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مقارنة بعض الطرق الحصينة للمربعات الصغرى الجزئية == Compare Some of Robust Methods For Partial Least Squares

Author name: ميسون علي رحمن المندلاوي
Supervisor name: هلال عبود البياتي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: الحمد لله والصلاة والسلام على رسول الله سيدنا محمد (صلى الله عليه وسلم )وعلى اله وصحبه وسلم اما بعد...يتناول البحث استخدام انحدار المربعات الصغرى الجزئية PLS)) Partial Least Squares وهي تقنية انحدار خطي طورت للتعامل مع انحدارات ذات ابعاد عالية لمتغير وا | Partial least squares regression ( PLRS) is a linear regression technique developed to deal with high - dimensional regression and one or several response variables. In this paper we introduce robustified version of the SIMPLS algorithm being the leading PLRS algorithm because of its speed and efficiency. Because SIMPLS is based on the empirical cross - covariance matrix between the response variables and the regressors and on linear least squares regression, the results are affected by abnormal observations in the data set. Two robust methods covariance matrix for high - dimensional data and robust linear regression. We introduce robust RMSECV and RMSEP values for model calibration and model validation diagnostic plots are constructed to visualize and classify the outliers. Several simulation results and the analysis of real data sets show the effectiveness and the robustness of the approaches. Because RSIMPLS is roughly twice as fast as RSIMCD, it stands out as the overall best method.

بناء انموذج للمعاينة البيزية المفردة بافتراض مربع كاي كتوزيع مسبق == Constructing A Model For Bayesian Single Sampling Plan Assumed Chi - Squaar As A Prior Distribution

Author name: ميسون حميد فرج محمد
Supervisor name: محمد صادق عبد الرزاق الدوري
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتضمن هذا البحث بناء انموذج لخطط المعاينة البيزية باستخدام نظرية القرار، هدف الانموذج التوصل الى معالم خطة بيز المفردة (n,c) حيث n تمثل حجم العينة، c تمثل عدد القبول الضروريان لفحص المنتوج واتخاذ قرار لرفض او قبول الدفعة. قمنا باشتقاق ومناقشة خصائص نظام خ | This research deals with the process of Constructing a model for Bayesian Single Sampling Plan by using decision making theory. The aim of this Model is to obtain the parameters (n,c) which represent Sample size (n) and acceptance number c, which are necessary to inspect the lot and to make a decision whether to accept or reject the product. We drive and discussed the properties of the system of single sampling attributes plan obtained from minimizing the average Expected cost under the assumption that cost decision is a linear function in lot size and sample size. The distribution of the sampling is a mixed Poisson distribution i.e, each lot produced is in Poisson Control but the process average varies from lot of anther according to frequency distribution which is assumed to be derived in the neighbor points of the break - even quality level. We explain all the notation and steps of obtained the total Expected cost of quality Control, which contain the item of cost (Cl,C2...C6) upon the decision of acceptance or rejection, and then how to solved mathematically using forward Variances function to reach the Optimal Parameters (n*,c*). Then the Optimal size of the Sample size is identified is linear function from square root of the lot size. Some auxiliary tables are given, Which represent the results we obtained which indicate that the prior distribution of quality is Chi - Square with m degree of freedom, we apply NP - Chart to make decision about process, we apply also the test of goodness of fit for testing the hypothesis.

مقارنة بين طرائق تقدير المعولية في حالة الاجهاد والمتانة لانموذجي باريتو وويبل == A Comparison of Approach Estimation Reliability Incase of Stress - Strength For Pareto And Weibull Models

Author name: مي تحسين عبد الحليم العاني
Supervisor name: صباح هادي عبود الجاسم
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الرسالة تم تقدير المعولية في حالة الاجهاد والمتانة لبعض النماذج الاحصائية على فرض ان متغيري الاجهاد والمتانة العشوائيين مستقلان ولهما التوزيع نفسه. ولقد كانت نماذج الاجهاد والمتانة التي تم اخذها بنظر الاعتبار في هذا البحث هي الاتية : اولا : انموذج | In this dissertation, the reliability of the stress and strength has been estimated for some statistical distributions on the assumption that the variable of stress and strength are random and independent and have the same distribution, where is the stress and strength model have been taken under consideration in this research are as follow : 1 - Pareto stress - strength model.2 - Weibull stress - strength model.The methods of estimating the distribution parameters for each model were the maximum likelihood (ML) moment (MOM), least square (LS) and sharing age (Sh) depending on the availability of primary information about the parameters in order to be estimated.In this research a comparison was conducted among the methods mentioned above to estimate the reliability in case of stress and strength the models in order to reach to the best method to estimate the reliability by assigning Monte Carlo simulation approach depending on the two statistical measurement such as the mean square errors (MSE) and mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for comparison between the priority of estimators and various sample size (small, medium, large).The researcher which reached to best method is Maximum Likehood Method (ML) to estimate the reliability in case of Pareto stress strength model, and Shrinkag Method (Sh) to estimate the reliability in case of Weibull stress strength Model, that are presented in this dissertation

بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات دالة المعولية لنموذج احتمالي مركب مع تطبيق عملي == Some Methods of Estimation Parameter Reliability Function of The Probability Model Compound With Practical Application

Author name: مهدي علي عبد الحسين الدريعي
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد التوزيعات الاحتمالية المركبة من التوزيعات الاحصائية التي كسبت اهمية متميزة في العقود الاخيرة وذلك لتطبيقاتها الواسعة في المجالات الهندسية والصناعية والتجارب الطبية والبايلوجية وبناء على ذلك فقد تم استعمال انموذج احتمالي مركب (الاسي - ويبل) ذي الثلاث | The probability distributions compound is important statistical distributions which gained importance and wide in recent decades, to the importance of their use in scientific fields, and at the Advanced has been addressed in this letter to the probabilistic compound model (exponential - Weibull) with three parameters and characteristics enjoyed by such possibility Writing probability density function and cumulative function and reliability function was used four different methods of estimating 1 - Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method2 - Percentiles Estimators Method3 - Least squares method4 - Weighted least squares methodAnd a favorable comparison between these estimators using simulation style through several experiences of one of the main users of statistical standards which is the mean squer error It was reached that the best way to estimate the reliability function is the Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method for having the lowest mean squer error.Or in the practical side it has conducted a practical application to real data taken from the State Company for Textile Industries in Wasit, which is for times of failure for machines textile department and assess the sample sized 101 machines communtiy 450 machines function of reliability with the use destined reached by a researcher at the experimental side, a Maximum Likelihood Estimators Method, and through the results turned out to estimate reliability function decreases gradually increase the time.

نموذج للتخطيط القوى العاملة : دراسة ميدانية في كليتي الطب والادارة والاقتصاد - جامعة البصرة == A Model For Manpower Planning A Survey In Medical & Admin. & Econ. Colleges University of Basrah

Author name: منى طاهر غافل الربيعي
Supervisor name: محمد عبود طاهر
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: It is difficult to recruit the manpower of lecturers to provide the University of Basrah with them. University of Basrah suffers from the problem of putting a planning system for manpower which taking into consideration the following three systems (supply of the lecturers, demand of the lecturers, controlling of these two systems). In order to achieve that aim, the researcher performed this study "A Model for Manpower Planning" which depended upon a model to predict the size of manpower supply and demand for Lecturers in the Medical and Administration & Economics Colleges. These employees were separated into groups such as, the length of career period, or ages groups, to show the deficit or the surplus and the equilibrium between supply and demand. To carry out that model, it was used "Visual Basic 6" programme.(CD can be demanded from the researcher) This study could be considered an initial study in manpower planning among the structural systems of the manpower. It is a continual for the previous studies besides the following additions : 1. Find the expected supply of the manpower with expected demand for every rank of the hierarchy with freedom of choosing the number of the ranks to be no more than two or four.2. Calculate supply and demand of the manpower separated into groups such as the length of career period or ages groups. 3. Putting an equilibrium between supply and demand and putting conditions for promotion, recruitment and wastage.4. Representing the model in the computer by using (Visual Basic 6) language to construct easy model to be used to find the expected demand and supply for ever rank and showing the deficit or the surplus and the quantity of promotion, recruitment and wastage for every rank.

مقارنة طريقة Taguchi مع طريقة سطح الاستجابة للتجربة العاملية الجزئية باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparing Taguchi Method With Response Surface Method For The Fractional Factorial Experiment By Using of Simulation

Author name: منال جبريل محمود تيم
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني | عبيد محمود محسن الزوبعي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تتلخص هذه الرسالة باعطاء فكرة مبسطه عن التجربة العامليه 2 n من حيث المعالجات والتاثيرات والنماذج والتصاميم الرياضية، ومن ثم دراسة تكوين التكرار الجزئي للتجربة 2n عندما يكون عدد العوامل مساويا الى ثلاثة عوامل وكل عامل بمستويين متضمنة توضيح طرق التحليل الا | The thesis provides simple idea for the 2n fractional experiment, it, treatments ,impacts, and mathematical models and methods, and studying the establishing of fractional frequency for 2n experiment when the number of factors are three with two levels each. and explaining the statistical analysis methods which are convenient for the two levels case for each factor in fractional factorial experiment ,and the same for 3n fractional factorial experiment when the number of factors are three with three levels each, then studying the robust design through Taguchi criterion design approach and Taguchi experiment method, and studying response surface, its, design of first and second grade, and applied it in selecting the levels and it’s values. The research depend mainly on using simulation method for Comparing Taguchi method with response surface design (first and second grade) by using (MSE)as measurement tool. The simulation experiments results approve that response surface always gives better results for (MSE) THAN Taguchi method.

مقارنة المقدرات اللا معلمية لتقدير دوال الكثافة الاحتمالية == Comparing Nonparametric Estimators For Probability Density Estimation

Author name: مناف يوسف حمود
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان المسالة المهمة والرئيسة في التطبيقات الاحصائية تتمثل بمعرفة التوزيع الخاص بالمجتمع المطلوب دراسته ومعرفة خصائص ذلك المجتمع كي يتم تمثيل المجتمع تمثيلا سليما من خلال استعمال الاساليب الاحصائية الشائعة.في بعض مسائل الاستدلال الاحصائي المدروسة يتم افتراض | In some problems of statistical inference considered, we assumed that the distribution of random variable being sampled is known except, perhaps for some parameters.In practice, however, the functional form of the distribution is seldom, if ever, known. It is therefore desirable to devise some procedures that are free of or depending on few information or assumption concerning distribution.In this dissertation we demonstrate and study some procedures that are commonly referred to as nonparametric or distribution - free and also semiparametric methods.The term “Distribution - free” refers to to the fact that no assumption are made about the underlying distribution except that the distribution function is absolutely continuous.The term “Nonparametric” refers to the fact that there are no parameters involved in the traditional sense of term parameter used thus far.The term “Semiparametric” refers to combine the parametric term with nonparametric term, which there is few information or assumption about the distribution function.In chapter one we demonstrate an introduction to the problem, the main of the study and the historical review.In chapter two we demonstrate several nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for probability density function and these estimators are “fixed kernel which use fixed bandwidth or smoothing parameter, variable kernel which use variable bandwidth for each observation, semiparametric estimator which combine between two estimators {parametric by using of MLE and nonparametric estimator by using of fixed kernel}”.Beside these estimators we suggest four estimators like semiparametric estimator but the first suggestion combine MLE & variable kernel, the second suggestion combine two nonparametric estimators, the third suggestion combine robust estimator (for the mean & variance) with fixed kernel estimator, Finally we suggest estimator that combine robust estimator with variable kernel.Beside to above we demonstrate several estimators for smoothing parameter or bandwidth one of these estimators suggested from the author.Then we make a comparison between the parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric estimators with respect to bandwidth estimators by using simulation experiments, depending on different distributions (Normal, Lognormal and bimodal), different sample sizes and variances.We find that the best estimator for the density function is the first semiparametric estimator when we are using the 1st & 2nd distributions (Normal & Lognormal) except in few cases where we find the 1st suggested estimator is the best. And when we are using the 3rd distribution (Bimodal) we find that, the 2nd suggested estimator (Nonparametric estimator) are the best except in few cases where the other suggested estimators beside to 1st semiparametric estimator are the best.Also we find that the (BCV) estimator is the best estimator for the smoothing parameter when we are using the 1st distribution (Normal), except in few cases where the OS estimator is the best for h.For the 2nd distribution (Lognormal) we find the (LSCV) estimator is the best estimator for the smoothing parameter.Finally, For the 3rd distribution (Bimodal), We find that the (BCV) estimator is the best estimator for h except when the sample size equal to 100 (n=100), where the (DPI) estimator is the best.

المقارنة بين طرائق تقدير النموذج الرياضي لسلسلة الحمض النووي DNA مع تطبيق عملي == Comparison Among Mathematical’s Model Estimator Methods For Sequences Nucleic Acid DNA With Application

Author name: مظهر خالد عبد الحميد الجبوري
Supervisor name: فاتن فاروق صالح البدري
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الهدف من هذا البحث هو تحديد افضل نموذج رياضي احتمالي لسلاسل الحمض النووي الـ(DNA)، لغرض ايجاد (تقدير) تكرارات الجين لعينة سكانية تم استعمال ثلاث طرائق هي : الامكان الاعظم (Maximum Likelihood Method)، وطريقة العد (A count Method)، وطريقة برنشتاين (Berni | Aim of a research is to limit a better Mathematical model for Nucleic Acid (DNA) of evaluation of gene repetitions, for population sample then using of three methods of maximum likelihood and a count method, and Bernstien method.Evaluation of repetition considers so important to know how to distribute phenotype and genotype in order to know a distribution of phenotypes that show an effect of vary differences at this distribution to limit distribution function of these styles. Although dynamic programming principle is one of modern ones in condign of genetic sequences, thus the principle of condign ? - Globine sequence in human blood, so ? - Globine in Rats’ blood and mice blood. What are mentioned aims to compare between them by using genetic Algorithms and Global Alignment and local alignment to know a similarity and difference between these sequence which considers a good advance of analysing of coding and mutation, printing hold and visual Basic in order to write a special program with Algorithm of a global alignment to a chive this research.

الخصوبة السكانية في العراق تطورها والعوامل المؤثرة عليها واثرها في تحديد حجم السكان مستقبلا == Population Fertility In Iraq, Its Improvement And Effect Factors Upon And Its Influence In Specified Size of Population In Future

Author name: مصطفى حبيب مهدي
Supervisor name: تهاني مهدي عباس الياسري
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: The fertility represents most important variables in the population growth and determine the level of this growth and trends in Iraq is the countries with high rates of fertility compared to many countries of the world and the importance of this variable in the population growth and the fact that this variable influenced by demographic, social, economic and growth trends of these families and their development in society. The different methods to fertility measurements (direct and indirect ) in order to arrive actual fertility which matches with fact of Iraq based on data Censuses 1987 and 1997 and then an analysis or factors affecting them, which include as following : average of ages , and mortality and infant children , and the differences urban and rural education contribution of women in the workforce and uses contraceptives , religion wars that affect fertility behavior and reflected on the planning and development using style multiple regression adoption ready program ( SPSS ) , and was also study the effect of fertility in determining the size of population in the future adoption of the 1997 as base which exposes hypotheses which concerning with projections of (fertility, mortality and migration) and the results of these abortions during the period of 2022/1997 using ready program (spectrum) to build a database large dependent population for many purposes, such as planning, development and future population policy.The research divided into five chapters include first submitted and the aim of the research and previous studies and the second the theoretical side and the third (practical aspect) and fourth (population projections) and included Chapter fifth presents conclusions and recommendations that have been reached and the most important recommendations seen by the researcher ,are necessary

طرائق لتقدير معالم نماذج عمليات ليفي وتوظيفها في اسعار عوائد اسهم مصرفي الشمال والمتحد == Methods of Estimating Model Parameters Le'Vy Processes And Emoloyment In Returns Stock Prices North Bank And United

Author name: مريم جمعة موسى
Supervisor name: مناف يوسف حمود
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد سوق الاوراق المالية الهدف المنشود للمستثمرين الذين يرغبون في التخصيص الكفء للموارد المالية المتاحة لديهم الامر الذي يتطلب توفر قدر من البيانات والمعلومات المالية الصحيحة المتعلقة بالشركات التي تتداول ادواتها في السوق حتى يتمكن هؤلاء من ترشيد قراراتهم | The stock Exchange is the target for investors who are interested in the efficient allocation of financial resources available to them , which would require a lot of data on companies that are trading their tools on the market so they can rationalize their decisions and make profits unusal in light of market efficient proper financial in formation.However because there are fluctuations in returns stock prices resulting from low and high stock returns prices at the Iraq stock Exchange solve this problem by using stochastic processes models,One of the models le'vy. Relying on the so - called Brownian subordinate as it has been relying on the so - called Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG).the research aims as the estimate that the parameters of his model using two methods (MME,MLE) and then employ those estimate of the parameters in the study of stock returns and evaluate asset pricing for both the united Bank and Bank of North which their data were taken from the Iraq stock Exchange. As well as the use of simulation method for the purpose of simulating the practical side with a different presumed cases.Has been reached the practical side, which showed the results to a preference MLE on MME based on the standard of comparison the average square error (MSE).As for the side of the simulation it has shown favorable results also MLE on MME. As well as the simulation results indicated that the increase in the value of kurtosis and decreasing the value of skewnsses in NIG model it may cause a decrease in large volatility especially when increasing valumes of samples while side applied found that the yield rate of the stock of the Bank United is higher than the rate of returns for the North Bank as well asthe United owning less coefficient c.v compared with the North Bank and both estimater (MME,MLE).therefore the United Bank is the best investment of the Northa Bank in addition , the North Bank was less efficient than the United Bank for, leading this speech to preference of investors to invest with united Bank and its superiority on the North Bank.

مقارنة بعض خوارزميات التحليل العنقودي في تنقيب البيانات (Data Mining) مع واقع تطبيقي == A Comparing To Some of The Algorithms Cluster Analysis In Data Mining With Application

Author name: محي الدين خلف ايوب
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان التقدم العلمي المتسارع والانتشار الواسع للمعلوماتية ادى الى الاستعمال الالكتروني لمختلف المعلومات والتي اصبحت تتراكم بشكل هائل في قواعد بيانات كبيرة, وهنا تكمن اهمية البحث في محاولة تنضيج وتبويب هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات في قواعد معلومات تؤدي الغرض ا | Scientific progress is rapid and widespread Informatics web mail to various information which became accumulate dramatically, leading to try to find how tend to tab and this huge amount of data bases for information leading to the desired purpose. Work the term data mining (DM) is appropriate in this area and because of this importance of this research was to try to use data mining algorithms with the search in the accompanying circumstances. And a summary of research supports access to information and knowledge discovery through the use of techniques for data mining (DM) and also touched on the stages of exploration process of data passing through the stage of data processing and even the testing phase (F_test) to measure the case of variation or variation in the data when you reach a level of fitness (Optional). The results of the tests can be observed when changing the sample size (n) as well as the size of clusters (k) , and this leads to variation in the laboratory value (F) and in each case and her envelope. Cluster analysis of the data has spawned tests , The algorithm (K - Means) is the best , Comparing with (Single Linkage) and (Complete Linkage) algorithms A position to achieve the research hypotheses under the values shown in the tables , through calculable scale test (F_test) as well as the scale (MSE) , according to the results of experiments testing of samples sizes (n) and the size of the clusters (k) applied to the variables (v) Search.

استعمال البرمجة الديناميكية العشوائية في تخطيط الانتاج مع تطبيق في شركة مصافي الوسط == Using Random Dynamic Programming In Production Planning With Application In The Midland Refineries Company

Author name: محمد كاظم هواش
Supervisor name: خالد ضاري عباس الطائي
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتضمن البحث بناء انموذج برمجة خطية,ويحل بواسطة البرمجة الديناميكية لايجاد قيم متغيرات القرار وقيمة دالة الهدف.وقد تم بناء الانموذج باستخدام بيانات ثلاثة مصافي في شركة مصافي الوسط وهي (مصفى الدورة ,مصفى السماوة ,ومصفى النجف),وباعتبار ان كميات الطلب على كل | This research deals with Building A probabilistic Linear programming model representing ,the operation of production in the Middle Refinery Company (Dura , Semawa , Najaif ) Considering the demand of product (Gasoline , Kerosene ,Gas Oil , Fuel Oil ).are random variables ,follows certain probability distribution , which are testing using Statistical programme (Easy fit), thes distribution are found to be Cauchy distribution ,Erlang distribution ,Pareto distribution ,Normal distribution ,and General Extreme value distribution. The Built programme is transformed in to deterministic one and then solved by using Dynamic Programming ( Backward procedure ) To find the Optimal values of Descion variables and Optimal value of Objective Function. All the results are explained in tables, we work on using Dynamic programming according to the Rule of Richard Bellman for Optimality ,which depend on sub divide the Big problem ,in to sub problem ther is an Optimal Solutions ,then thes Solutions are Optimize to reach the final Optimal Solution, The Show all results included a private thesis in a special tables

بناء نموذج رياضي خطي لشبكة توزيع المنتجات النفطية في العراق == Establishing A Mathematical Model of Integrated Industrial System

Author name: محمد سعد ابراهيم
Supervisor name: فاتن فاروق صالح البدري
Specific topic: Operations Research
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان عملية صنع القرار عند وجود معايير متعددة تعد من المواضيع المهمة والسائدة في مجال بحوث العمليات والاقتصاد والهندسة والادارة وفي كثير من المجالات الاخرى اذ تتميز فكرة المعايير المتعددة بدلا من الاحادية بانها ”الامثل“ وهي ايضا تمثل مفهوما بديلا عن الام | Multiple Criteria Decision Making is one of the important and dominate subjects in the field of operations research, economics, engineering and management and in many different fields where the notion of multiple criteria rather than single criteria is characterized as the “optimal” and it also represents an alternative concept of traditional optimality because of due to the importance of this subject the goal of this study was to Establishing A Mathematical Model of Integrated Industrial System through the use of Multiple Criteria Decision Making approaches where the real problems is often constrained and needs a formula to find an optimal solution which depends on trade - offs for the evaluation of the best criteria and since the trade - offs are not existent among the single criteria this study basically depended on the multiple criteria concept which included eight concepts of optimality, fuzzy multi objective optimality, multi objective optimality with fuzzy constraints, solving non - fuzzy multi objective optimality, fuzzy goal and fuzzy constraint programming, tow phase approach for solving problem and goal programming with achievement functions. Because of the importance of white oil products (Benzene, Gas oil, Kerosene) in every day life and the continuous and increasing demand for it a mathematical model for system of the distribution of oil products network has been built to achievement two goals first is to minimize the cost transportation oil products through pipelines dedicated for transportation these products and second to minimize the shortage in the refineries to the maximum rate to respond the demand of oil products of all the governorates of the country where these objectives are subject to the constraints related to the amounts of demand for each governorates products energies of refineries, transportation energies, designable pipes energies and implicit constraints and this model was solved by using the ready made program (WinQSB - 98) respective of operations research models

مقارنة بين مقدرات التقلص البيزية ومقدرات التقلص لتباين التوزيع الطبيعي باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison Between Bayesian Shrinkage Estimators And Shrinkage Estimators For The Variance of Normal Distribution By Using Simulation

Author name: محمد حسين عبد الحميد جواد البيرماني
Supervisor name: اموري هادي كاظم الحسناوي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذه الدراسة تم تقديم مقترح لتقدير التباين للتوزيع الطبيعي وذلك من خلال استخدام التقدير البيزي للتباين والمعتمد على دالة التوزيع الاولي للمعلمة الممثلة للتباين في موقع التقدير الاولي ضمن صيغة التقدير المقلص بمرحلتين والتي تم تسميتها مقارنة بين مقدرات ال | In this study we introduce new suggest to estimate the variance of normal distribution, from by using Bayesian estimation for the variance that is dependent on prior distribution to parameter of the variance in first estimate location, include double stage shrunken estimate formally, that it called by comparison between Bayesian shrinkage estimators and shrinkage estimators for the variance of normal distribution by using simulation on topic study.The estimations are depended on two factors of shrunken, the first is random value and the second is function for the first sample size.In the simulation, we study double stage shrunken Bayesian estimators for the variance of normal distribution when the distribution mean is known.

تحليل الموجة الصغيرة Wavelet لتقدير منحنى الانحدار اللا معلمي == Wavelet Analysis For Estimating Nonparametric Regression Curve

Author name: محمد حبيب كاظم الشاروط
Supervisor name: ظافر حسين رشيد النجار | نوري فرحان المياحي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد توسعت امكانيات طرائق تقدير الدوال اللامعلمية توسعا هائلا في السنوات الاخيرة من خلال المساحة الواسعة من الادوات الحديثة في التحليل الاحصائي، وقد لوحظ تقدم كبير وملموس في مجال البحوث النظرية والتطبيقية للموجة الصغيرة في الاحصاء مثل بحوث الموجة الصغير

التقدير المتسق لمعلمة ميل انموذج الانحدار الخطي البسيط المتاثر بخطا القياس للمتغير التوضيحي مع تطبيق في المجال الصحي

Author name: ماهر محسن سلمان
Supervisor name: دجلة ابراهيم مهدي العزاوي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد طريقة المربعات الصغرى الاعتيادية (OLS) من افضل طرائق تقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي وان هذه الطريقة تتصف مقدراتها بصفتي عدم التحيز والاتساق وهذه من صفات المقدر الجيد , الا ان مقدر طريقة المربعات الصغرى يصبح متحيز وغير متسق اذا كان المتغير ال | Ordinary Lease Square (OLS) is the way of the best methods of Parameter estimating of Linear Regression Model , that’s where this method is characterized by unbiased and consistency , and these qualities of good estimator , but (OLS) estimator becomes biased and inconsistent if Explanatory variable contains measurement errors , and the study has been of two consistent estimators, were taking into consideration the presence of measurement errors and they are : reliability ratio method and this way corrects the biasing in (OLS) estimator and makes the estimator consistent , and the other way is : instrumental variable method ; and this way gives consistent estimator and contributes to support the explanatory variable through the addition of an external variable T ,and the instrumental variable must be correlate in a strong relationship with explanatory variable ,also has been showed the additional information's necessary to the alternative estimator to the (OLS). above methods have been applied by using of simulation style of the software MatLab as measurement of errors takes three distributions and they are : normal distribution , standard normal distribution and Uniform distribution by using three sizes of samples (100 , 50 , 20 ) the result showed that reliability ratio estimator method is the best estimator ; regardless of the size of the sample and the distribution of the errors measurement , and this finding corresponds to the findings of researchers , and on this basis has been applied Reliability ratio estimator method on the medical data obtained from patients have fallen asleep in the department of artificial kidney in (Yarmouk) hospital in Baghdad. that's where the level of Urea in the blood is dependent variable , two readings of blood pressure were taking for each patient ,which represent the average is instrumental variable , the purpose of taking blood pressure for each patient in order to estimate the variance of measurement errors ,also has been taken third blood pressure reading by using dialysis machine to represent instrumental variable , has been reached that the ratio of reliability for blood pressure measuring ranging between ( 0.80 - 0.85 (

دراسة مقارنة لطرق التقدير الحصينة لدالة البقاء مع تطبيق عملي على مرضى سرطان الدم في اليمن == A Comparative Study of The Robust Estimation Methods of Survival Function With Practical Application On Blood Cancer Patients In Yemen

Author name: ماجد هبة الله علي شريم
Supervisor name: هلال عبود البياتي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان معظم البحوث في موضوع المعولية اودالة البقاء يوجد عليها بعض الماخذ في عملية التحليل الاحصائي الدقيق الذي يهدف الى الحصول على مقدرات ذات مستوى عالي من الكفاءة. وتبرز اهمية الحاجة الى طرائق التقدير الكفوءة هذه التي تسمى بالطرائق الحصينة (Robust Methods) | Most of researches in the subject of reliability contain clear decrease in the processes of accurate statistical analysis which aims at getting estimators of a high level of efficiency and the important of the necessity to many efficient estimation methods, which are called robust methods, appears when the data of the studied phenomenon are contaminated , it means the observations contains outliers which may produce estimators which result in increasing (decreasing) in the (MSE).A matter which leads to unconfirmed statistical inference.From this point was the goal behind this research in reaching robust estimators of the survival function through studying some robust and classical methods and bayes methods in contaminated weibull distribution , and that is by assuming three levels of contamination. namely,(? = 0 , 0.15 ,0.30 ).Also , a robust method proposed to estimate the survival function for contaminated weibull distribution.In this study , the method of simulation was used to compare between the studied estimation methods of all levels of contamination.In this thesis , the researcher concluded the success of the proposed method in estimating the survival function in comparison with other methods depending on the measures : (IMSE) and (IMAPE) so, the researcher specified a chapter for applying and using the proposed method on real data to estimate the survival function s(t).

استعمال اساليب التنبؤ الاحصائية في تحليل قيم الصادرات النفطية == Using Statistical Forecasting Methods In Analyzing Oil Exports Values

Author name: لينا نضال شوكت
Supervisor name: قتيبة نبيل نايف القزاز
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: درست الباحثة موضوع اقيام الصادرات النفطية العراقية السنوية وللمدة من 1978م ولغاية 2014م بالاعتماد على ثلاث طرائق تحليل احصائية. الاولى، تحليل انموذج الانحدار الخطي المتعدد والتي تتطلب تحديد متغيرات توضيحية مؤثرة في قيم الصادرات النفطية وكانت هذه المتغيرا | The researcher studied the Iraqi Oil Exports Value form 1978 until 2014 using three statistical analysis methods. The first, Analysis of Multiple Linear Regression which requires determining independent variables that affect the Oil Exports Value and these variables were (barrel price and the average daily number of exported barrels). The second, Analysis of Polynomial Models (Growth Curve Model) and this model requires determining the suitable polynomial degree to represent the model as a curve which shows the increase or decrease that occurs in the data under study. And the third method is, Analysis of Time Series using Box - Jenkins models which requires identification of the suitable model and the degree of the model to represent the data. The three models, their equations and the mathematical relationships have been all defined, especially the ones that have been applied on the data.After analyzing the data using gretl and Matlab softwares and treating some problems that may occur to the data and getting the suitable models to represent the Oil Exports Value, in the Multiple Regression Model the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters have been calculated and testing the efficiency of the model and the estimated parameters using F and t tests. And in the Polynomial model, the curve has been estimated and drawn and calculating the confidence intervals of the parameters and the fitted curve and forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting. In the Time Series model, the stationarity in the mean and variance of the series has been tested then identifying the suitable order for the model which was (2,1,3) and testing the independence of the error then forecasting for 6 coming years and calculating the confidence intervals of the forecasting

التحليل الجيبي المتقطع والمويجي المتقطع واستخدامهما في عمليات الاخفاء للصوت والصورة == Discrete Cosine Transform & Discrete Wavelet Transform In The Hiding Process For The Speech And The Image

Author name: ليلى مطر ناصر المحنة
Supervisor name: خميس عواد زيدان
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: للاهمية المتزايدة للتحويلات الرياضية ومدى مساهمتها في حل العديد من المشاكل العلمية، وكذلك موضوع الاخفاء steganography، الذي اخذ مفهومة يتطور واستخدامه يتزايد يوما بعد يوم لما له من اهمية كبيرة في توفير الحصانة والسرية للبيانات الرقمية لاي وسط كانت وكذلك | Because of the increasing of importance of the Mathematical transformation and its solutions for the scientific problems, and also. The steganography which it is develop ,more and more, with its expanding in performing security and Robustness for the digital data for any media and for decreasing the capacity of the Storage and increasing the speed in transmitting and receiving, we use in this thesis the discrete cosine transform and the discrete wavelet transform as a comparative study through the hiding methods, which its applied in the time domain and frequency domain, and applied the statistical term MSE which is always used for comparative, and added another term MAPE as a support term and then calculate the PSNR to measure the quality for the images and sounds after reconstruction depending on the two terms, the colored image are applied because of its high specifications for its large area in the storage through hiding processes, which its depend on the (LSB) method of hiding. And in this thesis it is proposed a methods for designing new coefficients depending on the filters Haar and DB - 4, and the design depended on a mathematical and logical methods, and as an application for the comparative and proposed methods it depended on a sample of (24) persons which we took their images and speeches to apply the Process by hiding the speech through the image for every person, and then applied the transformations depending on the proposed Algorithms, the program is designed by the researcher using Matlab language, and then the comparative applied between the used methods which showed high quality in reconstruction and performed a proposed methods in the security depending on the mathematical transform and not only on the methods of cyphering for data through hiding and this methods for cyphering the mathematical transform give a high robustness for hiding data.

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير دالة المعولية الضبابية == Compared To Some of The Methods of Estimating Fuzzy Reliability Function

Author name: ليث فاضل سيد حسين النعيمي
Supervisor name: انتصار عريبي فدعم الدوري
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: عند احتساب اوقات الفشل للمكائن والمعدات نلاحظ بانها تكون غير مؤكدة او ضبابية في اغلب الاحيان وعلى اساس المركبة او النظام لهذا تناولت هذه الرسالة تقدير دالة المعولية الضبابية في حالة المركبة والانظمة المفردة (المتسلسلة والمتوازية) وباستعمال ثلاث طرائق هي : | When calculating the failure times of the machines and equipment note that it is fuzzy or uncertain in more often on the basis of the component or system to this paper this estimate fuzzy reliability function in the component case and series and parallel system by using three methods are : First, the conventional method : Under this method has been used the failure function and a new membership function of beta type be more flexible in statistical applications, according to this method was derived estimators fuzzy reliability function for series and parallel systems. Second, The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) based on the confidence limits : one of the methods in which based on in estimation on the mean and standard deviation of the times of the failure of the machinery and equipment and give fuzzy reliability function estimate both serial and parallel systems confidence limits are to be used to fuzzy numbers two levels (1 - ?, 1 - ?).Third, the Signed distance method : good methods that give estimating fuzzy reliability function for both systems are similar to estimate the point.That the methods above give estimate reliability Blur function for both systems was a comparison between the advantage of these capabilities and employ the style of simulation manner Monte Carlo (Monte - Carlo) by writing software language application (Matlab) and the experiences and sizes of different samples and both systems were relying on mean square error (MSE) of the comparison between the estimation methods Vtm reach a predestined way normal preference, showing through the mean square error (MSE) that showed a nuance in between estimator ways : how many The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) and the way the Signed distance method of the fact that the way The number fuzzy method (A ) ?(i - v) level (1 - ?, 1 - ?) based at its sole discretion to Tabulated values of the distribution (t) and that way the distance indicator based on the indicators way above, for this from the perspective of the researcher, all estimation methods are considered good and can be used in the approved equipment and machinery in their production productive companies.In the practical side researcher has used real data for the purpose of estimating reliability function of the system and fuzzy sequential function reliability of the system parallel Blur, adopted by the General Company for Electrical Industries of the Ministry of Industry and Minerals in Baghdad records.

الدمج بين الطرائق الاعتيادية والغلاف الطيفي بالتحويلات للاستقرارية باعتماد القطع والنافذة المثلى

Author name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
Supervisor name: عبد المجيد حمزة الناصر
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد استخدام الغلاف الطيفي لتحويل السلاسل غير المستقرة الى سلاسل مستقرة من الطرائق الحديثة اذ اقترحها الباحث Stoffer واخرون خلال العقد الاخير من القرن الماضي. والطريقة المستخدمة سابقا تعتمد التحويل الذي يعطي اقل البواقي. ولتلافي السلبيات التي تكتنف الطري | The use of the Spectral Envelope to transform non - stationary series to stationary series is considered as recent method. It is suggested by Stoffer ~ at el. through the last ten years of the past century. The method previously used depends on the transformation, which gives minimum residual. And to overcome the disadvantages that surround these two methods we saw that the best is to combine between them. Since the spectral density function of the transformed series needs to be smoothed, so we began to study the best smoothing window and to know the optimum truncation point by using two criteria, absolute and relative, for compression between the two the windows and the truncation points

مقارنة بعض طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط من الرتبة الاولى باستخدام المحاكاة == Comparison Some Parameters Estimation Methods For Mixed Model of Low Order Using Simulation

Author name: لمياء محمد علي البدراني
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Doctorate
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى دراسة طرائق تقدير معلمات الانموذج المختلط (الانحدار الذاتي - الوسط المتحرك) (Stationary Autoregressive - Moving Average Model) المستقر من الرتبة الاولى ARMA(1,1) مع دراسة الحالات الخاصة له، وهي : ARMA(1,0), ARMA(0,1) دراسة نظرية وتجريبية با | This thesis aims to studying the parameters estimation methods of the stationary mixed model (autoregressive - moving average) of low order ARMA(1,1) with the special cases of it which are : ARMA(1,0) and ARMA(0,1) in regard to time domain analysis in univariate time series.Using Exact maximum likelihood estimation methods (EML) and the approximating methods : backforecasting (BF) and Conditional least square (CLS) beside Moment method (M.M) with suggested conditional method (SC) and alternative method for moment method of ARMA(0,1) model. Driven some estimators for some special model.A comparison is done among the different methods by using criteria : mean square error (MSE) , mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and average absolute error (AAE) and using several simulation experiments ,and iterating each experiments(1000) times, The results it found that the (EML) is better and more efficient than others. From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign and moment estimator for ARMA(1,1) model that is : when the sign is positive means the root gives invertable model and when the sign is negative means the root gives invertable model. The thesis consisted of four chapters, The first chapter contained introduction and literature review. The second chapter discussed the deferent estimation methods, The third chapter contained the experimental part using simulation for different sample sizes of series. It had been arrived at some conclusions and recommendations were consisting the fourth chapter

تحليل التباين المركب لمجموعة تجارب متشابهة في القطاع الزراعي == Combind Analysis of Variance For Similar Experiments Group In The Agricultural Sector

Author name: كاظم يحيى عبد الحسين
Supervisor name: كمال علوان خلف المشهداني
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Master
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: the interaction (treatments X locations , treatments X years , 1. In the statistical sight, the aim is to test the significance of of this method of analysis is : in more than one location and in more than one year too. The aimreplicated in more than one location or period (year) or replicated sector. It means making analysis of variance for experiments that important in different sides of the life, specially in the agricultural The combined analysis of variance method is regarded as a verytreatments X locations X years ). plot experiment that conducted by (CRD , LSD) expanding by the researcher the case of (CRD , LSD) and Split - (RCBD , and Split - plot by RCBD), The study also include The combined analysis of variance was studied for the designsmost suitable environment conditions. true decision that represented by planting the type in the (included locations and agricultural seasons) , then making a many types of a pointed plant for environment conditions2. In agricultural sight , the aim is to test the suitability of experiment increase. that appeared as the value of decrease, the accuracy of the ,one for LSD and the other for Split - plot using LSD. The results using simulation manner and writing two programs for this aimconducted by LSD and by Split - plot using LSD , that led to Because of there is no available data for actually experiments appeared the significant effects.means of the factors and for the means of the interactions that them, the multiple comparisons were done (using Lsd) for the for the significance of the factors and for the interactions between A different results were appeared from experiment to anotherwas done by using Genstat program. homogeneity of variances using statgraph program, the analysis conducted by RCBD, and then after making Bartlett test for conducted by RCBD and another experiments by Split - plot In applications we have got the data of actually experiments

استعمال السلاسل الزمنية والشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية للتنبؤات المستقبلية لمستوى التضخم في العراق == The Use of Time Series And Neural Network Prediction Futurism Level Swelling In Iraq

Author name: قصي عصام حميد الزبيدي
Supervisor name: قاسم محمد علي
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: لقد شهد الاقتصاد العراقي ارتفاعات مستمرة ومتزايدة في معدلات التضخم والتي وصلت الى مستوى التضخم الجامح مما اثرت على نمط الانتاج والاستثمار والاستهلاك والادخار ونمط تخصيص الموارد وتوزيع الدخل، نتيجة للظروف القاسية التي مر بها العراق وقد استعملت وسائل احصائ | It is known that the most important countries of evolution is the process of planning and the detailed plans the future and this requires the adoption of advanced statistical methods.We discussed this adopts the first focus method of time series Box - Jenkins and which takes into account the temporal variations in the study of phenomena, analyze and identify the most important properties in the construction of appropriate models of the phenomenon being studied, as has been the adoption of key stages in building models of chains of time from diagnosis until the development of the form timely and predictable phenomenon studied.Second, neural networks and included the study of this simplified the basic concepts of neural networks He addressed the most important types of neural networks is a network deployment rear (Back Propagation) algorithms and their own learning.The practical side has been the use of real data to calculate the rate of inflation based on the indices for commodity groups for a period of five years by months(2007 - 2011) Based on the results of time series Box - Jenkins and neural networks shows that the method of artificial neural networks more flexible and higher efficiency in the analysis and forecasting

الاثار الاجتماعية والاقتصادية للفقر في العراق : دراسة مقارنة == The Social And Economic Impacts of Poverty In Iraq A Contrastive Study

Author name: قصي عبد الفتاح رؤوف
Supervisor name: مهدي محسن اسماعيل العلاق
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر دراسة الفقر وتحليل مؤشراته ومحدداته، من القضايا المهمة بالنسبة للعراق الذي يهدف الى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية بصورة اكثر واقعية.لذلك اختار الباحث هذا البحث وبالاستعانة ببيانات المسح الاجتماعي والاقتصادي للاسرة في العراق الذي نفذ خلال الس | The present study deals with the most important issue which is of critical significance in Iraq - poverty - and its analysis, indications and determines since it tries to achieve the social and economic growth and development in a realistic way. The researcher selects this subject by depending on the social and economic data survey of the household in Iraq which is carried out in 2007 by the central organization of statistics and its subsequent building poverty line based on these data by using (spss) to arrive at the social and economic variables of direct impact on the poverty level. The indications of poverty in Iraq show that the poverty rate comes to 23% and this rate is centered in the rural increasingly than the urban since the poverty rate comes 39% and 16% respectively these indications also show that the size of poor household comes to 9.5 person and for other households 6.3 persons. The illiteracy ratio comes to (25 - 15) years among the poor - 27.1 %. The ratio of those primary school leavers or school - Not Joiners comes to 25 - 2% while other than poor households comes to 11 - 6% As for intermediate school poor - Joiners, the ratio comes to 79.5 % - the results show that 24% of those poor drink undrinkable water. The unemployment ratio for those adults whose age ranging from 15 and more 15% The Results also show that the Average of individuals, monthly Salary for those poor comes to 87 thousand Iraqi dinar while other's Salaries come to 149 thousand Iraqi dinars. The major differences between the a group of poor people and a group of Non - Poor people on the one hand, and on the other hand the main differences between poor people and non - poor people in cities and country sides for more than 20 variables by (T Test). The researcher comes to the fact that there are nine variable of different meaning - which are as follows : the Average of Household size, the ratio illiteracy, the ratio of non - advantage of health care during the period of pregnancy, the ratio of bachelorhood, the ratio of non - having drinkable water, the Average of individual's monthly salary, the Average of individual's monthly expenditure, the ratio of unemployment, Loans ratio to meet the needs of consuming families. The researcher uses the factor analysis to analyze the relationship among the nine Variables to come to the main factors that affect the level of poverty. The researcher also uses the cluster analysis and transferring the nine Variable data into the standard formula to eliminate the difference of measuring units of these Variables and consequently ensuring the Validity of carrying out the process of classifying the data and determining the relationship among factors in terms of similarity and differences and then going in to the clustering method and analyzation together with the way of comparison by means of Box plot which shows the symmetry of data inside the Variable
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