اسم المؤلف:
عامر حسن ثابت
اسم المشرف:
محمد كريم كاظم
المستخلص:
Intellectual interest in the Gulf security is well - established. Very few studies, however, have been conducted on the impact of post - occupation Iraq on the Gulf security arrangements. The main objectives of this research are to highlight the threats and challenges facing the Gulf region after the occupation of Iraq in 2003, and to address the post - occupation Iraq issue as an important factor in restoring stability and security in the Gulf region. Many factors and variables have contributed to the importance of the Gulf region as a key arena for regional and international politics. Domestically, there is both the wealth of the Gulf Cooperation Council states and strategic location of the Gulf itself, the continued internal and regional threats the GCC states are facing, and, lastly, the increasing global demand for the Gulf’s oil and gas. The subject of this research is a highly complex subject of study. This difficulty is very much manifest in appreciating and applying the most suitable analytical approach. As such, this research has adopted a multi - level and multi - causal analytical framework. The researcher believes that such a framework will not only lead to a more nuanced analysis, but also to a richer understanding of the topic. The results of this research are consistent with its hypothesis; it proves the following : Firstly, there is a concrete link between the occupation of Iraq and its impact on the broader security of the Gulf. Secondly, that Iraq can play a positive, balanced and durable role in the Gulf security. This is particularly relevant because of the many factors linking Iraq with the GCC states. Thirdly, in terms of security, that there is need for a new strategy consistent with the national interests of all actors involved in the Gulf region, as well as the security requirements of the region, in order to restore stability and security, and to save the Gulf region from a fourth destructive war. The US - led invasion of Iraq in 2003 is considered to be a major event, which has had a lasting impact on the security regime in the Gulf region . Earlier, what was dubbed Operation Desert Storm’ in 1991 marked the beginning of the disturbance of the strategic balance that had been unique to the Gulf region. The subsequent invasion and occupation of Iraq by the United States further disturbed that balance, affecting not only Iraq but the whole region. The dramatic changes that took place on the ground following the occupation in 2003 testify to this. These changes rapidly redrew the features of the Gulf security and caused an impact on every state in the Gulf, without exception, in terms of security and stability.The United States’ invasion of Iraq, coupled with its considerable presence in the Gulf region, revealed unprecedented facts regarding security matters, not only in Iraq, but in the Gulf region as a whole. This has necessitated a comprehensive assessment of the security regime that prevailed in the Gulf region prior to the war in 2003 in the light of the events that took place afterwards. The elimination of Iraq from the equation, coupled with the unfavorable developments in the state of Iraq since 2003, could have possibly turned Iraq into a security threat to the region on account of its attraction to proponents of extremism, violence, and terrorism.The nuclear activities of Iran, in light of the continuous tension in the US - Iran relationship, also constitute a main feature of the new security regime in the Gulf region. Moreover, the United States has redeployed its troops so that they are now based in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.In light of the above, it has become necessary for the Gulf States to consider a new security system to cope with the post - Iraq - occupation stage, as the security issue has become an obsession for these states. In the meantime, in order to resolve the security question, a security formula should be reached between them. However, to reach that end, a number of conditions need to be satisfied. These include an end to the United States’ occupation of Iraq, and bringing about stability and reconciliation between the Iraqi people. Another issue is the United States - Iran conflict and the provision of security guarantees to small countries so that those countries do not need to seek external alliances to protect their national security. This is not to mention making appropriate arrangements for securing oil production in the region, which implies coordination with the major oil consuming countries to set the balance right in the interests of both producers and consumers. However, satisfying those conditions, in addition to the reservations of the United States on any new security arrangements in the region - given that the United States is a major player in current events - constitutes a main challenge.The establishment of a regional security arrangements based on the resolution of all bilateral conflicts, setting a common stage for cooperation and coordination between the states in all areas, and the continuation of internal political reforms is in the interest of all states in the region including the GCC. Furthermore, bringing stability and security to the Gulf region is in the interests of the international community, particularly the United States.The fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 could have been a dream - at least, for the decision - makers in the state of Iran. This might have been particularly so in light of the fact that Iraq had been a stumbling block in the course of Iranian policy in the Gulf region for decades. But, as of yet, the Iraqi occupation has not proven good news for Iran. This is for the simple reason that decision - makers in Iran have become aware of the fact that they may be the next target for the United States. For this reason, they tried to exhaust United States forces in Iraq, not to mention the efforts they made to dominate the internal scene in Iraq by any and all means.Through its policy in Iraq, Iran aimed at becoming a main player in the regional game, an issue which had been beyond the understanding of the United States decision - makers. In all likelihood, they were not aware, beforehand, regarding the extent of Iranian involvement in the new Iraq, so that the United States and Iran found themselves facing each other in the post - Saddam Iraq. Nonetheless, the fact of the matter is that the new Iraq has become a common ground for interaction between the United States and Iran, in which both parties need each other equally. It seems that the Americans are becoming aware of the extent of that game, which, we believe, it is in their interest to do so. That could be so even if that leads to more Iranian domination in Iraq as a secondary outcome - as the rules of the game may dictate. The simple fact is that these rules are irreversible as long as the state of Iraq remains disunited, and part of the country keeps the same distance from both Washington and Tehran : i.e., remaining outside of the interaction between the two countries.The new equation in which Iraq became an important variable in the resultant Gulf - Iranian relationships caused the Arab neighbours of Iraq to raise the question of how they should handle their relationships with the new Iraq that has become a battle ground for American and Iranian domination at the same time. In the meantime, regional alliances in the Gulf were being reviewed to cope with the new regime.The foregoing would require a study for discussion and analysis, as well as a reading of the reality of the various events involving the Gulf region, and the most important problems that constitute an impediment to the security and stability of the region and to the efforts of the international actors in the region. In addition, the outcome of the post - Iraq - occupation stage from April 2003 has led to the deterioration of the internal condition in Iraq, such as a lack of security in the event of increasing terrorist activities, and increasing violence, which could be due to internal, regional or even international causes. This is not to mention the mass killings and displacements which affected the people’s morale and state of mind, blocking the development process in a broader sense. Given the close links between states in the region, the impact of the outcome has gone beyond the borders to include neighbouring countries.The fact of the matter is that the Gulf region is experiencing a real security crisis which has more than one cause, from the changes that have taken place in Iraq, to the intervention of some regional powers, particularly Iran, in attempting to dominate the whole Gulf region, and ensuing disputes between those powers and the US. This is not to mention the positive or negative impact of these facts on other local states in terms of political and economic interests. This current crisis could have unfathomable effects on the realities and future of the region and the GCC states will definitely be affected most. Given its geopolitical regime, Iraq will influence and become influenced by the neighboring states - particularly the GCC states - given the common factors and interests between the people of those countries, most importantly their common language, culture, history and the economic interests that link all Arab states in the Gulf. Yet, in the aftermath of its occupation, Iraq has changed its regional role in favour of Iran. So, the disturbance of the balance of power in the Gulf region has opened the door for Iran to increase its grab on power in the region.The United States, on the other hand, may be able to play a greater role in setting the balance of power right in the Gulf region. This will only happen should the United States succeed in closing the gap that has resulted from its occupation of Iraq in getting rid of the negative effects that the occupation has had on the country and its neighbours in the Gulf. Moreover, the United States will need to play its role as a superpower and its capacity to make an impact on the Gulf region in terms of security and stability as part of its commitment to the international community.Generally speaking, this thesis features an analysis of the reason behind the United States’ occupation of Iraq, and the deployment of the United States’ troops in GCC states. The researcher also investigates the reason behind the security crisis in the region, which could be explained by the United States’ notion that military power always proves the right option for achieving goals. This notion, however, does not pay attention to the fact that, although military force can allow for victory on the battleground, or remove an unwanted regime, it cannot guarantee political and security stability.As far as Iraq is concerned, political stability and security remain a long - term goal since the occupation. That could be due to the complex regime both locally and regionally, as well as internationally. Due to this complexity, and the wide gap between the people and rulers in most of the states in the region questioning the legitimacy of those rulers, any stability in the region is of a fragile nature. This is not to mention the lack of mutual trust between various states in the region. From this, it could be concluded that the security issue remains a major dilemma at this current stage and will probably remain so for a long time to come.Much has been written about the Gulf region from different perspectives. But relatively little has been written about the orientations and policies of post - occupation Iraq towards the region, especially after its occupation in 2003.This statement is confirmed by the results of the researcher’s on - going survey of the Arabic and English literature on this topic. Many factors may account for the scarcity of this topic in the literature, including the impact of the prevailing internal situation in Iraq and its foreign policies towards the Arab Gulf states. Needless to say, Iraq is an important factor in the Gulf region and as such, continuity or change in its foreign policy may either enhance stability or encourage conflict in the Gulf.In this A thesis, I allocate to : In draft,deals with the significance of the Gulf region and the history of the region – politically; economically; militarily – since the end of the Second World War. This includes the 2003 invasion. The significant relevance of oil production is also discussed, as is the notion of the six GCC countries.Chapter One; examines important challenges facing security in the Gulf region, specifically with respect to demographic issues, and the importance of the increasingly foreign workforce, in the context of globalization. Finally, the issue of terrorism is presented. The first section is devoted to analysing the Gulf’s demographic imbalance which constitutes a serious challenge for policymakers. On the one hand, immigration into the region is indispensable for the process of vital economic development, but on the other hand immigration constitutes a serious challenge given its unfavorable effects on the demographic structure and the labor market. This has an additional impact on social and cultural values, particularly at this current stage of globalization.Section two analyses the challenges facing the Gulf region from terrorism, and seeks to answer the following questions : Why is there diversity in the definition of terrorism? What determines who is a terrorist? What are terrorist goals and what are the means by which they decide targets? What is the nature of the hostilities committed by and the means of support received by terrorist groups? Why should the phenomenon of terrorism be studied and what are the benefits envisaged from these studies? What is the relationship between the media and modern communications and the phenomenon of terrorism in the Gulf region after the occupation of Iraq? Chapter Two; highlights Iranian policy in the face of the concept of Gulf security arrangements in two main sections. The first describes and analyses the historic background of the present issues, and Iranian perspectives on the notion of Gulf security. The second discusses Gulf security in light of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is considered to be a main player in the Gulf region, in terms of its population as well as its military and economic might compared with the other Arab Gulf states. The importance of their own security policies (including the nuclear program) and the response to those policies on the part of the other Gulf States is also considered, which encompasses a discussion of various key relationships (between the Arab States, Gulf States, Iran and the US).Chapter Three; examines the impact of post - 2003 Iraq on the security arrangements within the gulf region. Firstly, the factors that have, and continue, to influence post - 2003 Iraq are explored. Subsequently, both the influence of Iraq and the areas of influence exerted by Iraq on the security arrangements of the Gulf are considered. Finally, the perspectives of the main powers in the region with regard to Iraq’s influence on the Gulf security arrangements are presented. The impact, in particular, of the Iranian nuclear program is also discussed, before the conclusion of the chapter.Chapter Four; examines whether Iraq will have a substantial impact on Gulf security in the medium - term future, and what aspects have made and may make Iraq influential in this respect. The prospects of Iraq in this regard will consider the connection between the two, and Iraq’s future prospects; the Gulf security issue is also considered in the wider respect of Arab links, the isolation of Iraq from its Gulf surroundings, and the reality of Iraq as a battleground for regional confrontation.
