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دور بعض الاساليب الاحصائية في تطبيق الحيود السداسي : دراسة تطبيقية في مصنع المعتصم للزيوت النباتية في ميسان

Author name: ازهار عزيز عبد اللطيف الرمضان
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Statistics consider as the spine for the strategies of quality control system , because of its important role in using its tools , theories , analysis in these strategies. In the six sigma strategies ( DMAIC) & ( DMADV) every step of them doesn’t be empty of the statistical ways. Our study depending on applying the statistical tools and quantitative which used in the six sigma strategu to implement the performances ofquality control in the research sample to rise the required quality by know the productions derivations and the reasons of idleness the production process.This thesis includes five chapters. chapter one deals with show last studies and projects about this subject. Chapter two & three includes the statistical manners for quality control and defintion of the six sigma and role of the statistical in applying its strategy.Chapter four include the practical applying for some of the statistical tools that uses in applying the six sigma strategy of the DMAIC.Chapter five include the results and recommendations , which talks about how to develop the production in AL - Motassim factory of vegetable oils , oils line and know absence of statistical process control depending only on the lab analysis to put the elements due to the specification limit these dan with neglect the main causes of defects , so the production process and the production are not in the required quality.This study explained the importance of importing the modern information and the technical products to rise up the low level of our national industry and supplying the libraries with the modern books and researches.

تحليل الصدمات الهيكلية لنموذج الطلب الكلي باستخدام متجه الانحدار الذاتي الهيكلي (svar) : العراق حالة تطبيقية (1970 - 2010) == Analysis of The Structural Shocks To Aggregate Demand Model Using The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) : Iraq As Case Study (1970 - 2010)

Author name: خديجة عدنان حميد
Supervisor name: زهرة حسن عباس التميمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: تهتم هذه الرسالة بدراسة الناتج المحلي الاجمالي غير النفطي في العراق للمدة( 1970 - 2010) وذلك لما لهذا المكون من مكونات الناتج الاجمالي من اهميه في عملية التخطيط للسياسات الاقتصادية الهادفة لتحقيق التنمية المستدامة بالعراق ولقد تم دراسة هذا المتغير بالاعتم | This thesis bother studying non oil GDP for the period (1970 - 2010) in Iraq that is because of this component of the GDP of the importance of the components in the planning of economic policies aimed at achieving sustainable development process in Iraq a

التنبؤ بكمية النفايات البلدية المتولدة وعوامل ادارتها في قطاعات مركز محافظة البصرة باستخدام الشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية : دراسة حالة الشركة الوطنية للتنظيف في البصرة لسنة 2016 == Forecasting the amount of municipal waste generation and management factors in Center of Basrah province sectors using artificial neural networks (Case study of the National Cleaning Company in Basrah for 2016

Author name: حسين جبار بيوض المياحي
Supervisor name: زهرة حسن عباس التميمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: The study investigated the accumulation of municipal waste and its spread in the streets and alleys of the city of Basra and its residential neighborhoods, and the lack of estimates of the quantity and classification of waste. The study aimed at studying municipal waste through methods of collection and transport Methods of processing and preparation of forecasts for the municipal waste management variables represented by the number of workers, the number of mechanisms, the number of transfers and the weight of the single shift. This requires forecasting the quantity of municipal waste based on the generation factors of waste The results of the study showed that the waste forecasting model required one hidden layer, a number of different cells for each segment, and a model for predicting waste management factors. I needed two hidden layers and a number of different cells for each segment. The results also showed that the highest quantity of waste was in the Khalej sector and the lowest quantity of waste in the Qibla section.

بناء انموذج هجين عصبي - جيني لحل مشكلة جدولة ورش العمل المضببة مع التطبيق == Build a Hybrid Model (Neural - Genetic) to solve The Fuzzy Job - Shop Scheduling Problem with Application

Author name: عبد الكريم عبد الامير عبد الكريم كوشع
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: The Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP) is one of the complex polynomial problems, which are increasingly complicated by the increasing overlap of jobs and machines. Despite the many methods used to find good solutions, most solutions are ineffective in practice due to uncertainty of real processing times. This is consistent with the nature of the problem, as most of the processing times are inaccurate due to different working experience and machine performance.Therefore, the maturity dates are uncertain. This study adopted a methodology of work to build a hybrid model using the artificial intelligence systems, which is represented in Hopfield neural networks and the genetic algorithm.Resolving any Fuzzy Job Shop Scheduling Problem is through fuzzing the processing times by a triple fuzzy number and fuzzing due date by a double fuzzy number. Hopfield's neural networks are used to improve the performance of the genetic algorithm by generating an initial generation of P size, represents nearoptimization solutions, used by the genetic algorithm to perform mating, crossover, and mutation. in order to obtain the best possible sequence of job orders which may contribute significantly to making the appropriate decision in order to achieve the objectives of the establishment and thus achieve the satisfaction of the customer by delivering the product on time, reduce the time of completion and maximize the use of resources.The study was applied to Al - Ghadeer Printing and Publishing Co. Ltd., where the fuzzing processing times and the fuzzing due date of the four different jobs were processed by eleven machines according to the nature of the job and based on the data in the company records.Finally, the study was able to reach a set of conclusions, the most important of which is to achieve the hypothesis of the involved research. The hybrid model proposed by the researcher will be better in obtaining the optimal jobs sequence, to reduce the finish time and to reach customer satisfaction by delivering the product at the due date through the method of the neural networks and the method of thegenetic algorithm.

استخدام انموذجي الة المتجه الداعم SVM والانحدار اللجوجستي LRM في تصنيف البيانات مع تطبيق عملي على مرضى داء السكري في مستشفى الموانئ العام في العراق == Comparison Between The Support vector machine (SVM) and Logistic Regression Model For Classification With application to diabetic patients at Basrah port hospital

Author name: احمد عبد الصمد حبيب ثامر الجبوري
Supervisor name: فوزيت غالب عمر السعدون
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: In this thesis, the process of classification or categorizing statistical data was studied by using the dual - response support vector machine and the logistic regression model based on the correct classification of observations for both methods, The simulation was used in the two methods with different samples and different variations and different arithmetic mean, then the comparison between the two methods, Then applied the two methods in the practical side and with real data for diabetes patients obtained from the Endocrine Center at the General Ports Hospital in Basra , Also the comparison was made between the two methods used in the study. Finally the study found that the supporting vector machine was the best in the classification whether using the real data in the practical side or by using the simulation on the experimental side with different samples of especially when data overlap.

نماذج الاستبدال للانظمة القابلة للتصليح وغير القابلة للتصليح باستخدام نظرية التجديد == Replacement models For Repairable and non - Repairable Systems By Using Renewal Theory

Author name: مروة احسان عبد الله ابو كرده
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: Of the issues that concerned knowledge of statistics is the reliability of the machines and equipment due to the high costs incurred by business organizations, so it requires the use of scientific methods in order to determine an optimal plan to replace the lowest possible cost Faculty and less downtime during the life of the machine or device.In this research, the use of one of the statistics tools in stochastic process (replacement), to find the best model the replacement of the device or Equipment idle by the comparison between the proposed models , a preventive replacement model , the planned replacement model and failure replacement model under two criteria : the minimum total cost and minimum downtime, and the researcher have programs to calculate the total cost rate language Matlab R2012a.In this research, the application of water desalination device in solidarity for grinding grain plant because the time between the last time repairs failure represents a random variable and has knowledge of those times, (times) from the mill, and using statistical program easy fit 5.5 professional was to determine the type of distribution followed by the time failures and repairs . through the choice of distribution, which has the lowest value of the corresponding test Goodness of fit.The chapter dealing with the practical side "for the application of Rayleigh distribution for the time of failure and distribution Frechet time to repair the three models mentioned above" the real data for the Failures desalination device.The research found that the best model is the preventive replacement model where age was the best replacement is 6 months so that gives a minimum total cost.

نماذج ماركوف في التحليل الاحصائي والتنبؤ باعداد المصابين بالامراض السرطانية للاطفال من الفئة العمرية [14 - 0] في محافظة البصرة دراسة تطبيقية من سجلات رئاسة صحة البصرة للمدة (2011 - 2008)

Author name: رغدة حامد تركي السعدون
Supervisor name: فوزية غالب عمر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: لا شك ان الطفولة احدى المراحل الحاسمة من عمر الانسان. وتعد مرحلة اساسية اذ تشغل ما يقارب ربع حياته، ولاحداثها اثار واضحة في بقية العمر سواء اكان ذلك في السلوك ام في الصفات. وهي مرحلة انتقال من مرحلة معينة الى مرحلة اعلى اكثر تطورا، الامر الذي يقتضي الاهتمام المباشر والصحيح والجاد في صحة الطفولة المبكرة والصحة النفسية.لقد تعرضت محافظة البصرة في فترات التسعينات وبداية عام 2003 الى التلوث البيئي بسبب الحروب فضلا عن الانبعاثات الحرارية مما ادى الى ازدياد نسبة الاصابة بالامراض السرطانية في عموم العراق، وفي محافظة البصرة على وجه الخصوص، ولجميع الفئات العمرية ومنها فئة الاطفال بعمر (0 - 14). لذوامن خلال البحث، تم التنبؤ باعداد المصابين والمتوفيين بالامراض السرطانية لمرحلة الطفولة في محافظة البصرة، باستخدام سلاسل ماركوف في التحليل الاحصائي ، في دراسة للعمليات العشوائية التي تتميز بان حالتها المستقبلية لا تعتمد على حالتها في الماضي وهذا النوع من العمليات العشوائية يسمى بعمليات ماركوف ، وتم استخدام البرمجة الديناميكية للتنبؤ باحتمالات الفشل وكذلك استخدام ماركوف المخفي من خلال خوارزمية فيتربي لتحديد احتمالات الفشل. اذ ان للتنبؤ الدقيق دورا مهموابارزا في عملية اتخاذ القرارات. واعطاء رؤية مستقبلية لما ستكون علية الظواهر والمتغيرات في المستقبل. ونجاح الالية يقاس عاده بدقة تنبؤهوابما ان دقة الاساليب تشكل اساسا فانه من الواضح ان الاسلوب في تمثيل الالية التي اسهمت في توفير المعلومات الاساسية للمؤسسات الصحية، ومراكز البحوث ووضع السياسات الصحية الفعلية للمؤسسات الصحية للاستفادة من الدراسة العلمية التطبيقية في مجال صحة الطفولة. استنتجت الدراسة من نتائج التنبؤ بنموذج ماركوف ارتفاع عدد المصابين وكذلك الوفيات في الاعوام القادمة . اذ ان تحليل ماركوف خاصة التتابعي يساعدالادارة الصحية للتنبؤ باحتمالات الفشل والتوقع لاحتمالات الخطر وهذا جزء من نظرية ادارة الخطر. | There is no doubt that one of the crucial stages of childhood from the age of man. The basic stage as operates approximately a quarter of his life and for creating effects are clear in the rest of ALamrsoa whether in behavior or in detalls. A Phase transition from a certain stage to the more advanced stage, which requires immediate and proper and serious attention in early childhood health and mental health. Basra province have been periods in the nineties of 2003 to the environmental pollution due to wars, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, leading to increased morbidity of cancer in the whole of Iraq ,in basra province in particular , and for all age groups, including children age category (0 - 14) . So it is through research, was predicted to prepare the injured and the dead cancerous disease of childhood in the province of basra,using Markov chains in the statistical analysis ,in the study of random processes that condition which is characterized by the future do not depend on the condition in the past , this type of operation is called Markov operations . dynamic programming was used to predict the prospects for Alvh Asthaddam markov so is hidden through viterbi algorithm to determine the likelihood of failure ,As the exact prediction important and prominent role in the decision - making process. future, in the study of random processes characterized by the condition in the past. This type of random processes called Markov processes. A To predict that the exast prominent and important role what will be the decision - making process. And give a futuistic vision of what will be the phenomena and changes in the future .And The success of the mechanism usually is measured accurately and it its forecast that the methods accuracy formthe basis it is clear that the method in the representation of the mechanism that contributedto the provision of basic information and health institutions , and research centers and The development of effective health policy and health institutions to take advantage of Alttabiqihvi scientific study of the field of child health. The study concluded that the results of the Markov model topredict the high casualties as well as deaths in the coming years.As the private Markov sequential analysis helpshealth department to predict the prospects of failure and the expectation of the potential for danger and thisis past of a theory.

تكامل اسلوبي تحليل مظروف البيانات وعمليات التحليل الهرمي المضبب لقياس وتقويم كفاءة اداء كليات جامعة البصرة

Author name: احمد هشام محمد طاهر
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University Of Basrah - Faculty Of Administration And Economics
Language: Arabic
University location: Basrah
First pages:
Abstract: The measurement and evaluation the efficiency of performance academic institutions is one of the important topics that received wide attention by governments and organizations dealing under the auspices of the higher education sector, as the political and economic transformations prominent impact on the emergence of problems affected directly and indirectly in the evaluation of the efficiency performance of all institutions and in various orientations. So has adopted this study a new methodology we tried through which address the problem of measuring and evaluating the efficiency of the performance of academic institutions through vector estimate of the weights for the inputs and outputs of Colleges University of Basrah and prioritize according to the views of decision makers, where this study aims to adopt an integrative methodology between the two methods are important in decision - making and evaluation process efficient performance under multiple Criteria, as well as the adoption of curriculum Fuzzy Logicaddressing the situation of uncertainty in the views of decision - makers, so the study adopted in its approach to the style of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F - AHP) to estimate the vector of weights for inputs and outputs of the Colleges University of Basrah, and then these weights adoption in development of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models within the Input and Output orientation of return for constant and variable for assessment the efficiency of the performance of the Colleges University of Basrah, consisted study in the approach of the three first chapters included methodology of the study and previous studies, The second chapter included the theoretical framework of the study as it enables us which determine the theoretical foundation and Mathematical modeling of the study, was introduced four sections, The third chapter included the practical aspect of the study, which was able to discuss the results in a number of scenarios to assess the efficiency of the performance of the Colleges University of Basrah, it was able study to identify efficient and inefficient colleges, reference and colleges per unit inefficient, as well as that of the study was able to determine the improvement in the values of the required inputs and outputs of colleges is efficient in order to achieve full efficiency.This study was applied to the University of Basrah institutions of society study included (16) College, has been the program of Data Envelopment Analysis V.2 adoption, Excel 2010, SPSS 21 in the initial assessment data analysis, Matlab7 Programmers, to get the desired results in the analysis The study data. Finally, was able to study to reach a number of conclusions and recommendations, the most important of the adoption of the Stochastic and fuzzy approaches in the development DEA models for the purpose of evaluating the efficiency of performance, and comparison between them under the multiplicity of Criteria, the adoption of the approach periodic assessment to measure and evaluate the efficiency of the performance of all institutions and stand at the level of performance in those institutions ... etc.
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