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تطوير السياحة الدينية في كربلاء المقدسة من منظور ستراتيجي : دراسة حالة == Developing The Religious Tourism In The Holy City of Karbala From A Strategic Perspective

Author name: علي زاير كاظم
Supervisor name: لورنس يحيى صالح
Specific topic: Strategic Planning
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: هدف هذا البحث الى التعرف على دور المنظور الاستراتيجي في تطوير السياحة الدينية في كربلاء المقدسة وذلك باعتماد التخطيط الاستراتيجي كاسلوب عمل مع تنامي التحديات التي تواجه قطاع السياحة بشكل عام والسياحة الدينية بشكل خاص,اذ تعد السياحة نشاطا ضروريا للشعوب للع | This research aimed to identify the strategic perspective role in developing the religious tourism in the holy city of karbala by adopting Strategic Planning as an approach to confront the growing challenges that face the whole tourism sector generally, and the religious tourism specially. Since that Tourism has long been considered a necessary activity for all nations for many reasons like its direct impact in the economic, social and cultural sectors in addition to its impact in the international relations. The researcher has strived to study the tourism state of Karbala, and to study what this holy city have from features for the religious tourism which are represented by the holy shrines, with a survey for the most important obstacles that tries to overcome the religious tourism in karbala, those very obstacle that can be said that can be said that no strategy can develop the religious tourism without overcoming them first, by concerted efforts of all parties (the country ministries& entities with direct and indirect relation). The research also makes a simple comparison with the tourism state in Saudi Arabia, especially in the holy cities of Mecca and Al - Madina in order to take as much advantage from this experiment through number of variations. The industry of tourism is an industry of front &back correlations that does not succeed but with coordination and integration of all parties involved, and it is based on the foundations that can be represented by the services of (security, lodgings, transportation, high - competence human resources, etc.), and for this reason it is needed to set a strategy that draws the image of the religious tourism (what is should be, the way it can be accomplished, and its future) which was articulated in chapter three of this research. For that, the research has came up with an attempt to put the religious tourism in the right path through a strategy that develops it, and by following the art of strategic planning as an integrated approach for tourism, starting with the strategic analysis of the external and internal environment and then formulation the organization vision and mission, and the inspiring the strategic goals from the organization mission, them putting the goals into action according to the agreed priorities. and by determining of the alternatives, the selection was made to take one of the growth strategies which is the strategic vertical integration for the interrelated activities as a main strategy, and selecting the alliances strategy as a strategic alternative, and then working by the empowerment strategy simultaneously in order to develop the human resources that is considered as the basis of religious tourism development, then moving to the process of formulation and implementation and strategic control, then passing to the process of feedback that is indispensable in all the stages of the strategy, that enables the higher administration to update the vision as well updating all the strategy stages according to the variables. The research finally reached clear and important results and facts that prove the study hypothesis is correct.

توقعات الطلب المستقبلي للسياحة الدينية فـي محافظتي النجف الاشرف وكربلاء المقدسة == Expectations of Future Demand For Religious Tourism In The Provinces of Najaf And Karbla

Author name: علي حمد الله احمد
Supervisor name: محمد جاسم محمد
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: من الواضح ان من اهم عمليات تطور الدول هي عملية التخطيط ووضع الخطط المستقبلية وهذا يتطلب اعتماد الاساليب الاحصائية المتقدمة , ومن اهم هذه الاساليب هي طرائق تحليل السلاسل الزمنية والتي تاخذ بالحسبان التغيرات الزمنية في دراسة الظواهر وعليه تم استعمال الانوا | It's acknowledged that planning and setting of foreseen & detailed plans are from the important operations to countries development which requires advanced statistical methods adoption. One of the important methods are the way of time series analysis which depends on time changes in studying phenomena. According to that different types of time series patterns & it`s analysis undertaken , recognizing the most important specifications in build up suitable patterns for studied phenomenon where basic phases adopted in building up patterns related to time series and beginning with identification ,setting of suitable pattern & studied phenomenon forecasting. The true data used for four types of Variables of a number of hotels, number of rooms, number of guests the Iraqis, the number of guests for each of the Iraqi province of Najaf and Karbala province respectively and take the data to time series form 1981 - 2010، was diagnosed using a model AR (1) in the prediction for the years 2011 - 2015

نحو تعزيز دور التعليم المهني في العراق == Towards Strengthening The Role of Vocational Education In Iraq

Author name: علاء صباح كاظم
Supervisor name: محمد احمد حمد
Specific topic: Strategic Planning
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:

دراسة اسباب عزوف المواطنين من اجراء العمليات في المستشفيات الحكومية والتوجه الى القطاع الخاص == A Study On The Reluctance of Citizens To Conduct Operations In Governmental Hospitals And Conducting Them In The Private Sector

Author name: علاء حبيب عبد الرحمن
Supervisor name: ناظم جواد عبد سلمان الزيدي
Specific topic: Hospital Management
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يهدف البحث الى دراسة اسباب عزوف المواطنين من اجراء العمليات جراحية في المستشفيات الحكومية والتوجه الى المستشفيات في القطاع الخاص ولغرض معرفة الاسباب وتشخيصها وتحليلها فقد تم اختيار عدد من المستشفيات الخاصة العاملة في بغداد وبجانبي الكرخ والرصافة وبالشكل ا | This research aims to study the reasons for the reluctance of citizens from having surgical operations in governmental hospitals and their desire to go to hospitals in the private sector. To know the causes and their analysis, a number of private hospitals operating in Baghdad in both Karkh and Rusafa has been selected as follows : • Rusafa : Jarrah Hospital, Hayat Al Rahibat Hospital, Mostanserya Hospital. Bunuk Hospital, Rahibat Hospital, Dijlah Hospital, Firdos Rahibat Hospital, Baghdad Hospital.• Karkh : Meserra Hospital, Dhergham Hospital, Kadhumya Hospital. Patients who had various surgeries were interviewed, and their views and opinions were taken via a checklist which has been prepared for this purpose. 65 patients were reached, statistical data were processed through calculation frequencies, means, and percentages to know the answers of the sample of patients about the reasons of their reluctance. A set of conclusions were reached, among which : The citizens felt weakness in the performance and responsiveness of staffs in governmental hospitals, the surgeons behavior in private hospitals was more appropriate, respectful, and humane than that in governmental hospitals, the private hospital staff can better handle the patients' emotions.

دراسة احصائية عن العوامل المؤثرة على التضخم في العراق == A Statistical Study On The Factors Affecting Inflation In Iraq

Author name: عطا كريم محمود العامري
Supervisor name: محمود مهدي حسن البياتي
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان هذا البحث يهدف الى اظهار اهم العوامل والمتغيرات المؤثرة على التضخم في العراق من خلال دراسة عدد من المتغيرات وتحليلها احصائيا باستعمال اسلوبين من التحليل حيث تم استعمال اسلوب التحليل العاملي من خلال استعمال (15) متغير اذ يعتبر هذا الاسلوب من اساليب الت | This research aims to show the most important factors and variables affecting inflation in Iraq through the study of a number of variables and analyzed statistically using the two methods of analysis where the use of the style factor analysis through the use of (15) variable, as is the technique of analysis methods of modern, in addition to using multiple regression approach for the purpose of formulating a model statistically appropriate to predict inflation rates and determine the most important variables affecting it. As it ensures Find four seasons, has included the first chapter the research methodology and previous studies, while the second chapter included the theoretical side of research and was Bembgesan, Section I T_khassalganb theoretical your style factor analysis and its importance and methods of factor analysis with a focus on how the major components, while the second section has included the theoretical regression to the style of its details. It included the third quarter the practical side was Bembgesan, specialty section first application of the style factor analysis and analysis of the structure of the links, either second section has included the use of style gradient to reach the best model regression expresses the relationship between the most important variables illustrations (Independent) and variable adopted, which represents inflation, in addition to the possibility of the use of the model in futureforecasts. .The fourth quarter has included the most important conclusions that have been reached, as well as ensure that the recommendations. Has been the most important conclusions that the average daily exports of crude oil is the most influential on the rates of inflation and this is what led to be one of the important recommendations in the research is to increase exports of crude oil at the present time for the purpose of reducing inflation as the inverse relationship between inflation and average daily crude oil exports, in addition to that it was important recommendations is the diversity of sources of revenue without relying on crude oil imports note that it requires a long period of time.

تطوير العلاقة الستراتيجية بين الجهات المختصة في مكافحة الفساد

Author name: عصام صادق عبود
Supervisor name: سناء عبد الرحيم سعيد العبادي
Specific topic: Strategic Planning
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: اتجهت العديد من الدول في العالم العصري الى بناء وانشاء اجهزة متخصصة في مكافحة الفساد الى جانب دورها الذي لا يقل اهمية وهو تنفيذ حملات توعية عامة ليتمكن من تثقيف المجتمع ويجنبه الوقوع في الفساد وكذلك في الابلاغ عن الفاسدين الذين يسعون دائما الى تطوير امكان

تقييم نشاط العلاقات العامة في المجالس المحلية : دراسة ميدانية في مجلس محافظة بغداد == Assess The Activity of Public Relations In Local Councils A Field Study In The Baghdad Provincial Council

Author name: عذراء كامل ولي
Supervisor name: علي حسون فندي الطائي
Specific topic: Local Administration
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: عرضت هذه الدراسة (( تقييم نشاط العلاقات العامة في المجالس المحلية )) وظيفة حيوية وظاهرة ادارية معاصرة وهي العلاقات العامة، والتي لها دور كبير في تحسين الخدمات المقدمة للجمهور المحلي، واعتمدت على المنهج الاستطلاعي والبيانات المالية في مجلس محافظة بغداد و| Offered this study ((assess the activity of public relations in local councils)) function vital administrative and the phenomenon of contemporary, a public relations, which have a significant role in improving the services provided to local audiences, and adopted the curriculum exploratory financial statements in the Baghdad provincial council and the most important administrative decisions in the field of activity public relations for the years 2012, 2013.2014, because of the importance in creating an atmosphere of communication between senior management and internal audience (employees) and external (the beneficiaries of its services within the geographical area), where there are weak and limited in public relations activities in the local councils and Activity public relations at the Baghdad Provincial Council as a study environment need to be evaluated and audited because of the importance in creating an atmosphere of communication and contact between the administration and the public, and derive the importance of research through the role played by the local councils in Iraq in general and Baghdad Provincial Council, in particular, because of its of the life of the community impact in addition to the importance of the study by providing scientific breakthrough for senior management in Baghdad Provincial Council, the problems of the management of public relations and the prospects for development.The research has come to a set of recommendations including : 1. There are no specialized department takes on the responsibility for the basic functions of public relations and the preparation of plans and its impact negatively on the ongoing efforts of the Council in this area.2. There are no pre - action plans prepared by the Division of Public Relations take upon themselves the responsibility to identify aspects of the work towards achieving the objectives of this vital and important activity in the Baghdad Provincial Council in the light of available resources.3. financial allocations granted to the public relations work in the Council's budget distributed is not commensurate with what the Council of the vital role of multiple activities, one of the difficulties facing the work of the Committee on Relations and Media in the Council.Was reached a set of recommendations including the establishment of the Department of Public Relations Specialist actively takes upon himself all the administrative, scientific and information functions and the allocation of the necessary funds consists of people covering all public relations activities have been integrated organizational structure proposal to him

استعمال بعض نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ بمحصول الرز في بعض مناطق الوسط والجنوب في العراق == Use Some Time - Series Models To Predict Rice Production In Some Middle And South Areas In Iraq For The Period (1969 - 2014

Author name: عدويه حسن يوسف الطائي
Supervisor name: غفران اسماعيل كمال
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: في هذا البحث تم ايجاد الانموذج الافضل لانتاجية محصول الرز للمحافظات ( ذي قار - النجف - القادسية - المثنى - ميسان ) خلال المدة ( 1969 - 2014 ) باستعمال نماذج بوكس جنكنز(Box - Jenkins) ومن ثم التنبؤ بانتاجية الرز, حيث تم فحص وتشخيص بيانات السلسلة الزمنية من | The research aims to find the best model the agricultural production of crop for some Iraqi governorates ( Najaf - Qadisiya - Maysan - DhiQar - Muthanna ) during the period ( 1969 - 2014 ) applying Statistical methods used in forecasting time series models as Box - Jenkins method, of tests to identify the existence of stationary,estimation has been studied and included the using of maximum likelihood estimation method, as well as studying the Diagnostic checking using a number of tests to define the scope of models relevancy that has been estimated for the data examined by depend on confidence interval test and Ljung and Box ,then forecasting for the production of rice crop for the years ( 2015 - 2025 ) , chosen for the province of Najaf and Qadisiya is ARIMA ( 1 , 1 , 1 ) , while the model chosen for the provinces ( DhiQar, Muthanna , Maysan ) is the AR ( 1 ) , by depend on Akaike information criterion (AIC), Hannan Quinn information criterion (H - Q),The significance of the estimated parameters of the model.

استعمال بعض الاساليب الاحصائية للتنبؤ بانتاج محصول الشلب في العراق للمدة (2025 - 2016) == Some Use Statistical Methods To Predict The Yield of Rice Production In Iraq (2016 - 2025)

Author name: عبير محمود جاسم
Supervisor name: احمد ذياب احمد العزاوي
Specific topic: Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد القطاع الزراعي من القطاعات المهمة في عملية البناء الاقتصادي والاجتماعي في بلدان العالم المختلفة وان على الزراعة ان تسد حاجة السكان من الغذاء حتى يتحقق الامن الغذائي.ويعد محصول الشلب من المحاصيل الصيفية المهمة التي تزرع في المناطق المروية من وسط وجنوب | The agricultural sector of the important sectors in the process of economic and social reconstruction in the different countries of the world and on agriculture to meet the needs of the population of food so food security is achieved. The rice crop of the important summer crops grown in irrigated areas of central and southern Iraq, one of the important crops in food intake in Iraq depends upon the Iraqi individual in the food and meals. This research aims to predict the production of rice crop in Iraq for the period (from 2016 to 2025) through the time - series models using the Box and Jenkins models, which requires diagnosing the appropriate model and appropriate grade for this model to represent the phenomenon studied and based on annual data for the period analyzed (from 1975 to 2015), which was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. After analyzing the data using statistical software gretl and address some of the problems that could have exposed the data and obtain the appropriate models to represent the production of rice, and in the model of the time series were tested stability of the chain in terms of both the contrast and the Mediterranean have shown results of the analysis after the trade - offs between Box and Jenkins models for series production of rice the adoption of standard Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the standard Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) and standard Hannan - Quinn (H - Q) to be after that model representative for the production of rice crop in Iraq is ARIMA (2,1,2) and test the independence of the wrong paradigm and then predict for the years (2016 - 2025).

استعمال التحليل العنقودي لبيان تغير نمط الانفاق في العراق للسنوات (1971 - 2010)

Author name: عبير عباس ناصر
Supervisor name: لميعة باقر جواد الجواد
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد الانفاق احد اهم المتغيرات الاقتصادية الاساسية وذلك لارتباطه بمتغيرات اقتصادية اخرى كالانتاج والادخار والدخل والاستثمار حسب مفهوم النظرية الاقتصادية اذ ان ارتفاع مستوى الانفاق يؤدي الى انخفاض مستوى الادخار ومعدلات الاستثمار والانتاجية والدخل، وبحثنا | The spending one of the most important variables and that is related to other economic variables such as production, income, saving and investment rates, productivity and incomes , we discussed this chang shows the spending pattern of families on key goods and services during the period (1971 - 2010) in the years where date are available ,so touched on the reality of living standards for families in Iraq by offering stylish rates on good and services(nine variable according to the system of national accounts) and on the levels(both urban and rural, urban only, rural only)during the period for the purpose of knowing how spending patterns change up or down, have been analyzed on the basis of thes ratios homogeneity or convergence in spending between years using cluster analysis hierarchy in three different wayse (the way the middle, the way the closest ,how far)and clarification of thes percentages in the graph at the level of years each service key once (to see the change in the pattern of spending on the services each during the time period) and at the level of basic services per year again(to see the change in the spending on different services per year)which may help to develop future plans for the advancement of thes families to decent life for these families.

متطلبات الشراكة بين القطاعين العام والخاص لانجاح نظام الاحالة الطبية في العراق : دراسة حالة لواقع وافاق التطوير == The Requirement of The Partnership Between The Public And Private Sectors In The Success of The Medical Referral System In Iraq

Author name: عبد الكريم صادق كريم
Supervisor name: ناظم جواد عبد سلمان الزيدي
Specific topic: Hospital Management
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تهدف الدراسة الى معرفة قبول الشراكة بين القطاعين العام والخاص لنظام الاحالة الطبية لانجاحه في العراق. والشراكة في بحثنا هذا هي الالية اللازمة لتدعيم ركائز كلا القطاعين بهدف تامين المجتمع بالخدمات الصحية التي تتسم بالكلفة المنخفضة والجودة والكفاءة العالية | The study aims to learn to accept partnership between the public and private sectors of the medical referral system to make it successful in Iraq and partnership in our present mechanism is needed to strengthen the pillars of both sectors in order to secure community health service that are low cost, quality and high efficiency and a competitive incentive for the public health sector in the light of natural increase of the population, hence the idea of studying the partnership between the public and private sectors in the success of the medical referral system in Iraq in order to change the traditional methods used in the system of assignment and no longer able to meet the needs of patients , as the system is the assignment of the basic elements of health care in the provision of equal opportunities for all segments of society, which need a global scale, and identified the problem of search to identify the most important reasons that lead to a system of partnership between public and private sectors to address the failure to medical referrals and the low level of quality a laip health relied on a collection of information theory and organized according to the method of analysis practical in field data collection using a questionnaire exploratory court has been applied in government and private hospitals, the most important conclusions reached in that the system services of the assignment is suffering from a lack of promotional activities and outreach to the general community and the existence of a shortage of professional staff in the necessary and potential administrative and regulatory and non - use of the means of modern technology and advance communications in the transfer of data and information , and also that the partnership have a positive effect to improve the medical service and reduce the momentum happening in hospitals and specialized centers and reduce the financial burden on the state and strengthen the competition between the private and the sharing of risks between them, while the most important recommendation is the need to strengthen primary health centers workers specialized sufficient equipment and modern equipment will help to achieve provision of quality and efficient for patients and the need for an electronic database form for the assignment and go to encourage the private sector to participate with the public sector, which serves to reduce the costs for the state and the transfer of modern technology and raise the level of quality in health care, and issue a binding law by the state in partnership with the private sector and government facilities to the success of the partnership between the two sectors

دور الرقابة والتدقيق الداخلي للحد من ظاهـرة الفساد الاداري في مستشفيات دائرة صحة بغداد - الرصافة : دراسة استطلاعية

Author name: عبد الزهرة خضر حيدر الساعدي
Supervisor name: صبيحة قاسم هاشم الموسوي
Specific topic: Hospital Management
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مشكلة البحث تتجسد الى افتقار قسم الرقابة والتدقيق الداخلي الى نظام لتقويم اداءها ليعكس جوانب الاداء فيها، وافتقارها الى امكانية الحد من المخالفات والتجاوزات في المؤسسات الصحيــــة لضعف كوادر القسم من حيث المؤهلات العلمية والعملية وبالتالي هذا يؤدي الى الح

اهمية الرقابة على مشروعية العقود الحكومية في محافظة ميسان == The Importance of Control On Government Contracts Legality In Maissan Province

Author name: عبد الزهره حسين نجم العطواني
Supervisor name: فضيلة سلمان داوود
Specific topic: Economy
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد الرقابة على مشروعية العقود الحكومية احدى الوظائف التي تمارسها الادارة والتي ترتبط ارتباطا وثيق الصلة بالعملية الادارية وتعد في الوقت نفسه الاداة الفعالة لتحقيق الاهداف التي تسعى المؤسسات الحكومية لتحقيقها والمتمثلة في اشباع الحاجات العامة، كما ان نظ | Control system on government contracts is considered as one of the most important functions conducted by the management, which is tightly linked to supervising on the management processes in away helps the government corporate achieve its strategic objectives. Control system on the management processes is considered as well as a reflective mirror to the quality of the work done by the management.The control system on the government contracts points out any defected or legally breached actions which helps the management to modify it through uncovering the deviations happening away from the path of the corporate strategic or operational plans and sheds light on the causes and proposes solutions to deal with them. The control system helps in making sure that the financial actions match the valid authorities, regulations and instructions and ensures that the authorities granted to the management are not used negatively or unfairly. It makes sure are as well that that management is not overriding the individuals rights and freedoms because the main purpose of these authorities is helping the management conducts its tasks and functions smoothly. Based on the above, the researcher chose - through the practical side of the research sample - to study everything related to the government contracting activity administratively, technically and legally in order to : • Determine the supervisory role on the legality of the government contracts. • Identify control system's ability to cease the administrative and financial corruption phenomenon. • The direct impact of the control system in guiding the management decisions to be within the framework drawn to it by the law and the constitutionThe researcher relied on a set of reports and resources that helped him to a bunch of important conclusions and recommendations, such as : • The poor performance of the internal control devices of the government corporate may cause in a lot of financial mistakes. • The poor performance of the internal control devices of the government corporate may result in the emergence of corruption, which leads to a lack of accountability means which is related to the financial irregularities.• Inaccuracy in preparing projects' cost estimation which leads to the public money waste. • Accuracy should be considered as much as possible in order to achieve the targeted objectives. • The justice in distributing the financial allocations among the administrative units enhances trust in the control system devices.

ستراتيجية تطوير الموارد البشرية وانعكاسها على جودة الخدمات البلدية : دراسة حالة في مديرية بلدية كربلاء المقدسة == Strategic Human Resource Development And Its Reflecting On Quality Municipality Service Case Study In Directorate of Municipalities In Holy Karbala

Author name: عباس مزهر عاكول الشبلاوي
Supervisor name: صبيحة قاسم هاشم الموسوي
Specific topic: Municipal Administration
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تناولت الدراسة " ستراتيجية تطوير الموارد البشرية وانعكاسها على جودة الخدمات البلدية" حيث يحظى هذان المتغيران باهتمام الباحثين بشكل متزايد كونهما مفهومان حديثان نسبيا ولكونهما من المواضيع المهمة والتي لها تاثير كبير على مستقبل المنظمات. تهدف الدراسة الى | The study aims at expounding the correlation and effect between the Human resource development strategy and Quality Municipality Service within a theoretical framework and a practical framework conducted at Directorate of Municipalities in holy Karbala. The researcher found during a pilot study that there isn’t enough care paid by the Directorate of Municipalities in developing its human resources using one strategy or a number of strategies and their effect on the Quality Municipality Service. Thus a number of research questions were set concerning the existence of clear perception in the Directorates of Municipalities concerning the strategies of developing both the human resource an Quality Municipality Service and the correlation and effect between them.A number of hypotheses were set within a hypothetical model in order to investigate the correlation and effect between the explanatory variable (human resource development strategy) and the reactive variable (Quality Municipality Service) in the study form to collect the data from Directorates of Municipalities and later analyzing the data using the statistical software (SPSS). The study concluded a number of conclusions that indicated a significant correlation between the study variables based. The results also showed a significant effect of human resource development strategy on the Quality Municipality Service. Based on the results, the study recommended a number of recommendations

التنبؤ بحركة الطرود البريدية الصادرة والواردة باستعمال نماذج بوكس وجينكنز == Forecasting The Movement of Incoming And Outcoming Postal Parcels Using Box - Jenkins Models

Author name: عباس دوين عنكوش
Supervisor name: اسماء غالب جابر الراوي
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: مما لاشك فيه ان للتنبؤ دورا مهما وبارزا في عملية اتخاذ القرارات التي ترسم مسار الادارات والهيئات لما له من نتائج ذات فاعلية لاحتوائه على مجموعة من الطرائق والاساليب الاحصائية ومنها طرائق تحليل السلاسل الزمنية واسلوب بوكس وجينكز احدها والذي يعتمد على ت | There is no doubt that prediction has an important and prominent role in the decision - making process, which charts the course departments and agencies, because of its effective results, which has it contains a set of methods and techniques (statistical and Mathematical), and one of this techniques is (Box - Jenkins) modes Postal parcels are stacked goods, its weight might be bigger than small packages. Postal parcels are specified in kilograms, and it doesn’t weight more than twenty - kilogram, and wrapped securely, its also doesn’t contain personal documents. This research aims to predict the movement of incoming and outcoming postal parcels through the modeling of the data used by using (Box - Jenkins) models, and for the time period from January (2009) to December (2014). This research, made a time - series analysis to the Weights and the numbers of sent and received postal parcels, therefore, the best model have been chosen depending on the appropriate trade - offs used standards, and the test results showed that the best model of the four series is ARIMA (0,1,1), depending on the trade - offs standards (MDL), (SBC), (HQ), and upon these results, the conclusions and recommendations were made

اثر الانماط القيادية في ادوار الصحة والسلامة المهنية : دراسة استطلاعية في مستشفيات دائرة صحة بغداد الرصافة == The Effect of Leadership Styles On The Role of Occupational Health And Safety

Author name: عباس حسين جميل
Supervisor name: عباس علي ظاهر العامري
Specific topic: Hospital Management
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعد القيادة جوهر العملية الادارية وهي المعيار الذي يتحدد في ضوءه نجاح او فشل اي منظمة او تنظيم، والقائد يحتاج الى المام واسع وتفهم عميق للبيئة والظروف المحيطة وتاثيرها على المنظمة التي يقودها، ولابد ان يكون اثر القيادة واضحا بعد بيان وتحديد مكونات ادوار | Leadership is the fundamental manageal operation and criterion by which the success or failure of any organization or system is determined. The leader needs a wide inspiration and a deep understanding of the effect of work environmental and conditions on the organization that he leads.The effect of leadership should be clear while the leader recognizes and determines the constitutes and dimensions of the roles of the occupational health and safety , so that the leader might be able to create and prepare a safe and stable work environment which would give positive social and economic results to the organization.The problem of the study can be summarized in the effect of different leadership styles is not clear concerning the roles of leadership , and in the most common leadership styles in the health organization. The impertinence of this study arises from the rarity of the previous studies which were done about the same subject.The samples of this study were x - ray unit managers at Baghdad health office - Al - Rusafa which involved 24 (twenty four) hospital including a wide geographical area so that to obtain more precise and accurate information to enrich the study.This study depended upon the hypothesis which says that (the leadership style has an influence on the roles of occupational health and safety ).The Conclusions and recommendations obtained from the study were based on theoretical field. The most important conclusion was the poor effect of leadership styles of the research sample in general, on the roles of occupational health

السياسة الوطنية لمعالجة النزوح : دراسة تحليلة نحو سياسة عامة معدلة

Author name: عامر عباس زغير
Supervisor name: علي موات الصيهود السوداني
Specific topic: Strategic Planning
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد النزوح من ابرز الاثار التي تنتج عن الكوارث الطبيعية او الكوارث التي من صنع الانسان ولكلا الحالتين يبرز نزوحا" في بعض الاحيان مسيطر عليه واغلب الاحيان غير مسيطر عليه كما حصل في العراق وبالاخص في النزوح المفاجيء بعد تفجيرات الامامين العسكريين (ع) او

ادارة ملف المفقودين العراقيين باستخدام قاعدة بيانات الطب العدلي (FDMS) == Management of Iraqi Missing Persons File Using Forensic Database Management System (FDMS)

Author name: عامر جبار زغير
Supervisor name: عبد الناصر علك حافظ
Specific topic: Strategic Planning
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يعد ملف المفقودين في العراق من الملفات الانسانية الشائكة والحساسة والتي لا يمكن تجاهلها او التهاون في التعامل معها لما لها من نتائج سلبية ووخيمة في حياة الانسان بشكل مباشر, مع تضاعف اعداد هذه الشرائح الاجتماعية بعد ان استكمل الارهاب الاسود ما بدا به النظا | The file of missing persons in Iraq is a thorny and sensitive humanitarian file, that could not be ignored or tolerated, due to it's direct negative and adverse results on human life, with the increased numbers of those social groups after the black terrorism completed what the previous regime begun. The aim of this research is to demonstrate the roles and duties of official establishments in Iraq that took in their consideration the treatment of missing persons' files before and after 2003 directly and indirectly. This research is aimed also to demonstrate the role of forensic database management system (FDMS) in determining the numbers of missing persons, and their identification to know their fate.The researcher adopted descriptive and analytic design by using data and information obtained from local and international reports.One of the most important results of this research is the lack of interest from the official establishments that reached the level of ambition about this file, as well as that the presented efforts did not cope with the size of the problem in comparison with other countries that faced a similar one, due to several reasons among them is the lack of solid database about missing persons, and instead of that is the dependence upon appreciation and available limited data in addition to failure to approve and activate the project of the national center for the missing persons, due to legal and technical reasons, and that of FDMS granted to ministry of human rights in Iraq by the international commission on missing persons (ICMP), caused by the absence of financial allocation and the presence of several establishments and temporary committees that deal with that file as a result of absence of strategic vision for the management of such file as what was done in other countries that had passed the same circumstances.The most important recommendations proposed by this research is to use and activate FDMS for the management of missing persons file in Iraq, by creating informative and integrated unified central system for the missing persons in Iraq, that supplied by the latest advanced technology in accordance with the international regulations and standards for the benefits of justice and the families of missing persons in Iraq, whether those of mass graves, wars, and terrorism of all it's forms, through unifying efforts, and to avoid it's distractions in cooperation with the relevant authorities , and to restrict the responsibilities in one establishment, through the creation of the national center for missing persons in Iraq(Baghdad), with other three centers in other provinces to collect data especially after the modification of mass grave protection act, and of the martyrs foundation act in 2015, through cooperation with the medico - legal directorate (MLD) in the ministry of health to check the DNA of missing persons

دور محافظة بابل في تحسين الواقع البيئي : دراسة حالة في مديرية بيئة بابل == The Role of Babil Province On Improving Environmental Reality A Case Study In , Environment Directorate of Babil

Author name: طارق مجيد محمد
Supervisor name: علي حسون فندي الطائي
Specific topic: Local Administration
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: الباحث المهندس طارق مجيد محمد , عنوان بحثي هو دور محافظة بابل في تحسين الواقع البيئي / دراسة حالة في مديرية بيئة بابل , لنيل شهادة الدبلوم العالي في الادارة المحلية , جامعة بغداد , كلية الادارة والاقتصاد.تطرق البحث بداية الى موقع محافظة بابل في وسط العر | First, the research dealt with the site of Babel province in the middle of Iraq that makes it the joint between Sothern provinces and northern provinces via land roads and its influence on the environment of the governorate, flowing of Euphrates within Babel province makes it commercial, agricultural industrial city, increasing of population and its causes that resulted in apparent increase in the social, service and commercial activities and etc., plus to its negative increasing influences against the environment of Babel province and consequently the contamination resulted from different activities. In spite of many rules and instructions that limit the environmental contamination but rates of pollution is in a continuous increasing and for many reasons, to specify these reasons, we have started to study the most environmental problems that Babel province suffers from via detailed arena study to the mechanism of the work of Babel environment directorate included all its sections and departments , and role of each section and its units, then tackled with some troubles and hitches that confront some of these sections and its departments that concern with watching the environmental reality of Babel province and breaches happen by governmental destination or by citizens and punishing the offenders and preventing them from damaging the environment, also making a comparison between these sections and their activities during specific period of this research to specify the reasons behind that contrast, making a list of what have been done of these activities, rules and instructions also how big the gab is in the application of these mechanism of sections and departments and reasons of creation that gap and how to diminish it, the role of the public government in Babel province by its both divisions legislative and implementing via creating a board of protection and improvement the environment to settle these problems through issuing important rules and instructions to protect and maintain environment plus coordinating with Iraqi ministry of health and central government to issue rules and instructions that are out of the authority of Babel environment directorate. The researcher has come up with a bunch of conclusions and recommendations , most important are : 1 - Correlation between Babel environment directorate with Iraqi ministry of health makes the first as a weak watching destination and its rules and instructions are vulnerable, so it's better to disconnect its correlation with the ministry and connect it with the Iraqi council of ministers. 2 - Repeating some topics were discussed in the board of protecting and improvement the environment during the same year and same period of the research and didn’t get solved and stayed unsettled and that requires the support of the local government to the directorate of environment through following up the decisions that being adopted in the sessions of the council of protecting and improvement the environment and settle all related issues which help in the service of the government and environment. 3 - The spreading out of the phenomena of breaches against environmental limits, rules and instructions via publishing variant and numerous rules didn’t have environmental acceptances as that required applying a real study shows reasons behind this phenomena and how to remedy that, considering curing methods and avoid relations and mediations and parties via applying procedures on all individuals without any exceptions. 4 - No serious attempts to find real remedies to the subject of recycling hard and liquid garbage, heading to create recycling and separation factories and make use of these wastes same as third world countries not only like progressed countries. 5 - Don’t neglect sites with biological variety and necessity of coordination with ministry of health to include these sites within natures reserve because it is an environmental wealth, curing the phenomena of desertification through increasing the green lands.

تحديد التوجهات الاستراتيجية لعينة من قائممقاميات محافظة بغداد

Author name: ضحى محمد حميد
Supervisor name: هناء عبد الحسين محيميد الطائي
Specific topic: Strategic Planning
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: يتوقف نجاح او فشل المنظمة على مدى قدرتها على تحقيق رسالتها وغاياتها واهدافها، وهذا يتطلب وضع استراتيجية معينة والسعي لتنفيذها في ظل التغيرات المختلفة المحيطة بالمنظمة.لذا جاءت هذه الدراسة والخاصة بتحديد التوجهات الاستراتيجية لعينة من قائممقاميات محافظة | The success or failure of the organization to the extent of its ability to achieve its mission , goals and objectives , and this requires a certain strategy and seek to implement them under various changes surrounding the organization.So this study and for determining the strategic direction of a sample of Qa?mqamyat governor of Baghdad through the diagnosis and study of reality Alqa?mqamih for a selected sample and diagnosis of strategic directions.The researcher has chosen four Qa?mqamyat in Baghdad province to sample distributed on (18) a person within Alqa?mqamyat were distributed list of polled respondents surveyed about the basic components of the strategic management and strategic analysis of the environment, both internal and external to form a clear picture about the strategic planning process of the sample surveyed.The most important conclusion that was reached : 1 - The lack of a strategy document for the sample surveyed.2 - to execute the business is unplanned and only applications that are offered by the citizens.The most important recommendations that have been reached : 1 - The need to adopt a strategic approach in administrative work through raising awareness of those who work in the existing Mqamih.2 - Study of Strategic Analysis and its components and the degree of influence of each of the elements toward deepening awareness of the practice and the formation of a realistic perception for the sample surveyed is based on scientific grounds

التنبؤ باعداد طلبة المدارس في محافظة بغداد لغاية 2024 == Forecasting Numbers of School Students In Baghdad Province Up To 2024

Author name: صهيب اسماعيل عبد اللطيف
Supervisor name: اسماء نجم عبد الله
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: جميعنا يعلم ان التعليم يبدا من خلال مراحل متعددة والتي تشكل سلسلة زمنية يمكن الاستفادة منها والتنبؤ بها من اجل تحسين وتطوير هذا القطاع المهم, مما لاشك فيه ان للتنبؤ دورا مهما وبارزا في عملية اتخاذ القرارات التي ترسم مسار الادارات والهيئات لما له من نتا | We all know that education starts through multiple stages, which constitute a time series that can be tapped and predictable in order to improve and develop this important sector.There is no doubt that to predict an important and prominent role in the decision - making process that paint departments and agencies track because of its ineffective results, because it contains a range of methods and statistical methods, including the methods, time series analysis and style Box and Jenkins, one of them, which depends on the time series of the phenomenon being studied analysis to provide the so - called autoregressive moving averages models characterized that methodology that can predict the data that appear in the future, based on time series data of interest in the past.The research aims to predict the numbers of school students, and educational supplies to the province of Baghdad, using the best model among the Box _ Jenkins models.The most research data numbers, primary and secondary school students in the province of Baghdad and for the period from 1969 until 2014, equivalent to (45) Show, which build a better model was to predict the numbers of students for both phases (primary, secondary), where the researcher found a better specimen prediction for primary school students was the specimen is ARIMA (1,1,3) the best specimen for secondary students is ARIMA (1,1,0) and through a table predictive values for each of the primary and secondary enables the researcher to assess the educational supplies by developments in the preparation of students increase according to the regulations and instructions of the Ministry of Education.Search was divided into four chapters shows the first chapter introduction research and objective of the research and review Reference The second chapter took the theoretical aspect of identifying the theoretical bases of Box_cengnz models in time - series analysis of either the third quarter included the practical side.Was estimated (the number of people to primary and secondary education, the number of primary and secondary schools, the number of teachers, number of teachers, the number of supervisors, the number of supervisors specialists, the number of school trips, the number of books for primary and secondary).The fourth chapter and the latter is for the conclusions and recommendations reached by the researcher that benefit the sound development of plans for the advancement of the educational sector

ادارة الازمة في محافظة صلاح الدين من وجهة نظر استراتيجية : دراسة حالة

Author name: صفاء احمد محمد الجبوري
Supervisor name: علي حسون فندي الطائي
Specific topic: Strategic Planning
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تضمن البحث التعريف بمفهوم الازمة مراحلها واهم متطلبات ادارتها لغرض تجسيد هذا الاطار النظري ستراتيجيا على ارض الواقع عن طريق وضع ستراتيجية ملائمة لادارة ازمة النزوح في محافظة صلاح الدين لوقف نمو الازمة وتقليل نتائجها السلبية وذلك باعتماد المناهج والاسس | The research includes definition of the concept of crisis stages and the most important management requirements for the purpose of the embodiment of this theoretical framework strategically on the ground by placing the appropriate strategy for the management of the displacement crisis in Salahuddin province to stop the growth of the crisis and minimize the negative consequences and that the adoption of curricula and scientific bases and administrative that limit damage financial crisis, psychological, and social, if not eliminate, and thus the success of the government institution in the performance of their duties and responsibilities towards the community. And highlight the importance of research by shedding light on the administrative aspects plaguing Salahuddin province in the face of the current crisis in order to provide an idea about the two main aspects first : respect of basic services in the province, and the second is linked to the displaced people and returning them, and it was the most important objectives of the study analysis and study the number of displaced as places of displacement and provide visualization on the priorities of their return, as well as determine the budgets required for each sector of the service sectors to promote the reality service as the aim of the research to provide a simplified model for the plan managing the crisis in the province and providing a model for the development of strategies and programs to manage the crisis.

اشكال تمويل الخدمات الصحية العامة في العراق : دراسة تحليلية == Financing Fors For Governmental Health Services In Iraq Analytic Study

Author name: صباح صاحب المستوفي
Supervisor name: محمد علي ابراهيم العامري
Specific topic: Hospital Management
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تناولت هذه الدراسة خيارات تمويل الخدمات الصحية في العراق، اذ بحث الجزء النظري منها الخلفية التاريخية لواقع الخدمات الصحية حيث كان العراق من الدول التي شهدت تحسن في مستوى خدماتها الصحية الا ان هذه الخدمات تدهورت واحد اسباب تدهورها هو شحة التمويل، ولم يستطع | The study discuss financing forms for Iraqi's Health Sector, the 1st part review the main features of the current health situation, during the last period there has been a disastrous decline in people's health because of the shortage of finance.Both the central budget and self - financing (auto - financing) can not improve the level of health financing to increase the health expenditure per capita to the same level in the surrounding countries.The 2nd part of the study analyse the financial data and compare the results with some health statistics as indicators for the level of health services, the result of analysis indicate the need for repair of the health financing system in addition to search for new health financing forms.The main option to raise money for health is to charge patients for health care, charges were the main sources to improve the health system and make users aware of the real costs of health care.To increase the financial risk protection, a high percentage of funding should be prepayment rather than coming from out - of - pocket sources at the point of using health services, so that it is important to ensure that appropriate levels of financing for health sector are included when ever the government prepares it's budgets.Islamic aids as an alternative can contribute to social health insurance funds, a tax on tobacco could be introduced and the proceeds allocated to the health budget on the ground that smoking cause ill health and impose extra costs on the health services

كيفية اعداد خطة استراتيجية لمجلس محافظة الديوانية == How To Prepare A Strategy For The Council of Diwaniyah Plan

Author name: صادق شمخي عبود الزبيدي
Supervisor name: علي حسون فندي الطائي
Specific topic: Local Administration
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: ان الغرض من البحث هو التعرف على كيفية اعداد خطة استراتيجية لمجلس محافظة الديوانية ومدى تطبيق المنهج العلمي الذي يشتمل على التحليل الاستراتيجي للبيئة الخارجية والداخلية ووضع رؤية رسالة واهداف واختيار الاستراتيجيات المناسبة، وقد تمحورت مشكلة البحث في اثارة | The purpose of the research is to recognize the reality of strategic planning in the province of Diwaniyah and the extent of the application of the scientific method, which includes the strategic analysis of the external and internal environment and develop a vision mission and objectives and selection of appropriate strategies. The scientific value is to look at it helps to provide an integrated and coordinated strategy for the provincial council in accordance with the plan on sound scientific grounds. The researcher used in the current research method descriptive and analytical depending on the checklist to see the reality of strategic planning in the province of Diwaniyah, which were distributed to the 24 members have been using statistical methods to analyze the data collected in the light of the answers to the study sample, including the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation as well as highlighting the findings of a researcher is that there tarry in strategic projects adopted by the province and the failure of many of them and in the absence of development. Has been to reach a set of conclusions was the most important of which turned out to be the province of Diwaniyah Council would draft a letter to him explain the unique characteristics and attributes that characterize the rest of the other provincial councils. In the light of the conclusions drafted a set of recommendations, notably should the provincial council set up a strategic information system the task of analyzing the external and internal environment, environment variables as well as he should be on the provincial council promote the positive aspects of the culture and emphasis on the acceptance of a stable change in the board structure to prepare for those changes form in which it contributes in the development of an effective strategy for the Council plan.

تاثير تغير اسعار النفط على موازنة العراق العامة للفترة (2003 - 2014) == The Effect of Changes of Oil Prices By The General Budget For Iraq On Duration (2003 - 2014)

Author name: شيماء محمد احمد
Supervisor name: فارس طاھر حسن الكواز
Specific topic: Applied Statistics
Degree: Higher Diploma
Language: Arabic
University location: Baghdad
First pages:
Abstract: تعتبر الايرادات النفطية والمتمثلة (بايرادات النفط الخام، ايرادات النفط المحلي ) والايرادات غير النفطية والمتمثلة (ايرادات الصناعة والزراعة والتجارة والضرائب وغيرها من الايرادات عدا الايرادات النفطية ) مصادر ممولة لايرادات الموازنة العامة في العراق, حيث ان | It considers oil revenues and of (crude oil revenues, domestic oil revenues) and non - oil revenues and of (industry, agriculture, trade, taxes and other revenue excluding oil revenues, revenues) funded sources of revenue for the general budget in Iraq, where the drop in oil prices has a major impact on oil revenues and therefore It affected the general budget revenues because it is almost entirely dependent on oil revenues. Using multiple linear regression was estimated statistical model for the general budget revenues practically using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (Spss( to see the spirits of each variable and finding the predicted values for the model of the general budget revenue estimates for the period) from 2003 to 2014 (where it was found by the estimates of the budget deficit revenue values public due to lower oil prices.
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