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العوامل المؤثرة على الاوضاع الصحية والتعليمية في العراق ضمن مسح شبكة معرفة العراق (IKN) لعام 2011 باستعمال التحليل العنقودي == Factors Affecting The Health And Educational Conditions In Iraq As Part of Iraq Knowledge Network Survy (IKN) 2011 By Using Cluster Analysis

Author name: وسن عبد الهادي كاظم الجبوري
Supervisor name: هاني عبد الله حسن
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر دراسة مؤشرات الصحة والتعليم وتحليلها، من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية.لذلك اختار الباحث هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات مسح شبكة معرفة العراق IKN للاسرة في العراق الذي نفذ خلال ال | The study of health and education indicators and analysis of important issues for Iraq, which aims to achieve economic and social development of more realistic.So chose researcher this search , using the scanning knowledge network Iraq IKN family in Iraq who carried out during the year 2011 from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the subsequent construction plans for health and education depending on the data of this survey, and using the bag statistical programs ready (SPSS) to reach the variables health and education have a direct impact on the level of the country.Showed signs of health and education in Iraq as follows : The number of households surveyed 29785 , while the number of families not responding has reached 910 families at a higher rate 3.9% , meaning that the response rate was % 96.9 , as the number of households responding 28875 Dynasty recorded the highest rates of response each of the provinces ( Qadisiyah , Diyala and Salah al - Din ) the lowest response rates were in the provinces ( Dohuk and Erbil ) as the average number of individuals in the family 6.4 persons.As has been the adoption of style cluster analysis and conversion data variables ten ( which is the health situation : - the difficulty in vision , difficulty hearing , difficulty in movement , difficulty remembering or concentrating, difficulty communicating with others, difficulties in self - care , assess the health of the individual, educational status, enrollment of individual educational institutions, the number of years its entirety individual successfully) to the formula normative and to get rid of the different units of measure these variables and thus ensure the health of the implementation phase of the process of data classification and determine the extent of the relationship between the elements in terms of similarity or difference and are in the final phase entry in clustering methods and analysis.The study includes four chapters of the first chapter includes the introduction and the goal of the research and the research methodology and the data source in addition to the historical background of the analysis of the cluster , Chapter II contains the theoretical side , which includes statistical analysis using the method of cluster analysis , while the third chapter goes out to analyze the data ( the practical side ) and using the bag statistical programs ready (version20) SPSS to get to the health and education indicators which have a direct impact on the country's development and health education , the fourth quarter from which to determine the conclusions that are accessible through this study also includes recommendations and sources.The results of the cluster analysis to health and education indicators that there is a convergence between neighboring provinces a bilateral clustering problem , linked to adjacent provinces , which demonstrates the striking similarity in patterns of health and education between these provinces.There are provinces have autonomy relative from other provinces and sometimes appear individually , such as conservative ( Erbil , Dohuk, Diyala) being characterized by the conditions of health and education are different from others, it is useful to recall that the Diyala province was experiencing exceptional circumstances during the period of the survey , and the provinces and in particular the province of Kurdistan Erbil so it passes through the economic growth phase sets it apart from the rest of the provinces.Characterized by the province of Baghdad ( urban) and ( rural ) Convergence the ( health and education ) with the Central provinces of Iraq in the late stage as moving away from clustering with its neighboring provinces in the early stages of being the capital.There are no general trend for the clustering of Maysan province , as we see Sometimes clustered with the central provinces , we see Sometimes clustered with the northern provinces, and sometimes we see other clustered with the province of Anbar , Diyala and reflects the instability of this poor province.In general , the central and southern governorates health and educational characteristics differ from the characteristics of the northern provinces. The results showed that there is a similarity between attended the provinces for health and education variables , and note the complete hierarchical cluster assembly reflecting the early stages of the provinces affected by the conditions of the country in general.Rural province of Sulaymaniyah as special - way found clustring the late stages , and along the tree line in the chart evidence of the lack of similarity of conditions of health and education from other provinces countryside. Sulaymaniyah also attended the same property

مقارنة طرائق تقدير المعلمات والمعولية لانماذج الاختبارات المعجلة والنمو لبيانات المراقبة من النوع الثاني مع تطبيق عملي

Author name: ورود باسم نور بهية
Supervisor name: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نظرا لاهمية المعولية في التطبيقات الصناعية والهندسية فقد ظهرت الحاجة لاختبارات المعولية والتي هي سلسلة من الاختبارات والكشف عن العوامل التي تظهر خلال الاختبار وتاثيرات ومسببات عطل الماكنة نتيجة سوء الاستخدام وغيرها من الاسبباب وكذلك معرفة مدى ملائمة الان | Reliability has an important role in both the industrial and engineering applications. So the need for Reliability Tests appeared are series of tests a discover out of factors that appear through the test, also an effects too casese to defuse, probably to be created cases misuse a machine and other than, knowledge limit of fit a specifics production addition for getting on goodness of production. Therefore, the need for research to set of tests for censor data from ( Type II ) for exponential distribution with one parameter and these tests it’s (Accelerated Life Testing) to complete estimation parameters and reliability for the test models and these models it’s (Accelerated Cycling, Constant Stress ,Arrhenius and Eyring ) with tow methods ( maximum likelihood method, least squares method ) for all models above ,either Number of Units on Test To be complete calculation number of units inside in the test. And the other test is Reliability Growth includes three curves are Idealized Growth curve estimation parameters and reliability with maximum likelihood method, Duane Growth curve takes estimation parameters and reliability with least squares method, Exponential Reliability Growth Curve take estimation parameters and reliability by means of constraints for finding an optimal solution. Also The thesis so falls into four chapters. the first chapter is the introduction, the objective of the thesis as well as the review of literature. the second chapter tackles theoretical aspects contains exponential distribution,properties exponential distribution, estimation method, acceptance testing, accelerated life test, reliability growth testing and confidence intervals. The third chapter(application side)include tow parts,the first takes censor data (type II) from source (separate the soap off Al - Rasheed factory) and subjugate it for goodness of fit tests to be complete application on accelerated and growth tests, the second takes the simulation experimental and compared between estimation parameters for tests accelerated and growth for all models the test by depending on the statistic measure (MSE). Finally, the fourth chapter contains the more important findings and recommendations as well as the future visions which the thesis included. Also the thesis contains computer programs prepared by the researcher as well as another especial attaches.

طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط الخطي الطبيعي الملتوي في حالة القياسات المكررة مع تطبيق عملي == Method of Estimating Parameters of The Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model In The Case of Repeated Measures With Practical Application

Author name: هند وليد عبد الرحمن الجبوري
Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذا البحث دراسة احد اهم النماذج الواسعة الاستعمال والتطبيق في تحليل البيانات التي تتصف بكون المشاهدات فيها تاخذ شكل قياسات مكررة Repeated Measures والذي يعد تعميم للانموذج المختلط الخطي (LMM) في حالة عدم تحقق الطبيعية Normality، وهو الانموذج المختل | In this research, the one of the most important widely used and application model was studied in analysis the data which are described by the observations take repeated measures form, which regarded as generalization of Linear Mixed Model (LMM) in the case of the lack normality, it is the Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model (SN - LMM), which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the observations take repeated measures form and correlated among of them, this model express of these correlations by the random effect, it also achieved normality through the assumption that the data are distributed multivariate skew normal distribution.Also the research is concerned with the multivariate skew distribution generally and multivariate skew normal distribution specially with addressing the importance and used of these distributions, then dealing with the Skew - Normal Linear Mixed Model (SN - LMM) from its importance, used, properties, modeling, and parameters estimation methods Three important method are used for estimation the fixed effect parameters, random effect parameters and skewness parameters, in addition a proposed method by researcher, these methods are : 1) Maximum likelihood (ML) Method.2) Restricted Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method.3) Bayes Method.4) Proposed Method.A comparison among the best of these methods is made in the application aspect which contained the practical application on two clinical experiment including two samples of diabetic patients data, Who were given a new drug, the data of two samples are represent the repeated monthly measures for the level of sugar and some other variables which are taken for patient from the beginning of the experiment, after three months , and after six months from start to give them the new drug, in aim to study the effect of age and sex, which represented the fixed effect, also the visits times, that the repeated monthly measures are taken in these visits for the sugar level and other variables which represented the random effect, the comparison among the best method are held by using statistical standard the Mean Square Error (MSE), it was found in general that the proposed method is the best to estimate the fixed effects because of its lower mean square error compared to other methods, and the Bayes method is the best among these method to estimate the random effect and random errors because of its lower mean square error compared to other methods.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير معلمات الانـموذج الثنائي اللوجستك المختلط باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيق عملي == Comparing The Estimation Methods of The Parameters of The Logistic Linear Mixed Model By Using The Simulation With Practical Application

Author name: هند وليد عبد الرحمن الجبوري
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذا البحث دراسة احد اهم النماذج الواسعة الاستخدام والتطبيق في تحليل البيانات التي تاخذ شكل تجمعات Clustered والتي تكون ذات استجابات مرتبطة Correlated وهو الانموذج الخطي العام المختلطGeneralized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) لتحليل البيانات الطولية Long | This research was conserning in the study of one of the important models that are widely used in analyzing the data which take clustered form and have correlated responses, this model is Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) for analyzing the longitudinal data which it's responses are correlated. So this research was dealing with this model in an expanded form including its importance, uses, feature, modeling and the estimation methods then focusing on one of the most widely used examples when the responses of longitudinal Data are Binary which is Binary Logistic Mixed Model taking into account its modeling, importance, uses and the parameters estimation methods, so three important estimation methods were used to estimate the fixed and random effects parameters and these are : 1) Classical maximum likelihood (ML) Method.That include three basic algorithm by which the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained and it's as follows : I) Monte Carlo Newton Raphson (MCNR).II) Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM).III) Simulation Maximum Likelihood (SML).2) Robust Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method.3) Penalized - Quasi Likelihood (PQL) Method.In the experimental aspect comparison was done of which is the best among these methods through the simulation procedure by using Monte Carlo method and implementing several experiments using two of the important statistical measures which are Mean Square Error (MSE) and Bias, generally as a result it was found that Robust Maximum Likelihood (RML) Method is the best between these methods as it has minimum Mean square error and minimum bias comparing with the other methods.While in the application aspect practical application was done on data represent the successive monthly measurements for diebetic children whom depend on the insulin treatment which represent the fixed effect and the patient represents the random effect in order to study the effect of both the insulin dose and the patient on the blood sugar rate, it was found that the insulin dose has significant effect on the blood sugar rate while the patient has not that effect

استخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية في التببؤ بمحصول الحنطة في جنوب العراق == The Use of Geographic Information Systems In The Prediction of The Wheat Crop In Southern Iraq

Author name: هلاء سعدون شكر
Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The wheat crop is considered one of the most important strategic food crops and takes the first place in some countries in the world. So this crop requires growth control began from the time of planting and until harvesting. The study focused on predicting the productivity of wheat crop in township Shihamia / Essaouira district / in Wasit province as a model adopted for the rest of Iraq's provinces by using technologies (Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems) in devising data independent of the factorsthat have affected the productivity of the crop using (Geostatistic) analysis through (kriging) tool in an environment (Arcgis), and visual satellite captured from satellite (landsat 8) is also used. The extraction of natural vegetative differences guide (NDVI), as evidence showed reflectivity values ranging between ( - 0.02 - 0.5) as the minimum value of the evidence which indicated that the production of wheat crop in these places is low. The upper limit indicated that the production of wheat crop is high density in thoseareas. The surface temperature extracted from the space visible as well as the natural vegetative differences guide. Results indicate that the month of March is one of the appropriate months to get to know the productivity of wheat crop. The results showed when conducting analysis in the SPSS program that factor relative humidity though influential in the expected output when using directory natural vegetative differences values (NDVI). The climatic factors and the surface temperature and salinity influential in expected production in Geostatistic analysis, as Geostatistic analysis in an environment (Arcgis) is better than in the SPSS statistical analysis software because it depends on the spatial relationships between the studied samples

المقارنة بين الطرائق الاحصائية المستخدمة في التنبؤ لاستيراد بعض المواد الغذائية في العراق == A Comparision of Statistical Methods That Using For Forcasting To Importing Som Material Foods In The Iraq

Author name: هديل محمد زكي مهدي
Supervisor name: سهيل نجم عبود
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الاستيراد احد الظواهر الاقتصادية التي تساهم في تحقيق الامن الغذائي وسد الفجوة الغذائية، وللتمكن من دراسة التغيرات التي تحصل في الظواهر الاقتصادية في المستقبل وتحديد قيم هذه التغيرات لابد من الاعتماد على انشاء السلاسل الزمنية وتحليلها، ويعد اسلوب تحليل | The import of the economic phenomena that contribute to the achievement of food security and bridging the food gap, and to be able to study the changes that happen in the economic phenomena in the future and determine the values of these changes to be relying on the establishment of the time series and analyzed, as is the style of the time series of the most important statistical methods analysis used in the prediction of random phenomena in the future values based on what happened in the past, which helps in the development of sound future plans for economic development. In this research were compared between two methods to predict the import quantities of rice, wheat and sugar for the next five years (General Trend Methods, and the Method of Box - Jenkins), where he was relying on the criterion of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to compare the methods used to figure out the best way to predict. Proven method of Box - Jenkins superiority on the General Trend Methods while the best model of Box - Jenkins models to predict the quantities of imported rice is ARIMA(0,1,2), and the best model to predict the quantities of imported wheat was ARIMA(1, 1,1), either imported sugar amounts was the best model ARIMA(0,1,1), and based on the predicted values through the Box - Jenkins models, it was observed that there is an increase in imported quantities for each of rice and wheat in the next five years, either sugar amounts appeared there proven to import.

بناء انموذج ديناميكي وانموذج هدفي في ظل البيئة الضبابية مع تطبيق عملي == Building of Dynamic Model And Goal Model Under Fuzzy Environment With Practical Application

Author name: هبة الله سعد عبد الغني
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في مشكلة اقصر مسار لشبكة اعتيادية يفترض بان يكون صانع القرار متاكدا من البيانات في الشبكة, والتي تمثل الوقت والمسافة والكلفة...الخ, لكن في واقع الحياة توجد دائما شكوك حول هذه البيانات اي لايمكن تحديدها بشكل دقيق, ففي مثل هذه الحالة يتم تمثيلها بالاعداد | In the shortest path problem of classical network, It is supposed that the decision maker has assured from network data ,which represent time , distance and cost …etc. But in real live there are always suspicions about these data that is may not be determined exactly , in this case it is represented by fuzzy numbers.In this thesis a directed acyclic network was built with times represented by triangular fuzzy numbers to find to transport the medicines from Iscan store to Al_Amal hospital of cancer tumors where the shortest path has minimum time among other paths in the network ,two deferent methods were used for solving the problem, the first method is Bellman dynamic programming.In this method a fuzzy times are treated by signed distance ranking method and solve the problem as classical network. The second method is to formulate the problem with fuzzy times as a multi objective linear programming model and use the weighted additive method to unite the objective functions as a single objective function with a defined weights and then solve the problem classical linear programming we found the shortest path in both the methods are same and minimum time in the first method equal to the optimal solution for second method , and in addition minimum fuzzy time in the second method Is obtained.

تقديرات الهجرة الداخلية في العراق باستخدام النماذج السكانية == Internal Migration Estimates In Iraq By Using Population Models

Author name: هالة وليد حمدي الزبيدي
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري | خالد زهدي مصطفى خواجه
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ادى تزايد حركة السكان في العراق الى حصول هجرة داخلية.و لاهمية هذه المشكلة وما ترتب عليها من نتائج، لذا فقد حاولت الباحثة من خلال هذه الدراسة تحليل البيانات التي لها علاقة في نماذج حركة الهجرة الداخلية.وتهدف الى استنباط تيارات الهجرة الداخلية في القطر،وذ | Population Increasing movements in Iraq cause an internal migration. In spite of danger of this problem and what effects of it, so the researcher has tried through this study analysis the data, which relation in internal migration on models. Aiming at internal migration streams in country by using special population models of internal migration by direct and indirect methods. First chapter including general entrance displays general concepts and determines the problem and the purpose of the research and its importance and the background. The second chapter is measuring internal migration in Iraq and discusses the methods of the measure, the principal data references for migration, population distribution, the internal migration data in Iraqi census, the problem and difficulty of migration, the method of measuring internal migration from the census data is discussed by direct methods like Birth place, Duration of residence, The last residence and The reason of changing the residence place. The indirect methods like Vital statistics, The Survival ratio and National growth rate. The third chapter discusses the study of migration rates and ratios in Iraq and the demographic trace and divided into direct method like migration stream rates and in - migration, out - migration, net - migration rates and Birth - residence index, Gross intercensal interchange of population and Basic model. Indirect method like migration rates by using Survival ratio rates method, Vital statistics rates method, National growth rates method, and discuss the mathematical model and its relationship to internal migration, migration economic, demographic traces and migration effect on population growth. And the impetuses to internal migrations movement. The forth chapter discuss some important conclusions and recommendations.

العوامل المؤثرة على انتاج بعض المحاصيل الحقلية في العراق == Factors Affecting The Production of Some Field Crops In Iraq

Author name: نور كمال عبد الكريم
Supervisor name: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: نظرا لاهمية زراعة المحاصيل الحقلية في العراق لتوفير الغذاء وتحقيق الاكتفاء الذاتي وكانت محافظة كربلاء واحدة من محافظات العراق التي تمتاز بتوفير رقعة الاراضي الصالحة للزراعة ولخصوصية هذه المنطقة اذ تشكل الاراضي الرملية نسبة كبيرة من اراضيها لذا من الضرو

التنبؤ بانتاج التمور في الفرات الاوسط باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية == Forecasting Production of Dates In The Middle Euphrates Using Time Series

Author name: نعمة ساهون شنان
Supervisor name: رباب عبد الرضا صالح البكري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد العراق من اقدم مواطن النخيل في العالم وكان لاشجار النخيل ومنتجاتها وبساتينها اهمية بالغة في الحياة الاقتصادية والاجتماعية على مر العصور باعتبارها من اهم المصادر الغذائية والمعاشية، وان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية والتنبؤ بها من الاساليب الاحصائية المهمة في | Iraq is one of the oldest homes of palm in the world and was a palm trees and the products and orchards of extreme importance in the economic and social life throughout the ages as one of the most important food sources and living. The time - series analysis and forecasting it is of important statistical methods in the construction of the future plans of the phenomena of life in all directions and interpreted through certain periods of time. In this research was to predict the time series to date production in the provinces of the Middle Euphrates in Iraq, which included the provinces (Karbala, Babil, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Muthanna) using time - series models, including the general trend models, Exponential smoothing models, Box - Jenkins models in order to choose the best model of each of these models has been shown that the best model of the general trend models is the model the Quadratic trend and that the best model of exponential smoothing models is single exponential smoothing model and the model ARIMA (2,1,1) is the best Box - Jenkins models it gives accurate predictions through calculable Q account and compared ?², which shows the appropriateness of the model Has been predicted for the coming years, the use of the models above.

تقدير الفعالية النسبية لانموذج القطع المكافئ في تجارب نسبة الميل لقياس تاثير زيتي الزعتر والكتان على الوزن == Estimation of Relative Potency For Parabolic Model In Slope Ratio Assays To Measure Effect of Thyme And Flax Oils On Weight

Author name: نضال بهجت محي الحيالي
Supervisor name: قيس سبع خماس
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتناول البحث تقدير الفعالية النسبية (Relative Potency) لزيت الزعتر(الاختباري) نسبة الى الكتان (القياسي) لانموذج غيرخطي (parabolic model) باستعمال طريقة احصائية تكرارية وهي : (طريقة البحث الخطي) ودراسة تاثيرالتكرار عند الجرعة صفر فقط لمعرفة مدى الابتعاد عن | This study deals with the problem of estimation the relative potency of thymus oil and linum oil , for parabolic model by using the : line search method , and we study the effect of replication at zero dose and near zero dose on the type of relationship whether is linear or not , we partition the thesis into five chapters , the first included the introduction and the aim of this research work and historical review, the second chapter included the theoretical part where we stated the relative potency estimation method for nonlinear model, the third chapter went through the experiential part of this research work, the four chapter went through the practical part of this research work, finally chapter five went through the conclusions and recommendations of this research work, we conclude that the potency of thymus oil is (0.115) times the linum oil according to the parabolic model

اسقاطات القوى العاملة، التعليم والصحة للتركيب العمري - النوعي لسكان العراق للمدة (1997 - 2017) == Projections of The Labor Force, Education And Health For Age Structure - Quality of The Iraqi Population For The Period (1997 - 2017)

Author name: ندى احمد امين
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان هدف معظم الاسقاطات السكانية هو ان تقدم تنبؤا مستقبليا بشكل تقريبي عن عدد السكان، ومثل هذه الاسقاطات تحسب على اساس افتراض الاستمرار المستقبلي المعقول للاتجاهات المؤثرة على المتغيرات الديموغرافية لحجم السكان التي على ضوء نتائجها يمكن مواجهة الاحتياجا | The goal of most population projections is to provide a predictable as it is approximation of the number of the population, and such projections are calculated on the basis of the presumption of continuing future reasonable trends affecting the demographic variables of population size, And that in the light of the results can meet human needs in various fields of economic, social and political issues related to. Years and the fact that the last census in Iraq was in 1997 for each of Iraq's provinces except the province of Kurdistan was necessary to address and correct the census data for the base year (1997), adopted Spectrum program is ready to get on the population projections for the period (1997 - 2017) and from Age projections - for each quality of the workforce - health and education to build a base Demographic data and broad adoption in many purposes such as planning and development. The research is divided into five chapters include the first (Introduction and objective of this research, studies and research The former) and II (the theoretical side, test and pave the data) and III (data Basic assumptions) The fourth chapter dealt with the practical side has included a chapter V presents conclusions that were reached and the most important recommendations that the researcher deems necessary

تحليل وقياس اتجاهات الفقر في العراق للمدة 1980 - 2005

Author name: ندوة هلال جودة
Supervisor name: نبيل جعفر عبد الرضا المرسومي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

مقارنة طرائق المويجة المتقلصة لتقدير انموذج الانحدار اللامعلمي في حالة عدم تجانس التباين

Author name: نبيلة عبد الهادي فائز الشريف
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان اساليب الانحدار اللامعلمي توفر طريقة كفوءة في ايجاد شكل في مجاميع البيانات بدون فرض انموذج انحدار معلمي حيث اننا نلجا للانحدار اللامعلمي عندما لا نملك انموذج معلمي محقق منه بصورة جيدة للموضوع قيد الدراسة او عندما نملك انموذج معلمي محقق منه بصورة جيدة

تحليل احصائي مقارن لانفاق الاسرة العراقية باستخدام المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة (2007) ومسح شبكة معرفة العراق (2011) == Comparative Statistical Analysis of Family Spending In Iraqi Depending On Social And Economic Survey (2007) And Iraqi Knowledge Network Survey (2011)

Author name: نبيل صالح محمد رضا معله
Supervisor name: سهيل نجم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد الدراسات الخاصة بالانفاق والطلب على السلع والخدمات من اهم الدراسات الاقتصادية وذلك لاهمية الانفاق في عملية التخطيط الاقتصادي من جهة ولكونه يمثل جوانب مهمة من تفصيلات الحياة اليومية للمواطن من جهة ثانية. اختار الباحث هذا البحث بالاستعانة ببيانات المسح | The studies of spending and demand for goods and services is the most important economic studies, to the importance of spending in the process of economic planning on the one hand and because it represents important aspects of the details of daily life of the citizen on the other hand.Researcher selected this research, using data survey of social and economic status of families in Iraq who carried out during the year (2007) and the survey data of network knowledge of Iraq (IKN) for the year (2011), which were carried out by Central Bureau of Statistics. For comparison in the pattern of distribution of spending on various goods and services and using the ready software package Statistical (SPSS) to gain access to the results. Been tested nature of the distribution of variables tunnels and it emerged as natural distributing and studying differences of variables between the two surveys emerged that there are significant differences of the goods (beverages, clothing, health, communications, services) while no significant differences for goods (food, electricity, furniture, transportation , entertainment, education , hotels).this research has divided to four chapters. The first chapter touch on the natural of spending, previous studies and most important budget researches of the family, while the second chapter deal with the theoretical side, and some basic concepts of analysis the global and the cluster, while the third chapter deal with the practical side of the data obtained ,in Chapter four the most important conclusions and recommendations has been developed.

مقارنة مقدر المنوال الحصين مع بعض المقدرات الاخرى ولمعلمة الموقع == Comparing The Robust Estimator of The Mode With Some Other Estimators For Location Parameter

Author name: نازك جعفر صادق
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The robust estimators are these estimators which resist all cases of data contamination by outlier values which are suitable to a wide sector of distribution. The present values deals with searching for the best estimator for location because this topic is important for the high frequency cases of contamination. Hence it is important to use robust ways in choosing the best robust estimator which being affected by outlier values. The aim of this study is to choose the estimator which is most immune to asymmetric distributions and to any rate of contamination. It also aims at studying the function of such an estimator through simulation experiments which take many cases into consideration.The study falls into four chapters. The first chapter is an introductory one which includes the introduction, the aim and a historical servey for certain general concepts which have close relation to the topic understudy. The second chapter deals with the median and robust estimation which include median estimator and other location estimators and the criterion used in the present study. As for the third chapter, it includes the experimental side of the study. Finally, the fourth chapter, it deals with the conclusions and recommendations which the study comes up with.Some of the important which researcher has come up with are that has been able to find a most robust estimator after comparing it with a group of estimators. This estimator is the Robust Parameter Estimator (RPM). It can be considered much better than many available robust estimators.

الاسقاطات السكانية لمحافظـــة البصـــرة للفتـــرة (1997 - 2022) باستخدام نتائج التعداد العام لسنة 1997 في العراق == The Populational Projections of Basrah Governorate For The Period 1997 - 2022

Author name: نادية علي عايد الحميداوي
Supervisor name: بشرى علي يعقوب الجعفري | زهرة حسن عباس التميمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاسقاطات السكانية من الطرائق الاساسية التي تستند عليها اغلب الدراسات والبحوث في مجالات متعدده، اذ ان معرفة اعداد السكان والتغيرات الحاصلة له بصورة مستمرة تعد الركيزة الاساسية التي تعتمد عليها خطط التنمية ولان التعدادات السكانية تجري كل خمس او عشر سن | Populational projections are considered to be the basic methods , which most studies and researches depend upon. By these methods it could be knowing the demographical , social , and economic features of the society , which these are considered to be the bases of most development plans. As the population census is carried out in every five or ten years , so the importance of following the populational projections has been apperied as a good way to be used.The aim of this study is to show the populational projections of Basrah governorate for the peried 1997 - 2022. According to the census of the year 1997 and by using the component method, which requires projections and estimations for the fertility , mortality and migration separatily therefore , we study the level and the direction of fertility for the period before year 1997 , taking into consideration the impacts of the current and future circumstances in the governorate. Besides , we analyse the death data to get the suitable level for these projections. After satisfying all the requirement of population projections , and using components method , the results are got and population of Basrah governorate from the year 1997 to 2022 is evaluated

مقارنة بعض الطرق الحصينة للمربعات الصغرى الجزئية == Compare Some of Robust Methods For Partial Least Squares

Author name: ميسون علي رحمن المندلاوي
Supervisor name: هلال عبود البياتي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: الحمد لله والصلاة والسلام على رسول الله سيدنا محمد (صلى الله عليه وسلم )وعلى اله وصحبه وسلم اما بعد...يتناول البحث استخدام انحدار المربعات الصغرى الجزئية PLS)) Partial Least Squares وهي تقنية انحدار خطي طورت للتعامل مع انحدارات ذات ابعاد عالية لمتغير وا | Partial least squares regression ( PLRS) is a linear regression technique developed to deal with high - dimensional regression and one or several response variables. In this paper we introduce robustified version of the SIMPLS algorithm being the leading PLRS algorithm because of its speed and efficiency. Because SIMPLS is based on the empirical cross - covariance matrix between the response variables and the regressors and on linear least squares regression, the results are affected by abnormal observations in the data set. Two robust methods covariance matrix for high - dimensional data and robust linear regression. We introduce robust RMSECV and RMSEP values for model calibration and model validation diagnostic plots are constructed to visualize and classify the outliers. Several simulation results and the analysis of real data sets show the effectiveness and the robustness of the approaches. Because RSIMPLS is roughly twice as fast as RSIMCD, it stands out as the overall best method.

بناء انموذج للمعاينة البيزية المفردة بافتراض مربع كاي كتوزيع مسبق == Constructing A Model For Bayesian Single Sampling Plan Assumed Chi - Squaar As A Prior Distribution

Author name: ميسون حميد فرج محمد
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتضمن هذا البحث بناء انموذج لخطط المعاينة البيزية باستخدام نظرية القرار، هدف الانموذج التوصل الى معالم خطة بيز المفردة (n,c) حيث n تمثل حجم العينة، c تمثل عدد القبول الضروريان لفحص المنتوج واتخاذ قرار لرفض او قبول الدفعة. قمنا باشتقاق ومناقشة خصائص نظام خ | This research deals with the process of Constructing a model for Bayesian Single Sampling Plan by using decision making theory. The aim of this Model is to obtain the parameters (n,c) which represent Sample size (n) and acceptance number c, which are necessary to inspect the lot and to make a decision whether to accept or reject the product. We drive and discussed the properties of the system of single sampling attributes plan obtained from minimizing the average Expected cost under the assumption that cost decision is a linear function in lot size and sample size. The distribution of the sampling is a mixed Poisson distribution i.e, each lot produced is in Poisson Control but the process average varies from lot of anther according to frequency distribution which is assumed to be derived in the neighbor points of the break - even quality level. We explain all the notation and steps of obtained the total Expected cost of quality Control, which contain the item of cost (Cl,C2...C6) upon the decision of acceptance or rejection, and then how to solved mathematically using forward Variances function to reach the Optimal Parameters (n*,c*). Then the Optimal size of the Sample size is identified is linear function from square root of the lot size. Some auxiliary tables are given, Which represent the results we obtained which indicate that the prior distribution of quality is Chi - Square with m degree of freedom, we apply NP - Chart to make decision about process, we apply also the test of goodness of fit for testing the hypothesis.

مقارنة بين طرائق تقدير المعولية في حالة الاجهاد والمتانة لانموذجي باريتو وويبل == A Comparison of Approach Estimation Reliability Incase of Stress - Strength For Pareto And Weibull Models

Author name: مي تحسين عبد الحليم العاني
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير المعولية في حالة الاجهاد والمتانة لبعض النماذج الاحصائية على فرض ان متغيري الاجهاد والمتانة العشوائيين مستقلان ولهما التوزيع نفسه. ولقد كانت نماذج الاجهاد والمتانة التي تم اخذها بنظر الاعتبار في هذا البحث هي الاتية : اولا : انموذج | In this dissertation, the reliability of the stress and strength has been estimated for some statistical distributions on the assumption that the variable of stress and strength are random and independent and have the same distribution, where is the stress and strength model have been taken under consideration in this research are as follow : 1 - Pareto stress - strength model.2 - Weibull stress - strength model.The methods of estimating the distribution parameters for each model were the maximum likelihood (ML) moment (MOM), least square (LS) and sharing age (Sh) depending on the availability of primary information about the parameters in order to be estimated.In this research a comparison was conducted among the methods mentioned above to estimate the reliability in case of stress and strength the models in order to reach to the best method to estimate the reliability by assigning Monte Carlo simulation approach depending on the two statistical measurement such as the mean square errors (MSE) and mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for comparison between the priority of estimators and various sample size (small, medium, large).The researcher which reached to best method is Maximum Likehood Method (ML) to estimate the reliability in case of Pareto stress strength model, and Shrinkag Method (Sh) to estimate the reliability in case of Weibull stress strength Model, that are presented in this dissertation

بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات دالة المعولية لنموذج احتمالي مركب مع تطبيق عملي == Some Methods of Estimation Parameter Reliability Function of The Probability Model Compound With Practical Application

Author name: مهدي علي عبد الحسين الدريعي
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد التوزيعات الاحتمالية المركبة من التوزيعات الاحصائية التي كسبت اهمية متميزة في العقود الاخيرة وذلك لتطبيقاتها الواسعة في المجالات الهندسية والصناعية والتجارب الطبية والبايلوجية وبناء على ذلك فقد تم استعمال انموذج احتمالي مركب (الاسي - ويبل) ذي الثلاث | The probability distributions compound is important statistical distributions which gained importance and wide in recent decades, to the importance of their use in scientific fields, and at the Advanced has been addressed in this letter to the probabilistic compound model (exponential - Weibull) with three parameters and characteristics enjoyed by such possibility Writing probability density function and cumulative function and reliability function was used four different methods of estimating 1 - Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method2 - Percentiles Estimators Method3 - Least squares method4 - Weighted least squares methodAnd a favorable comparison between these estimators using simulation style through several experiences of one of the main users of statistical standards which is the mean squer error It was reached that the best way to estimate the reliability function is the Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method for having the lowest mean squer error.Or in the practical side it has conducted a practical application to real data taken from the State Company for Textile Industries in Wasit, which is for times of failure for machines textile department and assess the sample sized 101 machines communtiy 450 machines function of reliability with the use destined reached by a researcher at the experimental side, a Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method, and through the results turned out to estimate reliability function decreases gradually increase the time.

نموذج للتخطيط القوى العاملة : دراسة ميدانية في كليتي الطب والادارة والاقتصاد - جامعة البصرة == A Model For Manpower Planning A Survey In Medical & Admin. & Econ. Colleges University of Basrah

Author name: منى طاهر غافل الربيعي
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: It is difficult to recruit the manpower of lecturers to provide the University of Basrah with them. University of Basrah suffers from the problem of putting a planning system for manpower which taking into consideration the following three systems (supply of the lecturers, demand of the lecturers, controlling of these two systems). In order to achieve that aim, the researcher performed this study "A Model for Manpower Planning" which depended upon a model to predict the size of manpower supply and demand for Lecturers in the Medical and Administration & Economics Colleges. These employees were separated into groups such as, the length of career period, or ages groups, to show the deficit or the surplus and the equilibrium between supply and demand. To carry out that model, it was used "Visual Basic 6" programme.(CD can be demanded from the researcher) This study could be considered an initial study in manpower planning among the structural systems of the manpower. It is a continual for the previous studies besides the following additions : 1. Find the expected supply of the manpower with expected demand for every rank of the hierarchy with freedom of choosing the number of the ranks to be no more than two or four.2. Calculate supply and demand of the manpower separated into groups such as the length of career period or ages groups. 3. Putting an equilibrium between supply and demand and putting conditions for promotion, recruitment and wastage.4. Representing the model in the computer by using (Visual Basic 6) language to construct easy model to be used to find the expected demand and supply for ever rank and showing the deficit or the surplus and the quantity of promotion, recruitment and wastage for every rank.

مقارنة طريقة Taguchi مع طريقة سطح الاستجابة للتجربة العاملية الجزئية باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparing Taguchi Method With Response Surface Method For The Fractional Factorial Experiment By Using of Simulation

Author name: منال جبريل محمود تيم
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | عبيد محمود محسن الزوبعي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تتلخص هذه الرسالة باعطاء فكرة مبسطه عن التجربة العامليه 2 n من حيث المعالجات والتاثيرات والنماذج والتصاميم الرياضية، ومن ثم دراسة تكوين التكرار الجزئي للتجربة 2n عندما يكون عدد العوامل مساويا الى ثلاثة عوامل وكل عامل بمستويين متضمنة توضيح طرق التحليل الا | The thesis provides simple idea for the 2n fractional experiment, it, treatments ,impacts, and mathematical models and methods, and studying the establishing of fractional frequency for 2n experiment when the number of factors are three with two levels each. and explaining the statistical analysis methods which are convenient for the two levels case for each factor in fractional factorial experiment ,and the same for 3n fractional factorial experiment when the number of factors are three with three levels each, then studying the robust design through Taguchi criterion design approach and Taguchi experiment method, and studying response surface, its, design of first and second grade, and applied it in selecting the levels and it’s values. The research depend mainly on using simulation method for Comparing Taguchi method with response surface design (first and second grade) by using (MSE)as measurement tool. The simulation experiments results approve that response surface always gives better results for (MSE) THAN Taguchi method.

مقارنة المقدرات اللا معلمية لتقدير دوال الكثافة الاحتمالية == Comparing Nonparametric Estimators For Probability Density Estimation

Author name: مناف يوسف حمود
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان المسالة المهمة والرئيسة في التطبيقات الاحصائية تتمثل بمعرفة التوزيع الخاص بالمجتمع المطلوب دراسته ومعرفة خصائص ذلك المجتمع كي يتم تمثيل المجتمع تمثيلا سليما من خلال استعمال الاساليب الاحصائية الشائعة.في بعض مسائل الاستدلال الاحصائي المدروسة يتم افتراض | In some problems of statistical inference considered, we assumed that the distribution of random variable being sampled is known except, perhaps for some parameters.In practice, however, the functional form of the distribution is seldom, if ever, known. It is therefore desirable to devise some procedures that are free of or depending on few information or assumption concerning distribution.In this dissertation we demonstrate and study some procedures that are commonly referred to as nonparametric or distribution - free and also semiparametric methods.The term “Distribution - free” refers to to the fact that no assumption are made about the underlying distribution except that the distribution function is absolutely continuous.The term “Nonparametric” refers to the fact that there are no parameters involved in the traditional sense of term parameter used thus far.The term “Semiparametric” refers to combine the parametric term with nonparametric term, which there is few information or assumption about the distribution function.In chapter one we demonstrate an introduction to the problem, the main of the study and the historical review.In chapter two we demonstrate several nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for probability density function and these estimators are “fixed kernel which use fixed bandwidth or smoothing parameter, variable kernel which use variable bandwidth for each observation, semiparametric estimator which combine between two estimators {parametric by using of MLE and nonparametric estimator by using of fixed kernel}”.Beside these estimators we suggest four estimators like semiparametric estimator but the first suggestion combine MLE & variable kernel, the second suggestion combine two nonparametric estimators, the third suggestion combine robust estimator (for the mean & variance) with fixed kernel estimator, Finally we suggest estimator that combine robust estimator with variable kernel.Beside to above we demonstrate several estimators for smoothing parameter or bandwidth one of these estimators suggested from the author.Then we make a comparison between the parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric estimators with respect to bandwidth estimators by using simulation experiments, depending on different distributions (Normal, Lognormal and bimodal), different sample sizes and variances.We find that the best estimator for the density function is the first semiparametric estimator when we are using the 1st & 2nd distributions (Normal & Lognormal) except in few cases where we find the 1st suggested estimator is the best. And when we are using the 3rd distribution (Bimodal) we find that, the 2nd suggested estimator (Nonparametric estimator) are the best except in few cases where the other suggested estimators beside to 1st semiparametric estimator are the best.Also we find that the (BCV) estimator is the best estimator for the smoothing parameter when we are using the 1st distribution (Normal), except in few cases where the OS estimator is the best for h.For the 2nd distribution (Lognormal) we find the (LSCV) estimator is the best estimator for the smoothing parameter.Finally, For the 3rd distribution (Bimodal), We find that the (BCV) estimator is the best estimator for h except when the sample size equal to 100 (n=100), where the (DPI) estimator is the best.

المقارنة بين طرائق تقدير النموذج الرياضي لسلسلة الحمض النووي DNA مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison Among Mathematical’s Model Estimator Methods For Sequences Nucleic Acid DNA With Application

Author name: مظهر خالد عبد الحميد الجبوري
Supervisor name: فاتن فاروق صالح البدري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الهدف من هذا البحث هو تحديد افضل نموذج رياضي احتمالي لسلاسل الحمض النووي الـ(DNA)، لغرض ايجاد (تقدير) تكرارات الجين لعينة سكانية تم استعمال ثلاث طرائق هي : الامكان الاعظم (Maximum Likelihood Method)، وطريقة العد (A count Method)، وطريقة برنشتاين (Berni | Aim of a research is to limit a better Mathematical model for Nucleic Acid (DNA) of evaluation of gene repetitions, for population sample then using of three methods of maximum likelihood and a count method, and Bernstien method.Evaluation of repetition considers so important to know how to distribute phenotype and genotype in order to know a distribution of phenotypes that show an effect of vary differences at this distribution to limit distribution function of these styles. Although dynamic programming principle is one of modern ones in condign of genetic sequences, thus the principle of condign ? - Globine sequence in human blood, so ? - Globine in Rats’ blood and mice blood. What are mentioned aims to compare between them by using genetic Algorithms and Global Alignment and local alignment to know a similarity and difference between these sequence which considers a good advance of analysing of coding and mutation, printing hold and visual Basic in order to write a special program with Algorithm of a global alignment to a chive this research.

الخصوبة السكانية في العراق تطورها والعوامل المؤثرة عليها واثرها في تحديد حجم السكان مستقبلا == Population Fertility In Iraq, Its Improvement And Effect Factors Upon And Its Influence In Specified Size of Population In Future

Author name: مصطفى حبيب مهدي
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The fertility represents most important variables in the population growth and determine the level of this growth and trends in Iraq is the countries with high rates of fertility compared to many countries of the world and the importance of this variable in the population growth and the fact that this variable influenced by demographic, social, economic and growth trends of these families and their development in society. The different methods to fertility measurements (direct and indirect ) in order to arrive actual fertility which matches with fact of Iraq based on data Censuses 1987 and 1997 and then an analysis or factors affecting them, which include as following : average of ages , and mortality and infant children , and the differences urban and rural education contribution of women in the workforce and uses contraceptives , religion wars that affect fertility behavior and reflected on the planning and development using style multiple regression adoption ready program ( SPSS ) , and was also study the effect of fertility in determining the size of population in the future adoption of the 1997 as base which exposes hypotheses which concerning with projections of (fertility, mortality and migration) and the results of these abortions during the period of 2022/1997 using ready program (spectrum) to build a database large dependent population for many purposes, such as planning, development and future population policy.The research divided into five chapters include first submitted and the aim of the research and previous studies and the second the theoretical side and the third (practical aspect) and fourth (population projections) and included Chapter fifth presents conclusions and recommendations that have been reached and the most important recommendations seen by the researcher ,are necessary

طرائق لتقدير معالم نماذج عمليات ليفي وتوظيفها في اسعار عوائد اسهم مصرفي الشمال والمتحد == Methods of Estimating Model Parameters Le'Vy Processes And Emoloyment In Returns Stock Prices North Bank And United

Author name: مريم جمعة موسى
Supervisor name: مناف يوسف حمود
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد سوق الاوراق المالية الهدف المنشود للمستثمرين الذين يرغبون في التخصيص الكفء للموارد المالية المتاحة لديهم الامر الذي يتطلب توفر قدر من البيانات والمعلومات المالية الصحيحة المتعلقة بالشركات التي تتداول ادواتها في السوق حتى يتمكن هؤلاء من ترشيد قراراتهم | The stock Exchange is the target for investors who are interested in the efficient allocation of financial resources available to them , which would require a lot of data on companies that are trading their tools on the market so they can rationalize their decisions and make profits unusal in light of market efficient proper financial in formation.However because there are fluctuations in returns stock prices resulting from low and high stock returns prices at the Iraq stock Exchange solve this problem by using stochastic processes models,One of the models le'vy. Relying on the so - called Brownian subordinate as it has been relying on the so - called Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG).the research aims as the estimate that the parameters of his model using two methods (MME,MLE) and then employ those estimate of the parameters in the study of stock returns and evaluate asset pricing for both the united Bank and Bank of North which their data were taken from the Iraq stock Exchange. As well as the use of simulation method for the purpose of simulating the practical side with a different presumed cases.Has been reached the practical side, which showed the results to a preference MLE on MME based on the standard of comparison the average square error (MSE).As for the side of the simulation it has shown favorable results also MLE on MME. As well as the simulation results indicated that the increase in the value of kurtosis and decreasing the value of skewnsses in NIG model it may cause a decrease in large volatility especially when increasing valumes of samples while side applied found that the yield rate of the stock of the Bank United is higher than the rate of returns for the North Bank as well asthe United owning less coefficient c.v compared with the North Bank and both estimater (MME,MLE).therefore the United Bank is the best investment of the Northa Bank in addition , the North Bank was less efficient than the United Bank for, leading this speech to preference of investors to invest with united Bank and its superiority on the North Bank.

مقارنة بعض خوارزميات التحليل العنقودي في تنقيب البيانات (Data Mining) مع واقع تطبيقي == A Comparing To Some of The Algorithms Cluster Analysis In Data Mining With Application

Author name: محي الدين خلف ايوب
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان التقدم العلمي المتسارع والانتشار الواسع للمعلوماتية ادى الى الاستعمال الالكتروني لمختلف المعلومات والتي اصبحت تتراكم بشكل هائل في قواعد بيانات كبيرة, وهنا تكمن اهمية البحث في محاولة تنضيج وتبويب هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات في قواعد معلومات تؤدي الغرض ا | Scientific progress is rapid and widespread Informatics web mail to various information which became accumulate dramatically, leading to try to find how tend to tab and this huge amount of data bases for information leading to the desired purpose. Work the term data mining (DM) is appropriate in this area and because of this importance of this research was to try to use data mining algorithms with the search in the accompanying circumstances. And a summary of research supports access to information and knowledge discovery through the use of techniques for data mining (DM) and also touched on the stages of exploration process of data passing through the stage of data processing and even the testing phase (F_test) to measure the case of variation or variation in the data when you reach a level of fitness (Optional). The results of the tests can be observed when changing the sample size (n) as well as the size of clusters (k) , and this leads to variation in the laboratory value (F) and in each case and her envelope. Cluster analysis of the data has spawned tests , The algorithm (K - Means) is the best , Comparing with (Single Linkage) and (Complete Linkage) algorithms A position to achieve the research hypotheses under the values shown in the tables , through calculable scale test (F_test) as well as the scale (MSE) , according to the results of experiments testing of samples sizes (n) and the size of the clusters (k) applied to the variables (v) Search.

استعمال البرمجة الديناميكية العشوائية في تخطيط الانتاج مع تطبيق في شركة مصافي الوسط == Using Random Dynamic Programming In Production Planning With Application In The Midland Refineries Company

Author name: محمد كاظم هواش
Supervisor name: خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتضمن البحث بناء انموذج برمجة خطية,ويحل بواسطة البرمجة الديناميكية لايجاد قيم متغيرات القرار وقيمة دالة الهدف.وقد تم بناء الانموذج باستخدام بيانات ثلاثة مصافي في شركة مصافي الوسط وهي (مصفى الدورة ,مصفى السماوة ,ومصفى النجف),وباعتبار ان كميات الطلب على كل | This research deals with Building A probabilistic Linear programming model representing ,the operation of production in the Middle Refinery Company (Dura , Semawa , Najaif ) Considering the demand of product (Gasoline , Kerosene ,Gas Oil , Fuel Oil ).are random variables ,follows certain probability distribution , which are testing using Statistical programme (Easy fit), thes distribution are found to be Cauchy distribution ,Erlang distribution ,Pareto distribution ,Normal distribution ,and General Extreme value distribution. The Built programme is transformed in to deterministic one and then solved by using Dynamic Programming ( Backward procedure ) To find the Optimal values of Descion variables and Optimal value of Objective Function. All the results are explained in tables, we work on using Dynamic programming according to the Rule of Richard Bellman for Optimality ,which depend on sub divide the Big problem ,in to sub problem ther is an Optimal Solutions ,then thes Solutions are Optimize to reach the final Optimal Solution, The Show all results included a private thesis in a special tables

بناء نموذج رياضي خطي لشبكة توزيع المنتجات النفطية في العراق == Establishing A Mathematical Model of Integrated Industrial System

Author name: محمد سعد ابراهيم
Supervisor name: فاتن فاروق صالح البدري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان عملية صنع القرار عند وجود معايير متعددة تعد من المواضيع المهمة والسائدة في مجال بحوث العمليات والاقتصاد والهندسة والادارة وفي كثير من المجالات الاخرى اذ تتميز فكرة المعايير المتعددة بدلا من الاحادية بانها ”الامثل“ وهي ايضا تمثل مفهوما بديلا عن الام | Multiple Criteria Decision Making is one of the important and dominate subjects in the field of operations research, economics, engineering and management and in many different fields where the notion of multiple criteria rather than single criteria is characterized as the “optimal” and it also represents an alternative concept of traditional optimality because of due to the importance of this subject the goal of this study was to Establishing A Mathematical Model of Integrated Industrial System through the use of Multiple Criteria Decision Making approaches where the real problems is often constrained and needs a formula to find an optimal solution which depends on trade - offs for the evaluation of the best criteria and since the trade - offs are not existent among the single criteria this study basically depended on the multiple criteria concept which included eight concepts of optimality, fuzzy multi objective optimality, multi objective optimality with fuzzy constraints, solving non - fuzzy multi objective optimality, fuzzy goal and fuzzy constraint programming, tow phase approach for solving problem and goal programming with achievement functions. Because of the importance of white oil products (Benzene, Gas oil, Kerosene) in every day life and the continuous and increasing demand for it a mathematical model for system of the distribution of oil products network has been built to achievement two goals first is to minimize the cost transportation oil products through pipelines dedicated for transportation these products and second to minimize the shortage in the refineries to the maximum rate to respond the demand of oil products of all the governorates of the country where these objectives are subject to the constraints related to the amounts of demand for each governorates products energies of refineries, transportation energies, designable pipes energies and implicit constraints and this model was solved by using the ready made program (WinQSB - 98) respective of operations research models

مقارنة بين مقدرات التقلص البيزية ومقدرات التقلص لتباين التوزيع الطبيعي باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison Between Bayesian Shrinkage Estimators And Shrinkage Estimators For The Variance of Normal Distribution By Using Simulation

Author name: محمد حسين عبد الحميد جواد البيرماني
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الدراسة تم تقديم مقترح لتقدير التباين للتوزيع الطبيعي وذلك من خلال استخدام التقدير البيزي للتباين والمعتمد على دالة التوزيع الاولي للمعلمة الممثلة للتباين في موقع التقدير الاولي ضمن صيغة التقدير المقلص بمرحلتين والتي تم تسميتها مقارنة بين مقدرات ال | In this study we introduce new suggest to estimate the variance of normal distribution, from by using Bayesian estimation for the variance that is dependent on prior distribution to parameter of the variance in first estimate location, include double stage shrunken estimate formally, that it called by comparison between Bayesian shrinkage estimators and shrinkage estimators for the variance of normal distribution by using simulation on topic study.The estimations are depended on two factors of shrunken, the first is random value and the second is function for the first sample size.In the simulation, we study double stage shrunken Bayesian estimators for the variance of normal distribution when the distribution mean is known.

تحليل الموجة الصغيرة Wavelet لتقدير منحنى الانحدار اللا معلمي == Wavelet Analysis For Estimating Nonparametric Regression Curve

Author name: محمد حبيب كاظم الشاروط
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | نوري فرحان المياحي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد توسعت امكانيات طرائق تقدير الدوال اللامعلمية توسعا هائلا في السنوات الاخيرة من خلال المساحة الواسعة من الادوات الحديثة في التحليل الاحصائي، وقد لوحظ تقدم كبير وملموس في مجال البحوث النظرية والتطبيقية للموجة الصغيرة في الاحصاء مثل بحوث الموجة الصغير

التقدير المتسق لمعلمة ميل انموذج الانحدار الخطي البسيط المتاثر بخطا القياس للمتغير التوضيحي مع تطبيق في المجال الصحي

Author name: ماهر محسن سلمان
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد طريقة المربعات الصغرى الاعتيادية (OLS) من افضل طرائق تقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي وان هذه الطريقة تتصف مقدراتها بصفتي عدم التحيز والاتساق وهذه من صفات المقدر الجيد , الا ان مقدر طريقة المربعات الصغرى يصبح متحيز وغير متسق اذا كان المتغير ال | Ordinary Lease Square (OLS) is the way of the best methods of Parameter estimating of Linear Regression Model , that’s where this method is characterized by unbiased and consistency , and these qualities of good estimator , but (OLS) estimator becomes biased and inconsistent if Explanatory variable contains measurement errors , and the study has been of two consistent estimators, were taking into consideration the presence of measurement errors and they are : reliability ratio method and this way corrects the biasing in (OLS) estimator and makes the estimator consistent , and the other way is : instrumental variable method ; and this way gives consistent estimator and contributes to support the explanatory variable through the addition of an external variable T ,and the instrumental variable must be correlate in a strong relationship with explanatory variable ,also has been showed the additional information's necessary to the alternative estimator to the (OLS). above methods have been applied by using of simulation style of the software MatLab as measurement of errors takes three distributions and they are : normal distribution , standard normal distribution and Uniform distribution by using three sizes of samples (100 , 50 , 20 ) the result showed that reliability ratio estimator method is the best estimator ; regardless of the size of the sample and the distribution of the errors measurement , and this finding corresponds to the findings of researchers , and on this basis has been applied Reliability ratio estimator method on the medical data obtained from patients have fallen asleep in the department of artificial kidney in (Yarmouk) hospital in Baghdad. that's where the level of Urea in the blood is dependent variable , two readings of blood pressure were taking for each patient ,which represent the average is instrumental variable , the purpose of taking blood pressure for each patient in order to estimate the variance of measurement errors ,also has been taken third blood pressure reading by using dialysis machine to represent instrumental variable , has been reached that the ratio of reliability for blood pressure measuring ranging between ( 0.80 - 0.85 (

دراسة مقارنة لطرق التقدير الحصينة لدالة البقاء مع تطبيق عملي على مرضى سرطان الدم في اليمن == A Comparative Study of The Robust Estimation Methods of Survival Function With Practical Application On Blood Cancer Patients In Yemen

Author name: ماجد هبة الله علي شريم
Supervisor name: هلال عبود البياتي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان معظم البحوث في موضوع المعولية اودالة البقاء يوجد عليها بعض الماخذ في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عالي من الكفاءة. وتبرز اهمية الحاجة الى طرائق التقدير الكفوءة هذه التي تسمى بالطرائق الحصينة (Robust Methods) | Most of researches in the subject of reliability contain clear decrease in the processes of accurate statistical analysis which aims at getting estimators of a high level of efficiency and the important of the necessity to many efficient estimation methods, which are called robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated , it means the observations contains outliers which may produce estimators which result in increasing (decreasing) in the (MSE).A matter which leads to unconfirmed statistical inference.From this point was the goal behind this research in reaching robust estimators of the survival function through studying some robust and classical methods and bayes methods in contaminated weibull distribution , and that is by assuming three levels of contamination. namely,(? = 0 , 0.15 ,0.30 ).Also , a robust method proposed to estimate the survival function for contaminated weibull distribution.In this study , the method of simulation was used to compare between the studied estimation methods of all levels of contamination.In this thesis , the researcher concluded the success of the proposed method in estimating the survival function in comparison with other methods depending on the measures : (IMSE) and (IMAPE) so, the researcher specified a chapter for applying and using the proposed method on real data to estimate the survival function s(t).

استعمال اساليب التنبؤ الاحصائية في تحليل قيم الصادرات النفطية == Using Statistical Forecasting Methods In Analyzing Oil Exports Values

Author name: لينا نضال شوكت
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: درست الباحثة موضوع اقيام الصادرات النفطية العراقية السنوية وللمدة من 1978م ولغاية 2014م بالاعتماد على ثلاث طرائق تحليل احصائية. الاولى، تحليل انموذج الانحدار الخطي المتعدد والتي تتطلب تحديد متغيرات توضيحية مؤثرة في قيم الصادرات النفطية وكانت هذه المتغيرا | The researcher studied the Iraqi Oil Exports Value form 1978 until 2014 using three statistical analysis methods. The first, Analysis of Multiple Linear Regression which requires determining independent variables that affect the Oil Exports Value and these variables were (barrel price and the average daily number of exported barrels). The second, Analysis of Polynomial Models (Growth Curve Model) and this model requires determining the suitable polynomial degree to represent the model as a curve which shows the increase or decrease that occurs in the data under study. And the third method is, Analysis of Time Series using Box - Jenkins models which requires identification of the suitable model and the degree of the model to represent the data. The three models, their equations and the mathematical relationships have been all defined, especially the ones that have been applied on the data.After analyzing the data using gretl and Matlab softwares and treating some problems that may occur to the data and getting the suitable models to represent the Oil Exports Value, in the Multiple Regression Model the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters have been calculated and testing the efficiency of the model and the estimated parameters using F and t tests. And in the Polynomial model, the curve has been estimated and drawn and calculating the confidence intervals of the parameters and the fitted curve and forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting. In the Time Series model, the stationarity in the mean and variance of the series has been tested then identifying the suitable order for the model which was (2,1,3) and testing the independence of the error then forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting

التحليل الجيبي المتقطع والمويجي المتقطع واستخدامهما في عمليات الاخفاء للصوت والصورة == Discrete Cosine Transform & Discrete Wavelet Transform In The Hiding Process For The Speech And The Image

Author name: ليلى مطر ناصر المحنة
Supervisor name: خميس عواد زيدان
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: للاهمية المتزايدة للتحويلات الرياضية ومدى مساهمتها في حل العديد من المشاكل العلمية، وكذلك موضوع الاخفاء steganography، الذي اخذ مفهومة يتطور واستخدامه يتزايد يوما بعد يوم لما له من اهمية كبيرة في توفير الحصانة والسرية للبيانات الرقمية لاي وسط كانت وكذلك | Because of the increasing of importance of the Mathematical transformation and its solutions for the scientific problems, and also. The steganography which it is develop ,more and more, with its expanding in performing security and Robustness for the digital data for any media and for decreasing the capacity of the Storage and increasing the speed in transmitting and receiving, we use in this thesis the discrete cosine transform and the discrete wavelet transform as a comparative study through the hiding methods, which its applied in the time domain and frequency domain, and applied the statistical term MSE which is always used for comparative, and added another term MAPE as a support term and then calculate the PSNR to measure the quality for the images and sounds after reconstruction depending on the two terms, the colored image are applied because of its high specifications for its large area in the storage through hiding processes, which its depend on the (LSB) method of hiding. And in this thesis it is proposed a methods for designing new coefficients depending on the filters Haar and DB - 4, and the design depended on a mathematical and logical methods, and as an application for the comparative and proposed methods it depended on a sample of (24) persons which we took their images and speeches to apply the Process by hiding the speech through the image for every person, and then applied the transformations depending on the proposed Algorithms, the program is designed by the researcher using Matlab language, and then the comparative applied between the used methods which showed high quality in reconstruction and performed a proposed methods in the security depending on the mathematical transform and not only on the methods of cyphering for data through hiding and this methods for cyphering the mathematical transform give a high robustness for hiding data.

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير دالة المعولية الضبابية == Compared To Some of The Methods of Estimating Fuzzy Reliability Function

Author name: ليث فاضل سيد حسين النعيمي
Supervisor name: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: عند احتساب اوقات الفشل للمكائن والمعدات نلاحظ بانها تكون غير مؤكدة او ضبابية في اغلب الاحيان وعلى اساس المركبة او النظام لهذا تناولت هذه الرسالة تقدير دالة المعولية الضبابية في حالة المركبة والانظمة المفردة (المتسلسلة والمتوازية) وباستعمال ثلاث طرائق هي : | When calculating the failure times of the machines and equipment note that it is fuzzy or uncertain in more often on the basis of the component or system to this paper this estimate fuzzy reliability function in the component case and series and parallel system by using three methods are : First, the conventional method : Under this method has been used the failure function and a new membership function of beta type be more flexible in statistical applications, according to this method was derived estimators fuzzy reliability function for series and parallel systems. Second, The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) based on the confidence limits : one of the methods in which based on in estimation on the mean and standard deviation of the times of the failure of the machinery and equipment and give fuzzy reliability function estimate both serial and parallel systems confidence limits are to be used to fuzzy numbers two levels (1 - ?, 1 - ?).Third, the Signed distance method : good methods that give estimating fuzzy reliability function for both systems are similar to estimate the point.That the methods above give estimate reliability Blur function for both systems was a comparison between the advantage of these capabilities and employ the style of simulation manner Monte Carlo (Monte - Carlo) by writing software language application (Matlab) and the experiences and sizes of different samples and both systems were relying on mean square error (MSE) of the comparison between the estimation methods Vtm reach a predestined way normal preference, showing through the mean square error (MSE) that showed a nuance in between estimator ways : how many The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) and the way the Signed distance method of the fact that the way The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) based at its sole discretion to Tabulated values of the distribution (t) and that way the distance indicator based on the indicators way above, for this from the perspective of the researcher, all estimation methods are considered good and can be used in the approved equipment and machinery in their production productive companies.In the practical side researcher has used real data for the purpose of estimating reliability function of the system and fuzzy sequential function reliability of the system parallel Blur, adopted by the General Company for Electrical Industries of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals in Baghdad records.

الدمج بين الطرائق الاعتيادية والغلاف الطيفي بالتحويلات للاستقرارية باعتماد القطع والنافذة المثلى

Author name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد استخدام الغلاف الطيفي لتحويل السلاسل غير المستقرة الى سلاسل مستقرة من الطرائق الحديثة اذ اقترحها الباحث Stoffer واخرون خلال العقد الاخير من القرن الماضي. والطريقة المستخدمة سابقا تعتمد التحويل الذي يعطي اقل البواقي. ولتلافي السلبيات التي تكتنف الطري | The use of the Spectral Envelope to transform non - stationary series to stationary series is considered as recent method. It is suggested by Stoffer ~ at el. through the last ten years of the past century. The method previously used depends on the transformation, which gives minimum residual. And to overcome the disadvantages that surround these two methods we saw that the best is to combine between them. Since the spectral density function of the transformed series needs to be smoothed, so we began to study the best smoothing window and to know the optimum truncation point by using two criteria, absolute and relative, for compression between the two the windows and the truncation points

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط من الرتبة الاولى باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison Some Parameters Estimation Methods For Mixed Model of Low Order Using Simulation

Author name: لمياء محمد علي البدراني
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى دراسة طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط (الانحدار الذاتي - الوسط المتحرك) (Stationary Autoregressive - Moving Average Model) المستقر من الرتبة الاولى ARMA(1,1) مع دراسة الحالات الخاصة له، وهي : ARMA(1,0), ARMA(0,1) دراسة نظرية وتجريبية با | This thesis aims to studying the parameters estimation methods of the stationary mixed model (autoregressive - moving average) of low order ARMA(1,1) with the special cases of it which are : ARMA(1,0) and ARMA(0,1) in regard to time domain analysis in univariate time series.Using Exact maximum likelihood estimation methods (EML) and the approximating methods : backforecasting (BF) and Conditional least square (CLS) beside Moment method (M.M) with suggested conditional method (SC) and alternative method for moment method of ARMA(0,1) model. Driven some estimators for some special model.A comparison is done among the different methods by using criteria : mean square error (MSE) , mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and average absolute error (AAE) and using several simulation experiments ,and iterating each experiments(1000) times, The results it found that the (EML) is better and more efficient than others. From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign and moment estimator for ARMA(1,1) model that is : when the sign is positive means the root gives invertable model and when the sign is negative means the root gives invertable model. The thesis consisted of four chapters, The first chapter contained introduction and literature review. The second chapter discussed the deferent estimation methods, The third chapter contained the experimental part using simulation for different sample sizes of series. It had been arrived at some conclusions and recommendations were consisting the fourth chapter

تحليل التباين المركب لمجموعة تجارب متشابهة في القطاع الزراعي == Combind Analysis of Variance For Similar Experiments Group In The Agricultural Sector

Author name: كاظم يحيى عبد الحسين
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: the interaction (treatments X locations , treatments X years , 1. In the statistical sight, the aim is to test the significance of of this method of analysis is : in more than one location and in more than one year too. The aimreplicated in more than one location or period (year) or replicated sector. It means making analysis of variance for experiments that important in different sides of the life, specially in the agricultural The combined analysis of variance method is regarded as a verytreatments X locations X years ). plot experiment that conducted by (CRD , LSD) expanding by the researcher the case of (CRD , LSD) and Split - (RCBD , and Split - plot by RCBD), The study also include The combined analysis of variance was studied for the designsmost suitable environment conditions. true decision that represented by planting the type in the (included locations and agricultural seasons) , then making a many types of a pointed plant for environment conditions2. In agricultural sight , the aim is to test the suitability of experiment increase. that appeared as the value of decrease, the accuracy of the ,one for LSD and the other for Split - plot using LSD. The results using simulation manner and writing two programs for this aimconducted by LSD and by Split - plot using LSD , that led to Because of there is no available data for actually experiments appeared the significant effects.means of the factors and for the means of the interactions that them, the multiple comparisons were done (using Lsd) for the for the significance of the factors and for the interactions between A different results were appeared from experiment to anotherwas done by using Genstat program. homogeneity of variances using statgraph program, the analysis conducted by RCBD, and then after making Bartlett test for conducted by RCBD and another experiments by Split - plot In applications we have got the data of actually experiments

استعمال السلاسل الزمنية والشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية للتنبؤات المستقبلية لمستوى التضخم في العراق == The Use of Time Series And Neural Network Prediction Futurism Level Swelling In Iraq

Author name: قصي عصام حميد الزبيدي
Supervisor name: قاسم محمد علي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد شهد الاقتصاد العراقي ارتفاعات مستمرة ومتزايدة في معدلات التضخم والتي وصلت الى مستوى التضخم الجامح مما اثرت على نمط الانتاج والاستثمار والاستهلاك والادخار ونمط تخصيص الموارد وتوزيع الدخل، نتيجة للظروف القاسية التي مر بها العراق وقد استعملت وسائل احصائ | It is known that the most important countries of evolution is the process of planning and the detailed plans the future and this requires the adoption of advanced statistical methods.We discussed this adopts the first focus method of time series Box - Jenkins and which takes into account the temporal variations in the study of phenomena, analyze and identify the most important properties in the construction of appropriate models of the phenomenon being studied, as has been the adoption of key stages in building models of chains of time from diagnosis until the development of the form timely and predictable phenomenon studied.Second, neural networks and included the study of this simplified the basic concepts of neural networks He addressed the most important types of neural networks is a network deployment rear (Back Propagation) algorithms and their own learning.The practical side has been the use of real data to calculate the rate of inflation based on the indices for commodity groups for a period of five years by months(2007 - 2011) Based on the results of time series Box - Jenkins and neural networks shows that the method of artificial neural networks more flexible and higher efficiency in the analysis and forecasting

الاثار الاجتماعية والاقتصادية للفقر في العراق : دراسة مقارنة == The Social And Economic Impacts of Poverty In Iraq A Contrastive Study

Author name: قصي عبد الفتاح رؤوف
Supervisor name: مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر دراسة الفقر وتحليل مؤشراته ومحدداته، من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية.لذلك اختار الباحث هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة في العراق الذي نفذ خلال الس | The present study deals with the most important issue which is of critical significance in Iraq - poverty - and its analysis, indications and determines since it tries to achieve the social and economic growth and development in a realistic way. The researcher selects this subject by depending on the social and economic data survey of the household in Iraq which is carried out in 2007 by the central organization of statistics and its subsequent building poverty line based on these data by using (spss) to arrive at the social and economic variables of direct impact on the poverty level. The indications of poverty in Iraq show that the poverty rate comes to 23% and this rate is centered in the rural increasingly than the urban since the poverty rate comes 39% and 16% respectively these indications also show that the size of poor household comes to 9.5 person and for other households 6.3 persons. The illiteracy ratio comes to (25 - 15) years among the poor - 27.1 %. The ratio of those primary school leavers or school - Not Joiners comes to 25 - 2% while other than poor households comes to 11 - 6% As for intermediate school poor - Joiners, the ratio comes to 79.5 % - the results show that 24% of those poor drink undrinkable water. The unemployment ratio for those adults whose age ranging from 15 and more 15% The Results also show that the Average of individuals, monthly Salary for those poor comes to 87 thousand Iraqi dinar while other's Salaries come to 149 thousand Iraqi dinars. The major differences between the a group of poor people and a group of Non - Poor people on the one hand, and on the other hand the main differences between poor people and non - poor people in cities and country sides for more than 20 variables by (T Test). The researcher comes to the fact that there are nine variable of different meaning - which are as follows : the Average of Household size, the ratio illiteracy, the ratio of non - advantage of health care during the period of pregnancy, the ratio of bachelorhood, the ratio of non - having drinkable water, the Average of individual's monthly salary, the Average of individual's monthly expenditure, the ratio of unemployment, Loans ratio to meet the needs of consuming families. The researcher uses the factor analysis to analyze the relationship among the nine Variables to come to the main factors that affect the level of poverty. The researcher also uses the cluster analysis and transferring the nine Variable data into the standard formula to eliminate the difference of measuring units of these Variables and consequently ensuring the Validity of carrying out the process of classifying the data and determining the relationship among factors in terms of similarity and differences and then going in to the clustering method and analyzation together with the way of comparison by means of Box plot which shows the symmetry of data inside the Variable

التحليل الاحصائي لفقر الاطفال وفقا لبيانات المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة لسنة 2012م == The Statistical Analysis of Child Poverty According To The Socio - Economic Survey of The Family For The Year 2012

Author name: قاسم محمد صاحب
Supervisor name: ضياء عواد كاظم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر دراسة واقع الطفولة في العراق من القضايا المهمة نظرا لاهمية هذه الفئة في المجتمع , كونهم يعدون البذار الاول للمجتمع ومن خلالهم يحدد المسار الذي يتوجه اليه. تهتم الدراسة في اعطاء صورة واضحة عن واقع فقر الاطفال في العراق , من خلال ما يعانية الاطفال | Study reality of childhood in Iraq , one of the important issues of the importance of this category in the community , as they are consider the first seed to the community and through them determines the path that goes him. The study is interested in giving a clear picture of the of the reality of child poverty in Iraq , through the suffering of the child cases of deprivation of needs and basic services is saturated by appling Bristol indicators of severe deprivation for children in the calculation of depdeprivations suffred by the children and the severe poverty of children , and classification of children in accordance with the integrated sample poverty and socioeconomic survey of the family for the year 2012 scale , amounting to (25488) families wich included (87118) children , wich were obtained from the ministry of planning / central statistical , which included all the governorates. used in statistical data analysis software (stata version 12 , spss version 21) , as well as use of factor analysis as a way in multivariate statistical analysis of the data to find the most important factors affecting the phenomenon of the child poverty The researcher found through this study that (18.8%) of all children suffered from severe child poverty in 2012 , and the governorate of thi - qar top Iraqi governorates in the proportion of child poverty. It was also classified the children of Iraq in accordance with the integrated poverty measure , as shown through which (8.3%) of the total children suffered chronic poverty (they have suffered poverty according to the style of poverty and style UBN line ) , and (14.5%) suffered a newly poverty ( the have suffered poverty according to the style of the poverty line only ) , (10.2%) is the ratio of children who have suffered structural poverty (they suffered poverty according to the style of UBN only), the children who were classified according to the non - poor poverty measurement method was accounted for (66.9%) of the total children. By using factor analysis to find the most important factors affecting the phenomenon of Child poverty, it shows that there are five factors that control the fifteen variables on the level of Iraq and also on the urban level, either in terms of the rurel were six factors, The variable (severe deprivation of education) the greatest impact in the formation of the first factor on the level of Iraq, either at the urban level was variable (monetary poverty for the family) the greatest impact in the formation of the first factor, as was the rurel to the variable (severe deprivation of information) has the greatest impactin The first factor formation

توظيف نهج سطوح الاستجابات المتعددة المرتبطة في تصميم المعلمة الحصين مع تطبيقات عملية

Author name: فرح عصام حسن
Supervisor name: ابتسام مصطفى كمال
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: هذه الاطروحة كانت محاولة لايجاد اساليب كفوءة يتم فيها معالجة حالة الاستجابات المتعددة المرتبطة في تصميم المعلمة الحصين، بتعميم نهج سطوح الاستجابة وتوظيفه في خمسة اساليب مقترحة اخرى، في كل منها تم الاعتماد على دالة هدف مختلفة تعالج حالة معينة، والدوال المو | The purpose of this study was to find efficient techniques that extend the application of response surface methodology to the multiple robust parameter design, for cases in which multiple responses are correlated. The study recommends the use of five techniques, in each one a different function was employed. These functions are : 1. Squared loss function2. Principal component function3. Canonical correlation function4. Multiple correlation function5. Partial correlation function In the five suggested techniques the model of Quesada & Casteillo which is a generalization of Vining and Myres model for the one response case, was considered. The model was assumed to follow the assumptions of the seemingly unrelated regression equations system. And Zenller’s two stage technique was employed to estimate its parameters. The five suggested techniques were employed in five different experiments for different fields. Then the results were compared with the results of Quesada & Casteillo approach for multiple robust parameter design. The comparison was based on criteria of the average mean square error, which was the lowest at the most optimal solutions produced from the suggested techniques and for the following applications : 1. Optimization and robustness of the High - performance Liquid Chromatography. 2. Optimization and robustness of the carry and release function of a coated drug.3. Optimization and robustness of the computers network efficiency.4. Improvement and robustness of the quality of coffee treated by a new technique.5. Optimization and robustness of the function of a printing machine in adding colored inks.

مقارنة طرائق تقدير معالم انموذج ويبل للفشل بثلاثة معالم == Comparing Estimation Methods of Weibull Failure Models With Three Parameters

Author name: فراس صدام عبد الهلالي
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد كان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية، يعود الى التطور التكنولوجي والتقني السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات.وعلى هذا الاساس فان دراسة موضوع المعولية والربط بين الجانبين النظري والتطبيقي امر له اهمية كبيرة، | The rapid and wide significance of the theoretical and practical aspects of reliability is due to the technical and technological advance in using the various intricate electronic systems. In this regard, it is important to study the theoretical and practical sides of reliability and their interrelationship since it is an indication to the proficiency and capability of the system component without deficiencies for a long time. This will lead us to evaluate the operation of the system component for improving and increasing the quantity and quality of these systems in addition to its role in the development of the engineering system.The wiebull distribution is used, as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rates somewhat high in starting operation. These rates will be decreased with increasing time. Thus, the study deals with the comparison between estimating parameter and reliability function of the three parameters Weibull Distribution as a model for failure. Different Approaches have been used to carry out the research these include : 1. Classical approachesa. Maximum likelihood method. b. Moment method.2. Baysian approachesa. Bayes method.b. Shrinkage method.Comparison was made between the methods of estimation by employing simulation using Monte - Carlo method using the statistical measures (MSE) and (MAPE) to identify the priority of these estimators for different sample sizes. The study is divided into four chapters, Chapter one deals with the theoretical Background of the topic, including the concepts of reliability. Chapter two is a review of the different estimation methods and aspect s of reliability. Chapter three is devoted the practical side of this research and results analysis. Chapter four reveals the conclusions, findings and the recommendations of the study

بعض طرائق التشخيص والتقدير في الانحدار الذاتي الخطي وغير الخطي ذي الرتب الدنيا == Some Method of Identification And Estimation For Linear And Nonlinear Autoregressive Models With Lower Order

Author name: ﻓﺭﺍﺱ ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻨﺎ
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Time Series Analysis face Two important Problems, take Part in the base of Statistical Work, Which are : Identification and Estimation Problems Specially in Stationary limits. Thus, the identification Process Was based in most of the researches on the Linear Models, Where had used many Methods, Some of them by graphics, and some Other by identification's Criterion's for instance : AIC and BIC Criterions and Others. On the Other hand, the estimation Process stands also on the parametric Methods only, for many years ago. But, the Complexity and improvement of the Phenomena's, and the Progress made in Computers, In both hardware and Software, and the Progress happened in the Numerical Analysis, Courage's the researchers to make their Papers and articles in advanced topics deal with Problems Which could face the identification and Estimation, either the difficulty of large sample size , or by the nonlinear Patterns which could suit some models from others. Furthermore, some Phenomena's may change its behavior at some point (Period) of time, so, it may have two different Patterns (Models) or more. Therefore, at the same time the researcher introduce the Classical identification (AIC , BIC) ,also introduce the new ones ( Table - C and FPE that depended on Kernel function. Where the researcher Make a Suggestion Kernel function in identification. Also we concern with Estimation parameter of Linear and nonlinear Model AR(P) , EXPAR(P) , SETAR(L,K,K,…,K). Here , the researcher also introduce a suggestion of Estimation method grouping the advantages of each of Parametric Estimation Like (Burg and Fisher) and nonparametric like (Spline) together. Also the researcher offers and there proposition about using MGCV Criterion for Estimation ( Spline Method) so in comparison. Also researcher introduce a Suggesting , using the initial Value for Smoothing parameter in Estimation Method (Spline). The researcher used Simulation experiments, by using ( Monte - Carlo) Method, where applied with different Sample Size and different Parameters, Where first : The identification suggesting shows an efficient Criterion especially With the model AR and SETAR , Second : for the estimation suggesting which shows an efficient criterion compared with all the models applied in the simulation experiments

تاثير الاوضاع السياسية على الطفولة في العراق خلال الفترة 2006 - 2010 == The Impact of Political Status On The Childhood In Iraq During 2006 - 2010

Author name: فائز حامد سلمان السعدون الزيدي
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تحاول الدراسة الحالية بحث وضع الطفولة في العراق واثر الاوضاع السياسية عليه.فلقد تم دراسة وضع الطفل تحت سن الخامسة باعتبارها الفئة العمرية الاساسية للطفل لفهم واقع الطفولة في العراق ولبناء توجيهات علمية تسلط الضوء على المشاكل العديدة التي تواجه الاطفال بغي | This study attempts to study the status of the childhood in Iraq and the impact of the political situations on it.It tries to study the status of the children under the age of five years for it is the essential age of the child to understand the reality of the childhood in Iraq and to build the scientific guidelines that highlight many problems facing the children in order to have the documented procedure to improve their living conditions. The present study focuses on four fundamental axes.The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has calculated the indicators of these four axes relying on real data of a sample whose size is (18144) families obtained from the Ministry of planning and Development Cooperation/Central Bureau of statistics and Information Technology Data.The Data has been analyzed by the statistical program (SPSS VERSION 12.0) using two methods of statistical tools the field of analyzing data of multilateral variables (Multilateral Analysis) namely, cluster analysis and factor analysis.In the light of the results of the data analysis some conclusions are worth observing : 1. The conclusions showed that 840 of the Iraqi children whose age is under five years suffer from the medium or server weight, and that fifth of the children undergo from being pygmy (their length does not suit their age).2. The conclusions also showed that the majority of death cases of the children under five years 85% occur in infants only.3. 3% of the age (36 - 59 months) joins the education like nursing or kindergarten.4. There are differences among provinces in Iraq with regards to the proportion of orphans among children. The higher average is found in AL - Muthana province 9%, in kerbala 9% and in Diyala 8%. This proportion is a result of the unstable circumstances in these provinces which has been shown by the cluster analysis of this indicator.5. The results of the factor analysis showed that the variables (health effects) have a great effect (impact) on forming the first factor on Iraq in general and on the countryside environments, whereas the nutrition variable have a great impact on forming the first factor on urban environment.

نموذج القياسات المتكررة المتعدد المتغيرات ذو الاتجاه الواحد والاختبار الكروي == One - Way Multivariate Repeated Measurements Model And Sphericity Test

Author name: فاطمة هاشم فلحي نور
Supervisor name: عبد الحسين صبر المويل
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: Repeated Measurement model is one of the most models widely used in field of Experimental Design especially in Agricultural Researches, Biomedical and Epidemiology that is involving in this field. This thesis is devoted to the study of One - Way Multivariate repeated measurement model. Three aspects of work are considered : The first aspect : we consider the multivariate repeated measurements analysis of variance ( MRM ANOVA ) model for complete data.The multivariate repeated measurements generalize repeated measurements in the sense that it allows a vector ofobservations at each measurement; we will consider the case of multivariate response variables. The terminology we use for the various MRM designs in this aspect is a one - way MRM ANOVA refers to the situation with only one within - units factor , which welabel as "Time" for convenience while we label as "Group" for between - units factor. For such model, the observations are transformed by an orthogonal matrix. The ANOVA which is based on the first set of transformed observations provides the ANOVA for the between - units factor effects, while ANOVA which is based on the th k set of transformed observations, for each k=2,3,…,p provides the ANOVA for within - units effect. The problem of the testing hypothesis of multivariate repeated measurements ANOVA model for complete data are studied in this aspect. The test statistics of various hypotheses on between - units factor, within - units factor, and interaction between.The second aspect : we study the sphericity test for one - way MRM ANOVA model.Also we obtain the likelihood ratio criterion and the th h Moment of this criteria. As well as the asymptotic expansion and limiting distribution of its test, statistics are obtained. These aspects are represented in the second chapter of this thesis.The third aspect : we applied the one - way MRM ANOVA model for the chemistry experiment data in order to investigates the possibility of environment pollution in the water of Shatt ALBasrah Khor AL - Zubair.Also we obtain the likelihood ratio criteria from the variance - covariance matrix which is obtain after transformed observations by using orthogonal matrix. The result have shown that is MRM is a best used because it care with the correlation between observations in the model. In addition, we have shown through likelihood ratio criterion is satisfying the spherical hypothesis in the theory aspect with practice aspect which is represented in third chapter of this thesis.

مقارنة بين الخوارزمية الجينية والشبكات العصبية في تقدير موقع الوسيط لنماذج الانحدار متعدد المتغيرات اللامعلمي == Compared Between Genetic Algorithm And Neural Networks To Estimate The Model of Multivariate Nonparametric

Author name: فاطمة عبد الحميد جواد البيرماني
Supervisor name: صباح منفي رضا الشمري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تستعمل الطرق اللامعلمية في البيانات التي تحتوي على قيم شاذة، الاهمية الاساسية في استعمال الطرق اللامعلمية هو تحديد موقع الوسيط، ففي انموذج انحدارمتعدد المتغيرات يكون من الصعوبة تحديد موقع الوسيط لوجود اكثر من بعد وتشتت القيم وزيادة بيانات الظاهرة المدرو | Used Nonparametric methods to estimates the data containing outlier values ,where classical statistical methods are affected in estimation by having these values,the fundamental importance in the use of Nonparametric methods in the estimate is to identify the median location ,in the multivariate model be difficult to identify the location ,because the model contain more than distance , dispersion of the values and increase sample size.In this thesis it has been the application of genetic algorithms and neural network to find estimate for the median location so dependent on a minimum covariance determinant as one of nonparametric method robust in estimate.The comparison was made between genetic algorithm and neural network in determining the best way to give more accurate results and faster as especially when increasing the size of the sample in addition to the proposed methods and most important characteristics of genetic algorithms and neural networks , possibility of merging with each other to generate a new generation of genetic algorithms and neural networks , after determining the best way of comparison between the genetic algorithm and nural network as well as between the proposed roads are estimated coefficients of the model to the changing time - smoothing spline using either paved parameters have been estimated in manner CV. The study has been applied to environmental pollution statistics to drinking water for the year (2013) included all of Iraqs’ provinces except for the Kurdistan region , divided into (10) months have been used (9) the types of chemical indicators and physical causing contamination of drinking water at the minimum of the measure exceeded.The most important conclusions , the application of genetic algorithm Fast - MCD - Nested Extension where better than MWCDgenetic algorithm , either the proposed genetic algorithm resulting from the merger between Back propagation and above results were better than MWCD genetic algorithm , in terms of neural networks , the use of neural network ART were more the accuracy and speed of multilayered neural network Back propagation and from genetic algorithm Fast - Nested Extension , either neural network resulting from merger between the network ART , Multilayered neural network as well as compared with the proposed genetic algorithm.

تقديرات معلمات انموذج الانحدار متعدد العوامل - متعدد الحدود من الدرجة الثانية مع تطبيق عملي == Estimations Parameters Multi - Factor - A Polynomial of The Second Degree Regression With Practical Application

Author name: غيث عبد الشهيد كاظم السلطاني
Supervisor name: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في انماذج الانحدار تكون عادة العلاقة بين المتغير المعتمد ( ) والمتغير المستقل ( ) او المتغيرات المستقلة ( ) خطية وفي انماذج اخرى تكون لا خطية. وان انموذج الانحدار المتعدد العوامل - المتعدد الحدود من الدرجة الثانية من النماذج اللاخطية والتي يمكن من خلاله ا | Regression models for the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the independent variable (X) or independent variables (X’s) which are linear or nonlinear. And multiple regression model factors - Multi - border second class of nonlinear models that can get through the estimators of its parameters. In our research was one of the hypotheses regression unrealized, which is that the random error distribution was the distribution of non - identical (Generalized logistic distribution) which led to the use of more accurate methods than the ordinary methods , such as method of robust Laplace and modified maximum likelihood to obtain a estimates of multiple regression parameters factors - multiple modalities border from the second division. On the theoretical side of this research it was addressed to display some specimen multi - factor regression parameters estimates formats - Multi - border quadratic using ordinary least squares method and the method of the modified maximum likelihood and robust Laplace. In the Experimental side it has been the work of experiments using simulation and comparison of these experiments was the use of the index statistical mean square error of the parameters for the model, and through comparison between the methods show that the modified maximum likelihood was the best. As the best values for my shape parameter and scale parameter (b=1,?=1 ) and each sample sizes (n = 20,50.100). As it has been the application of the modified maximum likelihood to real data represent the fact that your natural hormone insulin diabetes depending on the enzyme GOT data, and the GPT enzyme and hormone Hbalc.It was reached to increase the hormone Hbalc lead to a decrease in the hormone's natural insulin diabetes and this leads to an increase in blood sugar, and increase the enzyme GOT and GPT enzyme leads to increased natural hormone insulin.
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