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استخدام طريقة المربعات الصغرى المتناقصة والتمهيد المباشر في تقدير معلمات انموذج فورير للسلاسل الزمنية الموسمية == Using The Discounted Least Squares And Direct Smoothing Method For Estimate Fourier Parameters For Seasonal Time Series

Author name: محمد عبد الحسين محمد الغريباوي

Supervisor name: سلمى ثابت ذاكر الالوسي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: Mustansiriyah University

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

الطرائق التقليدية والطرائق البديلة لاختبار جذر الوحدة لاستقرارية السلسلة الزمنية : دراسة مقارنة == Traditional Methods And Alternative Methods To Test The Unit Root For The Stationary of Time Series - A Comparative Study

Author name: كوثر خضر ناصر الزيدي

Supervisor name: نزيه عباس المشهداني

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: Mustansiriyah University

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من الاساليب العلمية والاحصائية لتمثيل العلاقة لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية وتفسير سلوك الظاهرة من خلال دراسة تطورها التاريخي عبر مراحل زمنية، ويلاحظ في الحياة العملية والتطبيقية ان هناك العديد من السلاسل الزمنية لا تملك صفة الاستقرا | The time - series analysis of scientific methods and statistical representation of the relationship of the time series data and interpret the behavior of the phenomenon through the study of its historical development through the stages of time , and notes in the life process and applied that there are many time series do not have the recipe stability, So researchers began detects this problem and adopted for this purpose several methods of which are the subject of the unit root test , as this test of tests shows the task being equal to the number of roots per the correct number that corresponds to the necessary differences of the time series in order to turn out to be stability,. The condition of stability, of a specimen autoregressive is that all the roots of the equation distinctive located outside the unit circle , and the style of taking the differences necessary in order to transform the time series to the stability, style is not accurate to some extent to the fact that the probability of taking a number of differences more than required leads to inaccuracy of the work , so the test roots style is to know the number of differences required for the series studied the application of statistical methods for this test , and there are several ways to conduct this test , including traditional methods and modalities amended, has been comparisons between the methods used and the proposed method by the researcher through simulation through programs written by the researcher and the adoption of the application (Mat lab) where the comparison was between four models of testing unit root and through the results was reached similarities between the test (ADF, PP) and test(KPSS,LM) So was the adoption of a test (ADF, KPSS) and comparison with the proposed method, where the application has proved that there is a disparity between the test (ADF) and (KPSS) depending on the features and sizes of the samples, and that the proposed method was closer to a (KPSS) test , and have also been using data oil prices immediate (Spot Oil Price) for a time series of the month of January 1988 and up to the month of July 2013 and the application of unit root tests them through the use of application - ready (Eviwes).

استعمال انموذجات بوكس جينكنز للتنبؤ بوفيات حوادث المرور في محافظة كربلاء المقدسة للمدة 2010 - 2015 == Using Box - Jenkins’s Models For Analysis Road Accident Fatalities In Holly Karbala For The Period (2010 - 2015)

Author name: صبا جسوم عكلة

Supervisor name: عدنان كريم نجم الدين

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: Mustansiriyah University

Language: Arabic

Full text from the source: https://uokerbala.edu.iq/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Rp-Using-Box-Jenkinss-models-for-analysis-Road-Accident-Fatalities-In-Holly-Karbala-for-the-period-2010-2015.pdf

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

دراسة مقارنة لبعض طرائق تقدير الانموذج الديناميكي المكاني الخاصة بـ (Panel Data) مع تطبيق عملي == Compared Study To Some of The Methods of Estimating The Dynamic Spatial Model For (Panel Data) With Practical Application

Author name: سهاد علي شهيد مجيد التميمي

Supervisor name: حامد سعد نور الشمرتي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: Mustansiriyah University

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعد انموذج القياس الاقتصادي المكاني (Spatial Econometrics Model) احد انواع النماذج القياسية اذ تهتم بدراسة تاثير التفاعلات المكانية مابين الوحدات الجغرافية على الظاهرة المدروسة، تلك الوحدات من الممكن ان تكون مدن، بلديات، مناطق، دول، محافظات،... الخ. وت | Spatial Econometrics models are part of the Econometrics models as concerned with the impact of spatial interactions between geographic units. These units could be cities, municipalities, regions, states, provinces, etc..... It can also be used such models to explain the behavior of economic factors, geographic units, such as individuals, companies, or governments, if they were linked with each other through a network, but this type of studies in spite of a lot of use but less common.Should be noted that the spatial modeling studies differs from the time - series modeling studies, as the time - series studies focuses on the dependency between observation when a period of time and used the symbol (t - 1) to refer to the Lagged variables in time. It must be emphasized here that the (Spatial Econometrics) is not a direct extension for (Time - Series Econometrics) for two reasons; The first is that any geographical units can effect each other mutually, while it cannot be if they were tow observation at a certain time. Another factor most complex wide variety of units of measurement, which qualifies them for modeling spatial dependency (convergence, distances, bonding, etc...) compared with the measurement time dependency (time).In this thesis was to review some of the parametric techniques to estimate (Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Model (SDPD)), as there is dependent variable Lagged in time and extra (Endogenous Variables) in Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Model (SDPD) invalidate the use of estimation methods known like (Ordinary Least Square (OLS)) and the method (Maximum Likelihood (ML(. To overcome these problems, there are many empirical studies that have been applied in a manner estimate (Generalized Moment Method (GMM)), which were developed by each of the (Arellano & Bover 1995) and (Blundell & Bond 1998). As the main reason behind the use of estimator (GMM) to estimate the (SDPD) model is its ability to correct the interference (Endogeneity), which came by spatial lag variable also reason is due to the internal variables. In addition, it is estimated (GMM) is robust to some econometric issues such as measurement errors and poor (Instrumental Variable (IV)), it can also control the problem (Heteroskedasticity) and the problem (Autocorrelation) in the random error term, add to that the flexibility in the implementation of the calculations. In addition to the method (GMM) can be used (Quasi - Maximum Likelihood Estimation (QMLE)) when (Random Error) is distributed (Independent and Identical Distribution (iid)) with Mean zero and variance (?_?^2(.Estimated which is obtained be biased and inconsistent so it was (Bias Correction) to estimator (QMLE), also called the method of estimation of these (The Direct Approach).It has also been used (The Transformation Approach) for the purpose of processing the Spatial before the estimate to reduce bias as much as possible.As one of the most important goals is to study the effect of( Spatial Dynamic Effect)) sense of how dependent variable coefficients change that represents the (financial allocations for the program of economic sectors of the regions development) Lagged in spatially and in time and represented by )W_n Y_(n,t - 1)(between the provinces as well as the impact study of by Lag spatial dependent variable )W_n Y_nt( for each province of the Iraqi provinces and at certain period of time. Add to describe the effects of explanatory variables (Exogenous Variables) any (of economic sectors of each province for a period of a certain time) represented (b agricultural sector, industrial sector, transport sector, buildings and services sector, education sector) level of each province for the period (2008 - 2015).In the case of the first model any presence influences the spatial fixed only the better way transfers the larger time periods (T), the estimators (? ?_nT) be consistent (Consistence) and possesses a good estimator convergent properties correct the bias is more effective and has a proximity naturally parameter characteristics (?). The second model in the case of any effects the presence of spatial and temporal fixed together, was also the best way transfers from the direct method the larger time periods (T).As in the case of the practical side show in the case of both models weakness autoregressive spatial coefficient of investment allocations it does not have any interaction between the provinces where positively affecting the distribution of assignments better and to meet the economic development of each province

بناء انموذجي بقاء معلمي ولا معلمي لمرض التدرن في بغداد

Author name: حسنين جليل نعمة الساعدي

Supervisor name: حامد سعد نور الشمرتي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: Mustansiriyah University

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

التقديرات الحصينة للانحدار الضبابي == Robust Estimations For Fuzzy Regression

Author name: محمد جاسم محمد

Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

استعمال بعض الطرائق اللامعلمية في تقدير نموذج الانحدار الذاتي اللاخطي بوجود متغير خارجي مع تطبيق عملي == Using Some Nonparametric Methods For Estimation of Nonlinear Autoregressive Model With Exogenous Variables With Application

Author name: علي سلمان حبیب

Supervisor name: فراس احمد محمد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

مقارنة مقدرات بيز لدالة المعولية لانموذج ويبل للفشل باستعمال دوال خسارة مختلفة مع تطبيق عملي == A Comparison of Bayes Estimators For Reliability Function of Weibull Failure Model By Using Different Loss Functions With Practical Application

Author name: صبا صباح احمد الجميلي

Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: Weibull failure model considered being one of the well known failure models because of its different applications in addition to its importance in the reliability field and life tests.This thesis focused on a comparison of standard Bayes estimators for reliability function of the two parameters Weibull distribution by usingsix different loss functions, three of them have been suggested by the researcher.And for that, the methodology of this thesis depended on the following methodologies : - First : - Theoretical study, the standard Bayesian estimations has been derivatives elaborately to reach the Bayes estimators forms for the reliability function of Weibull distribution by using symmetric and asymmetric loss functions which been explained elaborately, and these are quadratic loss function, logarithm loss function and precautionary loss function to reach to the standard Bayes estimators which called quadratic Bayes estimator (QB), logarithmic Bayes estimator (LB) and precautionary Bayes estimator (PB)) respectively. And those loss functions have been Modified by suggested three modified loss functions counterpart to the functions above to reach proposed estimators which called (modified quadratic Bayes estimator (MQB), modified logarithmic Bayes estimator (MLB) and modified precautionary Bayes estimator (MPB)) respectively.Second : - Experimental study by designing number of simulation experiments using various values of parameters and sample sizes, and with repetition of (10000) times for the comparison among the estimators and by using the mean square error (MSE) to reach efficient estimators with minimum variance. And a collection of real negative and positive values have been tried for the constant which is used in proposed loss functions to reach the best value may used in the comparison, and then a comparison between the six preference estimators is done to show which estimator is the most accurate to be used for estimation the reliability function of Weibull failure model, and best results have been obtained from those simulation experiments.The results of these experiments showed that the modified precautionary Bayes estimator (MPB) is the best for the reliability function of Weibull failure model than the other estimators which have been used in this thesis, and the second best method is the modified logarithmic Bayes estimator (MLB), and after that the precautionary Bayes estimator (PB) and then the modified quadratic Bayes estimator (MQB), also all proposed estimators are better than the logarithmic Bayesestimator (LB) and the quadratic Bayes estimator (QB) which results not to be shown in preferences.Also the results of these experiments show that every proposed estimator is better than its known counterpart.Third : - Application study by taking the best Bayesian estimator in the simulation experiments which is the proposed modified precautionary Bayes estimator (MPB) and applied practically on two experimental real data from WeatherFord company for oil well digging in the Bazergan area of Misan governorate which are represented by the time to failure of the operation of the drilling fluid pumps.From all above, the most important conclusions and recommendations have been offered from the results of this thesis as a specific contribution in the reliability field.

بناء منظومة خبيرة لتشخيص التقارب لبعض التوزيعات الاحتمالية المتقطعة == Design An Expert System To Determine The Approximation In Some of Probability Distribution

Author name: وليد مية رودين

Supervisor name: علي عبد الحسين الوكيل

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ان الاستخدام الكبير والمستمر للتوزيعات الاحتمالية جعل هذا الحقل المتخصص متميزا في علم الاحصاء حيث يدل على مجموعه من الاحتمالات المرتبطة بقيم متغير عشوائي ناتج عن نوع خاص من التجارب , فعلى سبيل المثال توزيع ثنائي الحدين فان قيم المتغير العشوائي المرتبط بت | The wide and continuous use for probability distribution made this specialized field distinctive in statistics science , that leads to a bunch of choices connected to values of random variable results from especial kind of experiments , as example binomial distribution the values of the random variable related to its experiments satisfies specific general conditions follows this distribution , when we study this distribution we can exclude expert on expectation related to all experiments that satisfies these general conditions according on what precedes it is suggested a(unit) instead of an statistics expert in searching field Depending of what precedes, we suggested a system instead of a statistical expert in the ( domain of determination of the approximation values ) between the probability distribution and determine the fit distribution of users data , The suggested system is an (statistical expert system ) , which have took its statistical knowledge from scientific resources and human experience to provide the needed consultation , which can be provided and any statistical expert (ITD) This system has a statistical knowledge base about , binomial distribution , and poisson and the relationship between a normal distribution , in addition to the statistical knowledge to determine the value that must the binomial approximate to the poisson , also the case is lead to approximated to the normal distribution.Also it has a statistical knowledge to calculate all distributions probabilities, in addition to all other measurements

المقارنة بين اختبار Shapiro - wilk وJureckova باستخدام المحاكات ولعدة توزيعات == Coodness - Of - Fit Test In Non Paramatric Tests

Author name: وفاء جاسم محمد العقابي

Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

طرائق تقدير انموذج راش للبيانات المصنف متعددة القياسات مع تطبيق عملي == Methods of Estimating The Rasch Model For Multiple Categorical Data Measurements With Practical Application

Author name: وضاح صبري ابراهيم المناصير

Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يعتبر انموذج راش (The Rasch model)، من اهم نماذج نظرية السمة الكامنة (Latent Trait Theory) للنظرية المعاصرة لقياس سلوك الفرد، المبني على البيانات المصنفة، وهو احد نماذج الاستجابة للفقرة الاحادية البعد، بمعنى ان درجة الفرد في الاختبار لا يجب ان تكون دالة ( | Rasch Model is considered as one of the important models in Latent Trait Theory for the contemporary Theory to measuring human behavior that depends on categorized data. It is one of the response models for one dimension point i.e., the mark of an individual within test mustn’t be regarded as an evaluation for other individual’s samples that are used within Item Calibration.Therefore, the thesis aims at comparing some methods for Rasch Model’s parameters for Categorical Data Measurement by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).The following methods are also used : The Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (JML), The Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (MLE), Cohen’s Approximation Estimation Method (CAE), and Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEM ) and the first adjusted Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEMFS ) and the second adjusted Bayesian Estimation Method ( BEMSS ). The thesis includes a suggestion for a method to find the initial values of Rasch model’s parameters that are used in the previous mentioned methods and simulation is also used for overgeneralizing the results for the methods within various sizes levels, in which n : (n=10 , n=25 , n=75 , n=150 , n=300 , n=500 ) and ( n ) represents the individuals and (m) represents the number of the items ( m= 10 , m= 25 , m=35 , m= 45 ) and four different distributions are used ( Binomial , Poisson , Normal , Beta ). It is found that the best method for estimating the parameter of item difficulty (?_j), is The Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (JML) and the best method for estimating the parameter of individual’s ability (B_i), is the Bayesian Estimation Method of the Second Adjusted. Danial’s test for intelligence is used in AL - Mustansyria University, College of Administration and Economics, Fourth year, morning studies only and the number of students are (531). The main conclusions are : By comparing all the methods with the suggested ones to estimate Rasch model’s parameters , it is found that the best estimating for the parameter of individual’s ability (B_i), is the Bayesian Estimation Method of the Second Adjusted by depending on the smallest value for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and all the distributions are concrete and constant. It is found by comparing the methods to estimate the parameter of item difficulty (?_j) that the Joint function of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method is the best for estimation , in which Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is appeared with the smallest value and for all the concrete and constant distributions. It is found from the average of the correct answers of the testes that the tests items are within a closed level for each item and this gives the opportunity to students to answer the items. It is found from the average of the correct answers of the testes that the average of response is very good and it is between ( 0.47 - 0. 26 ) for more than 500 students from the total 531. This shows the similarity between students to have Danial’s test for intelligence. It is found from standards statistics ( T ) for the test items after comparing them with the tabled value for the natural distribution of the moral connotation ( a = 0.05 ) and the value ( 1.6449 ) that all the values without moral connotation and this confirms the acceptance of the test’s items to apply it on students’ sample which has different levels of difficulty but still parallel.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير المعلمات والمعولية لانماذج الاختبارات المعجلة والنمو لبيانات المراقبة من النوع الثاني مع تطبيق عملي

Author name: ورود باسم نور بهية

Supervisor name: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: نظرا لاهمية المعولية في التطبيقات الصناعية والهندسية فقد ظهرت الحاجة لاختبارات المعولية والتي هي سلسلة من الاختبارات والكشف عن العوامل التي تظهر خلال الاختبار وتاثيرات ومسببات عطل الماكنة نتيجة سوء الاستخدام وغيرها من الاسبباب وكذلك معرفة مدى ملائمة الان | Reliability has an important role in both the industrial and engineering applications. So the need for Reliability Tests appeared are series of tests a discover out of factors that appear through the test, also an effects too casese to defuse, probably to be created cases misuse a machine and other than, knowledge limit of fit a specifics production addition for getting on goodness of production. Therefore, the need for research to set of tests for censor data from ( Type II ) for exponential distribution with one parameter and these tests it’s (Accelerated Life Testing) to complete estimation parameters and reliability for the test models and these models it’s (Accelerated Cycling, Constant Stress ,Arrhenius and Eyring ) with tow methods ( maximum likelihood method, least squares method ) for all models above ,either Number of Units on Test To be complete calculation number of units inside in the test. And the other test is Reliability Growth includes three curves are Idealized Growth curve estimation parameters and reliability with maximum likelihood method, Duane Growth curve takes estimation parameters and reliability with least squares method, Exponential Reliability Growth Curve take estimation parameters and reliability by means of constraints for finding an optimal solution. Also The thesis so falls into four chapters. the first chapter is the introduction, the objective of the thesis as well as the review of literature. the second chapter tackles theoretical aspects contains exponential distribution,properties exponential distribution, estimation method, acceptance testing, accelerated life test, reliability growth testing and confidence intervals. The third chapter(application side)include tow parts,the first takes censor data (type II) from source (separate the soap off Al - Rasheed factory) and subjugate it for goodness of fit tests to be complete application on accelerated and growth tests, the second takes the simulation experimental and compared between estimation parameters for tests accelerated and growth for all models the test by depending on the statistic measure (MSE). Finally, the fourth chapter contains the more important findings and recommendations as well as the future visions which the thesis included. Also the thesis contains computer programs prepared by the researcher as well as another especial attaches.

طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط الخطي الطبيعي الملتوي في حالة القياسات المكررة مع تطبيق عملي == Method of Estimating Parameters of The Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model In The Case of Repeated Measures With Practical Application

Author name: هند وليد عبد الرحمن الجبوري

Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تم في هذا البحث دراسة احد اهم النماذج الواسعة الاستعمال والتطبيق في تحليل البيانات التي تتصف بكون المشاهدات فيها تاخذ شكل قياسات مكررة Repeated Measures والذي يعد تعميم للانموذج المختلط الخطي (LMM) في حالة عدم تحقق الطبيعية Normality، وهو الانموذج المختل | In this research, the one of the most important widely used and application model was studied in analysis the data which are described by the observations take repeated measures form, which regarded as generalization of Linear Mixed Model (LMM) in the case of the lack normality, it is the Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model (SN - LMM), which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the observations take repeated measures form and correlated among of them, this model express of these correlations by the random effect, it also achieved normality through the assumption that the data are distributed multivariate skew normal distribution.Also the research is concerned with the multivariate skew distribution generally and multivariate skew normal distribution specially with addressing the importance and used of these distributions, then dealing with the Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model (SN - LMM) from its importance, used, properties, modeling, and parameters estimation methods Three important method are used for estimation the fixed effect parameters, random effect parameters and skewness parameters, in addition a proposed method by researcher, these methods are : 1) Maximum likelihood (ML) Method.2) Restricted Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method.3) Bayes Method.4) Proposed Method.A comparison among the best of these methods is made in the application aspect which contained the practical application on two clinical experiment including two samples of diabetic patients data, Who were given a new drug, the data of two samples are represent the repeated monthly measures for the level of sugar and some other variables which are taken for patient from the beginning of the experiment, after three months , and after six months from start to give them the new drug, in aim to study the effect of age and sex, which represented the fixed effect, also the visits times, that the repeated monthly measures are taken in these visits for the sugar level and other variables which represented the random effect, the comparison among the best method are held by using statistical standard the Mean Square Error (MSE), it was found in general that the proposed method is the best to estimate the fixed effects because of its lower mean square error compared to other methods, and the Bayes method is the best among these method to estimate the random effect and random errors because of its lower mean square error compared to other methods.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير معلمات الانـموذج الثنائي اللوجستك المختلط باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيق عملي == Comparing The Estimation Methods of The Parameters of The Logistic Linear Mixed Model By Using The Simulation With Practical Application

Author name: هند وليد عبد الرحمن الجبوري

Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تم في هذا البحث دراسة احد اهم النماذج الواسعة الاستخدام والتطبيق في تحليل البيانات التي تاخذ شكل تجمعات Clustered والتي تكون ذات استجابات مرتبطة Correlated وهو الانموذج الخطي العام المختلطGeneralized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) لتحليل البيانات الطولية Long | This research was conserning in the study of one of the important models that are widely used in analyzing the data which take clustered form and have correlated responses, this model is Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) for analyzing the longitudinal data which it's responses are correlated. So this research was dealing with this model in an expanded form including its importance, uses, feature, modeling and the estimation methods then focusing on one of the most widely used examples when the responses of longitudinal Data are Binary which is Binary Logistic Mixed Model taking into account its modeling, importance, uses and the parameters estimation methods, so three important estimation methods were used to estimate the fixed and random effects parameters and these are : 1) Classical maximum likelihood (ML) Method.That include three basic algorithm by which the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained and it's as follows : I) Monte Carlo Newton Raphson (MCNR).II) Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM).III) Simulation Maximum Likelihood (SML).2) Robust Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method.3) Penalized - Quasi Likelihood (PQL) Method.In the experimental aspect comparison was done of which is the best among these methods through the simulation procedure by using Monte Carlo method and implementing several experiments using two of the important statistical measures which are Mean Square Error (MSE) and Bias, generally as a result it was found that Robust Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method is the best between these methods as it has minimum Mean square error and minimum bias comparing with the other methods.While in the application aspect practical application was done on data represent the successive monthly measurements for diebetic children whom depend on the insulin treatment which represent the fixed effect and the patient represents the random effect in order to study the effect of both the insulin dose and the patient on the blood sugar rate, it was found that the insulin dose has significant effect on the blood sugar rate while the patient has not that effect

تقديرات الهجرة الداخلية في العراق باستخدام النماذج السكانية == Internal Migration Estimates In Iraq By Using Population Models

Author name: هالة وليد حمدي الزبيدي

Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري | خالد زهدي مصطفى خواجه

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: ادى تزايد حركة السكان في العراق الى حصول هجرة داخلية.و لاهمية هذه المشكلة وما ترتب عليها من نتائج، لذا فقد حاولت الباحثة من خلال هذه الدراسة تحليل البيانات التي لها علاقة في نماذج حركة الهجرة الداخلية.وتهدف الى استنباط تيارات الهجرة الداخلية في القطر،وذ | Population Increasing movements in Iraq cause an internal migration. In spite of danger of this problem and what effects of it, so the researcher has tried through this study analysis the data, which relation in internal migration on models. Aiming at internal migration streams in country by using special population models of internal migration by direct and indirect methods. First chapter including general entrance displays general concepts and determines the problem and the purpose of the research and its importance and the background. The second chapter is measuring internal migration in Iraq and discusses the methods of the measure, the principal data references for migration, population distribution, the internal migration data in Iraqi census, the problem and difficulty of migration, the method of measuring internal migration from the census data is discussed by direct methods like Birth place, Duration of residence, The last residence and The reason of changing the residence place. The indirect methods like Vital statistics, The Survival ratio and National growth rate. The third chapter discusses the study of migration rates and ratios in Iraq and the demographic trace and divided into direct method like migration stream rates and in - migration, out - migration, net - migration rates and Birth - residence index, Gross intercensal interchange of population and Basic model. Indirect method like migration rates by using Survival ratio rates method, Vital statistics rates method, National growth rates method, and discuss the mathematical model and its relationship to internal migration, migration economic, demographic traces and migration effect on population growth. And the impetuses to internal migrations movement. The forth chapter discuss some important conclusions and recommendations.

تقدير الفعالية النسبية لانموذج القطع المكافئ في تجارب نسبة الميل لقياس تاثير زيتي الزعتر والكتان على الوزن == Estimation of Relative Potency For Parabolic Model In Slope Ratio Assays To Measure Effect of Thyme And Flax Oils On Weight

Author name: نضال بهجت محي الحيالي

Supervisor name: قيس سبع خماس

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

تحليل وقياس اتجاهات الفقر في العراق للمدة 1980 - 2005

Author name: ندوة هلال جودة

Supervisor name: نبيل جعفر عبد الرضا المرسومي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

مقارنة طرائق المويجة المتقلصة لتقدير انموذج الانحدار اللامعلمي في حالة عدم تجانس التباين

Author name: نبيلة عبد الهادي فائز الشريف

Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Doctorate

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

مقارنة مقدر المنوال الحصين مع بعض المقدرات الاخرى ولمعلمة الموقع == Comparing The Robust Estimator of The Mode With Some Other Estimators For Location Parameter

Author name: نازك جعفر صادق

Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

الاسقاطات السكانية لمحافظـــة البصـــرة للفتـــرة (1997 - 2022) باستخدام نتائج التعداد العام لسنة 1997 في العراق == The Populational Projections of Basrah Governorate For The Period 1997 - 2022

Author name: نادية علي عايد الحميداوي

Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري | زهرة حسن عباس التميمي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

مقارنة بعض الطرق الحصينة للمربعات الصغرى الجزئية == Compare Some of Robust Methods For Partial Least Squares

Author name: ميسون علي رحمن المندلاوي

Supervisor name: هلال عبود البياتي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

بناء انموذج للمعاينة البيزية المفردة بافتراض مربع كاي كتوزيع مسبق == Constructing A Model For Bayesian Single Sampling Plan Assumed Chi - Squaar As A Prior Distribution

Author name: ميسون حميد فرج محمد

Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: يتضمن هذا البحث بناء انموذج لخطط المعاينة البيزية باستخدام نظرية القرار، هدف الانموذج التوصل الى معالم خطة بيز المفردة (n,c) حيث n تمثل حجم العينة، c تمثل عدد القبول الضروريان لفحص المنتوج واتخاذ قرار لرفض او قبول الدفعة. قمنا باشتقاق ومناقشة خصائص نظام خ | This research deals with the process of Constructing a model for Bayesian Single Sampling Plan by using decision making theory. The aim of this Model is to obtain the parameters (n,c) which represent Sample size (n) and acceptance number c, which are necessary to inspect the lot and to make a decision whether to accept or reject the product. We drive and discussed the properties of the system of single sampling attributes plan obtained from minimizing the average Expected cost under the assumption that cost decision is a linear function in lot size and sample size. The distribution of the sampling is a mixed Poisson distribution i.e, each lot produced is in Poisson Control but the process average varies from lot of anther according to frequency distribution which is assumed to be derived in the neighbor points of the break - even quality level. We explain all the notation and steps of obtained the total Expected cost of quality Control, which contain the item of cost (Cl,C2...C6) upon the decision of acceptance or rejection, and then how to solved mathematically using forward Variances function to reach the Optimal Parameters (n*,c*). Then the Optimal size of the Sample size is identified is linear function from square root of the lot size. Some auxiliary tables are given, Which represent the results we obtained which indicate that the prior distribution of quality is Chi - Square with m degree of freedom, we apply NP - Chart to make decision about process, we apply also the test of goodness of fit for testing the hypothesis.

بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات دالة المعولية لنموذج احتمالي مركب مع تطبيق عملي == Some Methods of Estimation Parameter Reliability Function of The Probability Model Compound With Practical Application

Author name: مهدي علي عبد الحسين الدريعي

Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

Abstract: تعد التوزيعات الاحتمالية المركبة من التوزيعات الاحصائية التي كسبت اهمية متميزة في العقود الاخيرة وذلك لتطبيقاتها الواسعة في المجالات الهندسية والصناعية والتجارب الطبية والبايلوجية وبناء على ذلك فقد تم استعمال انموذج احتمالي مركب (الاسي - ويبل) ذي الثلاث | The probability distributions compound is important statistical distributions which gained importance and wide in recent decades, to the importance of their use in scientific fields, and at the Advanced has been addressed in this letter to the probabilistic compound model (exponential - Weibull) with three parameters and characteristics enjoyed by such possibility Writing probability density function and cumulative function and reliability function was used four different methods of estimating 1 - Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method2 - Percentiles Estimators Method3 - Least squares method4 - Weighted least squares methodAnd a favorable comparison between these estimators using simulation style through several experiences of one of the main users of statistical standards which is the mean squer error It was reached that the best way to estimate the reliability function is the Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method for having the lowest mean squer error.Or in the practical side it has conducted a practical application to real data taken from the State Company for Textile Industries in Wasit, which is for times of failure for machines textile department and assess the sample sized 101 machines communtiy 450 machines function of reliability with the use destined reached by a researcher at the experimental side, a Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method, and through the results turned out to estimate reliability function decreases gradually increase the time.

نموذج للتخطيط القوى العاملة : دراسة ميدانية في كليتي الطب والادارة والاقتصاد - جامعة البصرة == A Model For Manpower Planning A Survey In Medical & Admin. & Econ. Colleges University of Basrah

Author name: منى طاهر غافل الربيعي

Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages:

مقارنة طريقة Taguchi مع طريقة سطح الاستجابة للتجربة العاملية الجزئية باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparing Taguchi Method With Response Surface Method For The Fractional Factorial Experiment By Using of Simulation

Author name: منال جبريل محمود تيم

Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | عبيد محمود محسن الزوبعي

General topic: Administration and Economics

Specific topic: Statistics

Degree: Master

University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics

Language: Arabic

University location: Baghdad

First pages: