diagnosing for the previous three models, represented by squaring the model errors. We use also, the modified tests in this field. In addition, we use some of nonlinear models, as "Threshold" model, and taking self - exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) as a special case. The analysis of time series considered time range under model stationary. Methodology of the research depends on both the theoretical part (Statistical theory usage), and the empirical part (Simulation). The structure of the research has mainly based on four chapters as follow : chapter ONE, consists an introduction, the goal of the research and the historical literature. While chapter TWO, covers the statistical methods that take part describing and modeling the time series, as well as explain the main concepts of time series such as "Stationary". We show also, the "mixed" model with lower order, crossing to examining the diagnosing through some of the standard and modern tests which depends on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of the standardized residual series that obtained from the original series of the model, by testing the randomization of the model errors and make checking for its convenience and accuracy. Furthermore, we use the modified tests : ( , , )and (Kwan & Sim) test represented by ( , , ) to determine the linear hypothesis diagnosing by compute the standardized residual series squares of the error in the previous three models that mentioned above. We use nonlinear model (SETAR) as well as. Chapter THREE, devoted for the empirical part which contains illustrations to all of what mentioned in chapter two. The researcher has designed some of experiments for purpose of comparing the (standard, modern and modified) tests through computing (P - value) for each model at (0.01) significant level at many simulated parameters, with different sample sizes, and for a number of periods of lags at each sample size, by replicating the experiment (1000) times. Finally, chapter FOUR comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the researcher had recommended
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استعمال اشجار الانحدار التصنيفية والانحدار اللوجستي في تقدير انموذج تجميعي والمقارنة بينهما مع تطبيق عملي
Using Classification Regression Trees And Logistic Regression To Estimate Additive Model Comparison With Application
اسم المؤلف:
سهاد احمد احمد
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تعاني بعض الظواهر من وجود حالة اضطراب في بياناتها بالاضافة الى صعوبة صياغتها وخصوصا مع وجود عدم وضوح في استجابتها، او لكثرة الاختلافات الجوهرية التي تعتري الوحدات التجريبية التي تم اخذ هذه البيانات منها. فعندما تزداد المجاميع لمجتمع ما, لا يمكن اعتبار ذل | Often suffer phenomena and there is disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. When growing groups of a population, it can't be regarded as a homogeneous population is increasing because the dispersion between the experimental units in response to that population as well as the error will also be increasingly difficult to build a model of that population.So there was a need to include an estimation method on the classification or underlying discrimination for these pilot units using discrimination or create segments for each item of these pilot units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more in line style.Has been resorting to the use of the method of a modern and flexible classification is based on the neighborhoods between the views represented by the response variable by classification regression trees : CART. It was the use bayesian approach and the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and collect trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage fork on the other hand, represented the bayesian classification regression trees : BART.In view of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of science it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science swarm of birds and other originally illustrated algorithm for the purposes of technology pertaining to distinguish between images or vibrational radio, etc., can be harnessed to serve the knowledge of statistics, which is based Turn on the information production and to achieve success in it. So is the use of genetic algorithm and submit a proposal by modified genetic algorithm, in addition to C4.5 and ID3 algorithms. And without losing the generality has been used as a tool of logistic analysis as important tool.It was a whole performance along with an estimate of the general additive model method of classification of all the methods mentioned in the above. Fitted model as modern and flexible overcomes curse of dimensionality that may occur most modern phenomena of the times when their data analysis.It was the use of simulated samples of different sizes (200, 400, 600) with (1000) replicates. The application was performed on patients with diabetes data for those aged (15) years and below are taken from the sample size (200) was withdrawn from the children hospital/ Al - Eskan/ Baghdad.As proof of the goodness of classification has been using the misclassification error, and as proof of the goodness of estimation has been using the root mean squares error.Was reached important conclusions through a process of differentiation among the six methods above, the superiority of the Classification and Regression Trees Algorithm (CART) is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in empirical side, when proposed Genetic Algorithm is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in applied side.
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دراسة احصائية لوفيات الاطفال الرضع لمحافظة نينوى للفترة 1987 - 2004
اسم المؤلف:
سما سعدي علي الهاشمي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عبد الحسين زيني
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2005
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
يعد الاحصاء السكاني ( الديموغرافي ) من العلوم المهمة في الوقت الحاضر، فهو الدراسة الاحصائية للسكان وخصائصهم وفعالياتهم وتغييراتهم من حيث التكاثر والوفاة والانتقال والعوامل التي تؤثر فيها والنتائج التي تنشا عنها. من اهم التغيرات التي تحدث على السكان ه
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اشتراك توزيعي ويبل وتكوين توزيع الباي ويبل
The Participation of Two Weibull Distributions And The Formation of Bi - Weibull Distribution
اسم المؤلف:
سلام جاسم محمد الساعدي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
علي عبد الحسين صالح الوكيل
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2007
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية باعتباره علما يتعامل مع اعمار المعدات ولاسيما احتمالات البقاء ومتوسط الحياة وهذا يعود بالاساس الى التطور التكنولوجي السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات. وعلى هذا الاساس فان در | The wide increasing concern of studying the topic of reliability as a science dealing with equipment ages, especially the survival and life average probabilities rendered to the fast technological development and the utility of complicated electronic systems in various fields. On that basis, the studying the topic of reliability and the connection between the theoretical and applied sides together have a great importance because they are considered the indicator towards stating the extent of efficiency and capacity of the machine and the work system without damages for a long period of time, accordingly, the study of (Weibull Distribution) is a sample of failure functions because this distribution is suitable when failure rates are high relatively at the operating start, then these rates decrease gradually with time increase. Accordingly, the thesis includes mainly a display of a new sample of joint distributions which is known as (Bi - Weibull). This kind of distribution gives more elasticity and more accurate results.Hence, the basic statistical measures and the parameter estimation of (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) were found through (MLE) by using the simulation method (Inverse Formula). In order to reach the research aim, the research is divided into five chapters. Chapter one deals with the topic general backgrounds and function definition including the reliability function. Whereas chapter two is dedicated to expose the methods of estimating the parameters of the (2 - Parameter Weibull Distribution) with displaying the basic statistical measures of (2 and 3 - Parameter Weibull Distributions). As to chapter three, it includes the theoretical side of (Bi - Weibull Distribution) with the exposure of the following three states of this distribution : - (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (5 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (6 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) with their basic statistical measures.Chapter four manifests the research programs and simulation results as well as result analysis. Chapter five includes the conclusions and recommendations the researcher has arrived at
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مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة التمهيدية لدوال اللب متعدد المتغيرات وتوظيفها في الدوال التمييزية مع تطبيق عملي
Comparison of Some Smoothing of Estimate Methods For Multivariate Kernel Functions And Employs Them In Discriminants Functions With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
سكينة شامل جاسم
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
لقاء علي محمد العلوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2015
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان التحليل التمييزي (Discriminant Analysis ) غالبا ما يعاني من مشكلة صغر حجم العينة ( SSS ) Small Simple Size خاصة عندما يتم تطبيقها لتصنيف انماط عالية الابعاد مثل (التعرف على الوجه، حركة اليد وحركة الجينات الوراثية و...)، او عندما تكون البيانات لديها | The linear discriminant analysis often suffer from small sample size (sss) problem.especially when they are applied for the classification of high_dimenssional patterns. Such as (face recognition) or when data is distributed normal distribution but when they are non _ linear and has spread widely. We are dealing with this problem by using a technique of kernel discriminant analysis. because this technique depends on the kernel density estimation which belong to the class of estimates. it is commonly perform Avery important technique for visualizing data distribution and smoothing. It is unimportant to procedure in the explanatory data analysis, as that used in kernel discriminate analysis well known by researchers. To identify statistical. patterns. it is also known that these estimates are. Based mainly on the choice of bandwidth parameter end controlled on smoothing of estimation and to choice kernel function. has been the use of carton methods to estimate band width parameter it is : plugin methad Least square Cross validation method Smoothed Cross validation method Are selected as a parameter of bandwidth and use in kernel density estimation (KDE( and then employ them in kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) approach. Through the joint base for groups is a kernel discriminant rule (KDR) which rely heavily on density classified (f ?_j) and probability of prior (? ?_j).therefore the problem of multiple class(The use of several variables) will be more important and visible to be parameter of bandwidth is different when compared with various densities classified. Finally, it was real data from the general blood cancer disease and style simulation application, as it was reached that way (KDA - SCV) is best when using the above standard compared with other methods because it gave the misclassification rate least.in the practical side results showed in such a way that nine people were the first (n1... n9) of the first group are infected with disease among 50 people is infected and 12 people from the second group infected with the Lisu people living with and they (n45... n50 and n1... n6 ).
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مقارنة بعض الطرائق اللبية في تقدير نماذج الانحدار اللامعلمي بوجود بيانات تامة وغير تامة
A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods For Kernel Models In Complete And Incomplete Data
اسم المؤلف:
سعد كاظم حمزة
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
مناف يوسف
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2009
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان استخدام النماذج المعلمية يتطلب العديد من الشروط الاولية التي يجب توافرها لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثون الى البحث عن نماذج اقل صرامة من النماذج المعلمية وتمثلت هذه النماذج بالنماذج ال | Using of parametric models require a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models. One of nonparametric methods important for estimating nonparametric regression function known as (kernel estimation) to be used for estimating any statistical function which is (smooth estimator) free of disorders modifying the observations and approximating estimated regression function to real nonparametric regression function. Hence, the researcher showed some kernel methods to estimate the nonparametric regression function in both cases complete data (FNW, FLLS, VNW, VLLS) and incomplete data (FSNW, VSNW, FINW, VINW, FSLLS, VSLLS, FILLS, VILLS) and compared them through the simulation method as well as using different models and different sizes of samples and variants. From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best smoother was (FLLS) by using the first model, while by using the second model, it was shown that the best smoother was (VLLS) and in the third model was (VNW). In case of incomplete data, the best smoother was (VSLLS) by using the first and second models while by using the third model, the best smoother was (VSNW)
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بعض المقدرات الحصينة لقدرة الطيف وفق الانموذج المختلط ARMA مع تطبيق عملي
Some Robust Estimators For Power Spectrum According To The Arma Models With Application
اسم المؤلف:
سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تهدف الاطروحة ايجاد افضل مقدر(التقدير الامثل) لدرجة ارتداد الانموذج المختلط ARMA ذي الدرجات المتدنية لقدرة الطيف Power Spectrum والحصول على امثلية التنبؤ، اذ ان مشكلة الاطروحة تكمن في خطا اعتماد اساليب تقدير درجة الارتداد قبل اطفاء اثر الشواذ التجميعية ( | The Aim of The thesis is finding the best estimator (optimal estimate) the degree of rebound mixed model ARMA with low scores to Power Spectrum and get optimizing forecasting, As the problem of the thesis lies the mistake of adopting methods of estimating rebound degree before extinguishing (AO) Outliers (additives Values) in an estimate operation based on data series without getting rid of the effect of the presence of Outliers. According to This thesis addressing the Existence of the Outliers, in particular, (AO) Outliers after addressing the existence of Outliers, then starting estimate the optimization for a rebound.When interest in Robust estimates we must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models is defined due to lack of stability in addition to the difficulty of knowing specimen probabilistic it appears at first paragraph leap suddenly are called stereotypes Bahawaz Innovation Outlier, late to be the behavior of independent gay behavior values the other called Bahawaz aggregate Additive Outliers.When interest in estimates fortified must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models Unlimited Parameters is defined due to lack of Stationarity in addition to the difficulty of knowing probabilistic model ,it appears at first paragraph sudden leap are called Innovation Outlier, or be an independent behavior of other values called Additive Outliers.Shows the experimental side of the Thiess through a standard MSE, MAPE preference of Robust method on the Unrobes for all sample sizes and for all primary parameters assumed values, as well as for all default frequencies values (Wi), have an adverse impact in terms of efficiency when models ARMA (0,1), ARMA ( 0.2), and very slight variation when the model ARMA (1,1) the impact of outliers and the supposed frequencies (w) = [1/4, 1 / 3.3, 1 / 2.5, ½] small.The nature of the electrical signal surveyed of heart (ECG - Electrocardiogram) a vital signal , unstable and the form of Signal spectrum reflects the Performance of the human heart muscle and its health.is random changes sharp and irregular in time series represents the work of the heart of a natural person (without straining) include what is known Outliers caused by its actual nature not the result of errors in the measurement or the register, which makes them do not follow a particular distribution, led to the difficulty of conducting Assessments for Power spectrum according to the traditional methods of estimation that assumes distributed statistically,In addition to that the data generation processes require the availability of basic assumptions is inconsistent with the nature of the Heart signal ECG, and to minimize or reduce these assumptions adopted by the simulation approach often leads to unrealistic and far from the real system results and establishes a breakthrough for good properties of these estimates that we have made it necessary to adopt the idea of Robust estimates (M - estimate) in accordance with the Robust functions (Huber, Hample, Tukey, Andrew) in addition to the method of maximum likelihood Mle according to restricted simulations in the practical side, which serves as a purification process or soften the Estimators resulting from follow of statistical estimation methods on real data to determine the best estimators of Power spectrum and the search for the best Model and section distribution , and then apply the result of a trade - offs in according to indicator the indirect transition of the speed of the signal (?/S2) between the Estimation functions and Distributions on eight of combinations of Mixed model ARMA (p, q) and estimating MSE, RMSE and selecting the optimum combination which is ARMA (2,2) with Extreem value distribution and with Hampel function at section 200, which amounted to (MSE = 0.000109).
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الاتساق الذاتي وتحليل المكونات الرئيسة
The Self - Consistency And Principal Component'S Analysis
اسم المؤلف:
سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2006
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تعني عبارة " الاتساق - الذاتي " اختبارا لمحور المكونات الرئيسة عندما يرتكز التوزيع على المحور الذي يعطي تقريبا بسيطا للتوزيع الاصلي متعدد المتغيرات.جرت عملية الاختبار بفحص نقص المطابقة Lack of Fit Test في ضوء طريقة البوتستراب (Bootstrap ) اي ( تكرار ا | The term " Self - Consistency " means ; examine the Self - consistency of a principal components axis : when a distribution is centered on a principal component axis, which provides a simple straight line approximation to a multivariate distribution.A principal component axis of a random vector X; is self - consistent if each point on the axis corresponds to the mean of X given that X projects orthogonally on to that point.this examination is done by " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test applied on to two kinds of data set (real and simulation) with different samples (small, medium, large),depending on the probability values for getting levels of significance (to assess the self - consistency of principal component axis) which is based on the frame work of the data set, whether it will be true (towards to the elliptical form for the multivariate normal distribution) or generated data set using the restrictive simulation ( towards to the asymptotic spherical form for multivariate normal distribution ) that's for estimating the self - consistency by the hypothesis ;Hk : Yk is self - consistent for Xprincipal component analysis for factor analysis is use with the aim of analyzing the large number of variables and their effective factors by the factor rotation procedure which is assumes also the multivariate normal distribution, with proposed technique, based on the smallest column on X for different sizes of samples ( small " 5 - 20 " , medium " 25 - 50 ", and large " 60 - 100 ").High level of fit, is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit" test in all sample size for all research variable's; with little difference and the best for male group of the results for female group on the size ( 5 - 35 ) , conversely for another size's.and also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the small sample size ( 5 - 20 ) for true data set using direct oblimin rotation method for male group, in the medium sample size ( 25 - 50) using the same method with direct method( None) for female group.In generated data set by normal restricted simulation technique, also high level of fit is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test in all sample size's and for all sample Size's (small, medium, large) and for tow group's (male, female), which indicate to the usefulness of using the restricted simulation technique to take pure data set, and the model with high level of stationary.also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the different sample size's, using the varimax rotation method for tow Group's (male, female), the two method's ( none, direct oblimin rotation) in some of sample size's which refers to corresponding the normal stat with varimax rotation method ,that is well known of its object for simplified explaining the factor matrix by maximization the loading variance
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مقارنة بعض الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية لبعض تصاميم القياسات المكررة
A Comparisoin of Some Parametric And Nonparametric Methods For Some Repeated Measures Designs
اسم المؤلف:
سجى محمد حسين علي الهاشمي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2005
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
في الكثيرمن الدراسات الطبية والتربوية والسيكولوجية (علم النفس)وعلم الاجتماع نشاهد بان المفردات (subjects) تتكرر تحت مختلف الشروط التجريبية((conditions والتي تسمى بالمعالجات (treatments) وان البيانات المتجمعة من مختلف الوحدات التجريبية تفترض لان تكون مستقل | In many medical , educational , psychology and sociology studies we find that the same subjects repeated under different experimental conditions which called treatments. The collected data from different experimental units suppose to be independent while the observation for the same experimental units will be dependent. The term repeated measures designs is called for this type of data in which the response for every experimental units or subjects is tested or measured under a number of different experimental conditions. Our attention will be on the case of a univariate response variable. There are many procedures for testing the null hypothesis that there is no treatments effects, depends on the number of treatments. either the same subjects are tested under two treatments or tested under three treatments or more. The aim of this study is comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods of repeated measures designs for two treatments through applying the tests on true experiments data. and comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods for three treatments or more, which included two designs which are the complete randomize block design when the ANOVA conditions are satisfied. And the One - way generalized repeated measures model when does not assume specified form of the variance - covariance matrix.Simulation procedures are used in order to compare probability of type one error and power of the test for all methods. In addition , the researcher presented the suggested methods and analyzing the results by comparing them with the other methods for the mentioned designs.
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مقارنة اسلوب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول
A Comparison of Bayesian Approach With Another Methods To Estimate Reliability Function For Pareto Distribution of The First Kind
اسم المؤلف:
ستار محمد صالح
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2006
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول (Pareto Distribution of the First Kind) في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات وفي حالة عدم توافرها وتم توظيف اسلوب المحاكاة (Simulation) بطريقة مونت كارلو (Mont - Carlo) للمقارنة بين طرا | In this dissertation, an estimation of reliability function for the Pareto Distribution of the First Kind has been done in the case of exists a prior information and not exists. A simulation approach by Mont - Carlo method is used to comparisons between the methods of estimation to find the best method of estimation this function. To realizes the object of search, the search is divided into four chapters. The first chapter contain an introduction, object of search and the review of literature. The second chapter contain the theoretical part. The third chapter include the experimental part, and finally the fourth chapter include the conclusions that researcher find they and recommendations suggested from him about the search. The researcher find that the Bayes approach is the best in estimation of reliability function comparing with the other method of estimation through depending on the two statistical measurements integral Mean Squared error (IMSE), and integral Mean Absolute percentage error (IMAPE).
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تحليل البيانات الثنائية لدراسة العوامل المؤثرة في حدوث التشوهات الولادية في مستشفى البصرة للنسائية والاطفال
Analysis of Binary Data : A Study of Factors Affecting Birthdefects In Basrah Hospital For Maternity & Children
اسم المؤلف:
ساهر حسين زين الثعلبي
الجامعة:
جامعة البصرة - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد
اسم المشرف:
زهرة حسن عباس التميمي
عبد الكريم حسين صبر الجاروري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2008
مكان الجامعة:
البصرة
المستخلص:
Basrah can be considered as a city that has been suffering form pollution more than any other city in the world of today. This is due to the successive wars it has undergone, the waste of the petroleum, gas, and petrochemical factories leave behind as well as the electric power generating firms this city contains. Furthermore, the location of Basrah by the sea has made the city liable to have epidemics, diseases, and birth defect. The phenomenon of distorted births is but the focus of this thesis.The researcher draws the attention of those undertaking direct or indirect responsibility so as to arrive at appropriate basic solutions. This study is an attempt at pinpointing the factors that directly or indirectly lead to the distorted births in Iraq in general, and in the city of Basrah in particular. Statistics is in order. The hypothesis of this study is that radiation may be the most serious cause of birth distortion. To verify this very hypothesis, the city of Basrah is chosen as the population and The Basrah Hospital for Maternity and children as the sample that covers the files or reports of the new - born babies during the period January - April, 2007. This sample is called " sample A". This is on the one hand. On the other hand, a special form is developed by the researcher and it is this form that forms "Sample B".Since the data collected is of a binary or dichotomous type, it is concerned with whether there is some birth distortion or not. That is why the dependable variable is referred to by 1 or 0 respectively. This type of variable is often indicated to by responding with ither "Yes", if there birth distortion; or "No" hen there is no birth distortion in medicine research. Statistically speaking, the SPSS ready - made program has been applied to data. This program has been used in social sciences and medicine research with high accuracy. The present research worker has applied a logistic model or pattern so as to study the factors that influence the occurrence of birth distortion. Among the results arrived at by the researcher is the residence of the parents Thisresult confirms the hypothesis that states that the regions exposed to the uranium radiation plays an important role in spreading birth distortion. Relatives have also proved to be influential and this is what is referred to as the hereditary or genetics variable. Finally, Rh factor is very effective in this respect. For this reason, the researcher supports all the calls for the authorities of both the public and private sectors at regional national and international levels urging them to do all they can to save the society catastrophic errors
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طرائـــق بيــز فــي تحليــل نمــوذج القياس الاقتصادي المكاني مع تطبيق عملي
Bayes Methods In Analyzing Spatial Econometrics Model With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
سامي غني خضير عطره
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2011
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان الخاصية الاساسية لتمييز البيانات المكانية عن بيانات السلاسل الزمنية هي الترتيب المكاني للمشاهدات , وعينات البيانات المكانية تمثل مشاهدات ترتبط بنقاط او مواقع وتتميز هذه البيانات بان ارتباطها يضعف كلما بعدت المسافة وكذلك تتميز بتدرج المكان (( المناطقية | The main property to differentiate the spatial data from time series data is the spatial arrangement of observations and the samples of spatial data represent observations related to points or locations these data are distinguished with the weakness of their connection each time the distance getting far away and the place graduation (location)on the spatial relations of observations are represented in matrix named spatial weights matrix. The spatial econometrics is used in following up the spatial effects like the spatial dependence of observations in different points of place, and spatial heterogeneity arising from relations or parameters model that change with sample data in each time we move within the place , those two points have been neglected in traditional econometrics because of their sinconsistency of statistical assumptions and when taking those spatial effects into consideration ,the statistical influence will be of high efficiency. On the contrary, ignoring these effects will lead to loss the information and will not be as efficient as the dependant sample.Because of the difficulty of deriving the posterior function (on which the Bayesian inference depends) up on applying the Bayesian methods especially in cases that the number of probable models is very large as computing the posterior functions for all these samples requires integration for large dimensions functions which is very difficult Mathematically or inapplicable that requires proper methods can deal with such cases like Gibbs and Metropolis - Hastings sampling by analyzing the posterior distribution to number of conditional distributions for each parameter in the model and then the simplicity of inference for each parameter in the model.The matrix of spatial weights is built by registering the contiguity relations for each location with others in a matrix row (w?) and given (1) if there is a relation between two locations (wij=1) and zero, if it doesn’t (wij=0)as i and j refer to the rows and columns in sequence. For making the summation of each row in the matrix w? equal to 1 , the elements of matrix will be calculated according to the proportion : wij/ ?wij and i=1,2…,n j=1 Consequently, we will get the adjusted matrix W.The practical side was focused on the counting of spatial autoregressive model parameters, and these parameters is the vector ? and it is an ordinary regression parameters vector, and error variance parameter (?2) , and the most important of them is a countig of the parameter (?) which is represent spatial dependance parameter.In order to show the role of the spatial, the practical side included taking the real population for childrens between(1 - 19) year, that had iron deficiency anemia (due to from iron deficiency) that admitted to children’s hospitals in Kurkh district of Baghdad (which had been divided into five geographic regions) for 2010. We have suggested that computing the elements in the adjusted matrix to be on basis of the actual length proportion of the joint borders among different locations that lead to get the accurate estimated value of spatial dependence parameter، where value result of spatial dependence parameter (?) was (0.43) when use Metropolis - Hastings sampling method while value of this parameter when use spatial outoregressive function and by using the adjusted matrix was( 0.57) and value of this parameter when use the same regression function but by using the suggested matrix was (0.85).
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مقدرات بيز لدالة المعولية الضبابية للتوزيع الاسي باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيقها على الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية
The Fuzzy Reliability Function Bayes Estimators For Exponential Distribution Using The Simulation With It Is Application On The State Company For Elictrical Industeries
اسم المؤلف:
زينة ياوز عبد القادر اوجي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عماد حازم عبودي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2009
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
يدرس البحث الضبابية والتي مفهومها ان كل قيمة تقع ضمن فترة معينة،ونعتمد في تحديد حدود هذه الفترة على الخبرات السابقة حول موضوع الظاهرة المدروسة.وفي بعض الاحيان يصعب تحديد هذه الفترة ونتعامل مع القيمة الضبابية وما حولها من القيم القريبة دون الاعتماد على ا | This paper concerned with studying the fuzzy which means that each value is within specific period and to determinate the limits of this period depends on previous expertises about the studies phenomena subject.Some times it is difficult to determine this stage or period ,in this case we deal with the fuzzy values and other proximate ones without depending on previous expertises ,because they are not available or because of te differences in points of researches,view about the determination of minimum and maxmum restriction for there values.Through this research we will treat fuzzy lifetime data that each value does not have minimum and maximum limitation which enable us to appoint the sutable belonging degrees but all lifetime data have minimum restriction which represent the begininning life time , and maximum one that represents the end of lifetime And by using membership function of Ching to determing a membership function for those data , This paper discussed two procedures to estimate the fuzzy reliability ,Bayes procedure that includes the following : 1 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter.2 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter. 3 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes a fuzzy parameter. 4 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter And FRDP (Fuzzy Reliability Definition Procedure) that uses component trapezium method,to find numerical integration ,by using the Exponential distribution form for sample data,and Gama distribution for the prier distribution for the parameter of Exponential distribution ,and four value for sample size.And depending on the results that have been conducted in the experimental side ,it is shown that bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability when the fuzzy sample data have membership degree equal to 0.1for samples of small sizes. When the failure times average value is bigger than one ,so Bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for small samples sizes,and FRDP is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for sizes of big samples The data which have been taken from the state company for electrical industries of foundation machine Toshiba are used as well after bayes method and FRDP method are applied to estimate the fuzzy reliability,it is noticed that results of both the applied and experimental side are th
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مقارنة الاساليب المستخدمة في تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة مع جانب تطبيقي
The Comparison of Methods Used In Determining The Principal Components Number With An Applied Aspect
اسم المؤلف:
زينة ياوز عبد القادر
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2004
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
استخدم تحليل المركبات الرئيسة في تحليل الكثير من الظواهر الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، ومن هذه الظواهر اخترنا ظاهرة تخص شريحة واسعة من مجتمعنا الا وهي ظاهرة تاخر حصول التدريسي الجامعي على اللقب العلمي التالي، ولان تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة الداخلة في تحليل ا | The principal components analysis is used in analyzing many economic and social phenomena; and one of them is related to a large group in our society who are the university instructors. This phenomenon is the delay occurred in getting university instructor to his next scientific title. And as the determination of the principal components number inside the principal components depends on using many methods, we have compared between three of these methods that are : (BARTLETT, SCREE DIAGRAM, JOLLIFFE). We concluded that JOLLIFFE method was the best one in analyzing the studying phenomenon data among these three methods, we found the most distinguishing factors effecting on the phenomenon was (the number of the lectures the university instructor has, the administrative routine, the entertainment activities, family situation, shortage in academic staff, pages number, the use of the internet and the political attitude). So , we should begin with treating these factors as a first step for motivating university instructor to develop his thinking capabilities.
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تحليل التجارب ثنائية العوامل المتزنة وغير المتزنة لبيان اثر عاملين على بعض صفات محصول الشلب في العراق
اسم المؤلف:
زينة ابراهيم حسن رشيد
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
احمد شهاب احمد
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2012
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
مما لاشك فيه ان التجربة العاملية (التي تهتم في وقت واحد وتجربة واحدة بدراسة عاملين فاكثر ),اذ ان لكل عامل مستويات ,وبتوافيق مستويات العوامل تتشكل المعالجات العاملية , هذه التجربة لها اهمية كبيرة في الجوانب التطبيقية وتتسم بالمزايا : - 1انها تسهم في تقلي | 1. It contributes to reduce the cost, time, efforts, and experimental units as a result of the implementation of a single experiment, rather than two or more experiments.2. Provide us by information of the main effects of factors and the effects of interactions of these factors.3. The possibility to compare all different combinations of two or factors to be studied.4. These experiments provide an opportunity to compare the levels of each factor separately, as if the experiment was devoted to him alone.Therefore, the information that we get from factorial experiments always be more perfect and realistic than those we get from single - factor experiments.The factorial experiments held by adopting equilibrium that is oriented common and natural , it might generated cases of unbalance ( what is allocated of the number of plots for each uneven factorial treatment), which may be done on purpose by the researcher (performing the experiment) or it may be due to lack of materials or resources, which leads to identify groups of processing that will be dealt with, or for other reasons like damage or loss pieces or results of experimental subject to certain processing. Such situations cause them a problem of how to analysis it, so the goal of this message is to research deeper theoretically to contribute in find solutions for the research problem and the vast knowing of the analysis methods of the balanced and unbalanced factorial experiments, with discussing the possibility of propose a method or technique to analysis this case. since been in separate theoretical aspect of this message addressed to several ways in addition to provide a proposed way for analysis. The theoretical beside the practical aspects has been improved (Chapter three) to take an advantage of a realistic data experiments (not analyzed) carried out with the Public Board for Agricultural Research (the party was made contract with) where the experiment has been analyzed (balanced and unbalanced factorials) to study the impact of the rice verities factor and also the distances of planting the rice for many characters of the rice crops, as well as study the impact factor rice varieties and planting dates factor on some of the qualities of the rice crop has implemented in Mashkhab station in the province of Najaf, and we used the methods of the analysis presented in addition to the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the moral of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are available to use each method of analysis and the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the significant of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are made available to use all method of methods of analysis and the suggested method was as as follows : 1 - perferred to use method frequencies the expected cell in the case of that the data is unbalanced and semi - proportional.2 - perferred to use method un weighted means in the case of that the data is unbalanced and disproportional.3 - perferred to use method of harmonic mean in the case of that the data is unbalanced and two case proportional and disproportional.4 - prefer to using the suggested method (median method ) in the event that the data is is unbalanced and disproportional.5 - prefer to data analysis unbalanced without trying to estimate missing values.
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دراسة تحليلية لتصاميم تجارب القطع المنشقة SPED والقطاعات المنشقة SBED مع تطبيق عملي
Analytic Study For Split Plot Experimental Design (SPED) And Split Block Experimental Design (SBED) With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
زينب فالح حمزة
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2009
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان فكرة القطع المنشقة كانت قد وجدت لتضيف الى مزايا ومواصفات التجارب العاملية فوائد تطبيقية تصب في تركيز وتحسين دقة واهمية دراسة تاثيرات العوامل والتفاعلات بينها كونها تحوي اكثر من مصدر للخطا العشوائي ونظرا لما نالته هذه الفكرة من توسع واضافات كثيرة في الج | The idea of split - plot had been found to add to the advantages of factorial experiments and specification of practical interest is in the focus and improving the accuracy and the importance of studying the effects of factors and interactions between them. they contain more than one source of random error because of the indiscriminate earned by the idea of expansion and additions in many theoretical and practical contribution to the diversity and evolution with approved design and since we have observed that the practical uses in our country , though many of it's but limited to the adoption of the idea of split - plot design or split - split only, and purpose of contributing to clarify and depend the understanding and importance in the practical aspects of these additions which has focused the aim of this research (thesis) to provide in depth analytical study of some of the designs , practiculary designs of split - plot and desins of split - Block and what could be concluded from the ideas of the designs that has practical benefits , especially in the agricultural field was taken as the theoretical aspects (models , plans , analysis ) to design of ,split - plots , split - plots systematic arrangement whole plots, split - plot in time & and analysis of Covariance and the design of split - Blokes and the designs of split - split plots & the design of combination between split - plots & split Block then the practical application had been don using The experiments in agricultural (including rice crop ,and crop of peas) Resulted modern & variety data for the year 2008 in the rice research station in Mashkhab in ALnajaf governorate in addition to data for chick pea crop obtained from the station of Rabiaa where the data were analyzed using (SAS - stetictical analysis system). the results of analysis showed that the variety Anbar 33 is the best compared to other varieties for rice crop , and the age 27 day is the best compared to other ages. The designs that have not been able to conducted, which is also not present previously in our country has been adopting the idea of simulation usin visual basic Program, as shown in the appendices ( program 1,2) done by the researcher deals the design of combination between the split _ plots and split Blocks compare it with _the design split _split plot - and the program no(2) that concerned designing split Blocks. The analysis Results for both designs performed to be used in agricultural experiment as it provides high accuracy.
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بناء نموذج محاكاة لتحسين اداء انشطة مركز اورام سرطان البصرة
Building A Simulation Model To Improve The Performance of Activities of The Basrah Cancer Tumors Center
اسم المؤلف:
ريسان عبد الامام زعلان
الجامعة:
جامعة البصرة - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد
اسم المشرف:
محمد عبود طاهر
جواد كاظم العلي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2008
مكان الجامعة:
البصرة
المستخلص:
Basrah Tumor Center is of the most important medical specialized in the field of treating cancer in the south region of Iraq but due to the very great demands of the patients which is increased year by year , it is increased the stress on the capacities of the center materially and in regards to manpower [ doctors, nurses, beds Laboratory systems and medicines] effecting considerably in providing health treatment performance accurately at all facilitations of the irrelevant to the nature of patients reviewed this center thus it is necessitated to deal with this problem by a scientific and advanced mode assisting the center to upgrade his performance towards the best and the necessary to improve the level of its treatment. Upon this base , it is applied the technique of discrete accident simulation by following the mode of upcoming event and Mont Carlo in designing the model on computer representing Basrah Tumor Center in real world detecting the deficiency points and attempt to improve it as well as forecasting with optimist number of doctors, nurses, beds and laboratory systems and instruments leading to lessening the average time of waiting and increasing the means of treatment time providing satisfactory number of beds and laboratory systems and instruments contributing in improving treatment performance at the center at all and applying the model as an experimental tool for number of scenarios and then electing the optimist scenario leading to upgrading the center to theoptimist state in regards to its performance.This study concluded a group of findings the most important of which are : 1. The possibility of the model to represent the tumor center in real world due to the random nature of processes of accessing to the service is occurred and the movement process which is occurred in the suitable time for queues.2. The study showed the inconsideration for the number of doctors so that number of doctors at the tumor clinic is not sufficient nor equivalent with the continuous increment with number of infections and number of patients especially if the situation is stand as in past years without improvement as the study indicated it would never paid the service for half number of patient in 2011 in case the manpower and material possibilities are still in the same conditions without improvement.3. The ability of the model to identify the optimist number of doctors, nurses, beds and laboratory systems and instruments for the years from 2007 through 2011. The study provided a group of recommendation the most important of which : The necessity of applying the findings of the model in re - forming the organization of the center by providing optimist number of doctors, beds, and health cadre as to it is contributed in solving the problems center is suffered from improving treatment performance at all departments of the center.
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استعمال اسلوب بيز لتقدير منظومة المعادلات الانية في حالة المتغير الداخلي مصنف ثنائيا مع تطبيق عملي
Using Bayesian Approach To Estimate The Simultaneous Equations System In Case The Endogenous Variable Is Classified Binary With Application
اسم المؤلف:
ريسان عبد الامام زعلان
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج المعادلات الانية بالطريقة التقليدية من المواضيع المهمة والتي كتب عنها الكثير من البحوث والدراسات وهذه البحوث تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير الا ان التقدير بالطرق البيزية لهذه المعادلات وخصوصا عندما يكون ال | The process of estimation of parameters of the following equations has been done by the traditional method and being considered as an important subject. Many researches and books have been written about the subject and these researchers are different from one to another depended on the methods followed up. But the estimation with Bayesian methods for these equations , especially when the internal variables (classified binary ) being considered one of the subjects that have not been researched greatly. Thus , the researcher has tried to shed light on some methods of Simultaneous equations in case of binary variable by using the classic method and Bayesian method , along with a suggested way that being applied on the samples of the relationship between blood pressure and psychological pressure. The researcher has used the classic method and considered it as raw information for using the method of Bayesian in estimating the Simultaneous equations system. It has been compared between the classic method and Bayesian method and also methods of Bayesian with the suggested method according to the measurement of ( Mse) for specifying the better method for estimation. Problems have been specified lying in non - functionalizing the former information about the parameters in the process of estimation by using the known traditional methods and that lead to the less efficiency if not using it. Thus , it should resort to other methods as method of tradition , The goal of the study is to know the mutual interaction between the blood pressure and psychological pressure and comparing the traditional and Bayesian method in the estimation of Simultaneous equations of internal variable , classified binary by using many methods for Bayesian estimation with the suggested method for getting to estimations that are more close to values of the real parameters. it has been reached to many results ,most of which is the Bayesian method and suggested method that have been better in estimation than the classic method, besides there are mutual effects between blood pressure and psychological pressure and the most losing functions in estimation which is the " Q losing function"
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استعمال الانتروبي مع طرائق اخرى في تقدير دالة بقاء توزيع كاما العام للسكان في العراق
Use The Entropy With Other Methods In Estimating The Survival Function of Generalized Gamma Distribution To The Population
اسم المؤلف:
رغدة زياد طارق العبيدي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تستخدم جداول الحياة في مجالات عديدة في البحوث الديموغرافية والصحية وتمثل مؤشرا هاما للوفاة في المجتمع. ويتم احتساب جداول الحياة من بيانات الوفيات لسنة معينة للمجتمع السكاني، لذا فهو يعبر عن حالة الوفاة للمجتمع.وهناك نوعين من جداول الحياة وهي : (جداول الح | Life tables used in many fields in the demographic and health research is an important predictor of death in population. Then, calculated life tables of mortality data for a particular year the population of the community, so it reflects the rate of death of the community in somehow. There are two types of life tables, called : (Complete Life tables) and were based on the age at death on the basis of single - year age groups (0,1, 2,3,..., 81+) and were usually obtained in a manner comprehensive survey or census in order to provide detailed information on the population. The second type called (Abridged life tables) were assumed from equal death rate for ages converged with each other and are therefore based on the age at death on the five - year age groups (0 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 15,..., 80+) which is different from its predecessor and less accuracy than is obtained in a manner sample survey. In the absence of census of our beloved Iraq, where the last census was in (1997), so be getting the calculated probability of survival through accurate (survival function) within the life tables for single - year age groups was extremely difficult and mired with disorder problems you need to mathematical treatment in accordance with the distribution of probabilistic statistical but it's distributed data showed the distribution of the Generalized Gamma : (GG) with three parameters as the best fit of the data, with this distribution in turn includes the integration of (incomplete gamma function) is implicitly making it more difficult traditional appreciation. So two major goals were arise in this thesis.The first goal of a practical application goal, using (Sprague multipliers) to convert a five - year age groups into single age. The second goal of theory using the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : (POME) in assessing the function of survival and to deal and overcome the turmoil and volatility demographic data collected from (Iraq Household Socio - Economic Survey : IHSES II 2012). This thesis had studied the function estimating survival data mentioned above on two parts : the first part, parametric estimation methods which is the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : POME, the Classical method is the Maximum Likelihood : ML. The second part, has included nonparametric method to estimate survival function by nonparametric method (Kernel Smoothing) been used as (Gaussian function). The estimation methods were compared using statistical criteria are the root mean squares error (RMSE), and the average absolute percentage error (MAPE). Among the most important conclusions, was the preference for a ML method and kernel method when a simulation to get the proportions views of the probability distribution (GG) and in a manner Inverse Transformation Method : ITM only single - year age groups sized by (n = 81) and repeat the experiment (300) replicates. As well as to reach that way entropy is the best method dealt with five - year age groups, where in the case of single - year age groups, the nonparametric kernel was best in when the practical application part. Life tables using MORTPAK program as it has been considered survival function results (UN) calculated values real and comparing the methods of the three appreciation. One of the main recommendations, the use of the (POME) to overcome the turmoil of demographic data, especially a five - year age groups and the use of Sprague data conversion from five - year age groups to transactions single - year age groups and the use of nonparametric method of kernel to assess the function of survival of the single - year age groups and entropy for five - year age groups data.
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تقويم بيانات الوفيات في العراق وتقدير بعض مؤشراتها
Evaluating Mortality Data In Iraq And Estimating Some Related Indices
اسم المؤلف:
رشا عادل سعيد
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2006
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
لقد اتسع نطاق الدراسات الاحصائية ليشمل العديد من الميادين والقطاعات ومن ضمنها قطاع السكان، حيث اهتم الباحثون بدراسة مشاكل التعداد والقياسات المتعلقة بقطاع السكان كالولادات والوفيات والهجرة، وذلك لما لها من اهمية كبرى في مجال الادارة والتخطيط.فجاء هذا ا | The scope of statistical studies has been extended to consist many sectors. One of these sectors is population studies.The researchers studied the problems of census , and data collection related to population (i.e. Births , deaths and migration) , which is considered of great importance in the field of planning , management and development studies. This study comes as a part of the studies focused on demographic characteristics and concentrated on mortality , which is often faced by the problems of incomplete and incorrect data , mainly the lack of mortality records specially in developing countries. The study focused on mortality data in Iraq during the period 1987 - 1997 , aiming at evaluating and estimating some of the related indices such as (life expectancy at birth , age - specific mortality rates , etc.).The study excluded the region of Kurdstan (Arbil , Dohok and Sulaymania) because this region was not included in 1997 census moreover the difficulties in obtaining registered deaths in this region since 1991. The study compares three methods for estimating infant and child mortality rates (i.e. Brass method , Feeney method for estimating infant mortality and Preston - Palloni method) the study concluded that Brass method is the most relevant for estimating infant and child mortality in the light of the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. By using 1997 census data in Iraq and depending on UN. Model for developing countries (general model) , the study achieved to the adjustment of mortality probability (Logit method). In dealing with mortality for (over 5 years old persons) , three methods were compared for estimating completeness of recorded deaths (i.e. Brass growth balance method , Preston - Coale method and Bennett - Horiuchi method) based on the hypotheses of each method and its characteristics and the needed data. It was found that there was no reason for preferring one method on another , therefore , the three mentioned methods were used depending on registered deaths (collected from Ministry of Health data) for the period 1987 - 1997. The study results showed that Brass growth balance method was not relevant for the studied mortality data in the Iraqi society. therefore , its results were neglected , and the results of mathematical mean of Preston - Coale method and Bennet - Horiuchi method were considered as representative of completeness of recorded deaths. It was found (0.725) for males and (0.845) for females.In order to estimate some mortality indices , bridged life tables were built for the years 1997 and 2002 for males and females in Iraq. The analysis showed the rise of life expectancy at birth about (1.2) years for males and (1.3) years for females during the above mentioned period.Finally , the study discuses its conclusions and recommendations.
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دراسة نظرية وتطبيقية لشبكات بيرت الاحتمالية
اسم المؤلف:
ربى رشيد عبد الرحمن الجلبي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
1997
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تعتبر شبكات الاعمال من الادوات المهمة في التخطيط والسيطرة على مراقبة تنفيذ المشاريع باقل كلفة ووقت ممكن اذا ما توفرت الموارد التي تغطي حاجة تلك المشاريع.ونظرا لاهمية موضوع شبكات الاعمال ارتاينا البحث فيه بهدف التوصل الى طريقة لحساب وقت انجاز المشروع الك | Networks are considers as the most important instruments in the planning are controlling probation of projects implementation with minimal cost and time if there are sufficient resources cover the need of these projects.And respect to the importance of the topic regarding networks, we saw the search in it so as to reach method for calculating time of implementation of the total project in Probabilistic PERT networks, which are different from PERT networks because each stage in Probabilistic PERT networks represent random variable which has certain probabilistic distribution. So, time of implementation of the project will be another random variable, while in PERT method the times being already specified for each stage. We shall calculating this time after finding the total probability function for networks of the project.Moreover, we shall perform striking the necessary time to doing PERT network by application Fulkerson method which depends on every possible investigations to perform the project’s stages, which concentrate on that which have the maximum possibility of an event, and so the Fulkerson method being approximation to that which depends upon the probability function, but we shall concentrate in our research on the probability function because it gives additional indicators to the performing time. This will appears as clear through comparing the results that we shall reach after application the two methods. Where this was applied practical in one of our productive enterprises and it is the public enterprise of leather industries.According to above cited, we divided a thesis into four chapters; the first, takes the introduction and the objective of the probabilistic PERT networks topic as well as topic’s background, while the second chapter takes the theoretical aspect of the topic that encompass displaying method of PERT and an analysis that depend upon beta distribution besides displaying the symbols used in Fulkerson’s method to finding the expected time for implementation of the total project and finding variance of time regarding the total implementation and then estimating the probability function to the project time. The third chapter takes an applied aspect of the topic, so after gathering data, we tested it for conformity goodness of fit and then, we calculated mean and variance of the time regarding project total performing according to PERT and Fulkerson methods, and then we have finding the mean using probability function after estimate it.The most important what we have reached from the conclusions and the recommendations we shall display it in the fourth chapter of the thesis
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تاثير الغام الحروب على الرقع النفطية باستخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية : دراسة حالة - محافظة البصرة
The War Mines Effectet In The Oil Spots By Using Geographic Information Systems /Wasit Governorate - Case Study
اسم المؤلف:
دعاء يوسف عبد الرحمن
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
محمد جاسم محمد
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دبلوم عالي
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2017
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
نتيجة للحروب التي مر بها العراق على حدوده الشرقية ,والقصف الذي تعرض له خلال حرب الخليج (1980 - 2003) اصبحت العديد من الاراضي تحتوي على الالغام والمخلفات الحربية ,مما ادى الى ظهور مشكلة عدم استثمار الرقع النفطية التي تقع تحت المساحات الملغومة ,حيث تم استعم | The wars rate that Iraq pass it at the eastern borders, And the bombing he faced during the gulf war (2003 - 1980 ) many areas became contain Mines and remnants of the war. Causing a problem of not investing the oil spot which fall under mined areas , Geographic information systems was used in spatial analysis of the mines problem in Basra through natural distribution standard.After identifying the areas of mines presence calculated the cost by the government due to the presence of mines and remnants of war inside the oil field ( Sindbad ) and the ninth spot which are located nearby the Iraqi - Iranian border the reason for planting of many minefields by the Iraqi government and the Iranian government was that the wars which took a place in this area , And the study showed that the presence of mines and remnants wars within the oil spots the government must have a financial obligations to clear these areas from mines and make it safe for the extraction of crude oil.Although the study showed that the geographical distribution pattern of mines at the study area ( Basra ) it is close to the pattern of massed because the gathering of dangerous areas at the middle of Basra due to the proliferation of remnants of wars as a result from the air and ground bombardment to vital facilities inside the governorate. From this above we conclude not to leave and neglect any oil spot containing mines and wars remnants and conducting surveys and removals for the purpose of clearing them from the wars remnants and make it safe for the purpose of investment to benefit from oil imports , especially that the world oil price will decline over time , And to provide full protection of oil fields and wells from terrorist and military operations In spite of they are frequently locked to sabotage as arson operations by ISIS
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تشخيص وتقدير دالة الانحدار اللامعلمي للبيانات المزدوجة في حالة عدم تحقق بعض فرضياته
The Diagnosis And The Estimation of The Nonparametric Regression Function of The Panal Data In Case Some of Its Hypotheses Are Not Verified
اسم المؤلف:
دريد حسين بدر
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
اكتسبت نماذج البيانات المزدوجة اهتماما بالغا وخاصة في الدراسات الاقتصادية والطبية والمالية لانها تاخذ في الاعتبار اثر التغير في الزمن وكذلك اثر التغير في المشاهدات المقطعية على حد سواء في بيانات عينة الدراسة، فضلا عن وصف البيانات من خلال تقدير الانموذج ا | Panel data models have gained a great importance especially in economic, medical, epidemic and financial studies. Because these models take into consideration the impact of the change in time, the impact of the change in sectional views alike inherent in data of a study sample, in addition to describing data through Estimation of the appropriate model. In this thesis, we address the use of method of nonparametric regression in diagnosing and Estimation a model of panel data , as there are specific assumptions related to vector of random errors are not verified. This is because we are going to talk about a nonparametric problem and existence of Heteroscedasiticity and Auto correlated errors which make the process of Estimation wrong, or sometimes not possible. A model has been diagnosed through disclosing all of the problem of Heteroscedasiticity through the use of test (1996) (Zheng) and the problem of Auto correlation by suing test (2013) (Su and Lu). It has been indicated through handling a Nonparametric Hausman Test that the final model adequate for research data is Nonparametric Panel Data Model with Random Effects. Thus, finding Nonparametric Estimator has been tackled through dealing with each problem individually alongside with addressing methods of choosing the smoothing Bandwidth of the model of Random Effects. In case of correlated errors for all techniques of Nonparametric Regression, there are methods to deal with this problem, however all of the said depends critically on addressing estimation methods reliant on finding the choice of an optimal smoothing Bandwidth using more accurate standard until the removal of error process to attain an edited smoothing Bandwidth , of any correlation, is achieved. Then, we could Estimation a model by using Estimation methods. In case of Heteroscedastisity, treatment could be achieved through determining weight by Kernel Estimator, then to be used for the exclusion of the effects of Heteroscedasticity in the study variables through using estimation methods and provision of proposals for classic Nonparametric methods. The formulation of simulated experiments of used models and verification of performance of traditional and proposed methods, for all sample sizes and three levels of standard deviation trough the use of (RAMSE) standard, have been carried out in this thesis. One of the most significant objectives of this study is the selection of the best Estimation method produced by simulation through applying it on a group of balanced Panel Data (longitudinal). This could be conducted through carrying out a practical application to state the effect of the role of gross domestic product on fixed market prices measured in a US Dollar (x) in the state budget measured in millions US Dollars (y) for the period (2003 - 2015). This could be approached through depending on genuine data related to general budget for the Arab States measured by millions US Dollars. The gross domestic product has been focused on since it is the most important economic variable that impacts the budget, as an explanatory variable according to the viewpoint of the competent people for the period (2003 - 2015). The main conclusion in the experimental side is a clear preference in absolute terms to the fortified proposal of Least Square Support Vector Machine for Regression by using an (MGCV) standard on other used Estimation methods. This is in case existence of Auto Correlation as well as provision of a verified proposal for Propose (LCNE), relying on a Span, a selection standard, on other used Estimation methods in case existence of Hetroscedasticity, of all sample sizes, all cases and three levels of three standard deviation. As to practical side, an appropriate model has been diagnosed. Also, compatibility of the best method has been proven in the experimental side alongside with practical one, and the most appropriate for a model by using (RAMSE) standard
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حول تصاميم القطع المخططة
اسم المؤلف:
داليا هشام عبد الرحمن الشيخلي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عماد حازم عبودي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2002
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
مما لا شك فيه ان للتجارب العاملية اهمية كبيرة في دراسة تاثيرات العوامل الرئيسية وتفاعلاتها، وتعد تجارب القطع الشريطية او المخططة Strip - plot Experiments او ما يسمى بتجارب القطاعات المنشقة split - Block Experiments احدى فروع او حالات التجارب العاملية حيث | There is no suspicion that the practical experiment have a great importance in studying the major factors and their activities ,and the Strip - Plot experiment or what it called Split - Block experiment considered as one of the practical experiments brunches where the steps are divided in the Analyzing Differentiation Diagram to three combinations , the first one is for the queues, the second one is for the colons, and the third one is for the experimental units which produced from crossing the queue with the colon with noticed that the horizontal and vertical strips should be in a vertical line with each other so there is no relation between their sizes. The levels of one factor normally distribute randomly over the strips of the queues and the levels of the other factor, and also randomly over the strips of the colons. By changing the randomization category (put the restrictions on the way of randomization) many kinds of designing the Strip - Plot appears. Hence, the aim of this research came to put the spot on these categories and put their mathematics sample, the statistical analyzing of each category, their usage’s, their characteristics, their features and their standard mistakes and to test the differences between the treatments average by using the method of Least Significant Differences. We cleared how to treat the problem of the one replication (because of loosing the mistakes) to test hypotheses by two methods. Finally we applying the kinds of the strip - plot designs practically standing on an experiment diagrams done in Abo Guraib Station yield that belong to Eebaa Center For Agricultural Researches. The program was written in ( Visual Basic ) language to make the statistic analysis for these experiments and applying practically the treatment of the repetition one.
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تقلبات سعر صرف الدينار العراقي للمدة من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005 والتنبؤ بسعره في المستقبل باستخدام سلاسل ماركوف
Fluctuating of The Iraqi Dinerexchange Rate Since 1996 Until Mid 2005 And Forecasting It In The Future By Using Markov Chains
اسم المؤلف:
خليل برهان الدين فرمان السعدي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
صباح منفي رضا الشمري
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2007
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان هذا البحث هو دراسة احصائية اقتصادية في مجال سعرالصرف بدراسته من عام 1996 لغاية منتصف عام 2005، ويتلخص بهذه العبارة (( الحاضر جني الماضي والمستقبل غرس الحاضر)) وهو محاولة متواضعة لبلورة هذا السعرفي اسلوب علمي احصائي، وكانت سلاسل ماركوف خير معبرعن ذلك | This research is considered as a first statistical and economic study in the field of Exchange rate during the period from 1996 till midd 2005. It could be summarized with this sentence (present is the fruit of the past and the future is the plantation of present). Markov chains was used as a scientific statistical method in forecasting process being one of the easiest models. When the data at present is represented in three conditions (i.e high, low, and stable) and between the past, present and future, it was possible to achieve the ideal method in the analysis by using Maximum Likelihood method and Ordinary Least Square method in estimating transitional probabilities matrix. The probability values have been put for all stages and for both methods in one table. The period was divided to three phases according to the political circumstances in Iraq in addition to general phase. The results of the matrices were clean and independent when multiplied by (n) times as shown in attached annexes and in stationary distribution vector, when the probability values were stable for the three cases in definite number and for each phase. The conclusions achieved in the third phase and the possible study to rise Iraqi Diner value to a certain level has been coincided. Finally , the study submitted some useful recommenda - tions.
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مقارنة اساليب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير منحنى الانحدار اللامعلمي
A Comparison of Bayesian Approaches With Other Methods For Estimating Nonparametric Regression Curve
اسم المؤلف:
خلود يوسف خمو يوسف
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2004
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
لقد شهدت طرائق الانحدار اللامعلمي اهتماما ملحوظا في السنوات الاخيرة كان السبب في ذلك هو ان التفكير المعلمي الصرف المستخدم في تقدير منحنى الانحدار لا يتوافق مع المرونة في تحليل البيانات.ومع التطور المنجز في اجهزة الحواسيب من الناحية المادية وكذلك انجاز | In recent years, too many considerations have been given for the Nonparametric Regression methods. This is for the reason that the concept of pure parametric; used for the estimation of Regression curve, does not cope well with the flexibility needed for data analysis.With the progress made in computer machines, in terms of economy and running performance, it has become possible to develop many of Nonparametric Regression methods theoretically. Though many of these are still under perfection, and facing a number of problems.Hence we see the importance of focusing on methods related to smoothing of Nonparametric Regression functions. This is for the purpose of producing the best methods convenient for various models. And for the Distribution Random error, in its two cases; Normal and Contaminated. Thus, the most important purpose of the research, is to find what the studies so far, have offered in the field of Nonparametric Regression. Also to find alternative or modified methods; which are reliable for the treatment of conditions of failure regarding the methods in use, as well as to alleviate the complexity of some methods, especially those related to Bayesian procedures.One of the most outstanding aims of the research focuses on the study of Nonparametric Regression using Bayesian variable selection. This suggests a modified technique to be reliable and of less complexity than the original one.Amongst the other research intentions, when data are contaminated with outliers, is to explore the Robust Nonparametric Regression, using Bayesian variable selection method. Also to suggest a modified Bayesian method; resistant to outliers, and of less complexity than before transformation. As well as offering suggested methods for Robust Nonparametric Regression. This is of the feature of having less sensitivity towards outliers and reliable in comparison to very few techniques supplied with robustness, as the Bayesian approach.A simulation model has been performed with different distributions, for the random error and for a number of models.To verify the performance of such methods, many criteria have been carried out.To satisfy the purpose of this research, the study has been divided into five chapters. Chapter I consists of an introduction, the problem under research, its importance and purposes. It also covers a literature survey. Chapter II covers methods for smoothing Nonparametric Regression. While chapter III is devoted for Nonparametric Regression and Robust Nonparametric Regression using Bayesian variable selection method. Also in this chapter are details of the suggested methods. Then chapter IV implements the experimental part of the study. Finally chapter V comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the research has recommended. As well as the future studies, which have been proposed regarding this research.
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مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة المعولية للتوزيع الاسي الخليط مع تطبيق عملي
Comprastion Between Methots Estimator Reliability Function of Of A Mixture Exponential Distribution With A Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
خضر نصيف جاسم البياتي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2012
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان الاهتمام المتزايد في دراسة نماذج الفشل جاء نتيجة للدور الذي تضطلع به نظريه المعوليه ودالة الاخفاق بالتعامل مع الاعمار لدراسة ومعرفه سلوك اوقات الفشل في الزمن اللاحق, وتعتبر المعولية احد المقاييس للتعبيرعن اداء اي مفرد او نظام لفترة قادمة لذلك تعد المعو | Reliability theory and Hazard function have played a great role in the rapid interest in the study of failure models. These theories deal with the study of ages to investigate and study the behavior failure time at posterior time. Reliability theory is one of those standards that show the performances of any unite for an expected period of time. It is also considered an indicator for future planning.Accordingly, reliability theory is adopted to study and analyze behavior of failures and the factors behind such failures. To achieve this, the parameter estimators of failure models, with good prosperities and efficiency, are required to count the reliability estimation. Therefore, it is of keen significance to study the methods and techniques for getting the parameter estimators of failure including the parameter estimations of a mixture failure model. These estimations have a great role in reproducing complex cases of non - homogeneous populations. Like the importance of the normal distribution for biological studies, the exponential model is considered of a great significance for the study of failure models.The study aims to estimate the reliability function by employing various methods to estimate the model parameter exponential mixture. To achieve this objective, this study is divided into four chapters. Chapter I shows the introduction and the literature review. Chapter II defines some key concepts of the topic; it also presents the theoretical framework for the employed methods of estimation for a number of parameter estimator method’s complete sample of a mixture of two exponential distributions with different two parameter and percentage p. them of normal school such as Maximum likelihood method estimator and symbolizes her short (ML) and the method of moments and symbolized short (MO) and the least squares method and symbolizes her short(LS) and the least squares weighted and symbolized short (WL) and propose application Bayesian Method using (Lindley' s approximation) of this mixture distribution as not used in Iraq (by informed researcher) and study the behavior of a function failure rate for this distribution using expression w(t) which is also taught for the first time in Iraq, according to the informed researcher. Chapter III is divided into two sections. The first section includes the application of imitation style for generating data and performing a sample application based on the theoretical background. The second section reports about a field work on one of the public institutions for electrical industry. Chapter IV shows the results and conclusion of this study. It also suggests some recommendations for future research.
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استعمال بعض تصاميم التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة بالقياسات المكررة على مرض الثلاسيميا في محافظة واسط
Use Some Factorial Design of Experiments And Nested - Factorial By Repeated Measurements On Thalassemia In Wasit Governorate
اسم المؤلف:
حيدر رائد طالب
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
قيـس سبع خماس
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2013
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
انصب هدف الرسالة في امرين على درجة من الاهمية وهما اولا دراسة تحليلية لطبيعة التجارب بالقياسات المكررة لعدة تصاميم والتركيز على التجارب العاملية والعاملية المتداخلة وبناء النماذج الرياضية الخطية لهذه التجارب الذي يعتمد علية التحليل. لقد تم استعمال الط | Focused message in a two objective on the degree of importance and them first analytical Study to the nature of repeated measurements experiments for several designs and focus on the Nested - Factor Experiments and build linear mathematical models for these experiments upon which the analysis. It has been used several methods parametric to analysis these types of designs. which are difficult to analyze in sometimes because of the not provide conditions analysis of variance for repeated measurements experiments. The second objective of the message is application this kind of experience in the medical sector by studying a particular phenomenon characterized by a repeated measurements represented Thalassemia in Wasit province. Where he was studying three types of experiments the existence of a repeated measurements It is experiments with a one factor and have a repeated measurements on the same element, Factorial Experiment qxp repeated measurements on one factor, and Nested - Factorial experiment repeated measurements on one factor. As well as the use of methods of transfer to ranks (Rank Transformation) as one of the solutions that have made conditions analysis of variance to experiments measurements repeated of (distribution Normal random and independent for experimental error, homogeneity of variances, the lack of correlation between the averages and variances, spherical). Satisfactory because the transfer to ranks makes the data on the most homogeneous and normal, although we have identified a condition analysis of variance exclusively for the purpose of comparison by the value of the P - Value. The data can be described about Thalassemia in Wasit as follows : were assessed Standards quantities of iron (Fe) in the letter, groups this data classified into two groups, the first group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) and who have been subjected to the first chemotherapy (axja) by mouth for four treatment cycles (treatments) of each period lasts 30 days , and the second group included 20 patients (10 males, 10 females) who were exposed to second chemotherapy (Desferal) by injection into the skin or muscle of four treatment cycles (treatments), where each treatment cycle lasts 30 days. the most important conclusions that have been reached is that the Data Transformation by ranks led to the provision of analysis of variance conditions for experiments repeated measurements distribution the normal errors and homogeneity of variances and correlation between mean and variance, as well as a spherical condition. Through the four applications we believe that giving the first dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time and this type of treatment is used when high amounts of iron ratio. As well as when you give the second dose of the drug to patients has led to high amounts of iron to patients over time, but at rates lower than the first treatment and this type of treatment is used when a weak proportion of iron in the blood of the patient.
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مقارنة بين طرائق تقدير انحدار الحرف العامة في معالجة مشكلة التعدد الخطي شبه التام مع تطبيق عملي
A Comparisons Among The Generalized Ridge Regression Methods of Estimators Under Multicollinearity Problem With A Praxis
اسم المؤلف:
حنين مراد يوسف الصالحي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2014
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
يلقى موضوع خرق احد فروض الانحدار اهتماما واسعا وواضحا في معظم الدراسات لذلك تنبع اهمية هذا البحث من خلال الكشف عن احد هذه الفروض ومعالجتها والمتمثلة بـ وجود علاقة خطية بين اثنين او اكثر من المتغيرات التوضيحية والتي تدعى بمشكلة التعدد الخطي (Multicollinea | The violation of regression assumptions is one of the interesting topics in many fields. This thesis deals with multicollinearity problem by using some of generalized ridge regression methods (GRR, MJR, GJR, GL, AUGRR, and AUGL) as well as our proposed method (Almost unbiased Generalized Jackknife Ridge) (AUGJR). In addition, these methods are compared with parameter (k) in ridge and parameter (Liu D). These methods are evaluated based on the mean squared error (MSE) to obtain the best method of these methods with the suitable parameter.To evaluate these methods, we use simulation studies by using the R statistical program. Five variables are simulated with different sample sizes (n=15,20,60,300), different variances (0.16,0.13,0.18) and different correlation coefficients (r=0.16,0.13 and 0.18) with (s=10 and 2). The results show that AUGL, AUGJR and AUGRR are the best methods in terms of the MSE. The differences are very small among them. The methods are also evaluated based on real data example (Rail transport for the passengers and cargo), which is obtained from Iraqi Ministry of Planning.We first detected the problem of multicollinearity by using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Condition Index (CI). Then, we build a model of revenue for transportation after they have been estimating its features at the best methods.
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افضل طرائق المعاينة في تقدير اعداد النخيل في محافظة البصرة
Optimum Sampling To Estimate Date Palm In Basrah Governorate
اسم المؤلف:
حنان سعيد مالك الراوي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي
عدنان شهاب حمد
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2004
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
مما لاشك فيه ان لكل اسلوب من اساليب المعاينة مزايا ومبررات في استخدامه، وغالبا ماترتبط عملية اختيار اسلوب المعاينة بجانبين اساسيين، اولهما معيار التجانس بين المفردات سواء على المستوى الكلي ام على مستوى اجزاء(او مجاميع) من المجتمع، وثانيهما الامكانات المتا | There is no doubt that each technique of sampling techniques has advantages and reason for using it, and mostly the correlation of choosing sampling technique with a essential two sides, first of them is the standard of homogenous between units as for all population, and the second one is the abilities that are available to fulfills survey. And in using Stratified Random Sampling Technique in evaluating the suitable population to apply an important role to get a high efficiency estimator to compare with other Sampling design. As the target of this searching is to get the best ways that increase the accurate estimation of the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate and in using different kind of sampling estimator, the comparison has been done between the mean variance of Simple Random Sampling and the mean variance of the Stratified Random Sampling, and it is clear in the comparative results hat using Stratified Random Sampling give the best estimation. The determination of strata boundaries (strata formation) have interested role in obtaining efficient estimators, several strategies of strata formation were constructed, it is proved that the approximated frequency strategy at ?= ½ is the most efficient, researchers discussed developing this strategy through using different values of (?), or different sample allocations. In this searching three approximately frequency had been applied , and to divide the population into strata and point out the optimum limit strata, and the sample allocation has been determined by using Neyman distribution. And it is clear in the result that using the approximated frequency is the nearest and efficient to estimate the Date Palms number in Basrah governorate, by counting the Stratification mean variance and the stratification mean for the three approximated frequency. And the reason to know wither the Stratified Random Sampling is efficient and better than the Simple Random Sampling in evaluating the Date Palms number the experiment of the hypothesis between two population has been used, the results of that experiment show the difference between the two means that lead to reject the Null hypothesis and to accept the Alternative hypothesis, according to this the search recommended to use the Stratified Random Sampling according to the new divided stratification by using frequency, taking into consideration using Neyman distribution o determine sample size and sample allocation
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تقدير الدالة اللامعلمية للبيانات العنقودية
Nonparametric Regression Function Estimation of Clustered Data
اسم المؤلف:
حلا كاظم عبيد
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
البيانات العنقودية تظهر في الكثير من العلوم الاجتماعية والصحية والسلوكية. وتتميز هذا النوع من البيانات بوجود الارتباط بين مشاهداتها. وممكن التعبير عن العنقدة من حيث العلاقة بين القياسات على الوحدات ضمن نفس المجموعة فان النماذج الاحصائية تحتم على حساب الار | Cluster data appears in a lot of social, health and behavioral sciences. And featuring this type of data link between the presences of her observations. And possible expression of clustering in terms of the relationship between measurements on units within the same group, the statistical models makes it imperative for the link account at every level, because failure to do so leads to misleading results. Hence the importance inside the Observations link to the estimating of the function non parametric for cluster data where the use of parametric method for ICON is always desirable to estimate some functions Because of the shape of the data is unknown in advance the appropriate function or as a result of the existence of some obstacles so it is the use non parametric method to estimate (smoothing) Nonparametric function.. Research has shown developed in recent times on the use of non parametric regression when parametric the assumptions are unfulfilled. And non parametric regression allows greater flexibility of functions dependent variables resulting from the data. Previous research has touched on the case of cluster data estimating the ways non parametric and semi parametric methods and was adopted state of neglect of the link within the same cluster property data that distinguish cluster data is particularly. And local kernel estimator achieved more efficient negligently correlation within clusters (even if the correlation is in the interest the study). While some touched on the case taking correlation between Observations per cluster using the estimated equations. Others had created the kernel methods in the case of cluster data behave completely different from the behavior of the capabilities of the spline estimator as has achieved kernel methods results more efficient when the neglect of the link within the clusters, while spline methods results achieved less variance of smoothing fixed parameters at taking the link inside clusters into account in the estimation process.So in this thesis will be nonparametric function estimating for clustered data using the Seemingly Unrelated Kernel Estimators, and The Generalized Least Squares Smoothing Spline Estimators and propose Robust methods and comparison of the methods listed above to indicate the best estimate of the nonparametric function estimating for clustered data, taking into account the structure of the link within the clusters were cluster data, The adoption of cluster data, which has the same number of explanatory variables within each cluster. To achieve this, thesis was divided into five chapters, the first chapter included introduction and aim of the research and reference review, either Chapter II now include the theoretical side which discussed the methods used to calculate the non parametric function of cluster data in the presence of the link. While included Chapter III experimental side (simulation) and the application addressed method in the second chapter and the statement of the best way has less (MAE) or (MSE). and either the fourth chapter includes the applied side to the real data for the proportion of white blood cells and its impact on the proportion of blood per patient (cluster) and Chapter V which includes the most important conclusions and the recommendations.it is through simulation experiments have been finding the best way to estimate the non parametric function for cluster data and a way The robust Generalized Least Squares Smoothing Spline Estimators in the case of a correlation. It was the application of all methods of the practical side using real data about the proportion of white blood cells and their impact on the proportion of blood hemoglobin for patients with blood cancer (leukemia).
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التحليل الاحصائي لتجارب القياسات المكررة للبيانات المصنفة
The Statistical Analysis For Experimental The Categorical Data of Repeated Measurement
اسم المؤلف:
حلا كاظم عبيد الصبيحاوي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
سجى محمد حسين الهاشمي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2007
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
حيث تم استعمال اختبار (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) على بيانات ذات معالجتين وكل معالجة بمستويين المتمثلة ببيانات مرض ضغط الدم ولدوائين وكل دواء بمستويين (ملائم وغير ملائم) ومن خلال الجانب التطبيقي تم الو | In this dissertation the study have concentrated on the use of repeated measurements tests of catcorigal data, where we used (Cochran, Mc Nemar, Ireland & Kullback, Stuart, Bhapkar, Ireland & Ku & Kullback) tests on two treatments data, and every treatments with two levels which represent raised blood pressure data, and for two medications, each medication with two levels (appropriate and inappropriate), through the practical aspect, we concluded that the ratio of response for the two medication are the same. Also we used (Ireland & Ku & Kullback, Bhapkar, Stuart) tests on data with two treatments, each treatment has more than two levels that represent data of fifth grade (High school) for Arabic text book through years (2001 - 2004) in sumer high school, in which the first treatment represents the students grades in mid term exam, and the second treatment represented the student grades in final exam, through the practical aspect we gained an equivalent results in the previously mentioned methods (in which the students levels in mid term exam equivalent to that in final exam). We also used (Ireland & Kullback, Cochran) tests and weighted least squares (WLS) tests on three treatments data in which every treatment has two levels that represents data of student in the same grade, and in the same years for English text book in which the first treatment represents the first term average, and the second treatment represents the student's grade in mid year, and the third treatment represents the average of second term. And for two levels (Pass and failed), through the applicative of these test on these data we concluded that the level of any given student in first term is equal to the level in mid year and it's also equal to that in second term.
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مقارنة طرائق تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس باستخدام عينات مراقبة من النوع الثاني
اسم المؤلف:
حلا سلمان فرحان
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2007
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة البقاء لتوزيع لوماكس اخذين بنظر الاعتبار وجود عينات مراقبة((Censored Data من النوع الثاني في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات بشكل دالة احتمالية اولية مشتركة لكل من معلمتي الشكل والقياس,حيث تم افتراضها حسب اسلوب الباحث(Jef | In this study have been estimated the survival function to Lomax distribution considering there was censored data (second Type) just in case if a primitive information were available about the indications as mutual primitive probability function for both : indications form & measure which assumed in order to method of the searcher (Jeffry) and also squared error loss function). So measured estimated pez S*(t) for survival function S (t) is the conditional expectation function S*(t) =E[S (t)/X].It has been used approximated methods to measure them because It is hard : to measure the complementary of numerator and denominator in a mathematics form by using Bayes method. One of these methods is the method of the searcher ( Lindley) while the other method was return to ( Tierrney and Kadon).In addition to methods formerly to estimate the survival function; the searcher has used the Shrinkage method. While she used the maximum likelihood method as a usual method for those which did not depend on the primitive information because the estimated thing had fixed quality.So, all this to make the comparison between these methods and the oldest one through simulation style by Mont - Carlo to get new estimation which carried the wanted qualities in the perfect estimated to get specific results : to choose the suitable estimation method.The searcher hade made the bayes (lomax distribution survival function) as the lindley manner was the best among the other manners to estimate lomax distribution survival function ,on general ;while the manner of the maximum likelihood method was the best manner among to other estimated manners for tiny simple size on private.
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مقارنة فترة الثقة مع الفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل مع تـطبيق عملي
A Comparison of Confidence Interval With Bayesian Interval For The Linear Compination of Nest Factor Means (With Application)
اسم المؤلف:
حسام موفق صبري الدليمي
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2006
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تعد دراسات المقارنة بين طرق تقدير المعلمات من الدراسات المهمة التي تاخذ حيزا واسعا في البحوث الاحصائية، لذلك تهدف هذه الدراسة الى اجراء مقارنة من خلال الفترات بين فترة الثقة والفترة البيزية للتركيبة الخطية لمتوسطات عامل التداخل في تصميم متداخل متزن لمرح | A Comparison studies among parameters estimation approaches are important studies that take a large space in statistical searches. So that the purpose of this study is to make a comparison through the intervals between the confidence interval and the Bayesian interval for linear combination of nest factor means in a two stage balanced nested design.The confidence interval was found by using an advance approach in inference called (Mixed Inference), and the Bayesian interval was found by using another approach in inference called (Bayesian Inference), then a comparison was happened between the two intervals (obviously the two kinds of inference).We apply this comparison on a real data experiment represent weights of vetch planet in (1998), and by using simulation. The results of the real data experiment and simulation shows an important conclusion which said that the confidence interval for linear combination of nest factor means is better than the Bayesian interval of the same linear combination for any suggestion confidence coefficient.Finally, An assumption study established to know the causes that leads to that important conclusion
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تحليل التباين متعدد المتغيرات لتصميم القطع المنشقة - المنشقة
Multivariate Analysis of Varaince For Split - Split Plot Design
اسم المؤلف:
حسام عبد الرزاق رشيد البكري
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2005
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
This research work is a study of multivariate analysis of variance model (MANOVA) for the design of split - split plot to a complete randomized block. As it is an important method for determining whether the response variables are influenced with each other or in other words whether the correlation between the variables of a force such that it influence the decision taken concerning the applied hypothesis. When we don’t ignore the relationships which are created between the responses variables lead us to generalize the tests in the univariate analyses about the means of normal population to be changed to tests involving mean vectors responses taken from multivariate normal population. Ignoring the existing relationships between variables lead us to untrue conclusions, so in doing the (MANOVA) gives us a full picture of the experimental factors and their interaction in the experiment as a whole. The concentration on doing the (MANOVA) should not be at the expense of the study of the univariate analysis. So the research work involves the problem of heterogeneous in sub - sub plot variances, which is considered one of the important problems put forward by other researchers which may limit his work in special procedure. We are interested in solving this problem by using a univariate analysis procedure after splitting the error of sub - sub plot and then finding the standard deviation used in comparison testing between about the third factor (c). Then comparing them with the standard deviation used, if we assume the existence of homogeneity in variances of sub - sub plot.
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استخدام اسلوب بيز التجريبي في تقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي
Using Empirical Bayes Approach For Estimating Parameters In A Linear Regression Model
اسم المؤلف:
حازم منصور كوركيس عربو
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2005
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
The primary purpose of our thesis is to assess the importance of using empirical Bayes approach in regression analysis. At the first some empirical Bayes techniques in point estimation are considered. It is well known that in point estimation with a squared error loss function the Bayes estimator is the posterior mean. In the empirical Bayes approach we must construct a consistent sequence of estimators for this posterior mean using past experience. This construction is done for three general families of distributions. New estimators for the parameters in the simple orthogonal linear regression model are presented using not only the usual random sample of observations but also past experience in the form of previous estimators of parameters in similar but independent situations. The regression parameters are considered to be random variables. Bayes estimators are given for a squared error loss function. Even though the prior density of the parameter is unknown the Bayes estimator can be written in terms of the marginal density of sufficient statistic. This marginal density can be estimated empirically , thus forming the empirical Bayes estimator. Empirical Bayes estimators for the parameters in the general linear regression model are presented. These estimators by pass exact knowledge of the prior distribution of parameters by means of supplementary informations from similar independent experiments. The case in which the error variance is unknown and may vary from one experiment to the next is included. Some basic concepts in shrinkage estimators are introduced. The definition of multicolinearity as the existence of near linear relationships among the independent variables is given. Effects of multicolinearity on estimated regression coefficients are explained. Sources of multicolinearity and methods of detecting multicolinerity are presented. The method of ridge regression is given as one of several methods that have been proposed to remedy multicolinearity problems by modifying the method of least squares to allow biased estimators of the regression coefficients. The technique of ridge regression first proposed by Hoerl and Kennard has become a popular tool for data analysts faced with a high degree of multicolinearity in their data. Ridge solution properties and methods for choosing the ridge parameter are presented. The first method is graphical applied by using graphical display called 'ridge trace' the second method is the iterative method proposed by Hoerl and Kennard. The equivalence of ridge regression estimator with Bayers estimator is proved. Bayesian methods are employed for choosing the ridge parameter. An empirical Bayes estimator of the ridge parameter is presented. An empirical Bayes estimator of the ridge parameter which result in minimax ridge regression estimator under strawderman's loss function (formula 2.81) is also presented. By minimax estimator we mean an estimator which is uniformly better than the least square estimator in terms of risk. In the practical part of the thesis we apply ridge regression analysis to the set of actual data suffer from multicolinearity. Three methods are employed to determine the value of the ridge parameter. Comparisons between the three methods are made on the basis of various statistics that might go into the choice of the ridge parameter. According to these comparisons we conclude that the value of the ridge parameter obtained by using empirical Bayes approach (formula 2.78) is better than the other two methods. Ridge analysis is repeated for another set of experimental data obtained by constraint simulation. The same conclusion is obtained when the dependent variable is any one of the variables Y2 ,..... Y6.
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مقارنة بعض طرائق التقدير اللا معلمية لنموذج الانحدار التجميعي المجزا باستعمال المحاكاة مع التطبيق
A Comparison of Some Nonparametric Estimation Methods of An Additive Quantile Regression Model Using Simulation With Application
اسم المؤلف:
جنان عبد الله عنبر
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2010
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان استعمال النماذج المعلمية يتطلب توافر معلومات كافية عن الظاهرة المدروسة مع معرفة المجتمع الذي سحبت منه العينة وان تكون معلماته معرفة لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثين الى البحث عن نماذج ا | Using of the parametric models requires a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models, so too many considerations have been made for the Nonparametric Regression, in the last years. The main reason of that was the researchers’ belief that pure parametric methods for estimating the regression curve have shortage with the flexibility needed for data analysis - especially the quantitative data - . With the progress made in computers, in both hardware and software, it has become possible to develop many of Nonparametric Regression Methods including the "Quantile Methods". In spite of that, the researcher see the most of papers and articles concern univariate case, where the researchers about bivariate case still with limited. In the other hand, the researches extension to multivariate case nonexistent in Iraq - in the scope of researcher’s knowledge - , which gives an extremely importance for the aim of this study, to bring attention for alternative methods or modified methods that can be efficient ones to improve the currently methods. Thus, the most important purpose of the research, is the use of Tow - Stages method, which helps the researchers to compute Nonparametric estimators for the components of Nonparametric models to avoid the curse of dimensionality.It divideds the components to set of points called "Quantiles" , then estimates the quantile function by one of the quantile methods we explained in this research, ( Marginal Integration, Backfitting, and Tow - Stages ). The simulation has been designed for the illustrated models and it has been checked about the estimation methods performance by using the Absolute Deviation Error (ADE) criterion, then compute the Average Absolute Deviation Error (AADE). From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best estimator was Tow - stages estimator in case of high correlation and / or high dimensions. To achieve the purpose of this research, the study has been divided into five chapters. Chapter one, consists of an introduction, the aim of the thesis under research, and a literature survey. Chapter two covers the parametric regression quantile estimation. While Chapter three devoted for Nonparametric estimations methods. Chapter four devoted for Simulation experiments and practical experiment with real data. Finally, Chapter five comprises the conclusions and suggestions that the research has recommended.
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مقارنة بعض المقدرات البيزية الحصينة مع مقدرات اخرى لانموذج GARCH(1.1) مع تطبيق عملي
A Comparing of Some Robust Bayesian Estimators With Another Estimators For Garch (1.1) With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
جنان عبد الله عنبر
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
نزار مصطفى جواد الصراف
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
تعاني بعض السلاسل الزمنية من التقلبات او عدم الثبات في التباين مثل السلاسل المالية والاقتصادية والبيئية وغيرها, وقد يرافق ذلك وجود التلويث او القيم الشاذة في تلك السلاسل والذي يرافق عملية جمع البيانات في اغلب الاحيان ولاسباب عديدة قد يؤثر ذلك بشكل كبير عل | Some of time series suffer from volatility or instability in variation, such as financial , economic , environmental and other time seriesIt was accompanied by the presence of contamination or stray values in those chains that accompanies the data collection process often for many reasons, which greatly affect the estimation models parameters and thus makes the estimated models parameters and thus makes the estimated models are inaccurate and affect the future in the forecasting process this makes the process of estimation the traditional methods is not accurate and not feasible in practice and that is what led many researchers to find alternative methods of estimating for those methods reduce the impact of contamination and the volatility in the process of estimating the time series models,, including autoregressive conditional heteroscadestic models family (ARCH and GARCH). So the goal came thesis complement the work of researchers as thesis aims to find robust Bayesian estimators to the estimate first order generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscadestic model GARCH (1.1) when errors followed normal distribution, and that by proposing three robust Bayesian methods to estimate a method (y ?BM.Bayes) and method (BM.Bayes) and the reduced method (BM.Bayes Shrinkag). As was the use of certain methods of estimation models (GARCH), such as (MLE) traditional method of estimation and the method of (Bayes) and three robust bounded methods a (BM.Huber) and two methods by the proposed (BM.Hample) and (BM.Tukey). The use of simulation in the style of the experimental side for a comparison between the methods adopted in research using polluting ratios (0% 0.1% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20%) and volumes of samples (500, 1000.1500), In addition to the use of different values of the parameters it is found favorable proposed method (BM.Bayes) be when the values of the two parameters (?1, ?) close to each other when any correlation strength is high , Simulations were also on the values of the parameters of the real series that have been estimated in a manner program application (MLE) and some of them were far from any values that weak correlation strength , It turns out that the best method was the proposed (BM.Bayes.Shrinkag). In the practical side it has been stated in the application of the theoretical side of the building stages of the model and testing of those stages on a series of (1254) Show prices daily sales of Basrah, for the period (2 \ 1 \ 2008 - 31 \ 12 \ 2012) through the application of the proposed third method (the reduced method) (BM.Bayes Shrink) which was best when applied to the estimated values of the parameters in a manner (MLE) in the experimental side as it made less (MSE) and estimate the appropriate model GARCH (1,1) proposed the adoption of the reduced way (BM.Bayes.Shrinkag).
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استعمال بعض النماذج الاحتمالية المنفردة والمركبة المبتورة لتحديد خصائص التعويضات الصحية في شركة التامين العراقية
Use Some Probability Single & Compound Truncated Models To Determining The Characteristics of Health Payments In The Iraqi Insurance Company
اسم المؤلف:
ثائرة نجم عبد الله الامير
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
قيس سبع خماس
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2012
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
نظرا لعدم وجود بحث احصائي سابق لسلوك تعويضات التامين الصحي الذي يمثل النسبة الاكبر من التعويضات في عموم شركات التامين في العراق، تم اختيار هذا البحث وتطبيقه في شركة التامين العراقية.ولغرض تحديد افضل انموذج احتمالي يمثل تعويضات التامين الصحي، تم استعمال | Due to the lack of previous statistical research of the behavior of payments, specifically health insurance, which represents the largest proportion of payments in the general insurance companies in Iraq, this study were selected and applied in the Iraqi insurance company.To determine the best model represent the health insurance payments, we used two probability models determined through the initial detection for the distribution of the research sample by use (Easy Fit) program.One : single, a (Lognormal) for all sample views, and the other compound (Compound Weibull) at dividing research sample into small losses and large losses, and focused on the compound model in some detail in terms of drafting and its importance. With the application of the state of amputation in both the fact that the specific health payments from the top by two million diners in this company.Both models Parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the use of style (Newton - Raphson) to find these estimates. And then compare between models using standard (MSE). Was reached in general that the compound model is better than a single model in the representation of payments.
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طرائق تقدير عدد مرات الفشل في الانظمة القابلة للاصلاح
اسم المؤلف:
ثائر فيصل شاهر
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2004
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
ان الهدف من هذا البحث تسليط الضوء على احد اهم وابرز المواضيع المعاصرة في دراسات المعولية وهو الانظمة القابلة للاصلاح والذي يعني ان النظام الذي عندما يحدث فيه فشل فيمكن اعادته للعمل باصلاح بعض مركباته دون الحاجة الى ابدالها. والذي يحظى بتطبيقات واسعة وخاص | The main purpose of this research was to study one of the main modern subject which is very important in the reliability studies, it is the repairable system, which means that if the component fails it immediately repaired.These studies have widely applications in many systems like watching machine of cars, airplanes and communication systems, that is failure make huge materiel and humane losses.It is found that these systems submit to Poisson process in particular the nonhomogenous Poisson process, the main contribution in this research is the modification in estimating the number of failures in repairable systems, and the derivation the distribution of n - failures where the distribution is General Gamma.Finally, some new results obtain and a simulation experiments were done to compare the proposed and classical methods.
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مقارنة مقدرات بيز الحصين مع مقدرات اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية التقريبية لتوزيع ويبل
A Comparison of Robust Bayesian Estimators With Another Estimators To Estimate The Approximation of Reliability Function For Weibull Distribution
اسم المؤلف:
تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
دكتوراه
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2007
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
من الملاحظ ان معظم البحوث والدراسات في مجال الاحصاء ولاسيما في حقل المعولية تهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عال من الكفاءة. لاسيما عندما تكون بيانات العينة قيد الدراسة ملوثة. او في حالة عدم التحديد الدقيق للمعلومات المسبقة او في حالة ظهور الحالتين م | It is noticed that most of the researches and studies in the field of statistics particularly in the field of reliability aiming to obtain estimators of very high standard of competency specially when the sample data under study is contaminated, or in the case of not determining accurately the previous information or in case both cases appear together. From here came the objective of the thesis to come to competent estimators of the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution which is considered one of the common failure models. Through studying the ordinary procedures represented in the maximum likelihood method and method of moments and white’s method as well as the ordinary robust methods represented by the method of M - estimate and bayes procedure as well. Therefore bayes procedure was suggested depending on natural conjugate prior function in addition to suggesting three methods according to robust bayes procedure where the first suggested procedure of robust bayes assumed that there is an extent of belief and to a certain percentage with the researcher (the percentage of the researcher falling into mistake in determining the primary information) where the accurate determination of the primary information has already been made which will be integrated with the sample prospects to obtain bayes estimater As to the second suggested procedure of the robust bayes it treated the problem of the sample prospects contamination or the primary information. Whereas the third robust bayes procedure suggestion had treated the problem of appearance of both problems together - that is inaccuracy in determining the primary information and the possibility of contamination to the sample views or the primary views as well, found a comparison between the studied evaluation methods by using the simulation procedure. It has been arrived to the success of the suggested methods in evaluating the approximate reliability of Weibull distribution depending on the two statistical scales (Integral Mean Square Error) (IMSE) and the (Integral Mean Absolute Percentage Error) (IMAPE).
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نظام خبير محوسب لتحديد الفترة المثلى لعمليات الصيانة
Computerized Expert System To Determine Optimal Interval For The Maintenance Process
اسم المؤلف:
بهاء عبد الرزاق قاسم
الجامعة:
جامعة البصرة - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد
اسم المشرف:
محمد عبود طاهر
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2007
مكان الجامعة:
البصرة
المستخلص:
Maintenance process is considered to be one of the important activities in the life of industrial establishments, thus the maintenance aim to conservatism on high operational properties of machines.Depending of precedes, we suggested a system instead of a statistical expert in the ( Domain of determination of optimal interval for execution maintenance policies ).The System has a statistical knowledge base about, weibull and exponational distribution, in addition to a knowledge about test of goodness of fit to determine the probability distribution of delay time.After we build expert system , we test this system as first phase on the data of past study, and we get outcome accordance to study outcomes, then we supply guide on expert system success.Stat company of fertilize south region has been chosen to be a good field for this study , and we obtain to optimal interval of maintenance execution equivalent to four month.
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تقدير دالة المعوليـة لتوزيع لوغارتيم الطبيعي مع تطبيق عملي
Estimate of Reliability Function For Lognormal Distribution With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
بلسم مصطفى شفيق النائب
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
فرحان اسماعيل العاني
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2003
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
لقد كان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد في دراسة موضوع المعولية في السنوات الاخيرة يعود الى التطور التكنولوجـي والتقني السريـع واستخدام الانظمـة الالكترونية المعقـدة في مختلف المجالات. وعليه فان دراسة موضوع المعولية والربط بين الجانبين النظري والتطبيقي امر له | The studies of the subject - matter of Reliability with connecting between theoretical and application sides , it is an important matter now a days because the technology development with using electronic systems.In this study it is used the Lognormal Distribution as a failure models when the failure rate to these models initially increases over time and then decreases approaching Zero with increasing time , and find out the estimators of reliability function by different methods.The estimates are : 1. Maximum Likelihood Estimation.2. Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator.3. Bayes Estimation.And then comparing between the priorities of the estimates through using the Monte - Carlo method and conducting several experiments using Mean Square Error.Generally result show that Maximum Likelihood Estimation to estimate Reliability is better than the other methods , Regarding the practical aspect the data of life time for four machines from EIGC and found after using chi - Square test that the life time for test machines distribute Lognormal and the estimation of Reliability function for machines done using Maximum Likelihood Method
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تقدير معلمات انموذج المعادلات الهيكلية المتضمن متغيرات الوساطة مع تطبيق عملي
Estimation of Structural Equations Model Parameters With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
بشرى سعد جاسم
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
غفران اسماعيل كمال
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
يستعمل تحليل الانحدار مع المتغيرات المصنفة الى صنفين صنف يمثل متغيرات مستقلة (Independent variables) واخر يمثل متغيرات تابعة (Dependent variables), فلذلك يقوم تحليل الانحدار بدراسة العلاقة بين المتغيرات المستقلة والمتغيرات التابعة, الا ان هذا التحليل يعمل | regression analysis use with classified variables into two class that represents the independent variables (Independent variables) and the other is a subsidiary variables (Dependent variables), for there the regression analysis study the relationship between independent and Dependent variables, but , this analysis works to know only the direct impact between the variables for this reason i use the structural equation Model (SEM) to identify and know the variables that are of indirect effects by estimating and testing parameters by set of methods (steps causal method, bootstrap method, method of multiplying the transaction ( parameters) product of coefficients, difference in coefficientsstructural equation model like other models are a matching variables tested with the phenomenon studied , test the compatibility of the variables that make up a structural equation model, and to achieve this condition, use Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) way to see match variables that compose it. After confirming the conformity of the model or suitability experimenting and having the effect of mediating variable in the model and mediation are two types : Single mediation where transmission of the influence of the independent variable to the dependent variable through the mediation of a single variable, and multiple mediation where is transition Effect independent variable x to the variable y through several mediation variables. the practical side of study include the effect of cultural stat of the man (X) in the use of violence against women (Y) through a series of mediation M_1variables represent (women's empowerment) and M_2represents (family planning) and the study data are taken from the integrated survey of social and health state for Iraqi women (I - WISH) for the year 2011 in the Ministry of planning - Central Statistics organazation, and this data applied conditions of adequate to structural equation model SEM and, and then estimate the parameters mediating variables and test their ability to move the indirect effect by the methods mentioned above using a program.AMOS V.23The researcher concluded that a moral mediation variables tested when using standard errors formulas for (Sobel and Goodman and Aroian) and compensated for in the test version of z all results be close itself in the other the researcher contrast were recommendations of the research is to use a single version of the standard errors formats (Sobel and Goodman and Aroian) to test the effect of mediating variables in the model, as the researcher found that the independent variable X (cultural condition of the man) affects the Y variable (violence against women) indirectly through mediation M_2variable (family) organization.
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التنبؤ باستعمال نماذج الانحدار الذاتي العامة المشروطة بعدم تجانس التباين (GARCH) الموسمية مع تطبيق عملي
Forecasting The Use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models (GARCH) Seasonality With Practical Application
اسم المؤلف:
بريدة برهان كاظم
الجامعة:
جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد - قسم الاحصاء
اسم المشرف:
فارس طاھر حسن الكواز
الموضوع العام:
الادارة والاقتصاد
الموضوع الدقيق:
الاحصاء
الدرجة:
ماجستير
اللغة:
العربية
السنة:
2016
مكان الجامعة:
بغداد
المستخلص:
مما لا شك فيه، تحظى نماذج GARCH) ) بالفاعلية والشعبية الكبيرة في نمذجة البيانات الاقتصادية والمالية، اذ تسمح للتباين المشروط بالتغير عبر الزمن، مما يجعلها اكثر واقعية في المجال الاقتصادي. وتتوفر ميزة اخرى مهمة في عالم الاقتصاد، ممثلة بالموسمية، الت | Un doubtedly , The GARCH model is very popular and effectiveness in economic and financial data , since it allows the conditional variance to vary over time , which makes them more realistic for the economic world. And there is another important characteristic in the economic world , Represented seasonality , that exist in high frequency data such as daily series , it can be seen in the real data of the exchange rate IQD/USD , Because there are seasonal conditional heteroscedasticity clearly shows in this data , Thereby are dealt with this type of data using Multiplicative seasonal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models , Because it is proven effective to express their seasonal phenomenon on the contrary GARCH models which do not contain seasonal vehicle. hence the aim of the research reaching a better model represents the seasonal data with proof of the effectiveness of the seasonal model in preference to the usual model. it has been used to detect seasonal presence in the data first , after that was diagnosed a problem of heteroscedasticity passing through the phase estimation using the conditional maximum likelihood and assuming normal distribution of errors , then determine the appropriate rank of the model using a number of special criterian Represented each of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwartz Information Criterion (SIC) , Hannan Quinn Information Criterion (H - Q), down to the stage to predict , using two method to predict the first is the prediction in the sample , which objective was to infer the efficiency of the preferred model and the second way forecasting out of sample any prediction of future values.it is found through the application on the study data stages that the best model for predicting volatility is SGARCH (1,0)(1,0).
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