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استعمال نموذج قياسي للتنبؤ بالطلب العالمي للنفط الخام في ظل الازمات مع اشارة خاصة للعراق == The Use of A Standard Model To Predict The Global Demand For Crude Oil In The Light of The Crisis (With Particular Reference To Iraq)
Author name:
حاتم كريم بلحاوي القريشي
Supervisor name:
جواد كاظم الموسوي
General topic:
Administration and Economics
Specific topic:
Economy
Degree:
Doctorate
University:
Mustansiriyah University
Language:
Arabic
University location:
Baghdad
First pages:
07T4222 - p.pdf
Abstract:
يعد النفط الخام من السلع الاستراتيجية المهمة التي تتوقف عليها جميع نشاطات القطاعات الاقتصادية على المستوى العالمي لما تتمتع به من مزايا كثيرة بوصفها مصدرا مهما للطاقة , لذا ازدادت اهمية الطلب العالمي على النفط الخام ولهذا جاءت اهمية دراسة التنبؤ بالطلب | The crude oil from the strategic goods the task which depends upon all the activities of the economic sectors at the global level with the many advantages as an important source of energy so increased the importance of global demand for crude oil and this came the importance of forecasting the global demand for oil are the topics of interest of the many researchers and academics as well as international organizations and institutions of what the predictability of giving a clear picture of decision makers in the oil policies at the national and international level and applied side (standard) into the study through the use of several statistical models (the model of linear, model gray boot model sorrow, the model of the steep self - moving averages) and use a researcher of the statistical program EASBRIG(statgraph) was not limited to the study of the world oil market only But shed light on an important aspect of the reality of the Iraqi oil sector where based problem that there are multiple factors affect in determining the quantities required presented in global markets crude oil does not summarize the specific factors in accordance with the logic of economic theory that require a lot of other factors affecting the balance of the world oil market, the most important oil crises and international cuisine during the term (1970 - 2015) and to find an appropriate way to predict the global demand for crude oil until the year (2030) there were also many justifications in choosing the subject of the research, including with respect to the needs of many identifies the most important factors affecting the world demand for oil and the impact of the oil crises and international on world oil markets as well as confirms the assumption that studies of predictive would give a clear picture of the The owners of the economic decision for the future of the world oil market in order to take all necessary and appropriate measures adopted, a researcher of the SNF first research approach (descriptive using inductive reasoning) which explain the foundations of the logic of economic on both sides of the world oil market and focus on the most important factors for the main and secondary stakeholders in global demand for crude oil with reliance on data, indicators and international organization of international energy and OPEC and other data and the second approach (quantifiable) which clarified the statistically the validity of economic theory through showing results and interpretation and analysis based on statistical curriculum adopted the methodology included research questions, including what are the most important factors for the main and secondary stakeholders in defining the balance of international oil market? What is the impact of price fluctuations of crude oil on the economic growth rates of the exporting countries and the importer of crude oil? What is the impact of global crises in determining the balance of the world oil market? In terms of the limits of the study was on two sections of the border is temporal duration (1970 - 2015) the spatial border it includes the balance of the world oil market and balance of the world oil market and the reality of the oil market and the structure of the Iraqi search included four main chapters each chapter contained three detectives and requests the divided into the demands and to give a detailed picture of the subject of the study study concluded a set of conclusions and recommendations is the most important. 1 - There are several factors that determine the required amounts presented of crude oil which applies with the logic of economic including what was outside the logic of economic theory such as geopolitical oil crises and international cuisine. 2 - Forecasting is the global demand of crude oil from the important topics which gives a clear reference to decision makers and the resolution of the Economic Future action suitable for nappy the balance of both sides of the world oil market. 3 - The coordination of oil policies at the level of the OPEC countries and senior oil producers in the world for Diaper rash to export quotas and oil policies appropriate the stability of crude oil prices and thus the stability of the world oil market
