اسم المؤلف:
هديل محمد سلمان الفتلاوي
اسم المشرف:
جواد كاظم البكري
المستخلص:
Since the discovery of oil in commercial quantities early in the fourth decade of the last century, and its plays a key role in the global arena, whether on the economic, political or social side, as the role of traditional energy sources, such as coal, began to decline in favor of mineral fuels (oil and gas). Industrial countries gradually began to rely on oil to run their industrial machine to increase the growth rates of their economies. On the other hand, by the oil exporting countries, the picture was not different, They also relied on oil revenues to increase the growth rates of their economies. However, what distinguishes the oil market is its instability. It is exposed from time to time to shocks, whether positive or negative, as a strategic commodity for both exporting and consuming countries. The instability in this market involves economic reasons related to the demand for oil And its supply, with geopolitical and security reasons in the nature of those shocks in many times. In a careful look at the world oil prices during the period (1990 - 2015), the duration of the study, we find that the prices ranged between (14 - 99) dollars per barrel, which confirms the depth of shocks to the global oil market in two and a half decades, Not to mention the price shocks that preceded this period, which began since the shock of 1973 and will not end with the shock of 2014. Since the oil is one of the lowest cost of energy resources, the reliability of the economies of the exporting countries remains large. These countries rely heavily on oil to finance their budgets, as well as their high contribution to the gross domestic product of these countries. The rate of contribution of oil revenues to GDP has not decreased in the best natural years, except for the years of the economic sanctions, it was (40%), while the Iraqi budgets were adopted In normal years (90%) at best. Of course that led to impact of fluctuations in oil prices on some of the macroeconomic variables in the Iraqi economy, including (GDP, inflation, unemployment and government expenditure), so this thesis was to analyze and measure the impact of oil price shocks on those macroeconomic variables in the Iraqi economy for the period (1990 - 2015) using quantitative methods (econometrics models) to support hypotheses that have been constructed. The importance of the research stems from the fact that it deals with the impact of oil price shocks on some of the macroeconomic variables in the Iraqi economy.The research aims to achieve the following objectives : - Trying to develop a theoretical and conceptual framework for shocks in the various economic schools starting with the classical and ending with rational expectations. - Explain the importance of oil in the Iraqi economy and the reliability of this economy on oil revenues. - Attempt to link between oil revenues and (GDP, unemployment, inflation and government spending) variables in the Iraqi economy. - Measuring the impact of oil price shocks, quantitatively, in some of macroeconomic variables in the Iraqi economy.research Hypothesis : Based on the importance of oil in the Iraqi economy, and the dependence of this economy on oil as a resource of great importance in its revenues, and due to the significant role in economic growth, we can offer the hypothesis of our research as follows : The negative shocks have affected the variables (GDP, unemployment, inflation, government expenditure) according to the logic of economic theory, that it leads to a decline in GDP and government spending, increase unemployment rates and reduce inflation rates . While positive shocks apply to the logic of economic theory for the variables of unemployment and inflation, but do not apply with the logic of economic theory for the variables of GDP and government spending
