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استعمال اشجار الانحدار التصنيفية والانحدار اللوجستي في تقدير انموذج تجميعي والمقارنة بينهما مع تطبيق عملي == Using Classification Regression Trees And Logistic Regression To Estimate Additive Model Comparison With Application

Author name: سهاد احمد احمد
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعاني بعض الظواهر من وجود حالة اضطراب في بياناتها بالاضافة الى صعوبة صياغتها وخصوصا مع وجود عدم وضوح في استجابتها، او لكثرة الاختلافات الجوهرية التي تعتري الوحدات التجريبية التي تم اخذ هذه البيانات منها. فعندما تزداد المجاميع لمجتمع ما, لا يمكن اعتبار ذل | Often suffer phenomena and there is disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. When growing groups of a population, it can't be regarded as a homogeneous population is increasing because the dispersion between the experimental units in response to that population as well as the error will also be increasingly difficult to build a model of that population.So there was a need to include an estimation method on the classification or underlying discrimination for these pilot units using discrimination or create segments for each item of these pilot units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more in line style.Has been resorting to the use of the method of a modern and flexible classification is based on the neighborhoods between the views represented by the response variable by classification regression trees : CART. It was the use bayesian approach and the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and collect trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage fork on the other hand, represented the bayesian classification regression trees : BART.In view of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of science it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science swarm of birds and other originally illustrated algorithm for the purposes of technology pertaining to distinguish between images or vibrational radio, etc., can be harnessed to serve the knowledge of statistics, which is based Turn on the information production and to achieve success in it. So is the use of genetic algorithm and submit a proposal by modified genetic algorithm, in addition to C4.5 and ID3 algorithms. And without losing the generality has been used as a tool of logistic analysis as important tool.It was a whole performance along with an estimate of the general additive model method of classification of all the methods mentioned in the above. Fitted model as modern and flexible overcomes curse of dimensionality that may occur most modern phenomena of the times when their data analysis.It was the use of simulated samples of different sizes (200, 400, 600) with (1000) replicates. The application was performed on patients with diabetes data for those aged (15) years and below are taken from the sample size (200) was withdrawn from the children hospital/ Al - Eskan/ Baghdad.As proof of the goodness of classification has been using the misclassification error, and as proof of the goodness of estimation has been using the root mean squares error.Was reached important conclusions through a process of differentiation among the six methods above, the superiority of the Classification and Regression Trees Algorithm (CART) is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in empirical side, when proposed Genetic Algorithm is the best in terms of the results that has been reached in applied side.

دراسة احصائية لوفيات الاطفال الرضع لمحافظة نينوى للفترة 1987 - 2004

Author name: سما سعدي علي الهاشمي
Supervisor name: عبد الحسين زيني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الاحصاء السكاني ( الديموغرافي ) من العلوم المهمة في الوقت الحاضر، فهو الدراسة الاحصائية للسكان وخصائصهم وفعالياتهم وتغييراتهم من حيث التكاثر والوفاة والانتقال والعوامل التي تؤثر فيها والنتائج التي تنشا عنها. من اهم التغيرات التي تحدث على السكان ه

الارتباط القويم والشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية : دراسة تطبيقية == Canonical Correlation And Artificial Neural Network (Application Study)

Author name: سليمة حمادي جاسم
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي | عدنان شهاب حمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعتبر الراتبا ط القويم طريقة عامة في دراسة العلاقات بين مجموعتين كم المتغيرات ويتميز عن الارتباط البسيط في كونة يقيس العديد من العلاقات البسيط في الوقت نفسة وعن الارتباط المتعدد في كونة يقيس قوة العلاقات بين مجموعة من المتغيرات التوضيحية ومجموعة من المتغي | I used the model of canonical correlation analysis, and artificial neural network model.In the practical part, it has been chose the student performance in the four years, and because of modernity of the experiment of evening schools, and comparing it with morning schools for the works administration and accounting departments in Administration and Economics College / University of Baghdad in order to know the performance of the student through the four years and the possibility to reduce waist in educational system, whether in training powers and other requirements to reach a top valuable scientific level with a less possible expenditures, and assuming their performance using the model of canonical correlation analysis and artificial neural network model to reach and compare the results in the two models to get a best model.

اشتراك توزيعي ويبل وتكوين توزيع الباي ويبل == The Participation of Two Weibull Distributions And The Formation of Bi - Weibull Distribution

Author name: سلام جاسم محمد الساعدي
Supervisor name: علي عبد الحسين صالح الوكيل
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الاهتمام الواسع والمتزايد بدراسة موضوع المعولية باعتباره علما يتعامل مع اعمار المعدات ولاسيما احتمالات البقاء ومتوسط الحياة وهذا يعود بالاساس الى التطور التكنولوجي السريع واستخدام الانظمة الالكترونية المعقدة في مختلف المجالات. وعلى هذا الاساس فان در | The wide increasing concern of studying the topic of reliability as a science dealing with equipment ages, especially the survival and life average probabilities rendered to the fast technological development and the utility of complicated electronic systems in various fields. On that basis, the studying the topic of reliability and the connection between the theoretical and applied sides together have a great importance because they are considered the indicator towards stating the extent of efficiency and capacity of the machine and the work system without damages for a long period of time, accordingly, the study of (Weibull Distribution) is a sample of failure functions because this distribution is suitable when failure rates are high relatively at the operating start, then these rates decrease gradually with time increase. Accordingly, the thesis includes mainly a display of a new sample of joint distributions which is known as (Bi - Weibull). This kind of distribution gives more elasticity and more accurate results.Hence, the basic statistical measures and the parameter estimation of (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) were found through (MLE) by using the simulation method (Inverse Formula). In order to reach the research aim, the research is divided into five chapters. Chapter one deals with the topic general backgrounds and function definition including the reliability function. Whereas chapter two is dedicated to expose the methods of estimating the parameters of the (2 - Parameter Weibull Distribution) with displaying the basic statistical measures of (2 and 3 - Parameter Weibull Distributions). As to chapter three, it includes the theoretical side of (Bi - Weibull Distribution) with the exposure of the following three states of this distribution : - (4 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (5 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) - (6 - Parameter Bi - Weibull Distribution) with their basic statistical measures.Chapter four manifests the research programs and simulation results as well as result analysis. Chapter five includes the conclusions and recommendations the researcher has arrived at

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير المعلمة التمهيدية لدوال اللب متعدد المتغيرات وتوظيفها في الدوال التمييزية مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison of Some Smoothing of Estimate Methods For Multivariate Kernel Functions And Employs Them In Discriminants Functions With Practical Application

Author name: سكينة شامل جاسم
Supervisor name: لقاء علي محمد العلوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان التحليل التمييزي (Discriminant Analysis ) غالبا ما يعاني من مشكلة صغر حجم العينة ( SSS ) Small Simple Size خاصة عندما يتم تطبيقها لتصنيف انماط عالية الابعاد مثل (التعرف على الوجه، حركة اليد وحركة الجينات الوراثية و...)، او عندما تكون البيانات لديها | The linear discriminant analysis often suffer from small sample size (sss) problem.especially when they are applied for the classification of high_dimenssional patterns. Such as (face recognition) or when data is distributed normal distribution but when they are non _ linear and has spread widely. We are dealing with this problem by using a technique of kernel discriminant analysis. because this technique depends on the kernel density estimation which belong to the class of estimates. it is commonly perform Avery important technique for visualizing data distribution and smoothing. It is unimportant to procedure in the explanatory data analysis, as that used in kernel discriminate analysis well known by researchers. To identify statistical. patterns. it is also known that these estimates are. Based mainly on the choice of bandwidth parameter end controlled on smoothing of estimation and to choice kernel function. has been the use of carton methods to estimate band width parameter it is : plugin methad Least square Cross validation method Smoothed Cross validation method Are selected as a parameter of bandwidth and use in kernel density estimation (KDE( and then employ them in kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) approach. Through the joint base for groups is a kernel discriminant rule (KDR) which rely heavily on density classified (f ?_j) and probability of prior (? ?_j).therefore the problem of multiple class(The use of several variables) will be more important and visible to be parameter of bandwidth is different when compared with various densities classified. Finally, it was real data from the general blood cancer disease and style simulation application, as it was reached that way (KDA - SCV) is best when using the above standard compared with other methods because it gave the misclassification rate least.in the practical side results showed in such a way that nine people were the first (n1... n9) of the first group are infected with disease among 50 people is infected and 12 people from the second group infected with the Lisu people living with and they (n45... n50 and n1... n6 ).

مقارنة بعض الطرائق اللبية في تقدير نماذج الانحدار اللامعلمي بوجود بيانات تامة وغير تامة == A Comparison of Some Estimation Methods For Kernel Models In Complete And Incomplete Data

Author name: سعد كاظم حمزة
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | مناف يوسف
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان استخدام النماذج المعلمية يتطلب العديد من الشروط الاولية التي يجب توافرها لكي تكون قراءة هذه النماذج قراءة صحيحة كما تتطلب وجود بيانات من النوع الكمي الامر الذي دفع الباحثون الى البحث عن نماذج اقل صرامة من النماذج المعلمية وتمثلت هذه النماذج بالنماذج ال | Using of parametric models require a number of preliminary conditions that should be available to make the reading of these models right as well as the presence of quantitative data which motivated the researchers to search for models with lesser terms than the parametric models represented by nonparametric models. One of nonparametric methods important for estimating nonparametric regression function known as (kernel estimation) to be used for estimating any statistical function which is (smooth estimator) free of disorders modifying the observations and approximating estimated regression function to real nonparametric regression function. Hence, the researcher showed some kernel methods to estimate the nonparametric regression function in both cases complete data (FNW, FLLS, VNW, VLLS) and incomplete data (FSNW, VSNW, FINW, VINW, FSLLS, VSLLS, FILLS, VILLS) and compared them through the simulation method as well as using different models and different sizes of samples and variants. From noticing the simulation results, it was shown that the best smoother was (FLLS) by using the first model, while by using the second model, it was shown that the best smoother was (VLLS) and in the third model was (VNW). In case of incomplete data, the best smoother was (VSLLS) by using the first and second models while by using the third model, the best smoother was (VSNW)

بعض المقدرات الحصينة لقدرة الطيف وفق الانموذج المختلط ARMA مع تطبيق عملي == Some Robust Estimators For Power Spectrum According To The Arma Models With Application

Author name: سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهدف الاطروحة ايجاد افضل مقدر(التقدير الامثل) لدرجة ارتداد الانموذج المختلط ARMA ذي الدرجات المتدنية لقدرة الطيف Power Spectrum والحصول على امثلية التنبؤ، اذ ان مشكلة الاطروحة تكمن في خطا اعتماد اساليب تقدير درجة الارتداد قبل اطفاء اثر الشواذ التجميعية ( | The Aim of The thesis is finding the best estimator (optimal estimate) the degree of rebound mixed model ARMA with low scores to Power Spectrum and get optimizing forecasting, As the problem of the thesis lies the mistake of adopting methods of estimating rebound degree before extinguishing (AO) Outliers (additives Values) in an estimate operation based on data series without getting rid of the effect of the presence of Outliers. According to This thesis addressing the Existence of the Outliers, in particular, (AO) Outliers after addressing the existence of Outliers, then starting estimate the optimization for a rebound.When interest in Robust estimates we must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models is defined due to lack of stability in addition to the difficulty of knowing specimen probabilistic it appears at first paragraph leap suddenly are called stereotypes Bahawaz Innovation Outlier, late to be the behavior of independent gay behavior values the other called Bahawaz aggregate Additive Outliers.When interest in estimates fortified must identify the time series contaminated Outliers with a certain probability models Unlimited Parameters is defined due to lack of Stationarity in addition to the difficulty of knowing probabilistic model ,it appears at first paragraph sudden leap are called Innovation Outlier, or be an independent behavior of other values called Additive Outliers.Shows the experimental side of the Thiess through a standard MSE, MAPE preference of Robust method on the Unrobes for all sample sizes and for all primary parameters assumed values, as well as for all default frequencies values (Wi), have an adverse impact in terms of efficiency when models ARMA (0,1), ARMA ( 0.2), and very slight variation when the model ARMA (1,1) the impact of outliers and the supposed frequencies (w) = [1/4, 1 / 3.3, 1 / 2.5, ½] small.The nature of the electrical signal surveyed of heart (ECG - Electrocardiogram) a vital signal , unstable and the form of Signal spectrum reflects the Performance of the human heart muscle and its health.is random changes sharp and irregular in time series represents the work of the heart of a natural person (without straining) include what is known Outliers caused by its actual nature not the result of errors in the measurement or the register, which makes them do not follow a particular distribution, led to the difficulty of conducting Assessments for Power spectrum according to the traditional methods of estimation that assumes distributed statistically,In addition to that the data generation processes require the availability of basic assumptions is inconsistent with the nature of the Heart signal ECG, and to minimize or reduce these assumptions adopted by the simulation approach often leads to unrealistic and far from the real system results and establishes a breakthrough for good properties of these estimates that we have made it necessary to adopt the idea of Robust estimates (M - estimate) in accordance with the Robust functions (Huber, Hample, Tukey, Andrew) in addition to the method of maximum likelihood Mle according to restricted simulations in the practical side, which serves as a purification process or soften the Estimators resulting from follow of statistical estimation methods on real data to determine the best estimators of Power spectrum and the search for the best Model and section distribution , and then apply the result of a trade - offs in according to indicator the indirect transition of the speed of the signal (?/S2) between the Estimation functions and Distributions on eight of combinations of Mixed model ARMA (p, q) and estimating MSE, RMSE and selecting the optimum combination which is ARMA (2,2) with Extreem value distribution and with Hampel function at section 200, which amounted to (MSE = 0.000109).

الاتساق الذاتي وتحليل المكونات الرئيسة == The Self - Consistency And Principal Component'S Analysis

Author name: سحر طارق محمود الرحيم
Supervisor name: رفعت لازم مشعل الخميسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعني عبارة " الاتساق - الذاتي " اختبارا لمحور المكونات الرئيسة عندما يرتكز التوزيع على المحور الذي يعطي تقريبا بسيطا للتوزيع الاصلي متعدد المتغيرات.جرت عملية الاختبار بفحص نقص المطابقة Lack of Fit Test في ضوء طريقة البوتستراب (Bootstrap ) اي ( تكرار ا | The term " Self - Consistency " means ; examine the Self - consistency of a principal components axis : when a distribution is centered on a principal component axis, which provides a simple straight line approximation to a multivariate distribution.A principal component axis of a random vector X; is self - consistent if each point on the axis corresponds to the mean of X given that X projects orthogonally on to that point.this examination is done by " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test applied on to two kinds of data set (real and simulation) with different samples (small, medium, large),depending on the probability values for getting levels of significance (to assess the self - consistency of principal component axis) which is based on the frame work of the data set, whether it will be true (towards to the elliptical form for the multivariate normal distribution) or generated data set using the restrictive simulation ( towards to the asymptotic spherical form for multivariate normal distribution ) that's for estimating the self - consistency by the hypothesis ;Hk : Yk is self - consistent for Xprincipal component analysis for factor analysis is use with the aim of analyzing the large number of variables and their effective factors by the factor rotation procedure which is assumes also the multivariate normal distribution, with proposed technique, based on the smallest column on X for different sizes of samples ( small " 5 - 20 " , medium " 25 - 50 ", and large " 60 - 100 ").High level of fit, is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit" test in all sample size for all research variable's; with little difference and the best for male group of the results for female group on the size ( 5 - 35 ) , conversely for another size's.and also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the small sample size ( 5 - 20 ) for true data set using direct oblimin rotation method for male group, in the medium sample size ( 25 - 50) using the same method with direct method( None) for female group.In generated data set by normal restricted simulation technique, also high level of fit is the result of " Bootstrap - Lack of fit " test in all sample size's and for all sample Size's (small, medium, large) and for tow group's (male, female), which indicate to the usefulness of using the restricted simulation technique to take pure data set, and the model with high level of stationary.also we saw highest level of self - consistency in the different sample size's, using the varimax rotation method for tow Group's (male, female), the two method's ( none, direct oblimin rotation) in some of sample size's which refers to corresponding the normal stat with varimax rotation method ,that is well known of its object for simplified explaining the factor matrix by maximization the loading variance

مقارنة بعض الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية لبعض تصاميم القياسات المكررة == A Comparisoin of Some Parametric And Nonparametric Methods For Some Repeated Measures Designs

Author name: سجى محمد حسين علي الهاشمي
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في الكثيرمن الدراسات الطبية والتربوية والسيكولوجية (علم النفس)وعلم الاجتماع نشاهد بان المفردات (subjects) تتكرر تحت مختلف الشروط التجريبية((conditions والتي تسمى بالمعالجات (treatments) وان البيانات المتجمعة من مختلف الوحدات التجريبية تفترض لان تكون مستقل | In many medical , educational , psychology and sociology studies we find that the same subjects repeated under different experimental conditions which called treatments. The collected data from different experimental units suppose to be independent while the observation for the same experimental units will be dependent. The term repeated measures designs is called for this type of data in which the response for every experimental units or subjects is tested or measured under a number of different experimental conditions. Our attention will be on the case of a univariate response variable. There are many procedures for testing the null hypothesis that there is no treatments effects, depends on the number of treatments. either the same subjects are tested under two treatments or tested under three treatments or more. The aim of this study is comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods of repeated measures designs for two treatments through applying the tests on true experiments data. and comparing the tests for nonparametric and parametric methods for three treatments or more, which included two designs which are the complete randomize block design when the ANOVA conditions are satisfied. And the One - way generalized repeated measures model when does not assume specified form of the variance - covariance matrix.Simulation procedures are used in order to compare probability of type one error and power of the test for all methods. In addition , the researcher presented the suggested methods and analyzing the results by comparing them with the other methods for the mentioned designs.

مقارنة اسلوب بيز مع طرائق اخرى لتقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول == A Comparison of Bayesian Approach With Another Methods To Estimate Reliability Function For Pareto Distribution of The First Kind

Author name: ستار محمد صالح
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول (Pareto Distribution of the First Kind) في حالة توافر معلومات اولية عن المعلمات وفي حالة عدم توافرها وتم توظيف اسلوب المحاكاة (Simulation) بطريقة مونت كارلو (Mont - Carlo) للمقارنة بين طرا | In this dissertation, an estimation of reliability function for the Pareto Distribution of the First Kind has been done in the case of exists a prior information and not exists. A simulation approach by Mont - Carlo method is used to comparisons between the methods of estimation to find the best method of estimation this function. To realizes the object of search, the search is divided into four chapters. The first chapter contain an introduction, object of search and the review of literature. The second chapter contain the theoretical part. The third chapter include the experimental part, and finally the fourth chapter include the conclusions that researcher find they and recommendations suggested from him about the search. The researcher find that the Bayes approach is the best in estimation of reliability function comparing with the other method of estimation through depending on the two statistical measurements integral Mean Squared error (IMSE), and integral Mean Absolute percentage error (IMAPE).

طرائـــق بيــز فــي تحليــل نمــوذج القياس الاقتصادي المكاني مع تطبيق عملي == Bayes Methods In Analyzing Spatial Econometrics Model With Practical Application

Author name: سامي غني خضير عطره
Supervisor name: خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الخاصية الاساسية لتمييز البيانات المكانية عن بيانات السلاسل الزمنية هي الترتيب المكاني للمشاهدات , وعينات البيانات المكانية تمثل مشاهدات ترتبط بنقاط او مواقع وتتميز هذه البيانات بان ارتباطها يضعف كلما بعدت المسافة وكذلك تتميز بتدرج المكان (( المناطقية | The main property to differentiate the spatial data from time series data is the spatial arrangement of observations and the samples of spatial data represent observations related to points or locations these data are distinguished with the weakness of their connection each time the distance getting far away and the place graduation (location)on the spatial relations of observations are represented in matrix named spatial weights matrix. The spatial econometrics is used in following up the spatial effects like the spatial dependence of observations in different points of place, and spatial heterogeneity arising from relations or parameters model that change with sample data in each time we move within the place , those two points have been neglected in traditional econometrics because of their sinconsistency of statistical assumptions and when taking those spatial effects into consideration ,the statistical influence will be of high efficiency. On the contrary, ignoring these effects will lead to loss the information and will not be as efficient as the dependant sample.Because of the difficulty of deriving the posterior function (on which the Bayesian inference depends) up on applying the Bayesian methods especially in cases that the number of probable models is very large as computing the posterior functions for all these samples requires integration for large dimensions functions which is very difficult Mathematically or inapplicable that requires proper methods can deal with such cases like Gibbs and Metropolis - Hastings sampling by analyzing the posterior distribution to number of conditional distributions for each parameter in the model and then the simplicity of inference for each parameter in the model.The matrix of spatial weights is built by registering the contiguity relations for each location with others in a matrix row (w?) and given (1) if there is a relation between two locations (wij=1) and zero, if it doesn’t (wij=0)as i and j refer to the rows and columns in sequence. For making the summation of each row in the matrix w? equal to 1 , the elements of matrix will be calculated according to the proportion : wij/ ?wij and i=1,2…,n j=1 Consequently, we will get the adjusted matrix W.The practical side was focused on the counting of spatial autoregressive model parameters, and these parameters is the vector ? and it is an ordinary regression parameters vector, and error variance parameter (?2) , and the most important of them is a countig of the parameter (?) which is represent spatial dependance parameter.In order to show the role of the spatial, the practical side included taking the real population for childrens between(1 - 19) year, that had iron deficiency anemia (due to from iron deficiency) that admitted to children’s hospitals in Kurkh district of Baghdad (which had been divided into five geographic regions) for 2010. We have suggested that computing the elements in the adjusted matrix to be on basis of the actual length proportion of the joint borders among different locations that lead to get the accurate estimated value of spatial dependence parameter، where value result of spatial dependence parameter (?) was (0.43) when use Metropolis - Hastings sampling method while value of this parameter when use spatial outoregressive function and by using the adjusted matrix was( 0.57) and value of this parameter when use the same regression function but by using the suggested matrix was (0.85).

دراسة تحليلية للعوامل البيئية المؤثرة على انتاج التمور في محافظة البصرة == An Analytical Study On The Effect of Environmental Elements On Dates Production In Basrah

Author name: سامر عادل عبد الله
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اصبح المناخ اليوم من الموضوعات الرئيسية المهمة التي تحتل مرتبة الصدارة لدى جميع دول العالم المتقدمة والنامية، لاسيما بعد ان تبين بوضوح مدى التغيرات التي شهدها في العقود الاخيرة. والتي تحدث اما لاسباب طبيعية نتيجة اختلال في توازن النظام البيئي او لاسباب بش | Climate has become a key topic that occupies the forefront of all developed and developing countries around the world, especially after the climate change witnessed in recent decades, These changes occur due to either natural causes as a result of an imbalance in the ecosystem, or human causes such as human economic activities, these changes affected many aspects of life, one of which is the agriculture, including palm cultivation and dates productionThe aim of this research was to study the effect or the relationship between climate and dates production, which is considered one of the most important crops that can be relied upon economically. This research uses the method of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis to find out the climatic elements effecting the productivity of two types of dates (Helawi and Zehdi). The independent variables (climatic side) were the average of the yearly rates for (Maximum temperatures, Sunshine duration, Relative humidity, Wind speed and Suspended dust) in Basra city for the period (2005 - 2014), and the dependent variable was the average of the palm tree productivity measured in (kg), which represents the (agricultural side). The results showed that there are three factors (variables) affecting dates production of (Helawi), which are (sunshine duration, suspended dust and wind speed) because they were statistically significant. As for the (Zehdi), there were two statistically significant variables, which are (Sunshine and Maximum temperatures). The conclusions and recommendations were founded by using the Stepwise regression in statistical package (SPSS v19)

مقدرات بيز لدالة المعولية الضبابية للتوزيع الاسي باستخدام المحاكاة مع تطبيقها على الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية == The Fuzzy Reliability Function Bayes Estimators For Exponential Distribution Using The Simulation With It Is Application On The State Company For Elictrical Industeries

Author name: زينة ياوز عبد القادر اوجي
Supervisor name: عماد حازم عبودي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يدرس البحث الضبابية والتي مفهومها ان كل قيمة تقع ضمن فترة معينة،ونعتمد في تحديد حدود هذه الفترة على الخبرات السابقة حول موضوع الظاهرة المدروسة.وفي بعض الاحيان يصعب تحديد هذه الفترة ونتعامل مع القيمة الضبابية وما حولها من القيم القريبة دون الاعتماد على ا | This paper concerned with studying the fuzzy which means that each value is within specific period and to determinate the limits of this period depends on previous expertises about the studies phenomena subject.Some times it is difficult to determine this stage or period ,in this case we deal with the fuzzy values and other proximate ones without depending on previous expertises ,because they are not available or because of te differences in points of researches,view about the determination of minimum and maxmum restriction for there values.Through this research we will treat fuzzy lifetime data that each value does not have minimum and maximum limitation which enable us to appoint the sutable belonging degrees but all lifetime data have minimum restriction which represent the begininning life time , and maximum one that represents the end of lifetime And by using membership function of Ching to determing a membership function for those data , This paper discussed two procedures to estimate the fuzzy reliability ,Bayes procedure that includes the following : 1 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter.2 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter. 3 - Sample data are fuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes a fuzzy parameter. 4 - Sample data are unfuzzy and the prior distribution for parameter includes an unfuzzy parameter And FRDP (Fuzzy Reliability Definition Procedure) that uses component trapezium method,to find numerical integration ,by using the Exponential distribution form for sample data,and Gama distribution for the prier distribution for the parameter of Exponential distribution ,and four value for sample size.And depending on the results that have been conducted in the experimental side ,it is shown that bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability when the fuzzy sample data have membership degree equal to 0.1for samples of small sizes. When the failure times average value is bigger than one ,so Bayes is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for small samples sizes,and FRDP is the best in estimating the fuzzy reliability for sizes of big samples The data which have been taken from the state company for electrical industries of foundation machine Toshiba are used as well after bayes method and FRDP method are applied to estimate the fuzzy reliability,it is noticed that results of both the applied and experimental side are th

مقارنة الاساليب المستخدمة في تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة مع جانب تطبيقي == The Comparison of Methods Used In Determining The Principal Components Number With An Applied Aspect

Author name: زينة ياوز عبد القادر
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: استخدم تحليل المركبات الرئيسة في تحليل الكثير من الظواهر الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، ومن هذه الظواهر اخترنا ظاهرة تخص شريحة واسعة من مجتمعنا الا وهي ظاهرة تاخر حصول التدريسي الجامعي على اللقب العلمي التالي، ولان تحديد عدد المركبات الرئيسة الداخلة في تحليل ا | The principal components analysis is used in analyzing many economic and social phenomena; and one of them is related to a large group in our society who are the university instructors. This phenomenon is the delay occurred in getting university instructor to his next scientific title. And as the determination of the principal components number inside the principal components depends on using many methods, we have compared between three of these methods that are : (BARTLETT, SCREE DIAGRAM, JOLLIFFE). We concluded that JOLLIFFE method was the best one in analyzing the studying phenomenon data among these three methods, we found the most distinguishing factors effecting on the phenomenon was (the number of the lectures the university instructor has, the administrative routine, the entertainment activities, family situation, shortage in academic staff, pages number, the use of the internet and the political attitude). So , we should begin with treating these factors as a first step for motivating university instructor to develop his thinking capabilities.

تحليل التجارب ثنائية العوامل المتزنة وغير المتزنة لبيان اثر عاملين على بعض صفات محصول الشلب في العراق

Author name: زينة ابراهيم حسن رشيد
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | احمد شهاب احمد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان التجربة العاملية (التي تهتم في وقت واحد وتجربة واحدة بدراسة عاملين فاكثر ),اذ ان لكل عامل مستويات ,وبتوافيق مستويات العوامل تتشكل المعالجات العاملية , هذه التجربة لها اهمية كبيرة في الجوانب التطبيقية وتتسم بالمزايا : - 1انها تسهم في تقلي | 1. It contributes to reduce the cost, time, efforts, and experimental units as a result of the implementation of a single experiment, rather than two or more experiments.2. Provide us by information of the main effects of factors and the effects of interactions of these factors.3. The possibility to compare all different combinations of two or factors to be studied.4. These experiments provide an opportunity to compare the levels of each factor separately, as if the experiment was devoted to him alone.Therefore, the information that we get from factorial experiments always be more perfect and realistic than those we get from single - factor experiments.The factorial experiments held by adopting equilibrium that is oriented common and natural , it might generated cases of unbalance ( what is allocated of the number of plots for each uneven factorial treatment), which may be done on purpose by the researcher (performing the experiment) or it may be due to lack of materials or resources, which leads to identify groups of processing that will be dealt with, or for other reasons like damage or loss pieces or results of experimental subject to certain processing. Such situations cause them a problem of how to analysis it, so the goal of this message is to research deeper theoretically to contribute in find solutions for the research problem and the vast knowing of the analysis methods of the balanced and unbalanced factorial experiments, with discussing the possibility of propose a method or technique to analysis this case. since been in separate theoretical aspect of this message addressed to several ways in addition to provide a proposed way for analysis. The theoretical beside the practical aspects has been improved (Chapter three) to take an advantage of a realistic data experiments (not analyzed) carried out with the Public Board for Agricultural Research (the party was made contract with) where the experiment has been analyzed (balanced and unbalanced factorials) to study the impact of the rice verities factor and also the distances of planting the rice for many characters of the rice crops, as well as study the impact factor rice varieties and planting dates factor on some of the qualities of the rice crop has implemented in Mashkhab station in the province of Najaf, and we used the methods of the analysis presented in addition to the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the moral of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are available to use each method of analysis and the proposed method. The conclusions have been reached regarding the significant of these factors and their interactions and to the possibilities that are made available to use all method of methods of analysis and the suggested method was as as follows : 1 - perferred to use method frequencies the expected cell in the case of that the data is unbalanced and semi - proportional.2 - perferred to use method un weighted means in the case of that the data is unbalanced and disproportional.3 - perferred to use method of harmonic mean in the case of that the data is unbalanced and two case proportional and disproportional.4 - prefer to using the suggested method (median method ) in the event that the data is is unbalanced and disproportional.5 - prefer to data analysis unbalanced without trying to estimate missing values.

استخدام سلاسل ماركوف في التعرف على تعاقبات الحامض النووي DNA

Author name: زينب هاتف عباس الركابي
Supervisor name: ضوية سلمان حسن الجنابي | علي عبد الرحمن الزعاك
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان للحمض النووي الدنا DNA اهمية كبيرة وبالغة لكونه حاملا للمعلومات الوراثية وبالتالي فان دراسة تعاقبات الحمض النووي DNA سوف تعطينا انطباعا عن الصفات الوراثية للكائن الحي.وبالنظر لاهمية سلاسل ماركوف في تفسير وتحليل الكثير من الظواهر من حيث حيز التكرار، ول | The DNA has great importance because it is a hereditary information carrier. In view of the importance of markove's chains in explaining, and analyzing many of the phenomenae through succession, our research incentive has therefore came to represent markov chains applications on the DNA and considering the conditional transitional probabilities of these chains elements for its great importance in finding the hereditary genetics from DNA compositions. Markov chains has been implemented for the probable alignment of the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth orders. Three means depending on these alignments have been used. Experimentation on four of DNA chains was carried out for human growth hormone and relied on DNA succession for comparison between the three ways that nominate the chain of the greater probability to represent the gene.In addition, a program was created to code and translate the three models of the ORF for the DNA succession and the chains for the three models which start with the start code and end with the stop code. The program was written by Visual basic language to carry out these operations and to yeild sequence alignment between the human growth hormone gene and other chains.The program implemented DNA chains in which the nucleotide number is less than 3000 bases examplified by the human growth's hormone, mouse and chicken growth hormone.As well, entrotoxins produced by E.coli, salmonella , shigella representing prokaryotes were also included one of the most significant conclusion reached is that markov assessment method of calculated weights by means of Chi Square is the best mean for identifying genes from DNA sequences.

استعمال سلاسل ماركوف وشبكات بيز الديناميكية لاحتساب معولية شبكة ماء الاعظمية == Use of Markov Chains And Dynamic Bayesian Network To Calculate The Reliability of Water Network Adhamiya

Author name: زينب مجبل ابراهيم
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اهتم الباحثين في دراسة المعولية والاتاحية لاستخدامها في مجالات عدة ومنها الطبية والهندسية والميكانيكية وفي علوم الحياة الخ. وهنالك اساليب وطرق مختلفة لدراستنا منها الطرائق المعلمية واخرى لامعلمية في معرفة التوزيع لاوقات الفشل وفي حالة فشل الباحث في التو | Researchers interested in the reliability and availability, to be used as a study in several areas, including medical, engineering, mechanical, and in the life sciences etc. There are different methods and ways to study such methods parametric and another for non - parametric to know the distribution of the times of failure in the case of a researcher failed to reach an appropriate distribution of one of these methods non - parametric is the style of Markov chains and dynamic Bayesian networks where the use of Markov chains to calculate the reliability and availability, and then draw a transitional scheme of the system consisting of these five units and the formation of differential equations governing the system and then solving these equations to find the probability that the network status assigned to be in time t was also a possibility account of the situation balanced when t is very large, and through it is calculated reliability and availability. But the style dynamic Bayesian networks as it has been translated dynamic fault tree to Bayesian networks, dynamic and has been the possibilities for calculating each phase of the network and calculating reliability through MATLAB software (2015a) and writing for each gate equations as the value of each of the gate static AND gate dynamic calculation WSP, a gate warm and the integration of the two preceding gates gate static OR after calculating the value of this gate is calculated reliability can be observed reliability decreasing values with increasing time as the reliability value when t = 0 is 0.999 that is, they are not equal to 1 because there are repairs to the network and value when t = 8640 is 0.023, and decreasing the reliability of the system with time and close to zero after 20 years from now

دراسة تحليلية لتصاميم تجارب القطع المنشقة SPED والقطاعات المنشقة SBED مع تطبيق عملي == Analytic Study For Split Plot Experimental Design (SPED) And Split Block Experimental Design (SBED) With Practical Application

Author name: زينب فالح حمزة
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان فكرة القطع المنشقة كانت قد وجدت لتضيف الى مزايا ومواصفات التجارب العاملية فوائد تطبيقية تصب في تركيز وتحسين دقة واهمية دراسة تاثيرات العوامل والتفاعلات بينها كونها تحوي اكثر من مصدر للخطا العشوائي ونظرا لما نالته هذه الفكرة من توسع واضافات كثيرة في الج | The idea of split - plot had been found to add to the advantages of factorial experiments and specification of practical interest is in the focus and improving the accuracy and the importance of studying the effects of factors and interactions between them. they contain more than one source of random error because of the indiscriminate earned by the idea of expansion and additions in many theoretical and practical contribution to the diversity and evolution with approved design and since we have observed that the practical uses in our country , though many of it's but limited to the adoption of the idea of split - plot design or split - split only, and purpose of contributing to clarify and depend the understanding and importance in the practical aspects of these additions which has focused the aim of this research (thesis) to provide in depth analytical study of some of the designs , practiculary designs of split - plot and desins of split - Block and what could be concluded from the ideas of the designs that has practical benefits , especially in the agricultural field was taken as the theoretical aspects (models , plans , analysis ) to design of ,split - plots , split - plots systematic arrangement whole plots, split - plot in time & and analysis of Covariance and the design of split - Blokes and the designs of split - split plots & the design of combination between split - plots & split Block then the practical application had been don using The experiments in agricultural (including rice crop ,and crop of peas) Resulted modern & variety data for the year 2008 in the rice research station in Mashkhab in ALnajaf governorate in addition to data for chick pea crop obtained from the station of Rabiaa where the data were analyzed using (SAS - stetictical analysis system). the results of analysis showed that the variety Anbar 33 is the best compared to other varieties for rice crop , and the age 27 day is the best compared to other ages. The designs that have not been able to conducted, which is also not present previously in our country has been adopting the idea of simulation usin visual basic Program, as shown in the appendices ( program 1,2) done by the researcher deals the design of combination between the split _ plots and split Blocks compare it with _the design split _split plot - and the program no(2) that concerned designing split Blocks. The analysis Results for both designs performed to be used in agricultural experiment as it provides high accuracy.

استعمال البرمجة اللاخطية في بناء نموذج رياضي لتخطيط الانتاج وفق قيود الخصم على الكمية المشتراة == Usage of Non - Linear Programming In Building A Mathematical Model For Production Planning According To Discount Constraints Put On Bought Amount

Author name: زينب علاء حميد
Supervisor name: عبد الرحيم خلف راهي الحارثي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هــذه الرسالة تـم بناء انمـوذج تخطـيط الانتاج (على المـدى المتوسـط) في الشـركة العامـة لصناعة الزيـوت النباتيـة باستعمال اسـلوب البرمجـة اللاخطـية بسـبب قـيود الخصـم على المواد الاولية الداخـلة في المنتجات الرئيسـية للشـركة ودراسـة حالة الخصـم على ثلا | In this thesis was to build a model of production in the medium term planning in the general company for the manufacture of vegetable oils using nonlinear programming method due to the discount restrictions on raw materials involved in the company’s main products and study the opponent case of the only three products among the six products because they require intense mathematical calculations lead to a significant expansion of the research was to focus on that piecewise makes the target function is not linear because they contain a series of line segments included breakpoints that earn the target function form sporadic presence intermittent developments[2][43] , application of the style of programming integers on a linear model using the program Win Qsb plan earnings productivity (3,640,000,000) billion dinars the method algorithm simulated annealing on the nonlinear model using Matlab software profits of productivity amounted (7,556,100,000) billion dinars a difference (3,916,100,000) billion dinars note that the algorithm method of simulated annealing give the best of programming integers method results as the company achieved the fullest extent of the profits according to the opponent while programming the numbers in a manner correct, which in turn destroys the rebate check cases a small percentage of the profits. This means that the results that have been reached in a manner simulated annealing algorithm is better than the programming method of integers.

استعمال مباريات التطور التعاونية المقابلة في تحديد نقاط الجذب للمجتمعات مع تطبيق عملي == The Use of Cooperative Games Development In Determining The Corresponding Points of Attraction For Communities With A Practical Application

Author name: زينب عبد الحسين عبد الرزاق
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة ومن خلال الفهم العام لنظرية الالعاب التطورية ( التي تعد من النظريات الحديثة ) القائمة على محاكاة المجتمعات في تطورها الديناميكي وصولا الى الامثلية في الاستراتيجيات بمرور فترة زمنية طويلة , ومهما طرات على المجتمعات من تذبذبات صائبة وخاطئة ف | In this letter and through the general understanding of Evolutionary game theory (which is one of the modern theories) based on the simulation of communities in the development of dynamic and down to the fitness of strategies over the long period of time, and whatever occurred in the communities swings right and wrong in the selection of strategies utensils should be points of the stability of these communities in the long run, and points of stability, this sometimes exhaust the points of great cross - matrix of payment, which is a magnet for society has been achieved and there is more than a magnet for the combined multiple identical (MPS) (multi - population symmetric games) through the employment of simulation method where generation vehicles heading y ?, x ? who represent the community first, second, as well as selecting values Al afteradp for the parameters (k_1, k_2, S_1, S_2), and assuming two functions Trabieitin f_2, f_1 To achieve this has been divided into the interval [ - 30.30] to eight spaces double points sample was assumed to points for summits local are ( - 15.15) and (15, - 15) and demonstrated that the stability, not necessarily to be points of great single, comprehensive, and it is this stability, the values of a great local to the matrix of pay rows and columns. This proved that the change in the field of the horizontal domain and vertical impact on the points of stability which could lead to changing the course of society, instead of heading towards the summit of Great overall edged heading toward points of great local flatter and Tvltaha, and demonstrated that the presence of the top super - local approach in the elevation of the summit of Great overall change the course of society. As in the application has reached the researcher to identify points of attraction between teaching in Iraq and the staff at the University of Baghdad and also for added degrees of years of service and responsibility to employees of the equipment of heavy engineering to find attractions to carry the burden of service for many years and done responsibly. And previous studies available to the researcher urged that the evolutionary model of the corresponding games has been limited to only together, so the focus was on mainstreaming the specimen to include the three communities have been reached to be through the theory of a simplified version of the graph (Graph Theory).

بناء انموذج رياضي لمشكلة النقل في ظل قيود ديناميكية الطلب مع تطبيق عملي == Building A Mathematical Model For The Transportation Problem Under The Dynamics of Demand Restrictions With Practical Application

Author name: زهراء قاسم هاشم
Supervisor name: عبد الجبار خضر بخيت
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تم في هذا البحث بناء انموذج رياضي لمشكلة النقل لبيانات الشركة العامة لتجارة الحبوب في بيئة من الطلب المتغير وحدود على الكميات المعروضة والكميات المطلوبة , كما عالج الانموذج حالات الطوارئ التي تواجه الشركة من نقصان او عدم وصول كميات الحبوب للسايلوات وذلك | In this research we built a mathematical model of the transportation problem for data of General Company for Grain Under the environment of variable demand ,and situations of incapableness to determining the supply required quantities as a result of economic and commercial reasons, also restrict flow of grain amounts was specified to a known level by the decision makers to ensure that the stock of reserves for emergency situations that face the company from decrease, or non - arrival of the amount of grain to silos , also it took the capabilities of the tanker into consideration and the grain have been restricted to avoid shortages and lack of processing capability, Function has been adopted in the mathematical model is a total of two functions : the first linear to reduce the overall costs of the transportation problem And the second linear fractional represent the proportion of public expenditure for the silos to college profits.a balanced model and equivalent to model the original problem has been formulated. The results proved the efficiency of the model in the distribution of the amount of grain where the total cost was reduced to (24%) with ensuring the existence of reserve stocks and meet the demand of mills.where the reserve stocks sufficed nearly to a month and half , The total expense was reduced by (32%) and the profits ratio was maximize at (7%) , the mathematical model was solved by using,hadvancedrsoftware(LINGO14.0)

استخدام التحليل الاحصائي في دراسة واقع البنى التحتية للاسرة العراقية لعام 2013 == The Use of Statistical Analysis In The Study of The Reality of The Infrastructure of The Iraqi Was Captured In 2013

Author name: زهراء علي هاشم
Supervisor name: ابتسام كريم عبد الله
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد دراسة واقع البنى التحتية وتحليل مؤشراته ومحدداته من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية. لذلك اختير هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات مسح خارطة الفقر ووفيات الامهات في العراق الذي نفذ خلال ال | The study of the reality of infrastructure and the analysis of indicators and determinants are important issues for Iraq, which aims to achieve economic and social development more realistically. Therefore, this research was selected using the data of the survey of the poverty map and maternal mortality in Iraq carried out during the year 2013 by the Central Statistical Organization and using the SPSS to reach the variables that have a direct impact on the level of the infrastructure of the Iraqi family. The analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the twelve variables to reach the factors that actually affect the level of infrastructure, which included housing, electricity, water, sewage system, basic services. The cluster analysis method was adopted and the data of the twelve variables were converted to the standard formula. To eliminate the difference of units of measurement of these variables and thus ensure the validity of the implementation of the stage related to the process of data classification and determine the extent of the relationship between the Iraqi provinces in terms of similarity or difference and in the last stage to enter the methods of analysis and analysis. Two main methods of analysis were used : the main vehicle method and the main axis method. It was obtained through the results of the main vehicles method that there were two factors (the value of the underlying root is greater or equal to the correct one) namely housing, electricity, water and basic services factor with an explanatory capacity of 85.469 (847.82%) of the total variance, and the remaining 17.153% of the total variance, and the remaining 14.531% Due to other factors. Thus, the cluster analysis used two methods of hierarchical analysis, ie, the single link and the total linkage. The results were close to some minor differences among them. Most of the aggregates' tables were close to a small difference in transactions. This difference depends on the methodology of each method.

استعمال اسلوب بيز لتقدير منظومة المعادلات الانية في حالة المتغير الداخلي مصنف ثنائيا مع تطبيق عملي == Using Bayesian Approach To Estimate The Simultaneous Equations System In Case The Endogenous Variable Is Classified Binary With Application

Author name: ريسان عبد الامام زعلان
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان عملية التقدير لمعلمات انموذج المعادلات الانية بالطريقة التقليدية من المواضيع المهمة والتي كتب عنها الكثير من البحوث والدراسات وهذه البحوث تختلف باختلاف الاساليب المتبعة في عملية التقدير الا ان التقدير بالطرق البيزية لهذه المعادلات وخصوصا عندما يكون ال | The process of estimation of parameters of the following equations has been done by the traditional method and being considered as an important subject. Many researches and books have been written about the subject and these researchers are different from one to another depended on the methods followed up. But the estimation with Bayesian methods for these equations , especially when the internal variables (classified binary ) being considered one of the subjects that have not been researched greatly. Thus , the researcher has tried to shed light on some methods of Simultaneous equations in case of binary variable by using the classic method and Bayesian method , along with a suggested way that being applied on the samples of the relationship between blood pressure and psychological pressure. The researcher has used the classic method and considered it as raw information for using the method of Bayesian in estimating the Simultaneous equations system. It has been compared between the classic method and Bayesian method and also methods of Bayesian with the suggested method according to the measurement of ( Mse) for specifying the better method for estimation. Problems have been specified lying in non - functionalizing the former information about the parameters in the process of estimation by using the known traditional methods and that lead to the less efficiency if not using it. Thus , it should resort to other methods as method of tradition , The goal of the study is to know the mutual interaction between the blood pressure and psychological pressure and comparing the traditional and Bayesian method in the estimation of Simultaneous equations of internal variable , classified binary by using many methods for Bayesian estimation with the suggested method for getting to estimations that are more close to values of the real parameters. it has been reached to many results ,most of which is the Bayesian method and suggested method that have been better in estimation than the classic method, besides there are mutual effects between blood pressure and psychological pressure and the most losing functions in estimation which is the " Q losing function"

استعمال الانتروبي مع طرائق اخرى في تقدير دالة بقاء توزيع كاما العام للسكان في العراق == Use The Entropy With Other Methods In Estimating The Survival Function of Generalized Gamma Distribution To The Population

Author name: رغدة زياد طارق العبيدي
Supervisor name: عمر عبد المحسن علي القيسي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تستخدم جداول الحياة في مجالات عديدة في البحوث الديموغرافية والصحية وتمثل مؤشرا هاما للوفاة في المجتمع. ويتم احتساب جداول الحياة من بيانات الوفيات لسنة معينة للمجتمع السكاني، لذا فهو يعبر عن حالة الوفاة للمجتمع.وهناك نوعين من جداول الحياة وهي : (جداول الح | Life tables used in many fields in the demographic and health research is an important predictor of death in population. Then, calculated life tables of mortality data for a particular year the population of the community, so it reflects the rate of death of the community in somehow. There are two types of life tables, called : (Complete Life tables) and were based on the age at death on the basis of single - year age groups (0,1, 2,3,..., 81+) and were usually obtained in a manner comprehensive survey or census in order to provide detailed information on the population. The second type called (Abridged life tables) were assumed from equal death rate for ages converged with each other and are therefore based on the age at death on the five - year age groups (0 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 10, 10 - 15,..., 80+) which is different from its predecessor and less accuracy than is obtained in a manner sample survey. In the absence of census of our beloved Iraq, where the last census was in (1997), so be getting the calculated probability of survival through accurate (survival function) within the life tables for single - year age groups was extremely difficult and mired with disorder problems you need to mathematical treatment in accordance with the distribution of probabilistic statistical but it's distributed data showed the distribution of the Generalized Gamma : (GG) with three parameters as the best fit of the data, with this distribution in turn includes the integration of (incomplete gamma function) is implicitly making it more difficult traditional appreciation. So two major goals were arise in this thesis.The first goal of a practical application goal, using (Sprague multipliers) to convert a five - year age groups into single age. The second goal of theory using the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : (POME) in assessing the function of survival and to deal and overcome the turmoil and volatility demographic data collected from (Iraq Household Socio - Economic Survey : IHSES II 2012). This thesis had studied the function estimating survival data mentioned above on two parts : the first part, parametric estimation methods which is the method of Principle of Maximizing Entropy : POME, the Classical method is the Maximum Likelihood : ML. The second part, has included nonparametric method to estimate survival function by nonparametric method (Kernel Smoothing) been used as (Gaussian function). The estimation methods were compared using statistical criteria are the root mean squares error (RMSE), and the average absolute percentage error (MAPE). Among the most important conclusions, was the preference for a ML method and kernel method when a simulation to get the proportions views of the probability distribution (GG) and in a manner Inverse Transformation Method : ITM only single - year age groups sized by (n = 81) and repeat the experiment (300) replicates. As well as to reach that way entropy is the best method dealt with five - year age groups, where in the case of single - year age groups, the nonparametric kernel was best in when the practical application part. Life tables using MORTPAK program as it has been considered survival function results (UN) calculated values real and comparing the methods of the three appreciation. One of the main recommendations, the use of the (POME) to overcome the turmoil of demographic data, especially a five - year age groups and the use of Sprague data conversion from five - year age groups to transactions single - year age groups and the use of nonparametric method of kernel to assess the function of survival of the single - year age groups and entropy for five - year age groups data.

تحليل احصائي مقارن لواقع الصناعات الغذائية في العراق لسنة 2007 == Comparative Statistical Analysis of The Reality of The Food Industry In Iraq For The Year 2007

Author name: رعد عبد الرزاق علي
Supervisor name: سعد احمد عبد الرحمن النعیمي
General topic: Administration and Economics
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
University: University of Baghdad - Faculty Of Administration And Economics - Department Of Statistics
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ‘تعد الصناعات الغذائية ركنا اساسيا من اركان الاقتصاد لما لها من قدرة وفاعلية على انعاش وتحريك مجمل العمليات الاقتصادية في البلاد. ولانجاز هذا البحث اعتمد الباحث على بيانات المسح الصناعي الزراعي الذي نفذ سنة 2007. استعمل الباحث اسلوب تحليل التباين ذي | Food industry is a cornerstone of the economy because of their ability and effectiveness in the rehabilitation and move the overall economic processes in the country. To accomplish this research the researcher depended on the agro - industrial survey data which was implemented in 2007. Researcher used the method of analysis of variance one - way, to make comparisons between the activities of different food. Was chosen for this purpose are five important variables : production, productivity, value added, fixed assets, number of employees. The results indicated the existence of significant differences between activities, in some provinces and the lack of significant differences in other provinces for these variables. As well as the researcher used the method of factor analysis, to study the problems faced by food establishments, to find out the problems that actually affect the performance level of the plant food. Has had problems related to exports the greatest weight in the composition of the Working President(I),namely : 1.Sellingpriceslow. 2.Externaldemand is not enough.3. Competitive exporters of the Middle East.4. Compete with Chinese products. 5. Compete with other exporters.6. The lack of information on foreign markets. 7. The existence of competition between the exporters and the Iraqis
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