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تحليل تكاليف التضخم واثرها على مستويات المعيشة بالعراق للمدة 1990 - 2012 == Analysis of The Cost of Inflation And Its Impact On The Living Standards In Iraq For The Period (1990 - 2012)
Author name:
نجله شمعون شليمون الجلبي
Supervisor name:
نضال شاكر جودت الهاشمي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Master
University:
Mustansiriyah University
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4294 - p.pdf
Abstract:
Inflation is always a challenge for most of the economies of countries in the world, because of its undesirable effects are costs borne by society, and Iraq is one of the countries which suffered from inflationary pressures for several decades. These inflationary pressures borne by members of the Iraqi community in the form of costs, without knowing the amount, size, and in this paper we appreciate using the long - term equilibrium relationship between real cash balance as a percentage of real income (GDP at constant prices), and the price policy rate over time 1990 - 2012, and then we use the estimates derived from the interest rate flexibility, by estimating the long - term equilibrium monetary demand function in the Iraqi economy to derive inflation costs through the use of consumer surplus approach for Bailey (1956), using the econometric technique (method of least squares (OLS) after conducting stationary method, to the variables of money demand function and using the statistical software developer( Eviews 0.3), The total cost value reaches (30.24%) for the annual average inflation and (71.4%). In order to achieve the objectives of the research indicators of living standards in real terms were estimated after testing the stability of the costs of inflation data series, and the average per capita GDP, private consumption spending (family) ,line of absolute poverty, before and after deducting the cost of the ration card, and verify the existence of a common integration relationship. The Research included three chapters. The first chapter discusses the theoretical framework of inflation and costs of living standards, while the second included inflationary environment analysis and indicators of living standards in the Iraqi economy, and divided into two periods the first on since 1990 - 2002,and the second period since 2003 - 2012, and then measuring and estimating the costs of inflation in the Iraqi economy for the period 1990 - 2012. the third chapter also included an analytical framework to measure the impact of inflation on the cost of selected variables to the standard of living in Iraq for the period 1990 - 2012. The measure included the impact of inflation on the cost of living standards formulation variables four equations as living standards adopted in this study using the least squares method, (OLS) ,and using the statistical program (Eviews7. 2012). The research included the most important conclusions that have been reached in addition to the recommendations. The most important conclusions by measuring the costs of inflation in Iraq for the period 1990 - 2012 that the money in the Iraqi economy, in addition to being a necessary commodity for the purposes of the transaction, it is a political commodity as a result of oil export, affected by political situations experienced by, Iraq since 1990 - 2012 and that the annual rate of in inflated costs by (30.24%) ,led to a decline in living standards in the Iraqi economy by (0.164%)&(0.171%) for the period from 1990 to 2012 and this is what led to be the most important recommendations in the search. The money, mainly from oil, in the Iraqi economy, must have a diversity of sources by stimulating economic sectors, so that Iraq becomes a source of goods and services, increased by close to the amount of oil commodity, export and the state has to achieve the security and political stability, because it is the direct cause of the decline in the rate of inflation, and its costs, and thus a rise in the living levels of society, through the transition impact on standards of living variables, and hard work by the state to reduce violence for the purpose of continuing the development process, so that we can improve the lives of Iraqi society level, while the continuation of the Iraqi Central Bank to tackle inflation target (3% - 4%) to remove its the costs imposed on society, through transmissions price used in this direction ,and the need for coordination with macroeconomic policies to ensure an environment conducive to stability and growth.
