الصفحات الاولى:

تحليل العلاقة بين تجارة العراق الخارجية والنمو الاقتصادي للفترة (2013 - 1980) The relationship between Iraq's foreign trade and economic growth analysis For the period (2013 - 1980)

اسم المؤلف: هبة سعد رشيد

الجامعة: جامعة بغداد - كلية الادارة والاقتصاد

اسم المشرف: سعد عبد نجم عبد الله العبدلي

الموضوع العام: الادارة والاقتصاد

الموضوع الدقيق: الاقتصاد

الدرجة: ماجستير

اللغة: العربية

السنة: 2015

مكان الجامعة: بغداد

المستخلص: تبرز اهمية هذه الدراسة في تحليل العلاقة بين التجارة الخارجية والنمو الاقتصادي في العراق للمدة 2012 - 1980)) وهي محاولة لتحديد العلاقة التوازنية طويلة وقصيرة الاجل بين هذين المتغيرين وتم استخدام نموذج ARDL) ) الانحدار الذاتي للابطاء الموزع Auto Regressive | Highlights the importance of this study in the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Iraq for the period 2012 - 1980 analysis)) is an attempt to determine the long equilibrium relationship and short - term between these two variables and the use of( ARDL) model Self - gradient to slow distributor Auto Regressive Distributed Lag EstimateTo explain the economic relationship between the two variables, where is this form of important models used in the measurement and analysis of economic relations because of its features is the model gives estimates Kvaeh and consistent results and is biased in the analysis of economic relations as well as it does not require pre - emptive tests is applied regardless of the degree of integration between variables, whether class or zero class (1) as well as it does not require a great description of the modelTo achieve the objectives of the research has been the standard model estimate after testing the stability of exports X data series, and imports M, and GDP current prices, and exchange rate EXR, and verify the existence of a joint integration relationship between these variables.In order to achieve the objectives of the research letter it included the three chapters : the first chapter included theoretical framework of foreign trade and economic growth and the relationship between them, while the second chapter of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth ensure in Iraq, the third chapter has included theoretical framework for standard model, analyze and measure the relationship between economic variables used.The results showed the existence of a long - run equilibrium relationship between short - term and all of the foreign trade balance of trade represented by X / M dividing exports to imports and exchange rate EXR and gross domestic product (GDP) This is consistent with economic theory is consistent with the objectives of the research.

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